Hogwarts Mafia - END

[Sloonei]

Mondays are terrible for me and this Monday is particularly terrible. I’ll be in class when the deadline happens and probably will hardly check in again. I don’t feel inclined to lynch colin. I’ve seen some talk about mac but I haven’t actually looked into it myself. I like my vote on timmed and it’ll stay there for now. I doubt it gets changed before the deadline.

[timmer]

Would a civ Owner make up a complete bullshit phantom case on day 1? I don't know her. Anyone? Cuz reading that case against dh was just... it's so bad.

[DharmaHelper]

Here's my GTH list. Throwing this out so I can start to organize my thoughts:
Owner/Sloonei - good
Epignosis - good
JaggedJimmyJay - good
JackOfHearts - good
Quin - good
Bullzeye/Speedchuck - good
Kara - good
Timmer - good
Poutanko - good
ColinIsCool - bad
Sprityo - bad
nutella - bad
MacDougal - bad
Glorf - bad
DharmaHelper - bad

I don't want to sound like a No-U, but.....

Why am I on the very bottom of your list my friend.

[DharmaHelper]

Would a civ Owner make up a complete bullshit phantom case on day 1? I don't know her. Anyone? Cuz reading that case against dh was just... it's so bad.

I'm gonna go read jack now but I have already stated that I think Owner's case on me was B.S and that she made it up and that she made her Kara suspicion up as well.

[timmer]

Would a civ Owner make up a complete bullshit phantom case on day 1? I don't know her. Anyone? Cuz reading that case against dh was just... it's so bad.

My point is owner was saved last minute by long con. Blatantly. And owner was my first scumread of sorts in the game. Considering how awful that day 1 content reads, and the lynch results... should we maybe look at rehashing that lynch idea with her replacement?

[nutella]

Here's my GTH list. Throwing this out so I can start to organize my thoughts:
Owner/Sloonei - good
Epignosis - good
JaggedJimmyJay - good
JackOfHearts - good
Quin - good
Bullzeye/Speedchuck - good
Kara - good
Timmer - good
Poutanko - good
ColinIsCool - bad
Sprityo - bad
nutella - bad
MacDougal - bad
Glorf - bad
DharmaHelper - bad

And long con??

[timmer]

Would a civ Owner make up a complete bullshit phantom case on day 1? I don't know her. Anyone? Cuz reading that case against dh was just... it's so bad.

I'm gonna go read jack now but I have already stated that I think Owner's case on me was B.S and that she made it up and that she made her Kara suspicion up as well.

Exactly! So (partly due to my shit ) I feel like maybe we've gotten turned around from the kind of obvious lynch choice, here.

[nutella]

Mondays are terrible for me and this Monday is particularly terrible. I’ll be in class when the deadline happens and probably will hardly check in again. I don’t feel inclined to lynch colin. I’ve seen some talk about mac but I haven’t actually looked into it myself. I like my vote on timmed and it’ll stay there for now. I doubt it gets changed before the deadline.

You have missed some developments in the timmer department my friend.

[Glorfindel]

@nutella Have you had a scum game more recent than Fire Emblem?
@Glorfindel I'd like to see a scum game of yours. Don't really care who points me to it.

Currently leaning more town on Nutella than before, based on the past few pages of content.

@speedchuck: viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1161

It’s 3:40 am - I’m going back to bed. G’night!

[timmer]

I've put my vote on owner/sloonei for now. There is absolutely nothing good in owner's day 1, and that lynch result was suspect.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've put my vote on owner/sloonei for now. There is absolutely nothing good in owner's day 1, and that lynch result was suspect.

My doubts on this read stem primarily from INH's treatment of Owner. To me it looked like he was trying to make her look like a doofus for the way she was handling DH, in such a way that it was opportunistic (rather than distancing).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Indeed I think INH was quite content to lynch Owner on Day 1 when we know the counterwagon was a civilian.

[Lunalee]

I have a pretty bad feeling about Glorfindel. He hasn't said anything that that makes him look like a "lock town" who is trying to find baddies. Day 1, Glorf voted for Quin bacause of his "tone." He stayed on Quin while completely ignoring the Owner vs. Turnip Head trains, which ultimately led to TH, a civilian, getting lynched.
He ignored the suggestion for everyone to post "I am town" for a truth checker to have more to work with.
He replied with this sad, emotional plea to Colin's suggestion that we ask Glorf if he's bad:

So who’s going to ask Glorfindel if he’s bad?

To be honest, this whole mess had completely slipped my mind. It’s hard for me to know what to do here - do I refuse to answer and get lynched by a rabid Town or answer it and put a target on my back Night 1? Either way, I guess it suggests a short stay for me this game...

*rainbow list amendment, if Glorf is bad, I don't think Colin is too*
It takes until day 3 for him to throw out some reads. He town reads Jay and MacDougal, and scum-reads Long Con, Quin, JackofHearts, Nutella, and Epi The post here is quite long, and he uses a lot of " Doesn't look genuine," and "I'm not convinced language," which is okay for some, but to me it looks like he left room in almost every read for him to backpedal if needed.

Reason I'm okay with pushing a Glorf lynch is because if he is town, he won't let us lynch him without saying so. Otherwise, it's day 3, and we will have finally lynched our first scum.

[speedchuck]

If I recall correctly, Slowner has good INH interactions and a very interesting EOD1 vs TH. She refused to vote in self-preservation.

While I (of course) think those D1 cases were bogus, I thought the same thing in Firefly and she was town. Owner scumhunts differently than I'm accustomed to, but IDK if that means she was bad.

I'd like those voting for her to address the EOD and/or those INH-interactions.

linki:

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Dragon D. Luffy Are you going to reassign the houses like Daisy reassigned the ships once a house no longer has enough members to be competitive in the Cup?

That won't be necessary, house points are readjusted when their members die.

Like, right now Gryffindor members get double points since half their players are dead.

[speedchuck]

He ignored the suggestion for everyone to post "I am town" for a truth checker to have more to work with.
He replied with this sad, emotional plea to Colin's suggestion that we ask Glorf if he's bad:

So who’s going to ask Glorfindel if he’s bad?

To be honest, this whole mess had completely slipped my mind. It’s hard for me to know what to do here - do I refuse to answer and get lynched by a rabid Town or answer it and put a target on my back Night 1? Either way, I guess it suggests a short stay for me this game...

Reason I'm okay with pushing a Glorf lynch is because if he is town, he won't let us lynch him without saying so.

Ew no.

It kinda ruins the game for Glorf to town-claim or not town-claim. It's a dick move by all accounts, and it's been encountered in several games.

We aren't pushing Glorf into claiming. Leave that out of any cases you make.

[Lunalee]

Here's my GTH list. Throwing this out so I can start to organize my thoughts:
Owner/Sloonei - good
Epignosis - good
JaggedJimmyJay - good
JackOfHearts - good
Quin - good
Bullzeye/Speedchuck - good
Kara - good
Timmer - good
Poutanko - good
ColinIsCool - bad
Sprityo - bad
nutella - bad
MacDougal - bad
Glorf - bad
DharmaHelper - bad

And long con??

Oh shoot. How did I miss Long Con?
Long Con - good

[Lunalee]

He ignored the suggestion for everyone to post "I am town" for a truth checker to have more to work with.
He replied with this sad, emotional plea to Colin's suggestion that we ask Glorf if he's bad:

So who’s going to ask Glorfindel if he’s bad?

To be honest, this whole mess had completely slipped my mind. It’s hard for me to know what to do here - do I refuse to answer and get lynched by a rabid Town or answer it and put a target on my back Night 1? Either way, I guess it suggests a short stay for me this game...

Reason I'm okay with pushing a Glorf lynch is because if he is town, he won't let us lynch him without saying so.

Ew no.

It kinda ruins the game for Glorf to town-claim or not town-claim. It's a dick move by all accounts, and it's been encountered in several games.

We aren't pushing Glorf into claiming. Leave that out of any cases you make.

Claiming argument aside, what has Glorf done to convince you he's town?

[speedchuck]

Dragon D. Luffy Are you going to reassign the houses like Daisy reassigned the ships once a house no longer has enough members to be competitive in the Cup?

That won't be necessary, house points are readjusted when their members die.

Like, right now Gryffindor members get double points since half their players are dead.

*lone house member votes to lynch mafia, gets an obscene number of points*

Yep this is Harry Potter alright

[timmer]

If I recall correctly, Slowner has good INH interactions and a very interesting EOD1 vs TH. She refused to vote in self-preservation.

While I (of course) think those D1 cases were bogus, I thought the same thing in Firefly and she was town. Owner scumhunts differently than I'm accustomed to, but IDK if that means she was bad.

I'd like those voting for her to address the EOD and/or those INH-interactions.

linki:

Ok that's 2 of you, I will go reread.

[ColinIsCool]

Town: DH, timmer, Jay, Epi, Glorf, Sloonei

Luna and LC are baddies

Later nerds

[speedchuck]

Claiming argument aside, what has Glorf done to convince you he's town?

Nothing really.

I don't care if you make a Glorf case. He doesn't look great. Just leave out the claiming bit.

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

[Lunalee]

Claiming argument aside, what has Glorf done to convince you he's town?

Nothing really.

I don't care if you make a Glorf case. He doesn't look great. Just leave out the claiming bit.

Okay, I don't like Glorf's fluffy reads, so I'm voting for him.

[DharmaHelper]

Jack Attack-

D1 - Opens with Soneji vote for a fun, silly reason. Lots of focus on the Houses. Says he wants to get all the Hallows. Goofy joke-meta read on me. Votes for LC to try and snake a Hallow, forgetting that Days are 48 Hours. Prods Colin a bit to name Jay's hypothetical teammates.

D2 - Null Read on Jay. Says that Lap gets mislynched sometimes, and that she's quiet. Could be defending her. Keeps asking to be masoned. Offers a thought on Glor being scum with one of Jay, LC, Quin, or Kyle. Pinged by Luna's misrepresentation of what TH said RE: lynching people on D1. Circles back to Glorfindel being "worried" about that Mac post. Scum reads Jay for paragon-ing D1's importance. Says Mac is "too quiet" to be mafia. Goes at Glorf for his Juliets post here Backs off Lunalee. Votes Glorf. Defends his Glorf Vote pretty heavily from Glorf. Parrots Timmer to justify a Soneji vote. Says he'd rather lynch Soneji or INH over Luna/Bullz/Owner. Says INH looks "kinda suspect" Could be INH distancing.

D3 -

[quote] But I ain't no death eater.[/url] - If we're looking for a 3p based on Timmergate.


Thinks either Owner, Glorf, or Jay is teamed with INH. Thinks there's only one wolf among Luna/Glorf/Owner. Says nutella is making up her suspicions. Goes back and forth a bit on what looks good/bad for Nutella. Essentially Townreading Luna. Says he still suspects Glorf. Votes Nutella. Corrects LC's sloppy "townslip" RE: Sloonei. Defends Mac from Jay/Nutella.

Overall, I'm leaning bad on Jack after this read through. Why vote Soneji if you're so convinced Glorf is bad? Why vote Nutella? Consistently in Jack's suspects, Glorf pops up, but he's only pulled the trigger on that once, and it looks more to me like the other players he talks about (Owner, Jay, Luna, Nutella) are just there as buffer/filler.

[DharmaHelper]

Oops fam I fucked up the quote tags.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't trust any of the four voters for Colin.

[Long Con]

Long Con:

Spoiler: show

D1 - Fun, Goofy, Aloofy. Some mechanics talk, Defensive about his mechanics talk, Defends Owner over the DH/DA distinction saying he too mixed them up. Reads TH/Luna as W/W. Votes TH, Looking for Hallows.

D2 - Uses Nova's Death to ping Jay immediately. Agrees w/ Jay about Bullz nova vote. Big post detailing thoughts on Luna. Defends Owner again, but agrees that Epi is a null read.

This jumps out at me. Here LC is talking to Kara about Kara's Day 1 Owner suspicion(s) but lack of an Owner vote:

If Owner turns up scum, then that looks bad on you: to say she really looks like scum, but stop short of casting a clinching vote for an Owner lynch.

This quote here really gets my dogs barking. Setting up a patsy for "If Owner [ever] flips scum" combined with LC's defending Owner a few times already...

How strong does your case feel if Slowner is town?

Well considering his defense of Owner, and his jumping on Kara with the "if Owner is scum" thing and his thought that Sloonei townslipped, if you take all those away I still don't like his

1) Hunting for Hallows/TH vote
2) Backing off Luna based on Jay/Nut
3) His flip on Timmer with the Adolf tell or w/e that he backed away from pretty quckly felt like he was working a bit too hard to make something click there.

So I'd say I feel (right now, all things included) 65-70% confident in the LC case, but take the Owner stuff out and I'm somewhere in the range of 55-60%

1. I went for the Hallows. It's not because I'm bad, it's because I wanted the Hallows. My TH vote wasn't about saving Owner, really, it was about which one of the two I suspected more.
2. Meh. So I didn't act solely on my own brilliant game solution that time. I don't think it's that uncommon to agree with something someone else says.
3. I don't think I understand this one. Is this about threatening to vote Timmer over his fetish for chunks of human flesh?

[DharmaHelper]

#3 - LC, you did a big ol' post about how flakey/wishy-washy Timmer's posts were, and how he was trying to say something that everyone could agree with. And then you backed off of it.

[speedchuck]

I don't trust any of the four voters for Colin.

Their judgement or alignment?

[timmer]

Okay, I see what you guys are seeing regarding inh and owner. He pushed pretty hard considering how much attention owner was getting, that'd be surprising against a teammate.

Those posts make me feel good about Luna, as well.

[Long Con]

#3 - LC, you did a big ol' post about how flakey/wishy-washy Timmer's posts were, and how he was trying to say something that everyone could agree with. And then you backed off of it.

I was drinking last night, but I think that wasn't me. Get me on your page here, please.

[Jackofhearts2005]

- This is not a bastard game, so I will not lie to you. However, it is possible for abilities that obtain information to be fooled.

Screw all of last night's foolishness you dillweeds.

INH was scum. Nova was scum. DDL does not lie to us publicly, as said above. These were reveals, not cop checks or ability related info.

10 points to Hufflepuff.

Agreed.

And 10 points to GD for no good reason, as is tradition.

[Long Con]

#3 - LC, you did a big ol' post about how flakey/wishy-washy Timmer's posts were, and how he was trying to say something that everyone could agree with. And then you backed off of it.

I was drinking last night, but I think that wasn't me. Get me on your page here, please.

Dude, do you mean this post?

[DharmaHelper]

Skimming through to catch up... Mac's focus on the chance that we are not in fact down two dead baddies is interesting, to say the least, but I'm not sure where to go with it . I'll admit I'm at a loss in the game right now... my suspicions have flopped, my thoughts on lc last night make no sense to me now, I'm going to watch the pats/packers game and then regroup later tonight.

Let's start here and go backwards, because starting at the beginning of Day 0 or whatever is lame because posts back then are extra-fluffy and hard to judge. This is the post Mac called out the Hitler tell on. I don't really see the positive/negative thing that is the basis of the 'tell', because I don't see anything I'd rate "positive" or "negative". Pretty uniformly grey, so I don't understand how Mac decided to apply it.

But now, with Timmer's "The only useful thing I can tell you is that there really may be something to the idea that the dead baddies aren't necessarily bad."... I mean, that is ALMOST a contrast to what he said earlier, "Mac's focus on the chance that we are not in fact down two dead baddies is interesting, to say the least, but I'm not sure where to go with it ". I say 'almost' because I now see that it's only a contrast when I put my own spin on what Timmer was saying earlier. I took it to mean "I don't know what this is, but it has my interest", but I guess it could mean "I'm interested because I have a knowledge-angle on this same thing".

This disrupted my thing I was doing, so I'll post it now.

[DharmaHelper]

#3 - LC, you did a big ol' post about how flakey/wishy-washy Timmer's posts were, and how he was trying to say something that everyone could agree with. And then you backed off of it.

I was drinking last night, but I think that wasn't me. Get me on your page here, please.

Dude, do you mean this post?

And that yes.

[Long Con]

Well, you aren't reading that closely if you think I talked about Timmer's posts being flakey or wishy-washy. Read again and highlight.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@nutella Have you had a scum game more recent than Fire Emblem?
@Glorfindel I'd like to see a scum game of yours. Don't really care who points me to it.

Currently leaning more town on Nutella than before, based on the past few pages of content.

No I'm pretty sure that was the last one.

Thanks. That was a good game.

[nutella]

It's not because I'm bad,

So what is?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I am never going to find this case on Jack unless the person who made the case finds it for me, sorry. This thread is too big.

The case is I’m not trying hard enough to be town Jack.

*jerk off motion*

[Long Con]

It's not because I'm bad,

So what is?

Nothing is because I'm bad, nut. Because I am not bad. Also your logic on that one was primo garbo.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't trust any of the four voters for Colin.

Their judgement or alignment?

The latter

[DharmaHelper]

Well, you aren't reading that closely if you think I talked about Timmer's posts being flakey or wishy-washy. Read again and highlight.

I may have read that a bit too quickly and responded a bit too quickly. Digesting it a bit more here's what I come away with:

- Forget the Adolf Tell thing, I saw the green/red positive negative in your post and that flipped a switch for me, but that's not accurate.

- Re-Reading it, your smaller post is you talking yourself in a bit of a circle trying to fit into Mac's thinking RE: the Tell. You specifically cite Timmer's "there may be something to the dead not flipping correctly" post, but then admit that it's probably nothing based on your own "spin". Then your big post is you looking through Timmer's posts for positive/negative stuff. You start off civ reading for the most part, and then at the bottom you find a post that "has some positive/negative contrasts", but you qualify THAT by putting context on it. You end thinking Timmer looks "legit".

[Long Con]

Well, you aren't reading that closely if you think I talked about Timmer's posts being flakey or wishy-washy. Read again and highlight.

I may have read that a bit too quickly and responded a bit too quickly. Digesting it a bit more here's what I come away with:

- Forget the Adolf Tell thing, I saw the green/red positive negative in your post and that flipped a switch for me, but that's not accurate.

- Re-Reading it, your smaller post is you talking yourself in a bit of a circle trying to fit into Mac's thinking RE: the Tell. You specifically cite Timmer's "there may be something to the dead not flipping correctly" post, but then admit that it's probably nothing based on your own "spin". Then your big post is you looking through Timmer's posts for positive/negative stuff. You start off civ reading for the most part, and then at the bottom you find a post that "has some positive/negative contrasts", but you qualify THAT by putting context on it. You end thinking Timmer looks "legit".

That is a far more accurate account than your first "attempt".

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.

[nutella]

[VOTE: jaggedjimmyjay] aubergine

[DharmaHelper]

Anyway I've gotta eat and do stuff and play RDR2 so good luck have fun.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Spoiler: show

Jack Attack-

D1 - Opens with Soneji vote for a fun, silly reason. Lots of focus on the Houses. Says he wants to get all the Hallows. Goofy joke-meta read on me. Votes for LC to try and snake a Hallow, forgetting that Days are 48 Hours. Prods Colin a bit to name Jay's hypothetical teammates.

D2 - Null Read on Jay. Says that Lap gets mislynched sometimes, and that she's quiet. Could be defending her. Keeps asking to be masoned. Offers a thought on Glor being scum with one of Jay, LC, Quin, or Kyle. Pinged by Luna's misrepresentation of what TH said RE: lynching people on D1. Circles back to Glorfindel being "worried" about that Mac post. Scum reads Jay for paragon-ing D1's importance. Says Mac is "too quiet" to be mafia. Goes at Glorf for his Juliets post here Backs off Lunalee. Votes Glorf. Defends his Glorf Vote pretty heavily from Glorf. Parrots Timmer to justify a Soneji vote. Says he'd rather lynch Soneji or INH over Luna/Bullz/Owner. Says INH looks "kinda suspect" Could be INH distancing.

D3 -

But I ain't no death eater.[/url] - If we're looking for a 3p based on Timmergate.


Thinks either Owner, Glorf, or Jay is teamed with INH. Thinks there's only one wolf among Luna/Glorf/Owner. Says nutella is making up her suspicions. Goes back and forth a bit on what looks good/bad for Nutella. Essentially Townreading Luna. Says he still suspects Glorf. Votes Nutella. Corrects LC's sloppy "townslip" RE: Sloonei. Defends Mac from Jay/Nutella.

Overall, I'm leaning bad on Jack after this read through. Why vote Soneji if you're so convinced Glorf is bad? Why vote Nutella? Consistently in Jack's suspects, Glorf pops up, but he's only pulled the trigger on that once, and it looks more to me like the other players he talks about (Owner, Jay, Luna, Nutella) are just there as buffer/filler.

I’m not so damn convinced Glor is bad. His self defense was just so damn weak.

If I had to bet the game on Glor or Nutella being bad, I’m voting Nutella. Sonjei was lynchable. Glor was not. I’m not one to leave lone protest votes at EOD. I don’t vote Green Party.

[Long Con]

I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.

But you said nice things about me in that post.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And it’s a nice easy pitch right over the plate....

Spoiler: show

Here's how it went down from my perspective, one mental state at a time.

1. Bullzeye voted for nova.
2. Timmer and a few others found Bullzeye's vote extremely suspicious.
3. Nova was killed and flipped bad.
4. Some people (myself included) suspect Bullzeye even more, thinking that he placed a vote on a teammate.
5. Timmer comes out with a 180 on Bullzeye, calling him his top civ read after the events of the night but not due to a cop check.
6. I look at the list of abilities to see what might explain this that's not cop-ish per se. I notice the one that tracks which player a player targeted, and it occurs to me that perhaps Bullzeye vigged nova since he presumably suspected him, and perhaps timmer tracked Bullzeye since he suspected him, and saw that he targeted nova, and is now townclearing Bullzeye as the vig.
7. I accept this and decide to townread both bullzeye and timmer based on this interpretation.
8. The topic comes up again and Jay questions how timmer could know anything and says that he blocked timmer.
9. I say "wouldn't he not have gotten a result at all if he were blocked?"
10. That turns out to be moot as timmer admits that it was not based on anything he did at all, it was just based on something that happened (i.e. nova's death).
11. I figure that timmer had just made an educated guess that bullzeye vigged nova and decided to townclear him. Since it made so much sense to me when I was investigating back when I thought timmer actually knew something, I figured that I still believed it made sense even though it turned out timmer didn't actually know, and I continued to agree with timmer/believe that bullzeye killed nova.
12. For a while I still figured that this looked good for timmer. I no longer feel like I have much justification for that; he could easily have scum motivation for pulling his 180 on bullzeye in the way that he did.

So by “nobody refuted” you mean “Timmer directly refuted this idea I came up with in my head that nobody else was aware of?”