Hogwarts Mafia - END

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.

But you said nice things about me in that post.

Right. Those are doubts about lynching you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: jaggedjimmyjay] aubergine

nerd

[speedchuck]

I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.

But you said nice things about me in that post.

Right. Those are doubts about lynching you.

Those are pretty good doubts though

[speedchuck]

And it’s a nice easy pitch right over the plate....

Spoiler: show

Here's how it went down from my perspective, one mental state at a time.

1. Bullzeye voted for nova.
2. Timmer and a few others found Bullzeye's vote extremely suspicious.
3. Nova was killed and flipped bad.
4. Some people (myself included) suspect Bullzeye even more, thinking that he placed a vote on a teammate.
5. Timmer comes out with a 180 on Bullzeye, calling him his top civ read after the events of the night but not due to a cop check.
6. I look at the list of abilities to see what might explain this that's not cop-ish per se. I notice the one that tracks which player a player targeted, and it occurs to me that perhaps Bullzeye vigged nova since he presumably suspected him, and perhaps timmer tracked Bullzeye since he suspected him, and saw that he targeted nova, and is now townclearing Bullzeye as the vig.
7. I accept this and decide to townread both bullzeye and timmer based on this interpretation.
8. The topic comes up again and Jay questions how timmer could know anything and says that he blocked timmer.
9. I say "wouldn't he not have gotten a result at all if he were blocked?"
10. That turns out to be moot as timmer admits that it was not based on anything he did at all, it was just based on something that happened (i.e. nova's death).
11. I figure that timmer had just made an educated guess that bullzeye vigged nova and decided to townclear him. Since it made so much sense to me when I was investigating back when I thought timmer actually knew something, I figured that I still believed it made sense even though it turned out timmer didn't actually know, and I continued to agree with timmer/believe that bullzeye killed nova.
12. For a while I still figured that this looked good for timmer. I no longer feel like I have much justification for that; he could easily have scum motivation for pulling his 180 on bullzeye in the way that he did.

So by “nobody refuted” you mean “Timmer directly refuted this idea I came up with in my head that nobody else was aware of?”

Nutella in this game has made brazen jumps in logic, weird accusations, waffles with maple bacon, and been weirdly aggro about it the whole time.
Do you associate that with a town or mafia strategy?
Do you associate that with a town or mafia nutella?

I was reading her as scum until I stopped and thought about it (and skimmed some of Fire Emblem).

[speedchuck]

This is Yun Qui nutella but without the unbreakable townread on anyone. Is it not?

[Long Con]

I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.

But you said nice things about me in that post.

Right. Those are doubts about lynching you.

Oh, okay. I thought it was doubts about my Civviness.

[Long Con]

This is Yun Qui nutella but without the unbreakable townread on anyone. Is it not?

Missed that game, what does that mean about her?

[Jackofhearts2005]

And it’s a nice easy pitch right over the plate....

Spoiler: show

Here's how it went down from my perspective, one mental state at a time.

1. Bullzeye voted for nova.
2. Timmer and a few others found Bullzeye's vote extremely suspicious.
3. Nova was killed and flipped bad.
4. Some people (myself included) suspect Bullzeye even more, thinking that he placed a vote on a teammate.
5. Timmer comes out with a 180 on Bullzeye, calling him his top civ read after the events of the night but not due to a cop check.
6. I look at the list of abilities to see what might explain this that's not cop-ish per se. I notice the one that tracks which player a player targeted, and it occurs to me that perhaps Bullzeye vigged nova since he presumably suspected him, and perhaps timmer tracked Bullzeye since he suspected him, and saw that he targeted nova, and is now townclearing Bullzeye as the vig.
7. I accept this and decide to townread both bullzeye and timmer based on this interpretation.
8. The topic comes up again and Jay questions how timmer could know anything and says that he blocked timmer.
9. I say "wouldn't he not have gotten a result at all if he were blocked?"
10. That turns out to be moot as timmer admits that it was not based on anything he did at all, it was just based on something that happened (i.e. nova's death).
11. I figure that timmer had just made an educated guess that bullzeye vigged nova and decided to townclear him. Since it made so much sense to me when I was investigating back when I thought timmer actually knew something, I figured that I still believed it made sense even though it turned out timmer didn't actually know, and I continued to agree with timmer/believe that bullzeye killed nova.
12. For a while I still figured that this looked good for timmer. I no longer feel like I have much justification for that; he could easily have scum motivation for pulling his 180 on bullzeye in the way that he did.

So by “nobody refuted” you mean “Timmer directly refuted this idea I came up with in my head that nobody else was aware of?”

Nutella in this game has made brazen jumps in logic, weird accusations, waffles with maple bacon, and been weirdly aggro about it the whole time.
Do you associate that with a town or mafia strategy?
Do you associate that with a town or mafia nutella?

I was reading her as scum until I stopped and thought about it (and skimmed some of Fire Emblem).

It’s not a strategy. It’s a side effect.

Tell me about FE Nutella.

[speedchuck]

This is Yun Qui nutella but without the unbreakable townread on anyone. Is it not?

Missed that game, what does that mean about her?

I specifically remember Nutella being super aggressive in that game and waffling on and off whether she thought I was scum. I was not alone in that position, I don't think.

She also read TH as good no matter what even when he was bad. She picked out the rest of the scum team pretty well in late game.

[speedchuck]

Tell me about FE Nutella.

I'll get you some, hold up.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]

Talk to me about LC while you’re at it.

[DharmaHelper]

If a nutella wagon forms out of EOD madness I won't be mad at it

[speedchuck]

Tell me about FE Nutella.

Her ISO from that game.

Actually why don't you give me a skim tone read, just over a page or so. Validate me. I just thought of something I want to add, but I want thoughts on this really quick before I mention it.

[speedchuck]

speedchuck

Talk to me about LC while you’re at it.

That's not exactly a solo moi suspicion. Others have stated it first, and I'm a caboose on this train.

After JJJ brought up the INH-vote-and-salad stuff I'm looking to move.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I trust Long Con less than I did when the day began. Whatever doubts I have stem from here. Someone argue with those points while I am in class.

But you said nice things about me in that post.

Right. Those are doubts about lynching you.

Those are pretty good doubts though

why he die den

[JaggedJimmyJay]

o u lookin 2 move mk

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Dragon D. Luffy Are you going to reassign the houses like Daisy reassigned the ships once a house no longer has enough members to be competitive in the Cup?

That won't be necessary, house points are readjusted when their members die.

Like, right now Gryffindor members get double points since half their players are dead.

*lone house member votes to lynch mafia, gets an obscene number of points*

Yep this is Harry Potter alright

This scenario is why I added that patch to prevent consecutive wins yesterday.

That said by the time we get there chances are House Cups will not be happening anymore.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Solid civ
Luna
Mac

Likely civ
Slowner
Colin

Lean civ
DH
Jay
Speed
Epi
Quin
Timmer

Toss up
Pout
LC
Kara
Laprityo

Lean scum
Glor

Likely scum
Nutella

Solid scum


Margin of error is 20%.

This rainbow list has been brought to you by the Cook Political Report.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Something something green wave.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

*pokes sprityo really hard with a pitchfork*

[Jackofhearts2005]

speedchuck

Talk to me about LC while you’re at it.

That's not exactly a solo moi suspicion. Others have stated it first, and I'm a caboose on this train.

After JJJ brought up the INH-vote-and-salad stuff I'm looking to move.

I know but I want to know why you’re voting for him.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like I know about DH’s case. Not that you were about to move.

[speedchuck]

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.

[speedchuck]

Laprityo

It's LIT YO

[Jackofhearts2005]

Tell me about FE Nutella.

Her ISO from that game.

Actually why don't you give me a skim tone read, just over a page or so. Validate me. I just thought of something I want to add, but I want thoughts on this really quick before I mention it.

I read page 1 and page 5 and I got nothing.

Def not so jumpy tho.

[speedchuck]

[mention]nutella[/mention] Why did you vote JJJ?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jackofhearts2005

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.

Can you be more specific about the suspicions you agreed with?

[speedchuck]

Jackofhearts2005

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I feel better about Owner than Long Con.

I was doubting Owner at the time, and buying some of the suspicions on LC/Glorf/Owner/Jack that have been made on the page prior to this vote.

Owner was linked to LC, but I thought Owner more likely town than LC. I threw a vote down to unravel that puzzle. Both have gone up in my estimation since then, as I looked back to see why I townread Owner and JJJ brought up LC things.

Can you be more specific about the suspicions you agreed with?

I'm trying to move on. Go back and read the stuff. I replied to DH and told him what I agreed with and disagreed with even.

[Lunalee]

Town: DH, timmer, Jay, Epi, Glorf, Sloonei

Luna and LC are baddies

Later nerds

...because I think he's town when there's currently a majority vote on him? I've looked back over Long Con's posts, and nothing he's said sticks out to me as "bad"

[nutella]

@nutella Why did you vote JJJ?

I haven't liked his behavior this phase. He's mostly gone on about lynching sprityo for not participating and only now deciding to change his tune on LC as a more present and popular suspect. This combined with my earlier criticism/skepticism of his interactive read results makes me feel fishy things about him.

[speedchuck]

Tell me about FE Nutella.

Her ISO from that game.

Actually why don't you give me a skim tone read, just over a page or so. Validate me. I just thought of something I want to add, but I want thoughts on this really quick before I mention it.

I read page 1 and page 5 and I got nothing.

Def not so jumpy tho.

It's the language used. A lot more "idk" and "I think" and such. Much less aggressive than in this game.

Plus this:

I like nutella here and now, but I'm approaching Day 3 as if it's Day 1. Days 1 & 2 are a blind spot to me.

I've had her as one of my bigger civilian reads for much of the game, so now there's a clash of face-value appearance and interactive data. I feel pretty comfortable turning on her though, because the meta on which she thrives is not one which demands much challenge in mimicry. Change your mind a lot and be curt in your reads.

I have the 3rd highest post count. you of all people should realize that I would not be capable of that as scum. and no, I'm not dunya-ing you. I've posted with a degree of carefree abandon that I can't imagine approaching if I were bad.

I don't like this JJJ read much, and Nutella's response rings true.
FE nutella (evil) - 40 posts per day/night phase.
HW nutella - 80 posts per day/night phase (even though night 3 hasn't started, so it's really 2.5 phases)

And nutella's posts are pretty content-laced in this game.

... lol FE didn't have night posts.
It's still a relevant point, just not quite as strong.

[speedchuck]

@nutella Why did you vote JJJ?

I haven't liked his behavior this phase. He's mostly gone on about lynching sprityo for not participating and only now deciding to change his tune on LC as a more present and popular suspect. This combined with my earlier criticism/skepticism of his interactive read results makes me feel fishy things about him.

What do you think of his early INH interactions? Planned distance/bus?

[nutella]

@nutella Why did you vote JJJ?

I haven't liked his behavior this phase. He's mostly gone on about lynching sprityo for not participating and only now deciding to change his tune on LC as a more present and popular suspect. This combined with my earlier criticism/skepticism of his interactive read results makes me feel fishy things about him.

What do you think of his early INH interactions? Planned distance/bus?

Could be. I don't have strong arguments either way but I don't doubt that he's capable of that.

[speedchuck]

@nutella Why did you vote JJJ?

I haven't liked his behavior this phase. He's mostly gone on about lynching sprityo for not participating and only now deciding to change his tune on LC as a more present and popular suspect. This combined with my earlier criticism/skepticism of his interactive read results makes me feel fishy things about him.

What do you think of his early INH interactions? Planned distance/bus?

Could be. I don't have strong arguments either way but I don't doubt that he's capable of that.

If you don't have arguments then why vote there?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't like this JJJ read much, and Nutella's response rings true.
FE nutella (evil) - 40 posts per day/night phase.
HW nutella - 80 posts per day/night phase (even though night 3 hasn't started, so it's really 2.5 phases)

And nutella's posts are pretty content-laced in this game.

... lol FE didn't have night posts.
It's still a relevant point, just not quite as strong.

Bleh. dunya's mafioso posting rates pre-FE were never remotely close to what they were in FE, and you know first-hand where that sort of rationale got me. nutella has constructed a meta for herself which is easier to replicate than many other high-effort metas, because she doesn't bear the same responsibilities to explain herself thoroughly as would the likes of a Sloonei or a me. I think it's a mistake from this point until forever to be comfortable with nutella just because of her willingness to jump around. It's the same reason it's a mistake to be comfortable with Jack or Mac for screwing off for entire cycles. The benefit they enjoy is that it isn't especially difficult to do the same crap as a mafioso.

That doesn't mean nutella has to be evil. Her interactions with INH are a problem though, and they overrule whatever face value impression I might get or any doubts stemming from her meta.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general. I'm as much to blame as anyone, as I have had terribly little time to really be here apart from the interactive reads I trudged through. I see stupid cases (e.g. Colin wants to be rezzed or something), and mildly interesting cases that are challenged by concrete town indicators (e.g. Long Con, nutella, Lunalee). I don't think these conflicts are going to be resolved before the deadline, so I am endorsing the lynch a player for whom there ought not be conflict:

sprityo

That's the point of what I've done. That's why. I don't give even the slightest sliver of a fraction of a shit how easy it looks. People keep ignoring me anyway, so it isn't even easy.

[Long Con]

Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general. I'm as much to blame as anyone, as I have had terribly little time to really be here apart from the interactive reads I trudged through. I see stupid cases (e.g. Colin wants to be rezzed or something), and mildly interesting cases that are challenged by concrete town indicators (e.g. Long Con, nutella, Lunalee). I don't think these conflicts are going to be resolved before the deadline, so I am endorsing the lynch a player for whom there ought not be conflict:

sprityo

That's the point of what I've done. That's why. I don't give even the slightest sliver of a fraction of a shit how easy it looks. People keep ignoring me anyway, so it isn't even easy.

If I remember correctly, this is based on quietness?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lynching Sprityo feels like a cop out.

[speedchuck]

Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general.

I thought pooping on the town effort was a scumtell or something.

[Sloonei]

Moved my vote back to Jack because my gut tells me to. I’m still not really here.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general. I'm as much to blame as anyone, as I have had terribly little time to really be here apart from the interactive reads I trudged through. I see stupid cases (e.g. Colin wants to be rezzed or something), and mildly interesting cases that are challenged by concrete town indicators (e.g. Long Con, nutella, Lunalee). I don't think these conflicts are going to be resolved before the deadline, so I am endorsing the lynch a player for whom there ought not be conflict:

sprityo

That's the point of what I've done. That's why. I don't give even the slightest sliver of a fraction of a shit how easy it looks. People keep ignoring me anyway, so it isn't even easy.

If I remember correctly, this is based on quietness?

Quietness when an opportunity for better has been established. sprityo joined the game and didn't take long to make posts. Those posts were useless to the hunt and he hasn't returned. This is after lapluie checked in and then vanished in a similar fashion. They've both made certain to say "yes, I am here, I exist, I am in this game" and then poofed. So I shall murder them. It is my way.

I am not waiting for a vigilante either. We have no guarantee that another vig shot will ever occur.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Lynching Sprityo feels like a cop out.

Saying that is a cop out.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I suddenly am more okay with lynching Sprityo.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]karavalenge[/mention], why Long Con

[Epignosis]

I am only on page 44, so I'm still behind. Most of the pages are blocked here and I will be in a meeting when the poll closes, I think. I recall being impressed with Russtifinko's Hitler thing, and so I'm putting my vote on timmer. I don't hate the Colin lynch, but I see he already has five votes.

[Glorfindel]

Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general. I'm as much to blame as anyone, as I have had terribly little time to really be here apart from the interactive reads I trudged through. I see stupid cases (e.g. Colin wants to be rezzed or something), and mildly interesting cases that are challenged by concrete town indicators (e.g. Long Con, nutella, Lunalee). I don't think these conflicts are going to be resolved before the deadline, so I am endorsing the lynch a player for whom there ought not be conflict:

sprityo

That's the point of what I've done. That's why. I don't give even the slightest sliver of a fraction of a shit how easy it looks. People keep ignoring me anyway, so it isn't even easy.

My apologies, Jay but are you saying Lunalee is (in your opinion) concrete Town?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I am only on page 44, so I'm still behind. Most of the pages are blocked here and I will be in a meeting when the poll closes, I think. I recall being impressed with Russtifinko's Hitler thing, and so I'm putting my vote on timmer. I don't hate the Colin lynch, but I see he already has five votes.

Talk to me about LC and Nutella.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Glor, get an avatar.

Is it helpful to Epi if we don’t curse?

[Epignosis]

I just changed my time setting and I see that I won't even be in a meeting when this ends. I'll still be teaching. I can't do anything more than vote. I'm sorry.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Today has been a rather crappy day phase in general. I'm as much to blame as anyone, as I have had terribly little time to really be here apart from the interactive reads I trudged through. I see stupid cases (e.g. Colin wants to be rezzed or something), and mildly interesting cases that are challenged by concrete town indicators (e.g. Long Con, nutella, Lunalee). I don't think these conflicts are going to be resolved before the deadline, so I am endorsing the lynch a player for whom there ought not be conflict:

sprityo

That's the point of what I've done. That's why. I don't give even the slightest sliver of a fraction of a shit how easy it looks. People keep ignoring me anyway, so it isn't even easy.

My apologies, Jay but are you saying Lunalee is (in your opinion) concrete Town?

No, but I am saying there are decent reasons to trust her which operate in conflict with suspicions of her.