Hogwarts Mafia - END

[speedchuck]

2. LC Did not start with a Hallow, but gained one through killing. Bad

Unless vig

...

Unless revenge-kill for a negative non-kill ability

So like, very possibly not bad?

"Very possibly" is a stretch my guy.

We've had what, 3 nightkills in addition to the 2 mafia kills? Why is that not a 3/5 chance?

[Lunalee]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

[Lunalee]

Ok so since people asked

juliets has kill immunity tonight, to go in line with previous replacements.

Poor juliets, she just replaced in and it looks like the mafia already tried to take her out. :P

[ColinIsCool]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

[Lunalee]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I am only on page 44, so I'm still behind. Most of the pages are blocked here and I will be in a meeting when the poll closes, I think. I recall being impressed with Russtifinko's Hitler thing, and so I'm putting my vote on timmer. I don't hate the Colin lynch, but I see he already has five votes.

Talk to me about LC and Nutella.

I don't suspect either.

What makes you think they are town?

[speedchuck]

JJJ Day 1 through Day 3, with me arbitrarily grabbing or summarizing anything I think is relevant to JJJ, INH, nutella, Nova, the state of the game, JJJ's genuineness and consistency, or glorf.

Spoiler: show

Day one:
Votes Quin over whatever.
Votes LC over whatever.
Voted Turbup Head because TH voted him for an 'ingenuine' reason.

I am a member of the civilian faction.
I am not a member of any mafia faction.
I am not involved in any BTSC.
I thought I could come up with more objective truths than that for a fun spammy lie detector post, but everything else coming to mind is subjective or relative. Take your pick if you so desire, alchemists!

These are soooooo useful considering that the truth serum is a potion, and those can't be used night one to check stuff from day one lol.

Night one
reads:

Colin - good
DH - good
INH - bad
Kyle - good

Bullzeye - bad
Epignosis - good
Glorfindel - good
Owner - good
poutanko - good
Soneji - good

juliets - bad
Long Con - good
Lunalee - good
Mac - good
nutella - good
Quin - good

Jack - bad
lap - bad
nova - good
speed - good
timmer - bad
karavalenge - bad

Day 2 ish

Alright, I'm now caught up.

Most of the Day so far has just been two different squabbles over semantics. The whole Epi-Juliets thing has been more or less baffling in its scattershot legitimacy. It's the kind of thing that JJJ usually pushes, except with less actual substance, which makes me a tad sus of JJJ. Then there's the whole Owner/DH thing. It definitely feels like Owner is stuck replaying Firefly, while the rest of us are playing a new game. This regression could be scummy or not, depends on what else Owner decides to bring to the table. So far, I ain't impressed.

Alright, I'm now caught up.

Most of the Day so far has just been two different squabbles over semantics. The whole Epi-Juliets thing has been more or less baffling in its scattershot legitimacy. It's the kind of thing that JJJ usually pushes, except with less actual substance, which makes me a tad sus of JJJ. Then there's the whole Owner/DH thing. It definitely feels like Owner is stuck replaying Firefly, while the rest of us are playing a new game. This regression could be scummy or not, depends on what else Owner decides to bring to the table. So far, I ain't impressed.

It's not a regression. It is potentially a meta thing.

Would you trust other people who have played with DH over a ton of games and have seen him as both scum and civ if they were to tell you that you were barking up the wrong tree with your meta characterization of him?

I'm gonna drop a vote on Owner. Her efforts so far just seem disingenuous. Her "read" of DH is unjustified baloney, and her other reads are substance-less.

Hopefully I'll be able to participate more on Day 2, and I want to do some more research into JJJ and TH.

OWNER

I don't get the impression that INH was interested in learning something about Owner's motives in this progression. Instead, it looks like to me like he is giving Owner shit for pursuing an errant thread of suspicion (potentially TMI on DH, to boot) and deciding to participate in her murder when it appears viable. Indeed, the highlighted portion is key: I think his read is hardly justified on her, and his "other reads" do not exist.

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine

I'm ISOing, but I believe this is the start of INH's downfall?

Someone tell me why INH is a civilian.

JJJ is tricky. In the one scum game I've played with him (well, the one where he had a full hidden team, not Phenon Origins in other words #oracle) he soft-bussed like every one of his allies. Mountain Mafia, was it? Jay build scumcases on all his buddies, but they were soft cases. Refutable, easy to avoid if the player started contributing. Is the case on INH that? Is it soft, or hard?

Can't recall a thing the guy has posted. That's kind of how he always is so basically NAI, but it means nothing is particularly in his favor.

in which I provide a link to my own grievances in hopes of aiding my good friend nutella of The Syndicate in her efforts to interpret the play of another esteemed Syndicateer by the name of insertnamehere

Right, I do remember this. He hasn't responded yet has he? It's a solid accusation.

Nope, though I don't believe he has been around yet. We shall see.

According to nutella, it's "solid."

Someone tell me why timmer is a civilian.

Link provided for your convenience!

Someone tell me why Jackofhearts2005 is a civilian (preferably someone different from any respondent to the timmer query).

Clearly not just an INH thing. These come soon after the previous INH posts. Also

maybe Kyle is bad cuz I dunno why he's good

Carries the same sentiment.

Can't recall a thing the guy has posted. That's kind of how he always is so basically NAI, but it means nothing is particularly in his favor.

in which I provide a link to my own grievances in hopes of aiding my good friend nutella of The Syndicate in her efforts to interpret the play of another esteemed Syndicateer by the name of insertnamehere

Yeah well I think your read that INH's read on Owner's read being baseless is baseless is baseless.

that's cool because you don't have any reads so i will stick with mine

... Jack defended INH. Sort of.

JJJ also entertains suspicion on Mac, by which I mean he says "Yeah he could be scum" and then goes back to INH.

The last sentence is patently false. I have both justified my read on Owner, and provided reads on other people. It's up to you whether you choose to include them in the narrative you're pushing about me or not.

Is this one of those intentionally idiotic and empty cases you push sometimes to see how people react, or is this actually serious? Maybe try using a different font color for your wacky crazy prank cases and your actual "legit" cases.

No to all of this. Your justification re: Owner was no better than her justification re: DH. It sucked.

Your posts were nearly 100% Owner-centric at the I said that.

Your contributions tend to be complaints instead of substance, so I don’t care what you think of my play.

More INH focus.

Immediately after this post (in the same minute even) JJJ switches to Bullzeye.

I’m torn on INH. The tone of his defenses is decent, but the content is meh.

I haven't read all of INH's posts, but this is a good way to leave the INH train without having a reason. Tone isn't something you can substantiate.

I’m torn on INH. The tone of his defenses is decent, but the content is meh.

You're the GTH man. Take a side.

gud

Just like that.

JJJ votes Soneji a bit later, "looking for alternative places to vote"
He then makes a case on him based on Soneji smearing Owner and having ingenuine suspicion toward TH.

Good takes on Soneji. I could vote there.

Which takes are especially pleasing to your creamy hazelnut innards?

If JJJ and nutella are scum together I will laugh. They've been bouncing off each other all game with stuff like this (mostly in posts I didn't quote earlier) and in night three JJJ threw a townread at Nutella for NO REASON after harping over the Glorf vote for hours on end. Meanwhile I, partnered with nutella in the same vote but following Jay's logic to save glorf in the end, get a scumread. Dunno what's up with that.

JJJ does a lot of asking questions and driving people to make reads. Obviously a good thing.

JJJ votes for Lunalee for fumbling and such.

JJJ states that "nutella is a civilian."

He also talks about not being able to read Luna for two posts. Then he goes back to voting Soneji.

Other folks I'd be down to lynching: Glorf, Owner, and maaaaaybe JJJ. Need to read up on all of three of them before I decisively side against them.

Prototypical player salad. Y'all want a definition? This is the definition, or at least of the manner of salad that has most frequently caught bad guys in my experience. Put it in the encyclopedia.

"I would be willing to lynch X, Y, Z, or maaaaaaybe W" is literally how I have described player salad in the past.

First to call out INH's player salad here. He doesn't vote there or pursue it, but instead starts bringing up the origin and other examples of player salad.
*ahem*
NEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRD

She’s doing a Speedball impression so her suspicions have no weight. Bold is not the right word.

Compare and report. That's a civilian nutella.

Still defending nutella.

Who buys INH as a civilian?

This thing again.

@nutella, Jack thinks you're bad. Talk about it.

Coaching. :P

Soneji is mislynched. Replacements come in. JJJ starts goofing off with his weird names.

I have no time this phase to play. Here are some suspects to chew on: Isaiah (INH), Kevin (Kylemii), Mark (Mac), Qasim (Quin), Sid (LaSprit), Stanley (Slowner)

DAY 3!

INH has been vigged.

Trust in the salad.

Interactive analysis results from JJJ for INH/others:
Colin looks the same
DH looks better
Bullz ???
Epi looks same
Glorf same
Slowner looks better
Pout meh
LC looks slightly better
Luna has some good and bad
Mac gets no points
Nutella got problems

JJJ calls out nutella for voting JJJ as a likely INH teammate, says it looks fake. Back to analysis.

Quin gets no points.

JJJ clarifies that he townread nutella for a while but it comfortable turning on her because her meta is easy to mimic.

Jack doesn't look that great.
Kara maayyyybe looks better
LaSprit nothing
No change on timmer.

And I forgot this existed:

Rainbow based on INH interactions only:

DharmaHelper
Owner/Sloonei
karavalenge

Long Con

Bullzeye/speedchuck G
Epignosis G
Glorfindel G
poutanko G
MacDougall B
Quin G
lapluie/sprityo B
timmer B

ColinIsCool
Lunalee

nutella
Jackofhearts2005

Since yellow is a disgusting and illegal color in any rainbow list, I have provided gun-to-head reads on everyone in that tier.

Dude, you voted Bullz too before

Yup. If I recall correctly my vote trajectory was Bullzeye ~~> Soneji ~~> Lunalee ~~> Soneji.

Dude, you voted Bullz too before

Yup. If I recall correctly my vote trajectory was insertnamehere ~~> Bullzeye ~~> Soneji ~~> Lunalee ~~> Soneji.

Correction. I vote a lot.

Forgets that he voted INH. Amusing to me so I'm putting it in here.

@nutella, I believe you raised the first accusation of player salad in this game (against Owner I think?). When I went after INH for his prototype salad, you were clearly not comfortable following the lead. This stands out especially because that sort of hesitation doesn't really seem to exist often or at all elsewhere in your post history. Why did INH deserve that?

Maybe this means the read change on nutella is organic. In that case, why is JJJ currently reading her town again?

JJJ votes Sprityo. Then he votes Mac. He goes after Mac for wording and for various other things. Some of which pertain to Mac TMIing nutella as town by calling her arrogant. This could be JJJ using Mac to try and get a town lean on nutella in some way somewhere, but it's a stretch and a move that could backfire. Nah.

JJJ votes nutella, though I don't know why he left Mac just from the ISO.

JJJ votes Timmer. We get Timmergate, the "Bullz vigged nova" story, yada yada yada. Nutella involved in that, she made the vig assumption.

Back to voting Sprityo after timmergate. He gets onto Colin for hoping for a rez. We talk some about fake roleflips for no reason.

JJJ reviews Pout, says she looks pretty good.

Doesn't trust the Colin voters. Brings up some really good points against lynching Long Con, the same from his INH interactions list. Says that he could lynch him otherwise for Day 3 stuff. What stuff? IDK.

Calls the day phase crappy, says we might as well lynch Sprityo.

Glorfgate happens.

And that's as caught up as I'm going to get.

[speedchuck]

I'm going to read over what I just posted and come to a conclusion after taking a break. JJJ posts a lot. I'd like some other opinions as well. Most of what I posted was just facts, and my few opinions are clearly shown as such.

As of right now, I could absolutely see JJJ as scum. I could see him as scum with Nutella. And I could see him as town. There were hints of all these possibilities in that readthrough. I need to look at motive and figure out which is most likely.

Preferably, before night ends.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I feel bad that you’ve gone to such effort there chuckaroo, though I appreciate it anyway. It really wasn’t necessary for reasons you can’t be expected to understand, but you will in due time.

[speedchuck]

I feel bad that you’ve gone to such effort there chuckaroo, though I appreciate it anyway. It really wasn’t necessary for reasons you can’t be expected to understand, but you will in due time.

You're going to kill me, aren't you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there’s a pressing point you really want to learn about, indicate it and I will bother.

[speedchuck]

For real, though [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

I want to know how your read progressed on Nutella throughout the game. Mostly in the past 48 hours.

I want to know when your suspicion for INH reached its zenith.

Those are the two biggest questions that came out of my readthrough. linki: Thanks, I appreciate it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I feel bad that you’ve gone to such effort there chuckaroo, though I appreciate it anyway. It really wasn’t necessary for reasons you can’t be expected to understand, but you will in due time.

You're going to kill me, aren't you.

No, speedchuck. I’m a nice boy.

[Turnip Head]

Turbup Head

[DharmaHelper]

2. LC Did not start with a Hallow, but gained one through killing. Bad

Unless vig

...

Unless revenge-kill for a negative non-kill ability

So like, very possibly not bad?

"Very possibly" is a stretch my guy.

We've had what, 3 nightkills in addition to the 2 mafia kills? Why is that not a 3/5 chance?

Because it ain't, fam.

[DharmaHelper]

Guys I found Long Con's teammate.

[ColinIsCool]

I'm going to read over what I just posted and come to a conclusion after taking a break. JJJ posts a lot. I'd like some other opinions as well. Most of what I posted was just facts, and my few opinions are clearly shown as such.

As of right now, I could absolutely see JJJ as scum. I could see him as scum with Nutella. And I could see him as town. There were hints of all these possibilities in that readthrough. I need to look at motive and figure out which is most likely.

Preferably, before night ends.

I don’t know if I have ever played with scum Jay. I was sketchy on him early game and I always am hesitant to trust town leaders but I feel good about him right now.

[ColinIsCool]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want to know how your read progressed on Nutella throughout the game. Mostly in the past 48 hours.

Early I was giving her token civilian credit for many of the reasons both you and she cited in her defense later: she was posting at a high clip, seemed loose, and was on meta.

When INH died and I reviewed his interactions with nutella, she looked as bad as anyone in the game. I was then stuck with a conflict between her appearance at face value and her dealings with the bad guy, and that brought me to question the validity of my original read (should I be giving credit for adhering to a meta like this one, or is it easily replicated? Does she really believe I am the best suspect emerging from INH’s death; does that make sense? Have I underestimated her? Etc.). I turned on her because it felt right in the moment.

The conflict remained though, because at nutella’s posting rate and given the attitude she conveyed, room for a civilian in her slot wasn’t difficult to find. Then Glorf’s stuff happened; I thought he was obvious about an hour before he claimed; and she refused to budge on his wagon. To me that looked like absolute hogshit. And so my suspicion peaked.

Most recently I’ve cooled again, as I have noticed a trend in which her behavior bears the same sort of character as my own in our dealings with each other. She is flippant, arrogant at isolated moments of inspiration, and eager to spar. At times it has felt like arguing with myself, and indeed I have enjoyed annoying her.

It may evidence that we’re approaching our dynamic from similar brains and that would bode well for her.

I want to know when your suspicion for INH reached its zenith.

Those are the two biggest questions that came out of my readthrough. linki: Thanks, I appreciate it.

I was confident in him as a mafioso when he committed the cardinal salad. I was happy to lynch either him or Soneji and would have gladly gone that way at EOD if more than just one person had bitten on the case. I also didn’t care to see Luna or Owner lynched, so remaining on the counterwagon was sensible.

[DharmaHelper]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

[speedchuck]

Spoiler: show

I want to know how your read progressed on Nutella throughout the game. Mostly in the past 48 hours.

Early I was giving her token civilian credit for many of the reasons both you and she cited in her defense later: she was posting at a high clip, seemed loose, and was on meta.

When INH died and I reviewed his interactions with nutella, she looked as bad as anyone in the game. I was then stuck with a conflict between her appearance at face value and her dealings with the bad guy, and that brought me to question the validity of my original read (should I be giving credit for adhering to a meta like this one, or is it easily replicated? Does she really believe I am the best suspect emerging from INH’s death; does that make sense? Have I underestimated her? Etc.). I turned on her because it felt right in the moment.

The conflict remained though, because at nutella’s posting rate and given the attitude she conveyed, room for a civilian in her slot wasn’t difficult to find. Then Glorf’s stuff happened; I thought he was obvious about an hour before he claimed; and she refused to budge on his wagon. To me that looked like absolute hogshit. And so my suspicion peaked.

Most recently I’ve cooled again, as I have noticed a trend in which her behavior bears the same sort of character as my own in our dealings with each other. She is flippant, arrogant at isolated moments of inspiration, and eager to spar. At times it has felt like arguing with myself, and indeed I have enjoyed annoying her.

It may evidence that we’re approaching our dynamic from similar brains and that would bode well for her.

I want to know when your suspicion for INH reached its zenith.

Those are the two biggest questions that came out of my readthrough. linki: Thanks, I appreciate it.

I was confident in him as a mafioso when he committed the cardinal salad. I was happy to lynch either him or Soneji and would have gladly gone that way at EOD if more than just one person had bitten on the case. I also didn’t care to see Luna or Owner lynched, so remaining on the counterwagon was sensible.

I appreciate the response. It raises one more question, if you would indulge me.

If you were confident in INH's scumminess, how confident were you in Soneji's? Can you compare the two? Can you compare them to your current feelings toward Long Con?

[speedchuck]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention], answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.

[speedchuck]

No further questions, yer honor

[DharmaHelper]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

[juliets]

Ok so since people asked

juliets has kill immunity tonight, to go in line with previous replacements.

Poor juliets, she just replaced in and it looks like the mafia already tried to take her out. :P

And here I was thinking maybe someone was trying to protect me needlessly.

[speedchuck]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

Okay, I agree with that. Assuming that a Horcrux exists is much less taxing than assuming what a hallow does, that the hallow is one-shot and game-breaky, and that LC somehow got it. In just a numbers game, there are probably equal or more scum remaining than hallows.

So why did you conflate my contradiction of your hallows statement into a blanket statement that LC is 3/5 odds town. That isn't remotely close to what I said, and that's not how reads or odds work.

[speedchuck]

I missed a question mark Macdougall.

[juliets]

I dunno you guys, Horcruxes sound good, let’s hear LC out.

But if he had one doesn't that mean he is bad since they aren't anywhere in the set-up explanations and the mafia have secrets? I do agree with you thought about hearing LC out.

I was actually being super sarcastic

Dang. Went right over my head. I still want to hear from LC even though I think there is about a 7 in 10 chance for him to be bad. I almost never make a final decision until I've heard both sides.

linki

[DharmaHelper]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

Okay, I agree with that. Assuming that a Horcrux exists is much less taxing than assuming what a hallow does, that the hallow is one-shot and game-breaky, and that LC somehow got it. In just a numbers game, there are probably equal or more scum remaining than hallows.

So why did you conflate my contradiction of your hallows statement into a blanket statement that LC is 3/5 odds town. That isn't remotely close to what I said, and that's not how reads or odds work.

I read it as you giving 3/5 chances that if Long Con came upon a Hallow by way of killing then he did so because he's a good killer not a bad killer.

Didn't like it.

[ColinIsCool]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

We have no actual confirmation that horcruxes even exist in this game though

[DharmaHelper]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

We have no actual confirmation that horcruxes even exist in this game though

As far as I'm concerned they do.

[speedchuck]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

Okay, I agree with that. Assuming that a Horcrux exists is much less taxing than assuming what a hallow does, that the hallow is one-shot and game-breaky, and that LC somehow got it. In just a numbers game, there are probably equal or more scum remaining than hallows.

So why did you conflate my contradiction of your hallows statement into a blanket statement that LC is 3/5 odds town. That isn't remotely close to what I said, and that's not how reads or odds work.

I read it as you giving 3/5 chances that if Long Con came upon a Hallow by way of killing then he did so because he's a good killer not a bad killer.

Didn't like it.

Well then... you read it correctly. If Long Con happened to kill to get a Hallow, 3 out of five of the kills the game were presumably not scumkills. What's wrong with that?

[Sloonei]

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

[DharmaHelper]

"Actually guys theres a 3/5 chance Long Con is good so lets like not lynch him please we already lost two of our teammates lol please omg stahp"

I've already been mislynched once for defending a scum Long Con even after he scumslipped. I'm guessing you want to make it two?

If you'd like to actually engage me instead of pooping on my posts without any substance to what you're saying then I'd be happy to debate it with you.

The idea that Long Con survived due to having a Hallow assumes too much and takes too many liberties. The idea that he survived because he's bad and had a Horcrux assumes much less and takes almost no liberties.

Okay, I agree with that. Assuming that a Horcrux exists is much less taxing than assuming what a hallow does, that the hallow is one-shot and game-breaky, and that LC somehow got it. In just a numbers game, there are probably equal or more scum remaining than hallows.

So why did you conflate my contradiction of your hallows statement into a blanket statement that LC is 3/5 odds town. That isn't remotely close to what I said, and that's not how reads or odds work.

I read it as you giving 3/5 chances that if Long Con came upon a Hallow by way of killing then he did so because he's a good killer not a bad killer.

Didn't like it.

Well then... you read it correctly. If Long Con happened to kill to get a Hallow, 3 out of five of the kills the game were presumably not scumkills. What's wrong with that?

Didn't like it.

[DharmaHelper]

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He bad.

[Sloonei]

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He bad.

How did we all reach this conclusion?

[speedchuck]

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He bad.

How did we all reach this conclusion?

He survived a lynch. There are no town powers that allow that.

[speedchuck]

Also other things.

His INH interactions look pretty good, but some other stuff looks bad.

[Sloonei]

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He bad.

How did we all reach this conclusion?

He survived a lynch. There are no town powers that allow that.

Why was he being lynched in the first place?

[DharmaHelper]

Long Con:

Spoiler: show

D1 - Fun, Goofy, Aloofy. Some mechanics talk, Defensive about his mechanics talk, Defends Owner over the DH/DA distinction saying he too mixed them up. Reads TH/Luna as W/W. Votes TH, Looking for Hallows.

D2 - Uses Nova's Death to ping Jay immediately. Agrees w/ Jay about Bullz nova vote. Big post detailing thoughts on Luna. Defends Owner again, but agrees that Epi is a null read.

This jumps out at me. Here LC is talking to Kara about Kara's Day 1 Owner suspicion(s) but lack of an Owner vote:

If Owner turns up scum, then that looks bad on you: to say she really looks like scum, but stop short of casting a clinching vote for an Owner lynch.

This quote here really gets my dogs barking. Setting up a patsy for "If Owner [ever] flips scum" combined with LC's defending Owner a few times already...

Jumps off the Luna vote to glomp onto the INH salad suspicion and vote for INH. Uninspiring, and smells of distancing moreso than any other vote I can recall.

D3 -

Spoiler: show

Other folks I'd be down to lynching: Glorf, Owner, and maaaaaybe JJJ. Need to read up on all of three of them before I decisively side against them.

Prototypical player salad. Y'all want a definition? This is the definition, or at least of the manner of salad that has most frequently caught bad guys in my experience. Put it in the encyclopedia.

"I would be willing to lynch X, Y, Z, or maaaaaaybe W" is literally how I have described player salad in the past.

Reeaal. Also he ignored my (+your) testimony that Luna's behavior is not indicative of a mafia alignment.

I noticed that as well - your ideas sounded sure, and believable, though I haven't checked it out for myself in Luna's other games yet.

I'm happy to put a vote on [VOTE: INH] aubergine instead.

here we go -- for context in the several posts before this he builds a case on, highly suspects, and votes for Luna, but when Jay points out INH's salad he's all OOOOO SALAD and jumps on that here, seeming to back off of his Luna case too easily after my assertion that she wasn't matching her scum meta. I'm not wording this very well but I feel like scum LC could have built the case on town Luna and when that got resistance he backed off onto his teammate, even though Luna was still on the table to be lynched and INH wasn't really yet, and he either didn't want to look responsible for a town lynch or did want to look instrumental in a scum lynch. idk, maybe I'm stretching it but @Long Con I'm interested in your response. why did you back off of luna so easily, even with the disclaimer that you hadn't checked out her meta for yourself? why did you decide to vote INH suddenly after the salad was brought to your attention?

I thought your defense of Luna sounded like something real, and deserved looking into. Your characterization of her "more cool and manipulative" baddie game didn't look like her game here. For INH, I'm a big believer in Player Salad as a tell, which you referenced elsewhere in your post. I didn't want to leave my vote on Luna, and JJJ's catch of Player Salad made for a good new place to put my vote. I didn't vote him as a bussing move, I voted him because he looked bad to me. I was surprised no one else chose to put a vote on him.

LC, seriously? Already debunked. Chill.

I may have missed that. But really, Jay put it just how I see it:

The only true salad I have seen in this game was INH's. nutella's is close to the salad spectrum given the classic "maybe" structure, but the context is more forgivable.

I couldn't resist, since we had just discussed, at some length, that exact structure. But if it had already been brought up, then I just suck.

Those quotes may be out of order since I did a little fishing to find them. Highlighted parts are of note. Mr. "I don't let other people dictate my actions" leans heavily on other people's reads/cases/thoughts.

He feels good about Timmer, and Nutella. Thinks Sloonei townslipped (Orly?). Then when Timmer stuck his foot in his mouth LC turns on Timmer a bit with the Adolf thing. Then he backs up with a big Timmer post

Anyway Voting Long Con

[juliets]

Just a few thoughts - this probably is player salad but putting the thoughts in separate posts seems silly.

Jay described very well how I feel about nutella (not the part where I think we are of the same mind though, that is specific to Jay). I go up and down and around and around on her. I'll read her today and see if I can come to a more definitive decision.

I've been much the same with luna though in Luna's case I see her most recent stuff as more civ than bad. I didn't feel like her comment on LC was distancing or bussing, it sounded genuine to me. I'll confirm how I feel about her with a read today too.

JJJ - if I'm remembering correctly he was bad in Ass Class along with Mac. That was a heavy duty baddie team. I will probably take a look there to refresh on what they look like when bad. Others may want to do the same. He and Mac fooled us totally and completely. (Jay, it's not that I'm reading you bad at the moment but that game was humiliating and I just want to be sure I don't see parallels.)

I looked at Quin's scum game (the one for which he won the Best Baddie Socky) and his behavior looks nothing like this game. His short punchy style here to me says town but was there someone else out there who said they saw this style out of him as a baddie in some recent game?

[speedchuck]

Just a few thoughts - this probably is player salad but putting the thoughts in separate posts seems silly.

Jay described very well how I feel about nutella (not the part where I think we are of the same mind though, that is specific to Jay). I go up and down and around and around on her. I'll read her today and see if I can come to a more definitive decision.

I've been much the same with luna though in Luna's case I see her most recent stuff as more civ than bad. I didn't feel like her comment on LC was distancing or bussing, it sounded genuine to me. I'll confirm how I feel about her with a read today too.

JJJ - if I'm remembering correctly he was bad in Ass Class along with Mac. That was a heavy duty baddie team. I will probably take a look there to refresh on what they look like when bad. Others may want to do the same. He and Mac fooled us totally and completely. (Jay, it's not that I'm reading you bad at the moment but that game was humiliating and I just want to be sure I don't see parallels.)

I looked at Quin's scum game (the one for which he won the Best Baddie Socky) and his behavior looks nothing like this game. His short punchy style here to me says town but was there someone else out there who said they saw this style out of him as a baddie in some recent game?

It's not salad if you substantiate it, treat each as a read instead of a potential target, and have townreads and stuff. This isn't even close to salad.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by killing someone.

For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th.

Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Ebwop

What’s the short version of the case on Long Con?

He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow and LC killed to get it, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by scumkilling someone.

For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th. More like 1/13th for it to move via vig kill.

Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

This all assumes the mafia doesn’t have extra kill powers in their secrets, which makes the odds worse for LC by cutting down on the hallow gain chance via vig kill.

It also assumes LC stopped the lynch. Glor (who imo is confirmed town) is the person most likely to be lynched instead based on raw votes. Colin is a long shot for being the player who was actually lynched but iirc, he was 2 or 3 votes down from LC.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]juliets[/mention], I was a civilian in Ass Class. It’s an understandable mistake because I sucked so much in that game.

[juliets]

[mention]nutella[/mention] one thing that would help me with my read is if you tell me why you were suspicious of juliet 1. She asked you after you showed her as bad in your GTH reads but you declined to answer. To my knowledge it hasn't come up since. Also you mentioned you saw Kyle as bad - what was the reason for that? I am aware you are wrong at times as a civ as we all are (and also that you can be right on the money like in Phenom) so I am not trying to gig you for your reasoning. Just trying to understand how your mind is working.

[juliets]

@juliets, I was a civilian in Ass Class. It’s an understandable mistake because I sucked so much in that game.

Oh damn Jay I am sorry. Thanks for stopping me before I flipped through the whole game.

[DharmaHelper]

This all assumes the mafia doesn’t have extra kill powers in their secrets, which makes the odds worse for LC by cutting down on the hallow gain chance via vig kill.

It also assumes LC stopped the lynch. Glor (who imo is confirmed town) is the person most likely to be lynched instead based on raw votes. Colin is a long shot for being the player who was actually lynched but iirc, he was 2 or 3 votes down from LC.

It was 6-4-3 raw votes for LC, Glorf, then Colin.