Hogwarts Mafia - END

[nutella]

@nutella one thing that would help me with my read is if you tell me why you were suspicious of juliet 1. She asked you after you showed her as bad in your GTH reads but you declined to answer. To my knowledge it hasn't come up since. Also you mentioned you saw Kyle as bad - what was the reason for that? I am aware you are wrong at times as a civ as we all are (and also that you can be right on the money like in Phenom) so I am not trying to gig you for your reasoning. Just trying to understand how your mind is working.

It was a gut/tone thing, I think someone else described you as sounding a little more harsh in some of your responses and I felt the same way-- just got a bad feeling from some of your posts early on. As for Kyle, I really never know how to read him since he's mostly jokey regardless of alignment, but I was wary of his lack of content (and I think there may have been some specific interaction between you two that had me draw a connection but I don't remember)

[Lunalee]

Ok so since people asked

juliets has kill immunity tonight, to go in line with previous replacements.

Poor juliets, she just replaced in and it looks like the mafia already tried to take her out. :P

And here I was thinking maybe someone was trying to protect me needlessly.

I mean, that could also be the case

[nutella]

speedchuck, answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.

I don't understand this sentence can you clarify

[juliets]

@nutella one thing that would help me with my read is if you tell me why you were suspicious of juliet 1. She asked you after you showed her as bad in your GTH reads but you declined to answer. To my knowledge it hasn't come up since. Also you mentioned you saw Kyle as bad - what was the reason for that? I am aware you are wrong at times as a civ as we all are (and also that you can be right on the money like in Phenom) so I am not trying to gig you for your reasoning. Just trying to understand how your mind is working.

It was a gut/tone thing, I think someone else described you as sounding a little more harsh in some of your responses and I felt the same way-- just got a bad feeling from some of your posts early on. As for Kyle, I really never know how to read him since he's mostly jokey regardless of alignment, but I was wary of his lack of content (and I think there may have been some specific interaction between you two that had me draw a connection but I don't remember)

Yes Jay described juliets 1 that way so that makes sense. And I can't read Kyle's jokey posts either. And I'm pretty sure I did have an interaction with him. Thanks for your response.

[Lunalee]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

I asked what you thought, Colin. Then you shrug, and look around the room for validation instead of responding to my question. This doesn't look very good for you.

[ColinIsCool]

I thought it was obvious what my post meant.

[nutella]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

I asked what you thought, Colin. Then you shrug, and look around the room for validation instead of responding to my question. This doesn't look very good for you.

Real

I also had a negative reaction to your initial post, like you were reluctantly realizing everyone believes LC is bad and you decided you had to change your tune, but would a teammate really be the last to turn on him in this situation? Nah. The teammate is the one who calls out that person and makes it sound like that person is obvbad to set up a mislynch. Colin looks awful here.

[speedchuck]

speedchuck, answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.

I don't understand this sentence can you clarify

Having a 10 on someone day 2 is different than having a 10 on someone day 3 after a scum died the previous night. More information. Day 3 10 > day 2 10.

That's how I understood it anyway. Different scales because we have more info.

[DharmaHelper]

I wonder if LC is going to lean into his being outted or if he's gonna be like "wow thats a surprise and a shock to me, Long Con, the Civilian who isn't bad wow."

[nutella]

speedchuck, answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.

I don't understand this sentence can you clarify

Having a 10 on someone day 2 is different than having a 10 on someone day 3 after a scum died the previous night. More information. Day 3 10 > day 2 10.

That's how I understood it anyway. Different scales because we have more info.

Oh I gotchu. Yeah.

[nutella]

I wonder if LC is going to lean into his being outted or if he's gonna be like "wow thats a surprise and a shock to me, Long Con, the Civilian who isn't bad wow."

The latter seems much less likely than claiming to have had a civilian reason for survival, which we have already determined is possible.

[speedchuck]

Yeah if LC has a hallow I'd like to hear about it.

Wow, that sounded better before I said it. Still probably true.

[nutella]

Yeah if LC has a hallow I'd like to hear about it.

Wow, that sounded better before I said it. Still probably true.

..... would've sounded better without the disclaimer dude

[nutella]

relatedly I have had some developing thoughts about speed2.0 that I'll try to get around to summarizing before the night ends, nothing elaborate but some trends have been bugging me

[speedchuck]

Yeah if LC has a hallow I'd like to hear about it.

Wow, that sounded better before I said it. Still probably true.

..... would've sounded better without the disclaimer dude

It's something that needs to be addressed. The negative side of LC claiming a hallow.

[Lunalee]

I thought it was obvious what my post meant.

It was obvious. You bookmarked me for a scum read later based on what I said. I was just wondering if you had anything to add to that. like what was your read on me before this post? Bonus points if you want to call out anyone else who might be bad if LongCon flips bad.

[speedchuck]

relatedly I have had some developing thoughts about speed2.0 that I'll try to get around to summarizing before the night ends, nothing elaborate but some trends have been bugging me

I will allow this if you address my JJJ writeup.

[nutella]

relatedly I have had some developing thoughts about speed2.0 that I'll try to get around to summarizing before the night ends, nothing elaborate but some trends have been bugging me

I will allow this if you address my JJJ writeup.

What in there is directed at me? I saw there were some comments about me but I don't know what you want me to address.

[speedchuck]

relatedly I have had some developing thoughts about speed2.0 that I'll try to get around to summarizing before the night ends, nothing elaborate but some trends have been bugging me

I will allow this if you address my JJJ writeup.

What in there is directed at me? I saw there were some comments about me but I don't know what you want me to address.

You've been blowing smoke at JJJ for two days. I did some legwork in summarizing his actions in light of recent events.

I want your opinion.

[nutella]

relatedly I have had some developing thoughts about speed2.0 that I'll try to get around to summarizing before the night ends, nothing elaborate but some trends have been bugging me

I will allow this if you address my JJJ writeup.

What in there is directed at me? I saw there were some comments about me but I don't know what you want me to address.

You've been blowing smoke at JJJ for two days. I did some legwork in summarizing his actions in light of recent events.

I want your opinion.

My opinion is you sure did some summarizing.

[nutella]

Short version: Speed is buddying me and taking advantage of my suspicion of Jay.

[speedchuck]

relatedly I have had some developing thoughts about speed2.0 that I'll try to get around to summarizing before the night ends, nothing elaborate but some trends have been bugging me

I will allow this if you address my JJJ writeup.

What in there is directed at me? I saw there were some comments about me but I don't know what you want me to address.

You've been blowing smoke at JJJ for two days. I did some legwork in summarizing his actions in light of recent events.

I want your opinion.

My opinion is you sure did some summarizing.

Short version: Speed is buddying me and taking advantage of my suspicion of Jay.

You are so full of it.

And you are avoiding the ever-living heck out of the question.

[nutella]

What the fuck is the question

[speedchuck]

I haven't seen ANY writeup from you on Jay. You suspected him and haven't addressed the information. You said "Jay is INH's most likely teammate. Fight me."

I am addressing that.

In light of the information I put conveniently in the thread, WHAT IS YOUR READ ON JAY?

[ColinIsCool]

I thought it was obvious what my post meant.

It was obvious. You bookmarked me for a scum read later based on what I said. I was just wondering if you had anything to add to that. like what was your read on me before this post? Bonus points if you want to call out anyone else who might be bad if LongCon flips bad.

My read was that you are bad. I think you know that and you may have even commented on it in a similarly defensive fashion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck, answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.

I don't understand this sentence can you clarify

The JaggedJimmyJay Suspicion Scale is sensitive to context. A “7” on Day 1 would reflect a good degree of confidence against the standard of what can generally be expected on Day 1. A “7” on Day 3 reflects a good degree of confidence against that higher standard of expectation. A Day 3 score of 7 can then be thought of as “higher” than a Day 1 score of 7.

It’s all in the numbers, you see.

[nutella]

I haven't seen ANY writeup from you on Jay. You suspected him and haven't addressed the information. You said "Jay is INH's most likely teammate. Fight me."

I am addressing that.

In light of the information I put conveniently in the thread, WHAT IS YOUR READ ON JAY?

I suspect him. I think at this current juncture I suspect him less than I suspect you and Colin. I can see a world in which he is good and a world in which he is bad, which is basically the same thing you said except you included me as a factor.

[ColinIsCool]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

I asked what you thought, Colin. Then you shrug, and look around the room for validation instead of responding to my question. This doesn't look very good for you.

Real

I also had a negative reaction to your initial post, like you were reluctantly realizing everyone believes LC is bad and you decided you had to change your tune, but would a teammate really be the last to turn on him in this situation? Nah. The teammate is the one who calls out that person and makes it sound like that person is obvbad to set up a mislynch. Colin looks awful here.

I think you over-estimate what a scum team does when it’s a few members down and the sharks are circling.

[ColinIsCool]

Almost getting some TMI vibes from this convo though as if Luna and/or nut know LC’s alignment already.

[nutella]

Long Con is sure being quiet while we try to hash out why he's still alive. Makes him look like a baddie lying low. I revise my rainbow read on him and say he's bad.

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

I asked what you thought, Colin. Then you shrug, and look around the room for validation instead of responding to my question. This doesn't look very good for you.

Real

I also had a negative reaction to your initial post, like you were reluctantly realizing everyone believes LC is bad and you decided you had to change your tune, but would a teammate really be the last to turn on him in this situation? Nah. The teammate is the one who calls out that person and makes it sound like that person is obvbad to set up a mislynch. Colin looks awful here.

I think you over-estimate what a scum team does when it’s a few members down and the sharks are circling.

Please enlighten me.

[speedchuck]

I haven't seen ANY writeup from you on Jay. You suspected him and haven't addressed the information. You said "Jay is INH's most likely teammate. Fight me."

I am addressing that.

In light of the information I put conveniently in the thread, WHAT IS YOUR READ ON JAY?

I suspect him. I think at this current juncture I suspect him less than I suspect you and Colin. I can see a world in which he is good and a world in which he is bad, which is basically the same thing you said except you included me as a factor.

That's so neat.

[ColinIsCool]

If LC is bad, remember this post.

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

I asked what you thought, Colin. Then you shrug, and look around the room for validation instead of responding to my question. This doesn't look very good for you.

Real

I also had a negative reaction to your initial post, like you were reluctantly realizing everyone believes LC is bad and you decided you had to change your tune, but would a teammate really be the last to turn on him in this situation? Nah. The teammate is the one who calls out that person and makes it sound like that person is obvbad to set up a mislynch. Colin looks awful here.

I think you over-estimate what a scum team does when it’s a few members down and the sharks are circling.

Please enlighten me.

This is one of those times where the thing I said is self-evident so I am not sure what you’re asking of me.

[Lunalee]

Almost getting some TMI vibes from this convo though as if Luna and/or nut know LC’s alignment already.

I'm currently assuming Long Con is bad because he was not lynched. I agree with DH and Jay that lynch immunity is not a civilian ability. It would make sense if LC is scum.

[nutella]

Why? You think we're teammates and I'm bussing him?

How do other people feel about the initial quote?

I asked what you thought, Colin. Then you shrug, and look around the room for validation instead of responding to my question. This doesn't look very good for you.

Real

I also had a negative reaction to your initial post, like you were reluctantly realizing everyone believes LC is bad and you decided you had to change your tune, but would a teammate really be the last to turn on him in this situation? Nah. The teammate is the one who calls out that person and makes it sound like that person is obvbad to set up a mislynch. Colin looks awful here.

I think you over-estimate what a scum team does when it’s a few members down and the sharks are circling.

Please enlighten me.

This is one of those times where the thing I said is self-evident so I am not sure what you’re asking of me.

Just teasing since you seem to have such a clear idea of how the scum team behaves in this scenario.

[ColinIsCool]

I have mapped out every possible circumstance for how the scum team acts or doesn’t act based on who flips and when. Surprisingly about 45% of these scenarios end with Epignosis mailing me a check for 10 grand

[nutella]

I have mapped out every possible circumstance for how the scum team acts or doesn’t act based on who flips and when. Surprisingly about 45% of these scenarios end with Epignosis mailing me a check for 10 grand

Sign up for the holiday goodie exchange everyone

[speedchuck]

I am proceeding forward with the presumption that JJJ is civ for now. I was the person that called out his teammates in Mountain Mafia, so I know how he busses. In that game, the cases he made didn't stick and were invalidated by responses. He called out the smaller things in order to obscure the bigger picture.

I don't think Jay is doing that this game. The results speak for themselves. Suspicion on INH did not wane. JJJ, one way or another, was the main reason that INH was lynched. I would not think them likely teammates, because even while tunneling and investigating JJJ's posts through the game, I didn't find that likely. I went into that ISO with bias and only came away thinking "It's technically possible."

I'm down to argue if people want to, but I suspect I'm the only one who cared. :P And besides, Jay said something would invalidate my hard work.

[Sloonei]

yeah jay's town

[nutella]

Well you guys may be right but after I was vindicated about Golden in Firefly I'm not going to completely dismiss my hunch just because everyone else thinks someone is locktown.

[DharmaHelper]

I am proceeding forward with the presumption that JJJ is civ for now. I was the person that called out his teammates in Mountain Mafia, so I know how he busses. In that game, the cases he made didn't stick and were invalidated by responses. He called out the smaller things in order to obscure the bigger picture.

I don't think Jay is doing that this game. The results speak for themselves. Suspicion on INH did not wane. JJJ, one way or another, was the main reason that INH was lynched. I would not think them likely teammates, because even while tunneling and investigating JJJ's posts through the game, I didn't find that likely. I went into that ISO with bias and only came away thinking "It's technically possible."

I'm down to argue if people want to, but I suspect I'm the only one who cared. :P And besides, Jay said something would invalidate my hard work.

INH wasn't lynched tho

[speedchuck]

I am proceeding forward with the presumption that JJJ is civ for now. I was the person that called out his teammates in Mountain Mafia, so I know how he busses. In that game, the cases he made didn't stick and were invalidated by responses. He called out the smaller things in order to obscure the bigger picture.

I don't think Jay is doing that this game. The results speak for themselves. Suspicion on INH did not wane. JJJ, one way or another, was the main reason that INH was lynched. I would not think them likely teammates, because even while tunneling and investigating JJJ's posts through the game, I didn't find that likely. I went into that ISO with bias and only came away thinking "It's technically possible."

I'm down to argue if people want to, but I suspect I'm the only one who cared. :P And besides, Jay said something would invalidate my hard work.

INH wasn't lynched tho

Okay, yeah. Wasn't thinking when I typed that. I meant to say it's why he was vigged, but again technically that could have been a reactive revenge kill thing.

If he was vigged by a swayed townie, point stands.

[speedchuck]

Speedchuck 2.0

Timmer
karavalenge
Lunalee
poutanko
Sloonei
ColinIsCool
Juliets
nutella

Quin
JaggedJimmyJay
DharmaHelper
Jackofhearts2005

Long Con
Epignosis
MacDougall
sprityo

LC and Owner possible alignment?

These are my POE notes I'm keeping. Reference in case I get killed. Order doesn't matter that much.

[DharmaHelper]

When is EON? Soon?

[speedchuck]

When is EON? Soon?

Sometime in the next hour and a half, if we're looking at 23 or 24 hour nights.

[nutella]

Speed can you explain why you have Colin in green?

[speedchuck]

Speed can you explain why you have Colin in green?

It might be outdated.

Early in the game, he cared a lot about the roof. High effort. Since then I haven't seen anything to change my mind. Everything else I've seen is just obvious statements and "world-building" which the syndicate seems to frown on for some reason.

Why wouldn't he be in there?

[karavalenge]

karavalenge, could you please talk a little about the votes you made during the final stretch of Day 3? Thanks so much! Much appreciated! Wonderful!

Already said it. I came in with like thirty minutes left and saw it was 4-3, Colin vs Long Con. I decided to tie it since I believed Long was more likely to be mafia.

I checked again at about 5 minutes left and it had switched to Glorfindel vs Long Con. Same reasoning, I switched to Glorfindel because I believed they were more likely to be mafia.

I did not post any vote tags because I didn't want to make a fight over Hallow powers.

How do you feel about those three players right now as we emerge from a lynchless finish?

This was like, 5 pages ago now, but might as well since Jay's the only one interacting with me for the most part and I don't want to just give up on this game completely.

I still feel like any of them could be lynched. I don't think their position coming into the next day is any stronger than the last. I think what happens during the night will be very important for determining who to lynch tomorrow.

I do not have more than "feelings" because I am having difficulty following the game, it is extremely fast-paced.

[nutella]

Speed can you explain why you have Colin in green?

It might be outdated.

Early in the game, he cared a lot about the roof. High effort. Since then I haven't seen anything to change my mind. Everything else I've seen is just obvious statements and "world-building" which the syndicate seems to frown on for some reason.

Why wouldn't he be in there?

Search my posts for his name. I have a few gripes with him from day 3 and today.

[nutella]

karavalenge, could you please talk a little about the votes you made during the final stretch of Day 3? Thanks so much! Much appreciated! Wonderful!

Already said it. I came in with like thirty minutes left and saw it was 4-3, Colin vs Long Con. I decided to tie it since I believed Long was more likely to be mafia.

I checked again at about 5 minutes left and it had switched to Glorfindel vs Long Con. Same reasoning, I switched to Glorfindel because I believed they were more likely to be mafia.

I did not post any vote tags because I didn't want to make a fight over Hallow powers.

How do you feel about those three players right now as we emerge from a lynchless finish?

This was like, 5 pages ago now, but might as well since Jay's the only one interacting with me for the most part and I don't want to just give up on this game completely.

I still feel like any of them could be lynched. I don't think their position coming into the next day is any stronger than the last. I think what happens during the night will be very important for determining who to lynch tomorrow.

I do not have more than "feelings" because I am having difficulty following the game, it is extremely fast-paced.

This is...not a great post. Do you have any specific opinions about those people? Who do you want to lynch?

[nutella]

Like yeah of course what happens in the night will be important but what do you think now