Hogwarts Mafia - END

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Unless you're referring to other mafia not having these abilities, which... Might be a good point? But I'm not sure where to go with it.

Do you think it's probable that two mafia members can summon a patronus?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Because he said I came out of nowhere with my claim. Same as Kara and DH. If Speed is scum, timmer has the reason of trying to discredit me for that
[/quote]

Does timmer's vigilante claim move your read in either direction?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

ebwop

Because he said I came out of nowhere with my claim. Same as Kara and DH. If Speed is scum, timmer has the reason of trying to discredit me for that

Does timmer's vigilante claim move your read in either direction?

[poutanko]

Because he said I came out of nowhere with my claim. Same as Kara and DH. If Speed is scum, timmer has the reason of trying to discredit me for that

Does timmer's vigilante claim move your read in either direction?
[/quote]...now that's the question. He claimed odd night vig on D3(?) and no counter claim so far. Only possible if he really is the vig or one of the dead townies was the real vig.

[speedchuck]

Unless you're referring to other mafia not having these abilities, which... Might be a good point? But I'm not sure where to go with it.

Do you think it's probable that two mafia members can summon a patronus?

Do you think Quin did summon a patronus if he's lying scum?

(To answer your question, I have no idea. There are 14 regular abilities in the game, and each person has two. If DDL randomly assigned the mafia stuff, I'd say yes, it's very possible two would have patronus. But if he distributed abilities evenly, INH would have the only one)

[poutanko]

...that quote tho

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Unless you're referring to other mafia not having these abilities, which... Might be a good point? But I'm not sure where to go with it.

Do you think it's probable that two mafia members can summon a patronus?

Do you think Quin did summon a patronus if he's lying scum?

(To answer your question, I have no idea. There are 14 regular abilities in the game, and each person has two. If DDL randomly assigned the mafia stuff, I'd say yes, it's very possible two would have patronus. But if he distributed abilities evenly, INH would have the only one)

I dunno. If he didn't summon a patronus though, that means he targeted Long Con with something else. That would seem to be an important detail, yeah? What does a mafia Quin do to a mafia Long Con if not that?

*ventures off to page 1*

[JaggedJimmyJay]

...now that's the question. He claimed odd night vig on D3(?) and no counter claim so far. Only possible if he really is the vig or one of the dead townies was the real vig.

I thought he claimed earlier, though I can't recall. I'll just go spelunking in his ISO and get that for you.

[speedchuck]

Unless you're referring to other mafia not having these abilities, which... Might be a good point? But I'm not sure where to go with it.

Do you think it's probable that two mafia members can summon a patronus?

Do you think Quin did summon a patronus if he's lying scum?

(To answer your question, I have no idea. There are 14 regular abilities in the game, and each person has two. If DDL randomly assigned the mafia stuff, I'd say yes, it's very possible two would have patronus. But if he distributed abilities evenly, INH would have the only one)

I dunno. If he didn't summon a patronus though, that means he targeted Long Con with something else. That would seem to be an important detail, yeah? What does a mafia Quin do to a mafia Long Con if not that?

*ventures off to page 1*

That is a good point. Could be a secret dark arts ability, could be another patronus but it is not likely to be I suppose.

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] Were mafia roles assigned randomly as well as Hogwarts abilities, or did you have a hand in manually balancing it?

[speedchuck]

Dark Arts screwery is always an option. We're in a role-madness game. Mafia have GOT to have a ton of firepower in their secrets.

If that's the case, then I don't have anything on Quin necessarily.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That is a good point. Could be a secret dark arts ability, could be another patronus but it is not likely to be I suppose.

Dragon D. Luffy Were mafia roles assigned randomly as well as Hogwarts abilities, or did you have a hand in manually balancing it?

A quick skim tells me these are applicable, so this doesn't bear quite the reductive power I'd hoped:

Protego
Wingardium Leviosa
Invigoration Draught
Felix Felicis
Elixir of Life

[speedchuck]

Still would give me a townfirm on the other dude, though. And possibly confirm him to have the elder wand or some other piercing kill.

[speedchuck]

If Quin was protecting LC...

You guys have all the info I've been given except for the person who prolly killed LC. Maybe, once I die, you can read Quin with reads or other abilities to narrow it down.

[MacDougall]

@poutanko who could you gimme eight players you believe to be the least likely members of the mafia team?

Me
No particular order:
Collin
Luna from interaction with INH
Slowner same reason as Luna. LC saved her could be just scum tactic to make people buy his towniness had people lynch her
Nutella
Glorf/Juliet 2 because truth meta
You (don't do same thing as Negan ok)
Quin
DH from LC lynch (unless it's like what MacD said)

I am extremely disappointed in you.

[speedchuck]

I was aiming for LC to get townfirms, after all. Whether Quin is lying or not, HE sure isn't the vig. I got what I was looking for.

Either crazy behind-the-scenes stuff happened, or Quin outted himself with a lie for no reason at all. I don't know which one is more likely because [secrets]. Can't imagine why anyone would redirect Quin to LC anyway, though. Seems like a waste of a mafia ability.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Confirming that timmer claimed on Day 3

[poutanko]

@poutanko who could you gimme eight players you believe to be the least likely members of the mafia team?

Me
No particular order:
Collin
Luna from interaction with INH
Slowner same reason as Luna. LC saved her could be just scum tactic to make people buy his towniness had people lynch her
Nutella
Glorf/Juliet 2 because truth meta
You (don't do same thing as Negan ok)
Quin
DH from LC lynch (unless it's like what MacD said)

I am extremely disappointed in you.

It's not impossible but it sounds too crazy

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't think DH looks like a civilian because of anything related to Long Con. That's a bad rationale, IMO. I do think he has behaved and hunted in a way that looks authentic though, and I think INH may have spewed him as a civilian. Let me find that thing again.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Alright, I'm now caught up.

Most of the Day so far has just been two different squabbles over semantics. The whole Epi-Juliets thing has been more or less baffling in its scattershot legitimacy. It's the kind of thing that JJJ usually pushes, except with less actual substance, which makes me a tad sus of JJJ. Then there's the whole Owner/DH thing. It definitely feels like Owner is stuck replaying Firefly, while the rest of us are playing a new game. This regression could be scummy or not, depends on what else Owner decides to bring to the table. So far, I ain't impressed.

It's not a regression. It is potentially a meta thing.

Would you trust other people who have played with DH over a ton of games and have seen him as both scum and civ if they were to tell you that you were barking up the wrong tree with your meta characterization of him?

I think this is suggestive that INH knew DH is a civilian.

[MacDougall]

I am going to use the Net Promoter Score system to determine who is scum.

On a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being never would and 10 being definitely would, how likely are you to recommend X PLAYER to your friends and family?


ColinIsCool - 4
DharmaHelper - 6
JaggedJimmyJay - 7
Speedchuck 2.0 - 1
juliets 2.0 - 10
Sloonei - 5
poutanko - 6
Lunalee - 3
nutella - 9
Quin - 3
Jackofhearts2005 - 6
karavalenge - 5
sprityo - 4
timmer - 8

So these numbers are the result of asking myself the question "would you trust them in a room with your children?" Now if I order them you have your remaining Mafia clearly on the bottom here.

juliets 2.0 - 10
nutella - 9
timmer - 8
JaggedJimmyJay - 7
DharmaHelper - 6
poutanko - 6
Jackofhearts2005 - 6
Sloonei - 5
ColinIsCool - 4
sprityo - 4
Quin - 3
Lunalee - 3
Speedchuck 2.0 - 1

Now if anyone can point me at solid evidence for why they or someone else should have their number modified, I will entertain it, because I am certainly not one who has read much of the thread. For instance Lunalee is quite low on my list but appears to not be the centre of too much discussion so I presume there is some townfirm situation I have missed that has cleared her?

[Quin]

I am going to use the Net Promoter Score system to determine who is scum.

On a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being never would and 10 being definitely would, how likely are you to recommend X PLAYER to your friends and family?


ColinIsCool - 4
DharmaHelper - 6
JaggedJimmyJay - 7
Speedchuck 2.0 - 1
juliets 2.0 - 10
Sloonei - 5
poutanko - 6
Lunalee - 3
nutella - 9
Quin - 3
Jackofhearts2005 - 6
karavalenge - 5
sprityo - 4
timmer - 8

So these numbers are the result of asking myself the question "would you trust them in a room with your children?" Now if I order them you have your remaining Mafia clearly on the bottom here.

juliets 2.0 - 10
nutella - 9
timmer - 8
JaggedJimmyJay - 7
DharmaHelper - 6
poutanko - 6
Jackofhearts2005 - 6
Sloonei - 5
ColinIsCool - 4
sprityo - 4
Quin - 3
Lunalee - 3
Speedchuck 2.0 - 1

Now if anyone can point me at solid evidence for why they or someone else should have their number modified, I will entertain it, because I am certainly not one who has read much of the thread. For instance Lunalee is quite low on my list but appears to not be the centre of too much discussion so I presume there is some townfirm situation I have missed that has cleared her?

you reckon me vs speedchuck is fabricated?

[MacDougall]

Now I have given no thought to stuff like Quin/Speedchuck being more or less incompatible so don't even bother raising that speedchuck you dumb rodent.

[MacDougall]

Fucking heck Quin are you for serious?

[MacDougall]

And here I was presuming speedchuck would be the one to immediately address my beautiful analysis with such asinine response. That it was in fact you Quin, makes me feel like I should swap your positions.

[speedchuck]

And here I was presuming speedchuck would be the one to immediately address my beautiful analysis with such asinine response. That it was in fact you Quin, makes me feel like I should swap your positions.

[MacDougall]

Having taken the liberty of ordering my thoughts, it gives me pause to consider why Colin is so low. Having a moment to ponder the answer is simple. Colin is playing like a player whose enjoyment level/purpose is low. Town Colin is at the coal face of discussion. This Colin is on the perimeter always. Peeking in over shoulders. I put it to you that Colin is struggling to partake in the festivities on account of having lost several teammates, thus making it challenging for him to remain active.

[MacDougall]

This is a fairly similar summary to why I have my doubts over Sloonei, though I can award him less discredit on account of him having swapped into the game, which could account for similar behaviour.

[Quin]

And here I was presuming speedchuck would be the one to immediately address my beautiful analysis with such asinine response. That it was in fact you Quin, makes me feel like I should swap your positions.

sorry i was just a bit peeved you wouldn't let me near your children

[MacDougall]

I forgot Kara. Kara is a 5.

[MacDougall]

Wait I didn't forget Kara, I just forgot to order Kara in the bottom list. Oh good, the numbers are the same.

That means I am sincere for those playing at home.

[MacDougall]

A brief comment on my current feelings towards all players in my list.

juliets 2.0 - 10 - Juliets is the spirit of Glorfindel. My immediate reaction is that she cannot be scum because of this but then I am left to consider that... Glorfindel wasn't ever actually put in a position where he had to claim and then he swapped out of the game. So perhaps there are some doubts, though this is deep tinfoil.

nutella - 9 - Nutella's play has embodied all of the hallmarks of the required nutella town game. Her alignment would be difficult for even the most baked of MacDougall's to question.

timmer - 8 - Timmer claimed a role that would be a BOLD CLAIM indeed if it were a lie.

JaggedJimmyJay - 7 - Jay should be given 10 points but I live to doubt the man.

DharmaHelper - 6 - DharmaHelper on the surface looks tremendously townie, but my doubts are well documented. Though I have spent most of my energy belabouring them, they are still indeed merely tinfoil doubts so they are not worthy of capping him too many points.

poutanko - 6 - Poutanko has claimed a role that would be a BOLD CLAIM if indeed it were a lie. However poutanko's play otherwise has been unusual at best.

Jackofhearts2005 - 6 - Jack has been his usual self. This means that it is difficult to award him too many town points but also difficult to outright suspect the man. He is a blendatron. A machine that exists to obfuscate his alignment to all and sundry.

Kara - 5 - I appreciate the level of effort shown by a player I have not seen play before and all 5 points are awarded because of that. Otherwise there is no concrete evidence I have seen to remove Kara from a pool of potential badders.

Sloonei - 5 - Sloonei and indeed Owner have been the suspect of some periphery doubt but have avoided anyone outright nailing them. Sloonei did make one significant post that I was very impressed by and agreed with the thinking behind so all points are because of that.

ColinIsCool - 4 - Colin is playing like a player whose enjoyment level/purpose is low. Town Colin is at the coal face of discussion. This Colin is on the perimeter always. Peeking in over shoulders. I put it to you that Colin is struggling to partake in the festivities on account of having lost several teammates, thus making it challenging for him to remain active.

sprityo - 4 - Sprityo has offered little evidence to suggest he is in the business of helping the town win, ahving even outright admitted that he isn't trying because there are more dominant townies present. The mere implication of that is TMI on the alignment of all three players that he mentioned. He is a very likely candidate for scum.

Quin - 3 - Quin is indeed impossible to assign a scum read of alongside Speedchuck and his 3 points only exist because Speedchuck has just 1. If I am wrong about speedchuck then I would go as far as to say that Quin is almost guaranteed to be Mafia.

Lunalee - 3 - Lunalee is pinging me for much the same reasons as Colin except for that I came from a position of doubting her already back when there were actually scum players in the game.

Speedchuck 2.0 - 1 - Bullzeye was the scummiest player in the game when he was alive and speedchuck has now gone and got himself locked into a situation where either him or quin are bad. Speedchuck is the obvious next choice for the gallows. Is there a world in which they are both town? Yes. I would say in 23 out of 100 timelines that it the case.

[MacDougall]

Thus it was written, the Bible of Hogwarts Mafia. For all who shall follow to reference whenever doubt creeps in, and to return to as like a compass to find their north. - MacDougall Chapter 1 Verse 1

[Epignosis]

Leslus Nielsus!

Spoiler: show

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei - 5 - Sloonei and indeed Owner have been the suspect of some periphery doubt but have avoided anyone outright nailing them. Sloonei did make one significant post that I was very impressed by and agreed with the thinking behind so all points are because of that.

Which post was the post that Sloonei posted as you have posted in this post of yours?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

In which I attempt to do something with sprityo

Spoiler: show

oh my time zone is still messed up, no wonder i missed the lynch


um so ive been skimming the past 10 pages or so, only thing that stuck out to me is

mac is getting all defensive and angery a couple pages ago, i dont know what that means, but i wouldnt think he'd be so personal about stuff unless he's against someone who's really grinding his gears

glorf is always town and for the people who tried pushing otherwise, i say shame on you. Not that i've read what he's done this game.

and JJJ has a strong urge to lynch me for whatever reason. that one sticks me in the ribs. I guess it goes to say something that no one else immediately jumped onto the chance.


for the most part, im playing lax. I never intended to play, but im here because replacements were needed. The thread is pretty chaotic in general so i'm gonna be on the sidelines. i'll do work when i need to, but that doesnt mean ill do work because someone wants to pressure me with a lynch to do so.

with that, im going to eat my taco bell and continue to enjoy my first week back in the states

The first post to feature relevant content. I have gone way overboard with color-coding, but you can still have fun with it you arse (whoever you are).

Yellow: These things are observations about the game. They aren't stances taken or inferences about motive, they are purely what happened.

Orange: These things are pseudo-stances in that they can be interpreted to mean something relevant to alignment, but it isn't stated. I don't care for the yellow or orange stuff.

Red: Levity is added to the post. This isn't an issue in isolation, but nor does it add anything of use.

Blue: Guys, I am not playing. Did you hear me? I am not playing. I have replaced into the game, and I am not playing it. K? *eats tacos* Meh

Green: sprityo did actually pledge to do work, "when he needs to", that he wouldn't respond to lynch pressure. When else is there a need? sprityo, do you need to do work yet? Will you ever need to? Was this bullshit?

Spoiler: show

Why. would someone bring INH back to life?

Entirely pointless question. No civilian would ever raise INH on purpose, and no mafioso is going to answer it.

Spoiler: show

if what DH says is correct, then i think the most likely candidate for mafia in hufflepuff is Speedzeye

This post actually has a purpose and could say a lot down the road. This was in response to DH's assumption that each house features one mafioso. sprityo, who is a member of house Slytherin, pointed the finger at speedzeye. [mention]sprityo[/mention], please return to this moment and explain what it was about speedzeye that you believed made him the most likely bad guy in Hufflepuff.

This post came on Day 4, so if it was after poutanko's claim then it means considerably less. I guess I'll check before I post this instead of just saying "Jay, do it later" as I often would.

Okay, sprityo's post came about 1.5 hours before poutanko's claim. Cool beans. Please talk about it, sprityo. He reiterated the read here and again here.

Spoiler: show

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

These external declarations that two other people are engaging in town/town combat can often represent TMI, so that's not ideal. It doesn't have to be so. [mention]sprityo[/mention], why does an argument which is a waste of time that accomplishes nothing an indicator that its participants are civilians? Wouldn't that be a nice thing for a mafioso to do to feign engagement?

Spoiler: show

Yeah pretty much

Ok I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?

That’s the thing Juliets I don’t have many thoughts

Why do I need to participate when there’s perfectly capable people who can? It’s not like megaman where I needed to step up to the plate. Jay and Mac and DH are all strong enough.

If I wanted to start anywhere it would be confirming them as good or bad, but that in itself is a monumental task

Mafia are playing hard mode keeping all three alive. Is there a reason for that?

sprityo seems to know that all three of DH, Mac, and I are civilians? He does acknowledge a need to "confirm us as good or bad", but I don't get the impression in this post that he takes that seriously. We're all strong enough to do the work so that he doesn't need to do it, and the mafia are playing it tougher by keeping us alive. Those assertions all infer civilian alignments for all three of us.

Spoiler: show

Also Juliets I think there’s merit in investigating why Epi was killed and who he had voiced suspicions for at the time

Is this why you killed him?

~~~

Conclusion

Well he was already a default POE prospect, and this didn't do him any favors. He looks worse than he looked five minutes ago, so bad got badder.

[Jackofhearts2005]

i dont get it but i agree wholeheartedly that i should be confirmed town

INH have patronum, you have patronum. You should be Town if no same ability on maf team

I don’t think clearing anyone who claims a power a dead goon had is a good idea, even if I do think Quin is town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Alright, I'm now caught up.

Most of the Day so far has just been two different squabbles over semantics. The whole Epi-Juliets thing has been more or less baffling in its scattershot legitimacy. It's the kind of thing that JJJ usually pushes, except with less actual substance, which makes me a tad sus of JJJ. Then there's the whole Owner/DH thing. It definitely feels like Owner is stuck replaying Firefly, while the rest of us are playing a new game. This regression could be scummy or not, depends on what else Owner decides to bring to the table. So far, I ain't impressed.

It's not a regression. It is potentially a meta thing.

Would you trust other people who have played with DH over a ton of games and have seen him as both scum and civ if they were to tell you that you were barking up the wrong tree with your meta characterization of him?

I think this is suggestive that INH knew DH is a civilian.

Agreed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want to make effective use of this extended night phase, but I don't want to trudge around in busy work analysis that isn't going anywhere. So I am asking for requests:

Is there a player you feel hasn't been given a critical enough eye?

Is there a player combination you feel might be concerning as potential teammates beyond just that they're both in your POE pool?

I have another idea of my own which might go a long way toward solving the game, but it would be a significant workload (to such a degree that it may be impractical). If anyone is interested in teaming up with me for a larger-scale exercise over the next three real-time days, say so. This is often what it takes to get a civilian win.

[Jackofhearts2005]

You should look and Sprityo some more.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And “not it” on that teamup.

[Jackofhearts2005]

*sneer*

[JaggedJimmyJay]

As it pertains to my own analytic idea, it would be very helpful if everyone alive would give me a 7-player POE pool. Even if you already posted one, an update presently would be appreciated.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And “not it” on that teamup.

How many town losses in a row did you say you've had?

[Sloonei]

7-player POE
Quin/Speedchuck - 1 but not both
Colin, because if I'm gonna doubt one of poutanko's IDs, I might as well doubt the other.
Mac
Jack
kara
sprit

Ranking those from least to most suspicious:
Colin
kara
Mac
Speedchuck
Quin
Jack
sprit

I'm still very hung up on Quin and speedchuck. I also still have not done any homework on Jack or Mac, but in the real-time interactions I've seen with them, Mac's sometimes frantic tone strikes me as genuine. Jack's been the opposite of frantic and I can't pin him down anywhere.

I probably don't have time for anything major over the weekend.

[Jackofhearts2005]

7 player poe
Chuck
Quin
Luna
Kara
Sprityo
Colin
...
Pou

[Jackofhearts2005]

I almost put Jay on that last spot. And DH. And Mac and Timmer. Fake cop claim is my favorite tinfoil when push comes to shove I guess.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I almost put Jay on that last spot. And DH. And Mac and Timmer. Fake cop claim is my favorite tinfoil when push comes to shove I guess.

So your true POE is the entire game other than Glorfiets and nutella.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I almost put Jay on that last spot. And DH. And Mac and Timmer. Fake cop claim is my favorite tinfoil when push comes to shove I guess.

So your true POE is the entire game other than Glorfiets and nutella.

My true POE only has 6 players in it.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What if everyone is mafia except me? That’s how my last two townie games were.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention], what has inspired your turn on nutella (for the better)?