Fallout: A Post-Nuclear Mafia Game (END)

[Sloonei]

I agree with Jack there. It is very difficult to see a Jack/sabie pairing.

hey it's 6:00

[Glorfindel]

I hate the thought of losing this game to him if he is Mafia.

Honestly, Glor. Do you think you'd be alive on D3 if I was mafia?

I'm playing nice but if I was scum, I'd just sidestep the issue and make sure we didn't get a repeat of what happened in Potter.

That’s kind of a good point. There is no doubt in my mind that you wouldn’t string me up at the first opportunity you had.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[Glorfindel]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] That is EXCELLENT! Can we have the EoD vote counts posted like this ALL the time please?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

An operative eliminated

With his brilliant lieutenant eliminated, The Master was forced to double down his efforts from his own base of operations. He ordered a sweeping investigation of his facilities below and above ground to ensure all personnel are entirely dedicated to his message of Unity. One of them wasn't. Thankfully for him, the chaos of seeking him out ended up exposing her anyway.


ColinIsCool was lynched. He was:

Spoiler: show

LAURA

It is Night 3. You have 24 hours to submit your actions. The store and casino remain open.

[Sloonei]

You're a Follower disguised among the Children of the Cathedral as a spy. Your task is to acquire knowledge of what happens behind the closed doors of the Cathedral facility and within that mysterious organization.

During each night phase, you may submit a message to the host which will be transmitted to Nicole. You may not reveal your identity in this message, as if it is intercepted your cover will be blown.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told whether or not that player is aligned with the Supermutants.

Colin was hard defending sprit for fuzzy reasons.

[Glorfindel]

I’m sorry, but FFS!!!

[Jackofhearts2005]

You're a Follower disguised among the Children of the Cathedral as a spy. Your task is to acquire knowledge of what happens behind the closed doors of the Cathedral facility and within that mysterious organization.

During each night phase, you may submit a message to the host which will be transmitted to Nicole. You may not reveal your identity in this message, as if it is intercepted your cover will be blown.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told whether or not that player is aligned with the Supermutants.

Colin was hard defending sprit for fuzzy reasons.

Whelp. At least we got a 2 for one and there's no reason to ever lynch Sprityo.

[Sloonei]

You're a Follower disguised among the Children of the Cathedral as a spy. Your task is to acquire knowledge of what happens behind the closed doors of the Cathedral facility and within that mysterious organization.

During each night phase, you may submit a message to the host which will be transmitted to Nicole. You may not reveal your identity in this message, as if it is intercepted your cover will be blown.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told whether or not that player is aligned with the Supermutants.

Colin was hard defending sprit for fuzzy reasons.

Whelp. At least we got a 2 for one and there's no reason to ever lynch Sprityo.

He also voted for you.

[Jackofhearts2005]

You're a Follower disguised among the Children of the Cathedral as a spy. Your task is to acquire knowledge of what happens behind the closed doors of the Cathedral facility and within that mysterious organization.

During each night phase, you may submit a message to the host which will be transmitted to Nicole. You may not reveal your identity in this message, as if it is intercepted your cover will be blown.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told whether or not that player is aligned with the Supermutants.

Colin was hard defending sprit for fuzzy reasons.

Whelp. At least we got a 2 for one and there's no reason to ever lynch Sprityo.

He also voted for you.

Well, he wouldn'ta done that if he had checked my alignment.

[Sloonei]

You're a Follower disguised among the Children of the Cathedral as a spy. Your task is to acquire knowledge of what happens behind the closed doors of the Cathedral facility and within that mysterious organization.

During each night phase, you may submit a message to the host which will be transmitted to Nicole. You may not reveal your identity in this message, as if it is intercepted your cover will be blown.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told whether or not that player is aligned with the Supermutants.

Colin was hard defending sprit for fuzzy reasons.

Whelp. At least we got a 2 for one and there's no reason to ever lynch Sprityo.

He also voted for you.

Well, he wouldn'ta done that if he had checked my alignment.

[Sloonei]

Colin was a 2-shot cops. 2 nights have passed. I tend to believe that it’s best to use shots like that as quickly as possible because A) the faster that information can be attained, the better one’s foundation will be when trying to solve the game, and B) you never know when you might wake up dead.

Colin’s two strongest reads (at least in the sense that he voiced those reads confidently and against the grain) were a town read on sprit and a scum read on Jack.

I’d need to review his posts more carefully before running confidently with this theory, but I’m putting it out there now.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Actually, Sloonei...

[VOTE: JACK] aubergine but if anybody else wants to kill Sloonei please hit me up on MSN Messenger and I’ll be sure to switch.

[Sloonei]

Actually Jack...

I’m sorta waffling on my suspicion of Sloonei. I think I had it in 2 with sabie and Jack last round because his backing-off of the Sloonei-recruit-theory makes his support for it feel illegitimate

[Jackofhearts2005]

The joke is that he has a red peek on Sloonei.

But really? It just means he didn't get a red peak at all because if he red peeked me, he wouldn't be willing to switch to Sloonei and if he red peeked Sloonei, he wouldn't have been voting for me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

[Glorfindel]

Clearly an analysis of Colin’s reads and how they changed (if they did) is required here.

[MacDougall]

Sorry I missed the lynch, I just moved and don't have the internet at home and my phone went flat and I left my charger at work and just got here.

[Glorfindel]

When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

[TonyStarkPrime]

When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

If I were were scum and in charge I wouldn’t recruit someone. It’s not a winning strategy but it’d be funny.

[birdwithteeth11]

You're a Follower disguised among the Children of the Cathedral as a spy. Your task is to acquire knowledge of what happens behind the closed doors of the Cathedral facility and within that mysterious organization.

During each night phase, you may submit a message to the host which will be transmitted to Nicole. You may not reveal your identity in this message, as if it is intercepted your cover will be blown.

Twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told whether or not that player is aligned with the Supermutants.

Colin was hard defending sprit for fuzzy reasons.

Whelp. At least we got a 2 for one and there's no reason to ever lynch Sprityo.

He also voted for you.

Well, he wouldn'ta done that if he had checked my alignment.

More like

[birdwithteeth11]

When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

If I were were scum and in charge I wouldn’t recruit someone. It’s not a winning strategy but it’d be funny.

So as scum, you would sacrifice a chance to increase your numbers? That makes no sense to me.

[birdwithteeth11]

Jack seems like he's gone through most of this game with a bit of a...carefree attitude to me with lots of jokes and humor.

Jack, what are some good reason(s) to not vote for you on Day 4 and why you aren't one of the two remaining baddies? Because Colin's role reveal makes me feel the least good about you now.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Sprit being probably Town is a bad look for Jack. Colin being Town is a bad look for Jack. Colin maybe having copped Jack is a bad look for Jack. Given all this, I am still reasonably certain that Jack is town.

[TonyStarkPrime]

When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

If I were were scum and in charge I wouldn’t recruit someone. It’s not a winning strategy but it’d be funny.

So as scum, you would sacrifice a chance to increase your numbers? That makes no sense to me.

Yeah the recruit never dies and you can manipulate town within the assumption that a recruit exists to lynch players who have no business being lynched. It’d be fun.

[Sloonei]

Because I know how much Colin loves receiving notifications , here's some analysis of his posts to see how firm his reads were and how they developed. Focusing mostly on living players unless it's relevant to include dead guys.

Day 1

Caught up — I really liked Mac's post re: sabie. I also agree that Creature and Mac look like good town people for coming in and stirring things up a little.

I'd like to give sabie a chance to respond and offer an alternative before voting her, though, because while it's not cutthroat, I don't like that list of all the games she got murked in ...

Anti sabie, Pro Mac, Pro Creature.

Jack's ISO is like Long Con's but with an even lower ratio so I can dig it.

Anti Jack (url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 40#p545940]vote[/url])

[VOTE: SPRITYO] aubergine

Spritvote

I knew it was ending, but also, Creature's activity of late had no effect on my vote. I saw Sloonei and Epi were voting for sprit and I trust them so far so I voted there.

Pro Sloonei, ??? Creature

Colin talk to me about LC and vice versa

I’m lazy, so I’m not going to.

Also, this post is a bit sketchy. Why wasn't your answer that you already talked about me? Was the case so fake that you forgot to pretend it was real?

I'm poking fun at Mac being a meanie to me. Why are you so obsessed with me?

For the record, this vociferous no-u-ing I'm getting actually makes me feel a little better about LC. His thinking here doesn't make sense but even less so if he's mafia and I'm the hill he wants to die on.

Highlighting this post because up til this point Colin had been anti LC. Here he starts to turn in favor of LC. I'm noting this because it's possible Colin checked LC Night 1.

Mac I'm not going to engage you further, honestly. Don't know what's going on but your energy is bizarre. It's not even Day 2 and you're going off.

Colin would go on to explain that the "bizarre energy" from Mac suggested a civilian disposition.

Day 2
Any abrupt changes in Colin's reads or strong stances will be particularly important here.

Sprityo, do you have any suspected Super Mutants?

First post of the day is a generic prod for sprit. Noted.

Okay we’ve got 40some hours here here are the avenues that I think we should be pursuing

Creature
Colin
Sabie
sprityo

As you’ll note I sorted them by the letters their names start with.

To these four — who’s mafia? Give me names.
As far as everyone else goes, out of these four who is the most likely to be town?
I don’t have much time tonight to talk but if anyone has ideas I’ll take em.

To rank that list (worst to best) sabie, Creature, sprityo, Colin. I’m not a huge fan of that list per se.

Outside of that list I don’t think it’s you, Mac, or Long Con. Everyone else is fair game.

Sprit is his de facto top town read among the four (three from Colin's point of view) provided suspects. Noted. Also expresses a town read on Tony, Mac, Long Con, and Glorf. He has gone from scum reading LC to holding him in a top tier of town reads in a relatively short span of time and without much activity. There was that one post earlier which at least hints at a changing disposition prior to the night phase, however.
Also i'll note that since Glorf was tacked on as an afterthought in a second post, I think that would indicate Colin did not check him Night 1.

Probably not Glorf either.

Why is Sloonei fair game? Why is Glorf not?

I don’t have a good read on you. Glorf has seemed as genuine as ever.

"Doesn't have a good read" on Sloonei. Colin did not check me Night 1.

I’ve been scum with sprityo and he’s a fair amount more calculated. I won’t vote him.

Colin would repeat this defense Day 3. Silly me thought it was just a wack ass attempt for Colin to look genuine by defending the player he was up against in the lynch. Now I feel like it looks like he's trying his best to defend a cleared sprityo when there's absolutely no substantive reason to do so.

What’s the deal with Creature? I don’t like his take on player salad but I haven’t been pinged so far.

??? on Creature. Colin did not check Creature Night 1.

I’ve been scum with sprityo and he’s a fair amount more calculated. I won’t vote him.

Okay, so if not Sloonei, Sprityo, or Creature who’s your target? Or don’t know yet?

Sabie, Jack or Dragomir.

Sabie I do feel sympathy for but she hasn’t done anything since the lynch to indicate being town to me and while the info we’d get might be bunk because Epi pretty much saved her in some peoples’ eyes it’d be more informative than the other two.

Jack I can pretty easily see as a mafioso letting the town pick each other apart in a low activity game. The only thing he has going for him is the rationale that he would have voted as scum which is not really that much.

Dragomir isn’t here (right?) even though I did see them on yesterday so it’d be a lotto drawing but it would give us some more time to establish lines of inquiry against suspects and we don’t have to deal with that slot come endgame.

I dunno, pretty uninspiring takes all around but my sleuthing ain’t what it used to be.

I doubt Colin checked any of these players Night 1. If he did, he wouldn't have lumped one confirmed mutant in with two complete guesses.

I was there at lynch's end, and I almost voted Creature to break the tie. Then I saw sprityo switch to sabie last-second, and saw it was a) unnecessary and b) ineffectual.

I was the one who broke the tie.

Oops. My bad. Ok. You're Civ, sir. Sorry.

No way. I encourage us all to fuck Sloonei up tomorrow, if ge wasn’t the other scum he’s the recruit.

Post-Day 2 Sloonei becomes his main target. It does not appear that he checked me Night 2, however, as he continued waffling over me throughout the day.

Day 3

[VOTE: JACK] aubergine but if anybody else wants to kill Sloonei please hit me up on MSN Messenger and I’ll be sure to switch.

Colin's first post of the day is a vote for Jack, who was previously lumped into his pile of suspects. But he also dangles me as a second choice to be lynched. If he has got a confirmed scum read on Jack, does he bother entertaining any other lynch options this day? And did Colin pursue this suspicion with enough vigor to suggest that he was 100% certain about it?

I do not think we should lynch Colin today. I think Jack is town. I’m working right now if you have questions on this I’ll try to answer before EOD.

Vote Sprityo 2019!

Nah don’t vote sprityo

Another hand wavey defense of sprit. These exchanges looked odd when Colin was alive, but they make complete sense if we assume he had a confirmed civilian read on sprit. I think I'm leaning in that direction.

I’m sorta waffling on my suspicion of Sloonei. I think I had it in 2 with sabie and Jack last round because his backing-off of the Sloonei-recruit-theory makes his support for it feel illegitimate

Backs off the Sloonei suspicion. He did not check me. But doubles down on the Jack suspicion. Still unclear whether or not he checked him.

I do not think we should lynch Colin today. I think Jack is town. I’m working right now if you have questions on this I’ll try to answer before EOD.

Vote Sprityo 2019!

Nah don’t vote sprityo

This isn’t helping your case.

Yeah Colin had a town ID on sprit.

I’m sorta waffling on my suspicion of Sloonei. I think I had it in 2 with sabie and Jack last round because his backing-off of the Sloonei-recruit-theory makes his support for it feel illegitimate

So who do you want to lynch?

The fella I’m voting for

His last post is a reaffirmation of his Jack vote.

My conclusion: It looks very much like Colin checked sprityo on Night 1 and got a town ID. [mention]sprityo[/mention] you're pseudo-cleared again. Congratulations!

It is less clear who Colin might have checked on Night 2, if he checked anyone at all. If he did perform a check, it was either on Jack or it was on somebody who was not featured in the conversation much at all. But if he did check Jack and it came back negative, I would think Colin would make more of a fuss about lynching him. I don't see any other evidence for a different Night 2 check, but I'm not sure there's enough here to say that Colin was certain about Jack's alignment.

Either way, the information we've gained from this lynch does not paint Jack favorably. It is absolutely not a confirmation of his alignment one way or another, but we essentially just crossed the two top names off our scum list, so we clearly need to re-examine some things.

[Creature]

Oh well, the lynch sucked, but we still should have a solid PoE.

[Jackofhearts2005]

When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

I didn’t say I thought that it happened. I just said it would be nice.

[sprityo]

I see I have 4 notifications and completely forgot to check in after voting jack

But I see how this turned out

Better catch up again

[birdwithteeth11]

Sprit being probably Town is a bad look for Jack. Colin being Town is a bad look for Jack. Colin maybe having copped Jack is a bad look for Jack. Given all this, I am still reasonably certain that Jack is town.

And what brings you to this conclusion given all of those facts?

[sprityo]

Well this is a right mess now ain’t it?

[sprityo]

I’m almost positive one of the people who voted colin is mafia

[sprityo]

Day1

birdwithteeth11: Creature, Sloonei
Epignosis: Long Con
Glorfindel: birdwithteeth11
Jackofhearts2005: sabie12, Glorfindel
Sabie12:TonyStarkPrime, MacDougall
sprityo: ColinIsCool, Epignosis
Not voting presently: sprityo, Jackofhearts2005



Day 2
Creature: sprityo, glorf, sabie
Sabie: sloonei, mac, TSP, creature, colin
Sloonei: Jack, LongCon
Didn’t vote: BWT2

Day 3

Colin: sloonei, BWT2, jack
Creature: glorfindel
Jack: sprityo, Colin
Sprityo: TSP
Not voting: Mac, Creature

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jack seems like he's gone through most of this game with a bit of a...carefree attitude to me with lots of jokes and humor.

Jack, what are some good reason(s) to not vote for you on Day 4 and why you aren't one of the two remaining baddies? Because Colin's role reveal makes me feel the least good about you now.

1) I would have killed Glor N1 if I was a wolf. I hate his truth meta. I think it’s against the spirit of the game. He’s unlynchable if town. I’m a good tap dancer. As a wolf, I don’t shoot people to take pressure off myself. I shoot people I can’t mislynch and wolf Jack can’t mislynch town Glor. Last time I tried, he turned what should have been a mislynch into a scum lynch with truth meta. I called for him to be modkilled. Threatened to replace out. Said he ruined the game for me. If I have a nk and Glor is town, he doesn’t last past night 1.

2) Sabie ended D1 and D2 voting for me. She put me a coin flip away from death D1. Look at her posts. We aren’t teamed.

3) Creature is an easy mislynch if you don’t know his meta. Wolf Jack lets him get mislynched instead of insisting Creature is 100% town and backing it up with post counts. Sloonei’s posts about Creature’s meta are incorrect or lies btw. There’s a significant difference between his scum game here and in Arrowverse.

4) When he voted for me, Colin said he’d switch to Sloonei if people were interested. He clearly did not red peek me.

[sprityo]

Fun fact

Sloonei has voted for every lynch target so far

[Jackofhearts2005]

1a) This does apply if Glor is a wolf but if Glor is a wolf, why are my teammates both voting me D1?

[sprityo]

I also think colin either saved his check or he checked a LC

[sprityo]

So jack, tell me: who is mafia?

[Jackofhearts2005]

So jack, tell me: who is mafia?

Well it’s not you, not Creature, not Tony.

That leaves two of Glor, Mac, BWT2.0, Sloonei. Probably Sloonei and one of BWT2.0 and Glor, both of whom I have paid little attention to.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And if Sloonei isn’t scum, Mac has to be.

I just don’t see scum recruiting Glor (who hates being mafia and has a real clear town tell that doesn’t exist when he’s mafia) or an empty slot over solid wolves Mac and Sloonei.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention]

Tell me why Mac is bad.

[sprityo]

Also, dropping a nugget

Does sloonei sound authentic or forced with his content output?

No ones really pressuring him to put out these big read walls, but they’re there

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also, dropping a nugget

Does sloonei sound authentic or forced with his content output?

No ones really pressuring him to put out these big read walls, but they’re there

Rereading Night2. LC, Colin and BWT all after him right after Sabie flipped. LC walks it back. Colin flat says he tried to save Sabie. Sloonei’s vote is pretty uninspiring.

Sloonei starts wall posting and suspicion disappears.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I don’t think town Sloon flips his read on me with that Colin flip. That shit feels forced.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Two points.

Sabie was incredibly bussable given her irl issues.

The recruit doesn’t know their action goes wild so they can’t know they were recruited until D2. I townread Mac for his D1.

It’s perfectly possible both are scum.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sabie was around at EOD and “suspected” BWT and Sprityo, who ended the day tied with her at 2 votes each. She voted me to make it a 4 way tie instead of picking who dies between 2 players she suspected.

Jack is town and a prize mislynch but why didn’t she vote BWT or Sprityo? BWT was town.

This is nutso but there’s nothing to be gained from it.

Btw, I was after Sloonei too before he started doing walls.

[Jackofhearts2005]

There are reasons to believe Glor is antialigned with Sloonei and Sabie.

There are reasons to think BWT is antialigned with Sloonei.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What evidence is there to suggest that Mac was recruited?

I think it would be better to take a step back before exploring this question, actually.

How do we think sabie (and her partner, if they were active Day 1) would have treated their recruit?

Bearing in mind that the recruit would have been pseudo-lynchproof. They began the day with a -2 vote count, and would also have been indestructible at night. So they would not necessarily need protection in the short term, but there'd be no need to expose them to the threat of long term scrutiny either.

For instance, if the recruit had received the highest vote total Day 1, they would be likely to survive in spite of this as long as somebody else was within 1-2 votes of them on the poll. This would be a major red flag to every civilian. The mutants would absolutely want to avoid hanging their impending partner out to dry like that right off the bat (baseball metaphors activated). So I think it's likely they would have wanted to pitch around that player. But it's also worth noting that (I think) the recruit would have been unaware of their recruited status on Day 1, so they certainly would have also been unaware of their partners' identities. This is the ultimate advantage of the recruit; they are a genuine and earnest civilian on Day 1. The two original mafia members probably would want to avoid heavy confrontations with their recruit -- nothing high and tight off the plate -- for everyone's benefit; if Recruited Goon gets all worked up about something The Master did Day 1, then Recruited Goon needs to find an excuse to back off their target on Day 2, or else the team is caught in a bussing trap of their own making.

SO I guess what I'm saying is I'd expect mafia to tread lightly around their recruited player on Day 1.

So what Sloonei is saying here (beyond his questioning of a scum Mac) is that I am not the recruit, which again points to Sloonei or Mac being recruited.

Cool cool. Glad we’re on the same page.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What evidence is there to suggest that Mac was recruited?

I said possible recruit, not definite recruit

Everyone's a possible recruit. Why speculate if you're not gonna attach reasons to it?

It's not evidence, but it's indication: his play majorly changed.

How so? He was less of a presence, but I'd attribute that more to availability than alignment.

Macdougall is not a player who's afraid of the spotlight when he's mafia.

More Sloonei defending Mac.

[MacDougall]

Maybe you recruit one of the low posters. It's the unexpected move.

One was mod killed one found a sub.

Can BWT be the recruit?