Persona 5 Mafia [Game End]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Tony got bussed. I'm sold. He's waving flags at his accusers and trying to mask which one did it.

Jay’s late vote aside, my problem is that the Tony wagon is exactly all my townreads before Tony flipped.

I agree Tony went into antispew somewhere around the point he voted for Jay.

I agree with both of you in that I do think that Tony was bussed, but I do not think that it makes sense to have been a decision that was made before he was placed under pressure. I don't think it makes sense for me to have both introduced the suspicion and then bussed, but at some point I can buy that he and his partner started to feel like it was a lost cause and it turned into a bus, and that is exactly how I felt in the heat of the moment when I belaboured the point that I thought you were doing exactly that.

Yeah but I’m town.

I get that Tony was a lost cause at some point so maybe that’s a good look for Epi not voting for him.

But why is Tony’s partner not one of the players absent at EOD?

You and I have never been on a team, have we?

I consider myself an honorary member of Princess Epi's heroic trio but otherwise, no.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Goofy kill --> "generate chaos" --> POE is probably on-point

[Jackofhearts2005]

Night 1 after a day 1 Mafia lynch. Super town Jay is in hot takes mode.

It feels to me like you are currently trying to open up strings of wrong minded case making everywhere. Pushing Dragomir towards me, opening up suspicion lines towards Epignosis, humouring the bussing case. You are not operating with the narrow minded focus towards tried and true scum huntign methodology. It also feels like your interaction analysis was tokenistic because it really proved nothing.

I also do not sense the "I better get my shit in" Jay that is ever present on night 1 after a Mafia death.

So you're either Mafia or you are using this game to experiment with your meta.

I'm honestly feeling this from Jay.

Spoiler: show

Yeah yeah gimmie that sus or sigh emoji.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A)

> The game started 9:2.
> Currently 8:1
> 3 mislynches available

B)

> The game started 8:3
> Currently 7:2
> 2 mislynches available

C)

> The game started 8:2:1
> Currently 7:1:1
> probably at least 2 non-mafia lynches (good chance of three) available with mystery indy wrinkles

IMO, in order of probability: A > C > B. There is a precedent for 8:3 though (Vanilla Mafia, another heist), so I suggest a better-safe-than-sorry approach. As such, ideal POE pools should feature 2 (mislynches) + 2 (living mafia) OR 3 (mislynches) + 1 (living mafia) = 4 players.

POEs of four for the win. At the moment I am feeling this:

Creature
sprityo
Epignosis
Rej

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm honestly feeling this from Jay.

All sarcasm and irritation aside, I genuinely just don't get that perception. At least three of you share it, so it must exist, but I don't get it. I have the same POE as most other people seem to have (minus myself), and I am opening up doors to bad cases?

Shrug.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also I have literally never "proven" anything with an interaction analysis in my life. I appreciate that people seem to expect those things to be some kind of miracle, but they never really are. They're the best tool I have, and sometimes they prove to be quite effective. In many cases though, I'm left wondering all over player rosters. In this instance I actually felt more confident in my conclusions than I usually would.

I think expectations and reality are quite distant from one another. Oh well.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The Long Con kill is really nice here in that it allows for an infusion of bussser theory into a safely-constructed POE. It doesn't have to be tinfoil --> it's a necessary part of the four.

[Dragomir]

Most likely to bus to least likely to bus

Rej
Jack
Nutella
Mac
Jay

[Jackofhearts2005]

If there's an indy role and I didn't rand it, I will be annoyed because the obvious indy for this theme is

Spoiler: show

Dante from the Devil May Cry series!

[Jackofhearts2005]

A)

> The game started 9:2.
> Currently 8:1
> 3 mislynches available

B)

> The game started 8:3
> Currently 7:2
> 2 mislynches available

C)

> The game started 8:2:1
> Currently 7:1:1
> probably at least 2 non-mafia lynches (good chance of three) available with mystery indy wrinkles

IMO, in order of probability: A > C > B. There is a precedent for 8:3 though (Vanilla Mafia, another heist), so I suggest a better-safe-than-sorry approach. As such, ideal POE pools should feature 2 (mislynches) + 2 (living mafia) OR 3 (mislynches) + 1 (living mafia) = 4 players.

POEs of four for the win. At the moment I am feeling this:

Creature
sprityo
Epignosis
Rej

Or maybe I'm not feeling it. Idk.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

General question for the viewing audience with respect to Epignosis:

When we like him, is it because of his tone or because of his content?

[Jackofhearts2005]

After all that, what is your opinion of Mac, JJJ?

Civilian. A back-and-forth shit-toss over nothing is on-brand in the Mac/JJJ dynamic, and I still favor my interactive analysis.

Good. I agree.

Does this imply then that nutella is bad?

Like what is this? Nutella is not is Jay's POE.

I guess it kinda feels like Jay tries to widen the POE and then when people point this out, he's like "What are you talking about? Here is my POE, which is standard but just swapping myself for Rej."

[JaggedJimmyJay]

After all that, what is your opinion of Mac, JJJ?

Civilian. A back-and-forth shit-toss over nothing is on-brand in the Mac/JJJ dynamic, and I still favor my interactive analysis.

Good. I agree.

Does this imply then that nutella is bad?

Like what is this? Nutella is not is Jay's POE.

I guess it kinda feels like Jay tries to widen the POE and then when people point this out, he's like "What are you talking about? Here is my POE, which is standard but just swapping myself for Rej."

That's not about shading nutella. That's about digging into Epi's reads and deciding whether he believes in them.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Note: I don't believe in them.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Remember that Epi had noted that bit in Tony's GTH reads:

"Mac - town, unless with nutella"

From that, Epignosis derived a mafia read -- one of them by way of a false link.

So, based on the exchange you've just quoted Jack, Epignosis agreed with my description of Mac as a civilian. Based on the prior dynamic then, Epignosis would be relegated to a mafia read on nutella. I was poking into that whole mindset.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least

One of these things is not like the others.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least

One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least

One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.

I don't care about "rule of three". Creature stands out on that list. No clue why he warrants "town core" alongside two of the most active players.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think with respect to the potential distancing vote from Tony, there's a clear distinction:

When Tony voted for me, he literally called it a "challenge". He broadcasted that vote to the universe.

When Tony voted for Epignosis, he bailed on it immediately without even mentioning that it had existed.

He bailed on your vote really quick too.

I think anything from Tony as of him voting you is pretty wifom-y.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least

One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.

I don't care about "rule of three". Creature stands out on that list. No clue why he warrants "town core" alongside two of the most active players.

You don't care about a lot of things that are inconvenient.

Why does Tony include a nonconsensus towncore read? To draw attention to that player.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think with respect to the potential distancing vote from Tony, there's a clear distinction:

When Tony voted for me, he literally called it a "challenge". He broadcasted that vote to the universe.

When Tony voted for Epignosis, he bailed on it immediately without even mentioning that it had existed.

He bailed on your vote really quick too.

I think anything from Tony as of him voting you is pretty wifom-y.

His vote for me and subsequent bail were absolutely WIFOM. He did them in broad daylight and told everyone he did them.

He told nobody about his Epi vote. I wouldn't even know it happened if Mac hadn't caught it.

[nutella]

"Man… you guys are the best, stupidest group I could ask for."

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You don't care about a lot of things that are inconvenient.

Why does Tony include a nonconsensus towncore read? To draw attention to that player.

I don't care about a lot of things that are irrelevant to my mindset. I agree with the general notion that a "rule of 3", assuming that means "at least one of the three", is a limited hunting mindset.

I just see a list and one of the players stands out. I think that's worth comment. It's possible Tony did that on purpose, sure. I don't think that's clear.

[Jackofhearts2005]

"Man… you guys are the best, stupidest group I could ask for."

Lol is this a post restriction?

[Creature]

Trying to not fall asleep.

[Creature]

Don't worry, not this game's fault.

[Creature]

Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least

One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.

I don't care about "rule of three". Creature stands out on that list. No clue why he warrants "town core" alongside two of the most active players.

I've seen bullshit townreads like this happen on town too. Their carrier usually ends slowly changing their mind over those reads to sound like they have a natural progression while also getting to push a mislynch.

[Creature]

Actually even the Mac and Jack townreads look pretty un-thought of from TSP.

[Creature]

Yeah, Long Con was in pretty much everyone's POE. No idea why he would have been shot.

[Creature]

Goofy kill --> "generate chaos" --> POE is probably on-point

Great

Which players do you think would go for this risky play rather than just follow the most normal plan?

[Creature]

Remember that Epi had noted that bit in Tony's GTH reads:

"Mac - town, unless with nutella"

Remember that Epi had noted that bit in Tony's random.org reads:

"Mac - town, unless with nutella"

[Creature]

though, just realized my read on TSP was complete bullshit. I didn't realize I had initially townread him and just assumed he seemed meh.

Why does this post exist?

Would suggest you to stay away from MU, players vent out a lot about themselves there.

[Creature]

I will literally lynch myself on Day 2 if y'all can't get over this shit. It's a rare day when things get this dire, but I genuinely don't see how the civilians can win this game if they cannot get me out of their heads. I absolutely hate to be in this position in a game with what figures to be very few mislynches available, but I am seriously at a loss. If I can't get through to anyone no matter how hard I try, then my presence here is a problem.

Have you been mislynched through multiple games despite repeatedly trying to give all your thoughts and the players in it being aware they've misread you multiple and multiple times yet not ever considering you could be town?

[Creature]

My scumgame will probably be worse than this. Atleast as town I can just pull anything and it will remain looking town. As scum I don't get the same privilege.

[Creature]

Mac and creature can be my towncore

Someone questioned about TSP putting me in his towncore.

What about this then?

[Creature]

Creature Jack Mac are probably my “town core” so there’s some overlap on the lists at least

One of these things is not like the others.

I say this is rule of 3 wifom bullshit and Creature is town.

I don't care about "rule of three". Creature stands out on that list. No clue why he warrants "town core" alongside two of the most active players.

Actually Jack is the one that stands out. Either TSP is so paranoid about him he insta-added him or he felt like adding his buddy into it earlier.

[Creature]

Dragomir

Creature
MacDougall

Long Con
Rej

nutella
sprityo
Epignosis

Jackofhearts2005
TonyStarkPrime

I don't think this is a bus.

(also just to note I said somewhere I agree with the townreads on Drago and me and the scumreads on the bottom two)

[Creature]

The best way to get a read on Long Con is to solidify reads on everyone else. POE is the only way to do anything with inactive players.

Oh well, then it seems likely he's town.

Hehe, I am being right again.

Say I have TMI.

[Creature]

jjj/Mac for most coordinated mafia fight of the year award

This sounds fake and it’s the first thing I think about Tony’s alignment.

As in I don’t believe JJJ and Mac are w/w? Of course not but it’s funny

I think JJJ is town, while I'm most skeptical about Mac still trying to mislynch me despite losing multiple town games by doing that.

actually think Mac is more likely town with a fetish to mislynch inactive townies rather than hunting actual scum.

Still stand up for this, but probably giving Mac more cred now.

[Creature]

Oh right, sprityo voted nobody and is acting hypocritical.

Probably town though.

[Creature]

Welp, I agree Epi seems weird this game compared to others.

This probably is more weightful than "oh epi would be better as scum"

[Dragomir]

General question for the viewing audience with respect to Epignosis:

When we like him, is it because of his tone or because of his content?

Tone.

[Dragomir]

Really surprising kill. I thought it'd be me.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Mac and creature can be my towncore

Someone questioned about TSP putting me in his towncore.

What about this then?

[Dragomir]

[VOTE: Rej] aubergine

[Jackofhearts2005]

General question for the viewing audience with respect to Epignosis:

When we like him, is it because of his tone or because of his content?

Content. His content is a mixed back but his tone is basically the same for town and scum Epi imo. Like his tone changes more based on how sports teams or students are doing than his alignment. I try to ignore Epi's tone when it comes to reading him.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[VOTE: Rej] aubergine

You know you're ruining half my townread of Rej, right?

What's the problem with Rej in one sentence only? I know you've stated it several times but boil it down to the most basic component.

I assume you think the Rej counterwagon is because town Jay and town Epi actually suspected the other wolf and so Tony voted there as distancing. That's not impossible. Lots of things are more possible with only 2 wolves.

[Dragomir]

Ok, to explain my scum read on Rej here. These two quotes are my main reasons for thinking Rej is TSP's buddy.

@JaggedJimmyJay I read your TSP and Creature interaction analysis(not all of it) and something caught me. In Tony's list of reads, he listed Rej as slight town. What did I say D0 about Mafia and their reads? They don't have the balls to put their buddy high up in town reads or deep in scum reads(unless bussing). If Rej had immense town cred, they would but Rej doesn't. Slight town is the sweet spot, slight scum is also one but I'm looking more at Rej than I am at Nutella ngl.

It's also likely that instead of mafia jumping straight from the gun, they'll follow through and simply support the scum Jay read. Letting a townie be the heavyweight. It's similar to what Rej is doing here.

This post right here:

I am with you, especially because it is easy to give townreads out to you and Dragomir for establishing the wagon on Tony. And suddenly his strongest townreads are you and Drago. LMAO.

Makes me think this.

I have a 3rd reason. I remember that Rej was in TSP's scum reads as D1 progressed. Why I do believe that's bad is how TSP hardly did much in terms of seriously wanting us to see how Rej is scum. Sure he expressed the read but never did much with it. It was incredibly half-assed. This leads me into thinking it was distancing. Rej did the same thing. He sussed TSP but didn't do very much to express it. Their reads on each other looked like distancing. So TSP went from putting Rej in his sweet spot to distancing him which is optimal cause nobody was helping him and if he was lynched, best to make his buddy not go down with him.

[Dragomir]

[VOTE: Rej] aubergine

You know you're ruining half my townread of Rej, right?

What's the problem with Rej in one sentence only? I know you've stated it several times but boil it down to the most basic component.

I assume you think the Rej counterwagon is because town Jay and town Epi actually suspected the other wolf and so Tony voted there as distancing. That's not impossible. Lots of things are more possible with only 2 wolves.

I can't explain it in just one sentence.

[Dragomir]

I don't get how I'm ruining your town read on Rej. I'm just one guy.