Inception [END]

[Lady LambdaDelta]

Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)

Lynching scum is mathematically correct

What are the odds if we lynch town?

If we lynch a townie, townies lose in all worlds. 0/3

I don’t believe you’re actually doing any math and also, you’re proposing that scenario so...

If Juliets is town and Radishes is 3p you are scum

So

I can show you the work on all worlds yeah?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)

Lynching scum is mathematically correct

What are the odds if we lynch town?

If we lynch a townie, townies lose in all worlds. 0/3

I don’t believe you’re actually doing any math and also, you’re proposing that scenario so...

If Juliets is town and Radishes is 3p you are scum

So

I can show you the work on all worlds yeah?

Sure.

[Lady LambdaDelta]

Okay here we go.

If we lynch scum
3 possible outcomes:
Scum was poisoned, town lynches 3p next day Town wins.
Commuter was poisoned, no one was poisoned, same thing.
Doctor was poisoned, 3p wins.
2/3

If we lynch 3p
Scum poisoned, town wins
Commuter poisoned, scum shoots doctor, town loses
Doctor poisoned, scum wins

1/3

If we no lynch
Scum poisoned, town lynches 3p nezt day Town wins
Doctor poisoned, scum shoots 3p scum wins
Commuter poisoned.... Is a scenario of its own

4p night lylo
If poisoned poisons scum, and scum shoots town, 3p wins.
If poisoner poisoned scum and scum shoots 3p town wins.
If poisoner poisons town, town always loses.

1/3 and 1/9 is 4/9

[juliets]

Thank you LLD for spelling this out.

[juliets]

I swear this is the most complicated game I think I've ever played.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I swear this is the most complicated game I think I've ever played.

I promise to find a different comod for my next job and fix that.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.

[juliets]

Lol Jack.

A severe thunderstorm is entering our area so if I disappear ya'll will know what happened.

[juliets]

I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.

Would that be reasonable? To make the 3P bulletproof? I don't think I've ever seen that but maybe it's common and I just don't know it.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.

Would that be reasonable? To make the 3P bulletproof? I don't think I've ever seen that but maybe it's common and I just don't know it.

Idk. I like to make my serial killers immune to nightkill or investigation or both to make up for not having teammates and because it’s easier to balance things with a serial killer who can’t just be shot N1.

We are more likely to see 3(?) missed kills if two of the three nonwolf players have at least some degree of nk protection.

Randomize kills -> Hits the commuter several times is kinda unlikely.

Randomize kills -> Hits the commuter or sk several times is more likely.

Jack intentionally kills -> Hits bulletproof players (max 2 players) 3 times is of course a thing that never happens.

It’s actually annoying me a bit that two players (cause LLD is just a wolf) are honestly considering the idea that I’m a wolf who is throwing away nks and potential mislynches. Like if I was a wolf that wanted to gamethrow, I’d have already done that.

[Lady LambdaDelta]

What you have done is not game throw Jack and any assertions you are by being scum here are plainly lies.

Juliets, please just vote Jack.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What you have done is not game throw Jack and any assertions you are by being scum here are plainly lies.

Juliets, please just vote Jack.

If I’m a wolf, how did I miss 3 kills when there’s only one or two bulletproof players?

If I’m a wolf, what was my play, continually townreading Colin, Radishes, Pawn, Quin and Juliets? Lynching my scumreads only (plus two kills for those two mislynches and an anticipated one poison) would have resulted in at best a lylo of 2 widely townread and perhaps mechanically confirmed townies vs wolfJack.

That’s a loss every damn time. And on top of that, I decided to throw away nightkills? Bullshit.

Juliets should remember me specifically telling people over and over that Colin was town and specifically telling her that Pawn and Quin were mechanically confirmed after she had forgotten. I legitimately fought against all the lynches that would put wolfJack in a position to win. And for what? Pawn getting modkilled could not have been planned for and Quin getting poisoned was a surprise to me as well.

You’re making a case that I’m an idiot who isn’t playing to win. Or rather, you’re not making it. You’re saying pretty please vote Jack because ate is all you have. Logically, there’s no world I’m a wolf.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Plus Jay came out and said the mafia kill would be randomized after Mac was lynched if no kill was submitted.

Kills hit TL (which got a collective “Why?” from the town) and nobody for the next several days while LLD was absent and I was present. Instead of confirmed townies like Quin and Pawn.

LLD is the wolf. It’s obvious af.

[Jackofhearts2005]

At this point, I’m also convinced LLD has not targeted Radishes with a kill intentionally based on her math showing a wolf could shoot 3P and based on her wanting to lynch me.

I’m also convinced she does know which of me and Juliets is which.

I’m further convinced nobody is poisoned. I’m not poisoned. LLD gives a fuck. Juliets is considering going no lynch.

With this in mind, lynching Radishes means LLD shoots me and wins. Lynching LLD means tomorrow it is 2 vs 1 and I’m poisoned and town wins. Lynching nobody is a tossup. Lynching me is...I’m not sure how those numbers work out in 1 vs 1 vs 1 but it doesn’t look great.

So I’m pretty well anticipating willful ignoring of my points from LLD and Radishes to excuse their votes and a coinflip ftw between me and LLD.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck

[Jackofhearts2005]

[VOTE: LLD] aubergine

[juliets]

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] lets say you are town and I end up thinking you are town. LLD and Radishes vote for you. You and I vote for LLD? There's a tie and it's a toss up. Do you see it going any differently? What do you see as the plan if I agree with you?

[juliets]

oh I didn't see your post [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] it may answer my question.

[juliets]

Yes actually it does answer my question.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]

You wouldn’t by any chance want to keep pretending to be town and vote LLD would you?

[Lady LambdaDelta]

@Jackofhearts2005 lets say you are town and I end up thinking you are town. LLD and Radishes vote for you. You and I vote for LLD? There's a tie and it's a toss up. Do you see it going any differently? What do you see as the plan if I agree with you?

Stop making deals with the scum.

[juliets]

Lol [mention]Lady LambdaDelta[/mention], honestly I am just trying to look at all sides of this. Make sure I'm considering all the factors.

[juliets]

Follow up:

Quin and LLD are kicked from DL2 that Day. If scum control 2 votes, how does LLD end up lynched? If LLD is scum, why do her and Mac pseudo-kill her back down to DL1 and then not take any advantage of 'clearing' her for it?

iirc in DL1 Quin speculated that he was the lynch and LLD was the nk in DL2 because he had not had presence in the game. That would also argue for LLD being town UNLESS scum wanted her kicked to DL1 for some reason. I'll look back at Quin's posts to make sure I'm remembering right.

[juliets]

Here it is:

@Creature I see it as a starting place at least.

I'm anxious to hear what @Quin and @Lady LambdaDelta have to say about whether they saw the Nanook and Ty4on flips when they happened the first time. And whatever else they can tell us.

To my understanding we weren't supposed to see flips. We saw boo's but that was some kind of host oopsie. Also Epi (among others, probably - but he's an example) disappeared from our thread yesterday and isn't in this thread so something's going on there.

Maybe they went to a deeper level? As far as I've been able to guess, this level is the top and yours is the next dream in, so maybe another was added

That's likely. Just to clarify, I know pretty much nothing about how this 'sink' works. We had to vote but whoever we ended up lynching didn't die, and then we lost like 11 people at once.

Ok so when Nanook and Ty4on (who replaced nova) joined us here we guessed that Nanook was "NKed" over there to get "kicked" to our dream level, and that Nova/Ty was "lynched" over there (since they told us that he was one of the apparent candidates for people's votes there, though of course they couldn't be sure).

Do you think your side voted to lynch LLD or yourself, and that the other one may have been "NKed"?

I think they would have NK'd lady and lynched me. I townread Lady and my activity was abysmal for a lynch pool of 5 people.

[juliets]

But then there was this from Nanook:

Also while your here Nanook if you could see the other side what is/was your real on Nova/Ty4on

I didn’t really have a read on them before today, I hadn’t read them really. I’d say ty4on is maybe slightly townie but he’s in a tough position to evaluate tbh

Accidentally insa posted by was gonna say
That's not bad to hear I get slight town from them but the other side decided they were evil want to hear more from the next gonna call it drop in

Well, it’s hard to say how true that is—we couldn’t declare votes on the other side or tell other people to vote for a specific person, so nova being the kill doesn’t inherently mean he was found the most scummiest. IIRC Epi and 112 and to a lesser extent radishes and spirityo and Lexi were the most popular scumreads, with nova slotted in thay second tier.

But who knows how votes actually went, it’s really hard to reach too many conclusions on them.

[juliets]

OK [mention]Master Radishes[/mention] I'm interested in what you have to say about LLD. Also Jack is no longer saying we should vote 3P. What do you think about his new way of seeing things, i.e., we should lynch scum.

[juliets]

This is another thing I keep going back to:

You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.

Further, you watched yesterday I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.

Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.

This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.

[juliets]

Does a scum Jack hard defend Mac? He did this when I suspected Mac and suspected me of trying to wrongly influence players that didn't know Mac well.

[juliets]

I re-read my ISO of Jack and his posts from yesterday. I know his game better than I know LLD's so what he's got in his favor is I am reading him as town based on the way he has played. I know they can't both be town and I know I have to decide soon which way to vote. Hopefully there will be some more posting before I have to do so.

[juliets]

I think this is one of the posts that shows Jack was not looking to lynch Pawn, Quin, or Colin all of whom were town (LLD is still unknown). He made a point yesterday about why he would have wanted obvious town (Pawn and Quin) in the game with him in lylo/mylo.

There's too much riding on activity/engagement levels, which is impossible to read correctly.

Let's lynch one of the slankers to teach them all a lesson.

Out of the slankers I would pick Colin.

I’d pick LLD if I was looking for a slanking wolf between her, Pawn, Quin and Colin.

For third party? Fuckifino.

[Jackofhearts2005]

This is another thing I keep going back to:

You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.

Further, you watched yesterday I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.

Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.

This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.

If LLD and LC are both mafia, where does Mac vote if he won’t bus?

I’d rather have LC than LLD on my team at that stage, esp cause LC was a power role and LLD is vanilla.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Mac also tried to lynch me a few times.

[juliets]

This is another thing I keep going back to:

You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.

Further, you watched yesterday I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.

Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.

This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.

If LLD and LC are both mafia, where does Mac vote if he won’t bus?

I’d rather have LC than LLD on my team at that stage, esp cause LC was a power role and LLD is vanilla.

My thought is he would've vote TLib.

[juliets]

Mac also tried to lynch me a few times.

Ok, I didn't ISO Mac so I didn't catch that.

[juliets]

I am thinking I don't have to vote until after we've met with the minister today regarding arrangements for my dad. Surely it won't be a 3 hour meeting.

[juliets]

So where is everyone? I hope there are some posts here when I get back, lol.

[juliets]

Ok I'm back. Two hours to go.

[Master Radishes]

I'm here. Ish.

[juliets]

Oh cool [mention]Master Radishes[/mention]. Any further thoughts today? I feel like you will want to lynch the scum.

[Master Radishes]

I tried to ISO LLD but there's just not much there. And to be honest, if I lose to a slanky LLD I'm not going to lose much sleep over it. (I think, if anything, her behaviour suggests she is 3P, but I can't imagine I'm going to make much headway down that path.)

But I don't have time nor energy to properly devote to this anymore. It's been going for over a month. So going purely based off levels, voting, and general reactions in recent rounds that I can remember, I find scum!Jack to be a likely possibility, scum!LLD to be likely but moreso through PoE, and scum!Juliets to be technically possible but unlikely based on how this round is unfolding (both LLD and Jack cross-FoSing).

So [VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine is getting lynched.

[Master Radishes]

Oh cool Master Radishes. Any further thoughts today? I feel like you will want to lynch the scum.

That's the point of the game, yes.

But either we lynch the scum correctly and 3P wins tomorrow when I'm lynched, or we lynch not-scum and they win now. Town is not winning this game.

[Master Radishes]

Fade me if wrong gl gl

[juliets]

Oh cool Master Radishes. Any further thoughts today? I feel like you will want to lynch the scum.

That's the point of the game, yes.

But either we lynch the scum correctly and 3P wins tomorrow when I'm lynched, or we lynch not-scum and they win now. Town is not winning this game.

Ugh. Such a shame when we are sitting here with two towns, a scum and a 3P.

[Master Radishes]

Go on Juliets. You and I have the swing votes here, so unless you have a convincing reason to make me switch, I plan to sit here. Either vote with me or vote LLD and let it rand for the game.

[juliets]

I was just considering if I wanted to let it rand.

[juliets]

It seems like a chicken way out though.

[Master Radishes]

In fact, do that.

Let's do a game-deciding rand.

[Master Radishes]

BWOOOONNNNGGGGG

[Master Radishes]

Live shot of juliets right now.

[juliets]

LOLOL.

Ok, I'm going to do it. I can't tell between the two of them, one of them has me completely fooled or in their pocket. I'm voting [VOTE: Lady Lamdadelta] aubergine.