
The Polka Heist [GAME OVER]
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 1]
Twist: all of Sloonei's votes have been determined by RNG the whole time
dun dun dah
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 1]
:doubt:TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:12 amTwist: all of Sloonei's votes have been determined by RNG the whole time
dun dun dah
where is your head at now?
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
TSP and Sloonei are the wolves. They're cross voting in case the Sloonei wagon sticks.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
This is such a stupid theory. Why wouldn’t we have just lynched DDL yesterday?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:54 am TSP and Sloonei are the wolves. They're cross voting in case the Sloonei wagon sticks.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 1]
(That was a joke)Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:51 am:doubt:TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:12 amTwist: all of Sloonei's votes have been determined by RNG the whole time
dun dun dah
where is your head at now?
Sloonei and an inactive? Sloonei was around to send in a kill though AND was hyperaware of the deadline. So I’m still thinking block, but haven’t heard anything else to this end.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:44 pm Nobody wants to vote Creature or Dom I guess. All lynches feels like a crap shoot to me. Which is not surprising on a D1 with so many low posters and no shows.
Going to trust Dizzy's read on Sloonei, I think his opinion is importantDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:43 pm Timmer are Sloonei are probably both town. Quin seems to care. I'd say he's likely town.
why you picked up exactly these 2 [mention]Sloonei[/mention] ? i am just curious
looks good for Sloonei indeedDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:41 pmI believe this actually. Also, Sloonei is voting like every person in the game, "what about this? what about this?" He's probably on his own.
the lynch also gravitated around Wilgy.timmer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:35 pmThat's just it, sig and wilgy are people I DO remember as being weird in these ways, that's why I can talk about them. "Wilgy would do that", etc.Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:16 pm There is something to be said about timmer in that most of his post have been directed towards Wilgy and sig's weirdness, both of whom are notorious for being WeIrD. It's not his fault for having memory problems, obviously, but I can't know for sure how easily one can forget their typical Syndicate behaviour.
As for this vote, long con didn't deliver so I'm good with leaving my vote on him, but I'd be game for a creature vote as well as there is nothing there I can point to to speak up about.
Dom... this doesn't seem like a strong Dom game yet but im not sure what a bad Dom game is, this early.

bbl, no pc from now on
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Because your faceTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:57 amThis is such a stupid theory. Why wouldn’t we have just lynched DDL yesterday?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:54 am TSP and Sloonei are the wolves. They're cross voting in case the Sloonei wagon sticks.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
After I moved my vote there were about 30 seconds left in the poll. Are you arguing they coordinated during that time to move a vote to Sloon, risk his life, then have Sloon move his vote to me?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:54 am TSP and Sloonei are the wolves. They're cross voting in case the Sloonei wagon sticks.
And if they didn't coordinate, then why the hell did TSP make such a move to Sloon?
Why don't you just admit you aren't reading anything, not even recent posts? Will make it less annoying to deal with you.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
TSP and Sloonei being teammates is impossible unless they were seriously trying to make Sloonei die yesterday.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Then again the same thing happened to Sloonei last game. But they had 3 mafias alive at that point, not 2. This would be a huge risk to do now.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
And before anyone asks I know there could be more than 3 mafia total but in this setup it's very unlikely and probably too scumsided.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
[VOTE:
Wilgy] aubergine
At least Mac is posting, even if he's just meme'ing instead of playing.
There is a huge chance mafia missed a kill last night and this doesn't say good about Wilgy.
At least Mac is posting, even if he's just meme'ing instead of playing.
There is a huge chance mafia missed a kill last night and this doesn't say good about Wilgy.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
DDL Sloonei TSP scum team battle royaleDragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:26 pm And before anyone asks I know there could be more than 3 mafia total but in this setup it's very unlikely and probably too scumsided.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Jokes on you - it's Michelle Long Con Epignosis for the win.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:28 pmDDL Sloonei TSP scum team battle royaleDragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:26 pm And before anyone asks I know there could be more than 3 mafia total but in this setup it's very unlikely and probably too scumsided.

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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Wilgy sig Mac scum team - limitation: 20 posts a day
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Ooh that’s interesting I’m putting that in the ideas list overpowered scum teams with certain limitations
Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
That would be pretty cool.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:02 pm Ooh that’s interesting I’m putting that in the ideas list overpowered scum teams with certain limitations




Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
So here's my thought, with the number of players and everyone being at least kind off active last phase I don't see mafia not putting in a kill.
So if we think a block occurred whom would be the most likely person blocked?
This starts to get very guessy and I don't tend to do that so I'd rather avoid it.
So if we think a block occurred whom would be the most likely person blocked?
This starts to get very guessy and I don't tend to do that so I'd rather avoid it.




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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
I would expect some strong leadership from the blocker if that were the case.sig wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:14 pm So here's my thought, with the number of players and everyone being at least kind off active last phase I don't see mafia not putting in a kill.
So if we think a block occurred whom would be the most likely person blocked?
This starts to get very guessy and I don't tend to do that so I'd rather avoid it.

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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Why am I alive?
This has been the question of the day since the start of Day 4. The question of multiple days. For some of you the answer is "because you're mafia", but that is not the correct answer. Unfortunately only I (and the actual mafia team) knows this. Fortunately, knowing it lets me look at things with unclouded eyes. In the Sloonei-Is-Town world, there are several theories:
This last point is by far the most satisfying answer to me. And the first person implicated in it is Tony.
Why Tony?
Early Day 4:Tony muses over the two sides of the argument, leaving things open ended. The bottom paragraph seems like it challenges the premise of the "Sloonei is bad" argument, which gives the impression that Tony is leaning toward "Sloonei is being set up", but he fails to provide a satisfying answer to the question of who I'm being set up by. This trend will continue.
Here he begins to reveal his plan a little bit. Sloonei needs to be taken care of soon if you are mafia. But if you go straight for the throat you stand out afterwards, so you need to make sure you're not too close to the button while still making sure it gets pushed.
Tony expresses this theory about a world where I am mafia. But as I think back on the way Day 4 felt, I never got the sense that Tony was paranoid about me. A civilian who is so deeply wrapped up in the problem of Sloonei Being Alive at this stage is, I would think, probably going to be prone to bouts of paranoia and rapid mind-changes. Tony was calm and collected for 48 hours. Other words I could use: clinical and cold. This was a calculated phony theory.
Here is where I began to feel ill at ease about Tony, but I didn't identify it as such right away. So much of Tony's "teammate pairing" exercise seems to hinge on me being town. That entire top paragraph eliminates several targets specifically because they do not align with a world where I am town. The middle paragraph also requires a Town Sloonei to be applicable, along with a Town Epignosis. When I say that Tony's attitude felt off, this is what I mean: I don't sense any uncertainty about my alignment in any of his posts. He entertains the idea that I could be scum, but every word that he says seems to be coming from a position that assumes (knows) that I am town. It's not just this post, but posts like the one that I highlighted earlier; when he does theorize about me being mafia, it comes out in a way that feels almost disinterested and does not appear to linger over his thoughts like it should if he is genuinely trying to suss out this situation.
He drops a vote on me "while he thinks" 3 hours before the deadline. This is the strongest indication so far that Tony actually considers me a suspect.
Tony passes over DDL as a suspect pretty easily here. I'm unclear why, and once again have to question whether I believe his apparent lack of uncertainty here. I also want to highlight, again, the lack of evidence to support Tony's claim that he truly finds me suspicious to this point. While he has remained actively engaged in trying to make sense of my survival, his attempts at understanding have all seemed to gravitate around a world where I am town and I never saw evidence of a genuine development in that read. Tony began by asking aloud what possible team combination would have left me alive. He ended by asking aloud what possible team combination would have left me alive. Meanwhile, he never pursued the alternative ("Why would Sloonei put himself in this situation if he's bad?") with any tenacity. Tony's posts were constructed to appear concerned, but to never arrive at a conclusion so that he could vote for me when the time came. And that's what he did. And the vote itself was the worst part of his day.
Tony's vote
As of 6:38 PM Tony's vote is on me (deadline is shortly after 9 PM). He dismisses DDL as a viable lynch without having engaged in any discussion with or about him. His stance here is that "one of Sloonei or Epi is scum." The above section tries to explain why this statement strikes me as inauthentic. As he had previously failed to articulate a meaningful suspicion of Epi, I'll register an additional point against Tony here: He has now set up a scenario wherein either Sloonei is scum, or the player who pushed most aggressively against him is scum. Remember way back at the beginning when I made the point that "going straight for the throat is too obvious"? Here is Tony demonstrating why that's the case.
At 6:51 PM:"Sloonei should be dead here." If Tony has felt this way at any point prior to this, he has not expressed it. He has pursued answers to the question of my survival, but he has never firmly expressed the position that I "should be dead", even if just to put momentary pressure on me. Indeed, I never felt like he put any pressure on me.
"When he wasn't dead today... he seemed caught off guard and then pulled some self preservation tactics which I wasn't a fan of." Where? When? Why did you not comment on any of this at the time, Tony? You were working closely with me throughout the day but you never expressed any of these concerns, and instead were focused on helping me figure out which pair of scum players could have possibly left me alive. I absolutely cannot believe that this sentence was typed by a civilian TonyStarkPrime after the interactions I had with him earlier in the phase. If any single post in here stands out as the basis for a case against Tony, it is this one. Even if you are reading all of this (and I commend you for that, brave soldier) and you don't agree with me in general, I urge you to take this post, #1473, and try to find validation for it in Tony's previous posts about me on Day 4.
Where were these counterpoints earlier in the day? Now that the deadline is approaching, Tony is twisting the knife.
At 8:51, when I've been the top lynch candidate throughout the day, Tony makes this post. I think someone wanted me dead. What does this even mean?
At 8:55 Tony votes for Epi. He tempers it with this:
At 8:59 he reinforces his skepticism of me. I'm still wondering where this skepticism was in hours 1-45 of the day phase.
At 9:01 he denounces DDL's lynch again because the wagon "just appeared", as if he did not just spend the entire day focused on the scenarios wherein this entire day phase is calculated plan to mislynch me.
At exactly 9:07 (phase end time), Tony sees that "DDL voted Sloonei," so he'll also "vote Sloonei to avoid the no lynch." There is more than one thing wrong with this. Let's start with the point that's right on the face of this post: Tony defers his agency in this vote to two things: DDL's vote came first, and he wants to avoid a tie/no lynch. Tony has expressed a firm suspicion against me for the last hour+. He has spent most of the day talking about me. And yet when it comes down to the last moment when he needs to decide to lynch me (as if there ever was a choice), he does so not because I am the right person to be lynched, but because DDL did it first, and he doesn't want there to be a tie. Yuck. Own your vote.
Second: The timing of this vote. Tony and I were both voting for Epi for a little while towards the end of the day (Tony's vote at 8:55, mine at 8:25). He cast a silent (and bizarre) vote for Michelle somewhere in the last minute or two, and then at near the very last moment, he switched his vote back to me to put me up in the poll by a count of 4-3. I was wary of something like this happening, so I'd stopped posting and was only keeping an eye on the poll, so I was able to get my preservation vote onto DDL in time just before the thread locked. The timing felt shady, and that is what got me looking at Tony initially. My immediate impression was that he slipped this vote in at the last moment hoping that I would not have time to retaliate. He gets his Sloonei lynch and he doesn't look too nefarious for doing it. He did not spend the day pushing for the case, but had come around to it towards the end. His vote was cast, not because Sloonei was definitely bad, but because we otherwise would have had a No Lynch, and a No Lynch is bad.
This has been the question of the day since the start of Day 4. The question of multiple days. For some of you the answer is "because you're mafia", but that is not the correct answer. Unfortunately only I (and the actual mafia team) knows this. Fortunately, knowing it lets me look at things with unclouded eyes. In the Sloonei-Is-Town world, there are several theories:
- Mafia left me alive so that they could push a lynch against me.
- Mafia left me alive because they don't care about the situation/aren't aware of my status as a consensus town read before Day 4.
- Mafia left me alive because my survival would be most likely to sow paranoia and prompt other civilians to push a lynch against me.
This last point is by far the most satisfying answer to me. And the first person implicated in it is Tony.
Why Tony?
Early Day 4:
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
A vote for Epi, but not because he's the most aggressive Sloonei opponent.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:12 pm Vote: Epi
Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.
Tony asks this question. I answered that they "let us fight" and he followed by asking if they'd "sit back", but I think the answer to that question is "No." If they want me lynched, they're going to meddle. They're just not going to be obvious about it.
Spoiler: show
He drops a vote on me "while he thinks" 3 hours before the deadline. This is the strongest indication so far that Tony actually considers me a suspect.
Spoiler: show
Tony's vote
As of 6:38 PM Tony's vote is on me (deadline is shortly after 9 PM). He dismisses DDL as a viable lynch without having engaged in any discussion with or about him. His stance here is that "one of Sloonei or Epi is scum." The above section tries to explain why this statement strikes me as inauthentic. As he had previously failed to articulate a meaningful suspicion of Epi, I'll register an additional point against Tony here: He has now set up a scenario wherein either Sloonei is scum, or the player who pushed most aggressively against him is scum. Remember way back at the beginning when I made the point that "going straight for the throat is too obvious"? Here is Tony demonstrating why that's the case.
At 6:51 PM:
Spoiler: show
"When he wasn't dead today... he seemed caught off guard and then pulled some self preservation tactics which I wasn't a fan of." Where? When? Why did you not comment on any of this at the time, Tony? You were working closely with me throughout the day but you never expressed any of these concerns, and instead were focused on helping me figure out which pair of scum players could have possibly left me alive. I absolutely cannot believe that this sentence was typed by a civilian TonyStarkPrime after the interactions I had with him earlier in the phase. If any single post in here stands out as the basis for a case against Tony, it is this one. Even if you are reading all of this (and I commend you for that, brave soldier) and you don't agree with me in general, I urge you to take this post, #1473, and try to find validation for it in Tony's previous posts about me on Day 4.
Spoiler: show
At 8:51, when I've been the top lynch candidate throughout the day, Tony makes this post. I think someone wanted me dead. What does this even mean?
At 8:55 Tony votes for Epi. He tempers it with this:
Yes, I agree. It is once again unlikely that scum would be that aggressive. They'd take the more measured route.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 pm Epi is playing a pretty aggressive gambit if he’s scum though

At 8:59 he reinforces his skepticism of me. I'm still wondering where this skepticism was in hours 1-45 of the day phase.
At 9:01 he denounces DDL's lynch again because the wagon "just appeared", as if he did not just spend the entire day focused on the scenarios wherein this entire day phase is calculated plan to mislynch me.
At exactly 9:07 (phase end time), Tony sees that "DDL voted Sloonei," so he'll also "vote Sloonei to avoid the no lynch." There is more than one thing wrong with this. Let's start with the point that's right on the face of this post: Tony defers his agency in this vote to two things: DDL's vote came first, and he wants to avoid a tie/no lynch. Tony has expressed a firm suspicion against me for the last hour+. He has spent most of the day talking about me. And yet when it comes down to the last moment when he needs to decide to lynch me (as if there ever was a choice), he does so not because I am the right person to be lynched, but because DDL did it first, and he doesn't want there to be a tie. Yuck. Own your vote.
Second: The timing of this vote. Tony and I were both voting for Epi for a little while towards the end of the day (Tony's vote at 8:55, mine at 8:25). He cast a silent (and bizarre) vote for Michelle somewhere in the last minute or two, and then at near the very last moment, he switched his vote back to me to put me up in the poll by a count of 4-3. I was wary of something like this happening, so I'd stopped posting and was only keeping an eye on the poll, so I was able to get my preservation vote onto DDL in time just before the thread locked. The timing felt shady, and that is what got me looking at Tony initially. My immediate impression was that he slipped this vote in at the last moment hoping that I would not have time to retaliate. He gets his Sloonei lynch and he doesn't look too nefarious for doing it. He did not spend the day pushing for the case, but had come around to it towards the end. His vote was cast, not because Sloonei was definitely bad, but because we otherwise would have had a No Lynch, and a No Lynch is bad.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
A bonus point about Tony's treatment of Epi yesterday.
At one point, Tony says this:
At another point, Tony says this:
I've also got things to say about Tony earlier in the game, but Day 4 is the crux of my case so I wanted to focus on that first and foremost.
At one point, Tony says this:
The implication is that Epignosis is a viable suspect because he has pushed the case against me that day.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:46 pm Also I’m struggling to see a world where not one of Epi or Sloonei is scum and I think I’m leaning towards the latter.
At another point, Tony says this:
This is a different basis for suspicion. This avoids accusing Epi via his link to the case against me, but instead it accuses him because of a contrary narrative (one which I started, for the record) that he was playing a passive game. The contradiction is not direct, but I want to note that on the one hand, Tony seemed to be suggesting that "Epi vs. Sloonei" was a thing to be wary of, but when it came time to justify his vote for Epi, this apparently does not factor in, and attention is given to something else entirely. And that "something else" doesn't hold much water anyway.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:21 pmThe logic isn’t that Epi is bad because he’s part of the lynches, the argument is he’s bad because a narrative emerged that he wasn’t doing anything, when he has been.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:35 amI hate this logic. Being in town lynches correlates very little with actually being scum.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:12 pm Vote: Epi
Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.
That said, this fact is giving me pause about jumping on the Sloonei wagon, because it would be the third consecutive time I followed an Epi case. If Epi is bad he's playing me 3 times. But I'm itching to break Sloonei just to see what's inside.
I've also got things to say about Tony earlier in the game, but Day 4 is the crux of my case so I wanted to focus on that first and foremost.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
There is no possible mafia team that fails to submit a night kill last night. A kill was prevented somehow.sig wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:14 pm So here's my thought, with the number of players and everyone being at least kind off active last phase I don't see mafia not putting in a kill.
So if we think a block occurred whom would be the most likely person blocked?
This starts to get very guessy and I don't tend to do that so I'd rather avoid it.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
This is fair. in this case I was like “hmm what’s up with Epi” and I posted my thoughts about something (the second thing you have quoted) and on digging into this I found that there was no case in either direction. I didn’t comment On that directly but I think I brought it up again.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:37 pm A bonus point about Tony's treatment of Epi yesterday.
At one point, Tony says this:The implication is that Epignosis is a viable suspect because he has pushed the case against me that day.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:46 pm Also I’m struggling to see a world where not one of Epi or Sloonei is scum and I think I’m leaning towards the latter.
At another point, Tony says this:This is a different basis for suspicion. This avoids accusing Epi via his link to the case against me, but instead it accuses him because of a contrary narrative (one which I started, for the record) that he was playing a passive game. The contradiction is not direct, but I want to note that on the one hand, Tony seemed to be suggesting that "Epi vs. Sloonei" was a thing to be wary of, but when it came time to justify his vote for Epi, this apparently does not factor in, and attention is given to something else entirely. And that "something else" doesn't hold much water anyway.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:21 pmThe logic isn’t that Epi is bad because he’s part of the lynches, the argument is he’s bad because a narrative emerged that he wasn’t doing anything, when he has been.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:35 amI hate this logic. Being in town lynches correlates very little with actually being scum.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:12 pm Vote: Epi
Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.
That said, this fact is giving me pause about jumping on the Sloonei wagon, because it would be the third consecutive time I followed an Epi case. If Epi is bad he's playing me 3 times. But I'm itching to break Sloonei just to see what's inside.
I've also got things to say about Tony earlier in the game, but Day 4 is the crux of my case so I wanted to focus on that first and foremost.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
I don’t have the time to respond to the wall right now. It’s impressive but kinda weird.
anyways
“Clinical and cold”
Thank you
“Not a bad Vote”
That’s right
anyways
“Clinical and cold”
Thank you
“Not a bad Vote”
That’s right
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
New from CNN: Sloonei calls TSP “clinical and cold” behind closed doors. TSP campaign releases bold statement of “no comment”.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
You’re gonna have to do a lot better than “kinda weird”.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:35 pm Why am I alive?
This has been the question of the day since the start of Day 4. The question of multiple days. For some of you the answer is "because you're mafia", but that is not the correct answer. Unfortunately only I (and the actual mafia team) knows this. Fortunately, knowing it lets me look at things with unclouded eyes. In the Sloonei-Is-Town world, there are several theories:
I have trouble seeing this one. It's a huge gambit and I'm historically not an easy lynch. Even if successful, it leaves them highly exposed once I flip town. So that's not it. If this was the case, Epignosis would be the first person implicated. He is a calculated player when he's mafia, but this would be too bold and too reckless for an Epignosis play.
- Mafia left me alive so that they could push a lynch against me.
Nah. They had clearly and intentionally picked off three out of the four players who were being bunched together as pseudo-confirmed town before leaving me, the most vocal of that bunch, alive. It was a deliberate choice to leave Sloonei as the last survivor from that group. Therefore...
- Mafia left me alive because they don't care about the situation/aren't aware of my status as a consensus town read before Day 4.
In this scenario the mafia team is orchestrating a context in which I will become a top suspect naturally and without them having the dirty their hands in the thread. They'll let Epignosis plunge down the rabbit hole and hope that enough people follow. Maybe they'll even stoke the flames by publicly speculating about this whole Why Is Sloonei Alive? thing, being careful not to push too hard on it and give away their intentions. By keeping the idea of it in circulation without committing to it, they ensure that it remains a topic of conversation, an idea in peoples' minds, but they can look like they're solving the game and not look like they're pushing too hard for a particular lynch. It's also an easier plan to follow if one of the members of the scum team has already established themselves as opposed to me without much reason, but that's a point for a later case.
- Mafia left me alive because my survival would be most likely to sow paranoia and prompt other civilians to push a lynch against me.
This last point is by far the most satisfying answer to me. And the first person implicated in it is Tony.
this is backwards derived. This is “what happened -> ahh that’s clearly what mafia wanted”. And that happens to work into your argument? Why couldn’t scum just not care? What if scum benefitted from the cases you were making while you were alive?
Why Tony?
Early Day 4:Tony muses over the two sides of the argument, leaving things open ended. The bottom paragraph seems like it challenges the premise of the "Sloonei is bad" argument, which gives the impression that Tony is leaning toward "Sloonei is being set up", but he fails to provide a satisfying answer to the question of who I'm being set up by. This trend will continue.Spoiler: show
It does challenge Sloonei is bad. It does fail to provide a satisfying answer. Oh well.
It also grapples with the question that you later say I don’t grapple with.
Here he begins to reveal his plan a little bit. Sloonei needs to be taken care of soon if you are mafia. But if you go straight for the throat you stand out afterwards, so you need to make sure you're not too close to the button while still making sure it gets pushed.Spoiler: show
Ahh perry the platypus you have fallen into my trap now let me tell you my secret plan or something.
Tony expresses this theory about a world where I am mafia. But as I think back on the way Day 4 felt, I never got the sense that Tony was paranoid about me. A civilian who is so deeply wrapped up in the problem of Sloonei Being Alive at this stage is, I would think, probably going to be prone to bouts of paranoia and rapid mind-changes. Tony was calm and collected for 48 hours. Other words I could use: clinical and cold. This was a calculated phony theory.Spoiler: show
this is contrary to all of the posts I’m quoted in not particularly hereA vote for Epi, but not because he's the most aggressive Sloonei opponent.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:12 pm Vote: Epi
Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.
Tony asks this question. I answered that they "let us fight" and he followed by asking if they'd "sit back", but I think the answer to that question is "No." If they want me lynched, they're going to meddle. They're just not going to be obvious about it.
Here is where I began to feel ill at ease about Tony, but I didn't identify it as such right away. So much of Tony's "teammate pairing" exercise seems to hinge on me being town. That entire top paragraph eliminates several targets specifically because they do not align with a world where I am town. The middle paragraph also requires a Town Sloonei to be applicable, along with a Town Epignosis.Spoiler: show
Sloonei mad he only occupies one row on the table? I guess? I talk about Sloonei being scum in the same paragraph where he says “I assume he’s town”.
When I say that Tony's attitude felt off, this is what I mean: I don't sense any uncertainty about my alignment in any of his posts. He entertains the idea that I could be scum, but every word that he says seems to be coming from a position that assumes (knows) that I am town. It's not just this post, but posts like the one that I highlighted earlier; when he does theorize about me being mafia, it comes out in a way that feels almost disinterested and does not appear to linger over his thoughts like it should if he is genuinely trying to suss out this situation.
I don’t know how to linger over thoughts in a text based game in real life I just walked around my kitchen. I don’t sit around typing out “I think Sloonei is scum in this second” and then “I think Sloonei is town”
He drops a vote on me "while he thinks" 3 hours before the deadline. This is the strongest indication so far that Tony actually considers me a suspect.
So I started all of the list of possible scum options lists with Sloonei is scum just for ... academic integrity? Panicky.
Tony passes over DDL as a suspect pretty easily here. I'm unclear why, and once again have to question whether I believe his apparent lack of uncertainty here.Spoiler: show
I’ve emphasized several points about this this game.
I also want to highlight, again, the lack of evidence to support Tony's claim that he truly finds me suspicious to this point. While he has remained actively engaged in trying to make sense of my survival, his attempts at understanding have all seemed to gravitate around a world where I am town and I never saw evidence of a genuine development in that read.
TSP makes no development in understanding how I could be town and then decided to vote for me. I don’t understand.
Tony
began by asking aloud what possible team combination would have left me alive. He ended by asking aloud what possible team combination would have left me alive.
Meanwhile, he never pursued the alternative ("Why would Sloonei put himself in this situation if he's bad?") with any tenacity.
I did that. You quoted it. The question has an answer.
Tony's posts were constructed to appear concerned, but to never arrive at a conclusion so that he could vote for me when the time came. And that's what he did. And the vote itself was the worst part of his day.
Tony's vote
As of 6:38 PM Tony's vote is on me (deadline is shortly after 9 PM). He dismisses DDL as a viable lynch without having engaged in any discussion with or about him. His stance here is that "one of Sloonei or Epi is scum." The above section tries to explain why this statement strikes me as inauthentic. As he had previously failed to articulate a meaningful suspicion of Epi, I'll register an additional point against Tony here: He has now set up a scenario wherein either Sloonei is scum, or the player who pushed most aggressively against him is scum. Remember way back at the beginning when I made the point that "going straight for the throat is too obvious"? Here is Tony demonstrating why that's the case.
I agree that saying that one of Sloonei or Epi is scum is simplistic.
At 6:51 PM:"Sloonei should be dead here." If Tony has felt this way at any point prior to this, he has not expressed it.Spoiler: show
WE STARTED THE DAY WITH THIS
He has pursued answers to the question of my survival, but he has never firmly expressed the position that I "should be dead", even if just to put momentary pressure on me. Indeed, I never felt like he put any pressure on me.
Panicky
"When he wasn't dead today... he seemed caught off guard and then pulled some self preservation tactics which I wasn't a fan of." Where? When? Why did you not comment on any of this at the time, Tony?
I am now. I did comment on some of them. I can comment on more. I’m pretty sure I did call some out.
You were working closely with me throughout the day but you never expressed any of these concerns, and instead were focused on helping me figure out which pair of scum players could have possibly left me alive. I absolutely cannot believe that this sentence was typed by a civilian TonyStarkPrime after the interactions I had with him earlier in the phase.
I was too nice is what this whole thing boils down to. I worked “closely with you” because you were the only player around for most of the day.
If any single post in here stands out as the basis for a case against Tony, it is this one. Even if you are reading all of this (and I commend you for that, brave soldier) and you don't agree with me in general, I urge you to take this post, #1473, and try to find validation for it in Tony's previous posts about me on Day 4.
Where were these counterpoints earlier in the day? Now that the deadline is approaching, Tony is twisting the knife.Spoiler: show
Why didn’t he write this case refuting why I was town EARLIER is certainly a take if you think I want you to get lynched from the get go, which is your premise of me being scum
At 8:51, when I've been the top lynch candidate throughout the day, Tony makes this post. I think someone wanted me dead. What does this even mean?
At 8:55 Tony votes for Epi. He tempers it with this:Yes, I agree. It is once again unlikely that scum would be that aggressive. They'd take the more measured route.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 pm Epi is playing a pretty aggressive gambit if he’s scum though![]()
At 8:59 he reinforces his skepticism of me. I'm still wondering where this skepticism was in hours 1-45 of the day phase.
At 9:01 he denounces DDL's lynch again because the wagon "just appeared", as if he did not just spend the entire day focused on the scenarios wherein this entire day phase is calculated plan to mislynch me.
Yours developed, DDL’s was like 4 back to back posts. You know that.
At exactly 9:07 (phase end time), Tony sees that "DDL voted Sloonei," so he'll also "vote Sloonei to avoid the no lynch." There is more than one thing wrong with this. Let's start with the point that's right on the face of this post: Tony defers his agency in this vote to two things: DDL's vote came first, and he wants to avoid a tie/no lynch. Tony has expressed a firm suspicion against me for the last hour+. He has spent most of the day talking about me. And yet when it comes down to the last moment when he needs to decide to lynch me (as if there ever was a choice), he does so not because I am the right person to be lynched, but because DDL did it first, and he doesn't want there to be a tie. Yuck. Own your vote.
Second: The timing of this vote. Tony and I were both voting for Epi for a little while towards the end of the day (Tony's vote at 8:55, mine at 8:25). He cast a silent (and bizarre) vote for Michelle somewhere in the last minute or two, and then at near the very last moment, he switched his vote back to me to put me up in the poll by a count of 4-3. I was wary of something like this happening, so I'd stopped posting and was only keeping an eye on the poll, so I was able to get my preservation vote onto DDL in time just before the thread locked. The timing felt shady, and that is what got me looking at Tony initially. My immediate impression was that he slipped this vote in at the last moment hoping that I would not have time to retaliate. He gets his Sloonei lynch and he doesn't look too nefarious for doing it. He did not spend the day pushing for the case, but had come around to it towards the end. His vote was cast, not because Sloonei was definitely bad, but because we otherwise would have had a No Lynch, and a No Lynch is bad.
Also a take. This is just wrong. Or at least hinging on the vote is wrong. The rest of the argument is “TSP set things up to hinge on the vote”. Sloonei also presumably would have voted for DDL, his supposed main scum read if it were 3-3 so all of this is moot. He was watching the poll to watch for DDL, not a surprise lynch attempt.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Like it doesn’t make sense
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
My laptop just died as I was wrapping up a long reply post.
Tony is bad.
Tony is bad.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Responding with only the major points of what was originally a much longer post:
2) That's not my point anyway. My point is that you pursued an entire exercise, complete with a color coded chart, and in doing so it seemed you seemed to be focused on identifying scum teams that did not include me. If I was your #1 suspect, there did not seem to be much emphasis on identifying my partner. That is my point again later:
The crux of my argument is that point at the end: Tony and I were the two most active players in the thread on Day 4, at least in the early portion of the phase. He claims, here and at the end of Day 4, that I was his top suspect and that this was articulated early in the day. But both as I was interacting with him in real time AND as I look back on his activity now, I do not sense that he was putting any pressure on me or that he was in any way truly skeptical about me. His vote and his claims that he challenged me on things are not supported by his activity.
This is not backwards. This was the position I was leaning towards throughout the day. Observe:TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:43 pmthis is backwards derived. This is “what happened -> ahh that’s clearly what mafia wanted”. And that happens to work into your argument? Why couldn’t scum just not care? What if scum benefitted from the cases you were making while you were alive?This last point is by far the most satisfying answer to me. And the first person implicated in it is Tony.
Spoiler: show
1) This is what you had to say about the possibility of me being scum: "Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever." Please correct me if I'm missing something. But that does not strike me as a particularly strong consideration.Sloonei mad he only occupies one row on the table? I guess? I talk about Sloonei being scum in the same paragraph where he says “I assume he’s town”.Here is where I began to feel ill at ease about Tony, but I didn't identify it as such right away. So much of Tony's "teammate pairing" exercise seems to hinge on me being town. That entire top paragraph eliminates several targets specifically because they do not align with a world where I am town. The middle paragraph also requires a Town Sloonei to be applicable, along with a Town Epignosis.
2) That's not my point anyway. My point is that you pursued an entire exercise, complete with a color coded chart, and in doing so it seemed you seemed to be focused on identifying scum teams that did not include me. If I was your #1 suspect, there did not seem to be much emphasis on identifying my partner. That is my point again later:
You linger on things by actively engaging in a discussion of those ideas, like you have with your chart and your continued discussion of "Who leaves sloonei alive?". Compare the amount of time you spent discussing that with the amount of time you spent discussing why I would make the three kills that we've had in this game. You were focused on the former. You did not appear to care about the latter. If you were genuinely trying to read me, you would have cared about both. And if I was your top suspect you definitely should have been able to clearly articulate and argue for an answer to the latter.I don’t know how to linger over thoughts in a text based game in real life I just walked around my kitchen. I don’t sit around typing out “I think Sloonei is scum in this second” and then “I think Sloonei is town”When I say that Tony's attitude felt off, this is what I mean: I don't sense any uncertainty about my alignment in any of his posts. He entertains the idea that I could be scum, but every word that he says seems to be coming from a position that assumes (knows) that I am town. It's not just this post, but posts like the one that I highlighted earlier; when he does theorize about me being mafia, it comes out in a way that feels almost disinterested and does not appear to linger over his thoughts like it should if he is genuinely trying to suss out this situation.
"With tenacity" is the key phrase here. Again, you addressed this question in a few isolated posts (2, maybe 3 going by memory), but you never followed it up or pursued it in a meaningful way. My impression is that your read on me failed to progress throughout the day, and your vote for me looks out of place when compared to the content of your posts.I did that. You quoted it. The question has an answer.Meanwhile, he never pursued the alternative ("Why would Sloonei put himself in this situation if he's bad?") with any tenacity.
To the first point: If you called me out for my "preservation tactics" which you did not like during Day 4, please point that out to me. I do not. This leads into the second point here: you were not being too nice. You simply were not applying pressure to me, you were not challenging me. If anything you were encouraging me to go deeper down the rabbit hole by working with me on it. We were the only two people here for a while, that's true. But you never used that steamy intimacy to apply any pressure on me, to get answers out of me, to ask me challenging questions. We traded speculation about why I wasn't dead.I was too nice is what this whole thing boils down to. I worked “closely with you” because you were the only player around for most of the day.You were working closely with me throughout the day but you never expressed any of these concerns, and instead were focused on helping me figure out which pair of scum players could have possibly left me alive. I absolutely cannot believe that this sentence was typed by a civilian TonyStarkPrime after the interactions I had with him earlier in the phase.I am now. I did comment on some of them. I can comment on more. I’m pretty sure I did call some out."When he wasn't dead today... he seemed caught off guard and then pulled some self preservation tactics which I wasn't a fan of." Where? When? Why did you not comment on any of this at the time, Tony?
The crux of my argument is that point at the end: Tony and I were the two most active players in the thread on Day 4, at least in the early portion of the phase. He claims, here and at the end of Day 4, that I was his top suspect and that this was articulated early in the day. But both as I was interacting with him in real time AND as I look back on his activity now, I do not sense that he was putting any pressure on me or that he was in any way truly skeptical about me. His vote and his claims that he challenged me on things are not supported by his activity.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
EBWOP: "To the first point: If you called me out for my "preservation tactics" which you did not like during Day 4, please point that out to me. I do not see it."
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
This is some dense stuff and I have truly only read some of it. So I can only comment on thoughts about those parts.
I do think that "putting pressure" on someone is more likely to manifest when that person seems to be skating by. An attempt to deepen their involvement. If the two of you were the most active players, why would you need pressure applied?
Saying he challenged you on things when he didn't is not the best thing to do. Tony?Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:12 pmThe crux of my argument is that point at the end: Tony and I were the two most active players in the thread on Day 4, at least in the early portion of the phase. He claims, here and at the end of Day 4, that I was his top suspect and that this was articulated early in the day. But both as I was interacting with him in real time AND as I look back on his activity now, I do not sense that he was putting any pressure on me or that he was in any way truly skeptical about me. His vote and his claims that he challenged me on things are not supported by his activity.
I do think that "putting pressure" on someone is more likely to manifest when that person seems to be skating by. An attempt to deepen their involvement. If the two of you were the most active players, why would you need pressure applied?

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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
“Putting pressure” on a player to me means challenging them and making them respond to difficult questions and prompts.
Tony says/implies that he suspected me throughout the day. If that is the case, I would have expected him to talk about that suspicion and to get me to talk about the things he suspected me for. He had an abundance of opportunities to do that. He never did.
Tony says/implies that he suspected me throughout the day. If that is the case, I would have expected him to talk about that suspicion and to get me to talk about the things he suspected me for. He had an abundance of opportunities to do that. He never did.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
1TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:47 amStifling debate is a negative point for Sloonei but it’s fair?
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
I still don't know what you meant by this post but I think you misunderstood my intent.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:27 pm1TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:47 amStifling debate is a negative point for Sloonei but it’s fair?
It was my first expression of skepticism against you. I wasn't serious about it at the time, but it was an idea I was entertaining.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
Haven't read anything but
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
I'll be more informed later. Maybe. It's exam week. I hate exam week.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
I understood. It’s unreasonable. You know it. It’s “talking about this is scum.”Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:31 pmI still don't know what you meant by this post but I think you misunderstood my intent.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:27 pm1TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:47 amStifling debate is a negative point for Sloonei but it’s fair?
It was my first expression of skepticism against you. I wasn't serious about it at the time, but it was an idea I was entertaining.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
I know I mentioned this somewhere but this is literally a “I don’t want to be lynched” tactic. It has no clear town purpose. But it pretends to.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
Did I at any point stifle the discussion about me during the day?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:38 pmI understood. It’s unreasonable. You know it. It’s “talking about this is scum.”Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:31 pmI still don't know what you meant by this post but I think you misunderstood my intent.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:27 pm1TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:47 amStifling debate is a negative point for Sloonei but it’s fair?
It was my first expression of skepticism against you. I wasn't serious about it at the time, but it was an idea I was entertaining.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
Of course I don't want to be lynched.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:41 pmI know I mentioned this somewhere but this is literally a “I don’t want to be lynched” tactic. It has no clear town purpose. But it pretends to.
I asked this question because I wanted players to give their reads on me because I was operating under the assumption that I was left alive to be dangled as mislynch bait. Making people talk about me is my way of regaining some control over the situation rather than letting the mafia team's terms dictate the action
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
I’m not gonna quote the whole thing but RE: not properly considering Mac/Sloonei: do you think I improperly tossed this away? Given your interactions I guess maybe I did but I still I don’t think it’s seriously worth consideration
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 4]
Here's where you "talked about it." If this is a callout, I'm not feeling any pressure.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:46 pmSo if everyone commits to calling you town because you make them then you won’t be lynched, is what you’re banking on.
You also suggested in your previous "callout" that my point was "fair?" so I again am not feeling any pressure.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
This is not what I care about.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:44 pm I’m not gonna quote the whole thing but RE: not properly considering Mac/Sloonei: do you think I improperly tossed this away? Given your interactions I guess maybe I did but I still I don’t think it’s seriously worth consideration
You mentioned me in conjunction with Mac in your analysis. That was the extent of your consideration of me as scum. Your response was "I talk about Sloonei being scum in the same paragraph where he says 'I assume he’s town'." I was just highlighting why that's not a satisfying point at all.
If I was your top suspect yesterday, I saw you doing very little work to A) promote that idea and B) produce any more meaningful content around it.
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Re: The Polka Heist [DAY 5]
paragraph 1) I mean okay if you are not satisfied with me saying that you’re probably town if Mac is scum you can both be lynchedSloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:50 pmThis is not what I care about.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:44 pm I’m not gonna quote the whole thing but RE: not properly considering Mac/Sloonei: do you think I improperly tossed this away? Given your interactions I guess maybe I did but I still I don’t think it’s seriously worth consideration
You mentioned me in conjunction with Mac in your analysis. That was the extent of your consideration of me as scum. Your response was "I talk about Sloonei being scum in the same paragraph where he says 'I assume he’s town'." I was just highlighting why that's not a satisfying point at all.
If I was your top suspect yesterday, I saw you doing very little work to A) promote that idea and B) produce any more meaningful content around it.
paragraph 2) But you weren’t.