Champions 2019 - Crisis on The Syndicate [GAME OVER]

[ColinIsCool]

Colin is probably the player I’ve driven the most mislynches against historically. I’m wary of that. None of his posts have stood out to me, but I’ve been operating at less than full capacity the last 72 hours.

G-man has been underwhelming. That becomes more suspicious the later we get into the game.

I think the fact that I play very carelessly enables me to say things that don’t make sense to other people which tends to lead to suspicion/a lynch. You’d think it’d be the opposite, but ...

[ColinIsCool]

Remember folks:

I’m not bad, I’m bad at Mafia.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] who bad?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tony's posts make me feel nothing. I don't think he seems inauthentic, but I also don't see any posts that would be uncomfortable to produce by mafia fingers. Net negative.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei who bad?

Radishes remains suspect #1. I’m starting to agree with the G-man suspicion as well. Other than that I feel like I still have a lot of things left to figure out.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I like Dom more. I think Dom has taken on an incisive, fierce tone that feels both authentic and generally civilian in character.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't trust speedchuck.

[Sloonei]

I like Dom more. I think Dom has taken on an incisive, fierce tone that feels both authentic and generally civilian in character.

What do you make of the whole dom/ted thing on the last page?

[juliets]

I don't trust speedchuck.

Any reasons you can share at the moment?

[sig]

Okay, let’s do this! The secret portion of my role card says that I am the champion of this game. Sorry to cut this game so short, especially after all that time waiting through sign-ups, but I win. You can go home now.

Okay so, Gman super excited to play, making jokes ect. Buuuuut, his excitement here doesn't seem to correlate to game play.

Orange, aggedJimmyJay? I make three posts, and that’s enough to land me in orange instead of neutral gray?

In a way, I guess I see it, what with the diarrhea-of-the-mouth-inducing playstyle you and others prefer. You have offended me, sir, and now I intend to bury myself in the deepest red of your rainbow reads so that I may ignore your demands for more content.

This post smells bad.

Over the top? Yep. This was me needling Jay.

Hey I think G-man has decent odds at flipping scum by the way, anyone wanna talk about it?

Also, MR has been talked about by everyone early game, everyone threw jabs at him but he never got hard pushed so it makes me happier to see his wagon grow.

So was G-Man, but a much lower percentage.

Orange, JaggedJimmyJay? I make three posts, and that’s enough to land me in orange instead of neutral gray?

In a way, I guess I see it, what with the diarrhea-of-the-mouth-inducing playstyle you and others prefer. You have offended me, sir, and now I intend to bury myself in the deepest red of your rainbow reads so that I may ignore your demands for more content.

This post comes to mind as a scum post. I need to check if triple J commented anything on this because it's a horribad post

Outstanding work. You got me. I surrender.

I see being busy, I don't think he's using that as an excuse to lurk. However, the sarcasm here is pingy, definitely something I'm not a fan of.

G-Man good

could be turbup, what you see

Hes one of those civs who won't lose you the game but he may not win it for you either. He's the Ryan tannehil of civilians

Ouch. While not an incorrect assessment of my civvie sleuthing skills when I don’t have info gathering powers, as a Miami Dolphins fan, that comparison cuts deep.

Anyway, let’s talk about the roles, shall we? I see two roles that can ‘send orders’ to a civ. One is a civ role but the other is a baddie. On the one hand, there is potential for civs to become known to another civ. On the other hand, complying risks letting a baddie hijack your power.

Has anyone played with this kind of role mirrored in this way before? My gut says complying should probably be done based on how powerful a player thinks their role is. Thoughts?

I think someone else touched on this, but the idea Gman choices to do this right now is odd. At the very least I'd think he'd wanna talk about EOD type stuff.



SO Overall not many posts by Gman, out of his posts alot are fluffy stuff. Did seem excited to play and all, but haven't done much but some minor mechanic talk. Overall not a fan of his response to Ted's poke or what he's decided to talk about.

So he'll be going from Null to Mafia Lean: I'd like a read lists soon, from him soon,but could place my vote here tomorrow.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've had a positive perspective of Epignosis since the early stage, with these as the starting point:

Spoiler: show

Epignosis is a confirmed mafia teammate of nutella.

That's correct.

There you have it, gang.

Yep.

I don't think this is standard-fare wine. Epi morphed my stupid comment (confirmed teammate of nutella) into a stupid response that itself could incite bogus takes from anyone left to interpret them. I don't think anything came of that, but it suits the sort of early-game motion we've seen from his civilian fingers in recent memory. I don't necessarily refer to false wine, but more generally to making unfounded claims or saying questionable things deliberately to see how it makes the game move.

Since that initial moment I haven't been bothered by Epi's takes. His suspicion of juliets was quite on-brand. He looks the part.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I like Dom more. I think Dom has taken on an incisive, fierce tone that feels both authentic and generally civilian in character.

What do you make of the whole dom/ted thing on the last page?

I don't trust speedchuck.

Any reasons you can share at the moment?

I'm about to begin a bunch of lab work, so I will try to get to your questions in a bit if I can.

[juliets]

I like Dom more. I think Dom has taken on an incisive, fierce tone that feels both authentic and generally civilian in character.

What do you make of the whole dom/ted thing on the last page?

I don't trust speedchuck.

Any reasons you can share at the moment?

I'm about to begin a bunch of lab work, so I will try to get to your questions in a bit if I can.

Fine with me JJJ.

[Sloonei]

I like Dom more. I think Dom has taken on an incisive, fierce tone that feels both authentic and generally civilian in character.

What do you make of the whole dom/ted thing on the last page?

I don't trust speedchuck.

Any reasons you can share at the moment?

I'm about to begin a bunch of lab work, so I will try to get to your questions in a bit if I can.

Aight. I’m also interested in your thoughts on ted’s responses to my follow up questions after the exchange with dom.

[Sloonei]

I don’t remember much of anything that Epi has said in this game. That is probably more my fault than his.

[sig]

@tedxtr
Let's say Radishes is out. You can't vote for them.

For whom do you vote and why?

You’re avoiding this question.
Why?

You and Mac are both avoiding my questions and content. And you’d follow Mac on a vote on me in an instant.
Lazy play. In bad faith. Yuck.

I'd like these 2 to address Dom.

Didn't pull up really any quotes when ISOing Dom since I didn't find anything bad.

I disagree with his suspicion of Ted, but like his questions and general content. Which kinda makes me suspicious of him honestly.
Dom and I normally clash when we play mafia, especially last few games. So that's a bit pingy, but overall since I like his playstyle so far I'll give him a Slight Civ read.


Sprityo

Can anyone give me a run down of Radishes Meta?

When we played in Inception he was the architect and Indy, played really safe and indecisive but still kept an air of he knew what was happening. Which made choosing to lynch him or evenstar (mafia) that much more difficult

I appreciate this post, nobody else really bothered to answer so to everyone else.

Cool I’m caught up

@JaggedJimmyJay you said that I was nominated for mvp for a reason. Now I totally could’ve nominated myself but I didn’t (so thank you to whoever did that) but your statement for that was hollow in that I play mafia my way and that’s how I get results. Same as everyone. So if you want MVP material you’re just gonna have to wait for it because it’ll come with time.

What’d Mac say in Inception to the scum team? “Sprityo is a crucial mislynch” although I like to think of myself more like a snowball

Enough about me though-

I don’t care about this nanook sig radishes kerfuffle that happened between pages 6 and 10 roughly, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say jack is mafia this game. Just pure gut. I have no reason other than I think it.

Also Dom is here, huzzah! I enjoyed playing with Dom in Inception and can’t wait for another game with him. Same to Dizzy, I love their zanyness.

Jay is also 100% town. Don’t ask me why

That’s my lukewarm takes, Jack bad, jay good

[VOTE: Jackofhearts2005] aubergine

Okay so, I don't like that he avoided Nanook vs Sig. Yea it ended up not going anywhere, but not weighing in on it seems like a good baddie strategy.

He also heavily pursued Jack, but hasn't really given a reason for it. Just seemed to have latched onto it.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... Australian

@JaggedJimmyJay
@juliets
@sprityo
And anyone else who may think I’m too serious to be townJack or that I could be wrong or lying about Nutella being mafia, read my interactions with Nutella in that link with the knowledge that I am town and she’s a wolf.

This game is practically a rerun.

I’ve been wrong about jack being town 4/5 times so odds are in my favor that you’re not town on top of I think all this subway sandwiches I’ve been eating are enforcing a healthier lifestyle

My gut wants less jack in my life, jack

I see the reasons for voting speedchuck, radishes, Nutella and they all work, I guess.

I just really want to vote jack.

Still tunneling on Jack, but hasn't really given any reasons for his read. I also really disliked the second post I quoted here. It's literally a meh anyone is fine, but want Jack. BUT, how can he be fine with a Nutella lynch, while also wanting to lynch jack? It just seems like he's waffling on the top wagons/potential wagons.


So kinda like Gman doesn't have alot of posts so far, but he does have some content which is good. However, I don't really like his content so far chiefly based on 3 things.
1. Lack of reads, I only recall a civ read on Jay, mafia read on Jack, and being fine with lynching major wagons.
2. He seems fine going with Nutella or Jack, but if he thought Jack was mafia why'd he be fine with Nutella? It's very odd, given that scenario.
3. He ignored Nanook/Sig, which like I said ended up not meaning anything, but at that time nobody knew that.


Sprityo seems to be playing a very safe game right now and not really giving many reads, both for Civs and Mafia.
Ergo Sprityo is a Mafia Read now.

[sig]

I don’t remember much of anything that Epi has said in this game. That is probably more my fault than his.

I had an early civ read on him and nothing has changed for me, but I don't really recall recent posts from him.

[Long Con]

We are looking for a replacement.

@Dragomir hasn't checked in yet.

[sig]

Catching up: throwing in early reads to have them down

Town: SVS, Sig, Michelle, I think Epi
Wont lynch: Jack, Ted, the other half of Epi

Do these reads still stand [mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention] and do you have any mafia reads.

I remember squinting my eyes at Tony earlier. Let's look into that.

sorry tony

keep tryin you’ll lynch me one of these days

I also don't get Jack's so sure read on you. Is that normal for Jack, anyone? I seem to remember a more tempered town!Jack.

In my single game (Inception, a few months ago) Jack looked like he was trying to play like he is now, but without being too noticeable. He was scum in that game, so in retrospect I feel like he was trying to imitate his town game as he perceives it.

This makes me hesitate to vote Jack right now, as much as his overall play has been a bit questionable.

I find that town Jack is more unsure in late game in confident end game and scum Jack is the other way around.

Hahahaha you are bad again. Fuck I own your soul.

I wish

These two posts feel icky very much like he's deflecting.

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

It's correct. Source: am better at reading Michelle than jack is at reading me.

Is posting excerpts from the Aussie game scum chat bad faith here? Because you are absolutely lying and I am nearing 100% confirmation you are wolf because of it.

What?

What does this have to do with anything

Like I think I get it but it's irrelevant here? My ability to read Michelle still stands...???

The part where you keep downplaying Jack being god tier at reading you. I have demonstrable evidence that you know and highly regard his ability to read you. The lines of logic you are using are fallacious as opposed to what they would naturally be if he was actually wrong.

But what would be they be if he was actually wrong?

Surprised, or she'd have a fierce scum read of him.

I tend to disagree. We’ve seen this a few times with Rej and Drago (I don’t think in any of the cases where one had a strong day 1 read they were v/v, but I’ll have to check) and it’s been discussed there and my general idea is that the usual reaction is bewilderment, general anger, and resignation — in either case.
For me I’m thinking about what I would do if Sloonei came after me with a case in a few days. it’s a technique Sloonei can pull as scum, but I have to assume that Sloonei as town can misread me too or else what am I saying about my own ability as a scum player?

Did Sloonei lynch me in the game we played together as town? I have no recollection of that game at all.

I like this post 1+ Civ point.

Let's do some power analysis

So his analysis was good, but I personally don't like random PA like this. Now after Nights I can see it since you want to look over what's happened. But, this was an odd time to do it and is basically just a more in-depth version of what G-man did. As in being around, looking active, but not really contributing anything real.

Meh
Vote Dizzy

Wait, what? TSP please share what you are seeing here.

I gotta feeling

He never responded to this and I'd like an answer.

Okay gang, so what if we take a step back?

We have two major wagons going, with most of the players on them which isn't really something I personally like this early in the game.

Who outside of Jack, Nutella, and Radish looks the worst/could be a baddie?

I'm obviously gonna say we should go with Nanook.

But, I'm open to other ideas.

I don’t think any of those are good lynches probably reverse alpha best to worst

So you didn't like these three lynches and supported Dizzy, any reason why?

TSP: He's still kind off a mystery to me. I'd like to see more reads from him and why he voted/suspected Dizzy, until then he's staying null I guess.

[sig]

Somebody explain the Radishes wagon.

I kinda want to lynch Dom.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] I don't think I caught this explanation why Dom?

[sig]

I'm done with ISO for now probably signing off until nights over. But first a few random thoughts.

Upon a reread Jack's progression on nutella looks better but this doesn't clear him, especially given she was independent and there are 2 mafia teams.

Epi and SVS both still look civvie to me.

Tranq and Colin have both voted in poll, but I remember no posts from either. Not even sure if Tranq's posted beyond initial yay game thing.

TH, TSP, and Juliet are all unknowns. I've done ISOs for the first 2 and the results were inconclusive honestly. So they haven't moved from my initial list that much.

Dizzy feels off to me, but haven't looked into it plan to do that tomorrow.

Mac is meh, he's taking his new approach of less posts, but even with that I'm disagreeing with his reads and general tone. He's worth watching, but wouldn't want to lynch him tomorrow.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

We are looking for a replacement.

@Dragomir hasn't checked in yet.

Put me in coach

[Long Con]

If we can't get replacements, how would you players feel about nutella and Nanook filling in vacant slots?

Linki: Wellity wellity wellity....

[juliets]

Ok I reviewed Sloonei's post about Master Radishes' "tell me who to ISO" post and JJJ's case post. I started writing this big response but halfway through it occurred to me that I'm really not going to change anyone's mind about MR and I seem to be an outlier in terms of thinking he is town. I look at a post of his and see one thing and others look at it and see something entirely different. So the problem seems to be me.

It has started to remind me of the way I viewed Elephant in Inception. Most of my little surface team came to think he was bad and I was adamant that he was town. I couldn't have been any more sure and thought I knew his role. I ended up dying on that hill because he eventually got lynched and sure enough he was bad.

So maybe that's happening here. I look at MR's comments about Sloonei and understand where he's coming from since he doesn't know Sloonei's meta topped off by the fact Sloonei hasn't been himself because he's sick. JJJ who I respect and am reading town sees his comments about Sloonei and labels them "everywhere and nowhere". That's just one example of what is happening.

So I'll leave it at this: I still don't see MR as bad. I've looked at the points Sloonei and JJJ have made and don't see the same thing they are seeing (I do understand that saying "tell me who to ISO" looks bad but I've done that when I'm too busy and time is short). I'm moving on to spend time on others that I have queasy feelings about so I can hopefully develop some hard mafia reads.

[juliets]

If we can't get replacements, how would you players feel about nutella and Nanook filling in vacant slots?

Linki: Wellity wellity wellity....

lol, I'm ok with it.

[Tranq]

sprityo: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p587352 and http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 53#p587353 - looks like a genuine happy reaction to Nanook's successful role usage of not hitting a town. Leaning good on sprityo.
Master Radishes: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p587452 - very helpful interpretation. His posts seem a bit like what i like to do: ignore all Day 1 nonsense, and look at the votes. I'm not voting for this guy.
Turnip Head: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 61#p587461 - I don't like his posts on MR. TH posts things like "Scum tbqh" and "More like Master Badishes amirite", but he doesn't go into specifics. In the post i linked to, he ignores everything mentioned in the analysis MR made just a couple of posts above his (in which MR tries to find scum in the nutella voters, of which TH is one), and instead throws the attention back at him. This feels like TH is only adding fuel to the MR suspicion without really committing to it. Leaning bad on TH.

[sprityo]

If we can't get replacements, how would you players feel about nutella and Nanook filling in vacant slots?

Linki: Wellity wellity wellity....

Yea, don’t see a reason not too unless NANOOK has some kind of knowledge he shouldnt

[Master Radishes]

I chose to spend time with my wife tonight instead of playing mafia.

[sprityo]

I chose to spend time with my wife tonight instead of playing mafia.

Why?

[Master Radishes]

We accidentally stumbled on to a free wine tasting event.

Actually, this is probably a good time to AMA.

[Master Radishes]

Except not because it's my bed time.

[Master Radishes]

Master Radishes, I know you said it is hard to pick the most suspicious vote for nutella but in your opinion it is sabie. Is there something specific you saw there that causes you to pick her? I have trouble reading her at this point in a game so would like to know what you saw. My apologies if you've answered this somewhere and I missed it.

All nute voters except Jack have the potential to be scum joining the wagon, IMO. I felt that as per given justification, sig's was the poorest, but since I've actually felt his play overall has been solid, then sabie comes in second, since she was a clear hop-on towards the 'end' of the wagon (not that we knew it would be the end, of course). Dom fits there too, but I've liked his play, at least based on my single-game meta of Dom from Inception. I don't know what to think of TH yet, I've expressed my conflicted feelings about Mac, and Epi I'm giving the benefit of the doubt because he sort of strikes me as the type to vote without saying why when town.

So somewhat by PoE but also positioning within wagon, I'd give sabie the side-eye first.

As others have pointed out, this is an unusual wagon to analyse, though, so I'm hesitant to commit to any such read. We need more from her first.

[sabie12]

Nice to see colin and tranq have come in. I haven't played with them in awhile I don't think.
Sloonei I hope you're feeling better
I guess since nutella and nanook probably wouldn't have info at this point they could sub in if they wanted to.

[Master Radishes]

At its peak moment [...]

I'm kind of puzzled by this analysis tbh. If you are town, which you would assume that you are, then I don't see why scum would care either way whether you or Nut was lynched. In fact, I would think scum would either a) vote off wagons to not make waves and not make themselves targets (which they could be no matter what the lynched players flip) or b) vote because they sincerely believe the player to be scum. I don't know why scum would need to look for especially "opportunistic" reasons to vote someone. I mean, sure, anyone but their team. But if you are town, then why care among the two of you?

I mean, sure, it's an unusual wagon to analyse, as in a 'real' round we might have seen some last minute vote-switching and all that.

But the general mentality of a scum wanting to 'blend in' remains, and so scum would try to nudge a wagon from a non-teammate along if the opportunity presented itself, especially a player as respected as nutella. Also, since nutella's sprung up relatively quickly, that likely would have pushed a scum to act 'quickly' to join in or not. (I put in ' ' because I'm speaking in terms of thread progression, not real time necessarily.)

I don't think it really matters that this is multiball. If a baddie sees a wagon, they'll be tempted to join.

I don't really understand what my wagon has to do with anything. Obviously the same rule applies - there are scum on it too. But I haven't analysed it for reasons already stated (my opinions would be questioned by the rest of you and the nature of the wagon formation was more gradual and thus harder to properly analyse, IMO.)


I have no idea if this answered your point, because of the aforementioned wine and my refusal to re-read your quoted post. But I don't see why the validity of analysing the nutella-wagon is being questioned. I've played this game for over a decade, it's a well-established rule of thumb, and **** you all for not believing me.

(I went for appeal to authority, logic, *and* emotion there!)

[Turnip Head]

sprityo: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p587352 and http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 53#p587353 - looks like a genuine happy reaction to Nanook's successful role usage of not hitting a town. Leaning good on sprityo.
Master Radishes: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p587452 - very helpful interpretation. His posts seem a bit like what i like to do: ignore all Day 1 nonsense, and look at the votes. I'm not voting for this guy.
Turnip Head: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 61#p587461 - I don't like his posts on MR. TH posts things like "Scum tbqh" and "More like Master Badishes amirite", but he doesn't go into specifics. In the post i linked to, he ignores everything mentioned in the analysis MR made just a couple of posts above his (in which MR tries to find scum in the nutella voters, of which TH is one), and instead throws the attention back at him. This feels like TH is only adding fuel to the MR suspicion without really committing to it. Leaning bad on TH.

Sometimes I don't get into specifics because I want to see if other people see what I see.

[S~V~S]

Spoiler: show

At its peak moment [...]

I'm kind of puzzled by this analysis tbh. If you are town, which you would assume that you are, then I don't see why scum would care either way whether you or Nut was lynched. In fact, I would think scum would either a) vote off wagons to not make waves and not make themselves targets (which they could be no matter what the lynched players flip) or b) vote because they sincerely believe the player to be scum. I don't know why scum would need to look for especially "opportunistic" reasons to vote someone. I mean, sure, anyone but their team. But if you are town, then why care among the two of you?

I mean, sure, it's an unusual wagon to analyse, as in a 'real' round we might have seen some last minute vote-switching and all that.

But the general mentality of a scum wanting to 'blend in' remains, and so scum would try to nudge a wagon from a non-teammate along if the opportunity presented itself, especially a player as respected as nutella. Also, since nutella's sprung up relatively quickly, that likely would have pushed a scum to act 'quickly' to join in or not. (I put in ' ' because I'm speaking in terms of thread progression, not real time necessarily.)

I don't think it really matters that this is multiball. If a baddie sees a wagon, they'll be tempted to join.

I don't really understand what my wagon has to do with anything. Obviously the same rule applies - there are scum on it too. But I haven't analysed it for reasons already stated (my opinions would be questioned by the rest of you and the nature of the wagon formation was more gradual and thus harder to properly analyse, IMO.)


I have no idea if this answered your point, because of the aforementioned wine and my refusal to re-read your quoted post. But I don't see why the validity of analysing the nutella-wagon is being questioned. I've played this game for over a decade, it's a well-established rule of thumb, and **** you all for not believing me.

(I went for appeal to authority, logic, *and* emotion there!)

I am confused, I have seen plenty of wagons on Day one that consisted completely of civs. This feels like an over analysis of a moot point.

Personally, I think Nutella was going to be able to talk her way out of it since Jack was backing off (this is prolly why Nanook nuked her) and you would have been lynched. The vote moving was just about to start. I think you're trying to make a something out of a nothing, and I don't find it a good look.

I've played this game for over a decade, too. Stop showing off, lol.

[Master Radishes]

Spoiler: show

At its peak moment [...]

I'm kind of puzzled by this analysis tbh. If you are town, which you would assume that you are, then I don't see why scum would care either way whether you or Nut was lynched. In fact, I would think scum would either a) vote off wagons to not make waves and not make themselves targets (which they could be no matter what the lynched players flip) or b) vote because they sincerely believe the player to be scum. I don't know why scum would need to look for especially "opportunistic" reasons to vote someone. I mean, sure, anyone but their team. But if you are town, then why care among the two of you?

I mean, sure, it's an unusual wagon to analyse, as in a 'real' round we might have seen some last minute vote-switching and all that.

But the general mentality of a scum wanting to 'blend in' remains, and so scum would try to nudge a wagon from a non-teammate along if the opportunity presented itself, especially a player as respected as nutella. Also, since nutella's sprung up relatively quickly, that likely would have pushed a scum to act 'quickly' to join in or not. (I put in ' ' because I'm speaking in terms of thread progression, not real time necessarily.)

I don't think it really matters that this is multiball. If a baddie sees a wagon, they'll be tempted to join.

I don't really understand what my wagon has to do with anything. Obviously the same rule applies - there are scum on it too. But I haven't analysed it for reasons already stated (my opinions would be questioned by the rest of you and the nature of the wagon formation was more gradual and thus harder to properly analyse, IMO.)


I have no idea if this answered your point, because of the aforementioned wine and my refusal to re-read your quoted post. But I don't see why the validity of analysing the nutella-wagon is being questioned. I've played this game for over a decade, it's a well-established rule of thumb, and **** you all for not believing me.

(I went for appeal to authority, logic, *and* emotion there!)

I am confused, I have seen plenty of wagons on Day one that consisted completely of civs. This feels like an over analysis of a moot point.

Personally, I think Nutella was going to be able to talk her way out of it since Jack was backing off (this is prolly why Nanook nuked her) and you would have been lynched. The vote moving was just about to start. I think you're trying to make a something out of a nothing, and I don't find it a good look.

I've played this game for over a decade, too. Stop showing off, lol.

So are you saying all nutella votersa re civs, or are you just tunneling me and going to argue with my point no matter what? I don't get this resistance to what is a fairly straightforward analysis.

It doesn't matter what would have happened after. Mafia are mafia throughout the round, and will act as such throughout the round.

The decade thing was tongue in cheek.

[Master Radishes]

Anyway, off to sleep.

[Dragomir]

Holy shit.

[juliets]

Holy shit.

Welcome Drago.

[sabie12]

Guess we don't need a replacement then.
I agree with svs on the vote analysis that since the day ended early and we all thought we had more time it's hard to know for sure if that's how the result would have turned out.

[S~V~S]

Spoiler: show

At its peak moment [...]

I'm kind of puzzled by this analysis tbh. If you are town, which you would assume that you are, then I don't see why scum would care either way whether you or Nut was lynched. In fact, I would think scum would either a) vote off wagons to not make waves and not make themselves targets (which they could be no matter what the lynched players flip) or b) vote because they sincerely believe the player to be scum. I don't know why scum would need to look for especially "opportunistic" reasons to vote someone. I mean, sure, anyone but their team. But if you are town, then why care among the two of you?

I mean, sure, it's an unusual wagon to analyse, as in a 'real' round we might have seen some last minute vote-switching and all that.

But the general mentality of a scum wanting to 'blend in' remains, and so scum would try to nudge a wagon from a non-teammate along if the opportunity presented itself, especially a player as respected as nutella. Also, since nutella's sprung up relatively quickly, that likely would have pushed a scum to act 'quickly' to join in or not. (I put in ' ' because I'm speaking in terms of thread progression, not real time necessarily.)

I don't think it really matters that this is multiball. If a baddie sees a wagon, they'll be tempted to join.

I don't really understand what my wagon has to do with anything. Obviously the same rule applies - there are scum on it too. But I haven't analysed it for reasons already stated (my opinions would be questioned by the rest of you and the nature of the wagon formation was more gradual and thus harder to properly analyse, IMO.)


I have no idea if this answered your point, because of the aforementioned wine and my refusal to re-read your quoted post. But I don't see why the validity of analysing the nutella-wagon is being questioned. I've played this game for over a decade, it's a well-established rule of thumb, and **** you all for not believing me.

(I went for appeal to authority, logic, *and* emotion there!)

I am confused, I have seen plenty of wagons on Day one that consisted completely of civs. This feels like an over analysis of a moot point.

Personally, I think Nutella was going to be able to talk her way out of it since Jack was backing off (this is prolly why Nanook nuked her) and you would have been lynched. The vote moving was just about to start. I think you're trying to make a something out of a nothing, and I don't find it a good look.

I've played this game for over a decade, too. Stop showing off, lol.

So are you saying all nutella votersa re civs, or are you just tunneling me and going to argue with my point no matter what? I don't get this resistance to what is a fairly straightforward analysis.

It doesn't matter what would have happened after. Mafia are mafia throughout the round, and will act as such throughout the round.

The decade thing was tongue in cheek.

No not tunnelling; I think it's an over analysis designed to look like you're hunting. I also think that what is bothering me it that you are talking about this as if it is a fact, an undisputable truth, that baddies will act or vote in a certain way. If that were the case, this game would be lame and we would have stopped playing it years ago. We would have been bored to tears with these predictable baddies that can't resist voting 4th on wagons.

Sleep tight!

linki, Hi Dragomir! Happy reading!

[TonyStarkPrime]

Catching up: throwing in early reads to have them down

Town: SVS, Sig, Michelle, I think Epi
Wont lynch: Jack, Ted, the other half of Epi

Do these reads still stand @TonyStarkPrime and do you have any mafia reads.

I remember squinting my eyes at Tony earlier. Let's look into that.

sorry tony

keep tryin you’ll lynch me one of these days

I also don't get Jack's so sure read on you. Is that normal for Jack, anyone? I seem to remember a more tempered town!Jack.

In my single game (Inception, a few months ago) Jack looked like he was trying to play like he is now, but without being too noticeable. He was scum in that game, so in retrospect I feel like he was trying to imitate his town game as he perceives it.

This makes me hesitate to vote Jack right now, as much as his overall play has been a bit questionable.

I find that town Jack is more unsure in late game in confident end game and scum Jack is the other way around.

Hahahaha you are bad again. Fuck I own your soul.

I wish

These two posts feel icky very much like he's deflecting.

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Is posting excerpts from the Aussie game scum chat bad faith here? Because you are absolutely lying and I am nearing 100% confirmation you are wolf because of it.

What?

What does this have to do with anything

Like I think I get it but it's irrelevant here? My ability to read Michelle still stands...???

The part where you keep downplaying Jack being god tier at reading you. I have demonstrable evidence that you know and highly regard his ability to read you. The lines of logic you are using are fallacious as opposed to what they would naturally be if he was actually wrong.

But what would be they be if he was actually wrong?

Surprised, or she'd have a fierce scum read of him.

I tend to disagree. We’ve seen this a few times with Rej and Drago (I don’t think in any of the cases where one had a strong day 1 read they were v/v, but I’ll have to check) and it’s been discussed there and my general idea is that the usual reaction is bewilderment, general anger, and resignation — in either case.
For me I’m thinking about what I would do if Sloonei came after me with a case in a few days. it’s a technique Sloonei can pull as scum, but I have to assume that Sloonei as town can misread me too or else what am I saying about my own ability as a scum player?

Did Sloonei lynch me in the game we played together as town? I have no recollection of that game at all.

I like this post 1+ Civ point.

Let's do some power analysis

So his analysis was good, but I personally don't like random PA like this. Now after Nights I can see it since you want to look over what's happened. But, this was an odd time to do it and is basically just a more in-depth version of what G-man did. As in being around, looking active, but not really contributing anything real.

Meh
Vote Dizzy

Wait, what? TSP please share what you are seeing here.

I gotta feeling

He never responded to this and I'd like an answer.

Okay gang, so what if we take a step back?

We have two major wagons going, with most of the players on them which isn't really something I personally like this early in the game.

Who outside of Jack, Nutella, and Radish looks the worst/could be a baddie?

I'm obviously gonna say we should go with Nanook.

But, I'm open to other ideas.

I don’t think any of those are good lynches probably reverse alpha best to worst

So you didn't like these three lynches and supported Dizzy, any reason why?

TSP: He's still kind off a mystery to me. I'd like to see more reads from him and why he voted/suspected Dizzy, until then he's staying null I guess.

Any scum reads? No. Not going to pretend otherwise. I think the list of people I wouldn’t lynch is pretty large though. I can expand it if you’d like but I think I’ll hold off til the day.

I would have been fine with any of the three lynches (least pleased with Nutella as I said) but I wasn’t content to let that be that. So I voted for Dizzy.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Holy shit.

Here’s what’s up:
Uhh
Nothing it’s been really slow the large post count disguises this fact

[TonyStarkPrime]

Colin is probably the player I’ve driven the most mislynches against historically. I’m wary of that. None of his posts have stood out to me, but I’ve been operating at less than full capacity the last 72 hours.

G-man has been underwhelming. That becomes more suspicious the later we get into the game.

I’m on opposite of this. G-man gives me a good feeling, haven’t gotten any of that sense from Colin. Though I didn’t eeLly know Colin was in this game until now. It’s hard to keep track of so many players.

[TonyStarkPrime]

One last thing:

Jackofhearts fell down the well

[S~V~S]

Colin is probably the player I’ve driven the most mislynches against historically. I’m wary of that. None of his posts have stood out to me, but I’ve been operating at less than full capacity the last 72 hours.

G-man has been underwhelming. That becomes more suspicious the later we get into the game.

I’m on opposite of this. G-man gives me a good feeling, haven’t gotten any of that sense from Colin. Though I didn’t eeLly know Colin was in this game until now. It’s hard to keep track of so many players.

What about G Man felt good to you? because I'm struggling to see it, and in G's case it could be that I'm missing the civvie stuff because I have overblown expectations from him.

[sig]

One last thing:

Jackofhearts fell down the well

[Dragomir]

Holy shit.

Welcome Drago.

Hi, what's going on here? I'm not gonna read 35 pages.

[Dragomir]

Holy shit.

Here’s what’s up:
Uhh
Nothing it’s been really slow the large post count disguises this fact

So absolutely nothing of work has occurred?