Combining PeekGate and the MP kill, and I feel like this is the emergent POE:
Jack~V~S
Michelle
nutella
Nanook should have been somehow countered, criticized, or skewered if he was lying about his role claim. It didn't happen, so I just hope folks understand the matrix.
Epignosis and Long Con were the two I felt were least likely to kill MP first, and that holds. I wouldn't either.
If I'm right about all of the above, then I next consider the combinations among those three.
~ Jack~V~S/nutella sounds reasonably plausible. I can't off-hand think of any reason why not.
~ Jack~V~S/Michelle sounds reasonably plausible. S~V~S was a known busser, and she went after Michelle early and often. Jack held up that banner though, so it's not super clear.
~ nutella/Michelle sounds less plausible. nutella was ready to murder Michelle pre-PeekGate, and it didn't strike me as a distancing sort of business. If nutella is mafia, Michelle was a scapegoat.
The common denominator is Jack~V~S.