Assassin's Creed Mafia (OVER!)

[tedxtr]

I kind of wanna shift to LC, if he's not gonna town it up then getting a null out the game seems +EV play to me

[Sloonei]

If it puts your mind at ease, here's some reasons why Sloonei never kills Dragomir:

Spoiler: show

Sloonei is town. There was absolutely nothing wrong with him talking mechanically. It's not pro anything and doesn't deter the game at all. An argument could be made that it is beneficial towards the game and lets you understand what could be going on. That newfound understanding can better your reads.

Why was Sloonei being voted for mechanical talk? Ts why are you gungho about it? I can't help but agree with Sloonei that suspecting someone over mechanical is suspicious in of itself. It's lazy and never actually feels like a genuine read. Furthermore, scum use this too much to get by with their fake suspicions. Thus why it feels lazy and not genuine.

I agree with Sloo. Leetic is probably town. Been mindmelding with Sloonei a lot.

Sure, but first tell me who your top 2 town reads are and your bottom 2 reads are?

Sloonei and Ted.

LC and TSP.

Its gonna be hard for me to participate in these remaining hours. I'm quite busy right now so EoD activity is a no go from my side.

My reads right now still have LC as scum but it's not as strong as before. Leetic has creeped up in my scum reads, but it's not very strong either. My reasons don't felt good enough to support a vote on him and I have had a couple mindmelds with him. His defense against my recent accusations were just as well.

Speedchuck is probably my strongest scum read atm doubt that's not saying much as it's still kinda weak, just barely above the other two. I don't think I'll be voting anybody for this phase.

My town reads, on the other hand, are quite strong. max, Sloonei, and FG are the highest; all three equal with each other. Turnip Head, TS, Ted, and Epi follow behind.

Radish and TSP are my remaining null reads.

I like that post by Sloonei.

Who wasn't town reading you though?

ts account and leetic. tony and speed abstained from reading me. You asked me this before non-rhetorically.
drago and you were my most vocal advocates. You have a much deeper history of suspecting me than he does. I kill you before I kill drago.

This doesn't matter. You already said we're not lynching me today regardless. I just wanted pump the breaks on the tinfoil.

[Sloonei]

I kind of wanna shift to LC, if he's not gonna town it up then getting a null out the game seems +EV play to me

What if LC is not a null read?

[MacDougall]

I feel like LC is playing scummy on purpose

I don't understand.

This is more backstory for the Ted/LC games we play.

[tedxtr]

I'll give it to him though, coming into the thread analysing his CW is villagery.

Although him not forming an opinion on the second counterwagon, me, kind of nullifies that which kind of sucks because that was the towniest thing going for him. It doesn't matter if he town reads one of the wagons if he'll just do what a wolf would do to the other counterwagon.

Although the self-vote suggests he probably wouldn't have done that anyway? idk.

[Sloonei]

Long Con was the competing wagon to leetic. They ended up tied. Nobody sprang to save him. What does this mean? I can go either way on it.

I asked this question at the start of the day and it never gained traction. I'd like to put it forth again. We had a two way tie and a third wagon that was one vote behind, and yet the end of the phase slipped by quietly and without much commotion.

What does that tell us?

I am currently leaning toward three civilian wagons at the end of Day 1. Mafia accomplished their goal for the day and avoided danger. They kicked back and let three stupid wagons vie for majority.

This is also compatible with the "underwhelming suspects" feeling I expressed earlier. Specifically, the underwhelming names I've been gravitating toward are speedchuck, tony, and master radishes (I don't mean that those players are underwhelming, just that the status of the game feels pretty vanilla if that's our team of bad guys). We had three wagons on three "suspicious" players because those three were all more active, and thus more visible, than the entire mafia team. We fell into the trap of voting players who made too much noise while the mafia team sat quietly by.

Maybe.

[tedxtr]

I kind of wanna shift to LC, if he's not gonna town it up then getting a null out the game seems +EV play to me

What if LC is not a null read?

???????

[MacDougall]

I feel like LC is playing scummy on purpose

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Tedxtr] aubergine

I don't believe anything he has said. I have the worst gut feels towards him and all the positive things about him can be faked.

[Sloonei]

I kind of wanna shift to LC, if he's not gonna town it up then getting a null out the game seems +EV play to me

What if LC is not a null read?

???????

Long Con = town, is what I'm suggesting.

[tedxtr]

[VOTE: Tedxtr] aubergine

I don't believe anything he has said. I have the worst gut feels towards him and all the positive things about him can be faked.

That's kind of the general statement. "Can be faked". By someone else, probably. By me? Nah.

[tedxtr]

I kind of wanna shift to LC, if he's not gonna town it up then getting a null out the game seems +EV play to me

What if LC is not a null read?

???????

Long Con = town, is what I'm suggesting.

My point was that I'm not finding him and so lynching a slot that doesn't give content which I can read is +EV in any situation but whatevs

[TonyStarkPrime]

Long Con was the competing wagon to leetic. They ended up tied. Nobody sprang to save him. What does this mean? I can go either way on it.

I asked this question at the start of the day and it never gained traction. I'd like to put it forth again. We had a two way tie and a third wagon that was one vote behind, and yet the end of the phase slipped by quietly and without much commotion.

What does that tell us?

One of three and a half:
1) Scum wasn’t around at EOD and got lucky (LC’s self vote throws a wrench in some ways this could play out)
2) There is no scum in the top lynch options
3) Scum was actively bussing and didn’t succeed
3.5) scum actively saved a teammate (again LC’s self vote makes this weird, but maybe TH?)

All of these are possible. 2 is the most wide open and I think the most likely by a fair margin. Maybe two scum in thread bussing TH or LC. 3 covers all LC team possibilities. 1 can be dissolved into 3 or 4 team comps, none of which seem likely.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Teds at two votes from GoC teammates with one against

[Funnygurl555]

i can't sleep lol ted what do you think about tsp

[Sloonei]

Long Con was the competing wagon to leetic. They ended up tied. Nobody sprang to save him. What does this mean? I can go either way on it.

What do you think it means?

Listen punk, I'm the one who asks questions here!

I am of two minds.
Scenario 1) The mafia team had no preference over who was lynched and was content to let two civilians face the coin flip of destiny. I've never seen a tie where things were so stagnant. Long Con's self-vote made it 4 to 4 several minutes ahead of the deadline, and then nobody else moved. Lots of people were around, but the leetic camp was entrenched on leetic, and the LC camp was entrenched on LC (and the TH/non-committed camp was farting around like losers). Mafia members have no reason to stick their necks out to determine one lynch or another when either one will do just fine.

Scenario 2) Long Con is mafia. This one comes with a couple other variables, none of which I'd bank on.

• 2.1) Long Con is mafia, his self-vote put his partners in a very awkward position wherein they need to leap to save him. Long Con is an experienced and adept mafia player. He knows better than to do that to his partners.

• 2.2) Long Con is mafia, but his team possesses some sort of mechanic which would have prevented him from being lynched yesterday (maybe they control a tiebreaker, maybe they have a member with a vote addition/subtraction power, etc.). This is baseless speculation. I cannot assert it with any confidence.

Scenario 3, I guess, is that no mafia members were present at the end of the day with the potential exception of Long Con. Why he'd endanger himself like that, I cannot say.

I have more confidence in scenario 1 than anything else.

[Sloonei]

Teds at two votes from GoC teammates with one against

what is the strongest read you have on a player in this game right now, either town or mafia?

[tedxtr]

i can't sleep lol ted what do you think about tsp

I still think guy's town

[tedxtr]

Teds at two votes from GoC teammates with one against

anecdotals when you have 1 town game and 1 scum game in multiball isn't really putting you at a place where you can confidently BoP someone's alignment tbh

[tedxtr]

aight you know what

fg - ts - th - tsp you guys are town core today

what you got for me

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: Master Radishes ] aubergine

why does this vote exist?

[tedxtr]

I did say i thought his case on me was pretty bad and I couldn't read him, rather than being twisted into "you're biased against MR cuz blah blah" if he's scum, i'd rather get him out to work on my other slots. I'm saying, if I essentially reach a scum lean on him based on more evidence, I don't know what credibility I would have given our quarrel.

[tedxtr]

That's not to say I voted him just based on how I'd look later if I reached a him!scum lean, I do anyway based on his case and a lot of his thoughts are fairly surface, linguistic stuff that can be faked by anyone.

[Sloonei]

That's not to say I voted him just based on how I'd look later if I reached a him!scum lean, I do anyway based on his case and a lot of his thoughts are fairly surface, linguistic stuff that can be faked by anyone.

[VOTE: Tedxtr] aubergine

I don't believe anything he has said. I have the worst gut feels towards him and all the positive things about him can be faked.

That's kind of the general statement. "Can be faked". By someone else, probably. By me? Nah.

[tedxtr]

ts - th - fg - tsp - speed

LC

Sloonei / mac / epi / MR

[tedxtr]

I don't know what that's pointing out.

[MacDougall]

ted is wrong town I'm just locking it in and giving up on chasing that dragon

[Sloonei]

I don't know what that's pointing out.

You didn’t like it when mac said your behavior could be faked. You then said radish’s behavior can be faked by anyone.

[MacDougall]

For me I think we need to flip LC and Speedchuck, probably need to flip Radishes and Turnip Head. I think today should be a choice between LC and Speedchuck and then we reassess tomorrow based on the result. I can't imagine there is no scum in those four names. If there is gg.

[Sloonei]

ts - th - fg - tsp - speed

LC

Sloonei / mac / epi / MR

This is almost the inverse of my reads

[Sloonei]

For me I think we need to flip LC and Speedchuck, probably need to flip Radishes and Turnip Head. I think today should be a choice between LC and Speedchuck and then we reassess tomorrow based on the result. I can't imagine there is no scum in those four names. If there is gg.

I can vote for speedchuck.

[MacDougall]

[mention]Sloonei[/mention] I think we have chaos merchants and I myself am contributing. So I'd like to just try my best to zen and play this straight.

Do you agree with a POE that contains Long Con, Speedchuck, Radishes and Turnip Head?

[tedxtr]

I said the hunting that MR is doing is relying on linguistic tells that are easy to craft as either alignment.

And then I was merely stating that the "can be faked" thing is a generality that doesn't apply to me in that case.

Difference being, one of those things points to someone's alignment as going either way and the other is saying why he shouldn't be taking that into account when reading me. If you're suggesting I should be scum reading Mac from that then you're wrong.

[tedxtr]

ts - th - fg - tsp - speed

LC

Sloonei / mac / epi / MR

This is almost the inverse of my reads

this doesn't tell me anything really, if you're wolf you need a poe like that, if you're town, you better make them look like locked scum or the ones in PoE look like town cuz none of you are looking like that despite being active. i don't see where you're driving town agendas.

[MacDougall]

I said the hunting that MR is doing is relying on linguistic tells that are easy to craft as either alignment.

And then I was merely stating that the "can be faked" thing is a generality that doesn't apply to me in that case.

Difference being, one of those things points to someone's alignment as going either way and the other is saying why he shouldn't be taking that into account when reading me. If you're suggesting I should be scum reading Mac from that then you're wrong.

So do you scum read Radishes?

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei I think we have chaos merchants and I myself am contributing. So I'd like to just try my best to zen and play this straight.

Do you agree with a POE that contains Long Con, Speedchuck, Radishes and Turnip Head?

I town read turnip and long con, but not enough to remove them from a hypothetical POE. I’d keep epi in there as well.

[MacDougall]

Tedxtr has demonstrated that his wolf game is better than what it would have to be for him to be wolf here.

[Sloonei]

ts - th - fg - tsp - speed

LC

Sloonei / mac / epi / MR

This is almost the inverse of my reads

this doesn't tell me anything really, if you're wolf you need a poe like that, if you're town, you better make them look like locked scum or the ones in PoE look like town cuz none of you are looking like that despite being active. i don't see where you're driving town agendas.

What

[tedxtr]

I don't know how I feel about Radishes.

linki : that's kind of insulting my town game but it's okay i sucked this game

[MacDougall]

@Sloonei I think we have chaos merchants and I myself am contributing. So I'd like to just try my best to zen and play this straight.

Do you agree with a POE that contains Long Con, Speedchuck, Radishes and Turnip Head?

I town read turnip and long con, but not enough to remove them from a hypothetical POE. I’d keep epi in there as well.

Keeping Epi in there serves no purpose imo. He's not going to be lynched until the mid game at earliest. I want to turn these four upon one another in a firm manner.

[MacDougall]

I don't know how I feel about Radishes.

linki : that's kind of insulting my town game but it's okay i sucked this game

I want more than that. Explain why you "don't know". Provide insight.

[Sloonei]

I don't know how I feel about Radishes.

linki : that's kind of insulting my town game but it's okay i sucked this game

I don’t think that’s what mac meant. He just means that your honest play here (assuming you’re town) looks too reckless to be your scum game. That’s not a bad thing.

[MacDougall]

I don't know how I feel about Radishes.

linki : that's kind of insulting my town game but it's okay i sucked this game

I am having flashbacks to something

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei I think we have chaos merchants and I myself am contributing. So I'd like to just try my best to zen and play this straight.

Do you agree with a POE that contains Long Con, Speedchuck, Radishes and Turnip Head?

I town read turnip and long con, but not enough to remove them from a hypothetical POE. I’d keep epi in there as well.

Keeping Epi in there serves no purpose imo. He's not going to be lynched until the mid game at earliest. I want to turn these four upon one another in a firm manner.

This game isn’t huge. Day 2 is midgame.

[tedxtr]

Because the dude went hard at me man, i fucking town read that shit, i can't read him, i need him out to read other people. I think his case on me sucks but he doesn't feel scum like he felt in GoC.

His case = sucked balls

how he went about it = probably town

anything else to him ? no.

what do you fucking do with that really

[MacDougall]

Because the dude went hard at me man, i fucking town read that shit, i can't read him, i need him out to read other people. I think his case on me sucks but he doesn't feel scum like he felt in GoC.

His case = sucked balls

how he went about it = probably town

anything else to him ? no.

what do you fucking do with that really

is it your natural inclination to town read those that "go hard at you"?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Teds at two votes from GoC teammates with one against

what is the strongest read you have on a player in this game right now, either town or mafia?

Mac is town.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Teds at two votes from GoC teammates with one against

what is the strongest read you have on a player in this game right now, either town or mafia?

Mac is town.

This is my only hard and fast read, I’m tinfoiling a bit on TS and LC can be my pet town read.

[Sloonei]

Teds at two votes from GoC teammates with one against

what is the strongest read you have on a player in this game right now, either town or mafia?

Mac is town.

Now go the other way. Strongest suspect?

[tedxtr]

Because the dude went hard at me man, i fucking town read that shit, i can't read him, i need him out to read other people. I think his case on me sucks but he doesn't feel scum like he felt in GoC.

His case = sucked balls

how he went about it = probably town

anything else to him ? no.

what do you fucking do with that really

is it your natural inclination to town read those that "go hard at you"?

yes