FTL Mafia [ENDGAME]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just gonna spam out consolidated polls and stare at them:

Day 1
[4] Jack - LC, nutella, Mac, Nanook
[2] Long Con - Jack, Sloonei
[1] Mac - Soneji
[1] Nanook - motobot
[3] Soneji - ted, Daisy, sig

[3] No vote - Jiwon, Myo, ColinJJ

Day 2
[1] Jiwon - LC
[2] Long Con - Daisy, Sloonei
[1] Mac - motobot
[2] Soneji - nutella, JJJ
[5] Daisy - ted, Mac, Soneji, sig, Myo
[1] ted - Jiwon

Day 3
[1] Myo - ted
[3] sig - Soneji, Sloonei, LC
[4] Soneji - Myo, nutella, Mac, JJJ

[3] No vote - Jiwon, motobot, sig

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Unusual indicators:

- Jiwon has only voted once, and it was an off-wagon dump.
- Sloonei has never participated in a lynch.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Scrap votes

Day 0
[1] Mac - ted
[1] sig - Myo
[1] Sloonei - Soneji
[1] Soneji - Sloonei
[3] Daisy - Nanook, motobot, LC
[2] ted - Jiwon, Mac

[5] No vote - ColinJJ, Dragotella, Jack, sig, Daisy

Night 1
[4] nutella - Myo, Nanook, Soneji, Mac
[4] Mac - Jiwon, ted, Daisy, nutella
[2] Nanook - LC, JJJ
[1] Sloonei - motobot
[1] ted - Sloonei

[1] No vote - sig

Night 2
[2] JJJ - nutella, Sloonei
[3] Mac - Myo, Mac, ted
[1] Myo - motobot
[2] nutella - Jiwon, JJJ
[1] ted - LC

[2] No vote - sig, Soneji

Night 3
[4] Mac - ted, Jiwon, nutella, JJJ
[1] nutella - Mac

[5] No vote - LC, motobot, Myo, sig, Sloonei

[JaggedJimmyJay]

- Jiwon has voted for scrap 4 out of 4, but for a lynch only 1 out of 3. Whacke.

- Sloonei has never voted scrap to a majority scrap winner.

- sig has literally never voted for scrap.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I kinda doubt a mafia sig just ignores this entire mechanic.

I might swap him with Sloonei in my POE group.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: JiwonMeganPark] aubergine

[Sloonei]

- Jiwon has voted for scrap 4 out of 4, but for a lynch only 1 out of 3. Whacke.

- Sloonei has never voted scrap to a majority scrap winner.

- sig has literally never voted for scrap.

Is there something wrong with not voting for the winner? I wanna spread it.

[Long Con]

- Jiwon has voted for scrap 4 out of 4, but for a lynch only 1 out of 3. Whacke.

- Sloonei has never voted scrap to a majority scrap winner.

- sig has literally never voted for scrap.

Is there something wrong with not voting for the winner? I wanna spread it.

I thought there wasn't a winner, just a spreading of scrap to all who received votes.

[nutella]

- Jiwon has voted for scrap 4 out of 4, but for a lynch only 1 out of 3. Whacke.

This is bizarre

[nutella]

[mention]MacDougall[/mention] I see your vote is on LC but I see no explanation

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Is there something wrong with not voting for the winner? I wanna spread it.

I don't know if it's "wrong", but it does limit the scrap in the hands of the biggest town reads.

[nutella]

I don't mind Sloonei spreading the scrap votes, but let's be real, his day voting record is abysmal. He remained on the LC wagon in the very fast Jack move, perhaps thinking there was still a chance, and it kinda looks like he had TMI on the town lynches and avoided responsibility for them. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, or it's too scummy to be scum, but the pattern isn't inspiring.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't mind Sloonei spreading the scrap votes, but let's be real, his day voting record is abysmal. He remained on the LC wagon in the very fast Jack move, perhaps thinking there was still a chance, and it kinda looks like he had TMI on the town lynches and avoided responsibility for them. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, or it's too scummy to be scum, but the pattern isn't inspiring.

All I have for Sloonei is that sometimes his tone seems fine.

Considering I usually just know he's a civilian, this game is an outlier. I don't have remotely that degree of confidence. And you're right that on the basis of evidence, he gets no better. So he's in my POE.

Does anyone disagree with the assertion that a mafia sig would give a crap about the scrap mechanic and not skip every single night poll?

[Sloonei]

I don't mind Sloonei spreading the scrap votes, but let's be real, his day voting record is abysmal. He remained on the LC wagon in the very fast Jack move, perhaps thinking there was still a chance, and it kinda looks like he had TMI on the town lynches and avoided responsibility for them. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, or it's too scummy to be scum, but the pattern isn't inspiring.

mafia sloon doesn’t give a shit about “tmi on town lynches”

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Does anyone disagree with the assertion that a mafia sig would give a crap about the scrap mechanic and not skip every single night poll?

[Sloonei]

Does anyone disagree with the assertion that a mafia sig would give a crap about the scrap mechanic and not skip every single night poll?

I don’t assign it enough weight to remove him from the POE, but I agree that it’s not meaningless.

[Long Con]

Does anyone disagree with the assertion that a mafia sig would give a crap about the scrap mechanic and not skip every single night poll?

I don’t assign it enough weight to remove him from the POE, but I agree that it’s not meaningless.

Agreed.

[MacDougall]

@MacDougall I see your vote is on LC but I see no explanation

I think myo is town. I haven't been fully focused on this game for the last couple of days so I was just following the other wagon.

[MacDougall]

- Jiwon has voted for scrap 4 out of 4, but for a lynch only 1 out of 3. Whacke.

- Sloonei has never voted scrap to a majority scrap winner.

- sig has literally never voted for scrap.

- Ted gave me scrap literally every night. What a sweet boy.

[Long Con]

@MacDougall I see your vote is on LC but I see no explanation

I think myo is town. I haven't been fully focused on this game for the last couple of days so I was just following the other wagon.

Even with the tedxtr reveal and post-reveal analysis.

[Long Con]

Switching over to Myo so I'm not self-voting anymore. And because he's our lynch today. [VOTE: Myo] aubergine

[Myo]

Long Con and JaggedJimmyJay are still my top 2 wolf picks.

Why

I've already written why Long Con is sus:

Can you sum up why you suspect LC and why you think Sloonei is town?

The Lon Con answer.

Sloonei, Nanook, Nutella are all lock clear.

Sig and Spacedaisy voted late on Soneji when LC looked like getting lynched.

I'd say the scum are Jack + LC + one of sig/Spacedaisy. Whichever of the two Jack spewed more.

Sllonei only works if LC is mafia too yeah?

Nah I clear him because I don't believe that he wouldn't clue Jack in sooner. Jack was totally not realising he was nearly lynched.

Lynch me tomorrow and then win the game for me. Works for me.

This comes across as extremely ’so there’ to me. I don’t think that Lon Con was actually in any danger of being lunched when he commented this and it’s kind of a discussion closer. It seems unnecessary. If it was a joke, then it's gone over my head and stood out in a bad way.

MacDougall bad

Tell me more

Just had the idea that this is a Jack & Mac scheme. Max sudden insight at the eleventh hour and Jack innocently not even knowing the lynch was up, while conveniently being several pages behind and watching Animaniacs... just all kind of convenient. Also Mac keeps listing me as town on his list while calling me scum in the thread, which makes no sense.

I think paranoia is a good mark of townies, it’s hard to fake and have it feel genuine. Lon Con’s tin foil hat theory about Mac and Sloonie being the remaining 2 wolves post-JackofHearts2005 lunch doesn’t feel genuine to me. I expect paranoia theories to either be gradually built, or a snap reaction and this is neither. It’s all over the place, I jusy don’t follow the logic that led him to that conclusion.

Also the argument he has post-JackofHearts2005 lunch. I’d expect a townie to accept it and move on once it becomes obvious they’re getting no credit, he doesn’t.

I'm sus of you because you seem all over the place. You flip-flop back and forth on people all the time and incredibly quickly. And it's never hedged or uncertain. Once phase it's 'X is town' the next 'X is a wolf, lunch them'. It makes it seem like you have no real reads on people. You know who has no real reads on people? Wolves, that's who.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm sus of you because you seem all over the place. You flip-flop back and forth on people all the time and incredibly quickly. And it's never hedged or uncertain. Once phase it's 'X is town' the next 'X is a wolf, lunch them'. It makes it seem like you have no real reads on people. You know who has no real reads on people? Wolves, that's who.

Understandable perspective. But my name is Jay and I don't concern myself with all of that. I make reads in the moment and go with my intuition -- which is ever-changing. Being consistent is the easiest thing a mafioso can do.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Myo[/mention] you recently corrected yourself about Long Con suspecting Sloonei and Mac. You realized you had that wrong. Does that impact your read on Long Con at all?

[Myo]

@Myo you recently corrected yourself about Long Con suspecting Sloonei and Mac. You realized you had that wrong. Does that impact your read on Long Con at all?

No. I don't know why I thought it was 'and Sloonie' instead of just MacDougall but my main point was that the suggestion itself was weird and didn't feel like a genuine paranoia read.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Myo seems like a civilian again.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

wtf Jiwon voted

[Myo]

Myo seems like a civilian again.

I'll vote Jiwon with you to save my own neck if that's a vote that other people can get behind. It's not my first choice but she shows up for this vote despite not having made any comments this phase that I can see. I can certainly see a scenario where she is evil and being prodded to vote this phase since it's been brought up against her (and her name has been tossed around more recently).

[Sloonei]

wtf Jiwon voted

Dislike.
[VOTE: Jiwon] aubergine

[motobot]

I'm feeling better now and can be here tomorrow to talk about who is bad.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm feeling better now and can be here tomorrow to talk about who is bad.

Looking forward to it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So gang who wants to destroy a rebel ship?

[MacDougall]

yeah destroy dat

[JaggedJimmyJay]

yeah destroy dat

Do you think anything of Jiwon’s voting behavior

[sig]

I think the secret to not being lynched on TS is to just be inactive.

[MacDougall]

yeah destroy dat

Do you think anything of Jiwon’s voting behavior

Jiwon is town. You know this.

[sig]

I think the secret to not being lynched on TS is to just be inactive.

But, for real, work kicked my ass did more hours/was more tired than expected and have Army stuff today and tomorrow. So I'll try to pop in throughout the day and I'll at least vote today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

yeah destroy dat

Do you think anything of Jiwon’s voting behavior

Jiwon is town. You know this.

I definitely don't

[sig]

@Myo @sig what are your thoughts as of this moment?

I don't believe in thinking

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Things're sure looking up 'round here.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]MacDougall[/mention] why are Jiwon and Myo town, help me out please

[sig]

Good chance that Ted's death means one of the cleared civs is mafia probably. But, I'll be reviewing the two main wagons and if i can find the cases easily the cases then vote

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Good chance that Ted's death means one of the cleared civs is mafia probably. But, I'll be reviewing the two main wagons and if i can find the cases easily the cases then vote

why

[sig]

- Jiwon has voted for scrap 4 out of 4, but for a lynch only 1 out of 3. Whacke.

- Sloonei has never voted scrap to a majority scrap winner.

- sig has literally never voted for scrap.

I voted twice!

linki: Two reasons.
1. Too many heavy hitters are still around, one of you is mafia if none of you are killed soon.
2. More specifically for cleared people, we've got two right now and like I said way back D2 bussing when not needed is a tactic Jack has used in the past. Same for Mac/Sloonie.

[sig]

Or mafia are new/inactive

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Or mafia are new/inactive

There's the problem.

I have absolutely no idea how to determine that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Was my initial reaction but also Sloonei isn't the type to just lolvote sig so he may have seen something there that I did not.

I feel like Sloonei's votes are pretend for the first 3/4ths of D1 and Sig somehow pocketed me in a game recently iirc. Covid? Like I'm just gonna let that stuff play out without worrying about what either of them are doing atm. Unless when I read the posts I've missed there's nothing else interesting going on.

Mirrored a lot of my thoughts Jack. Shall we dance together in honour of our failure to do so in the recent game?

Yeah and when we come to an agreement on who is scummy, we agree not to lynch them.

I don't understand this but deal!

The joke is we found each other last game...and then together, decided that Nanook and Boo were the mafia but they were both town.

Good joke actually

nah doesn't feel like teammates

[JaggedJimmyJay]

nutella doesn't look like a teammate either. He whimsical consideration of the LC/Jack scenario at EOD looks authentic.

Also possible either Mac or nutella was the target of the failed kill.

[sig]

Or mafia are new/inactive

There's the problem.

I have absolutely no idea how to determine that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The evidence is thin, but all we can do is work with what we have. If there's a mafioso in the town core, I struggle to see those lynches happening unless the rest of the players start playing on full blast and clear themselves.