Space Invaders [END]

[Dyslexicon]

5 year old meta GOAT

I bet I'm scum if I'm not doing the exact same thing on MU 5 years ago as I'm doing this game. DDL probably just gave me the wrong role.

Don’t you hate it when the host gives you a town role but you know in your heart you’re supposed to be mafia that game

No, cause I never hate to be town and I always hate to be mafia and I'm always town. <3

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

5 year old meta GOAT

I bet I'm scum if I'm not doing the exact same thing on MU 5 years ago as I'm doing this game. DDL probably just gave me the wrong role.

Don’t you hate it when the host gives you a town role but you know in your heart you’re supposed to be mafia that game

No, cause I never hate to be town and I always hate to be mafia and I'm always town. <3

Fair!

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Has proto given any semi-original reads yet? I’m too lazy to look

[protocultures]

just woke up to 7 new pages of posts. the great wall of china is coming - dont worry.

[Rej]

Hey guys I am stuck on page 8 for now. And i would place my vote on Mac/Drago slot for sure now.

GTH: never seen Mac out of place like this (skimmed over him)

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine




Meh pages also came faster than I am able to read at work xD you guys know the shit. My PoE will arrive later than usual. If details ping me, Ill tryna quote them.

[MacDougall]

Does me having votes on me actually do anything at all? I thought this was a pew pew game? What's the deal lol

[MacDougall]

Hey guys I am stuck on page 8 for now. And i would place my vote on Mac/Drago slot for sure now.

GTH: never seen Mac out of place like this (skimmed over him)

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine




Meh pages also came faster than I am able to read at work xD you guys know the shit. My PoE will arrive later than usual. If details ping me, Ill tryna quote them.

You people bore me

[Alison]

S7 G5 (Town) - Dyslexicon opens the game by attacking Okosan before giving a single townread - "We should probably just speed lynch Okosan and get it done with." Tone is confident, little to no reason given and may well be a stretch, which is consistent with their attack on Dragomir at least. "I just highly disagree [with the opinion that one should hide their townreads]. Having a strong town core and a PoE is usually what wins town games at my home site." This is consistent with throwing around a bunch of townreads, sorta, and is very consistent with the "I want people to be town and I look out for them being town" attitude they claim to have. "Reading up on what's happened before saying hi. Classic scum move." is at least consistent with the "attacks player strongly for completely null stuff" I had an issue with earlier. "Here's how, as I see it: As town it's important to find other town for, particularly, two reasons." - consistent with "I want people to be town and I look out for them being town". First reads list on page 10 - 4 townreads, 5 nulls, 4 scumreads.

Conclusion: + points for every meta claim except "having a lot of townreads is a town tell for me".

Girl Genius 1.0 (Town) - "You may now enjoy a lock town status from D0... Will the bad guys be annoyed that town finds each other this early? Yes" - + points for basically every meta claim, from drawing conclusions based on null stuff, to throwing townreads around extremely freely, to trying to townhunt hard and establish a towncore really quickly. "Nova actually posting, and that's not a read. sig says weird stuff, and that's not a read. Gut on Owner and Nut for town for almost no reason. Think I liked some of Tony's posts." - + points for being consistent with meta claims. "I'll hand out all the town cred I feel like, thanks!" - this on Day 0. Consistent with throwing around a ton of townreads early on. First reads list, 10 pages in: 3 town, 4 null but okay, 3 null but suspicious, 2 scum. I guess if we count "null but okay" as being roughly equivalent to "sorta town", we can count this as 7 townreads really early on in the game.

Conclusion: + points for every meta claim.

Girl Genius 2.0 (Mafia) - Partners were juliets, Michelle, sabie and sig. "Lol. Maybe juliets is town or at least not mafia, think mafia would be aware of who's lynched and not" - defends teammate. "Also don't like this. "Red checked? I like her posts." What did you like about them?" and "Oh ok. I didn't like Michelle assuming red check on Luna, but then also saying she liked her posts though. What do you think about that?" - attacks teammate. Pushes a couple of PoEs with teammates in them later on - attacks teammate. The attacks were there and angled suspicion at teammates, but wasn't nearly as pointed as their attack on Dragomir. I guess it's a wash? "And from experience it's kind of dangerous to point to things as "slips" cause a lot of the time I've seen it to turn out town that just makes weird jumps or associations." - this comes from mafia so I can't be sure how sincere it is, but it is amusing that they're saying basically the same thing at least.

Conclusion: not really sure what to make of this one. The fact that it's day 4 and not day 0/1 would probably color their opinions on bussing also. I'm putting this down as largely a wash.

ITA Death Mash (Town) - Very little content in general. "And that is pretty much the only read I have right now of people still alive." - only one read on Day 2, which doesn't fit with the "I like to throw a lot of reads around and see what sticks/I always have a lot of townreads as town". But I'm not comfortable drawing too many conclusions from this because they literally have 27 posts in the whole game.

Conclusion: sample size is too small. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to draw an inference one way or another, it's a slight minus because of the lack of throwing reads around.

Anonymous Petrology (Mafia) - literally 8 posts in the entire game, with minimal content spread across all of them. Technically they didn't bus their teammates like they said, but, well, 8 posts.

Conclusion: sample size is too small.

Mafia Universe Anniversary 2019 (Mafia) - Teammates are BATMAN, Bunny, Egix, ladd, Tea, Professor Plum, JMurder3, Litten, Eragon, bopolis, RedFlavor, dobby, sheepsaysmeep, baudib1, Enoch Kaine, TehBankertin, Riki. Was a humongous game (over a hundred players), so will take that into account when looking at meta stuff. Literally 0 attacks or votes on any teammates in the entirety of their ISO. Actively defends Bunny.

Conclusion: strongly supports the idea that Dyslexicon doesn't often bus teammates as scum.

Fruits and Vegetables (Town) - Rapid-fired 7 reads on post #103, a lot of them based on one or two posts. 2 townreads, 3 nullreads, 2 scumreads. "I'm almost certain that Quick is town. He does not come into the game and call me mafia first thing as scum, he just don't. So if I flip at a point that is my hard read on Quick just based on that. Sue me." - + points to finding it really easy to read people as town, I guess.

Conclusion: Is willing to make lots of early game reads based on one or two posts or otherwise really small amounts of stuff. + points for that meta claim, I suppose.

S3 G2 (Town) - "Cause if I was scum I'd post something like that to seem like careless town." The "that" they were referring to was someone correcting a typo, which I guess is evidence that they're willing to read people as scum for really nullish posts. Can't find anything else for or against their meta claims in the early pages of this game.

Conclusion: + points towards the idea that they're willing to make logical leaps to read someone as town.

The Disney Game (Town) - 7 posts total, not reading this since I don't think I can get any meaningful information out of a 7 post ISO in 2015.

[MacDougall]

[Alison]

Since people aren't going to bother reading everything I wrote above - the long story short is that I was probably wrong about Dizzy and the claims they made about their meta do appear to be supported by evidence in their games and from reading them I can believe that they would behave the way they did as town.

The only meta claim that isn't supported is the excessively large townread:scumread ratio, but there is evidence that they're willing to just throw out towncred "like candy" (actual quote from someone they were playing with) so I'll give them a pass for that.

[Dyslexicon]

I commend your work, Alison. But I have to say, I really don't think that is the most fruitful way to read me. Or it wouldn't be for me, anyway. You of course do as you please. If your point was more to get a sense of who I am as a player, that is fruitful probably. Also, I think you're looking at the wrong account in the petrology game. I'm "Migmatite" in that game and have a lot of posts.

[MacDougall]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone go to those lengths before. We're in uncharted waters here.

[Rej]

I gotta admit, I much prefer hunting for scum the good old fashioned way than mechanical play, every damn time.

normally yes but I feel like I need a hefty amount of experience with epi to be able to tell if his play up til now is indicative of town or scum

But that's not your task, is it? That's nutella's burden.

I don't see any reason you are a civilian. You are acting like you're my judge. You're not. nutella is. And she has the requisite experience with me that you bemoan lacking.

Omg you are so full of shit lol. You are basically saying "town don't need to town". Get rekt. SHoot this egg.

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

[Dyslexicon]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone go to those lengths before. We're in uncharted waters here.

I did in my champs game lol. I even applied for memberships to sites just to get a sense of how they play over there. =p

[Dyslexicon]

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

Hi, Rej. Are you scum? Yes/no. I feel yes, but you can talk me into a no.

[MacDougall]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone go to those lengths before. We're in uncharted waters here.

I did in my champs game lol. I even applied for memberships to sites just to get a sense of how they play over there. =p

I stand corrected.

[Rej]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone go to those lengths before. We're in uncharted waters here.

Did you find your towncore until now?
If yes tell me please.

[MacDougall]

I gotta admit, I much prefer hunting for scum the good old fashioned way than mechanical play, every damn time.

normally yes but I feel like I need a hefty amount of experience with epi to be able to tell if his play up til now is indicative of town or scum

But that's not your task, is it? That's nutella's burden.

I don't see any reason you are a civilian. You are acting like you're my judge. You're not. nutella is. And she has the requisite experience with me that you bemoan lacking.

Omg you are so full of shit lol. You are basically saying "town don't need to town". Get rekt. SHoot this egg.

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

Ughhhhh can u just not

[Rej]

Wtf you guys typin faster than me trying to send. I spent 10 pushed on the submit button until I bypassed the flood of new messages. Kappa

[Rej]

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

Hi, Rej. Are you scum? Yes/no. I feel yes, but you can talk me into a no.

I am not scum. I am the towniest towny and I am optimistic.

[MacDougall]

Hey Rej what you been up to long time no see? Good to see you mate.

[Alison]

I commend your work, Alison. But I have to say, I really don't think that is the most fruitful way to read me. Or it wouldn't be for me, anyway. You of course do as you please. If your point was more to get a sense of who I am as a player, that is fruitful probably. Also, I think you're looking at the wrong account in the petrology game. I'm "Migmatite" in that game and have a lot of posts.

My point is to get an idea of whether or not you would be likely to set out your readslist in the way you did as town, with a specific eye to certain behaviors I found suspicious. I concluded that you had displayed those behaviors multiple times as town before, so I retracted my scumread on you.

[Alison]

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

Hi, Rej. Are you scum? Yes/no. I feel yes, but you can talk me into a no.

I am not scum. I am the towniest towny and I am optimistic.

What are you optimistic about?

[Rej]

Hey Rej what you been up to long time no see? Good to see you mate.

Thanks man, I missed the people here so i decided to check in. Was pushing up to other mafia section, one is brand new on a newer forum. But now I take some time for some games before again dipping into nothingness.

[Rej]

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

Hi, Rej. Are you scum? Yes/no. I feel yes, but you can talk me into a no.

I am not scum. I am the towniest towny and I am optimistic.

What are you optimistic about?

The outcome of this DP, like us!bunkers doing a good job, or nutella!laser in coherence with us!town

[Rej]

I feel this one sounds like desperate try to shade Epi.
My D1 reads on Epi were often on point and my gut tells me Epi is town and that Mac!alien throws a desperate shade.

Hi, Rej. Are you scum? Yes/no. I feel yes, but you can talk me into a no.

I am not scum. I am the towniest towny and I am optimistic.

What are you optimistic about?

Oh btw, maybe you should know that Dragomir and me come from the same forum. Sometimes we read each other correct D1, even if one of us scum and the other is town.
I wouldnt be optimistic if someone else would be the lynchee. Lmao.

[Rej]

Stuck on page 10 will be back later.

[MacDougall]

Hey Rej what you been up to long time no see? Good to see you mate.

Thanks man, I missed the people here so i decided to check in. Was pushing up to other mafia section, one is brand new on a newer forum. But now I take some time for some games before again dipping into nothingness.

Hahaha you crazy. That's crazy etc.

[protocultures]

Alright, so day 0 finished, Dragonmir got subbed out, boss music came on and MacDougal entered the game. I still have not have anyone confirm to me whether we get flips after town laser kills.
Heres where I am at in the game.

So since Dragonmir is out, I isoed their posts for background on Mac. Feels kinda null to me so I am okay giving Mac a clean slate to start the game. I feel there were some people who hard wanted to laser Dragomir – it felt kinda bandwagon to me and I feel there are better targets.

Alison – don’t know what to make of the thinking bunkers had one shot issue. Their explanation seems meh, other than this, their posts make me think they are town. Putting on my tin foil hat, instead of looking through Dyslexicons games to identify their meta, what if they are in alien chat and dyslexicon fed them the games/outcomes. Not an idea that I am strongly pushing for now, but something for postgame just in case I am right. [since i started writing, more posts have come up - I want to push this possivility much more now]

Bimbo – has zero posts. Not sure I understand why Dragonmir was subbed out instead of Bimbo. Do we not punish lurker/afk players at the syndicate? Probably not worth a laser at this point, and hopefully they get modkilled or come in with some posts later on.

Carotenoid – seems a bit null to town in posts. I give them hard town cred for finding error in my math to push off my mixed save strategy. Nutella had semi bought into the mixed save strat earlier in the day, and Caro identified it as being bad. Doesn’t have to do this as an alien at all.

Dyslexicon – literally their first 6 posts are memes which made me think they are aliens or probably good to be laser shot regardless of alignment. Trying to put it down to day 0 memes and re-evaluate on them. Rest of posts are kinda null to me. I feel like they might be intentionally trying to look not massively town and aim for the middle of the pack between town and alien to avoid getting night KP on them.

Dunya – still confuses me. I want to lean their posts kinda town BUT they townread epi and want to murdertrain Dargonmir/Macdougal which makes me deduct town points. A lot of them. Put them in the cant read and sort later if I need to pile.

Epignosis – I still want to burn them with fire. They also want to kill DragonDougal. So more petrol here please. Thinks LC is town.

LongCon – Probably still my number 2 alien. Some posts make me want to them to live a bit longer for me to re-evaluate on them potentially.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME – seems to be being universally townread. I think their later post quality has dropped significantly. Just posting to stay active. I stick them in the null category.

Rej – Don’t have much on them. No suggestions for solving, just some reads on players here and there.

Soneji – one post, lets hope they post more or get mod killed.

TonyStarkPrime – up there with my towniest of towns, but seems to also think Epi is town. If I turn out wrong on Epi, gonna have to re-evaluate everything again which would be a massive pain. Could just be a bad read on their part. Still one of my top towns.

Tutuu – also being universally townread. Am okay with that.

MacDougal – I just don’t think they joined the game if they were mafia where they are in too many games already. Don’t think we should attach massive reads from Dragonmir onto Macdougal since it was only 1 day and we should be able to independently read macdougal in future days.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I still have not have anyone confirm to me whether we get flips after town laser kills.

You do.

[MacDougall]

Proto more like hero

[Alison]

Since the conversation has moved on, I see no reason in saying my theory about Epignosis. I think he was trying to be intentionally provocative to try to squeeze some kind of reaction out of me. It would explain the rapid escalation of hostility as well as the weird hangup about me "judging" people despite doing the same thing himself. I thought it was just scummy at first, then I thought maybe it was a part of his personality, but the fact that he kept prodding and poking at me specifically eventually made me suspect that he was doing it as a reaction test of some kind. After I disengaged he moved onto wanting to shoot Mac instead of me and had a much calmer tone which makes me think I was right in suspecting this.

If this theory is correct, and I think it is, then Epi is a pretty solid townread of mine. Scum don't pull this kind of convoluted reaction test in general, and when they do they do it in order to get towncred, which was not what Epi did (since I realized what he was doing independently, without him pointing it out or otherwise trying to claim "credit" for it).

[protocultures]

Since the conversation has moved on, I see no reason in saying my theory about Epignosis. I think he was trying to be intentionally provocative to try to squeeze some kind of reaction out of me. It would explain the rapid escalation of hostility as well as the weird hangup about me "judging" people despite doing the same thing himself. I thought it was just scummy at first, then I thought maybe it was a part of his personality, but the fact that he kept prodding and poking at me specifically eventually made me suspect that he was doing it as a reaction test of some kind. After I disengaged he moved onto wanting to shoot Mac instead of me and had a much calmer tone which makes me think I was right in suspecting this.

If this theory is correct, and I think it is, then Epi is a pretty solid townread of mine. Scum don't pull this kind of convoluted reaction test in general, and when they do they do it in order to get towncred, which was not what Epi did (since I realized what he was doing independently, without him pointing it out or otherwise trying to claim "credit" for it).

this is the most convoluted thing ever and screams town except now I have this idea in my head that you two *might* be in alien chat together laughing your assess off at us. Cant get to a conclusion so need to park it there and see what other people think.

[Carotenoid]

I read the 7 pages that magically appeared while I was sleeping and euh. I feel like my reads haven't really changed and I'm not too sure what to think about that.

[mention]Alison[/mention], why go to such extent for Dyslexicon meta, but not with Epignosis meta?
Why did you suspect Dragomir in the first place?
You said « dyslexicon's "everyone is town or null except drago" readslist still reeks of bussing to me and I think there's a significant chance that they're partners together », now that you think that Dyslexicon is town, how does it impact your read of Dragomir-MacDougall?

MacDougall is chaos, Rej, Soneji and bimbo are still missing in action...

[Carotenoid]

Since the conversation has moved on, I see no reason in saying my theory about Epignosis. I think he was trying to be intentionally provocative to try to squeeze some kind of reaction out of me. It would explain the rapid escalation of hostility as well as the weird hangup about me "judging" people despite doing the same thing himself. I thought it was just scummy at first, then I thought maybe it was a part of his personality, but the fact that he kept prodding and poking at me specifically eventually made me suspect that he was doing it as a reaction test of some kind. After I disengaged he moved onto wanting to shoot Mac instead of me and had a much calmer tone which makes me think I was right in suspecting this.

If this theory is correct, and I think it is, then Epi is a pretty solid townread of mine. Scum don't pull this kind of convoluted reaction test in general, and when they do they do it in order to get towncred, which was not what Epi did (since I realized what he was doing independently, without him pointing it out or otherwise trying to claim "credit" for it).

this is the most convoluted thing ever and screams town except now I have this idea in my head that you two *might* be in alien chat together laughing your assess off at us. Cant get to a conclusion so need to park it there and see what other people think.

I don't like the wording (see bold part). If, then... It kinda feels like a coinflipish read.
And like. Alison dug up impressive meta for Dyslexicon, but not for Epignosis, even if she said something like she would need more experiences to assess if he just always play like that.

[tutuu]

This game is easy

Alison is obvious town
Dizzy is obvious town

Doesnt even need explanation

So let me see here:

The 4 aliens are in (imo):

Macdougall, Tonystark, bimbo, Long Con, Rej, Soneji, Carotte, Proto

Id be very very surpised if this list has less than 4 maf

Proto and Carotte are putting a lot of effort so they should live, maybe it's just a me problem that I'm not seeing their townyness

I'll iso tony to see if they did some reads or am i crazy for thinking they havent shared a lot of reads

[tutuu]

Oh ur name is carotenoid sorry. Can i keep calling u carrote pls

[tutuu]

Uhm

Apologies if im tunneling, im not the best at mafia

But can u guys pls ISO tony and tell me am i crazy for thinking its an obv mafia?

[Carotenoid]

Yeah you can call me Carotte, it's my usual pseudonym!
Sure I'll iso him

[protocultures]

This game is easy

Apologies if im tunneling, im not the best at mafia

lol.

I dislike your "obvious" townreads with no explanation needed.

I feel like where aliens have full chat, there is massive potential to gaslight the town/Nutella into thinking certain people are "obvious town" just by repeating things over and over. Its why I hate when people just make statements like this with zero backup. It doesnt allow town to work through their logic to ascertain whether it is likely to be town or alien logic.

I dont need to put a lot of effort in to live, Im new so its unlikely I get killed day 1 in any event.

Doesnt make you an alien though. Your random aggro dismissive post style seems too... awkward for an alien to make intentionally.

[Carotenoid]

TonyStarkPrime

#69 #71 is his entrance to the thread. It's.. weird but okay, townread Epignosis.

Then comes a lot of mechanic talk. He proposes that bottom of POE protect, which is okay.

maybe just aliens+1 bottom names in the poe protects

Not sure what it means but okéééé?

And then this happens:

That's all of the necessary mechanics talk today.

Three people don't like space movies. These should make up the bottom of the poe.

update: two of them aren't in the game

It's a bit really underwhelming. And it's not even funny.
20 minutes later on #128, mechanic talk is back. No read on anyone, if we're kind we can give #149 as a slight scum read on protocultures, but literally the minute after he "scans" the math for a townread so not sure it's worth anything. A few hours pass.

On #246 he reacts to my scumread on Epignosis saying it's town, no read on tutuu and ignoring the Long Con part. Explanation on #261 that is not really convincing and never answers me about #280

A bit later this happens:

I also think this game is sorting very easily and day 1 hasn't started yet which is usually a bad sign

usually a bad sign = usually I'm wrong about how things are going. but I'd be happy to be right

The thing is. TonyStarkPrime didn't have any reads yet? So that means nothing. Not good.
Answers my « is this a "prepare tinfoil theory" post? » of #301 in #304 but then never answer my #307 when I question him about his reads of the moment. Second ignored question. Not good.

A few hours pass again, #536 seems a tad agressive for ?? reason.
And then we go from "mac wolf" to "unfortunately this is kinda where my head is at as well" to "I don't think drago was necessarily a wolf. drago is just drago". His position is not clear despite having a couple of consecutive messages on the same slot.

#559 suspects dunya
but in a really... Nice way? As in trying to suspect someone without it being noticed? The thing I hate about this post is that it ends with "Along these lines I think 5-6 names form an immediately available poe." But no names. And no follow-up. Not good.

#596 can be read as "suspecting Alison without suspecting Alison" which is not good too.

--

IN SUMMARY:

• He has not answered two questions that were adresse to him about his reads;
• For someone who said "enough mech talk", he has a really underwhelming number of reads;
• His only consistent read is Epignosis town and is based on a "mindset thing";
• All his other reads/positions are really meh/dodgy;
• There's a recurring scheme of pretending to think about the reads he has but that no one else know and that never translate in concrete posts/actions in the thread.

CONCLUSION:
Yeah TonyStarkPrime might definitely be an alien.

[Soneji]

People posting too much for a d0

I don't see any need to tell nutella what to do. I would rather nutella just kill someone.

It's not telling, just suggesting.

Vote Epignosis

(yes, I know it doesn't do anything, I just want to make it clear what my stance is from day to day)


Making a list of who protects who only gives more information to the mafia about who is unprotected. And mafia wins the game immediately if they kill nutella, so it is completely useless to know who failed to protect her the day after we lose the game. The strategy you are proposing would make it trivially easy for the mafia to win just by attacking the operator on the night where a mafia member is scheduled to protect her. And a public list of who protects who would make it easier for the mafia to know who they can safely kill since there isn't enough heals to protect everyone at once.

It is correct for town to keep when and who they are using their protect on secret so mafia doesn't know who is being protected, if the operator is shielded, and how many protects the town has left.

Why are you preemptively thinking you'll be called out for making a vote, even in a game where they don’t officially matter to the lynch?

The primary goal with the protects isn't to be blocking every shot, just those aimed at nutella. The secondary goal with the protects should be to keep the towncore alive.

Oh yea i was also thinking of using RNG to determine our protections

like idk the numbers but lets say arbitrarily say 10% , each bunker goes to rand.org or however eas the site, rolls between 1 and 100, if its 1 to 10 they protect nutella, otherwise save their shot. Obv different on even nights and as more of us die but u get the idea. Like, just think of some numbers that will give us good odds, i think its okay to slightly potentially lose the game on the first night if it means bigger chance to win in the end

That’s not what we’re doing lol

feels annoying to disparage my idea without even giving it a chance as if its something silly, and as if luck isnt already involved to a degree in mafia

This plan seems too wolfy to be a wolf, especially with the genuine seeming offense to their idea being dismissed.

Also, I'm a bunker and I'm always going to be defending nutella. Don't waste your defense on me.

That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."

On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....

and if Epi's an alien...

Also, I'm a bunker and I'm always going to be defending nutella. Don't waste your defense on me.

That should say "Don't waste your defense on nutella."

On the multikill nights more people need to protect me though right?

I only vaguely understand the setup....

2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl

This is over is an alien laser shoots nutella. That's it.

Bunkers have limited protections. After I'm spent, someone else will need to carry on in my stead (or if I get killed).

This is about setting up a network of protections so that it's clear who failed and is therefore mafia.

regardless, I think this is town

Sow doubt on Epi, then swiftly call him town anyways:hmm

We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied

okay, but I'm not going through with this unless there are at least 2 people defending Nutella and possibly 3

@linki oh yeah and bunker protects are limited. It might be best to save them until endgame and just force the poe to protect Nutella each day

The PoE are almost always going to be the ones you least want protecting the Laser.

All this strategy talk is hurting my brain. I'm merely glancing at these posts right now.

Drago got replaced so not expecting Mac to answer for this, but yeah trying to act lost here when everyone else is doing fine with mechanics talk, and offering up nothing else besides is a bad look.

All this strategy talk is hurting my brain. I'm merely glancing at these posts right now.

Then ignore mechanics, project town and find scum. We’ll take care of the mechanics.

Good look from Nanook to push Drago into being productive.

Drago doesnt like Spacemovies = bad

Dunya, Alison and Tutu are town GTH, nice energy.
Not excluding the possibility that a wolf is coordinating the mechtalk with others.

Tho nothing else pinged me for now. I am at work, will be properly active later on.

Toss out a few townreads, blanket shade the majority of the game thread, then dip. Whoo boy.

It is likely that there was a wolf participating in the mech discussion just on the probability that one was around to post and that it was the main conversation point, but pointing this out without giving a specific person/s that come off wolfy with their approach to the discussion is just going to sow discord.

I think we should have at least 3 people saving nutella on any given day. The rest can be up to whatever people wanna do and leave it as a mystery for the aliens to misfire. Hunting through nk is hard at this stage if we want to preserve saves. So we can do regular hunting and I think we already have lots of good content to go through.

How do we go about selecting those 3 ppl?

Tony thinks our scummiest 4 should protect her. We coordinate that itt. I understand why, but my scummiest 4 could be the whole maf team gg y'all ;p but yeah, for a day 1 strategy it makes most sense.

I think it works only for a n1 strategy, as the scum team would have to be exactly the bottom #2-5 of the PoE for us to lose there(the very bottom #1 gets blasted by nutella).

Hello fellow players. First forum game for me, I am a fairly new mafia player but have played on DM a few times and play the occasional voice/text game over discord. I live in GMT timezone so will probably be out of sync with a lot of you. I draft in word and paste into the forum so hopefully the formatting doesn’t go into the toilet. As editing posts is forbidden, I may repost if this turns out to be a problem.

Spoiler: show

The setup is new to me, so I will state a brief understanding of how this works below. If other people have a different view/better understanding, it would be great if people (or the mod) could let me know.

10 bunkers with 4 saves each who don’t know anything other than Nutella is the Laser.

4 aliens who have perfect information.

Odd nights – 1 alien KP.

Even nights – 2 alien KP till 2.

QUESTION – if player x saves themselves, or player y saves player x, and the town laser is shot at player x, does the laser go through the bunker save?

QUESTION – This is a day 0 start, so does laser get to shoot at the end of Day 0? Does it go to Night 0 or Night 1? This is important to work out alien KP and how many saves should be on Nutella.

QUESTION – can aliens no shoot in the night?

I feel like there is a mathematically optimal solution to this game for every night but I am not smart enough to figure it out.

My proposal for Night 0 or Night 1, depending on which it will be is set out below.

We want the minimum number of saves on Nutella but with some math behind it. These saves should be selected and made public by Nutella and all players who are nominated by Nutella to save Nutella should indeed save Nutella with no exceptions. They need to confirm receipt of the message and confirm they will save Nutella, or Nutella needs to re-nominate someone who has seen their request. This should be entirely elected by Nutella and not depend on people saying they will save Nutella – ie picking into Dunya/Epignosis without rnging them is bad.

The other players should make their saves or no saves in secret, but claim them at the start of the next day along with reasons. Town should never lie about their saves in the night and I am a firm believer of laser all liars in this setup.
If aliens have 1 night KP, I suggest 3 nominated saves and if aliens have 2 night KP, I suggest 4 nominated saves.
See some napkin math below which might be wrong, but lets see if I can still remember combinatronics.
1 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 1 town save, so this is basically any outcome except 3 aliens in the 3 nominations. This is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% Laser lives through the night. I can accept a 1.1% loss in first night if the benefit is that we get to not waste additional bunker saves.
2 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 2 town saves. This gets a bit harder so please flame me loudly if there is an error in the math so we can try and fix it before we nominate saves (assuming I can get laser and town to buy into my plan).
With 4 nominations, there are 5 outcomes with the following distribution:

4 aliens: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 = 24/24,024 = 0.1% (we lose first night with no saves on Nutella)

3 aliens, 1 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 10/11 x 4 combos = 960/24,024 = 4 % (we lose first night with 1 saves on Nutella)

2 aliens, 2 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 10/12 x 9/11 x 6 combos = 6,480/24,024 = 27% (we land 2 saves on
Nutella)

1 alien, 3 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 4/11 x 4 combos = 11,520/24,024 = 48% (we land 3 saves on Nutella)

4 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 7/11 = 5,040 /24,024 = 21% (we land 4 saves on Nutella)

I am okay with 4.1% loss in first night.

My current reads/leanings. Cant necessarily justify them all, because its not always rational or justifiable. Its just how their posts make my gut feel.

Alison – hard town. Thinks Epignosis is alien, and agree re full list of saves being anti town.

Bimbo – no posts.

Carotenoid – light alien read for the short intro. Good to know Mac would agree.

Dragomir – null to light town.

Dyslexicon – null to alien for no solve in 3 posts. “game” doesn’t count and I believe is just to appear non-coaster.

Dunya – started off towny, but then slips into hard alien with the later posts. Implied statement that Carotenoid is town “Can't wait to see your super shiny townies self! ”, and the hard tunnel onto LC at the start of day 0. Might be a meta thing I just have no idea but could also just be distancing. Then claims laser will be fine because Dunya/Epi will be using their save onto the laser. “2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl”. This would be fine if they were both exactly town, but how does anyone else know they are both town? We don’t. “We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied” – this is also super alien. We should mix the saves into public and private so the aliens do not have perfect info on saves. Dunya in later posts moves back into town. My head hurts.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

Long Con – Alien. Cant believe they called themselves a bunkerman instead of a bunker person. Consider myself triggered. Gets slightly town for thinking that having no saves left day 5 onward is bad but not that much. “We have to assume the aliens will try to kill nutella every night. We will non-randomly arrange protects to ensure, and insure, that she has multiple layers of protection each night. We will do this in a way that eliminates the possibility of unfortuitously picking all aliens to protect her.” Seems towny but to eliminate the possibility of picking all aliens, we need to use a LOT of bunker saves every even night. Also thinks aliens will be trying to kill the laser every night. I hard disagree and think aliens will leave the laser alone all game since its way easier to kill all the bunkers and win that way. On a meta read without ever having played with them, I simply don’t believe someone with 13k posts would think the aliens would be trying to kill the laser every night.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME – light town for thinking a protection scheme can/should exist. Does not want rng factors into the saves onto Nutella and prefers a set scheme TBC. The arguments with tutu re “trolling” seems town on town to me.

Nutella – LASER

Protocultures – the towniest town that ever towned in the history of townhood

Rej – thinks Dunya, Alison and Tutuu are town GTH. No idea what GTH means but I kinda like their town circle.

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

TonyStarkPrime – Null to alien. The strategy of 4 most scummy players onto Laser is bad since if we get 3+ aliens, we insta lose. I much prefer a random 4 than we pick the 4 scummiest, especially since aliens will then try to look scummy intentionally.

Tutuu - Medium town. Wants to know if laser gets to shoot Day 0. Wants town to mass rng saves onto the laser and thinks its okay to lose a non-zero percentage on first night to increase overall town win percentage by not blowing all the bunker saves the first 4 days. I agree with this concept. Tutu thinks Dunya is light town and LongCon is town. I think its weird that Tutuu reads LongCon as town for subjectively incorrect logic, but it seems genuine.

The effort shown here, and in their many other posts, along with a solid progression on their reads puts proto as very likely town. I think the best look of all is this first post, where I would think an over eager, new to forum mafia wolf, would just think about impressing with their mechanics/math and forget to actually give proper reads but proto went above and beyond.

(ioa information over analysis is what i was looking for)

Doesn't surprise me given him saying he is new to forum mafia.

hyijifhinrjdfihbrenjdfhedsi aaaaaaaah multiquote button didn't work bierjnnfierhehuj
*take a deep breathe* it's gonna be okay
anyway

TonyStarkPrime's plan seems to be the best so far, but it's kinda risky to the not-poe-people past n1, if that makes sense. So I propose that we kinda flip it around:

- On odd nights, two top townreads (or like one top townread + 2 midlytownread that can't all be wolves together) protect nutella. And then we could do something like bottom of POE protect the people protecting nutella and all the others only self-protect if they feel the need to.

- On even nights, bottom of POE protect nutella. The rest of the players only self-protect if they feel the need to.

That way, the protection shots are used more horizontally and avoids that town ends up with no shots at the end. Also I feel like unless we specifically coordinate something specific in the thread, bunker shots should only be used on their own slot.

The odd night plan is pretty solid, but the even night is wack. You need to have confidence in there being two town protects in there on even nights. On odd nights needing just one you have more leeway to include the PoE.

I also think that nobody except Nutella should be saved, full stop. Including self saves.

How about NO! You crazy Dutch bastard!

ok, misread the OP - I thought each Bunker could only protect once. Apparently they have 4 shots. Still not enough to waste them on a mass protect of every player in the game.

Misread the OP versus misread role PM:hmm


Coming out of d0 roughly where I'm at :

Good

proto
tutuu
Dunya

Still deciding

Nanook
Long Con
Carot
Dizzy
Bimbo(don't think they posted?)

Bad

Epi
TSP
Alison
Rej
Drago/Mac


As for the strat I think is best : I'm good with the bottom four PoE strat for n1 only, otherwise think top 3 towncore should protect nutella on odd nights, top 4 towncore on even nights. Could mix in some of the middle of the pack to preserve some of the top towncores protects, best to adjust that as we go. On that first night, the middling PoE should use their protects on the towncore. On subsequent nights the bottom of the PoE should be protecting the towncore, with probably a double up on the very top of the towncore. Force aliens to shoot into bottom or middling Poe, or have to use two kills on even nights to kill one towncore and not even the best SPK they could get.

For simplicities sake, will lay out the first three nights :

N1 : Bottom four of the PoE assigned to protect nutella, while the next three lowest PoE protect the top 3 towncore.

N2 : Top three towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, while the bottom three to four in the PoE protect the top 3 towncore. If four double up on the very top towncore SPK.

N3 : Top two towncore+one middling PoE protect nutella, bottom three PoE protects top three towncore.

With this we can shuffle enough to have top towncore with protects left up until late. It's a small game, so I think people are overestimating how conservative we need to be with protects. By the end of n4, there can be up to 10 deaths if the aliens succeed on both their double kills. Then n5 being an odd night needs only one towncore with a protect left alive to secure nutella's safety.


Now onto d1.

[Long Con]

How do we know who's PoE?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m pretty strongly against using saves on anyone not named nutella. Nobody else really matters that much tbh, sorry guys and gals

[Soneji]

How do we know who's PoE?

Thread works to create a consensus, then nutella creates a final say PoE.

[Soneji]

I’m pretty strongly against using saves on anyone not named nutella. Nobody else really matters that much tbh, sorry guys and gals

Only so many saves can meaningfully go their way in the course of this small game.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m pretty strongly against using saves on anyone not named nutella. Nobody else really matters that much tbh, sorry guys and gals

Only so many saves can meaningfully go their way in the course of this small game.

Don’t care there’s not a reliable way to predict who will be alive at endgame (and thus who needs to still have saves), so I prefer hedging and not using saves on someone not named nutella.

[Soneji]

I’m pretty strongly against using saves on anyone not named nutella. Nobody else really matters that much tbh, sorry guys and gals

Only so many saves can meaningfully go their way in the course of this small game.

Don’t care there’s not a reliable way to predict who will be alive at endgame (and thus who needs to still have saves), so I prefer hedging and not using saves on someone not named nutella.

You use your other saves so that it isn't a matter of prediction who will be there at endgame...

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m pretty strongly against using saves on anyone not named nutella. Nobody else really matters that much tbh, sorry guys and gals

Only so many saves can meaningfully go their way in the course of this small game.

Don’t care there’s not a reliable way to predict who will be alive at endgame (and thus who needs to still have saves), so I prefer hedging and not using saves on someone not named nutella.

You use your other saves so that it isn't a matter of prediction who will be there at endgame...

If you show me a save scheme where that actually works then sure

[Epignosis]

I don't think drago was necessarily a wolf. drago is just drago

Look at the FTL game and you’ll see why I’m SRing him I think

As I recall, in FTL Mafia Dragomir never even saw his role PM and I took the initiative to replace him.