Space Invaders [END]

[Long Con]

You can trend me down if I'm wrong on Soneji.

Trending me down because you townread epi would be unfortunate.

I would go so far as to say shoot epi and if they flip town you can shoot me next day.

yea idk this doesnt feel like someone who knows soneji is about to flip scum? like would scum!proto really think that he could sway nut into not shooting soneji. ive seen nut in spec chat and she is not the easily swayed type

Less about nutella and more about proto. proto feels like a confident player, who might just believe he could sway nutella. I don't know proto though, just new impressions.

[Hally]

2) I suspected Dragomir in the first place primarily because the response to some people scumreading him was for Dizzy (who I theorized to be his wolf partner) to immediately bus him (or so I thought at the time). This is why when I put Dizzy and Dragomir down as scum on my initial list, I listed them together - because my theory was that they were specifically wolf buddies together and Dizzy was bussing him. I've later come into evidence about Dizzy's meta that shows that Dizzy's actions weren't necessarily a bus, which means that particular reason for suspecting Dragomir is out the window.

Hmnn sorry I don't follow you.
What do you mean "some people scumreading him was for Dizzy"?
"that particular reason for suspecting Dragomir" --> was there other reasons?

I mean that when Dragomir was scumread by some players, Dizzy immediately attacked him in a sketchy way. I wrote a huge post about why I found Dizzy's attack sketchy, although after my meta trawl I now think it's just the way he plays. At the time, I interpreted this as a sign that Dizzy was bussing Dragomir and trying hard to concoct a fake attack on him. Needless to say, if my theory is right, then Dizzy and Dragomir are scum together - so that is why I put them down as scum partners on my reads list.

The other reasons for suspecting Dragomir would be the "caught for the wrong reasons" tell Dizzy pointed out (which I said was a good point, even when I thought Dizzy was making it all up), and MacDougall's chaos in thread after subbing in.

...do you have other reads though? i feel like every post i read from you is about dizzy/mac but maybe im crazy. where are you at with like... other people?

[nutella]

Why Soneji? I like his reads and he's not even there.

i feel like scum just... doesnt say this directly after nut announces that she will most likely shoot soneji? like carotte would just be making herself look terrible for no reason

mm good point

[nutella]

Actually all three of them are probably mafia lol

why dunya? i have paranoia about her but idk where its coming from

Epi quoted some stuff that looks potentially w/w between her and soneji

[Hally]

Now if Soneji flips alien, you prob should shoot me since I tried to push shot to epi. And then you can townread epi until I flip town.

I don't know why you keep doing this wifomy preflip TMI shit when I've said twice it's scummy as hell.

it is actually getting kinda weird. almost to the point of trying to make himself look so bad that we’ll think he’s good? that seems dumb now that i write it. carotte purer than proto probably though if i had to weigh both their reactions

[nutella]

Agh mobile submission ate my post.

I don't like the shot on Soneji but don't have any super support for why not. Just here for the town cred post flip I guess.

The strong omgus from Epi is amusing and continues to make me believe they are an alien.

i feel like this is also not s/s with soneji for the same reason as carotte? but maybe this is a dumb way to think about it

His stuff was so WIFOM heavy I don't know what to make of it tbh but I kinda still lean town on him from other stuff

[nutella]

You can trend me down if I'm wrong on Soneji.

Trending me down because you townread epi would be unfortunate.

I would go so far as to say shoot epi and if they flip town you can shoot me next day.

yea idk this doesnt feel like someone who knows soneji is about to flip scum? like would scum!proto really think that he could sway nut into not shooting soneji. ive seen nut in spec chat and she is not the easily swayed type

lol

[Hally]

but like does carotenoid ever do this with scum buddy Soneji? Looking for cred?

tsp and i are mindmelding this game and tsp is obv town therefore i am also town. i’ve solved myself \o/

[Hally]

what is salad? educate me in the way of the jaggeds and the jays

[nutella]

but like does carotenoid ever do this with scum buddy Soneji? Looking for cred?

tsp and i are mindmelding this game and tsp is obv town therefore i am also town. i’ve solved myself \o/

yeah I'm feeling good about towncoring you + tsp + dizzy + epi + probably mac

[Hally]

Nutella you asked for strong views before you used your shot.

If you find me scummy, shoot me. You still have the difference check after I die.

why are you doing this though xD

[MacDougall]

Actually all three of them are probably mafia lol

why dunya? i have paranoia about her but idk where its coming from

Epi quoted some stuff that looks potentially w/w between her and soneji

After having looked at it again, that stuff is rather meh Tbh a lot of Epi's reads in this game have been him arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things. Quite a few times he's taken a firm stance on someone and my immediate response was "really guy"? His response post flip was a bit weird too. He's well within his mafia range.

[nutella]

what is salad? educate me in the way of the jaggeds and the jays

It's a tell when someone says "I'd be fine with eliminating player W, X, Y, or maaayyyyybe Z" and it's historically caught scum a decent number of times

[MacDougall]

I'm trying to interaction analyse Soneji and he's not really given much away I feel. There's nobody whose interactions with him make them look considerably townie.

[nutella]

Actually all three of them are probably mafia lol

why dunya? i have paranoia about her but idk where its coming from

Epi quoted some stuff that looks potentially w/w between her and soneji

After having looked at it again, that stuff is rather meh Tbh a lot of Epi's reads in this game have been him arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things. Quite a few times he's taken a firm stance on someone and my immediate response was "really guy"? His response post flip was a bit weird too. He's well within his mafia range.

He did a bunch of drunk post flip analysis not all of which was good tbh (I especially didn't see what he saw re: tutuu) but I thought the dunya catch was something and I feel she'd make sense as scum here

[MacDougall]

Here's what the spirit that dwells within my skinsuit has to say -

Alison - Wild and carefree like a townie ought to be
bimbo Hally - This soul is pure
Carotenoid - Darkness dwells here
Dragomir MacDougall - The god of mafia
Dyslexicon - There is a blockage in my thoughts here... I need to pull on this thread
dunya - Probably just town
Epignosis - Probably just town
Long Con - Probably just town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Probably just town (wtf spirit this is boring)
nutella - Laser Gun Operator - Clearly mafia
protocultures - Weird and fake
Rej - Rej is always mafia
TonyStarkPrime - The protagonist in our story
tutuu - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm what it be?

Interesting

[MacDougall]

Off to read dyslexicon

[Hally]

Good shot Nutella.

I def look bad now.

Going to put paranoia aside and townread Alison. If it turns out I was pocketed, so be it. I need to form some semblance of towncore.

I like Hally's analysis of early days. We think the same stuff. I will say it got harder for me on a bunch of people as the posts piled on.

why for allison?

[MacDougall]

Reads:

Town:
Tutu - Towny posts, good reasoning and mulling over of reads. I see nothing wrong.
Proto - Can be town for placing themselves in a position of handing out town cred to people. Making themselves the judge - towny thing.
Dunya - Probably town, and I really want her to be or else I fear it will be very difficult. Seems very proactive and starts getting reads asap. Only played with her once and I was scum that game, but she started giving reads asap there too. Be town.
Nanook - I don't think I've ever seen Nanook as scum, but gut vibe too stronk. I just liked the "Oh no, let's not be embarrassed" and also wanting to come up with a better plan but not having it yet. Just seemed genuine.

Townish:
Carot - I liked her aufhouahdfoajfpo and her reentrance to the thread.
LC - I kind of agree with Tutu's reasoning for town leaning on him. Him assuming scum would target Nut every night. Don't see anything wrong with his posts.
Tony - Maybe ever so slightly, cause I feel like he wanted to take control over strategy in a way that seemed towny. Not just following.

Null:
Epi - I really don't know.
Soneji - No comment.
Alison - I don't know yet. Not great tbh.
Rej - Also not great. Rej was an easy town read for me in a game way back I remember. I get nothing here.
Bimbo - Hi

Scummy:
Drag - Much scum wow. Haven't liked his posts. Feels like he's TMI-ing on Carot, scummy in interaction with Dunya. Also Dunya is never wrong, and if she is it's her fault and not mine.

Hmmmm

Was this before Soneji posted [mention]Dyslexicon[/mention]?

[MacDougall]

Hey, I just thought of something.
What if we lynch Nutella D1? Scum can't hurt us if we hurt ourselves first. Take the control back. Take the power. Get rekt, scum.

I hate this post

[Hally]

I don't think I'm nutella's "one true protector." That's silly. What I'm saying is that I'm going to protect her and already did. All other bunkers can protect one another. I understand if you don't believe me and want to hedge on that. Don't, but I understand if you do.

oh i wasn’t saying i don’t believe you! i didn’t mean it in a bad way. i actually think the mindset is more townish than not

[MacDougall]

Well I need space fuel before I continue.

coffee tell

But like seriously. That is classic scum tell.
40 % Alison bussing Epi from D0 because jumping to conclusions is how I play best

I feel like there is one of between Epi and Dyslexicon for some reason

[MacDougall]

OMG coffee tell lock scum tbh

Didn't I even see a coffee tell in my champs game and then proceeded to NOT point it out and then the guy was scum or am I just fantasising?

you're not, it happened.

it would be HILARIOUS if epi just coffee-telled tho. i'm telling you, i would die.

epi x dragomir x rej x alison

this is a strange reaction immediately jumping to world building off a meme tell...

[MacDougall]

Page 3

Do you expect players to come right off the bat with game solving in their entry post?

We get it, you know Carot is town, but Dunya doesn't, so give her a break.

Babyyy

Daaaaarling!

im confirmed derp cleared town. i was towny regardless. haters can eat my dab

We stan! Keep it coming, lock town <3

Maybe you havent eaten breakfast yet drago

Coffee tell by proxy

Long Con – On a meta read without ever having played with them, I simply don’t believe someone with 13k posts would think the aliens would be trying to kill the laser every night.

Why? Protecting Nut is where my mind went first as well. I don't think it's at all scummy to have your concern being not having Nut killed for a guaranteed loss. It's kind of the most glaring part about the setup. As town, my first thought is not "How would I play this if I was scum" believe it or not.

Ill add anyone to my town circle who finds an error in my math.

Plus its town sided to look through the math in the first place to see if I am for real trying to solve.

Dyslexicon feels very opportunistic in a lot of places and also pockety towards Dunya. A lot of basic bitch reads and very little beyond level 1. This is a really high chance of being mafia imo.

[MacDougall]

Between Epignosis/Dunya/Dyslexicon there is absolutely at least one mafia and maybe literally only one.

[Hally]

can i town read mac for making me laugh? is that allowed

Can I call you bad for thinking Mac is remotely funny?

but he is though. he said crapola. thats hilarious

[MacDougall]

Epi knows I am the funniest person on the site and it just eats him up inside. Hell I am the two time reigning funniest poster of the year.

[Hally]

people agree with me about rej \o/

[MacDougall]

Tbh him saying that is probably scummy lol

[MacDougall]

people agree with me about rej \o/

So I actually am not 100% sure how I feel about rej. I have scum read him in just about every game I've ever played with him. He's getting scum read by everyone. Soneji even gave him a bit of shade. I vetoed him from Nutella's list because I felt like in her list he was the most likely to be a bad shot.

[MacDougall]

Hmm Carot do you have a read on Dunya?

[MacDougall]

I actually am stunned that we shot mafia day 1 lol

[MacDougall]

Or more to the point nutella did...

[Carotenoid]

Hmm Carot do you have a read on Dunya?

not really

[MacDougall]

Nah actually fuck rej he's mafia lol

[MacDougall]

Hmm Carot do you have a read on Dunya?

not really

Really? Hmmm. Do you have any strong reads one way or the other?

[Hally]

I think we should have at least 3 people saving nutella on any given day. The rest can be up to whatever people wanna do and leave it as a mystery for the aliens to misfire. Hunting through nk is hard at this stage if we want to preserve saves. So we can do regular hunting and I think we already have lots of good content to go through.

How do we go about selecting those 3 ppl?

Tony thinks our scummiest 4 should protect her. We coordinate that itt. I understand why, but my scummiest 4 could be the whole maf team gg y'all ;p but yeah, for a day 1 strategy it makes most sense.

I think it works only for a n1 strategy, as the scum team would have to be exactly the bottom #2-5 of the PoE for us to lose there(the very bottom #1 gets blasted by nutella).

Teammate interaction.

Hello fellow players. First forum game for me, I am a fairly new mafia player but have played on DM a few times and play the occasional voice/text game over discord. I live in GMT timezone so will probably be out of sync with a lot of you. I draft in word and paste into the forum so hopefully the formatting doesn’t go into the toilet. As editing posts is forbidden, I may repost if this turns out to be a problem.

Spoiler: show

The setup is new to me, so I will state a brief understanding of how this works below. If other people have a different view/better understanding, it would be great if people (or the mod) could let me know.

10 bunkers with 4 saves each who don’t know anything other than Nutella is the Laser.

4 aliens who have perfect information.

Odd nights – 1 alien KP.

Even nights – 2 alien KP till 2.

QUESTION – if player x saves themselves, or player y saves player x, and the town laser is shot at player x, does the laser go through the bunker save?

QUESTION – This is a day 0 start, so does laser get to shoot at the end of Day 0? Does it go to Night 0 or Night 1? This is important to work out alien KP and how many saves should be on Nutella.

QUESTION – can aliens no shoot in the night?

I feel like there is a mathematically optimal solution to this game for every night but I am not smart enough to figure it out.

My proposal for Night 0 or Night 1, depending on which it will be is set out below.

We want the minimum number of saves on Nutella but with some math behind it. These saves should be selected and made public by Nutella and all players who are nominated by Nutella to save Nutella should indeed save Nutella with no exceptions. They need to confirm receipt of the message and confirm they will save Nutella, or Nutella needs to re-nominate someone who has seen their request. This should be entirely elected by Nutella and not depend on people saying they will save Nutella – ie picking into Dunya/Epignosis without rnging them is bad.

The other players should make their saves or no saves in secret, but claim them at the start of the next day along with reasons. Town should never lie about their saves in the night and I am a firm believer of laser all liars in this setup.
If aliens have 1 night KP, I suggest 3 nominated saves and if aliens have 2 night KP, I suggest 4 nominated saves.
See some napkin math below which might be wrong, but lets see if I can still remember combinatronics.
1 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 1 town save, so this is basically any outcome except 3 aliens in the 3 nominations. This is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% Laser lives through the night. I can accept a 1.1% loss in first night if the benefit is that we get to not waste additional bunker saves.
2 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 2 town saves. This gets a bit harder so please flame me loudly if there is an error in the math so we can try and fix it before we nominate saves (assuming I can get laser and town to buy into my plan).
With 4 nominations, there are 5 outcomes with the following distribution:

4 aliens: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 = 24/24,024 = 0.1% (we lose first night with no saves on Nutella)

3 aliens, 1 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 10/11 x 4 combos = 960/24,024 = 4 % (we lose first night with 1 saves on Nutella)

2 aliens, 2 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 10/12 x 9/11 x 6 combos = 6,480/24,024 = 27% (we land 2 saves on
Nutella)

1 alien, 3 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 4/11 x 4 combos = 11,520/24,024 = 48% (we land 3 saves on Nutella)

4 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 7/11 = 5,040 /24,024 = 21% (we land 4 saves on Nutella)

I am okay with 4.1% loss in first night.

My current reads/leanings. Cant necessarily justify them all, because its not always rational or justifiable. Its just how their posts make my gut feel.

Alison – hard town. Thinks Epignosis is alien, and agree re full list of saves being anti town.

Bimbo – no posts.

Carotenoid – light alien read for the short intro. Good to know Mac would agree.

Dragomir – null to light town.

Dyslexicon – null to alien for no solve in 3 posts. “game” doesn’t count and I believe is just to appear non-coaster.

Dunya – started off towny, but then slips into hard alien with the later posts. Implied statement that Carotenoid is town “Can't wait to see your super shiny townies self! ”, and the hard tunnel onto LC at the start of day 0. Might be a meta thing I just have no idea but could also just be distancing. Then claims laser will be fine because Dunya/Epi will be using their save onto the laser. “2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl”. This would be fine if they were both exactly town, but how does anyone else know they are both town? We don’t. “We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied” – this is also super alien. We should mix the saves into public and private so the aliens do not have perfect info on saves. Dunya in later posts moves back into town. My head hurts.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

Long Con – Alien. Cant believe they called themselves a bunkerman instead of a bunker person. Consider myself triggered. Gets slightly town for thinking that having no saves left day 5 onward is bad but not that much. “We have to assume the aliens will try to kill nutella every night. We will non-randomly arrange protects to ensure, and insure, that she has multiple layers of protection each night. We will do this in a way that eliminates the possibility of unfortuitously picking all aliens to protect her.” Seems towny but to eliminate the possibility of picking all aliens, we need to use a LOT of bunker saves every even night. Also thinks aliens will be trying to kill the laser every night. I hard disagree and think aliens will leave the laser alone all game since its way easier to kill all the bunkers and win that way. On a meta read without ever having played with them, I simply don’t believe someone with 13k posts would think the aliens would be trying to kill the laser every night.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME – light town for thinking a protection scheme can/should exist. Does not want rng factors into the saves onto Nutella and prefers a set scheme TBC. The arguments with tutu re “trolling” seems town on town to me.

Nutella – LASER

Protocultures – the towniest town that ever towned in the history of townhood

Rej – thinks Dunya, Alison and Tutuu are town GTH. No idea what GTH means but I kinda like their town circle.

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

TonyStarkPrime – Null to alien. The strategy of 4 most scummy players onto Laser is bad since if we get 3+ aliens, we insta lose. I much prefer a random 4 than we pick the 4 scummiest, especially since aliens will then try to look scummy intentionally.

Tutuu - Medium town. Wants to know if laser gets to shoot Day 0. Wants town to mass rng saves onto the laser and thinks its okay to lose a non-zero percentage on first night to increase overall town win percentage by not blowing all the bunker saves the first 4 days. I agree with this concept. Tutu thinks Dunya is light town and LongCon is town. I think its weird that Tutuu reads LongCon as town for subjectively incorrect logic, but it seems genuine.

The effort shown here, and in their many other posts, along with a solid progression on their reads puts proto as very likely town. I think the best look of all is this first post, where I would think an over eager, new to forum mafia wolf, would just think about impressing with their mechanics/math and forget to actually give proper reads but proto went above and beyond.

Horseshit.

"along with a solid progression"

There's no progression. This is one post. Soneji talks about nothing in it.

That said I consider this to be proto's favor, but I would want nutella to consider the teammate potential here. Frankly I think Soneji is kissing ass.

i think i agree with the take here on soneji/proto. that soneji post looks more like scum tmi-ing and buddying up to town. it seems too gushing to be s/s

also agree that dunya could be scum trying to coax soneji into the thread. it doesn’t have to be but it’s plausible

disagree on tutuu. think she’s just town

and obviously i agree that rej can get blasted

[MacDougall]

I will add I feel extremely positive that Hally is town. She's like a shining beacon of town spark.

[MacDougall]

[mention]Hally[/mention] have you looked at Dyslexicon?

[Long Con]

I will add I feel extremely positive that Hally is town. She's like a shining beacon of town spark.

Yes.

[Long Con]

Between Epignosis/Dunya/Dyslexicon there is absolutely at least one mafia and maybe literally only one.

I still like Dizzy as the bad apple. Dizzy and proto, good laser targets.

[MacDougall]

I will add I feel extremely positive that Hally is town. She's like a shining beacon of town spark.

Yes.

Indeed

[Hally]

If you have meta that says she specifically doesn’t go this hard as scum I can work with that

If it’s a broad scum in general don’t go this hard read that’s uh

Something I fundamentally disagree with

i don’t have meta on allison no. but fair point. scum can go hard too. idk im conflicted on allison

[MacDougall]

I've seen Nutella play popcorn and this is just big popcorn. She'll be fine.

This post aged well

[MacDougall]

If you have meta that says she specifically doesn’t go this hard as scum I can work with that

If it’s a broad scum in general don’t go this hard read that’s uh

Something I fundamentally disagree with

i don’t have meta on allison no. but fair point. scum can go hard too. idk im conflicted on allison

Little background. I got invited to the flow discord so they could insult me a lot and found Alison there who seemed like a reasonable human who was desperate to just play mafia so I befriended her and invited her to TS so she could get her mafia on. So she at the very least loves to play. She's not just some blow in who kicks the can around.

[Long Con]

If you have meta that says she specifically doesn’t go this hard as scum I can work with that

If it’s a broad scum in general don’t go this hard read that’s uh

Something I fundamentally disagree with

i don’t have meta on allison no. but fair point. scum can go hard too. idk im conflicted on allison

I don't see any reason why the sudden thrust of long-post-research isn't a reaction to some reasonable accusations against her.

[nutella]

I've seen Nutella play popcorn and this is just big popcorn. She'll be fine.

This post aged well

I think rabbit's been watching I hope he's proud tbh

[MacDougall]

I've seen Nutella play popcorn and this is just big popcorn. She'll be fine.

This post aged well

I think rabbit's been watching I hope he's proud tbh

Let's keep doing that thing where you give me your shortlists and I tell you which one to shoot. Seems to be working well so far.

[Long Con]

I've seen Nutella play popcorn and this is just big popcorn. She'll be fine.

This post aged well

I think rabbit's been watching I hope he's proud tbh

Let's keep doing that thing where you give me your shortlists and I tell you which one to shoot. Seems to be working well so far.

Did you tell her to shoot Soneji?

[Carotenoid]

Hmm Carot do you have a read on Dunya?

not really

Really? Hmmm. Do you have any strong reads one way or the other?

I think TonyStarkPrime tutuu NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME are town.
Still think Alison is alien and I want to sort Rej / Long Con / protocultures / you / maybe dunya when I'll have slept because that makes too many aliens