Space Invaders [END]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

if he flips town i think we lose

He didn’t but like...this is a weird thing to say

[nutella]

Phew

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Also gj nutella I’m begrudgingly less and less salty about not being able to explode things

[protocultures]

Pretty sure this clears Mac as town.

[protocultures]

Unless he is a known busser on forum

[Long Con]

OH SNAP! This is getting very impressive, and f off if you call me a bootlicker, I didn't like that.

[Long Con]

if he flips town i think we lose

I don't think nutella missing just once is Game Over.

[nutella]

Let's say.... protections from [mention]Alison[/mention] [mention]Dyslexicon[/mention] [mention]protocultures[/mention] and [mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. [mention]Epignosis[/mention] and [mention]tutuu[/mention], no need to use yours up, thank you.

[protocultures]

I feel like we have near auto because aliens only have 1kp forever now and there should be other people cleared. I want to say Tony is also cleared but not 100% sure if they were hard scumreading rej early on.

[nutella]

Is that silly should I choose three? Idk is there like better math on this or something

[MacDougall]

I fail to see how this game can be lost from here.

[nutella]

I feel like we have near auto because aliens only have 1kp forever now and there should be other people cleared. I want to say Tony is also cleared but not 100% sure if they were hard scumreading rej early on.

I believe they still have 2 kp tonight?

[nutella]

Maybe I shouldn't make that many people use saves though? I don't know

[MacDougall]

I feel like we have near auto because aliens only have 1kp forever now and there should be other people cleared. I want to say Tony is also cleared but not 100% sure if they were hard scumreading rej early on.

I believe they still have 2 kp tonight?

Oh so they do. Maybe not quite time to meme yet.

[Epignosis]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

Noted.

[nutella]

I think maybe a few bunkers should use saves on townreads tonight. Thinking about this more, if we obviously guarantee that I'm saved, aliens will just kill two other townies easily. I think we have the room to use extra saves here and it would be great if we don't lose 2 people at night. So maybe we should assign some people to use saves (but not say on whom)?

[Carotenoid]

On even nights, if there are 2 or more aliens alive, the faction can perform up to 2 kills. If both kills aim for the same target, they will only survive if being protected by at least 2 Bunkers. If they aim for different targets, a single Bunker may stop each kill.

So yeah still 2 shots

For 3 persons the maths is 2/11*1/10*9/9 --> 1,8% chance of loosing if random

[protocultures]

Maybe I shouldn't make that many people use saves though? I don't know

Can I reply in the morning? Kinda hard to do it on phone

[nutella]

alright. [mention]Alison[/mention] I'm removing you from the pool to save me, feel free to save someone else instead.


I really think we have few enough nights left that it'd honestly be fine for everyone to save someone tonight lol. Maybe we even assign them all out loud and it could work out that actually nobody could die?? Hmmm


Seriously I'm not mathing this out so if what I'm saying is bullshit lmk

[nutella]

Three people save me: dizzy, proto, tony
That leaves eight other people, if we assume everyone on me is town then there are six more saves, if every remaining townie protects we could have a shot at a deathless night, am I crazy? Obviously don't know what the percentage is and the aliens could still shoot one of the remaining ppl but this feels good tbh

[Carotenoid]

I think it's better to say self-save if you feel the need to. I don't know how to explain that but like I find that people often just "feel" if they'll get nk more than who specifically will be

[protocultures]

On even nights, if there are 2 or more aliens alive, the faction can perform up to 2 kills. If both kills aim for the same target, they will only survive if being protected by at least 2 Bunkers. If they aim for different targets, a single Bunker may stop each kill.

So yeah still 2 shots

For 3 persons the maths is 2/11*1/10*9/9 --> 1,8% chance of loosing if random

3 combos?

Haven't done the math for any of it

[protocultures]

Need to work backwards from endgame.

Blowing a bunch of bunkersaves takes away the advantage of hitting aliens back to back. I had totally thought thie game was 2kp till 2. Agree celebrations too early

[Carotenoid]

On even nights, if there are 2 or more aliens alive, the faction can perform up to 2 kills. If both kills aim for the same target, they will only survive if being protected by at least 2 Bunkers. If they aim for different targets, a single Bunker may stop each kill.

So yeah still 2 shots

For 3 persons the maths is 2/11*1/10*9/9 --> 1,8% chance of loosing if random

3 combos?

Haven't done the math for any of it

What do you mean 3 combos?

ftr I'm having light fever right now so I might have done a massive math fail sorry if it's the case
(will double check tomorrow)

[protocultures]

Your calc looks like a permutation for AAT. But ATA and TAA also all result in not enough saves on Nutella. That's what I mean by 3 combos cos from the numbers it looks like 18/990 which I eyeball to be 1.8% but I dont trust math I did in bed on mobile.

Will check in the morning

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I strongly recommend four saves on nutella tonight, no saves on anyone else.

[Carotenoid]

Your calc looks like a permutation for AAT. But ATA and TAA also all result in not enough saves on Nutella. That's what I mean by 3 combos cos from the numbers it looks like 18/990 which I eyeball to be 1.8% but I dont trust math I did in bed on mobile.

Will check in the morning

Oh but it's commutative (not sure if that's the word in English?) so it doesn't really matter. Also thanks for double-checking!

[protocultures]

alright. @Alison I'm removing you from the pool to save me, feel free to save someone else instead.


I really think we have few enough nights left that it'd honestly be fine for everyone to save someone tonight lol. Maybe we even assign them all out loud and it could work out that actually nobody could die?? Hmmm


Seriously I'm not mathing this out so if what I'm saying is bullshit lmk

Impossible to save everyone.

You would be putting 4 players into guaranteed death assuming 4 saves on you (which is what I think you need). Of those 4, 2 would remain alive who you could assign high mafia equity. The cost is an additional 5 bunker saves.

That's almost 2 laser shots.

I still agree with Nanook that never worth to save anyone not Nutella when there are this many players still in the game.

Potential errors in my model - feel free to poke holes etc

[protocultures]

Your calc looks like a permutation for AAT. But ATA and TAA also all result in not enough saves on Nutella. That's what I mean by 3 combos cos from the numbers it looks like 18/990 which I eyeball to be 1.8% but I dont trust math I did in bed on mobile.

Will check in the morning

Oh but it's commutative (not sure if that's the word in English?) so it doesn't really matter. Also thanks for double-checking!

Pretty sure it's 5.4% of insta lose on a rng3 basis.

No need to take that risk when we are winning so hard imo.

[Carotenoid]

tbh I kinda don't wanna overthink the mechanics and just do the only protect nutella thing

My only issue with that is I feel that proto is gonna get shot and I wanna keep him

[protocultures]

I'm not worth the saves. Nobody is worth the saves unless Nutella gives a pool of people she is never shooting all game.

I still think some people might be able to get cleared off the flip on Rej. Like Hally if they were still alive. I think they had Rej and Soneji as partners but memory might be wrong.

[Long Con]

Let's say.... protections from @Alison @Dyslexicon @protocultures and @TonyStarkPrime


Since there are only two aliens left that should guarantee I'm okay. @Epignosis and @tutuu, no need to use yours up, thank you.

I believe that two shots is the max that any number of Aliens could have done on an even night.

alright. @Alison I'm removing you from the pool to save me, feel free to save someone else instead.


I really think we have few enough nights left that it'd honestly be fine for everyone to save someone tonight lol. Maybe we even assign them all out loud and it could work out that actually nobody could die?? Hmmm


Seriously I'm not mathing this out so if what I'm saying is bullshit lmk

Impossible to save everyone.

You would be putting 4 players into guaranteed death assuming 4 saves on you (which is what I think you need). Of those 4, 2 would remain alive who you could assign high mafia equity. The cost is an additional 5 bunker saves.

That's almost 2 laser shots.

I still agree with Nanook that never worth to save anyone not Nutella when there are this many players still in the game.

Potential errors in my model - feel free to poke holes etc

If four people use their bunker protects to save themselves, then that is equal to one Alien kill of a full Bunker, with regards to the number of protections left for nutella. Then if the Aliens get a kill, that's more shots lost. Doesn't seem like much right now, but in two days, if nutella misses the next two laser shots, we could end up with people running low. Then we'll have to rely on bluffing? Not ideal.

When will the Aliens start to assume we're bluffing about the level of protection on nutella? Will they ever risk a shot on her? What if their strategy is to ignore nutella and win the old-fashioned way? Having the first two shots going off Ripley-style really puts a crimp in any plan like that.

If no one protects themselves, we will lose two bunkers tonight. If people protect themselves, we really could end up losing two bunkers anyway.

[Epignosis]

I'm not worth the saves. Nobody is worth the saves unless Nutella gives a pool of people she is never shooting all game.

I still think some people might be able to get cleared off the flip on Rej. Like Hally if they were still alive. I think they had Rej and Soneji as partners but memory might be wrong.

Uh, that was me.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p618588

Spoiler: show

nutella said it before me though.

[Long Con]

I'm not worth the saves. Nobody is worth the saves unless Nutella gives a pool of people she is never shooting all game.

I still think some people might be able to get cleared off the flip on Rej. Like Hally if they were still alive. I think they had Rej and Soneji as partners but memory might be wrong.

Uh, that was me.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p618588

Spoiler: show

nutella said it before me though.

Aw, I can't stay mad at you, bro!

[Epignosis]

Didn't even know you were mad at me. Guess I'll get there eventually.

Today sucked ass for non-mafia related reasons (nothing major- just a cascade of moderate inconveniences that at the end of the day looked like something a writer from a 90s sitcom came up with).

[Epignosis]

God, I'm stuck in Thursday afternoon. It's Friday evening here.

Oh well. Time to make the doughnuts.

dunya, I mentioned above a bit that I had basically the whole game as null or town. Caro is one of the players I think is suspicious, based on what I raised above about her progression on me. I might have better/firmer scumreads for you after I re-eval but as it stands my PoE is something like [Caro, LC, Rej] or something. Basically just Caro + two people I can't read. Everyone says Rej is scummy but frankly my eyes glaze over so hard when I read the stuff he writes I can't form an independent opinion on him so.

can you take the player list and gun to your head, assign each player as either town or scum?

its a neat exercise where we decide GTH without lots of facts and evidence to back up our reads, what our intuition says.

i love it tbh

This is very far from my usual style but, gun to my head: LC scum, Caro scum, Rej town out of that PoE. For some reason I want to say Dizzy scum even though their mindmeld with me makes me townread them and my feeling towards them is town in general. I don't know why. Everyone else is town probably.

Don't ask me to justify any of this, it's pure guesswork. :P

Qualifier here.

"This is very far from my usual style but"

Note the very and the formula of the phrase. Already it's a hedge.

"Rej town out of that PoE"

I get this is in response to a "GTH" prod, but I don't care. The "Don't ask me to justify any of this, it's pure guesswork. :P" creates a hedge sandwich. These are ideas delivered while begging to escape scrutiny or accountability. I don't think a civilian who has nothing to worry about as long as nutella trusts him or her has any need to give a shit about what anybody else thinks. This looks like shits are given. This looks like a Rej teammate.

I'm posting this. I'll be back with the weather at 11.

[Epignosis]

Rej is actually a null read for me, but dunya asked me to read people gun to head so I just blurted out the first word that comes to mind (town or scum) when I think of their name, without thinking too hard about it. Like I said, don't ask me to justify any of those reads.

Just in case anybody is really concerned about that Rej opinion, here's a quick followup (buttressed by an adverb "actually") that essentially tells us that Alison doesn't want anybody to take it seriously.

This isn't trying to figure Rej out. This is "Shit, I have to say something about Rej."

[nutella]

Yeah that doesn't look great for her.

[Epignosis]

Damn, that came five minutes later too.

[Epignosis]

My next post might be a little long, so if anybody has to go pee...

[Epignosis]

I'm at that giant ass proto post on page 28.

I'm going to do two things with this just for fun.

First, I'm going to count how many times "Epi" appears in it.

I pasted it all into Word so I didn't get Topic Review posts or my own username at the top.

If you want to guess, feel free. The number is in the spoiler:

Spoiler: show

19 goddamn instances of "Epi" in a single post judging others according to a "suspect" who has not even had his alignment revealed.

Wild.

The second thing I want to do is look at a few specific items contained therein.

Hally – lock town atm and im okay losing to them if they are an alien. Got to get burned at least once to learn and cant just be paranoid all game because someone said your scum game is amazeballs. Being universally townread when you also subjectively townread them should give you some confidence that the read is correct.

Hally was murdered Night 1.

If Hally is "locktown," why the hell didn't protocultures protect this individual from death?

It's over the top, histrionic praise that means nothing if you don't back it up.

This is horseshit.

Alison – hard town after shoving the paranoid down re meta dive. Im already deep into your pocket, you can stop calling me town now. I might be guilt of the double “L” issue. Sometimes I will forget, sometimes my phone does weird stuff with spelling, but I will try. Alison probing LC is also towny imo.

I don't understand most of this.

I do understand the first two words after the name.

And at this juncture I hope nutella blasts one of these two.

Lon Con – happy they are posting more, but wish they would post even more than they have. Were my number 2 alien due to not participating that much/solving/contributing to help town. Don’t want them in POE as I feel that can develop a read on them if they continue to post. Is open to Epi being an alien and attempted to explain to me why Epi is being townread by the majority of the game for things I think are clear anti wincon for town. Strictly speaking NAI as well, but I want to encourage more engagement with them.

Rej – kinda null on them, they don’t post that much which makes it hard to remember things. Hopefully they post more so I can develop a read.

I want to contrast these two opinions.

Long Con was the #2 alien due to an apparent lack of posts.

Even when LC posts more, it isn't enough.

Rej managed about half the posts LC did, and Rej is granted a "kinda null on them."

Soneji had what, nine posts? Got "very very light town."

Either protoculture's colorwheel is broken or his calculator needs to be given some cement 80085.

Dyslexicon – has stopped memeing and is giving content which I like. No strong opinion yet, but I probably don’t want them in POE for day 2. Unlikely to be aliens with Hally for letting new people know Hally has a scary scum game. Quite like most of their list here http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p618094
Wish they didn’t hard defend Epi for being objectively anti town, but giving them a towny mindset which could be faked. Potential partner with Epi.

You're running out of potential partners for me.

Nanook – seems hard town for NOT wanting saves to be expended except on Nutella. I hard agree with this from a mechanics perspective at least until the number of players reduces a bit. Its simply too hard to expend a save, and try to save a maximum of 4 bunker shots when you are saving into 12 candidates. It can’t be correct. I don’t think an alien ever pushes this agenda because its anti wincon. Also, are you Clem? “Smart townies make dumb reads literally all the time” – yes, but should they be townread for doing it or scumread?

I have always said I'm protecting nutella (unless she asks me not to do that).

Yet I'm only telling people what I'm doing. Nanook is telling other people what they should do and you're cool with that. Okay.

For the record, if I'm an alien, I want all the protections on one target and concentrated so I can pick off the bunkers and make them waste their chances.

But you're not a civilian anyway, so I don't care about your "math."

Probably Common Core math anyway.

I'm skipping the rest. I'm bored with this post. I'll end here:

Epi – thinks I am an alien, still has not given any evidence or logic behind the allegation.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 68#p617568

"Still has not given any evidence or logic behind the allegation" and to PROVE THIS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

I announced that I was going to watch TV with my wife.

Well now let's see:

Spoiler: show

Ok, lemme do some defence before I work through the new posts that happened overnight.

I dont think there is anything weird about giving a null to very very light town read to someone with one post who said they looked into optimal stratgies for this setup. If you are town, this seems a reasonable thing to do and if you are alien, why would you tell anyone you are looking into strat. Thats where my logic was at. It was a null to very very light town. I wouldnt read too much into it.

I talked about "strat" (I own a Strat by the way ). Yet to you I'm a "hard alien." Nah.

My second take that they are null and hoping they post more or get mod killed is also normal to me. It is entirely consistent with a null read where the person had at the time made one post.

Fine.

EoD - I am not so much defending Soneji as saying there were better shots imo. I was kind of shocked they flipped alien, but whatever.

People are saying my EoD was too wifom. I was just responding to Nutellas request to give our input knowing that they were likely to shoot Soneji.

I don't object to this. Mistakes happen.

Consider this. prior to my posts going into EoD, I was almost universally townread. if I am alien and know Soneji is the likely shot with flips on, I do not make these posts. Ever.

Some of you will say "thats wifom again".

Consider this. Would I prefer to be almost universally townread in a setup where its 2KP until 2, and let Soneji die quietly OR make a deflection post and put myself in the mix for day 2 lasering because because can say "you are alien using wifom". Thats the real choice I would have to make as an alien, and thats the choice you need to decide whether I made. The alternative is that I am town, thought Soneji was not the best shot for the day, and pushed my view on the better shot.

Consider this: Your treatment of me has been antithetical to figuring me out. From my perspective, you don't care to figure me out, which means you are bad. It's really that simple. That I got "hard alien" despite talking mechanics and Soneji got "very very light town" for one post looks like you really don't give a damn about my alignment.

My interaction/proposals for Epi still gained some info on the gamestate since Epi and I both are kind of okay with getting shot as long as the other gets shot next day. Strictly speaking this is not a hard difference check but rather makes it unlikely we are both aliens together. Lemme know people's thoughtson that. If you say THAT is also wifom, then basically posting anything is wifom and you have pre-determined I am an alien.

I'm not okay with getting shot as long as you are. I didn't say that. You said that.

I think your team informed you that I would likely be protected and you need nutella to shoot me first to get this annoying asshole Skeletor out of your hair. Then you can die happy knowing you took one for the team.

I still townread carotenoid for finding the issue with the mixed save strat. I townread them slightly independent from that based on their posts.

Hally seems pretty damn town to me.

Okay.

Epi immeadiately locking in a save for Nutella at the start of N1 when we had done math on 3 rng saves is extremely scummy. It just makes it likely for people to waste bunker saves since we cannot use their save in the rng for the results to work out. I will say that hitting an alien in the first day makes the math much more favourable to town since its now 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 for us to rng 3 aliens exactly which is 6/1,716 which is 0.35%. We still cant use Epi's save to get this outcome because they self selected. Epi knows this which is why its was extremely scummy to lock in a save before Nutella nominated the savers. People wanting to apply more than 3 saves I think are aliens, since it wastes bunker shots, but maybe they hadnt done the math. The math has been done above for you. There are 13 non Nutella players left. There is one combo of hitting all three aliens back to back. Thats 0.35%. If people still want to push for a night protection scheme that uses any more than 3 saves in Nutella, (such as bottom 3 POE plus one for example), I just think you are really really bad at math. We already have to use 4 since Epi locked in a save.

nutella needs to be unprotected and shot one time and I lose.

There's all the math I need.

One.

I also think doing isos on Soneji post flip to scumhunt/clear people is pointless to bad in a game where aliens have full chat knowing there are flips. Again, another thing that Epi has done. Basically a lot of people are townreading Epi and I cant see it. if its based purely on meta and not on their posts for this game, can people let me know who they are so i can silo their read on epi off from my read on them.

I should be shot because I'm trying to figure out who Soneji's mafia teammates are by...examining Soneji's posts? How is this any different from any other Mafia setup?

Spoiler: show

idk if im convinced by that case. i agree that proto’s liiiiiiight townread of soneji for his first post wasnt deserved but idk that it strikes me as s/s. and dropping soneji to null after some time had passed and soneji hadnt posted again is reasonable given the town lean was very slight to begin with. the stuff right at EoD where he was like “dont shoot soneji shoot epi and if soneji is maf shoot me” is maybe negative against him because it seems almost intentionally wifomy. but it seems silly to go for that when there was really no point and it was more likely to make him look bad than anything. im not sure what he would think hed gain there

I think it's a load of bollocks.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

No effort made whatsoever here. But I am for certain a "hard alien."

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

This is qualified so many times over I could write a politician's speech with it.

"very very"

Not one "very" will do. Two are needed. We need to be sure we understand that protocultures' stance on Soneji is not to be taken seriously.

"light town"

Again, we need that adjective in there to ensure that people are clear this isn't one to take to the bank.

"for having looked into strategies"

I looked into strategies. I discussed and debated them. I got no such credit for this. Instead, I'm judged guilty due to "vibes." Soneji had maybe, what, half a post at the time?

"as could have done it for either alignment."

Just in case we aren't clear that protocultures isn't happy with calling Soneji good, we have this additional (and awkward) phrase to further hedge from the stance taken.

This is a teammate, folks.

[Carotenoid]

Alright I have finally catch up. I'm getting tired so I'm just gonna toss a few thoughts:

* I think Epignosis is town. I disliked their D0-D1 approach, but when they started to do some scum-hunting with the Soneji's posts analysis I felt like a lot of things overlapped with the iso I did from the "other side" and I think they were the first to pair and push Soneji-Rej as w/w.

* So far I townread NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME for like tone/attitude and mechanic push that I believe to be right. I still do and feel good about this townread but *if* there's a deepwolf, this is the slot that comes to my mind. With two aliens down I don't find this super likely so yeah, town.

* Dyslexicon felt towny and Hally town townreading him makes me wanna lock it

* protocultures has become my strongest townread, and by a good margin

* I think MacDougall can be completely cleared from Rej flip. --> I still wanna do some ISO tomorrow to make sure because it's only based on memories for the moment

* dunya is probably the biggest ? for me right now. My opinion on her have been going back and forth. I see in my D0/D1 notes that she has hmmmmmmm to Rej but I don't remember what it means. I need to take better notes in the future lol. --> I wanna ISO check this tommorow as well

* Overall I dislike how Alison went from having like exactly 3 scumreads to townreading everyone to being nitpicky to shade people. That's the global vibe I get.

* I have no idea where Long Con stands. It's like I read their post and then I forget them.

* Oh wow this became an accidental messy read list. The only ones I haven't mentioned are tutuu and TonyStarkPrime. I still think they're town.

My PoE looks like this (from less alien to aliener):

dunya
Long Con
Alison

[Epignosis]

* protocultures has become my strongest townread, and by a good margin

I needs to hear more about this one.

[Carotenoid]

Well I don't want to offend you but my initial reaction to your posting is like exactly the same to his reaction. I just decided to not do anything and see how it goes since nutella and I think dunya(?) were like really confident you are town. At some other time I can see myself having the same tunnel. Also, reading up I had a lot of "mindmeld" moment with protocultures and I feel that his direction/line of thinking has been really townie.

[Epignosis]

Dont understand. I wanted you to find examples of your allegation against mac and vice versa.

My allegation against MacDougall is that he is an Aussie hypocrite, nothing more.

My comments re "light light town" on Soneji have been discussed already. Do you have a new angle on it?

I'll let you know.

so basically throwing scum with no specific reference in mind. Not one.

This may be within your town meta, but stuff like this is why I scumread you.

I have no idea what you just said to me in that first line.

As for the second, luckily you didn't get the Super Soaker 9000.

When Mac says about you that "After having looked at it again, that stuff is rather meh Tbh a lot of Epi's reads in this game have been him arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things. Quite a few times he's taken a firm stance on someone and my immediate response was "really guy"? His response post flip was a bit weird too. He's well within his mafia range."

And you say "Something something pot kettle", I expected you to have exmaples of Mac arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things which maked you go "really?". Or at least one.

By making the comment "Something something pot kettle" with no evidence to support it, I take this as you throwing random scum with no backup, which I interpret as anti town behaviour.

let me know if I am still unclear.

Anybody who knows Mac needs no evidence.

It wasn't an accusation. It was "You do the same shit, bucko. Piss off."

Mac and I are cool.

You wanted to turn it into something.

Oops.

[Epignosis]

what if i protect myself tonight?

never protect yourself at night.

There is 1 KP, which is unlikely to go onto Nutella.

if you save YOURSELF, you spend 1 bunker shot, with a maximum result of saving your 3 remaining bunkershots.

Staying alive with no bunkershots have no value to town. Your only value to town is in your bunker shots.

There are 10 bunkers remaining for Aliens to shoot into.

You need to correct 1 in 10 times for your save to be +EV. You onyl get a 3 to 1 reward ratio. Its -EV to save yourself.

Multiple this by other bunkers trying to save themselves, its massively beneficial for aliens if all bunkers save themselves in the night. It gets them closer to auto by being able to kill Nutella because bunkers dont have saves anymore.

This is why Nanook is saying please dont save anyone other than Nutella. I feel this argument drops off as we get to fewer and fewer players and not exactly sure when, but at thios game state I am like 99% sure saving anyone except nutella is bad.

You made a huge case during Night 1 to keep Hally from self-protecting.

Every failed kill is a failed kill against the civilian faction.

I want to find this post...here we are:

Epi immeadiately locking in a save for Nutella at the start of N1 when we had done math on 3 rng saves is extremely scummy. It just makes it likely for people to waste bunker saves since we cannot use their save in the rng for the results to work out. I will say that hitting an alien in the first day makes the math much more favourable to town since its now 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 for us to rng 3 aliens exactly which is 6/1,716 which is 0.35%. We still cant use Epi's save to get this outcome because they self selected. Epi knows this which is why its was extremely scummy to lock in a save before Nutella nominated the savers. People wanting to apply more than 3 saves I think are aliens, since it wastes bunker shots, but maybe they hadnt done the math. The math has been done above for you. There are 13 non Nutella players left. There is one combo of hitting all three aliens back to back. Thats 0.35%. If people still want to push for a night protection scheme that uses any more than 3 saves in Nutella, (such as bottom 3 POE plus one for example), I just think you are really really bad at math. We already have to use 4 since Epi locked in a save.

Which the fuck is it? Do I save nutella or do I not, professor?

You just told Hally, your biggest "townread" to refrain from refusing to die. Presumably Hally had four protections. By dying, Hally has zero.

Now how many protections are left with Hally dead?

If Hally had self-protected, how many would be left?

[Epignosis]

I mean, if nutella has pre-determined their next day shot, that target could save in the night if they want, but thats asking a lot from Nutella since they lose a whole extra 24 hours of game time to make a read.

I don't understand this.

[Epignosis]

After having looked at it again, that stuff is rather meh Tbh a lot of Epi's reads in this game have been him arriving to firm conclusions off pretty random things. Quite a few times he's taken a firm stance on someone and my immediate response was "really guy"? His response post flip was a bit weird too. He's well within his mafia range.

This. This right here.

This is the smoking gun example of Epi arrving at a firm conclusion off pretty random things.

You'll see a smoking gun all right.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Let the aliens kill two bunkers tonight if they want to, I honestly do not care. It narrows the POE.

[Epignosis]

Smart kill. Wish someone had looked out for Hally.

Ooh the shade

Eh?

You weren't trolling proto here? Ok.

I get the joke now.