Space Invaders [END]

#4301

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:07 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:58 pm who shoots nutella day 2
You

I so obviously do not

#4302

can you hand out your strat now so we can know your plan is legit/not legit post flip?

#4303

sure. everyone left has two protects left but epi?

#4304

epi - protect nutella
proto - protects randomly between alison and nutella
alison - protects randomly between proto and nutella

nutella

this plan gives town 50 percent odds at worst assuming i die today and the scum team is carot / Mac

#4305

or I guess if everyone has self protects left it doesn't even have to be in between proto Alison

#4306

wait that means theoretically you don't have to be right about the scum team

#4307

okay, so everyone in the game flips between self protecting and protecting nutella. this means aliens can shoot nutella and win exactly half the time as well. With weighted averages you can probably get this to something a little higher, lemme pull out the distribution and figure it out.

#4308

oh wait you can make it so you fail on night 6 but have a straight wifom shot at night 7

#4309

but epi has to die

#4310

I'm just waiting for proto to give me the updated counts on how many protects everyone has

#4311

also I've gotta go. basically, here's what looks right.

everyone with two saves flips a coin. On heads, they protect nutella. On tails, they self protect.

Epi flips two coins. On two heads, he self protects. Else, he protects nutella.

This allows for wins with perfect shots about 75 percent of the time regardless of alien strategy, which is the absolute maximum a plan like this can get.

#4312

this plan is also as fps proof as I can make it. please don't try anything except Proto I guess I trust Proto.

Proto can confirm this works I hope because I hope it works

#4313

there are alternatives that involve a lot of wifom but I think those boil down to 50/50.

#4314

fwiw a basic matrix says that Nutella should shoot mac but with the amount of people convinced it's me/alison that might not go over well as advice

#4315

read my iso and glean my towniness if you think about shooting me

#4316

Morning buttheads

#4317

Or should I say morning TSP yeesh

#4318

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:18 pm I'm just waiting for proto to give me the updated counts on how many protects everyone has

intentionally not giving counts. Need to be able to credibly bluff the aliens

#4319

Everyone is acting like scum except Carot

#4320

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:01 pm @Epignosis what is the most compelling reason to believe Carotenoid is town?

I don't have one. It's a conglomeration of things for me.

1. At first I was annoyed that Carotenoid used a protection on me, but Long Con did it, protocultures also claimed to do it, and there have been failed kills. I don't think mafia is trying to shoot you, because that would be sub-optimal (though I have seen plenty of sub-optimal play from mafia factions in my time).

2. Carotenoid's attitude toward the decision to save me comes across as carefree and matter-of-fact; contrast this to Alison's insistence that Carotenoid intentionally blew a kill so she could say she protected me, which sounds angry and unhappy rather than investigative.

3. This:

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:20 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:00 pm Ok so

Alison save Mac

Mac save TSP

TSP save Carotenoid

Carotenoid save Proto

Proto save Epi

Epi save Nutella

@nutella please confirm this for all

If this plan is bad, now is a great time to start saying something...
Yes, please do what it says in the quote everyone

@Alison
@MacDougall
@TonyStarkPrime
@Carotenoid
@Epignosis

The mafia here has to know that I'm protecting you (I said I would and did).

Alison is the only known unprotected individual in this list.

The mafia cannot kill anyone else without outing a team member.

The only reason for the aliens not to kill Alison is to make nutella do it, but that comes at the cost of silencing an aggressive civilian sooner rather than later.

4. Now that I've read it, this:

protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:29 pm re Carotenoid, I have found some mistakes in math/mech (1.8% example and I saved Epi, Epi and Carotenoid are cleared town). Both are advantageous mistakes to make as mafia. I decided to give them the benefit of doubt because I dont know for sure that Carotenoid is super math/mech person so dont assume they cant make mistakes. I mean, I made a math/mech error on day 0. Carotenoid pointed it out. I found that towny.

Their manuiscript notes on their mech solve. Its like super try hard to do as mafia. Its not just notes. The paper is folded and creased. It looks genuinely like it was in a pocket all day. It isnt neat. It doesnt look like it was ever intended for others to see. I accept the english over french in the notes. The other intepretation is they did the solve as mafia and used it as evidence of town - which would be pretty amusing. I cant follow the notes so this could very well be the case.

Like, I think the team is TSP/Mac probably.

That didn't even occur to me.

And that observation drives me to believe even more that Sherlockcultures is a good egg.

#4321

Hi I'm back
bzzzzzz pew pew time coming soon

#4322

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #4323

glgl me

#4324

#4325

aaaaaaaah it's happening

#4326

Social Experiment

Psychologists would have a field day trying to study what happened in this war.

Assuming there would even be psychologists alive to do it.

Well, maybe some alien ones.

TonyStarkPrime (Bunker) was killed.

Night 6 Begins!

#4327

what
what
what
what

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #4328

well shit

i loved the gif tho carotte

#4329

i'm
AAAAAAAAAAAAH
is it proto or is it mac
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
orfjierjnferojfiwjfwe

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #4330

aight do the thing tony said

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #4331

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:59 pm i'm
AAAAAAAAAAAAH
is it proto or is it mac
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
orfjierjnferojfiwjfwe

lol

#4332

i
aaaaaaah
husofifiofewfew
let's flip a coin then

#4333

I'm thinking this game may be a prequel to this story.

It's great.

It starts with all of humanity dead though.

#4334

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:25 pm also I've gotta go. basically, here's what looks right.

everyone with two saves flips a coin. On heads, they protect nutella. On tails, they self protect.

Epi flips two coins. On two heads, he self protects. Else, he protects nutella.

This allows for wins with perfect shots about 75 percent of the time regardless of alien strategy, which is the absolute maximum a plan like this can get.

#4335

i dont know how I can prove TSP strat. I'm just going to assume its better than anything I can create if he has worked in a randomiser.

it looks fine as I also think that we do need to randomise a bit at night and we need to get a bit lucky.

#4336

Hmmmm

#4337

Mac are you an alien

#4338

#4339

Do we need to consider whether Epi is an alien here?

#4340

It feels like it.

#4341

Oof gg to the aliens for real. I dunno what else to say. It doesn't matter who it is it's impressive as fuck.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #4342

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:25 pm also I've gotta go. basically, here's what looks right.

everyone with two saves flips a coin. On heads, they protect nutella. On tails, they self protect.

Epi flips two coins. On two heads, he self protects. Else, he protects nutella.

This allows for wins with perfect shots about 75 percent of the time regardless of alien strategy, which is the absolute maximum a plan like this can get.

let's please do this

[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
[mention]protocultures[/mention]
[mention]Alison[/mention]
[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]
[mention]MacDougall[/mention]

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #4343

tsp is a math guy let his legacy be honored

#4344

I already flipped lol

#4345

can we please look at Mac?

I mean, I know I have been townshielding at least 1 alien for the majority of the game which feels bad, but I dont think its 2.

I have not been this suprised post flip since Dizzy.

The annoying thing is, if Epi is town, and TSP didnt save Nutella, I dont think we necessarily end up killing TSP.

If Epi is an alien, then TSP bought us a chance we didnt deserve, because we just lose Night 5.

Did TSP post his flowchart post flip in the end?

#4346

protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 pm can we please look at Mac?

I tried.

#4347

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:53 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:52 pm @TonyStarkPrime you have meta with Mac. Why is Mac town? I cant see it. I have tried.
I don't see it either tbh. He has the weakest argument. Carot's hard defense though is weird.

[mention]nutella[/mention]

#4348

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:07 pm it has to be carot/mac. That's it. That's the flow chart. Proto can hand out the night 6 confuse the mafia strategy if I don't make it.

here

#4349

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:07 pm it has to be carot/mac. That's it. That's the flow chart. Proto can hand out the night 6 confuse the mafia strategy if I don't make it.

I can get behind this, although literally im being swayed by a piece of paper that may be evidence of trying to work out how to kill the bunkers, and laser gifs.

A bit behind this is Mac/Alison.

Alison/Carotenoid - I dont even mind losing to this team. if this is the team, just well played.

I cannot contemplate a world with Epi.

#4350

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:24 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 pm can we please look at Mac?
I tried.

conclusion was?