Pyre Mafia [ENDGAME]

[dunya]

How am I going to sleep same time as Americans are lol

[Sloonei]

I’m unclear on why outed wolf is suddenly a solid town read, but i’ll reserve questions until I have a better sense of things.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I feel like I’m missing something but ok

Aside from her verifiable role, I’ve never seen nutella have an outburst like tonight’s after defenestration result.

Her role is meaningless as far as alignment is concerned imo

As far as the reaction I mean like

Idk it seemed kinda not great to me to be like “how could you guys kill tony who I was definitely going to hard defend but never actually did”

Like it doesn’t seem like an AI thing to me but if you say it is then ok

Have you seen a mafia role that removes townies from lynch poll and buffs up their stats?

If u have pls link me, I'd love to omguss nutella here.

I haven’t seen a town role that does it either, that’s why it’s

NAI

I don't think just cos you haven't seen it immediately makes it nai. We can make assumptions in a game of mafia and use probability.

Likelihood of her role being mafia in a non-bastard epi game = very slim

I mean uh

I don’t really see a reason that can’t be a mafia role??

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m unclear on why outed wolf is suddenly a solid town read, but i’ll reserve questions until I have a better sense of things.

Courtesy of bronana and Lissa

Basically if one or two of them are mafia I’m blaming whomever in the trio is town and otherwise just locking them town

Gotta work with someone, they seem actually interested in towncore approach, Lissa is a relatively strong independent TR, so they’re 3/6 of my never kill group lulz

[dunya]

I feel like I’m missing something but ok

Aside from her verifiable role, I’ve never seen nutella have an outburst like tonight’s after defenestration result.

Her role is meaningless as far as alignment is concerned imo

As far as the reaction I mean like

Idk it seemed kinda not great to me to be like “how could you guys kill tony who I was definitely going to hard defend but never actually did”

Like it doesn’t seem like an AI thing to me but if you say it is then ok

Have you seen a mafia role that removes townies from lynch poll and buffs up their stats?

If u have pls link me, I'd love to omguss nutella here.

I haven’t seen a town role that does it either, that’s why it’s

NAI

I don't think just cos you haven't seen it immediately makes it nai. We can make assumptions in a game of mafia and use probability.

Likelihood of her role being mafia in a non-bastard epi game = very slim

I mean uh

I don’t really see a reason that can’t be a mafia role??

She has the power to remove her team off the lynch poll every day and buff their stats?

Really?

Towns greatest weapon is the lynch. Mafia roles in an epi game would never disrupt that imo.

[dunya]

I also sheeped bronana in OW tbh lol. Experience.

[bronana]

Offer a towncore collaboration to bronana and visor and neither of them are here to take me up on it, feelssadman

Sorry I mostly use the night phase to take a break and decompress

[bronana]

OW should not be a lock townread, especially not from sheeping me

I'm not interested in pushing there for the time being but I absolutely do not have the level of confidence you guys seem to think I do.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Aside from her verifiable role, I’ve never seen nutella have an outburst like tonight’s after defenestration result.

Her role is meaningless as far as alignment is concerned imo

As far as the reaction I mean like

Idk it seemed kinda not great to me to be like “how could you guys kill tony who I was definitely going to hard defend but never actually did”

Like it doesn’t seem like an AI thing to me but if you say it is then ok

Have you seen a mafia role that removes townies from lynch poll and buffs up their stats?

If u have pls link me, I'd love to omguss nutella here.

I haven’t seen a town role that does it either, that’s why it’s

NAI

I don't think just cos you haven't seen it immediately makes it nai. We can make assumptions in a game of mafia and use probability.

Likelihood of her role being mafia in a non-bastard epi game = very slim

I mean uh

I don’t really see a reason that can’t be a mafia role??

She has the power to remove her team off the lynch poll every day and buff their stats?

Really?

Towns greatest weapon is the lynch. Mafia roles in an epi game would never disrupt that imo.

I mean uh

He has vote shenanigans that disrupt the TK in a lot of his games yeah?

And idk if he or Mac designed the role but in covid mafia (which he co-GMed) there was a scum role that made it so a town player couldn’t vote for scum.

So yeah, don’t really see why this role would be a stretch for mafia to have given Epi’s past proclivity for roles that mess with town’s ability to TK scum.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Offer a towncore collaboration to bronana and visor and neither of them are here to take me up on it, feelssadman

Sorry I mostly use the night phase to take a break and decompress

Yeah totally fair but also not conducive to making a joke

[dunya]

Let's all vote nutella next phase then! Something seems really ott and fake and manufactured, like her reaction to TSP beubg tkd

;p

[bronana]

OW should not be a lock townread, especially not from sheeping me

I'm not interested in pushing there for the time being but I absolutely do not have the level of confidence you guys seem to think I do.

Especially with tsp flipping civ

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

OW should not be a lock townread, especially not from sheeping me

I'm not interested in pushing there for the time being but I absolutely do not have the level of confidence you guys seem to think I do.

I mean uh

Have to start towncoring somewhere right

Six is already not a great number but I’m living with it given that two cop claims exist and one has a check if real, so towncore being six isn’t terrible with that in mind

I plan to spend early D5 trying to organize your trio plus cayvie into who we want to kill so we don’t have to last minute bumrush again

But yeah I think me/you/Lissa/cayvie/visor acting as a council of sorts, with moto locked town and whomever of Mac/carrote/sloonei we take as town, I think that’s a good start yeah?

[bronana]

Fair enough

[nutella]

I reached a townread of ow pretty independently tbf

Like part of it was based on some meta info from lissa and zack i guess, like that he'd probably put in more overt effort as a wolf

But mostly just like, waterfallness

He's all over the place in an uninformed town way

[Sloonei]

I reached a townread of ow pretty independently tbf

Like part of it was based on some meta info from lissa and zack i guess, like that he'd probably put in more overt effort as a wolf

But mostly just like, waterfallness

He's all over the place in an uninformed town way

What is a waterfall?

[nutella]

I reached a townread of ow pretty independently tbf

Like part of it was based on some meta info from lissa and zack i guess, like that he'd probably put in more overt effort as a wolf

But mostly just like, waterfallness

He's all over the place in an uninformed town way

What is a waterfall?

It's a reference to https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... Newcomb%29

Real solving is like a waterfall - it's all moving in one direction generally but any individual moment can be almost random and nearly destructive in its chaos. But the further you step back away from it the easier it is to see how cohesive and flowing it really is.

Fake solving is like a Plinko board. Yes, there's movement, but it's like... discreet steps, and it's always moving towards just a couple outcomes. An individual movement might look somewhat fluid, but if you look at the whole board, it's easy to see how structured and rigid it really is.

townie processes are like waterfalls, scum processes are like plinko boards

[nutella]

like, his progression on marcher was weird, and could be coming from a teammate perspective. I just don't feel like it is

[Long Con]

Let's all vote nutella next phase then! Something seems really ott and fake and manufactured, like her reaction to TSP beubg tkd

;p

Noiw you

I reached a townread of ow pretty independently tbf

Like part of it was based on some meta info from lissa and zack i guess, like that he'd probably put in more overt effort as a wolf

But mostly just like, waterfallness

He's all over the place in an uninformed town way

What is a waterfall?

It's a reference to https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... Newcomb%29

Real solving is like a waterfall - it's all moving in one direction generally but any individual moment can be almost random and nearly destructive in its chaos. But the further you step back away from it the easier it is to see how cohesive and flowing it really is.

Fake solving is like a Plinko board. Yes, there's movement, but it's like... discreet steps, and it's always moving towards just a couple outcomes. An individual movement might look somewhat fluid, but if you look at the whole board, it's easy to see how structured and rigid it really is.

townie processes are like waterfalls, scum processes are like plinko boards

#balderdash

[Long Con]

LOL that was supposed to say "Now you're talkin'!

[DrWilgy]

Carot is the right answer.

I’d prefer to spend more time sorting out the two cop claims. We have open nights

I just don't see how the check wasn't on me. Makes absolutely no sense.

i mean i don't think i'd ever check someone i already had a strong wolfread on, that's not really weird to me

So I've been a wagon for more than 3 days in a row and I'm a strong wolfread, BUT I'm not a check for confirmation? I'll disagree with that.

[Long Con]

Carot is the right answer.

I’d prefer to spend more time sorting out the two cop claims. We have open nights

I just don't see how the check wasn't on me. Makes absolutely no sense.

i mean i don't think i'd ever check someone i already had a strong wolfread on, that's not really weird to me

So I've been a wagon for more than 3 days in a row and I'm a strong wolfread, BUT I'm not a check for confirmation? I'll disagree with that.

Yeah, I'd really like to resolve Wilgy.

[Long Con]

My posts usually shut down conversation. Ok, I'll go to bed.

[cayvie]

hookay ive got some catching up to do

[cayvie]

Carot is the right answer.

I’d prefer to spend more time sorting out the two cop claims. We have open nights

I just don't see how the check wasn't on me. Makes absolutely no sense.

Carot counterclaiming makes less sense.

I think the wolves have a role checker and mac claimed carots role.

weird thought process behind this one, dunya

like how do you get from "mac claimed cop" to "wolves have a role checker"

isn't fakeclaiming cop a normal thing for a wolf to do

[cayvie]

unless i'm reading you wrong, it sounds like the implication of your post is that wolf!mac wouldn't have thought to claim cop before... what, before a wolf targeted carot and got the result "cop" from her. idk, just seems like a strange place for your mind to go here.

[cayvie]

OW should not be a lock townread, especially not from sheeping me

I'm not interested in pushing there for the time being but I absolutely do not have the level of confidence you guys seem to think I do.

I mean uh

Have to start towncoring somewhere right

Six is already not a great number but I’m living with it given that two cop claims exist and one has a check if real, so towncore being six isn’t terrible with that in mind

I plan to spend early D5 trying to organize your trio plus cayvie into who we want to kill so we don’t have to last minute bumrush again

But yeah I think me/you/Lissa/cayvie/visor acting as a council of sorts, with moto locked town and whomever of Mac/carrote/sloonei we take as town, I think that’s a good start yeah?

i think everyone on your high council has nutella as town except you and maybe visor

is the argument for town!moto that wolf!moto wouldn't say 'happy birthday' to tony after a mislim?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

OW should not be a lock townread, especially not from sheeping me

I'm not interested in pushing there for the time being but I absolutely do not have the level of confidence you guys seem to think I do.

I mean uh

Have to start towncoring somewhere right

Six is already not a great number but I’m living with it given that two cop claims exist and one has a check if real, so towncore being six isn’t terrible with that in mind

I plan to spend early D5 trying to organize your trio plus cayvie into who we want to kill so we don’t have to last minute bumrush again

But yeah I think me/you/Lissa/cayvie/visor acting as a council of sorts, with moto locked town and whomever of Mac/carrote/sloonei we take as town, I think that’s a good start yeah?

i think everyone on your high council has nutella as town except you and maybe visor

is the argument for town!moto that wolf!moto wouldn't say 'happy birthday' to tony after a mislim?

Yeh, well, I’m not fighting it rn. Cross that bridge when we get there.

Primarily, yes.

[dunya]

Carot is the right answer.

I’d prefer to spend more time sorting out the two cop claims. We have open nights

I just don't see how the check wasn't on me. Makes absolutely no sense.

Carot counterclaiming makes less sense.

I think the wolves have a role checker and mac claimed carots role.

weird thought process behind this one, dunya

like how do you get from "mac claimed cop" to "wolves have a role checker"

isn't fakeclaiming cop a normal thing for a wolf to do

i didn't like the way he claimed. i'll show you the progression.

also i gave carot more benefit of the doubt because it was a counterclaim.

they kill carot tonight, and we are left wtf'ing macs claim and deciding if we believe it or not.

Okay fuckers I am an alignment cop. I didn't get enough glory to use my role until night 3. On night 3 I got a green on Sloonei.

"alignment" cop. now, i don't speak fluent english like a native, but in a game with what is two alignments "town and mafia", i wonder why mac had to say "alignment cop specifically like we're working with multi factions here. why not just say, i'm the cop. this is all in retrospect after bronana clears it out for me again that our only enemy as the mafia. this becomes more suspicious for me from carot's point that "alignment cop" is no where in the role.

i know i know, it's anal and silly and i'm ocd.

he got a green check on sloonei and he votes sloonei with marcher?

Okay fuckers I am an alignment cop. I didn't get enough glory to use my role until night 3. On night 3 I got a green on Sloonei.

So what was the deal with Marcher at the end of yesterday?

It is what it is Sloo

That’s not an answer.

I came into the thread and saw the votestate and the game felt off so I blew it up half meme half seeing if anything interesting would fall out. I didn't expect to actually create a cfd but if I did I wouldn't have cared. I mean I hardly even tried to tbh. It just feels like that cuz Marcher went ape shit when he saw me do it.

Also I've just been trying to prevent myself getting nked here mainly. I figure some people must have cottoned on given the cover I've been getting.

what kind of answer is this? do we believe mac treated sloonei as though he had a green check on him day 4? because i do not. one doesn't have to outright claim they fully trust sloonei but the cop with the green check does not contribute to a green check's possible miselim because they want to prevent getting nked, wtf. mac is a better player than that and i just do not believe his claim. he could have completely ignored sloonei and focused on his suspects: marcher/wilgy. he didn't.

the only thing that gives me pause is that the host has said claiming probably isn't good for us in this game and also because TH and Radishes' roles.

Radish's role:
Each Night, you provide someone with a sapling. A sapling protects that Exile from banishment that same Night. Once, you may give yourself the sapling. You may only target a particular Exile once.

TH's role:
You love wealth and the lifestyle it offers. Each Night, you will be able to sell a sapling of yours to any customer you like and receive twenty percent of the buyer’s Sol in the bargain (rounded up). You are so persuasive you will not be refused. A sapling protects that Exile from banishment that same Night. You may only target a particular Exile once.


you could say it's exactly the same, but it isn't.

mac and carot's roles seem....exactly the same, down to only beginning to role check someone night 3. that's why i have trouble taking it at face value and just saying yeah, they're both town.

in a game with a closed setup, it isn't hard for me to imagine a mafia role cop exists if we have an alignment cop tbh

[Long Con]

Good points, dunya. Mac's claim does start to look really fishy when you put it like that.

[dunya]

i'm not saying i'd shoot mac now, but i am way more wary of his role claim than nutella's as a grand total of his actions leading up to the role claim reveal.

[dunya]

also, i don't remember how many votes he had on him when he claimed, but they were not 10. seems like he really made little effort to clear himself before open claiming and a cop has everything to lose by claiming.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: macdougall] aubergine

i like the feel of this

I thought you and I were townreading each other and just lolcatting cover to protect us from night kills? What is this?

This is the only mention Mac makes of me Day 4. It does imply a town read, which is a sharp contrast to his attitude at the end of Day 3. That is not convincing on its own, unfortunately, and this post itself makes it seem like Mac is trying to claim that he never truly suspected, in which case why was I the most sensible check?

[cayvie]

Spoiler: show

Carot is the right answer.

I’d prefer to spend more time sorting out the two cop claims. We have open nights

I just don't see how the check wasn't on me. Makes absolutely no sense.

Carot counterclaiming makes less sense.

I think the wolves have a role checker and mac claimed carots role.

weird thought process behind this one, dunya

like how do you get from "mac claimed cop" to "wolves have a role checker"

isn't fakeclaiming cop a normal thing for a wolf to do

i didn't like the way he claimed. i'll show you the progression.

also i gave carot more benefit of the doubt because it was a counterclaim.

they kill carot tonight, and we are left wtf'ing macs claim and deciding if we believe it or not.

Okay fuckers I am an alignment cop. I didn't get enough glory to use my role until night 3. On night 3 I got a green on Sloonei.

"alignment" cop. now, i don't speak fluent english like a native, but in a game with what is two alignments "town and mafia", i wonder why mac had to say "alignment cop specifically like we're working with multi factions here. why not just say, i'm the cop. this is all in retrospect after bronana clears it out for me again that our only enemy as the mafia. this becomes more suspicious for me from carot's point that "alignment cop" is no where in the role.

i know i know, it's anal and silly and i'm ocd.

he got a green check on sloonei and he votes sloonei with marcher?

Okay fuckers I am an alignment cop. I didn't get enough glory to use my role until night 3. On night 3 I got a green on Sloonei.

So what was the deal with Marcher at the end of yesterday?

It is what it is Sloo

That’s not an answer.

I came into the thread and saw the votestate and the game felt off so I blew it up half meme half seeing if anything interesting would fall out. I didn't expect to actually create a cfd but if I did I wouldn't have cared. I mean I hardly even tried to tbh. It just feels like that cuz Marcher went ape shit when he saw me do it.

Also I've just been trying to prevent myself getting nked here mainly. I figure some people must have cottoned on given the cover I've been getting.

what kind of answer is this? do we believe mac treated sloonei as though he had a green check on him day 4? because i do not. one doesn't have to outright claim they fully trust sloonei but the cop with the green check does not contribute to a green check's possible miselim because they want to prevent getting nked, wtf. mac is a better player than that and i just do not believe his claim. he could have completely ignored sloonei and focused on his suspects: marcher/wilgy. he didn't.

the only thing that gives me pause is that the host has said claiming probably isn't good for us in this game and also because TH and Radishes' roles.

Radish's role:
Each Night, you provide someone with a sapling. A sapling protects that Exile from banishment that same Night. Once, you may give yourself the sapling. You may only target a particular Exile once.

TH's role:
You love wealth and the lifestyle it offers. Each Night, you will be able to sell a sapling of yours to any customer you like and receive twenty percent of the buyer’s Sol in the bargain (rounded up). You are so persuasive you will not be refused. A sapling protects that Exile from banishment that same Night. You may only target a particular Exile once.


you could say it's exactly the same, but it isn't.

mac and carot's roles seem....exactly the same, down to only beginning to role check someone night 3. that's why i have trouble taking it at face value and just saying yeah, they're both town.

in a game with a closed setup, it isn't hard for me to imagine a mafia role cop exists if we have an alignment cop tbh

thank you, dunya, that makes sense now. the only bone i have to pick is that the sloon wagon happened d3 and mac claims to have cleared sloon n3, i agree that the timing of the claim in the day seems weird. either way, your thought process is clear to me.

what's traditional cop wisdom around here? do you try to target wolfs, target towns, target your null reads, what?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Not sure there are enough open claim games with cops around here for there to be traditional wisdom

[Sloonei]

I don’t think we have a general consensus on how to handle being a cop. My strategy is to use it on players I am struggling to develop a read on one way or the other, but I’m not Mac so I don’t know how he’d use it.

[Long Con]

I often work to confirm or debunk my trusted players early, and then target the most-suspicious-but-harder-to-yeet players mid/late game.

[Long Con]

I don’t think we have a general consensus on how to handle being a cop. My strategy is to use it on players I am struggling to develop a read on one way or the other, but I’m not Mac so I don’t know how he’d use it.

If Mac is a town cop, then how things played out make the most obvious sense. He rides along with Jovian on a Sloonei vote to maintain some distrust for his NK survival, and then Jovian slams us with capital WIFOM about Sloonei, making you someone we need to figure out. Is Jovian doing it because he's your teammate? Is he trying to put suspicion on a villager? How much thread time do we want to spend discussing it?

Very little. So Mac checks you and is done with Jovian's last-ditch effort to mess with us.

[bronana]

So we meet again, Exiles.

Again you carry on with accusing and talking and accusing and talking.

Have you accomplished anything?

Perhaps you have. You have chosen to banish Marcher Jovian.

That’s too bad. I rather liked the name.

And so it is done.

Spoiler: show

Lendel of The Fate has been banished!

You are a meddlesome one. You will learn your target’s stats and inventory each Night. In addition, your target will be shown to be guilty if alignment checked that same Night.

You should be ashamed, Lendel.

Marcher Jovian was a Mafia Exile.

Tariq, the Lone Minstrel has chosen…

Spoiler: show

Ignarius to anoint.

Celeste, the Gate Guardian has chosen…

Spoiler: show

Mae to anoint.

Until the stars align...


It is now Night 3. You have until 7pm EST tomorrow to submit any Night action(s) you may have. Be mindful of the Glory attribute before sending a PM.

Marchers role implies the existence of a cop. It's surely something the wolves were aware of, and their nightkills likely had an element of cop hunting behind them.

This doesn't clear Mac, tho. The way he specified alignment the way marchers role does makes me :fry: a little

[nutella]

Marchers role implies the existence of a cop. It's surely something the wolves were aware of, and their nightkills likely had an element of cop hunting behind them.

ooooo good catch


this + dunya's analysis of why mac's claim is fishy (even though I'm not sure I trust dunya) does look pretty bad for mac

[dunya]

I don’t think we have a general consensus on how to handle being a cop. My strategy is to use it on players I am struggling to develop a read on one way or the other, but I’m not Mac so I don’t know how he’d use it.

If Mac is a town cop, then how things played out make the most obvious sense. He rides along with Jovian on a Sloonei vote to maintain some distrust for his NK survival, and then Jovian slams us with capital WIFOM about Sloonei, making you someone we need to figure out. Is Jovian doing it because he's your teammate? Is he trying to put suspicion on a villager? How much thread time do we want to spend discussing it?

Very little. So Mac checks you and is done with Jovian's last-ditch effort to mess with us.

if mac is wolf, this is suuuuuper wolfy

[dunya]

This doesn't clear Mac, tho. The way he specified alignment the way marchers role does makes me :fry: a little

we r gonna get along so, so well. *hi-5*

[Epignosis]

An eagle-eyed Exile has pointed out an unfortunate and incorrect wording in the first post regarding Sol distribution. Nothing has changed except that the rule has been revised (see the italics) for clarity:

Sol: The currency of the Downside. You may use Sol to purchase talismans from Falcon Ron’s Slugmarket. Talismans cannot be sold or transferred. At the end of each Day and Night phase, you will receive Sol equal to the number of remaining members of your triumvirate.

Continue.

[dunya]

holy shit, those fuckers are loaded.

excuse my french.

[dunya]

oh wait, we also receive it at the end of day and night phase.

still, this is very interesting to me. we should pay more attention to triumvirates. i mean i should. i'm going to check that out now.

[Long Con]

I don’t think we have a general consensus on how to handle being a cop. My strategy is to use it on players I am struggling to develop a read on one way or the other, but I’m not Mac so I don’t know how he’d use it.

If Mac is a town cop, then how things played out make the most obvious sense. He rides along with Jovian on a Sloonei vote to maintain some distrust for his NK survival, and then Jovian slams us with capital WIFOM about Sloonei, making you someone we need to figure out. Is Jovian doing it because he's your teammate? Is he trying to put suspicion on a villager? How much thread time do we want to spend discussing it?

Very little. So Mac checks you and is done with Jovian's last-ditch effort to mess with us.

if mac is wolf, this is suuuuuper wolfy

Not in any way, really.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

What makes you guys think that this is good analysis to be doing before a NK happens


Mac and carotte are 100% town for rn and their claims shouldn’t be evaluated at this point in time. Full stop.

[bronana]

I wasn't gonna say anything but it became a topic of discussion

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m not calling out anyone specifically

Just all y’all

[dunya]

Very important because any townie might die tonight.