Amy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:38 am
KZA (9): Nanook, Amy, nutella, WWH, Tim, proto, LC, Benson, Hally
Hally (4): Alison, Colin, tutuu, MR
Nanook (1): bob
nutella (1): Dizzy
iaafr (1): iaafr
Benson (1?): KZA? it's not in the poll anymore but idk if that's because he's dead or what
dunno how long vote polls last so i want this on the record
anyways
0% chance that kza wagon is clean if we assume there's 4 wolves total - the only
real question is "how hard was kza bussed"
i think benson is unlikely to be w/w with kza because of how early he vocalized suspicions, and because i think his posting towards the slot at eod just. didn't read as partnery. so i'm not concerned there
nanook initiating a planned bus is a tinfoil world that i find unlikely. i think nanook's just town and will not be reevaluating this until later in the game
and i know i'm town, obviously
so that leaves nutella, WWH, Tim, proto, LC, and to a lesser extent Hally (self pres is NAI but i can at least look at the progression) to examine for bussing
i'm also gonna go ahead and say that iaafr's eod flipflopping is a decent look? i think he legitimately leveled himself out of thinking kza was going to flip scum, and i think his push on hally doesn't read as a wolf trying to find a way to save a partner
so Nanook, Benson, and iaafr can be my starting towncore and we'll work from there
3/30
I don't know about
0% that there aren't any wolves. He could just be teammed with players that don't bus or weren't in a position to. Like I said, I haven't been reading too much into this wagon because so many things are possible due to the nature of how we saw kaz playing.
His teammates could have been waiting and hoping for him to get back into the game, which MR was doing if that's w/w. Or maybe they just knew he wasn't going to show and were ready to bus. I don't know and I think it's too dangerous to put a ton of stock in any of those ideas.
I'm still uncertain about rabbit. He feels towny but I don't want to lock that in yet. Funnily enough, before EoD I thought that maybe he was deliberately doing some anti-TMI stuff to make people look at that as towny when Kaz flipped. That's obviously a stretch though.
Amy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:00 am
nutella was a very very early sheeping of nanook's kza vote; i kinda buy it as coming from town, i think even in the world where nanook's executing a planned bus they probably space the votes out a bit more, and i doubt nutella decides to bus so easily as w/v with nanook either
LC is kind of in the same boat, i suppose. gut tells me i should be more worried about this one but i have no actual concrete evidence for it
proto and tim exist in an interesting spot, because proto voted kza only reluctantly while expressing concerns about the possibility of it flipping v all the while, and tim's vote largely followed directly from proto's. obviously this would look bad in a TMI-y way if kza flipped v... but he didn't. so i maybe kinda buy proto's waffliness as genuine? it's a weak read, because there's also a reading of "he's scum that wanted a way off the wagon" that exists, but i kinda wanna give him the townpoints.
tim, on the other hand, i will not clear for his vote. he sheeped proto, which is a... weird person whose vote you're gonna sheep to hop on a wagon, given the lack of conviction in it. he stated a fairly high confidence in a kza wolfflip after having kza low in a readslist earlier, despite having not talked at all about kza outside of that (and granted, quite a few people didn't, but i'm concerned about the persistent lowness on lists combined with the specifically waffly vote he chose to sheep). tim is also absolutely self-aware enough to make a big long post about how you should be careful about bussers on the wagon, while BEING a busser on the wagon. nothing incriminating here, but mild pings, i think. warrants further looking.
i took a quick glance at scirrus to see if he said anything about kza. he did not.
characterizing hally's vote as self-pres was... perhaps not correct. their original vote came after nanook pointed out kza's pop-in right after nanook mentioned him; they then sheeped said post with a "oh wow that does look kinda bad" and a vote, which happened to be the first kza-related comment hally made outside a nullread on a readslist and a "wow i forgot kza was in the game". they then jump immediately into attacking radishes for his reaction to the whole shebang and don't really revisit anything about kza - though granted, it's kind of hard to, given the lack of content.
WWH voted kza for literally no reason - wagon consolidation? saving hally? idfk - and i need to figure out if that's twtbaw or not. kinda lean not? but dunno for sure
tl;dr this makes me feel better about nutella, LC, proto; were i looking for a busser or two, i'd look first at tim, hally, WWH
4/30
I don't think Tim was sheeping per se, but he has given me an odd feeling all game. However, it's worth noting that his big speech about consolidating wagons and the type of players we should be targeted was indirectly a push towards Kaz, imo. Because that was the most likely elim of that group. I also just think Tim would be doing fewer "suspicious" things if he was wolfing.
I feel strongly about WWH being town. She is so innocent and I don't see her making that vote while saying "well i have kaz as neutral so lets yeet" (not verbatim lol).
There's nothing to me that excludes the possibility of Hally and Kaz as well. But I don't think the wagon supports it either necessarily.
Amy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:04 am
protocultures wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:56 am
1/30
So mainly just voted KZA because I didnt want Hally to die.
if that helps solve my alignment, then cool. If not, then look at my posts rather than the vote.
the KZA vote seems like a poison chalice strategy from mafia. I suspect that most of the the mafia are OUTSIDE the vote on KZA and they will push a world where mafia were bussing for credit to kill a lot of town.
KZA self voting kind of gives it away imo.
yeah ok you're just a villager
also, this is an interesting thought; i think it's... possible? but it's not something i'd necessarily pursue without some strong independent wolfreads outside the kza wagon
not that i'm saying i wouldn't vote outside the kza wagon, i'm saying that i'm probably going to always be assuming there's a busser or two on there unless it becomes incredibly likely that the wolves are elsewhere
caveat to my above post btw: i thought about it more and i don't think nutella brazenly sheeping nanook is necessarily out of w/w range. in general i'd probably say that it becomes entirely possible that one of nutella/LC is wolfing with nanook in that world; probably not both, just because THAT becomes a bit much
6/30
You had the same reaction to this as I did in terms of thinking it's towny.
The Nanook/Nutella association: I that's reasonable to conclude. I'm leaning more and more town on nutella anyways. And there's no reason to be thinking Nanook is a good scum candidate either (that is, unless our PoE is great and the wolves need to open things up
).
I still think we should be careful reading in to how the wolves approached everything.
