U-Pick Anything Volume 2 Game Thread (Day 4 )

[sheepsaysmeep]

yellows are really all tinfoils and i dont think any of them should be killed tonight

peeked is fine in italics

[sheepsaysmeep]

Apogee - claimed to disable chats which is yet to be publicly confirmed. did ita colin but not under super clearing circumstances such as those in which daisy ita'ed fg
beeboy - disabled a night, i really do think this isnt a wolf role
cayvie - a claimed vig but hasnt had an uncounterclaimed shot yet. this resolves via her shots.
colonialbob - a claimed backup to the role that kills w/v and had the awesome shot n1. this resolves via shots.
DaisyCloud - claimed v peek by hyena, shot fg, very villagery for showing up and doing things and having emotioons after being cleared already
DDL - medium, unlikely to be a wolf role?
DrWilgy - survived ita hits which is a very bad look
Epignosis - shot speedchuck apparently?
Hyena - silenced, claimed cop with n1 daisy v
iaafr - claims to have an effectively dead ephemeral whom he says is wolf, generally villagery, looooked good off of colin stuff, kp anyways but not super mech clear because he could be entirely lying about how role/disappearance works i guess.
Justplayingitcool - jailkeeper claim with tim n1, would have to be megabussed by ted which is not unlikely for ted specifically but idk
very faint yellow? Logic - targeted by eph role according to iaafr, poisonpeek
Long Con - poisoner who killed punchy? overall wolfy but resolves via kills.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - poisonpeek with logic
sabie12 - noo idea
sheepsaysmeep - to be objective here and not just leave it without reasoning at this stage, i do think i was one of the first people if not exactly the first one to try to get people to start looking at colin, enfoorced the poe in a way that ensured colin would not escape in the immediate future which has proven to be detrimental for wolves. also eph role stuff if rabbit speaks true and wifom doesnt exist
Sprityo idk
WerewolfHunter - unlikely to be lying about being about to die in a couple of phases lol. feel free to kill this if it's actually living past due date


tried to do colors off of objectivity and mechanics rather than my gut and my actual reads?



for new page

see pagetoop for your target pools

[sheepsaysmeep]

idk

a lot of the yellows are kp which are probably useless peeks in the long term anyway

ignore me

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Ok, so, looking at all this, some conclusions are pretty easy imo

In no particular order

beeboy is significantly above rand town, it's super pro mafia to let D2 end and mostly outed maple die without potentially losing anyone else to another round of ITAs.

Sheep is significantly above rand town [assuming that rabbit is town and Eph is mafia] due to Logic being sent a "red check" on them by a mafia

Logic is confirmed town FMPOV (same checked against me), should be from everyone's too since everyone should have me as town by this point imo

Rabbit is significantly above rand town, will resolve at some point before KILO

Bob is significantly above rand town

Daisy is significantly above rand town, shot FG D1 and was shot at by 2 flipped mafia plus Eph

Hyena is somewhat above rand but not locked given that Maple was very very clearly going to die when they were silenced.

Epi/Cayvie/LC are ignored for the time being, will reevaluate when we see who dies in the night.

Wilgy is slightly above rand town

WWH is above rand town for shooting xalt which outed maple, and we're never touching before D4 anyways due to death at EOD3 claim.


That leaves us with a N2 vig/poison pool of sabie/DDL/sprit

Bob checks JPIC against me

JPIC protects Logic

Any other investigatives go into the Hyena/Apogee/Rabbit pool.

[sheepsaysmeep]

nanook i will read yoour words at some point before night ends

o7

[sprityo]

What’d I miss guys? I packed away my tower today, so it’s gonna be phone posting from here on out.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

[mention]colonialbob[/mention] please check JPIC against me

[mention]Justplayingitcool[/mention] please protect logic

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] [mention]Long Con[/mention] [mention]cayvie[/mention] shots/poison go into sabie/DDL/Sprit please

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

nanook i will read yoour words at some point before night ends

o7

We disagree with some of the finer details but

We broadly agree on approach

[sheepsaysmeep]

also it's unclear from both being yellow in my list but

cayvie/colonial are doubtful to be w/w

one of them probably shot ted

unless they learn janitored role or whatever btu thats very unlikely tinfoily area

[sprityo]

I see a lot of night action discussion going on.

Are we sure that the mafia team hasn’t taken a role and used it to clear a teammate or a townie to appear legit?

There have been two janitor kills on townies so far

[sheepsaysmeep]

do we wanna just n2 massclaim lol

[sprityo]

[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention] you trying to powerball my gameplay my guy?

[sheepsaysmeep]

I see a lot of night action discussion going on.

Are we sure that the mafia team hasn’t taken a role and used it to clear a teammate or a townie to appear legit?

There have been two janitor kills on townies so far

faaaaair

youre worryign me right before i sleep im going to block this thought out from being processed for tonight and come back to it in the morning

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

do we wanna just n2 massclaim lol

We're pretty close already just missing sabie/sprit/daisy i think

[sprityo]

do we wanna just n2 massclaim lol

Yeah like wtf

Talk about snore fest

If we were close to solving the game I could understand

But there are FIVE wolves left still ( I think yeah?)

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I've been assuming the N1 janitor kills were cause mafia got two KP N1 (makes sense given we got two TKs) combined with chuck's role

[sprityo]

[mention]sheepsaysmeep[/mention] since you’ve taken notice. Which night actions can be reasonably faked?

[sheepsaysmeep]

my calculations were far less than 5

manti flipped, colonial flipped w

theres usually an already resolved wolf in eph/rabbit that we'll get to no matter what

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

There's like 3 mafia at most?

7 flipped, HK clearly mafia, plus one in Eph/Rabbit

So at MOST 3 mafia alive if Rabbit is mafia, 2 if Eph is

[sprityo]

I’m not sure if that discussion has come and passed already but it definitely should happen

[sprityo]

my calculations were far less than 5

manti flipped, colonial flipped w

theres usually an already resolved wolf in eph/rabbit that we'll get to no matter what

Oh right. I should go read the end of day 2 post

[sheepsaysmeep]

@sheepsaysmeep since you’ve taken notice. Which night actions can be reasonably faked?

should be made somewhat clear in my list this page but


honestly

a lot of it is verifiable killing which could be a wolf making protown shots but protown anyways for now shrug

off the top of my head

hyena v peek on daisy is physically capable of being faked, but i dont think either was in a position where that would have been needed to be faked

bee role is capable of being a wolf role but idts

i really dont know game seems close to mech solveable at least

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

FG/xalt/Nutella/chuck/ted/Colin/Maple have all flipped mafia, that's seven

HK was 99.9% mafia given he claimed a green check on Maple, that's eight

one in Rabbit/Eph that never win an endgame

Functionally two mafia left

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Sheep is your role still shrouded in mystery

[sheepsaysmeep]

like im lookoing at stuff like

bob claiming to have targeted ted and awesome and killed both after ted kill was already claimed

sure, in the loonger term this can be a wolf who just killed awesomoe

but also on a brooader scale we can leash it and give it specific targets so it can either proovoe itself or be prootown until everything reevaluated in late game

wouldnt want to kill a killing role claim before it has the chance to prove itself

not tonight's problem at least

[sheepsaysmeep]

Sheep is your role still shrouded in mystery

yeah

i may prefer to die before ever fullclaiming

[sheepsaysmeep]

do you really need to know about my roole at this moment i feel mechanically and postingwise and and volume wise treatment of some flipped wolf slots wise pretty obvious v right now

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Sheep is your role still shrouded in mystery

yeah

i may prefer to die before ever fullclaiming

K, just didn't want to dig through your ISO for no reason kek

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

do you really need to know about my roole at this moment i feel mechanically and postingwise and and volume wise treatment of some flipped wolf slots wise pretty obvious v right now

Naw just making sure I didn't miss it

If Rabbit flips mafia at some point I'll revisit

Until then assuming both of you are town

[sheepsaysmeep]

going to sleep now

dont like

skip night and kill a revealed innocent child while im gone

or anything in that area

glgl

[sprityo]

my calculations were far less than 5

manti flipped, colonial flipped w

theres usually an already resolved wolf in eph/rabbit that we'll get to no matter what

Was this Cbob or colin? Also when did colin die?

[sheepsaysmeep]

my calculations were far less than 5

manti flipped, colonial flipped w

theres usually an already resolved wolf in eph/rabbit that we'll get to no matter what

Was this Cbob or colin? Also when did colin die?

oh yeah it was colin my bad

ita's

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm pretty determined to win this game tbh, not gonna let anyone get stupid now

Syndicate needs to know what a good town win feels like kek

[sprityo]

I'm pretty determined to win this game tbh, not gonna let anyone get stupid now

Syndicate needs to know what a good town win feels like kek

More like I need to know what a good town win feels like, smh

[sprityo]

So it’s 15:3 right now for town to mafia ratio right?

It’s only night two so that’s one more day until WWH “dies”

No one has come forward about the freeze thing and no one has come forward about being able to heal poison status.

Also LC outted himself as poisoner??? What is up with that?

[DaisyCloud]

I'm pretty determined to win this game tbh, not gonna let anyone get stupid now

Syndicate needs to know what a good town win feels like kek

does town not win much? this is sad. i have the WIM now. WIM for town. I sound cheesy. idc.

the lists I see look good. I got minor questions. mostly how things are phrased that I feel makes me look dumb for not knowing what it means. so idk if I have concernaments or not.

[DaisyCloud]

So it’s 15:3 right now for town to mafia ratio right?

It’s only night two so that’s one more day until WWH “dies”

No one has come forward about the freeze thing and no one has come forward about being able to heal poison status.

Also LC outted himself as poisoner??? What is up with that?

it's not nite 2 yet

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm pretty determined to win this game tbh, not gonna let anyone get stupid now

Syndicate needs to know what a good town win feels like kek

does town not win much? this is sad. i have the WIM now. WIM for town. I sound cheesy. idc.

the lists I see look good. I got minor questions. mostly how things are phrased that I feel makes me look dumb for not knowing what it means. so idk if I have concernaments or not.

No need to feel silly, I tend towards using short hand a bit, if you’ve got questions now’s the time to ask them

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

And no town does not have a very good record on syndicate lol

I’ve been trying to get them playing closer to this for a year and it’s finally working

[sprityo]

So it’s 15:3 right now for town to mafia ratio right?

It’s only night two so that’s one more day until WWH “dies”

No one has come forward about the freeze thing and no one has come forward about being able to heal poison status.

Also LC outted himself as poisoner??? What is up with that?

it's not nite 2 yet

Wha- what??????

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

It’s either 15/3 if rabbit is mafia or 16/2 if he’s town


Although I wouldn’t count me towards parity necessarily given that I’m not sure how an f3 would be handled, I would assume it would be counted as a mafia win given I can’t vote tho

[sprityo]

Right you’re the almighty stump so minus one

also someone changed our confused2 emote and I’m not happy with it

[DaisyCloud]

Ok, so, looking at all this, some conclusions are pretty easy imo

In no particular order

beeboy is significantly above rand town, it's super pro mafia to let D2 end and mostly outed maple die without potentially losing anyone else to another round of ITAs.

Sheep is significantly above rand town [assuming that rabbit is town and Eph is mafia] due to Logic being sent a "red check" on them by a mafia

Logic is confirmed town FMPOV (same checked against me), should be from everyone's too since everyone should have me as town by this point imo

Rabbit is significantly above rand town, will resolve at some point before KILO

Bob is significantly above rand town

Daisy is significantly above rand town, shot FG D1 and was shot at by 2 flipped mafia plus Eph

Hyena is somewhat above rand but not locked given that Maple was very very clearly going to die when they were silenced.

Epi/Cayvie/LC are ignored for the time being, will reevaluate when we see who dies in the night.

Wilgy is slightly above rand town

WWH is above rand town for shooting xalt which outed maple, and we're never touching before D4 anyways due to death at EOD3 claim.


That leaves us with a N2 vig/poison pool of sabie/DDL/sprit

Bob checks JPIC against me

JPIC protects Logic

Any other investigatives go into the Hyena/Apogee/Rabbit pool.

what do you mean when you say above rand town?

I feel like when you make lists players are in order town, town lean, null, scum lean, scum. this can be stretched out to make more brackets if needed.

so when you say above rand town I interpret it as above random town. rand also has to do with your alignment. ex. player A randed doc or did player B rand mafia again?

so DrWilgy you say is above rand town you mean they randed outside of town? i.e. scum? or? if so i agree. I think they are scummy. think if I'm using the terms right have been frozen so they don't spew.


but you say hyena is slightly above rand town. so that can't be what you mean.

also seems like I forget what POE means. I have played enough games so I should know but I always forget.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Above rand town means they have a higher than random chance to be town. Right now random chance is ~88% so above rand means higher than an 88% chance they’re town.

The list isn’t ordered, it’s just the order I thought of people on.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

POE is process of elimination, basically shorthand for the group of players that aren’t townread/don’t have mechanical reasons not to kill them rn.

[WerewolfHunter]

So it’s 15:3 right now for town to mafia ratio right?

It’s only night two so that’s one more day until WWH “dies”

No one has come forward about the freeze thing and no one has come forward about being able to heal poison status.

Also LC outted himself as poisoner??? What is up with that?

I feel most likely I will die unless it's a redacted role. Also I realized that if I do survive I get an unknown ability

[Long Con]

@Epignosis @Long Con @cayvie shots/poison go into sabie/DDL/Sprit please

Quack!

Also LC outted himself as poisoner??? What is up with that?

Quack.

it's not nite 2 yet

Quack??

Day 2 has finally ended. What a marathon.

Night 2 begins.

[iaafr]

[Justplayingitcool]

Why was Tim killed. Rude

[iaafr]

what if wilgys the arso