Amdibals at the Zoo! [END]

[ColinIsCool]

Urist -> 10k -> TSP -> Nanook -> Carotte -> Alison at f5 -> (then depends on flips) would be my poe i guess

Why Carotte?

why not?

I asked you first

no like literally why not put her in the poe? i mean i townread her so there are 4 other ppl before her but why not

I guess I don’t have a reason, I was just curious for yours.

Where does ted fit in?

[MacDougall]

I was reevaluating on Urist but his omgussing and tunneling of me while I am town reading him and trying to solve his slot is swinging me back the other way a bit tbh.

World 1 - Urist is mafia. TSP = Carotte > Wilgy > TTC POE.
World 2 - Urist is town. TSP/Wilgy are lock mafia.
Amy, Alison, Tutuu, Nook, Tedxtr, Colin, Protocultures are townreads for various different reasons right now.

This is the way. Sheep this.

[tutuu]

Urist -> 10k -> TSP -> Nanook -> Carotte -> Alison at f5 -> (then depends on flips) would be my poe i guess

Why Carotte?

why not?

I asked you first

no like literally why not put her in the poe? i mean i townread her so there are 4 other ppl before her but why not

I guess I don’t have a reason, I was just curious for yours.

Where does ted fit in?

i forgot about him when writing that post but i view him very similarly to carotte. i townread him based off tone and thats it

im trying to like sheep as much as i can cuz my own actual reads are actually ... scumreading you lol, and i think i shouldnt trust my own reads so its a weird mindset to balance and keep in mind that my reads suck and just try to listen to other ppl. ppl who lynched wolf say they want urist 10k tsp nanook dead so im on board i guess

[tutuu]

[mention]Amy[/mention] [mention]Alison[/mention] [mention]MacDougall[/mention] can u pls reassure me colin couldnt have bussed? if u say "no tutuu, colin lock town" then i will think lock town and wont tinfoil anymore

[MacDougall]

Colin's push on 112 is actually more sensible and credible than I was expecting tbh. He provided good reasons for the vote. He also is just obviously not in his scum meta. No offense to Colin but he's a potato when he rands mafia.

[tutuu]

lmao okiiii boss. u give the orders i follow!

[Urist]

I'm no risk of being yeeted but given I actually kind of think Urist is town now (and Nook too tbh) it's important you stop omgussing me Urist.

On mobile so going to reply to your long posts here.

Fair enough re: timezones, I kinda forgot about that. But I still don't agree that your vote was impactful. I highly doubt that anyone in this game would be stupid enough to tie the vote, as either alignment. Especially since I think I was the only one who'd expressed a serious townread on 112.

Re: TSP... I absolutely agree on your analysis of TSP, he was probably my second choice yesterday and is definitely a valid option today for reasons I've already stated.

Re: Wilgy... I don't necessarily agree with this. I did heavily dislike the fact that he didn't post on d1, not even a "hi", considering he was active enough to post a few times in the upick discord. It looks especially bad knowing that 112 was mafia. The thing that gives me pause though is that in the middle of the day, 112 placed a silent third vote on Wilgy / TH. It's hard for me to see this as w/w, considering it was the 3rd vote and TH was probably a viable wagon at that point. I'd be tempted to say that Wilgy is spewed town if it weren't for the +wolf stuff I mentioned. In any case, I don't think Wilgy is a great option today.

[MacDougall]

Amy and tutuu are both involved in the game in a way I wouldn't expect they could create as scum- townleans there still.

Urist seems to be coasting a little bit and isn't offering too much of substance, but I like their tone and they seem to be inside a cocoon of genuine uncertainty around the gamestate. I maintain my townlean.

Colin is way on the outskirts of things, dropping in to comment little bits here and there without much solving actions. I think he's a good person to put under the microscope.

The way 112 finessed their way into pushing on Colin is also not very teammate likely.

Ive decided 3rd maf is colin, making that post by post case on 112, shading tedxtrs wrong vote on mcdougall as opportunustic rather than just wrong as mcdougall identified it as. colin just slimy

if its not him it has to be 10k calories

“Here are things Colin did”

[SLIDE MISSING]

“And that concludes my discussion of why they’re scummy”

strawmanning is always wolfy

I feel like 112 was actually trying to drum up interest in Colin. And also somewhat ironically the fact that 112 didn't ever actually vote him makes it more likely that it was legit and not just for distance cred. 112 votes teammates.

[MacDougall]

I'm no risk of being yeeted but given I actually kind of think Urist is town now (and Nook too tbh) it's important you stop omgussing me Urist.

On mobile so going to reply to your long posts here.

Fair enough re: timezones, I kinda forgot about that. But I still don't agree that your vote was impactful. I highly doubt that anyone in this game would be stupid enough to tie the vote, as either alignment. Especially since I think I was the only one who'd expressed a serious townread on 112.

Re: TSP... I absolutely agree on your analysis of TSP, he was probably my second choice yesterday and is definitely a valid option today for reasons I've already stated.

Re: Wilgy... I don't necessarily agree with this. I did heavily dislike the fact that he didn't post on d1, not even a "hi", considering he was active enough to post a few times in the upick discord. It looks especially bad knowing that 112 was mafia. The thing that gives me pause though is that in the middle of the day, 112 placed a silent third vote on Wilgy / TH. It's hard for me to see this as w/w, considering it was the 3rd vote and TH was probably a viable wagon at that point. I'd be tempted to say that Wilgy is spewed town if it weren't for the +wolf stuff I mentioned. In any case, I don't think Wilgy is a great option today.

Okay so like, firstly, I literally am totally capable of just yolo tying the votes there. It's in my range as either alignment. All I'd need to do is find one Alison post that was remotely odd and vote with the word "yolo" and we have a tie. I could absolutely have done that as town. It's fortunate for the town that I wasn't in a rambunctious mood. Secondly there are many other players in this game capable of flipping. Hell TSP looked like he was prepping to himself with the DADV post.

Re: your comments about the 112 silent vote. This is what 112 does. I did a full analysis in champs semi last year and calculated how many votes and how many minutes each player left at f5 spent on flipped mafia (all but one had at that point) and 112 had the most by far. 112 sneakily gets votes on teammates for future cred. But as you can see with my worlds, Wilgy isn't who I want to solve first.

[MacDougall]

Here's the post for reference. I lost the game in F3 to 112 largely because of this. 112 plays a very clean wolf game. Pockets town and distances/busses where necessary. It's their standard. The vast majority of the time 112 spent in this game voting on teammates occurred prior to the first mafia flip fwiw.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost3502111

Okay that took way too long and was probably overkill but here's the results.

112 spent 211 minutes on Evenstar, 4340 on HATER, 256 on FTFlush for a total of 4807 minutes on wolves, first place!

Adrian spent 1183 minutes on Evenstar, 2784 minutes on HATER, 106 minutes on FTFlush for a total of 4073 minutes, second place!

Mac spent 4 minutes (lol) on Evenstar, 2744 minutes on HATER and 987 minutes on FTFlush for a total of 3735 (third place)

Tex spent 761 minutes on Evenstar, 1721 minutes on HATER and 884 minutes on FTFlush for a total of 3366 minutes (fourth place!)

Vanity spent 228 minutes on Evenstar, 811 minutes on HATER and 1652 on FTFlush (the most by far) for a total of 2691 (fifth place).

So we'll call that analysis the "wolf vote pressure quotient" and add that one to the big book of analytics that actually works to find wolves because Vanity is a wolf, and he came last in it, so therefore it's a thing.

Yah.

[protocultures]

I don't want to vote tutuu today but can some people give their views? This whole submissive "will sheep towncore votes" feels off to me. I don't scumread them enough to vote them but it doesn't feel right or normal. Anyone else?

I feel like carot is still trying to solve my slot so want to lean them town still and won't vote them today. Also they might make a cool presentation again and who wants to miss that?

Mac - still undecided on. They seem to be going powertown mode now for some reason. They aren't being super sussed following 111 flip anyway so maybe this is the example of "sometimes Mac just spews himself town"?

I don't have a strong read on TSP but I don't see the reason Mac super scumreads them. They have more meta together I guess. Is anyone other than Mac super scumreading them?

Nanooks spamming of shrug emoji now means something, I just don't know what.

10k probably an easy misyeet for being low post count.

I can never read Urist at all and when I try, I am still wrong so never going to "make a case" against them and lead a charge for their head.

I would probably be okay flipping turnip/Dr today. I don't read too much into interactions or votes or kills etc. Just vote scummy kinda people. This is nothing scummy Dr has done btw, all turnip head. Maybe that's bad but unless I see wagons forming threatening my townreads or it becomes clear my vote is a useless vanity vote, I'm okay parking my vote there for now.

[VOTE: wilco] aubergine

[Urist]

I was reevaluating on Urist but his omgussing and tunneling of me while I am town reading him and trying to solve his slot is swinging me back the other way a bit tbh.

World 1 - Urist is mafia. TSP = Carotte > Wilgy > TTC POE.
World 2 - Urist is town. TSP/Wilgy are lock mafia.
Amy, Alison, Tutuu, Nook, Tedxtr, Colin, Protocultures are townreads for various different reasons right now.

This is the way. Sheep this.

Am I tunneled? I just got online and am catching up as quickly as possible (and trying to keep up tbh, I'm multitasking and certain people are flooding the thread).

I would def be willing to go for TSP first. I'm not going to be convinced that there isn't scum in the people who were calling 112 mafia early without voting there, but I haven't actually inventoried the full list of the people this applies to so I'm not 100% sure what my own PoE looks like atm, if that makes sense.

[MacDougall]

I don't want to vote tutuu today but can some people give their views? This whole submissive "will sheep towncore votes" feels off to me. I don't scumread them enough to vote them but it doesn't feel right or normal. Anyone else?

I feel like carot is still trying to solve my slot so want to lean them town still and won't vote them today. Also they might make a cool presentation again and who wants to miss that?

Mac - still undecided on. They seem to be going powertown mode now for some reason. They aren't being super sussed following 111 flip anyway so maybe this is the example of "sometimes Mac just spews himself town"?

I don't have a strong read on TSP but I don't see the reason Mac super scumreads them. They have more meta together I guess. Is anyone other than Mac super scumreading them?

Nanooks spamming of shrug emoji now means something, I just don't know what.

10k probably an easy misyeet for being low post count.

I can never read Urist at all and when I try, I am still wrong so never going to "make a case" against them and lead a charge for their head.

I would probably be okay flipping turnip/Dr today. I don't read too much into interactions or votes or kills etc. Just vote scummy kinda people. This is nothing scummy Dr has done btw, all turnip head. Maybe that's bad but unless I see wagons forming threatening my townreads or it becomes clear my vote is a useless vanity vote, I'm okay parking my vote there for now.

[VOTE: wilco] aubergine

I mean I just posted why. Just read it.

[MacDougall]

112 Notes - Ended day one on CCC mislynch. Opened day 2 on FTFlush and first vote change was to HATER. Post #3094 he unvoted HATER just so he could vote HATER again. He was on wolves for literally the entirety of day 2 switching only between HATER and FTFlush.

Adrian notes - Up until the HATER vote on day 2, Adrian hadn't voted for a wolf yet except for Evenstar which he slept on the vote of. He did have his vote on HATER and Flush on day 2. LEFT HIS VOTE ON FLUSH! Voted HATER 2 hours after day start on day 3 and left it there for nearly 48 fucking hours.

Vanity notes - Voted FTFlush for a massive chunk of day 1 but didn't end there. One of few players who actually voted for Evenstar in the day 2 chaos but ended up on Nutella with me. Vanity's day 3 is weird because he actually votes really infrequently compared to everyone else. He doesn't get his vote onto HATER until it's absolutely last minute. Does end there though. Is the first vote on Evenstar on day 4, wasn't around when I came online and made the strong case that led to myself and 112 hammering her though. (I had written HATER there before but it was actually FTFlush that he had his vote on for ages on day 1).

Tex notes - Had an Evenstar and a Flush vote on day 1. Noice. All over Flush/HATER day 2 like stink on shit brah. Did bite at the Grape counterwagon AND the Evenstar counterwagon. Funny, got off Grape to get onto Evenstar is something nobody else did and feels like something a wolf wouldn't have done there. Went for the Nut lynch like me. Oh well, we can't all be fucking 112 and Adrian can we. Took a while to get to HATER on day 3, but stuck there. Everyone's day 3 is clean except Vanity's really. He was last to jump onto HATER and spent the least amount of time pressuring wolf.

Self notes - I didn't vote a single wolf on day 1 despite suspecting heaps of them. I fucking suck. Got a vote on Flush on day 2 for a while and switched to HATER. Seems everyone was doing that. I am the suck for getting off the Flush wagon on day 2. Voted HATER on day 3 and stayed there all day long.

Some more notes regarding 112 voting teammates.

[tutuu]

im not a liar proto this is just how i feel ;-;

[MacDougall]

Questions town should be asking themselves to establish their hypotheses. If you're town and lost, allow these questions to direct your investigations.

Does 112 look like someone getting bussed day 1? My view is that 112 at EOD was using ATE to try to survive. 112 is admittedly capable of and frequently deploys ATE as mafia to guilt people into backing off. I do not feel bad for saying so. It is my view that 112 did not give up and had no desire to flip. That doesn't mean mafia weren't voting there, but it does mean that mafia weren't wanting to see the flip. This is part of why TSP is suspicious. TSP is the one 112 that worked against that wagon and did so several times. Do you disagree with my take? Did 112 play that EOD like someone trying to establish credibility for bussing teammates? Show me if you think so. Because bussing works both ways. If 112 was being bussed, it stands to reason that 112 would also have been bussing. Perhaps Tutuu you can explore your Colin suspicion on that proviso because it does profile. Given I don't think 112 was strategically being bussed I am not committed to reads in that world.

It matters to work this out because it establishes what you should be expecting to see from mafia. If you truly believe 112 was intentionally bussed, you'd expect mafia to be deepwolfing and subsequently arrogantly owning their newfound inno child status and pushing hard into low hanging fruit POE that were voting Alison. If you have good reason for thinking 112 was being bussed, you need to establish who. The major protagonists for 112 being yeeted on day 1 were myself, Colin and our dearly departed town confirm Nutella. Perhaps you could make an argument for saying that yeeting Nutella there is designed to make the wagon look more pure than it ought to be? Would it not behoove the mafia to leave Nutella alive and shoot outside the wagon to lend credibility to the notion that 112 was bussed?

If you believe 112 was not bussed, then you can expect the mafia to have little to no gained credibility from the day 1 result, and would therefore be attempting to create more negative outcomes for town. Not cooperating. Pushing into the towncore, or into town among the LHF. Are you town in the LHF? Who is pushing you?

Or perhaps you're more inclined to think the town just outplayed mafia on day 1 with wim. That 112 was left high and dry by AFK or low effort teammates. Or teammates incapable of controlling the thread for good outcomes.

There are only a handful of possibilities when you cut it this way, and determining which you think is the most likely will allow you to view the game with clarity.

[MacDougall]

[mention]protocultures[/mention] summary of TSP suspicion for your easy reading:

TSP's read on 112 in the first place was clearly a meme.

Several times during the day TSP soft defended 112 and also was working to damage the credibility of the wagon, while remaining on it. The first time was in boldly claiming that regardless of 112's flip that TSP believed mafia was pushing there. TSP didn't explain why. Can you rationalise why TSP would think so? I personally tend towards thinking that those that share my suspicions are >rand town, so it doesn't sit right for TSP to just boldly declare that. If TSP thought this, why did TSP continue to vote there? What is the motive for TSP to vote with mafia as town? The second time was when Tutuu observed 112 and TH voting together, she opined that it might be w/w, TSP suddenly pivots to disagree with her take and speculates that it makes him think perhaps the opposite. Yet he still ends up voting 112. The third time, and this is probably the most glaring. Is by mentioning DADV at EOD. DADV = dead air dead villager. It basically means that if there is no movement at EOD it is usually indicative of a villa yeet. Given it wasn't a villa yeet at all, this is easily to be taken as TSP trying to get people to look elsewhere and trying to encourage a CFD. Again he did this without having the courage to move his vote or actually push anyone else.

Fast forward to day 2 and you have TSP immediately declaring that it's a guaranteed bus and pushing into firm towncore twice. Firstly he arbitrarily accuses me of being the busser and when that went nowhere, he flips to town reading me and lands on Amy instead. I consider this behaviour well aligned with what I'd expect from a mafioso that lost a teammate day 1 voting on them. I consider it severely misaligned with how a town on a successful wagon would view that wagon.

TSP has the most wolfy agenda of anyone in the game. It is not hard at all to see many of his decisions as mafia agenda.

[tutuu]

Votecount
112 (3): nutella, Amy, ColinIsCool
Alison (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, tutuu
Amy (1): Turnip Head
ColinIsCool (1): TonyStarkPrime
MacDougall (2): protocultures, tedxtr
Turnip Head/DrWilgy (3): 112, Alison, Urist
Urist (1): MacDougall

112 & Alison voting Turnip Head together is making me shiver. Could it be w/w? hmmn maybe.

Wait did 112 seriously show up to change her vote from 10k to Wilgy without posting?

i saw it happening live. 112 did in fact change votes without posting anything itt, both before and after the vote change. i think the vote change was never explained even but i could be wrong.

i thought they're just low energy town / quiet analytical type of town

now that i know they're scum, and that eod1 was pretty quiet and dead, i am inclined to believe she wanted to get bussed. its based off an assumption, but if i was 112 and i was depressed and i randed mafia, literally my first message in wolf chat would be to ping my teammates and ask them to bus me

this is colin's stuff on 112

I am going to reread 112’s posts and perhaps highlight anything I find that I dislike.

Town
tutuu
Amy
Urist
Mac

These appear out of thin air.

Amy and tutuu are both involved in the game in a way I wouldn't expect they could create as scum- townleans there still.

Urist seems to be coasting a little bit and isn't offering too much of substance, but I like their tone and they seem to be inside a cocoon of genuine uncertainty around the gamestate. I maintain my townlean.

Colin is way on the outskirts of things, dropping in to comment little bits here and there without much solving actions. I think he's a good person to put under the microscope.

This post again is like, what. The first graf is sensible enough but the second has that wishy-washy hesitancy and the third is just incorrigible. It is worth noting that 112 suggested I be put under a microscope but made no effort to do so.

someone called tenthousandcalories obvious town but i didn't like the only post i remember from that slot

who was it and why are they obvtown?

it was a misunderstanding between me and carotte, turns out nobody is townreading 10k calories

thanks

[VOTE: TenThousandCalories] aubergine

Justification in an earlier post being “I didn’t like the post I saw from them”. “Disgusting.”

[VOTE: 112] aubergine on the basis of my recent posts and I trust that wagon (nutella and Amy) more than the others.

i personally and subjectively perceive this as not very natural / flowy. i just read it and it looks artificial (to me)

i personlly and subjectively perceive this as bussy

but, something to keep in mind is that last game i wrongly toneread colin, this game im also scumreading him when multiple towcore ppl are townreading him which could lead to me just not having the ability to properly read colin, and on top of all just my reads in general (not specifically on colin) seem to be below rand accurate in general, so these are the stuff making me hesitant / lose confidence to listen to my head so id rather just not listen to it and listen to everyone else

[MacDougall]

Okay it wasn't Tutuu that made the observation about 112/TH being w/w it was Carotenoid, which is something in it's own right given Carotenoid ended up on Alison and is now voting for Nook alongside Wilgy.

[MacDougall]

Actually I read that whole thing wrong. Carotenoid suggesting Alison/112 might be w/w for voting TH. It's still relevant because it's still TSP showing his 112 read was flaky.

[MacDougall]

Actually it makes Carotenoid more town because it's a justification for being on Alison over 112. Carotenoid is just town I think. 112 spew plus this.

[Urist]

I don't want to vote tutuu today but can some people give their views? This whole submissive "will sheep towncore votes" feels off to me. I don't scumread them enough to vote them but it doesn't feel right or normal. Anyone else?

I feel like carot is still trying to solve my slot so want to lean them town still and won't vote them today. Also they might make a cool presentation again and who wants to miss that?

Mac - still undecided on. They seem to be going powertown mode now for some reason. They aren't being super sussed following 111 flip anyway so maybe this is the example of "sometimes Mac just spews himself town"?

I don't have a strong read on TSP but I don't see the reason Mac super scumreads them. They have more meta together I guess. Is anyone other than Mac super scumreading them?

Nanooks spamming of shrug emoji now means something, I just don't know what.

10k probably an easy misyeet for being low post count.

I can never read Urist at all and when I try, I am still wrong so never going to "make a case" against them and lead a charge for their head.

I would probably be okay flipping turnip/Dr today. I don't read too much into interactions or votes or kills etc. Just vote scummy kinda people. This is nothing scummy Dr has done btw, all turnip head. Maybe that's bad but unless I see wagons forming threatening my townreads or it becomes clear my vote is a useless vanity vote, I'm okay parking my vote there for now.

[VOTE: wilco] aubergine

Making a big deal about being wrong is something I never read as town, and tutuu is doing just that so she does ping me a little. She also pushed the Alison wagon, which if I'm being real is +wolf. I realize I did this myself but it is what it is.

I think if you saw my scum game you would be able to tell pretty easily. I have a hard time not commiting TMI and other such basic scum faux pas.

[protocultures]

@protocultures summary of TSP suspicion for your easy reading:

TSP's read on 112 in the first place was clearly a meme.

Several times during the day TSP soft defended 112 and also was working to damage the credibility of the wagon, while remaining on it. The first time was in boldly claiming that regardless of 112's flip that TSP believed mafia was pushing there. TSP didn't explain why. Can you rationalise why TSP would think so? I personally tend towards thinking that those that share my suspicions are >rand town, so it doesn't sit right for TSP to just boldly declare that. If TSP thought this, why did TSP continue to vote there? What is the motive for TSP to vote with mafia as town? The second time was when Tutuu observed 112 and TH voting together, she opined that it might be w/w, TSP suddenly pivots to disagree with her take and speculates that it makes him think perhaps the opposite. Yet he still ends up voting 112. The third time, and this is probably the most glaring. Is by mentioning DADV at EOD. DADV = dead air dead villager. It basically means that if there is no movement at EOD it is usually indicative of a villa yeet. Given it wasn't a villa yeet at all, this is easily to be taken as TSP trying to get people to look elsewhere and trying to encourage a CFD. Again he did this without having the courage to move his vote or actually push anyone else.

Fast forward to day 2 and you have TSP immediately declaring that it's a guaranteed bus and pushing into firm towncore twice. Firstly he arbitrarily accuses me of being the busser and when that went nowhere, he flips to town reading me and lands on Amy instead. I consider this behaviour well aligned with what I'd expect from a mafioso that lost a teammate day 1 voting on them. I consider it severely misaligned with how a town on a successful wagon would view that wagon.

TSP has the most wolfy agenda of anyone in the game. It is not hard at all to see many of his decisions as mafia agenda.

I see your argument, it just doesnt convince me TSP is mafia.

In another world: Mafia places a vote onto 112, not for the purpose of bussing day 1, but for future town credit in case 112 flips later in the game to say "look I voted on mafia day 1!". As it actually turned out, 112 got flipped day 1 and mafia felt trapped into keeping the vote on 112. Theres no reason why that isnt also a plausible world.

TSP pushing amy as mafia is just weird and unlikely to be mafia TSP. Its unlikely to get traction from how I read the gamestate. TSP probably needs to explain their reasoning on the push onto Amy for it to stick with me. A push i dont agree with doesnt make TSP mafia though.

i dont super like looking into the night kill or votes because of all of the potential wifom with flips on. I prefer to just keep voting on people I think are likely to be mafia.

[Urist]

[VOTE: None] aubergine for now bc i actually am reconsidering my read on mac but i have to go do family stuff for a while.

I do want to say that town's winrate at this point is less than 40%, and that's with the d1 scum yeet. So we're def not out of the woods yet, don't get complacent and think we can afford a liberal PoE.

[tutuu]

if we lose this will be my 5th loss in a row on syndicate. 5 games 5 losses. would feel legit heartbroken, please lets win guys ;-;. ill try my best and stuff and if u want me to do something more or differently or something ill do anything that u ask of me i just wanna win and i hope i dont throw please please please

[MacDougall]

I don't feel like we're going to lose, but if this game is on day 4/5 and I'm dead and other towncore are dead I encourage the town left to not turn to water and become listless. Every time the mafia cut off a towncore head, another must take the place. Every time they have to kill someone for being too pure/too much wim/too good of reads, they don't get to make wifom kills and they don't get to dictate the game.

[protocultures]

if we lose this will be my 5th loss in a row on syndicate. 5 games 5 losses. would feel legit heartbroken, please lets win guys ;-;. ill try my best and stuff and if u want me to do something more or differently or something ill do anything that u ask of me i just wanna win and i hope i dont throw please please please

haha I had to play out of TS to get a forum win...

[tutuu]

lmao

[Alison]

I think Nook and Tutuu voting there is particularly useful for my analysis. After being on the wrong wagon day 1, deferring to the towncore here is kinda what I'd expect them to do as town moreso than mafia. Presuming Urist is town, I'd get the sense that if Nook and/or Tutuu, both being active and contributory players, would find it quite easy to just townread him, watch him go over from the townies pushing on him and start building future misyeets elsewhere or look for ways to get themselves more town cleared. Nook in particular voting against his gut on Urist is not how I expect him to play it as mafia. He's not playing to future outs.

If Urist is mafia (which you admit is a real possibility), what do you expect nanook and tutuu to do as scum?

Agree that if Urist is town I'd expect nanook/tutuu to stick their guns on an Urist town read for some made up reason and then turn the wagon on the people who voted Urist the next day.

[Alison]

I must admit I'm a little confused by your post Mac - why is Urist 70% likely to be town? I understand your analysis of interactions based off the presumption of Urist's alignment, but your conclusion that Urist is probably town and the people pushing offwagon to setup for a future misexe is confusing to me.

[Alison]

I was reevaluating on Urist but his omgussing and tunneling of me while I am town reading him and trying to solve his slot is swinging me back the other way a bit tbh.

World 1 - Urist is mafia. TSP = Carotte > Wilgy > TTC POE.
World 2 - Urist is town. TSP/Wilgy are lock mafia.
Amy, Alison, Tutuu, Nook, Tedxtr, Colin, Protocultures are townreads for various different reasons right now.

This is the way. Sheep this.

Okay, so you do think Urist should be flipped and that the way people acted around the wagon is going to be AI. Cool. I have a decent chance of dying tonight so it's up to you guys to solve the game after Urist flips regardless. I do think you should be considering people like nook in worlds that Urist is mafia, because I think nook is sort of locked into voting his teammate there (very unlikely Urist will survive the day and if nook is caught off-wagon he's a dead man). Same for tutuu to a lesser extent although her behavior today has made me want to townread her more.

[Alison]

@Amy @Alison @MacDougall can u pls reassure me colin couldnt have bussed? if u say "no tutuu, colin lock town" then i will think lock town and wont tinfoil anymore

no tutuu, colin lock town

[Alison]

Actually it makes Carotenoid more town because it's a justification for being on Alison over 112. Carotenoid is just town I think. 112 spew plus this.

Carotte was on me over 112.

[Alison]

Okay so I'm not super on my game since I'm busy with other stuff but I gave it a brief think and I sort of think Urist/TSP is a possible scumteam. Urist made some noise about voting TSP and even offering to go off my wagon to vote him, but reversed that read/folded up the pressure afterwards, which makes me think it can be an attempt at looking unaligned without the actual followthrough. I don't actually think TSP was particularly locked into his read and could easily have shifted wagons, but the most obvious possibility for why he didn't as wolf was that his teammate was already on the Alison wagon and he really didn't want to have the whole scumteam pile on the counterwagon and get instantly POE'd.

[tutuu]

@Amy @Alison @MacDougall can u pls reassure me colin couldnt have bussed? if u say "no tutuu, colin lock town" then i will think lock town and wont tinfoil anymore

no tutuu, colin lock town

okiiii alison-sama

[Amy]

tutuu's v and i have a dumb read to support it

if tutuu is a wolf then the 112 bus wasn't planned - or at least, tutuu wasn't doing so. we would thus expect that 112's death is actually pretty rough on scumteam morale if that's the case

given that, i think w!tutuu in that slot would struggle to respond with such unbridled enthusiasm last night to my suggestion that she'd be fun to work with. i think there'd be a note of melancholy or self-deprecation there, based entirely off my read of tutuu as a person

plus tutuu beating herself up over her reads is absolutely not out of her v range - philosophers postgame is a good example

i will be townshielding tutuu until lylo, please direct all questions/comments/concerns to macdougall

[Amy]

tsp can absolutely be mafia here

I'm hesitant to swap off urist without more time to read and consider, though, so that's maybe a discussion for later tonight, after i take care of some Things

also yeah carotte can be v i think my gut just whiffed there

"amy stop sheeping mac" mac stop being right

[Amy]

trying to figure out how i feel about urist's first reaction being a hard chainsaw onto mac that he only backed down from after mac did

lv1 says it's wolfy

but lv1 says a lot of wrong things

probably needs a reread

[Alison]

my broader point is that even if you think TSP is mafia, Urist can easily be his teammate so I still think Urist is the correct exe for today.

[tutuu]

amy and alison and dizzy are all my moms i have 3 moms

[Alison]

I'm still not sure of Carotte being town either - there was that "112 spew" where she left Carotte out of her reads list but I'm not going to stake the game on it :P

[Amy]

I'm still not sure of Carotte being town either - there was that "112 spew" where she left Carotte out of her reads list but I'm not going to stake the game on it :P

honestly i don't think I've ever seen this tell actually be correct

think it's a thing that people feel like should be true that isn't actually the case

could just be a difference in personal experience tho

[tutuu]

[Amy]

amy and alison and dizzy are all my moms i have 3 moms

frankly this household sounds extremely dysfunctional

[tutuu]

amy and alison and dizzy are all my moms i have 3 moms

frankly this household sounds extremely dysfunctional

nooooo! its great! and im very appreciative of you taking care of me!

[Urist]

Okay so I'm not super on my game since I'm busy with other stuff but I gave it a brief think and I sort of think Urist/TSP is a possible scumteam. Urist made some noise about voting TSP and even offering to go off my wagon to vote him, but reversed that read/folded up the pressure afterwards, which makes me think it can be an attempt at looking unaligned without the actual followthrough. I don't actually think TSP was particularly locked into his read and could easily have shifted wagons, but the most obvious possibility for why he didn't as wolf was that his teammate was already on the Alison wagon and he really didn't want to have the whole scumteam pile on the counterwagon and get instantly POE'd.

Seriously, don't waste your time or energy considering worlds where I flip mafia.

[Alison]

I'm still not sure of Carotte being town either - there was that "112 spew" where she left Carotte out of her reads list but I'm not going to stake the game on it :P

honestly i don't think I've ever seen this tell actually be correct

think it's a thing that people feel like should be true that isn't actually the case

could just be a difference in personal experience tho

I do it all the time as scum which is why I'm skeptical about clearing someone off it. You go "okay, X, Y and Z are town" and then later on belatedly say "oh I guess A exists too, she's town as well". It's an easy way of making you two look slightly unaligned because mafia members don't usually forget the existence of their teammates. Which isn't to say that scum don't actually do this to town, it's to say that it's a very easy to fake interaction, and a fairly commonly faked one too.

[Urist]

my broader point is that even if you think TSP is mafia, Urist can easily be his teammate so I still think Urist is the correct exe for today.

If I were a wolf I would know I'm getting yeeted and would def be distancing here. Therefore if I were mafia, TSP is almost certainly mafia as well. Ergo the correct yeet is TSP.

[ColinIsCool]

Colin's push on 112 is actually more sensible and credible than I was expecting tbh. He provided good reasons for the vote. He also is just obviously not in his scum meta. No offense to Colin but he's a potato when he rands mafia.

Yeah I haven’t had a good scum game in a while. Tbh if there was a game for me to do it in, it’s this one, cause I haven’t had to play catch-up on a bazillion posts and can be more authentic ... but I’m town

[DrWilgy]

Also I hardclaimed cop and got 112

I don't like this concept.

I'd much rather lynch Nanook correctly here and get NK'd for it by tomorrow.