Radiohead Mafia [GAME OVER]

[tutuu]

alright!

[staypositivefriend]

Spoiler: show

Yes I was explicitly notified that I was post capped. I have reason to believe I was hit with another separate negative night action.

I know we have one yeet (though I would like someone to actually very bluntly state how we know this because I'm not entirely sure) hence why I said vig the other one. It does not matter. I am saying that we yeet one of them and it outs the other's alignment even if we pick wrong. The chance of there being not mafia between them is very low because Nanook has chosen to vote for Sprityo essentially thunderdoming him vs. Sprityo. That he acted first is a good look for him, but that he had zero votes on him until I voted there is not so essentially we need to just yeet the scummier one. In my view that's Sprityo.

I think JPIC is literally just mafia anyway regardless. I don't see two town PR going onto me n1. I was not jailkept clearly. I already caught a watch from Hally. I wouldn't have been tracked (probably wasn't copped). I probably was doctored, but it wasn't JPIC or he'd have just claimed that. In actuality him not claiming doc there is probably confirmation that I actually WAS doctored because it's a much safer and more reasonable claim.

Even if I think JPIC is literally mafia, we only have one yeet today and it's better for the gamestate that we flip one of the others because JPIC self resolves if he is somehow real and from my perspective he's not the only one near lock to be mafia, I think Sprityo is also near lock to be mafia.

I think we flip Sprityo. If he flips mafia it essentially clears Nanook. JPIC probably doesn't die even if he's real because the mafia need us to yeet him tomorrow so they will trade him getting another confirm (or out).

Note in the event of my death: If JPIC does not get a cop check tomorrow, gets yeeted and genuinely flips cop, turbo yeet Tim. 100% without questioning this. Tim essentially would be outed by virtue of encouraging the town to bring through a realcop to the next day knowing that said cop isn't going to get a shot off.

i do not agree w/this line of reasoning. we can say with near 100% certainty that JPIC is scum, so we should yeet him. it's that simple. it's a mistake to prioritize mechanics over scumhunting, and mechanics should not influence our votes when we have a near-confirmed scum in our midst

spirit is probably scum too fwiw, i just do not consider this a convincing argument to not lynch JPIC

I don't think anyone has suggested "don't chop JPIC." I have suggested and gotten some agreement for "don't chop JPIC today."

Ultimately we have yet to see any proof that there is extra kill power in the hands of the town. The town seems to be widely convinced that there are three "outed wolves." Without extra kill power it will take through day four just to kill them all. Wolf hunters in this town just way too smart and efficient apparently. That's all fine so long as it is right.

But here's the thing...right or wrong the wolves are not going to NK me for you. Whether town is right or wrong the wolves are not gonna NK Sprityo. But at least if you are wrong about JPIC the wolves might be inclined to help out and save you a mischop there. Don't "prioritize mechanics over scumhunting," but it seems wise to acknowledge that you can't kill the wolves as fast as you currently think you are finding them.

i understand this, but i do consider not chopping JPIC today to be favoring mechanics over scumhunting since the primary argument for not doing it is: "if he is real, the mafia will probably have to kill him".

that argument holds no water for me because i think he's scum, and i would much rather lynch someone i'm confident is scum and let us get more information during the night instead of chopping outside and letting the scum live when we have zero idea what kind of ability he may have. if we have a scum, we should chop it

Sounds good. I think Sprit seems just as likely to be a wolf and just as likely if not more to have a dangerous ability so I'm much more inclined to chop there first and see if JPIC gets sorted before I get to him, but if you only have one wolf to work with you are making the best move for you.

why does spirit seem just as likely to be a wolf as JPIC to you? i do think spirit is scummy and probably a wolf but i consider JPIC borderline confirmed

Because Sprit seems like a good candidate to have post capped Mac of the three people Hally recorded attending the party at Mac's house.

I think if JPIC was "wolf post capper" he would have made a different claim than "alignment cop." I think if Nanook was "wolf post capper" he'd have stayed away from Mac altogether. So Sprityo.

Nothing Sprityo has said about his role, or why he would visit Mac, has done anything to change that. In fact, his "I don't wanna see ten pages..." post kinda supports the idea that he's thinking about post cappy type things.

And I do stand by the idea that in this game "you are a post capper" seems like a very underpowered role to hand some poor wolf. Post cap them one night, get an extra kill by visiting them again seems plausible. That seems worth the risk of visiting Mac. That's why I think he's the better first kill here.

Admittedly, JPIC could be "the post cap killer" and seized on "well I'm caught so best I can do is play to get through one night and make this kill." Claiming alignment cop might be seen as the best one night life pass. But that leaves the question of what Sprityo was doing there? Four people visited Mac. The one that seems most inclined to malice towards Mac is Sprityo. It just seems simplest to take the known malicious act and assign it to the most likely to be malicious person.

these are legitimate points, but i consider them moreso arguments for why spirit is more likely to be the post capper as opposed to arguments for why spirit is more likely to be scum. i don't see a need to specifically search for the post capper today as much as i see a need to search for scum in general - and if im searching for scum in general, then JPIC is the most obvious answer

[Timsup2nothin]

why would nanook have stayed away from mac if he were wolf capper, tim?

PR dodging. If all that power does is post cap somebody, I don't go near anyone who is an obvious possibility for watchering...Mac was. Truth be told if all the power does is post cap somebody I probably just holster and try to stay out of trouble. That's why I think there has to be more to it than just post capping.

Nanook is aware enough about game states that I think a w!Nanook with some sort of two visit kill hits someone lower profile.

[juliets]

[mention]Timsup2nothin[/mention] you say if JPIC were the post capper he would not have claimed cop. Why not? What do you think he would have claimed?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

[tutuu]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

if he wasn't the NK then there is no longer mech conf scum in hally's trio just saying

should still yeet there maybe but

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Was thinking I might be able to draw a NK if I left it looking like I was doc that didn’t want to claim doc but uh

Someone claiming a backed up doc ability with a save on alison makes me think it’s just as likely if not moreso that alison was the NK target and not broseph

[tutuu]

[mention]Master Radishes[/mention] can you consecutively target the same dead person? can you use nutella's medic again?

[Timsup2nothin]

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

i do not agree w/this line of reasoning. we can say with near 100% certainty that JPIC is scum, so we should yeet him. it's that simple. it's a mistake to prioritize mechanics over scumhunting, and mechanics should not influence our votes when we have a near-confirmed scum in our midst

spirit is probably scum too fwiw, i just do not consider this a convincing argument to not lynch JPIC

I don't think anyone has suggested "don't chop JPIC." I have suggested and gotten some agreement for "don't chop JPIC today."

Ultimately we have yet to see any proof that there is extra kill power in the hands of the town. The town seems to be widely convinced that there are three "outed wolves." Without extra kill power it will take through day four just to kill them all. Wolf hunters in this town just way too smart and efficient apparently. That's all fine so long as it is right.

But here's the thing...right or wrong the wolves are not going to NK me for you. Whether town is right or wrong the wolves are not gonna NK Sprityo. But at least if you are wrong about JPIC the wolves might be inclined to help out and save you a mischop there. Don't "prioritize mechanics over scumhunting," but it seems wise to acknowledge that you can't kill the wolves as fast as you currently think you are finding them.

i understand this, but i do consider not chopping JPIC today to be favoring mechanics over scumhunting since the primary argument for not doing it is: "if he is real, the mafia will probably have to kill him".

that argument holds no water for me because i think he's scum, and i would much rather lynch someone i'm confident is scum and let us get more information during the night instead of chopping outside and letting the scum live when we have zero idea what kind of ability he may have. if we have a scum, we should chop it

Sounds good. I think Sprit seems just as likely to be a wolf and just as likely if not more to have a dangerous ability so I'm much more inclined to chop there first and see if JPIC gets sorted before I get to him, but if you only have one wolf to work with you are making the best move for you.

why does spirit seem just as likely to be a wolf as JPIC to you? i do think spirit is scummy and probably a wolf but i consider JPIC borderline confirmed

Because Sprit seems like a good candidate to have post capped Mac of the three people Hally recorded attending the party at Mac's house.

I think if JPIC was "wolf post capper" he would have made a different claim than "alignment cop." I think if Nanook was "wolf post capper" he'd have stayed away from Mac altogether. So Sprityo.

Nothing Sprityo has said about his role, or why he would visit Mac, has done anything to change that. In fact, his "I don't wanna see ten pages..." post kinda supports the idea that he's thinking about post cappy type things.

And I do stand by the idea that in this game "you are a post capper" seems like a very underpowered role to hand some poor wolf. Post cap them one night, get an extra kill by visiting them again seems plausible. That seems worth the risk of visiting Mac. That's why I think he's the better first kill here.

Admittedly, JPIC could be "the post cap killer" and seized on "well I'm caught so best I can do is play to get through one night and make this kill." Claiming alignment cop might be seen as the best one night life pass. But that leaves the question of what Sprityo was doing there? Four people visited Mac. The one that seems most inclined to malice towards Mac is Sprityo. It just seems simplest to take the known malicious act and assign it to the most likely to be malicious person.

these are legitimate points, but i consider them moreso arguments for why spirit is more likely to be the post capper as opposed to arguments for why spirit is more likely to be scum. i don't see a need to specifically search for the post capper today as much as i see a need to search for scum in general - and if im searching for scum in general, then JPIC is the most obvious answer

I have trouble picturing the post capping as a town power. And I have real trouble picturing it as a town power that anyone goes into the teeth with by targeting Mac. All the reasons I would have either holstered or gone somewhere else with that power if I had it as a wolf apply if I had it as town, in spades.

[tutuu]

Spoiler: show

I don't think anyone has suggested "don't chop JPIC." I have suggested and gotten some agreement for "don't chop JPIC today."

Ultimately we have yet to see any proof that there is extra kill power in the hands of the town. The town seems to be widely convinced that there are three "outed wolves." Without extra kill power it will take through day four just to kill them all. Wolf hunters in this town just way too smart and efficient apparently. That's all fine so long as it is right.

But here's the thing...right or wrong the wolves are not going to NK me for you. Whether town is right or wrong the wolves are not gonna NK Sprityo. But at least if you are wrong about JPIC the wolves might be inclined to help out and save you a mischop there. Don't "prioritize mechanics over scumhunting," but it seems wise to acknowledge that you can't kill the wolves as fast as you currently think you are finding them.

i understand this, but i do consider not chopping JPIC today to be favoring mechanics over scumhunting since the primary argument for not doing it is: "if he is real, the mafia will probably have to kill him".

that argument holds no water for me because i think he's scum, and i would much rather lynch someone i'm confident is scum and let us get more information during the night instead of chopping outside and letting the scum live when we have zero idea what kind of ability he may have. if we have a scum, we should chop it

Sounds good. I think Sprit seems just as likely to be a wolf and just as likely if not more to have a dangerous ability so I'm much more inclined to chop there first and see if JPIC gets sorted before I get to him, but if you only have one wolf to work with you are making the best move for you.

why does spirit seem just as likely to be a wolf as JPIC to you? i do think spirit is scummy and probably a wolf but i consider JPIC borderline confirmed

Because Sprit seems like a good candidate to have post capped Mac of the three people Hally recorded attending the party at Mac's house.

I think if JPIC was "wolf post capper" he would have made a different claim than "alignment cop." I think if Nanook was "wolf post capper" he'd have stayed away from Mac altogether. So Sprityo.

Nothing Sprityo has said about his role, or why he would visit Mac, has done anything to change that. In fact, his "I don't wanna see ten pages..." post kinda supports the idea that he's thinking about post cappy type things.

And I do stand by the idea that in this game "you are a post capper" seems like a very underpowered role to hand some poor wolf. Post cap them one night, get an extra kill by visiting them again seems plausible. That seems worth the risk of visiting Mac. That's why I think he's the better first kill here.

Admittedly, JPIC could be "the post cap killer" and seized on "well I'm caught so best I can do is play to get through one night and make this kill." Claiming alignment cop might be seen as the best one night life pass. But that leaves the question of what Sprityo was doing there? Four people visited Mac. The one that seems most inclined to malice towards Mac is Sprityo. It just seems simplest to take the known malicious act and assign it to the most likely to be malicious person.

these are legitimate points, but i consider them moreso arguments for why spirit is more likely to be the post capper as opposed to arguments for why spirit is more likely to be scum. i don't see a need to specifically search for the post capper today as much as i see a need to search for scum in general - and if im searching for scum in general, then JPIC is the most obvious answer

I have trouble picturing the post capping as a town power. And I have real trouble picturing it as a town power that anyone goes into the teeth with by targeting Mac. All the reasons I would have either holstered or gone somewhere else with that power if I had it as a wolf apply if I had it as town, in spades.

how about a town role that does something positive in return of a minor inconvenience - post capping one of the top d1 posters?

[dyachei]

nanook interactions

Spoiler: show

i'm good i guess

who are woofs

I think my list is alison/LC/herm

I don’t remember who the fourth was nutella maybe?

this was the second post after his RNG to make a wolf list. kind of interesting nutella was the one he had a harder time remembering

@nutella is there an MU-ism that amounts to ThEy’Re AvOiDiNg EnGaGeMeNt ??

nothing interactions with nutella. interesting he only pings her.

SPF LOCK TOWN NEVER RECONSIDER

oh no

OH LOOK I FOUND A MAFIA TWO, ITS A TWO FOR ONE

MUCH LIKE A HALF CUP OF LOBSTER BISQUE AND A LOBSTER ROLL

more interactions that don't do anything

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

TAKE YOUR FRENCH ONION SOUP TO THE GRAVE CAUSE WE WONT EAT IT

votes based off it

Uh oh.

Thats 24 more pages than when I last left off. I see Hazelnut is in the lead with votes. Do tell why?

She likes French onion soup

and continues to repeat the same joke as time progresses

I uh

Actually think nutella is >rand town

I don’t super confidently believe it but her treatment of Jules, while kind of shitty, I think comes from town more often than mafia

tried to defend her case on jules

Oh man dya caught us nutella, our plan for me to wait to defend you until you had 11 votes didn’t work, dang, maybe we should just concede now

and is snarky at me specifically because I listed them together. but I think nanook is a bold enough player that this kind of thing doesn't mean as much

I don’t understand why we’re even talking about killing nutella today what

Like obviously it’s correct not to c’mon guys

more defense

I don’t love a tim vote but it’s better than Nutella

and more

Inb4 Nutella flips mafia/rogue with a soup kill

sprit comments

Spoiler: show

I have a genuine townread of Sprit

Someone send help

It’s more than four hours and I’m still townreading sprit, wtf am I supposed to do with this

if spirit is mafia, i think nanook can be too. this read was never explained

i think nanook could easily be with nutella

[Timsup2nothin]

@Timsup2nothin you say if JPIC were the post capper he would not have claimed cop. Why not? What do you think he would have claimed?

Post capper? Some form of protective role with a bad side effect. Something that doesn't immediately draw a night kill and if it doesn't then gets him autochopped. Like, almost anything but alignment cop. There has been some speculation that a mafia role cop, thinking "get close to the truth" maybe claims alignment cop there, and that makes sense...even though I personally see no reason whatever why a mafia role cop targets Mac in the first place. But the jump from 'mafia post capper' to 'claim town cop' is pretty extreme.

[Timsup2nothin]

Spoiler: show

i understand this, but i do consider not chopping JPIC today to be favoring mechanics over scumhunting since the primary argument for not doing it is: "if he is real, the mafia will probably have to kill him".

that argument holds no water for me because i think he's scum, and i would much rather lynch someone i'm confident is scum and let us get more information during the night instead of chopping outside and letting the scum live when we have zero idea what kind of ability he may have. if we have a scum, we should chop it

Sounds good. I think Sprit seems just as likely to be a wolf and just as likely if not more to have a dangerous ability so I'm much more inclined to chop there first and see if JPIC gets sorted before I get to him, but if you only have one wolf to work with you are making the best move for you.

why does spirit seem just as likely to be a wolf as JPIC to you? i do think spirit is scummy and probably a wolf but i consider JPIC borderline confirmed

Because Sprit seems like a good candidate to have post capped Mac of the three people Hally recorded attending the party at Mac's house.

I think if JPIC was "wolf post capper" he would have made a different claim than "alignment cop." I think if Nanook was "wolf post capper" he'd have stayed away from Mac altogether. So Sprityo.

Nothing Sprityo has said about his role, or why he would visit Mac, has done anything to change that. In fact, his "I don't wanna see ten pages..." post kinda supports the idea that he's thinking about post cappy type things.

And I do stand by the idea that in this game "you are a post capper" seems like a very underpowered role to hand some poor wolf. Post cap them one night, get an extra kill by visiting them again seems plausible. That seems worth the risk of visiting Mac. That's why I think he's the better first kill here.

Admittedly, JPIC could be "the post cap killer" and seized on "well I'm caught so best I can do is play to get through one night and make this kill." Claiming alignment cop might be seen as the best one night life pass. But that leaves the question of what Sprityo was doing there? Four people visited Mac. The one that seems most inclined to malice towards Mac is Sprityo. It just seems simplest to take the known malicious act and assign it to the most likely to be malicious person.

these are legitimate points, but i consider them moreso arguments for why spirit is more likely to be the post capper as opposed to arguments for why spirit is more likely to be scum. i don't see a need to specifically search for the post capper today as much as i see a need to search for scum in general - and if im searching for scum in general, then JPIC is the most obvious answer

I have trouble picturing the post capping as a town power. And I have real trouble picturing it as a town power that anyone goes into the teeth with by targeting Mac. All the reasons I would have either holstered or gone somewhere else with that power if I had it as a wolf apply if I had it as town, in spades.

how about a town role that does something positive in return of a minor inconvenience - post capping one of the top d1 posters?

I had that as a strong possibility until everyone involved had had plenty of opportunity to talk. Some sort of protective role with a side effect seems plausible. But imo a town person with a good role that "carries a price" says so. Even if they are barred from flat claiming or info dumping they can get the idea across. No one tried, so I moved away from the town role with side effects concept.

[MacDougall]

Okay so I've realised some more things and I can't really go into too much detail without getting mod-killed but...

If Hally really did watch all three of them onto me, which seems a foregone conclusion. There are at least 2 mafia, maybe even 3 mafia, between Nanook, JPIC, Sprityo and Tim. I won't go into detail why Tim is in this group.

I know this isn't groundbreaking given the state of the POE and the game, but it IS groundbreaking in the sense that it means that town should just not waver from yeeting through these four in order/rain town PR onto them regardless of if we flip a town along the way. Stay the course. Please do not forget I said this and come out tomorrow after we choose wrong today and I flip tinfoiling onto SPF or some dumb shit. There is literally never less than two mafia in this group of four. There is never more than two town. I believe the most likely scenario is that it is actually three mafia, or two mafia and a rogue.

Also, since mafia put PR on me (post capper), it's very likely that I didn't have mafia KP on me. It is POSSIBLE that I had rogue KP on me though. But I think I had TWO mafia PR on me that were not KP in which case for there to also be rogue KP on me means I would have died (because only three people targeted me not including Hally, so there would be no protection against Rogue KP). So I don't think I had rogue KP on me. So I think that one of the three that targeted me probably targeted me with a town role. Of the four JPIC has hard claimed a strong investigative role which is just incredibly likely fake. Sprityo has claimed that he is allowed to infodump as has Tim. Only Nook has held his claim in a way that vibes with my understanding of how Sloonei is managing infodumping and roleclaiming.

Sprityo and JPIC both have major mafia equitty. But given JPIC has claimed cop we simply have to yeet Sprityo first.

Here are my rules. Flip Sprityo first. If he flips mafia assume Nook is town. If JPIC comes out with a green (or a really bad/unlikely red check infoyeet him). Only let JPIC target inside the POE. Only yeet Nook if Sprityo is town. Once you solve through these players always go Tim next regardless of what happened because I believe he is just mafia in all worlds, particularly a world where JPIC flips town.

[mention]Justplayingitcool[/mention] if you do survive today you are to check between the below players only. Do not reveal who you are checking. If you survive the night and out a check on anyone who isn't one of these three you are to be YEETED WITHOUT QUESTION.

Tutuu
Master Radishes
SPF

That is because these are names that have genuine potential to be deepwolfing and we have no mech on. We need mech on them. I'd personally rather put PC on here than SPF but it seems more people are scumreading SPF so it's better for thread health if we get mech on SPF than PC. Herm is not on here because I don't think Herm is a risk to endgame if they are mafia. I think we are going to yeet them at some point unless town wins earlier than we need to.

tl;dr

Tim is 99% mafia. Never let him survive this game. Ever.
JPIC is 95% likely to be mafia. Only let him survive if he outs a red check on one of the three names I've forced him to check in.
Sprityo is 95% likely to be mafia. He is only town in the world where Nook and JPIC are both mafia.
Nook is only mafia if at least one of the other three flips town, and lock mafia if two do. If there are two mafia between Tim/JPIC and Sprityo, Nook is cleared fmpov.
I really, really would prefer that we yeet Tim or Sprityo today over JPIC. I believe that it is always optimal no matter how batshit crazy JPIC's claim seems because I think they are both just as scummy as he is. The fact that he has a batshit crazy claim doesn't matter when he self resolves and they do not self resolve. FMPOV those three players are essentially equally likely to flip mafia (Tim slightly more likely), so JPIC gets to go last because he had the balls to claim Cop.

Please bookmark this post and use it as a guide in the following days please please please please.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

interesting he only pings her.

It’s a sort of ongoing joke between us where she says some MU-ism, I ask what it means, she tells me, then I make a snide comment about how useless it is.

[staypositivefriend]

nanook's claim is almost definitely a scum claim but i cant articulate why

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

nanook's claim is almost definitely a scum claim but i cant articulate why

If I were scum I’d just hold the no claim or claim doc kek

I also wouldn’t be targeting joe to begin with in all likelihood unless I had a fake claim prepared, I am extremely aware of tracking/watching possibilities when mafia

[staypositivefriend]

nanook's claim is almost definitely a scum claim but i cant articulate why

If I were scum I’d just hold the no claim or claim doc kek

I also wouldn’t be targeting joe to begin with in all likelihood unless I had a fake claim prepared, I am extremely aware of tracking/watching possibilities when mafia

im just skeptical you would even be allowed to claim

[Timsup2nothin]

nanook interactions

Spoiler: show

i'm good i guess

who are woofs

I think my list is alison/LC/herm

I don’t remember who the fourth was nutella maybe?

this was the second post after his RNG to make a wolf list. kind of interesting nutella was the one he had a harder time remembering

@nutella is there an MU-ism that amounts to ThEy’Re AvOiDiNg EnGaGeMeNt ??

nothing interactions with nutella. interesting he only pings her.

SPF LOCK TOWN NEVER RECONSIDER

oh no

OH LOOK I FOUND A MAFIA TWO, ITS A TWO FOR ONE

MUCH LIKE A HALF CUP OF LOBSTER BISQUE AND A LOBSTER ROLL

more interactions that don't do anything

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

TAKE YOUR FRENCH ONION SOUP TO THE GRAVE CAUSE WE WONT EAT IT

votes based off it

Uh oh.

Thats 24 more pages than when I last left off. I see Hazelnut is in the lead with votes. Do tell why?

She likes French onion soup

and continues to repeat the same joke as time progresses

I uh

Actually think nutella is >rand town

I don’t super confidently believe it but her treatment of Jules, while kind of shitty, I think comes from town more often than mafia

tried to defend her case on jules

Oh man dya caught us nutella, our plan for me to wait to defend you until you had 11 votes didn’t work, dang, maybe we should just concede now

and is snarky at me specifically because I listed them together. but I think nanook is a bold enough player that this kind of thing doesn't mean as much

I don’t understand why we’re even talking about killing nutella today what

Like obviously it’s correct not to c’mon guys

more defense

I don’t love a tim vote but it’s better than Nutella

and more

Inb4 Nutella flips mafia/rogue with a soup kill

sprit comments

Spoiler: show

I have a genuine townread of Sprit

Someone send help

It’s more than four hours and I’m still townreading sprit, wtf am I supposed to do with this

if spirit is mafia, i think nanook can be too. this read was never explained

i think nanook could easily be with nutella

I think some "defense of Nutella" may just be buy in on the mechanics of dealing with a doc claim. Can't really say let him off that hook since plenty of people have me as "lock wolf, never rescind" for basically the same thing, but it is a consideration.

Seems pretty clear to me there is one wolf in JPIC, Nanook, and Sprit...some sort of post capper leading to...I dunno what. Bsed off day one interactions with Mac it seems to me the most likely candidate to be there doing him harm is Sprityo.

[MacDougall]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

if he wasn't the NK then there is no longer mech conf scum in hally's trio just saying

should still yeet there maybe but

This is false. I was specifically hit with a negative night action with potentially TWO negative night actions. I am 100% not the NK target because mafia won't put PR AND a NK on me. They put a post cap PR on me.

From anyone's perspective but mine there is always at least one mafia between the three caught visiting me.

The only world in which you think that there is no mafia in the three is the world in which I am lying about being post capped or you think the post capper is a townie.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

nanook's claim is almost definitely a scum claim but i cant articulate why

If I were scum I’d just hold the no claim or claim doc kek

I also wouldn’t be targeting joe to begin with in all likelihood unless I had a fake claim prepared, I am extremely aware of tracking/watching possibilities when mafia

im just skeptical you would even be allowed to claim

What

Why wouldn’t I?

[dyachei]

spirit doesn't even mention nutella beyond this:

Applejacks:
DrWilgy
dyachei
Justplayingitcool
MacDougall
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Poison Chan

Bran Flakes:
Alison
Samusamu
nutella
Juliets
ColinIsCool
Long Con
Oddmerta
staypositivefriend
tedxtr
Timsup2nothin
tutuu
Master Radishes
Dyslexicon
Hally
Herm

I think everyone has posts so I can at the least take out everyone listed as Applejacks. Im gonna OMGUS Alison until i prove to myself she doesnt deserve it. Everyone else is Bran Flakes

[staypositivefriend]

nanook's claim is almost definitely a scum claim but i cant articulate why

If I were scum I’d just hold the no claim or claim doc kek

I also wouldn’t be targeting joe to begin with in all likelihood unless I had a fake claim prepared, I am extremely aware of tracking/watching possibilities when mafia

im just skeptical you would even be allowed to claim

What

Why wouldn’t I?

not sure how much i can speculate about who's allowed to claim what but your roleclaim isnt the type of role i would expect people to be able to claim based on what we've seen in the thread so far

[dyachei]

JPIC on nutella

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: herm] aubergine

why do people townread this again?

Nutella, why did you vote for Herm over me or Juliets? Looks like you scumread us more based off your prior reads list.

Ok back to bed. I trust the game will be solved upon my arrival

i kind of like this question to nutella but he didnt really follow up with it

not really sure why people are focused on rogue right now

jpic what are your reads?

I have Samu and Tutuu as top town.
sprityo, Alison and mac a tier below

Why is Nutella being scumread? I am not particularly townreading her even, but the fact that she is gathered 9 votes then her team is slanking if she is a wolf. There’s no other counterwagon that I can see

But here's the rub. Like others before me have said, if she is wolf where are her teammates? There have been plenty of opportunities to run up a wagon on someone else. Did they give up early and are bussing her or voting on off wagons? It just doesn't feel right and that's a concern I have, though I still read her as scummy. I will vote her for now but read some other folks that I have null reads on and evaluate them.

It could just be that the wolves have zero control of the gamestate right now if Nutella is a wolf

kind of like questioning the game state and what it means. [mention]Justplayingitcool[/mention] what conclusions have you come to since nutella was a wolf?

idk it's not a lot, but it looks better than nanook and spirit

[dyachei]

[mention]Hally[/mention] thoughts on what I've posted about mac's visitors?

[Timsup2nothin]

Okay so I've realised some more things and I can't really go into too much detail without getting mod-killed but...

If Hally really did watch all three of them onto me, which seems a foregone conclusion. There are at least 2 mafia, maybe even 3 mafia, between Nanook, JPIC, Sprityo and Tim. I won't go into detail why Tim is in this group.

I know this isn't groundbreaking given the state of the POE and the game, but it IS groundbreaking in the sense that it means that town should just not waver from yeeting through these four in order/rain town PR onto them regardless of if we flip a town along the way. Stay the course. Please do not forget I said this and come out tomorrow after we choose wrong today and I flip tinfoiling onto SPF or some dumb shit. There is literally never less than two mafia in this group of four. There is never more than two town. I believe the most likely scenario is that it is actually three mafia, or two mafia and a rogue.

Also, since mafia put PR on me (post capper), it's very likely that I didn't have mafia KP on me. It is POSSIBLE that I had rogue KP on me though. But I think I had TWO mafia PR on me that were not KP in which case for there to also be rogue KP on me means I would have died (because only three people targeted me not including Hally, so there would be no protection against Rogue KP). So I don't think I had rogue KP on me. So I think that one of the three that targeted me probably targeted me with a town role. Of the four JPIC has hard claimed a strong investigative role which is just incredibly likely fake. Sprityo has claimed that he is allowed to infodump as has Tim. Only Nook has held his claim in a way that vibes with my understanding of how Sloonei is managing infodumping and roleclaiming.

Sprityo and JPIC both have major mafia equitty. But given JPIC has claimed cop we simply have to yeet Sprityo first.

Here are my rules. Flip Sprityo first. If he flips mafia assume Nook is town. If JPIC comes out with a green (or a really bad/unlikely red check infoyeet him). Only let JPIC target inside the POE. Only yeet Nook if Sprityo is town. Once you solve through these players always go Tim next regardless of what happened because I believe he is just mafia in all worlds, particularly a world where JPIC flips town.

@Justplayingitcool if you do survive today you are to check between the below players only. Do not reveal who you are checking. If you survive the night and out a check on anyone who isn't one of these three you are to be YEETED WITHOUT QUESTION.

Tutuu
Master Radishes
SPF

That is because these are names that have genuine potential to be deepwolfing and we have no mech on. We need mech on them. I'd personally rather put PC on here than SPF but it seems more people are scumreading SPF so it's better for thread health if we get mech on SPF than PC. Herm is not on here because I don't think Herm is a risk to endgame if they are mafia. I think we are going to yeet them at some point unless town wins earlier than we need to.

tl;dr

Tim is 99% mafia. Never let him survive this game. Ever.
JPIC is 95% likely to be mafia. Only let him survive if he outs a red check on one of the three names I've forced him to check in.
Sprityo is 95% likely to be mafia. He is only town in the world where Nook and JPIC are both mafia.
Nook is only mafia if at least one of the other three flips town, and lock mafia if two do. If there are two mafia between Tim/JPIC and Sprityo, Nook is cleared fmpov.
I really, really would prefer that we yeet Tim or Sprityo today over JPIC. I believe that it is always optimal no matter how batshit crazy JPIC's claim seems because I think they are both just as scummy as he is. The fact that he has a batshit crazy claim doesn't matter when he self resolves and they do not self resolve. FMPOV those three players are essentially equally likely to flip mafia (Tim slightly more likely), so JPIC gets to go last because he had the balls to claim Cop.

Please bookmark this post and use it as a guide in the following days please please please please.

Some things I strongly agree with, a couple that I don't.

One, the "Tim is always mafia" I actually just know is wrong. I also find the argument weak. Should I be suspect? Absolutely. I bought into a bad claim and protected a wolf. That has consequences. But I'm not the first town ever to have done that so this "everything he says is wolf" confbiasing is weak. Not important, just sayin'.

Two, I do not see two non-killing wolves just stopping by Mac's house to party. There was a really good chance for Mac to draw watching. A really good power like a two visit kill...risk getting seen maybe. Two wolves risking being seen? Nah. Kill a wolf among JPIC, Sprit, and Nanook, ABSOLUTELY. If it takes killing all three of them to find the wolf that sux, but yes gotta see that through. The whole "all the wolves came for me" self aggrandizement is just ego.

Three, I dunno what's up with the third party, but I kinda tilt away from them wanting to fly straight into the teeth of very likely surveillance right out the gate N1.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

nanook's claim is almost definitely a scum claim but i cant articulate why

If I were scum I’d just hold the no claim or claim doc kek

I also wouldn’t be targeting joe to begin with in all likelihood unless I had a fake claim prepared, I am extremely aware of tracking/watching possibilities when mafia

im just skeptical you would even be allowed to claim

What

Why wouldn’t I?

not sure how much i can speculate about who's allowed to claim what but your roleclaim isnt the type of role i would expect people to be able to claim based on what we've seen in the thread so far

Oh lmao I thought you meant “by my team” not “by the GM”

I’m allowed to claim AFAIK nothing in my role that says I can’t

[TonyStarkPrime]

nanook's claim good

[tutuu]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

if he wasn't the NK then there is no longer mech conf scum in hally's trio just saying

should still yeet there maybe but

This is false. I was specifically hit with a negative night action with potentially TWO negative night actions. I am 100% not the NK target because mafia won't put PR AND a NK on me. They put a post cap PR on me.

From anyone's perspective but mine there is always at least one mafia between the three caught visiting me.

The only world in which you think that there is no mafia in the three is the world in which I am lying about being post capped or you think the post capper is a townie.

mafia having a post capper role is just silly to me. "let me go ahead and minorly inconvenience this guy, and risk myself getting tracked/watched to visit him hehehe im so smart hehehe"

[Timsup2nothin]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

if he wasn't the NK then there is no longer mech conf scum in hally's trio just saying

should still yeet there maybe but

This is false. I was specifically hit with a negative night action with potentially TWO negative night actions. I am 100% not the NK target because mafia won't put PR AND a NK on me. They put a post cap PR on me.

From anyone's perspective but mine there is always at least one mafia between the three caught visiting me.

The only world in which you think that there is no mafia in the three is the world in which I am lying about being post capped or you think the post capper is a townie.

mafia having a post capper role is just silly to me. "let me go ahead and minorly inconvenience this guy, and risk myself getting tracked/watched to visit him hehehe im so smart hehehe"

Whatever that role is I think it just HAS to be two parts...and if they visit Mac again Mac is gonna be dead.

[tutuu]

yea it has 2 parts and i guess it could be evil sure. but the post cap part is irrelevant imo. just a requirement for something

[MacDougall]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

if he wasn't the NK then there is no longer mech conf scum in hally's trio just saying

should still yeet there maybe but

This is false. I was specifically hit with a negative night action with potentially TWO negative night actions. I am 100% not the NK target because mafia won't put PR AND a NK on me. They put a post cap PR on me.

From anyone's perspective but mine there is always at least one mafia between the three caught visiting me.

The only world in which you think that there is no mafia in the three is the world in which I am lying about being post capped or you think the post capper is a townie.

mafia having a post capper role is just silly to me. "let me go ahead and minorly inconvenience this guy, and risk myself getting tracked/watched to visit him hehehe im so smart hehehe"

Mafia post restriction roles are not at all uncommon. You are reaching to make it seem dumber than it is. What would be dumb is if we have two town players who've targeted me out of suspicion. There is no way the function that has restricted my posting came from a town source. There is always mafia in those that visited me. It is empirical.

[Timsup2nothin]

nanook's claim good

Maybe. I'd be inclined to holster that rather than trying for just a one time extra vote. "Try to visit the NK" is just ASKING to be witnessed at a crime scene and cause confusion for town and heartache for yourself. I would have expected Nanook to know better than to play into that, honestly.

[Hally]

@Hally are you satisfied with what Nanook has claimed?

so like, if jpic or sprit are scum, nanook is probably town. if they’re somehow both town nook is probably scum because i don’t believe all three of them would be town

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

It’s every night not one shot

[Hally]

@Oddmerta what's your beef with spf?

Probs a deepwolf, I'll have a hard time proving that one

lmfao

oddmerta is an achro alt

[MacDougall]

There are at least 2 mafia, maybe even 3 mafia, between Nanook, JPIC, Sprityo and Tim. I won't go into detail why Tim is in this group.

Just trust me.

[Hally]

How did i get to 10 votes

it’s a deep mystery

[Timsup2nothin]

It’s every night not one shot

The reward is one shot though, right? You guess right on the NK to get an extra vote the next day. So every night you are forced to risk causing confusion for town watchers and heartache for yourself by trying to show up at a crime scene, and if you do actually happen to show up at the crime scene you get this trivial reward. I'd just holster that, myself.

[Timsup2nothin]

@Oddmerta what's your beef with spf?

Probs a deepwolf, I'll have a hard time proving that one

lmfao

oddmerta is an achro alt

That would explain a lot.

[Hally]

she does vote spf, but not really sure that spews spf? she doesn't stay there (goes back to jules instead)

i think spf is spewed more by her treatment of nut than by nuts treatments of her, though both are good looks imo

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

It’s every night not one shot

The reward is one shot though, right? You guess right on the NK to get an extra vote the next day. So every night you are forced to risk causing confusion for town watchers and heartache for yourself by trying to show up at a crime scene, and if you do actually happen to show up at the crime scene you get this trivial reward. I'd just holster that, myself.

Oh, yeah, I get what you’re saying. Yeah it’s just an extra vote the next day I think

And naw man, if a GM gives me a toy I’m galmost always onna use it.

[dyachei]

It’s every night not one shot

The reward is one shot though, right? You guess right on the NK to get an extra vote the next day. So every night you are forced to risk causing confusion for town watchers and heartache for yourself by trying to show up at a crime scene, and if you do actually happen to show up at the crime scene you get this trivial reward. I'd just holster that, myself.

Oh, yeah, I get what you’re saying. Yeah it’s just an extra vote the next day I think

And naw man, if a GM gives me a toy I’m galmost always onna use it.

a shroop in the wild!

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I can’t express how disappointed I am in myself that I know what shroop means

[Hally]

tldr from earlier post:

lines i think are hedgy / indicative of maybe w/w

"but hey, maybe that's just your playstyle, since i've never actually played w/you until now"

"im getting the sense that your playstyle is just something im gonna be paranoid about tbh"

"nutella - this might just be a playstyle difference but i have not loved her reads or her tone yet. a lot of her posts feel hedgy. i don't always see how she goes from point a to point b in her reads. eh. gth scum"

"also pretty wacky that you join a counterwagon that already has 2 votes when there's four votes on you"

"I....thought I did? but maybe I'm mixing up your gth post with a different catchup post that I disliked first and never specified disliking the gth one as well" (from nutella)

"do you have any specific grievances with those posts other than feeling that they are "manufactured"? i don't want to lock myself into a push against you if you are town but i cant really do all that much with vague reads like that"

"every time i try to genuinely read nutella she outs another bad read like "spf and juliets are mafia" and ive lost the sympathy i had for her" (felt a bit over the top for me)

being hedgy is not really scum indicative for spf ime

[dyachei]

I can’t express how disappointed I am in myself that I know what shroop means

if it's any consolation, I'm disappointed in you, too

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I can’t express how disappointed I am in myself that I know what shroop means

if it's any consolation, I'm disappointed in you, too

Thanks I appreciate it

[Hally]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

this is a weird role

[tutuu]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

if he wasn't the NK then there is no longer mech conf scum in hally's trio just saying

should still yeet there maybe but

This is false. I was specifically hit with a negative night action with potentially TWO negative night actions. I am 100% not the NK target because mafia won't put PR AND a NK on me. They put a post cap PR on me.

From anyone's perspective but mine there is always at least one mafia between the three caught visiting me.

The only world in which you think that there is no mafia in the three is the world in which I am lying about being post capped or you think the post capper is a townie.

mafia having a post capper role is just silly to me. "let me go ahead and minorly inconvenience this guy, and risk myself getting tracked/watched to visit him hehehe im so smart hehehe"

Mafia post restriction roles are not at all uncommon. You are reaching to make it seem dumber than it is. What would be dumb is if we have two town players who've targeted me out of suspicion. There is no way the function that has restricted my posting came from a town source. There is always mafia in those that visited me. It is empirical.

there always being mafia in those who target u doesnt mean the post capper is mafia necessarily. im not reaching when considering the post cap is a negative utility side affect thats NAI by itself

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I don’t think broseph was the NK anymore so I don’t think my refusing to claim has utility at this point

If I target the NK I get an extra vote the next day

this is a weird role

Yeh dude