Avatar The Last Airbender Mafia postgame

[PSINightmareEmpower]

Nooo Nutellaaaaa!!! I will avenge you!!!!!

Welp. We were a nice town bloc while it lasted. *salute*

---

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

I think this is pretty obvious. If Marcher flips scum we go after Neutron next. If Marcher flips town...Neutron could still be scum, but we also look at Cass, LC, and Dov. (Worth noting that unless Dov does something super townie by the time we get around to him, he's still probably going to get chopped at some point.)

I will say that I am currently very uncomfortable with the Cass wagon. It feels too...easy? Does anyone even have a legitimate case on them? It still feels like universal scumread is the only reason. I'm not seeing any real reason to scumread them right now. I do want to do an ISO, but I'm not sure I'll really find anything there.

What do we think about Jack getting burned? If it's a mafia poisoner, we can basically consider him clear, but I don't know if there would ever be a town-sided poisoner-type role.

Also, does the presence of an indie get announced by the host of every game? As in, do we know there almost certainly isn't one since Nanook didn't mention it, or is it like on Starmen where you can basically expect at least one per game?

[Alison]

Lol, good shade Cass.

As if that's my main contribution.

Hi Wilgy. Thoughts on Marcher?

[Alison]

Whoever scumreads PSI still, air your concerns now. I have a strong townread on them and so did nutella iirc. One of us is consensus town and the other is a flipped doctor. So unless you think we're both awful at reading people, you should lend weight to those opinions.

I think I'm upgrading cassowary to scumlean territory, from naked scum territory. They've had a very unimpressive ISO, but as PSI correctly points out, there's no strong case against them (as opposed to the much stronger cases against Neutron and Jovian). They also seem like a very lonely player right now. If they are scum, where is the counterwagon attempt from their teammates? I trust DDL so I don't think the Neutron wagon is a distraction from catching scum!Cassowary, and since nutella is a flipped doctor I obviously don't think poorly of the Jovian wagon either.

The thing about the Jovian wagon is that they're an albatross hanging around their neck. We cannot let that slot live to ExLo. If they're scum we should execute them way before ExLo, and if they're town, it's going to be too hard to make the right call with them hanging around. Frankly, if they're town, they have to accept that they're not long for this world one way or another.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Don't trust me that much I'm not that good at reading people.

Like, trust my intentions but have your own reads too.

I thought cass felt weird yesterday and I still do. I just disliked some people who voted for her yesterday more.

In any case, unless DJ and Jovian can provide better explanations for their actions that what they have so far, I'll be voting for one of them.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

That kill clears me, I'd always bring over the thunderdome an extra day there.

X to doubt.

There’s massive wifom there.

Nah like I would /never/ make that kill, cuz I have first-hand experience in pretty much that exact situation.
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... =27&t=1906
Pyre mafia was a game I played not long ago on this site. In that game, like this one, I came under pretty heavy fire early on, getting hard tunneled by 2 players and facing general sus starting d1 and n1. We didn't kill any of the people sussing me. We killed tutuu, who was broadly townread and probably never gonna get mischopped. Then, over the next day, we started to maneuver. Lissa got into bussing position and pocketed town leader Zack, and managed to ride that pocket and dodge virtually any suspicion til we outed at endgame. I posted a bunch on d2, and ended up collecting a townshield from Sloonei. Turns out it's a real hamper to your ability to solve when you were caught defending a flipped wolf. On d3 I finally died, but i caused so much chaos at eod that I got the townie TSP caught up in it and looking bad, and he flipped right after me despite having another partner that had been run up to be a major wagon every single day previously. Sure I died, but after my death I left behind a mindfield that made it impossible for town to solve. It worked beautifully.

Like in this situation, I'd just kill cayvie and watch her shout from dvc as I pull off the exact same trick all over again. Guaranteed Town/Wolf wagons are an absolute godsend in this scenario because it lets you know exactly what's gonna happen the next day. As a wolf team, this is the time when your advantage of tmi is strongest. You basically get a stranglehold on the game, you know exactly what you need to do to maximize cred, and as the wolf taking the fall you just catch onto any townies starting to be wrong and just make sure that they are punished hard for not having tmi and that the next days well be suffering and solveless as town starts killing itself.
[VOTE: cass] aubergine

Have you heard of the term WIFOM?

Any claim of what one would do if they were scum is worthless and doesn't serve as proof of anything.

[Alison]

Don't trust me that much I'm not that good at reading people.

Like, trust my intentions but have your own reads too.

I thought cass felt weird yesterday and I still do. I just disliked some people who voted for her yesterday more.

In any case, unless DJ and Jovian can provide better explanations for their actions that what they have so far, I'll be voting for one of them.

Read my post again - I'm not saying your read is correct, I'm saying you're town and therefore your wagon is not an attempt to lead town away from cassowary.

[Alison]

Like in this situation, I'd just kill cayvie and watch her shout from dvc as I pull off the exact same trick all over again.

Also I want to point out that I don't actually believe this is true and it sounds like something you made up to support your narrative. On a purely mechanical level, it makes more sense to kill me and cayvie, because I'm being townread a lot more than cayvie and cayvie isn't particularly dangerous to your stated "what I'd do if I was scum here" plan.

The other issue here, I think, is that if you were scum you'd have teammates. Your plan is long and detailed, but it's also very specific and based on your specific experience in Pyre Mafia. It is not out of the question, to me, that you may have proposed such a thing in mafia chat, and your teammates shot it down or outvoted you because they felt too threatened by nutella's ability to get you executed the next day, perhaps even telling you to bring that narrative up as a reason why you would never make the nutella kill.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Oh yeah sorry about that.

I'm just really paranoid at leading people into wagons, I did that recently and lost a game (though town was already losing hard when I replaced in so I just failed to fix it)

Granted I did it last night but the crux was that I didn't like the current wagons so I thought it was worth the risk. In general I'd rather take slow and logical.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I always believe scum's main goal is to get rid of townies they can't yeet.

Trying to tailor their kills to make town think X or Y is ill advised because WIFOM goes both ways, so they can't prove anything with a kill.

Nutella was being townread by a lot of people and was forming a towncore with some. In fact I was mostly mindmelding with her and we were doing good teamwork. If their goal was to damage town, they accomplished that by killing her.

[Alison]

Neutron can be town or scum if Jovian is scum. I could see Jovian's actions towards Neutron as either whiteknighting a player they know is town, or defending a scumbuddy. But I can't see Jovian as anything but scum if Neutron is scum. It is too coincidental to me to see a player subbing into a scumread slot, thunderdoming the doctor and then protecting a flipped wolf as anything other than naked scum.

Therefore I gave some thought to whether it's game-theoretically correct to execute Neutron before Jovian if we think Neutron has independently high scum equity, as a red flip from Neutron will give us greater confidence in our Jovian wagon. On the other hand, unless something changes, Jovian is going to be a leading wagon regardless of Neutron's alignment, so it's unclear to me if the extra certainty is worth anything.

I eventually decided that we're probably going to exe Jovian D3 regardless of Neutron's flip, so we should just vote them first because they have independently higher scum equity. The speed and specificity of their "I would never do this as wolf" defense also bugged me a little bit - it felt sort of forced out, like it was prepared in scumchat beforehand and peddled to us the moment nutella flipped.

So yeah, I'm still aboard the Jovian wagon today.

linki: I think if scum's focus was on killing people they couldn't exe, they would have killed me N1. Either nutella slipped as doctor and we all missed it except a mafia member, or scum felt especially threatened by her reads. This is why I think the nutella kill most strongly implicates Jovian.

[cayvie]

Neutron can be town or scum if Jovian is scum. I could see Jovian's actions towards Neutron as either whiteknighting a player they know is town, or defending a scumbuddy. But I can't see Jovian as anything but scum if Neutron is scum. It is too coincidental to me to see a player subbing into a scumread slot, thunderdoming the doctor and then protecting a flipped wolf as anything other than naked scum.

Therefore I gave some thought to whether it's game-theoretically correct to execute Neutron before Jovian if we think Neutron has independently high scum equity, as a red flip from Neutron will give us greater confidence in our Jovian wagon. On the other hand, unless something changes, Jovian is going to be a leading wagon regardless of Neutron's alignment, so it's unclear to me if the extra certainty is worth anything.

I eventually decided that we're probably going to exe Jovian D3 regardless of Neutron's flip, so we should just vote them first because they have independently higher scum equity. The speed and specificity of their "I would never do this as wolf" defense also bugged me a little bit - it felt sort of forced out, like it was prepared in scumchat beforehand and peddled to us the moment nutella flipped.

So yeah, I'm still aboard the Jovian wagon today.

linki: I think if scum's focus was on killing people they couldn't exe, they would have killed me N1. Either nutella slipped as doctor and we all missed it except a mafia member, or scum felt especially threatened by her reads. This is why I think the nutella kill most strongly implicates Jovian.

yeah i can't really see myself chopping anyone else today. the number of mafia between DJ and MJ isn't going to change based on what order we chop people in. the benefit of a DJ chop would be, if DJ flips wolf, we flip MJ next. of course, if MJ flips town, we can effectively clear DJ by the same logic. (the premise that wolf!DJ and town!MJ is not a world)

[Marcher Jovian]

Claiming Suki, one-shot gladiator. Once per game, at least 15 minutes before eod, I can choose a player. Any votes not on me or that player do not count for the purpose of elimination.

[Alison]

Claiming Suki, one-shot gladiator. Once per game, at least 15 minutes before eod, I can choose a player. Any votes not on me or that player do not count for the purpose of elimination.

If you gladiate someone, will it be announced, or clearly indicated in any way (eg. nanook clearly telling us that any votes not on you or X will not be counted)? Check with nanook if you're unsure.

[cayvie]

huh on a reread of the rules, claims are weird this game. the first line of the first post reads

"This is a 17 player game with a number of power roles. These roles were assigned alignment-blind."

which implies to me that people's roles tell you nothing about their alignment. like katara could have been a mafia doctor if the rand had gone differently.

[cassowary]

I actually noticed that as well cayvie. I'm wondering if I'm interpreting that correctly. I messaged nanook about it to ask for clarification just a bit ago but no response yet.

But like... what if the poisoner and the doc who heals poison were on the same team...

Also maybe this means we shouldn't trust alison so much just on the basis of 'role seems unlikely to be assigned to mafia' lol

[cayvie]

But like... what if the poisoner and the doc who heals poison were on the same team...

how do you know they're not?

[cassowary]

I... don't? I was talking more from the perspective of designing the setup, but yeah, it is possible we're living in that universe.

[PSINightmareEmpower]

Worth noting that Gladiator works on both factions (in fact, on Starmen we had a mafia-aligned Gladiator who claimed to be town) so even if Marcher proves their ability it doesn't clear them. Ergo, I will still be voting for them even if they use their ability.

[cassowary]

Update: nanook replied to me and apparently it's correct that the doctor (eg) could have been mafia had the rolls worked out differently.

So this changes how we should think about roleclaims for sure I think. Roles and flavor might match up (given Katara's powers in the show this seems likely) but that won't tell us anything about alignment.

Worth noting that Gladiator works on both factions (in fact, on Starmen we had a mafia-aligned Gladiator who claimed to be town) so even if Marcher proves their ability it doesn't clear them. Ergo, I will still be voting for them even if they use their ability.

And PSI is correct here, but this logic actually applies to all roles.

[Marcher Jovian]

Claiming Suki, one-shot gladiator. Once per game, at least 15 minutes before eod, I can choose a player. Any votes not on me or that player do not count for the purpose of elimination.

If you gladiate someone, will it be announced, or clearly indicated in any way (eg. nanook clearly telling us that any votes not on you or X will not be counted)? Check with nanook if you're unsure.

public announcement, yep

[Alison]

Oh, that sucks. If roles weren't alignment-blind I would have asked Jovian to gladiator Neutron. Actually, maybe Jovian should gladiator Neutron anyway. If they're W/W then obviously the result is great (you can only vote wolves, so a wolf will definitely die!) and if they're V/W then the wolves have to make a very very difficult choice (and probably even if we exe the villager, the wolf gets outed by difference check).

[Marcher Jovian]

Oh, that sucks. If roles weren't alignment-blind I would have asked Jovian to gladiator Neutron. Actually, maybe Jovian should gladiator Neutron anyway. If they're W/W then obviously the result is great (you can only vote wolves, so a wolf will definitely die!) and if they're V/W then the wolves have to make a very very difficult choice (and probably even if we exe the villager, the wolf gets outed by difference check).

I do not see the point of this plan

[Alison]

Oh, that sucks. If roles weren't alignment-blind I would have asked Jovian to gladiator Neutron. Actually, maybe Jovian should gladiator Neutron anyway. If they're W/W then obviously the result is great (you can only vote wolves, so a wolf will definitely die!) and if they're V/W then the wolves have to make a very very difficult choice (and probably even if we exe the villager, the wolf gets outed by difference check).

I do not see the point of this plan

You and Neutron have the most scum equity. I find it difficult to imagine that you're both villagers. Therefore, I will have you gladiate Neutron. If one of you is a villager and the other is a wolf, then the wolves are forced to make a rather difficult choice. If they support their teammate, then they will have heavy suspicion cast on them when the flip happens. But if they support the villager, then their teammate is doomed to die. Either result is quite good in my book. By gladiating Neutron, you remove the possibility of wolves being able to hide on vanity wagons and such to "stay flexible" until they can decide who it is more convenient to support.

By narrowing down the field to two participants, we can also do the popcorn style voting system where we ask the scummiest players in the game to vote first followed by the next-second scummiest, with the towniest players voting last. This means that the choice is even more difficult because they have to vote blindly without knowing how the rest of the town is going to vote.

[Alison]

In any case, it seems clear to me that you are not going to make good use of your ability outside of the case I specified earlier. Therefore, unless anyone has a compelling argument why we should not, I will ask you to use your ability on DJ Neutron.

[PSINightmareEmpower]

In any case, it seems clear to me that you are not going to make good use of your ability outside of the case I specified earlier. Therefore, unless anyone has a compelling argument why we should not, I will ask you to use your ability on DJ Neutron.

Seconded. This makes perfect sense.

[chardonnay]

I'm not a fan of chardonnay trying to buy time for dov by claiming the slot self-resolves. I'm not convinced that's true, especially if dov just keeps on lowposting and appealing to newbieness the entire game.

Yeah I was approaching his slot like it this was his first game. If I knew that he had experience on ToS I probably wouldn't have talked to him/about him the way I did.

In a world where he keeps crying inexperience over multiple days instead of playing... I would not put up with that either lol.

-/-/-/-

MJ replaced during EoD so *shrug*
I thought they seemed really really confident, maybe a bit too much. That's why I liked your line of posting at that time

Well dov is okay. I don't think he's lying about being busy so I consider it NAI. The "I sheeped Carotte" justification seems credible so I don't really mind giving him another day or two to get his footing.

SO is DoV null for you then?

ALso feels like you've been ignoring me this game? :/

-/-/-/-

i'd be lying if i said i wasn't pissed and i imagine that's obvious

tbh i was probably worrying myself way too much with meeting some skill level or standard of towniness or something that i wasn't entirely comprehending

it seems i failed pretty spectacularly at that but honestly it makes it a lot easier to not give a shit

i'll see about having thoughts about the other half of the game after i get some sleep, but no promises ngl

didn't really feel like these Page 10 Neutron posts were particularly AI. I see frustrated Neutron saying this as either alignments. Its too bad that several of my friends don't seem to particularly enjoying this game tho.

-/-/--

Im not happy that we lost the Doc, obviously. But at least I know Nutella was town, and know that Jack is 99% clear. Both were players I struggled to get a read on.

IM still really confidant in my TR's of (DDL, Cayvie, Alison, PSI, UG), and im pretty sure Wigley is town, (Hopefully im not TR'ing something that is stylistic). Im pretty happy voting between Nuetron, or Marcher, today. Probably Marcher first?

[chardonnay]

Slipting my catch up to not over wall in a single post.

Chardonnay -- I feel like chardonnay and carotenoid have been kinda playing the same game here tbh. I mean this is basically the same vague stuff carotte was throwing at me. and i don't know what to do with this. also, if you think I'm scum why are you worried about carot setting up a mutually exclusive relationship between me and you. . . hmm

You cant do anything with me waiting for you to do the townie thing im looking for except play the game to the best of your ablity. I wasn't expecting a direct response. I did notice you ignored the question below, so thanks for that.

I've been pretty vocal of my mistrust of Charotte this game. I don't think shes mafia necessarily. But I also don't get the TR's of her and there is a lot of plausible alter motives behind her actions.

I wasn't really scum reading you post Jiwon flip, you were pretty null then. I thought I posted that somewhere but I guess I forgot. Whats more important is that I think that Nutella flip also points to town you.

-/-/-/-/

The moment i start showing any suspicion of nutella she decides that all of a sudden I'm an outed wolf and starts digging up any possible interpretation that lets her throw more dirt on me :thonk:

she sees me pushing cass, she sees me catching onto her, and now she's going all out with chainsaws and OMGUS to discredit my reads and force me through before I clear myself off of the flip. Not happening.

You're so full of shit. Besides when we are both town we mindmeld a lot and here you are pushing like the entire opposite perspective of the game state and all I see is scum agenda.

I feel super confident in this one folks. I'm probably not articulating it well because there's some gut/ meta involved but I'm like 95% sure Jovian is scum here.

Reading that Marcher self meta today about who he would kill as scum dosent move me at all. Nuetlla was always coming for Marcher today. it'd probably made sense to him as scum to shoot Nuella and gamble that he can sell the self meta today.

-/-/-/-/-

I agree with the Gladiator, DJ, cross vote too.

[chardonnay]

I actually noticed that as well cayvie. I'm wondering if I'm interpreting that correctly. I messaged nanook about it to ask for clarification just a bit ago but no response yet.

But like... what if the poisoner and the doc who heals poison were on the same team...

Also maybe this means we shouldn't trust alison so much just on the basis of 'role seems unlikely to be assigned to mafia' lol

I guess you and Cayie were right that Alison's role isn't tied to alignment. Lol I didn't do a very good job reading that Mod OP at game start.

I still think from day play alone Alison is incredibly townie.

[chardonnay]

It also means that technically Jack could still be mafia. Not that it matters as he is resolved when he dies from the burn.

A town aligned poisoner, what a funny thing to play with. Really weakens the doc this game imo. Doc saves a mafia aligned burn victim, and that victim is plausibly cleared haha. WIFOM city

[DrWilgy]

Lol, good shade Cass.

As if that's my main contribution.

Hi Wilgy. Thoughts on Marcher?

Didn't know he was in this game tbh.

[Alison]

It also means that technically Jack could still be mafia. Not that it matters as he is resolved when he dies from the burn.

A town aligned poisoner, what a funny thing to play with. Really weakens the doc this game imo. Doc saves a mafia aligned burn victim, and that victim is plausibly cleared haha. WIFOM city

Giving town KP more than makes up for it.

Wilgy, Marcher's pronouns are listed as "they/them". And it's really not a good look for you to come in and be asked about the top scum suspect and be like "I have no idea who you're talking about".

[Long Con]

It also means that technically Jack could still be mafia. Not that it matters as he is resolved when he dies from the burn.

A town aligned poisoner, what a funny thing to play with. Really weakens the doc this game imo. Doc saves a mafia aligned burn victim, and that victim is plausibly cleared haha. WIFOM city

I was a town aligned poisoner in the very recent U-Pick game, hosted by Joseph. I was the Coronavirus.

[Carotenoid]

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

I don't see any reason why a scum team would watch a v/v nutella-Marcher Jovian opposition go and nk in it.

[Carotenoid]

[...]

MJ replaced during EoD so *shrug*
I thought they seemed really really confident, maybe a bit too much. That's why I liked your line of posting at that time

Well dov is okay. I don't think he's lying about being busy so I consider it NAI. The "I sheeped Carotte" justification seems credible so I don't really mind giving him another day or two to get his footing.

SO is DoV null for you then?

ALso feels like you've been ignoring me this game? :/
[...]

At time of the message I thought Dov was slighlty townie, because his #473 seemed like a read that is obscure enough that it doesn't look "suggested" by a maf chat. However I'm doubting a bit now, because he got a good gripe of PSINE-nutella clearing each other and "leading" the thread but I personally didn't feel like they were having that much like *control* of the thread when I was catching-up. Like, I'm thinking it might be biased by him knowing they're both town and on a good direction, therefore mentally giving them more importance than how they were really perceived.

A few hours later Marcher posted in #511 that PSINE/nutella lock-towning each other was weird, in essence it's the same read dov had so it might have been a thing they talked about to try to rupture town finding each other.

I feel really conflicted tbh. I feel like I might be onto something but I also don't want to misvote the person I got into forum mafia for the first time.

There's also this pattern of ~uncomfortable "lmao" at the end of his messages. Not sure if it's "new player stress" or "wolf stress".

And sorry if you're feeling like I'm ignoring you, I'm not! I like where you're going overall and I feel like a lot of our reads are similar. I saw your concerns on my slot but tbh I don't really feel compelled to answer because I think you're just a bit paranoid and that you'll eventually come around as our solving direction is relatively similar.

[Long Con]

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian] aubergine

I don't see any reason why a scum team would watch a v/v nutella-Marcher Jovian opposition go and nk in it.

That makes a lot of sense. [VOTE: JOVE] aubergine

[Jackofhearts2005]

FYI my legacy is that Char is town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

FYI my legacy is that Char is town.

[mention]Alison[/mention]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Like in this situation, I'd just kill cayvie and watch her shout from dvc as I pull off the exact same trick all over again.

Also I want to point out that I don't actually believe this is true and it sounds like something you made up to support your narrative. On a purely mechanical level, it makes more sense to kill me and cayvie, because I'm being townread a lot more than cayvie and cayvie isn't particularly dangerous to your stated "what I'd do if I was scum here" plan.

The other issue here, I think, is that if you were scum you'd have teammates. Your plan is long and detailed, but it's also very specific and based on your specific experience in Pyre Mafia. It is not out of the question, to me, that you may have proposed such a thing in mafia chat, and your teammates shot it down or outvoted you because they felt too threatened by nutella's ability to get you executed the next day, perhaps even telling you to bring that narrative up as a reason why you would never make the nutella kill.

Generally agreed.

Isn’t “if I was a wolf, I would kill X” better used at lylo+1 anyway?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I will say that I am currently very uncomfortable with the Cass wagon. It feels too...easy? Does anyone even have a legitimate case on them? It still feels like universal scumread is the only reason. I'm not seeing any real reason to scumread them right now. I do want to do an ISO, but I'm not sure I'll really find anything there.

I think Cass has made some bad pushes. Particularly on LC, who I think is town.

That said, Marcher is more likely a baddie.

[chardonnay]

Wilgy, Marcher's pronouns are listed as "they/them". And it's really not a good look for you to come in and be asked about the top scum suspect and be like "I have no idea who you're talking about".

Is Wilgy not registering Marcher's existence to the point he didn't realize they were here indictive of scum tho?

Espesaliy if Marcher flips scum today, they would've had to cross paths in scum chat. I guess he could be lying scum (rly weird lie). Or just super apathic.

-/-/-/-

[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]

Both DoV, and Marcher, having the same thoughts w/ regards to PSI & Nutella is a really good point! Also thanks for the response.

[chardonnay]

I will say that I am currently very uncomfortable with the Cass wagon. It feels too...easy? Does anyone even have a legitimate case on them? It still feels like universal scumread is the only reason. I'm not seeing any real reason to scumread them right now. I do want to do an ISO, but I'm not sure I'll really find anything there.

I think Cass has made some bad pushes. Particularly on LC, who I think is town.

That said, Marcher is more likely a baddie.

Can you tell me more about Long Con?

Hes been in my null reads for most the game.

[Alison]

Jack, I'll note your legacy read on Char.

Wilgy, Marcher's pronouns are listed as "they/them". And it's really not a good look for you to come in and be asked about the top scum suspect and be like "I have no idea who you're talking about".

Is Wilgy not registering Marcher's existence to the point he didn't realize they were here indictive of scum tho?

Espesaliy if Marcher flips scum today, they would've had to cross paths in scum chat. I guess he could be lying scum (rly weird lie). Or just super apathic.

-/-/-/-

@Carotenoid

Both DoV, and Marcher, having the same thoughts w/ regards to PSI & Nutella is a really good point! Also thanks for the response.

chardonnay, in the context of what I just said about forcing mafia to make difficult decisions, it is a scummy move. Pretending not to know about Jovian is a way of deflecting responsibility here - a pre-emptive excuse to justify whatever decision he chooses to make after the gladiator power is used.

Look at it from the opposite angle. Why does Wilgy make that post if he is town? The game isn't particularly hard to catch up, and he already knows Jovian is a top scumread and person of interest. Is it really hard to skim the last few pages to get a sense of why they are scum? There has been very little spam or wallposting, so it should take a few minutes at most. What townie is so detached from the gamestate that they aren't willing to invest a few minutes to understand why someone has rocketed up to top scum?

That's why the post looks scummy to me. It's setting up a really sketchy excuse, in a way that doesn't make any sense to me if Wilgy is town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I will say that I am currently very uncomfortable with the Cass wagon. It feels too...easy? Does anyone even have a legitimate case on them? It still feels like universal scumread is the only reason. I'm not seeing any real reason to scumread them right now. I do want to do an ISO, but I'm not sure I'll really find anything there.

I think Cass has made some bad pushes. Particularly on LC, who I think is town.

That said, Marcher is more likely a baddie.

Can you tell me more about Long Con?

Hes been in my null reads for most the game.

Mostly gut. Like the way he’s reacted to pushes and the way he’s looking at the game rings town.

I wouldn’t bet the game on it but that’s the way it feels to me.

[Long Con]

Now that I think about it, I probably would have stayed on Nutella if I were scum.

[Alison]

[mention]Marcher Jovian[/mention], use your ability on DJ Neutron or you will be treated as outed wolf.

[cayvie]

@Marcher Jovian, use your ability on DJ Neutron or you will be treated as outed wolf.

outed wolf was town in Pyre Mafia tho

you should really read that game smh

(<3)

(tbh i can't see myself voting Neutron over Jovian anyway today so i don't see whether or not they use their power mattering much)

[cayvie]

oh i meant to make this logic gates post earler Alison but i got distracted

going off your premise that these are the worlds:

1: Neutron, MJ
2: Neutron, MJ
3: Neutron, MJ

in world 1, it's better to vote Neutron first, because then we know MJ is a red flip.
in world 2, it's better to vote MJ first, because MJ is wolf
in world 3, it's better to vote MJ first, because then we know Neutron is town.

so the only world in which it is better to vote Neutron over MJ is the one in which they are both wolf. and that's both probably the least likely, and it's one in which it's still fine to vote MJ first, because MJ is a wolf.

[Alison]

If MJ flips town, why are we automatically clearing Neutron?

[Alison]

My premise is that if Neutron is scum, then MJ is definitely scum. This is because of the way MJ defended Neutron. But if MJ is confirmed to be town, then Neutron can also be scum who was wrongly defended.

[cassowary]

wait, "neutron is scum -> MJ is scum" implies "MJ is town -> neutron is town," because you're ruling out the world where Neutron is scum but MJ is town. it's the contrapositive