I'm clearly town.
Honestly, I think the last mafia is Alison. I don't think we have a cop. You can all laugh at me, and we'll see in the end. It's not me.
Moderator: Community Team
I'm clearly town.
redemption!MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:25 pm This is my last post. I might see day 3 because I might attract protection or whatever but if I don't here's my legacy.
In regards to Tim, catching up I saw him post his interaction with Nutella. He is right in that interaction doesn't look teammate indicative, and he also is unlikely to be teammates with any of the three that visited me either, especially Sprityo. If JPIC is real, Tim has been a major proponent of keeping him alive, which, again makes him unlikely to be mafia. I think Tim has a lot going for himself in the sense of he is probably not mafia. If he is not mafia he is the absolute favourite to be the rogue. His role even the way he's explained it sounds rogueish.
It is true for a swathe of reasons that JPIC's action was bizarre, and he also was in my POE before this. I still can't shake the notion that he's real, and if he is IS real keeping him alive one more day is going to be so fucking annoying for the mafia. If he is real, they are literally going to have to shoot into a pool of SPF, Tutuu, Radishes, JPIC. Which keeps the main towncore alive. If he isn't real, he's getting turbo yeeted tomorrow anyway so who cares? Well...
Oddmerta cares, and I don't like how much he cares. I also don't like how he's dealt with Tim today. He hasn't done shit all except for joust with Tim, meanwhile Tim has engaged with everyone on a range of subjects. Honestly Oddmerta looks near outed to me because of how he's acted today. Especially if Sprityo flips mafia.
In claim situations I have a policy to always yeet the person who claims last. Well Sprityo is that person. And yes he did say he was refusing to claim, not that he can't claim. Make no mistake that I am also reading Sprityo mafia ANYWAY. He was in my bottom 3 in bold red before Hally outed that he visited me. I read him scum from day 1 and his interactions with Nutella are alignment indicative. He was already very likely mafia even before this. JPIC is scummy and his claim is whack but Sprityo is also scummy and won't even claim at all. So anyone up in arms about who we're choosing should really reconcile what problem they have with yeeting Sprityo first. Especially Oddmerta. What was the "I think you're making a terrible mistake not yeeting JPIC" post about. Do you think Sprityo is town or something? What issue do you have with yeeting Sprityo first @Oddmerta? What is your top lock read coming out of n1 Oddmerta? Can I be wrong about Sprit? Sure I can be wrong. But don't get dissuaded from the POE stomp if I am because it just pulls the noose tighter around the neck of JPIC/Nook.
Speaking of Nook his claimed role is meh. If we believe his claim it means we have to just deal with the fact that he can be seen at the scene of night kills, seen targeting night kills and we just have to be like "oh yeah silly Nook getting his extra vote". His role might be real but it's irritating, he's in the POE anyway through Nutella interactions and shielding Nut and so he has to die regardless. Seriously if you want some homework read HIS EOD. All this talk about me and Tim shielding Nutella, look at how he did it, way worse... also he suspected her in the early game and voted her for liking french onion soup, then held that vote for ages off a joke, then didn't go back to her in the end it's meh meh meh.
As for the three names I've given JPIC, the strategy is that I didn't want to give JPIC the option to just fake obvious checks for cred. Like if we're going to just yeet between him and Nook tomorrow for instance and he outs Nook as mafia even though he's a teammate he can and almost always would ride that cred to endgame even though he's been scummy as shit (see me outing Wilgy in Pyre for example). Similarly I don't want to let him shoot at Alison or Hally. SPF is lock town to me but others are suspect on her and I am not gonna last too long in this game probably so checking her (or baiting the mafia into shooting her) is good. Same applies to the other two though I have a little more reservation on Tutuu and Radishes. Though Tutuu is probably town that just tilts me sometimes, she is a "yeet at exlo" slot.
As for others - I think Radishes claim has holes but I think he's probably town anyway. I understand the way Nut's role to work would mean that if he took it he'd have "no names on his list" ergo could fire off a save. It's the only claimed save in the game so we probably need to assume that Alison was the shot. Stuck in a lift is clearly nothing to do with Nutella's role so that's something else entirely. It's not a mafia roleblock because she caught the kill. So perhaps she was also town jailkept on top of being doctored by Radishes? Or perhaps that is something to do with the rogue role? Who knows really.
I still think Herm has major mafia equity. LC/Dizzy feel like disconnected town. They both have really positive energy and are enjoying the game albeit not super involved in it, which is fine. DrWilgy is probably town too because mafia wouldn't even bother exposing themselves by pushing onto me. Tedxtr's vibe on day 2 has been really negative, which means he should be scrutinised heavily in coming days but there are bigger fish to fry for now. Poison Chan and Dyachei are not aiming to control the thread in the way that both are absolutely capable of doing and the mafia NEED here, so they're probably town. I don't know what to make of Samusamu, use PR to solve him if you can. Juliets is town in a "yeet at exlo" kinda way. Find a way to get TSP involved in the game or just dedicate a day to getting him out in the mid game. Don't let him slank.
Alison & Hally
staypositivefriend
juliets
Long Con
Master Radishes
Dyslexicon
DrWilgy
tutuu
TonyStarkPrime
dyachei
Poison Chan
tedxtr
Samusamu
Oddmerta
Herm
Justplayingitcool
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
sprityo
Possible rogue - Timsup2nothin... we can make him a nice purple colour
Can you self target by any chance?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:10 amwell if the town isn't distracted by the mafia and are spending all their time looking for you then you're done for, unless your role is so strong you can survive a 1v9 or something even with multiple clears (which poison actively contributed to by clearing radish) which seems imbalanced.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:07 amBy achieving whatever wincon is stated in your role that being flipped by the town is extremely not compatible with?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:06 amhow the hell do you win then? like if the town runs a train over the mafia how exactly do you plan to win?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:05 am Most 3ps townside hard in that situation, or any. To scumside as 3p here would be to get flipped by the town lol.
also my cop doesn't cop 3P, it only cops mafia. so if you think PC has 3P equity then asking me to cop her is pointless.
tracking ted is good. it means scum ted can't get away with roleblocking poison.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:09 am Why "according to Mac"? What do YOU thin, Alison?
An that is bullshit. Mac is a doll, but he's making fart noises there. I don't know Ted's alignment, but it's entirely possible that Tim was blocked that night and thus didn't perform his action.
Why is Ted getting investigated by Poison though? I mean, sure. But I'll also track him unless you want me to holster.
I want to know what you think, and not "If Mac is right", cause I'm town no matter Ted's alignment. This is a classic get two town for the price of one if Ted is town. Tell me why I've made the claims I have and gotten the results I have if I was mafia here. It's just a big nope. I don't care all that much, since we probably have time, but it's kind of just bad logic.
The roleblocker just diedAlison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:12 amtracking ted is good. it means scum ted can't get away with roleblocking poison.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:09 am Why "according to Mac"? What do YOU thin, Alison?
An that is bullshit. Mac is a doll, but he's making fart noises there. I don't know Ted's alignment, but it's entirely possible that Tim was blocked that night and thus didn't perform his action.
Why is Ted getting investigated by Poison though? I mean, sure. But I'll also track him unless you want me to holster.
I want to know what you think, and not "If Mac is right", cause I'm town no matter Ted's alignment. This is a classic get two town for the price of one if Ted is town. Tell me why I've made the claims I have and gotten the results I have if I was mafia here. It's just a big nope. I don't care all that much, since we probably have time, but it's kind of just bad logic.
mac's point was simply that tim/ted/dizzy/wilgy are enmeshed in a fiesta of claims that involves at least 1 lie, maybe more. we know tim isn't lying as a hard fact, wilgy is checked green so he'd have to be exactly 3P or godfather. so on the balance of probabilities the biggest chance is that the liar is hidden between you and ted.
what is this tone switch the moment you realized you were thunderdoming someone who's going to get checkedDyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:10 amI'm clearly town.
Honestly, I think the last mafia is Alison. I don't think we have a cop. You can all laugh at me, and we'll see in the end. It's not me.
oh whoopsMacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:12 amThe roleblocker just diedAlison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:12 amtracking ted is good. it means scum ted can't get away with roleblocking poison.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:09 am Why "according to Mac"? What do YOU thin, Alison?
An that is bullshit. Mac is a doll, but he's making fart noises there. I don't know Ted's alignment, but it's entirely possible that Tim was blocked that night and thus didn't perform his action.
Why is Ted getting investigated by Poison though? I mean, sure. But I'll also track him unless you want me to holster.
I want to know what you think, and not "If Mac is right", cause I'm town no matter Ted's alignment. This is a classic get two town for the price of one if Ted is town. Tell me why I've made the claims I have and gotten the results I have if I was mafia here. It's just a big nope. I don't care all that much, since we probably have time, but it's kind of just bad logic.
mac's point was simply that tim/ted/dizzy/wilgy are enmeshed in a fiesta of claims that involves at least 1 lie, maybe more. we know tim isn't lying as a hard fact, wilgy is checked green so he'd have to be exactly 3P or godfather. so on the balance of probabilities the biggest chance is that the liar is hidden between you and ted.
i'll ask sloonei. why, do you want to have me tracked?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:12 amCan you self target by any chance?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:10 amwell if the town isn't distracted by the mafia and are spending all their time looking for you then you're done for, unless your role is so strong you can survive a 1v9 or something even with multiple clears (which poison actively contributed to by clearing radish) which seems imbalanced.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:07 amBy achieving whatever wincon is stated in your role that being flipped by the town is extremely not compatible with?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:06 amhow the hell do you win then? like if the town runs a train over the mafia how exactly do you plan to win?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:05 am Most 3ps townside hard in that situation, or any. To scumside as 3p here would be to get flipped by the town lol.
also my cop doesn't cop 3P, it only cops mafia. so if you think PC has 3P equity then asking me to cop her is pointless.
I am not at liberty to say why but suffice to say it's goodAlison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:14 ami'll ask sloonei. why, do you want to have me tracked?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:12 amCan you self target by any chance?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:10 amwell if the town isn't distracted by the mafia and are spending all their time looking for you then you're done for, unless your role is so strong you can survive a 1v9 or something even with multiple clears (which poison actively contributed to by clearing radish) which seems imbalanced.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:07 amBy achieving whatever wincon is stated in your role that being flipped by the town is extremely not compatible with?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:06 amhow the hell do you win then? like if the town runs a train over the mafia how exactly do you plan to win?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:05 am Most 3ps townside hard in that situation, or any. To scumside as 3p here would be to get flipped by the town lol.
also my cop doesn't cop 3P, it only cops mafia. so if you think PC has 3P equity then asking me to cop her is pointless.
I could see a world with 3 tracker claims. but I did say I wanted to cop dyachei.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:15 am I think WIlgy being green checked makes it very likely there are mafia between Dyslexicon and Dyachei doesn't it
do you believe that it is +EV for town compared to copping dyachei? if so I'll check myself.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:16 am I am not at liberty to say why but suffice to say it's good
We've had four mafia flip so far and I see no evidence of strongman or of ninja in any of their claims. They seem massively overmatched in a world with three trackers and two watchers.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:16 amI could see a world with 3 tracker claims. but I did say I wanted to cop dyachei.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:15 am I think WIlgy being green checked makes it very likely there are mafia between Dyslexicon and Dyachei doesn't it
then I'll cop dyachei tonight (unless you still think copping myself is the best option).MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:17 amWe've had four mafia flip so far and I see no evidence of strongman or of ninja in any of their claims. They seem massively overmatched in a world with three trackers and two watchers.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:16 amI could see a world with 3 tracker claims. but I did say I wanted to cop dyachei.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:15 am I think WIlgy being green checked makes it very likely there are mafia between Dyslexicon and Dyachei doesn't it
Well I think that for one if you are confirmed targeting yourself it makes it less likely the mafia shoot you. Tutuu can't double target so you are open to be fired upon tonight. If Tutuu does the right thing and rands the save between your three green checks then you become the optimal shot if you are actually going to clear someone.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:17 amdo you believe that it is +EV for town compared to copping dyachei? if so I'll check myself.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:16 am I am not at liberty to say why but suffice to say it's good
hally was for sure strongmanned, i know for a fact i wasnt roleblocked the night i protected them, and tsp also put in a doctor on themMacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:17 amWe've had four mafia flip so far and I see no evidence of strongman or of ninja in any of their claims. They seem massively overmatched in a world with three trackers and two watchers.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:16 amI could see a world with 3 tracker claims. but I did say I wanted to cop dyachei.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:15 am I think WIlgy being green checked makes it very likely there are mafia between Dyslexicon and Dyachei doesn't it
Mechanical reason to townread Mac. Hally confirmed flipped town watcher, watched as two mafia came to my house and kicked dirt on my carpet.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:20 am definitely not mafia tier:
macdougall - i don't believe there are any mechanical reasons to townread mac, but i still do. i've considered the possibility that he's incredibly deep scum burying himself into the pocket of everyone here but i don't think that's the case
alison - i dont think alison would clear so many people as mafia and narrow down her POE so significantly. i had a working theory that she was maf who had inno'd one of her partners, but samu flipping maf (and alison aggressively pushing samu) makes that impossible
drwilgy - one of alison's innos
nanook - one of alison's innos
long con - one of alison's innos
juliets - along w/the fact that i believe samu wouldnt have slipped in the way he did if he was partnered with juliets, i simply do not think juliet's reaction to alison's fake scum-claim was made up. it was way too genuine and way too honest
tutuu - there's a mechanical reason (that i now forget) that made her locktown for me, but additionally, i dont think she would have brought so much attention to samu's slip if she was partnered with him
maf:
dya
- had a really good claim with a really good tone, but there are no mechanical reasons to clear them. i can only give so much credit for having a good tone when this g game is full of pseudo-clears
dyslexicon
- has openly done nothing, i was cutting them slack for this initially because i thought they would be trying harder as scum, but i am no longer giving towncred for that. if dys wants to be townread then he'll have to towntell like the rest of us
oddmerta - i thought he was town because of the herm claim, but i could see a reality where it was faked. it's weird that odd considered herm locktown from his point of view, but that he put up absolutely zero fight into swaying the vote from herm. odd cleared herm in a very performative way, but he failed to protect him from being voted at any point. in addition to the fact that oddmerta's reads have been consistently ...really bad (no offense), it's not hard to see them as scum
poison chan
- i've intuitively trusted poision chan throughout this game but i don't believe there are any mechanical reasons to do so. i do townread them off of their tone, but we're in a position where tone isn't good enough to be townread.
ted
- their argument for being locktown is pretty good, so i kind of tr him above the other people on this list, but i can't mechanically clear him like i can the others
while i think the maf is in this bottom 5, i would lean on it being specifically between oddmerta and dyslexicon
i am paranoid about mac being deepscum and about there being a godfather but neither of those fears hold up to scrutiny right now
I think you may be right, but I also think it's possible that the last mafia or the 3p is the one who has it. Or it's factional x shot modifiers.tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:20 amhally was for sure strongmanned, i know for a fact i wasnt roleblocked the night i protected them, and tsp also put in a doctor on themMacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:17 amWe've had four mafia flip so far and I see no evidence of strongman or of ninja in any of their claims. They seem massively overmatched in a world with three trackers and two watchers.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:16 amI could see a world with 3 tracker claims. but I did say I wanted to cop dyachei.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:15 am I think WIlgy being green checked makes it very likely there are mafia between Dyslexicon and Dyachei doesn't it
but looks like its not a part of a role, i think it was compensation
it makes sense for him to do it as town
there are mech reasons to townread oddmerta
i agree
not to mention that if I am scum I'd have hard bussed every single other member of my team while drawing a bit bullseye on my forehead for the 3P to shoot at. makes 0 sense whatsoever.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 am a few thoughts about alison:
i was townreading alison because i didnt think she would clear so many people as mafia, but i just realized that if she was mafia, that would be her only option. it's not like she could claim guilty on town - and if she claimed roleblocked, it likely would not hold up to scrutiny
so while alison isn't town for clearing other players, it begs the question of why alison would choose to claim cop as mafia in the first place. if she wants to end-game as maf, it makes zero sense for her to claim a role that gradually eliminates the scummiest players from the POE pool while drawing more and more attention to herself when she doesn't die
i will hear out alison paranoia but i do not think it's likely in the slightest based on the information we have
the mech reasons to townread oddmerta as his soft claims. there are no mech stuff involving physical night action that involved another player unless im mistaken?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 amthere are mech reasons to townread oddmerta
but also why does it make sense for him to do it as town? why doesn't town dizzy just go "alright, I guess ted is the scum between us then, and poison's check will reveal he is lying"?
i mean, dizzy went on about how ted is probably town and that the thunderdome is "two town for the price of one". tell me again how town dizzy gets there on ted being town given the gamestate?
to be clear: we have strong reason to believe that one of dizzy and ted is lying. you're telling me dizzy has 0 suspicions on ted because "he's just not seeing it"?tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:34 am the mech reasons to townread oddmerta as his soft claims. there are no mech stuff involving physical night action that involved another player unless im mistaken?
dizzy is disagreeing with the notion that there has to be 1 scum between him and ted cuz i guess he just disagrees / hes not seeing it. im also not seeing it. he didnt like being complacent about being put into the chop box. and its not scummy to express paranoia at the town core.
like, alison, i feel like u want dizzy to be scum because you got annoyed he scumread you, in my opinion
i think dizzy is just not reading the game and just doesnt like blindly trusting plans that involve the potential of him being mafia
you'd think the mafia rolecop would cop the people who didn't claim their roles, rather than the people who did
You just threw out I might be godfather, apparently cause I said you can check me. Oh wow, such godfather, such stealth, such smarts. Now Wilgy has to be "exactly godfather". Why is it more likely that I am and not Wilgy? I'm not saying Wilgy is scum, I'm just pointing out that you're fitting the facts to your narrative right now.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:12 amtracking ted is good. it means scum ted can't get away with roleblocking poison.
mac's point was simply that tim/ted/dizzy/wilgy are enmeshed in a fiesta of claims that involves at least 1 lie, maybe more. we know tim isn't lying as a hard fact, wilgy is checked green so he'd have to be exactly 3P or godfather. so on the balance of probabilities the biggest chance is that the liar is hidden between you and ted.
I'm definitely not going to be in a position to read this whole game and do whatever the coming days, but I've towntelled the whole game. You can read my iso, do whatever, consider my claim and find me town. It's very possible.staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:20 amdyslexicon
- has openly done nothing, i was cutting them slack for this initially because i thought they would be trying harder as scum, but i am no longer giving towncred for that. if dys wants to be townread then he'll have to towntell like the rest of us
I'm not saying you are definitely scum. I have no fucking clue, if that's not clear. But I severely dislike you saying "Mac says" when it surrounds something that clearly is very ill conceived, and I think you should know that. Clearly, I don't claim to be tracker, a role that can be verified in terms of the results it necessarily will give. And clearly I don't make up some useless lie about a track that couldn't have found place. You will have better luck trying to argue me mafia tracker or something. Do not claim I could have lied, cause I don't believe you believe that. And you didn't a few days ago. I don't see how that logic has changed for you. And I don't see why you need to see "Mac says".
how would samu know herm's song?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:08 amThat's not how that role worked. He got rolecards from scanning songs not people.
He checked that song earlier and then recognised the match when Herm outed his abilities?Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:41 amhow would samu know herm's song?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:08 amThat's not how that role worked. He got rolecards from scanning songs not people.
What the fuck? I don't know about Ted. I have no idea. I know he targeted Tim, and he said so himself. Tim at least didn't die. My opinion on Ted is a solid meh, but there's absolutely no reason why both me and Ted can't both be town. If I didn't think that I would've tunnelled Ted for a couple of days already. I think Tim was likely just roleblocked on N1, if that is possible. If not, I don't know. But me and Ted are not in a one off "one of us have to be lying" and haven't been at any point during this game. I actually know for a fact that Ted isn't lying about his target. So I don't know where you get that idea from.Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 amthere are mech reasons to townread oddmerta
but also why does it make sense for him to do it as town? why doesn't town dizzy just go "alright, I guess ted is the scum between us then, and poison's check will reveal he is lying"?
i mean, dizzy went on about how ted is probably town and that the thunderdome is "two town for the price of one". tell me again how town dizzy gets there on ted being town given the gamestate?