Avatar The Last Airbender Mafia postgame

[cassowary]

I guess you said dov/carotte earlier but like, now you're saying one of me or fatmo is mad? how does that square

[cayvie]

I guess you said dov/carotte earlier but like, now you're saying one of me or fatmo is mad? how does that square

i... would appreciate some other eyes on this exchange. i'm starting to feel like you're not engaging in good faith here, cass.

like, i hadn't put it together that you or fatmo is probably maf when i thought dov/carot was the most likely team. so no, right now, i don't think dov/carot is the team, because that team does not leave fatmo alive.

unless they really thought long con had to go? he was gunning for dov pretty hard. idk. i don't think it's them.

i think fatmo/dov makes sense. they would kill long con for being onto the whole "mj busing a partner" business.

who did fatmo say he tracked again

[chardonnay]

@cassowary were you able to reread the game?

If not then just tell me your current thoughts

I really think Carotte's interactions w/ confirmed maf look not great tbh. Like what Carotte says about U-G in these few posts strikes me as very possible w/w. And Carotte voted MJ d2, but didn't have much to say on it tbh, looks kinda like bussing for town cred when it was obvious Jovian was going down (i mean Jovian already had 3 votes at this point and already had attracted substantial suspicion).

Looking back I can see cayvie's posts coming from maf as well (though i'm feeling stronger about Carot atm) and I feel bad for weirding myself away from voting cayvie yesterday. But I'm not sure I really have anything concrete on Cayvie other than PoE? But if it's PoE it could be Fatmo or Dov as well... hm. I'm a little confused atm :/

[VOTE: carotenoid] aubergine

yeah that post about UG's "whoops i did that too" Carot made rubbed me the wrong way when i was rereading.

chard: last day you said you were thinking it was either DDLxCayvie or CarottexDov:

Its shaping up to look like the team is ethier DDL, and Cayvie. Or, Carotte, and DoV.

CarotxDov is a bit left field, but more possible then other DoV teams. Only weird thing is DoV openly saying that he was sheeping Carotte N1. Almost seems like too uncomfortable a thing for mafia to confess doing to another mafia. Espeasly when DoV was already p nervous about how he was perceived.

(unless I'm misreading what you meant here I guess)

so now that we know DDL is town, if you're still wanting to go with Cayvie, who are you proposing as Cayvie's partner?

Not really trying to defend Cayvie here, I just want to feel better about it if we're choosing to vote her over Carotte or Dov today and I want someone to sell me on the case more

Thats the thing is that im not sure she makes sense with Carrote, or DoV, and im pretty sure you, and fatmo are town.

Independently I didn't have much on Cayie either way beyond disliking her D4 play. A lot of is was assuredness that she was DDL's prefect partner when comparing the two. In fact part of the reason i switched off Cayvie and onto DDL is that i had more concrete reasons there, and if he flipped scum then I would knew Cayvie was scum was well.

[chardonnay]

I guess you said dov/carotte earlier but like, now you're saying one of me or fatmo is mad? how does that square

i... would appreciate some other eyes on this exchange. i'm starting to feel like you're not engaging in good faith here, cass.

like, i hadn't put it together that you or fatmo is probably maf when i thought dov/carot was the most likely team. so no, right now, i don't think dov/carot is the team, because that team does not leave fatmo alive.

unless they really thought long con had to go? he was gunning for dov pretty hard. idk. i don't think it's them.

i think fatmo/dov makes sense. they would kill long con for being onto the whole "mj busing a partner" business.

who did fatmo say he tracked again

Cayvie... if fatmo was mafia, and was not in any hot water... then why would they cliam anything other then VT?

b/c claiming Tracker means that going into a lylo situation as unkilled claimed PR is going to look super bad

[cayvie]

Oh, we're mass claiming.

I'm June from the Fire Nation. I'm a tracker.

I tracked Long Con N1. He didn't go anywhere.

Tracked Wiggly N2. He didn't go anywhere.

I tracked Cass N3, and I got no result. I'm pretty sure this means they are Water Nation so my track doesn't work there because I'm fire.

First two nights I was going for two people me and the thread in general didn't seem to know what to make of. Cass was because a lot of people had suspected them earlier but that seemed to be kind of dying down from what I gathered. And maybe scum would have sent him to kill if they thought he was starting to be more village read.

So we know Long Con didn't do the kill N1, Wiggly didn't do it N2 (unless I was roleblocked those nights), and that Cass is likely Water Nation.

do these seem like reasonable track targets? was wilgy a suspect n2? like i mean i guess those first 2 targets were the 2 targets of our confirmed cop so i guess investigators think alike. does cass make sense as a n3 target?

@fatmo what was your result last night? why did you target cass n3?

[cayvie]

I guess you said dov/carotte earlier but like, now you're saying one of me or fatmo is mad? how does that square

i... would appreciate some other eyes on this exchange. i'm starting to feel like you're not engaging in good faith here, cass.

like, i hadn't put it together that you or fatmo is probably maf when i thought dov/carot was the most likely team. so no, right now, i don't think dov/carot is the team, because that team does not leave fatmo alive.

unless they really thought long con had to go? he was gunning for dov pretty hard. idk. i don't think it's them.

i think fatmo/dov makes sense. they would kill long con for being onto the whole "mj busing a partner" business.

who did fatmo say he tracked again

Cayvie... if fatmo was mafia, and was not in any hot water... then why would they cliam anything other then VT?

b/c claiming Tracker means that going into a lylo situation as unkilled claimed PR is going to look super bad

i mean it doesn't tho because there's water tribe people around and he can be like "they didn't need to kill me, they left me alive bc they knew they were safe from my track"

[cayvie]

i mean idk i guess it means he would be 1v1-ing either you or cass at lylo? except im not sure he would have known that at the time. what order did people claim

[chardonnay]

I would be surprized if Mafia!Fatmo has the nerve to SR me lol. B/c that push would be super transparent.

-/-/-/-/-

Fatmo cliamed after you, DDL, DoV, Carotte.

But before Cassowary.

[chardonnay]

actully they claimed before Carot

[cayvie]

I would be surprized if Mafia!Fatmo has the nerve to SR me lol. B/c that push would be super transparent.

-/-/-/-/-

Fatmo cliamed after you, DDL, DoV, Carotte.

But before Cassowary.

tho the claims happened after fatmo says he knew cass was water tribe from his result.

and it looks like you revealed that you were water tribe after the claims as well? or did you say that earlier than here

Replace in the example Vig for "burner", and that means that there's no way that they could've burned me last night since in water tribe. Thus that means that Burning is factional.

[chardonnay]

Oh, we're mass claiming.

I'm June from the Fire Nation. I'm a tracker.

I tracked Long Con N1. He didn't go anywhere.

Tracked Wiggly N2. He didn't go anywhere.

I tracked Cass N3, and I got no result. I'm pretty sure this means they are Water Nation so my track doesn't work there because I'm fire.

First two nights I was going for two people me and the thread in general didn't seem to know what to make of. Cass was because a lot of people had suspected them earlier but that seemed to be kind of dying down from what I gathered. And maybe scum would have sent him to kill if they thought he was starting to be more village read.

So we know Long Con didn't do the kill N1, Wiggly didn't do it N2 (unless I was roleblocked those nights), and that Cass is likely Water Nation.

do these seem like reasonable track targets? was wilgy a suspect n2? like i mean i guess those first 2 targets were the 2 targets of our confirmed cop so i guess investigators think alike. does cass make sense as a n3 target?

@fatmo what was your result last night? why did you target cass n3?

idk what optimal phscologicy for town tracker is as some go after most scummy players, others go after players they think would preform the kill as mafia instead of explicitly scum reading them.

easiest way is to ask for Fatmo's justification.

which they've yet to check in today it seems. :/

-/-/-/-

pre-edit

I outted being water tribe at day 4 start when i mentioned getting burned.

[chardonnay]

I guess i could see scum tracker making those picks if Fatmo was w/ scum players wary of experienced, but aloof, town LC and Wigly.

Would matcher be wary of those guys?

[cayvie]

I guess i could see scum tracker making those picks if Fatmo was w/ scum players wary of experienced, but aloof, town LC and Wigly.

Would matcher be wary of those guys?

the one game i played with marcher, we were mafia with wilgy and long con was town. we were very worried about long con all game, and rightly so, he had big mechanical strats going on. we bussed mj the day after i subbed in but i do know marcher has at least played with both those people before. and wilgy has seen their mafia game. so it's not out of the question.

[chardonnay]

Yeah i guess it isn't out of the question.

how do you feel about fatmo's maintaining the wagon on Marcher when they could've lurked out, or shopped elsewhere? I think that it was at a point where the wagon wasnt set yet. I may have to double check

[cayvie]

Oh, we're mass claiming.

I'm June from the Fire Nation. I'm a tracker.

I tracked Long Con N1. He didn't go anywhere.

Tracked Wiggly N2. He didn't go anywhere.

I tracked Cass N3, and I got no result. I'm pretty sure this means they are Water Nation so my track doesn't work there because I'm fire.

First two nights I was going for two people me and the thread in general didn't seem to know what to make of. Cass was because a lot of people had suspected them earlier but that seemed to be kind of dying down from what I gathered. And maybe scum would have sent him to kill if they thought he was starting to be more village read.

So we know Long Con didn't do the kill N1, Wiggly didn't do it N2 (unless I was roleblocked those nights), and that Cass is likely Water Nation.

do these seem like reasonable track targets? was wilgy a suspect n2? like i mean i guess those first 2 targets were the 2 targets of our confirmed cop so i guess investigators think alike. does cass make sense as a n3 target?

@fatmo what was your result last night? why did you target cass n3?

idk what optimal phscologicy for town tracker is as some go after most scummy players, others go after players they think would preform the kill as mafia instead of explicitly scum reading them.

easiest way is to ask for Fatmo's justification.

which they've yet to check in today it seems. :/

-/-/-/-

pre-edit

I outted being water tribe at day 4 start when i mentioned getting burned.

ah yeah if you think scum!fatmo would be afraid to thunderdome you, then that means that the plan would have been to thunderdome cass, since he knew you two were the two water tribe people left.

would scum!fatmo go in on a plan of thunderdoming cass?

oh, i think this means that fatmo/cass isn't the team. hell yes, we're getting somewhere.

[cayvie]

Yeah i guess it isn't out of the question.

how do you feel about fatmo's maintaining the wagon on Marcher when they could've lurked out, or shopped elsewhere? I think that it was at a point where the wagon wasnt set yet. I may have to double check

have to go back and look at that

[cayvie]

i think the only viable teams are fatmo/dov, fatmo/carotte, cass/dov, and cass/carotte.

[chardonnay]

ah yeah if you think scum!fatmo would be afraid to thunderdome you, then that means that the plan would have been to thunderdome cass, since he knew you two were the two water tribe people left.

would scum!fatmo go in on a plan of thunderdoming cass?

oh, i think this means that fatmo/cass isn't the team. hell yes, we're getting somewhere.

Yeah i could see Scum!Fatmo going after Town!Cass in a 3-way, or maybe even 5-way.

[cayvie]

Yeah i guess it isn't out of the question.

how do you feel about fatmo's maintaining the wagon on Marcher when they could've lurked out, or shopped elsewhere? I think that it was at a point where the wagon wasnt set yet. I may have to double check

are you talking d2 or d3? fatmo's d3 vote was after the thunderdome. kinda speaks to a fatmo/dov team if fatmo is wolf imo. makes fatmo/carotte less likely.

[chardonnay]

Hmmm, yeah, he did vote marcher D2, and D3.

For some reason i thought he also had a vote on Marcher D1 before Nutella Vs Marcher happened. but looks like thats a no

[chardonnay]

was D2 start when Marcher most likely realized that they were getting chopped in the future? or was it even earlier then that? I could see it being as earlier as coming out badly from the nutella thunderdome.

re reading Marcher ISO it looks like they consistently pushed Cass upon sub in until death. They also pushed Fatmo/Cayvie a bit before the Vs Nutella happened.

Then later on D3 they offer to gladiate Dov, or Carot. Tho Carot was somebody else's request. I like the idea of scum gladiator thinking that they can town cred by gladiating a buddy. that seems like a play they'd make.

[chardonnay]

No... actully Marcher was thinking about the associative game as early as immediate sub-in, when they linked themselves to DJ Star by ignoring the wagon.

Marcher is more of the kind of player that distances early on before pressure then. in that case Cayvie, and Fatmo, look a bit worse. i think lol..

Cayvie, what does Marcher's bussing game like to your knowledge?

[chardonnay]

I was resisting the urge to do pre-flip associations but now it's kinda tingling me.

I'm considering chardonnay, Long Con, Wilgy and Cassowary as town. That leaves a pool of: DDL - cayvie - dov - Fatmo

v!DDL world means one of the following combination:

cayvie-dov
cayvie-fatmo
dov-fatmo

dov-fatmo feels wrong and sounds wrong. Like, I don't have a *precise* reason that comes to my mind immediately but it just doesn't really feel like the sense of the thread, if that makes sense.

cayvie-dov means cayvie decided to play the full bus when Marcher was under the spotlight. There's like, no coming back from the way she pushed dov. I can see so many easier roads than the full bus in this world, I think it's unlikely.

cayvie-fatmo might be a thing but also eh.

So yeah, v!DDL world seems really unlikely to me.

hmmmn I vaguely remember nutella saying something about Marcher having a 'desperate' push on Fatmo. I'll take a closer look because if the team is really all the low-posters I don't think MJ's strategy is to bus.

--

Just to know, is it common to have uuuuh roles like "lost child/lost wolf/passenger wolf" here? Like a mafia alignment that don't know the other and vice-versa?

Since we know that this is a DDL villie world, can you revisit these teams?

[chardonnay]

CAyvie looks more town in general today compared to yesterday.

I think this is more likely a DoVxCarot world then a FatmoxDoV, FatmoxCarot, CayviexFatmo, CayviexDoV, CayvieXCarot-world

-/-/-/-

Is no-flip correct play today? i dont thing we came to a conclusion there

[Fatmo]

Last night, I tracked Dov and they didn't go anywhere.

[Carotenoid]

sigh I'm sorry for disappearing. Anyway. I think I'm just gonna ride or die with my lock town reads - chardonnay, cassowary, drwilgy and fatmo. I guess I couuuld tinfoil drwilgy but eh, not really actually.

I strongly believe that MJ/Fatmo was not w/w. MJ was trying to find something that would take off. Fatmo track on cassowary on N3 is also pretty ??? to make because I think they were obviously not paired with UG or MJ, so I think it's more likely that it's coming from t!Fatmo not following very closely than from a wolf trying to fake logical tracks.

idk. Maybe there's just one left.

[VOTE: Cayvie] aubergine

[Carotenoid]

hmn I guess the correct kill here is to choose between cayvie and me. I don't think no chop really has an advantage because in the end it's gonna come back to that again.

idk what to tell you. Trust me I tried? lol

[chardonnay]

I have to go into work in like 5 minites, so that how long i have to make a descion. I wont be here for EoD

[chardonnay]

Last night, I tracked Dov and they didn't go anywhere.

If dov is mafia i would expect his partner to be making the kill b/c his under lots of pressure by comparison to others.

I guess it does root out solo DoV mafia

[chardonnay]

I hope this is the one

[VOTE: Carot] aubergine

[cayvie]

I have to go into work in like 5 minites, so that how long i have to make a descion. I wont be here for EoD

shit okay. have a good day at work.

problem is i've talked myself out of a carot/dov world. if carot is wolf it has to be with fatmo or cass in my mind. i can't see carot/dov leaving fatmo alive to potentially catch the killer.

long con is dead. long con thought dov was bussed by mj, and i agree. i mean maybe i'm trying to read too much into the actions of a basically outed wolf? but again, long con died. and wilgy didn't. and fatmo didn't.

and char was burned. char had stated agreement with long con's plan to chop dov iirc.

[cayvie]

Told you he was town.

Well, thanks.

Where would you go from here?

I would chop dov, and then cayvie.

Probably same for me. :/

i should revalute things rn, but im not feeling v motivated.

DDL visiting both N1 kill target, and N2 burn target was some major bad luck. I just didn't think it would be a coincidence town would happen to have done.

-//-/-

What are others thoughts for tomarrow?

yeah this

and these were the two people targeted

wilgy is left alive, and wilgy is in a cass/cayvie world. fatmo is left alive too. i think it's dov/fatmo or i'm being led to believe it's dov/fatmo.

[cayvie]

[VOTE: fatmo] aubergine

[dov]

Told you he was town.

Well, thanks.

Where would you go from here?

I would chop dov, and then cayvie.

Probably same for me. :/

i should revalute things rn, but im not feeling v motivated.

DDL visiting both N1 kill target, and N2 burn target was some major bad luck. I just didn't think it would be a coincidence town would happen to have done.

-//-/-

What are others thoughts for tomarrow?

yeah this

and these were the two people targeted

wilgy is left alive, and wilgy is in a cass/cayvie world. fatmo is left alive too. i think it's dov/fatmo or i'm being led to believe it's dov/fatmo.

due to this, I will be voting cayvie. i genuinely don't think it would be fatmo, i don't necessarily think he's lying about his role. i know you would think it's me and fatmo on the basis that fatmo would be defending me by saying i didn't go anywhere. i mean, for that alone, he kinda does make it sus for popping in the thread just to say that, but i hope this is the right choice- not feeling anything with fatmo, may be carrotte in a scenario where i am still alive based on her knowing it's my first game knowing i will be very vulnerable (then again lots of people could've used this strategy on this basis, i just know her personally)
[VOTE: cayvie] aubergine

[dov]

Last night, I tracked Dov and they didn't go anywhere.

if fatmo is truly mafia, he might just be doing this for my vote to secure somewhere else, but we can assume that fatmo will be next target on the basis of him being tracker in late game. if there are 2 scum left (him being one), then he'll be using this strat to make me seem suspicious by defending me through his tracking, enabling the other mafia with a win. if fatmo doesn't get targeted, it's safest to assume he's mafia. if anyone else has something to say to kind of persuade me to change my vote before day ends, please go ahead.

[cassowary]

Well, we're in a tie right now, which sucks

[cassowary]

i'll probably flip onto cayvie to break the tie if it's still a tie in like an hour. bc ties are broken by the mafia, so if cayvie's maf, there's no sense in giving them the choice, and if cayvie is town then we're ending up with a misflip no matter whether or not we're tied

[cassowary]

unless cayvie's still around and wants to self pres onto carotte i guess lol

[cayvie]

[VOTE: carot] aubergine

[cayvie]

unless cayvie's still around and wants to self pres onto carotte i guess lol

blargh

[Fatmo]

I've been townreading Cayvie a lot. So that's how I'll have to decide on my vote this time.

[VOTE: Carotenoid] aubergine

[cayvie]

Last night, I tracked Dov and they didn't go anywhere.

if fatmo is truly mafia, he might just be doing this for my vote to secure somewhere else, but we can assume that fatmo will be next target on the basis of him being tracker in late game. if there are 2 scum left (him being one), then he'll be using this strat to make me seem suspicious by defending me through his tracking, enabling the other mafia with a win. if fatmo doesn't get targeted, it's safest to assume he's mafia. if anyone else has something to say to kind of persuade me to change my vote before day ends, please go ahead.

if it's not you, and i die here, remember that there's a possibility of an untrackable water tribe person (cass) leaving fatmo alive as bait to be chopped.

[cayvie]

gah i feel like we're just losing to fatmo/dov on the spot right now

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Carot (4): cass, fatmo, Chardonnay, cayvie
Cayvie (2): Dov, carot
Cass (1): wilgy

[mention]Carotenoid[/mention] was town and flips:

Zuko (Fire Nation)

You have no abilities. You are town, and you win when all the mafia are dead.

In addition, Chardonnay does not die.

Get me night actions ASAP

Postcaps are these plus 33:



[mention]cassowary[/mention]
[mention]cayvie[/mention]
[mention]chardonnay[/mention]
[mention]dov[/mention]
[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]
[mention]Fatmo[/mention]

[cassowary]

jeez

ok it's gotta be dov right?? can it be cayvie/fatmo playing an insane bus game??

[cassowary]

i don't think it's chardonnay or wilgy

fmpov this leaves 3 teams, cayvie/fatmo, cayvie/dov, or dov/fatmo

if i can eliminate one of these i'll know who to vote

[dov]

i'm hardlining chardonnay or cayvie right now. i never saw a real objective in voting carrot. i don't think I would've defended against the decision if I was scum, I wanted cayvie chopped and I think this should further my point
i'm voting cayvie once again unless something switches up all of a sudden

[cayvie]

i'm hardlining chardonnay or cayvie right now. i never saw a real objective in voting carrot. i don't think I would've defended against the decision if I was scum, I wanted cayvie chopped and I think this should further my point
i'm voting cayvie once again unless something switches up all of a sudden

do you think the team is me and chardonnay?

[cassowary]

i never saw a real objective in voting carrot. i don't think I would've defended against the decision if I was scum

um:

not feeling anything with fatmo, may be carrotte in a scenario where i am still alive based on her knowing it's my first game knowing i will be very vulnerable (then again lots of people could've used this strategy on this basis, i just know her personally)

[cayvie]

i don't think it's chardonnay or wilgy

fmpov this leaves 3 teams, cayvie/fatmo, cayvie/dov, or dov/fatmo

if i can eliminate one of these i'll know who to vote

i mean i think it has to be dov/fatmo??

otherwise it's like cass/char with some hard mutual defense. bleh.