LGBT+ Mafia [END - Mafia Win]

[TonyStarkPrime]

nice got one

[TonyStarkPrime]

should vig shoot or no? no right

[TonyStarkPrime]

or is it a yes

[Hally]

i think a poe of mp/sabie/mist is right and we have a vig shot tonight so we can either just win off that or narrow it down to two, which is all we need to lock this up!

[Hally]

should vig shoot or no? no right

why would the vig holster after we got scum? this is the best time to shoot

[TonyStarkPrime]

6->

5 = two chops

vig shot takes it to 4 = one chop

[Hally]

6->

5 = two chops

vig shot takes it to 4 = one chop

i thought we have two eliminations even if vig misfires?

[TonyStarkPrime]

someone check it

[Hally]

6-2
cayvie dead, hyena dead
5-1
scum nk, vig misfire
3-1 oh wait ig this would be mylo? damn this setup is like... not very forgiving

[Hally]

but like the vig shot would be instead of another elimination. so either way we have two chances

[Hally]

i think vig should shoot with mp/sabie/mist. and if they feel they’re at risk to be shot tonight (ie on cayvie) i think they should claim too so that scum can’t nk them tonight and then claim vig later on. i’m worried in a flipless setup about scum fake claiming and getting wrongly cleared off that. but idk if this mechanically correct

[Ranmilia]

Well, the one thing I didn't want to happen happened, I took my meds, got groggy, had to lie down for a nap and did not wake up the 1 hour later planned. Massive apologies.

... felt good about my vote though and at a glance it appears to have been a hit? Good times. Reading up now.

[Ranmilia]

Rannya~
TSP (IC, good tone, has matched my view of the game)

Hally (tinfoil, Hally has a good scum game and if there is a busser it's here. I don't currently see getting there though. Doesn't feel like it matches what's happened this game.)

MP7 (exact opposite view of Cayvie's posting, shading Mist, shading Sabie (for hedging on Cayvie, but she's also defending Cayvie?), very different mindset. But also feels genuine? But also... 32000 posts. I haven't seen any MP7 games but I assume she's very much not a potato.)
Sabie (on Hally eod, also shading Mist, defended Cayvie on the basis of "scum wouldn't dip")
Mist (... dipped?)

[Hally]

if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

[Ranmilia]

if this game turns into misyeeting Mist day 2 I swear to baphomet

[Hally]

if mp is scum here she’s very good at faking emotion

[Hally]

I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

[sabie12]

Rannya~
TSP (IC, good tone, has matched my view of the game)

Hally (tinfoil, Hally has a good scum game and if there is a busser it's here. I don't currently see getting there though. Doesn't feel like it matches what's happened this game.)

MP7 (exact opposite view of Cayvie's posting, shading Mist, shading Sabie (for hedging on Cayvie, but she's also defending Cayvie?), very different mindset. But also feels genuine? But also... 32000 posts. I haven't seen any MP7 games but I assume she's very much not a potato.)
Sabie (on Hally eod, also shading Mist, defended Cayvie on the basis of "scum wouldn't dip")
Mist (... dipped?)

Mist didn't give a reason for voting me aside from reading one of my posts and saying it was weird. I also didn't defend cayvie I was moreso trying to have more discussion about it. I don't like piling votes on the person who isn't there to defend themselves but I wasn't against the cayvie vote. Mist had said cayvie was a strong townread. I think the whole not being able to see the votes impacted end of day and I was not able to be here.

Hally being a busser could work in the sense that now she has cred and has narrowed things down to kill one of these three. However, I think mist is the most likely option.

[sabie12]

i mean, my reason for voting hyena was that he didn’t have eevee in his top ten pokemon. so yea, i would say i don’t expect that to be taken very seriously

exactly: not actually bussing.

....okay, but why do we have to be teamed as opposed to like, not teamed

you don't have to be teamed. im just saying you're compatible.

you said we were the mafia team. what caused you to have that thought?

i feel like you're taking me in circles.

i saw you and hyena vote each other for what looked like silly-ish reasons. i thought, hmm this looks like it could be distancing. is there a reason for mafia to distance/bus in a flipless setting? yes, potentially, if they want to use the vengekill.

and here we are

So cayvie said this about bussing and now we know she was the vengeful one. I don't know if that means it happened for sure just figured that might be relevant

[sabie12]

ok but cayvie how do you read us?

i wasn't joking about the wolf duo thing. i wouldn't say it's a read but i see you two as v compatible rn.

why would wolves bus in flipless, especially with an IC in the setup?

you don't get any cred off the flip so there's no real point

you do get cred off one flip, though.

no you don't

there is no flip

there's a vengeful mafia

And this exchange. Hmmm

[Mistyx]

weh

[Tangrowth]

Wait per the role description how did cayvie choose Hyena if she isn’t here? How does that work?

Was it just the last person who voted?

im pretty sure its not? is this a derp clear?

I thought hyena was the most recent vote and I know I played a game where that happened before. Only reason I could see a bus here is if the mafia wanted the vengeful kill to go off since cayvie kinda disappeared?

well we know hyena didn’t bus and he was the last vote. tony i assume is ic. so if there’s a bus it could only be ran. i dont really think ran had to bus though?

I guess a Ran bus is possible? I don't really get it though.

[Tangrowth]

Like seriously why does anyone bus there? It gives us the most possible information. It makes even less sense because maybe scum do it if they know cayvie is fucked but Hyena was the last one to vote.

I really think we just yeet Mist and sabie? I should do analyses to be safe though. We should make sure to consider the bussing angle. But like... I don't see how it's worth it? cayvie didn't seem inevitable, right?

no i don’t think cayvie was inevitable at all. mist, sabie, you and even hyena up to the last minute all tr her, which is at least three town. and that’s like half the game

I didn't think so either but I can go back and try to get a read on thread temperature upon a re-read or something too.

[Tangrowth]

i think vig should shoot with mp/sabie/mist. and if they feel they’re at risk to be shot tonight (ie on cayvie) i think they should claim too so that scum can’t nk them tonight and then claim vig later on. i’m worried in a flipless setup about scum fake claiming and getting wrongly cleared off that. but idk if this mechanically correct

Wait, you think all three of us should claim then, are you sure?

[Mistyx]

optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

[Tangrowth]

if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

[Tangrowth]

if mp is scum here she’s very good at faking emotion

I will warn you that I generally am (probably?) good at that, but I also think there's a certain range and/or totality of emotion across a game I can't quite fake.

That could be an outdated notion, but I also haven't really had opportunities to test it since my return because I keep rolling town for some reason.

[Tangrowth]

I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

[Tangrowth]

Spoiler: show

i mean, my reason for voting hyena was that he didn’t have eevee in his top ten pokemon. so yea, i would say i don’t expect that to be taken very seriously

exactly: not actually bussing.

....okay, but why do we have to be teamed as opposed to like, not teamed

you don't have to be teamed. im just saying you're compatible.

you said we were the mafia team. what caused you to have that thought?

i feel like you're taking me in circles.

i saw you and hyena vote each other for what looked like silly-ish reasons. i thought, hmm this looks like it could be distancing. is there a reason for mafia to distance/bus in a flipless setting? yes, potentially, if they want to use the vengekill.

and here we are

So cayvie said this about bussing and now we know she was the vengeful one. I don't know if that means it happened for sure just figured that might be relevant

This whole exchange would be pretty funny if it was cayvie/Hally.

[Tangrowth]

I think we just force the scum to shoot Hally though.

[Tangrowth]

I think we just force the scum to shoot Hally though.

By this I mean... if she's town, let her get NKed. I don't want to tinfoil that yet. If she's alive at a critical stage and it becomes relevant, consider it thoroughly. I guess this is a small game though so maybe I'm thinking about this backwards.

[TonyStarkPrime]

claims should be tonight, I think.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Well, anyone else who wants to claim IC can do so whenever

[TonyStarkPrime]

Since I die tonight

[TonyStarkPrime]

And then nobody can claim IC

[Tangrowth]

optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

[Tangrowth]

claims should be tonight, I think.

From everyone? Or just those in the POE + you?

[Mistyx]

And then nobody can claim IC

nobody can claim IC anyway because we force them to reveal

[Hally]

i mean, my reason for voting hyena was that he didn’t have eevee in his top ten pokemon. so yea, i would say i don’t expect that to be taken very seriously

exactly: not actually bussing.

....okay, but why do we have to be teamed as opposed to like, not teamed

you don't have to be teamed. im just saying you're compatible.

you said we were the mafia team. what caused you to have that thought?

i feel like you're taking me in circles.

i saw you and hyena vote each other for what looked like silly-ish reasons. i thought, hmm this looks like it could be distancing. is there a reason for mafia to distance/bus in a flipless setting? yes, potentially, if they want to use the vengekill.

and here we are

So cayvie said this about bussing and now we know she was the vengeful one. I don't know if that means it happened for sure just figured that might be relevant

tbh this makes me think ran didn’t bus (or at least that it wasn’t planned). like why would cayvie say this if they were planning to bus? this seems more like a narrative scum would wanna push to make town paranoid of a bus even though scum probably didn’t intend to do it

[Mistyx]

optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

because an N1 shot can allow a D2 claim from scum

if there’s no n1 shot and two D2 claims we just win
if there’s an n1 shot and two D2 claims we have to pick between them
and if there’s no n1 shot and one D2 claim we have a chance to prove it
if there’s an n1 shot and one D2 claim we can’t confirm anything

[Tangrowth]

Spoiler: show

exactly: not actually bussing.

....okay, but why do we have to be teamed as opposed to like, not teamed

you don't have to be teamed. im just saying you're compatible.

you said we were the mafia team. what caused you to have that thought?

i feel like you're taking me in circles.

i saw you and hyena vote each other for what looked like silly-ish reasons. i thought, hmm this looks like it could be distancing. is there a reason for mafia to distance/bus in a flipless setting? yes, potentially, if they want to use the vengekill.

and here we are

So cayvie said this about bussing and now we know she was the vengeful one. I don't know if that means it happened for sure just figured that might be relevant

tbh this makes me think ran didn’t bus (or at least that it wasn’t planned). like why would cayvie say this if they were planning to bus? this seems more like a narrative scum would wanna push to make town paranoid of a bus even though scum probably didn’t intend to do it

Yeah, I think you're right. It seems transparent for no real reason.

[Hally]

sabie why did you quote those posts? do you think they mean that a bus was more or less likely?

[Tangrowth]

I also have a silly cayvie/X read and that's that X may not have been super involved in the game at various points because maybe cayvie is less likely to disappear if she's feeling more invested? No idea if this holds any water.

[TonyStarkPrime]

And then nobody can claim IC

nobody can claim IC anyway because we force them to reveal

that's what I mean

[Tangrowth]

optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

because an N1 shot can allow a D2 claim from scum

if there’s no n1 shot and two D2 claims we just win
if there’s an n1 shot and two D2 claims we have to pick between them
and if there’s no n1 shot and one D2 claim we have a chance to prove it
if there’s an n1 shot and one D2 claim we can’t confirm anything

Oh! I see. Thank you so much for explaining!

[TonyStarkPrime]

optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

if someone hypothetically claims vig day 2 and it turns out it was hyena or whatever and there's no cc then if there's no shot they're a confirmed wolf

[TonyStarkPrime]

wow that got explained fast

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't have the mental energy to devote to this, so if someone hypothetically were to post a guide to the day 1 votes and delineated out a clear poe I'd be happy about that

[Tangrowth]

Thanks too, Tony! Hehe.

[TonyStarkPrime]

MP and Hally have a bajillion posts