Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]

#4051

I feel like there's something to be said about Wilgy being like "TSP mafia," but TSP being like "Wilgy mafia."
At least that's the impression I got from their posts.

#4052

There are still four people on the Ash wagon.
Can they please explain to me why this wagon exists?

#4053

The voltron has spread its votes.

Nanook, is your vote on 112 because you genuinely think 112's mafia, or for some other reason?

Also, I expected you to fight my TSP read after I posted the reasons why exactly I scumread him. Have I changed your mind, or...?

#4054

The Long Con wagon has been very frozen this entire time. I'm not sure how much this means.

#4055

how much this matters*.
I want to vote out the spectators.

#4056

Vulgard, did you see my case for Long Con? Any thoughts?

I’m currently trying to decide if I believe in it enough to get off Tony.

#4057

I'm not sure I get it, to be honest.
Why is mafia LC compelled to vote TH if wagons are V/V?

#4058

I meant TSP, not TH.

#4059

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:49 am I'm not sure I get it, to be honest.
Why is mafia LC compelled to vote TH if wagons are V/V?

He’s not. It just happened that way in that world.

#4060

Like, if wagons were V/V, then we had no idea what we were doing that day and mafia could've voted wherever. It doesn't really matter where they vote. They can pile on one wagon, on both, or on neither. They can split.
At least that's my opinion. In your case, you say that it's almost certain that mafia were voting on the top wagons, and that there is at least one mafia voter on TSP if TSP is town. Which is possible, but not 100% certain.
Can you please explain why you think it's certain? I'm not really comfortable sheeping a scumread on Long Con if the crux of the argument is that "his vote on TSP is probably the designated mafia vote on a villager." Especially since I still scumread TSP.

#4061

I'm also not really sure about the "regardless of Tony's alignment" part. Why are you assuming Tony wasn't being saved by the TH wagon appearing? Or am I just grossly misreading what you're saying?

#4062

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:51 am Like, if wagons were V/V, then we had no idea what we were doing that day and mafia could've voted wherever. It doesn't really matter where they vote. They can pile on one wagon, on both, or on neither. They can split.
At least that's my opinion. In your case, you say that it's almost certain that mafia were voting on the top wagons, and that there is at least one mafia voter on TSP if TSP is town. Which is possible, but not 100% certain.
Can you please explain why you think it's certain? I'm not really comfortable sheeping a scumread on Long Con if the crux of the argument is that "his vote on TSP is probably the designated mafia vote on a villager." Especially since I still scumread TSP.

Ah, I see where I failed to make myself clear.

If Tony is town, then there aren’t many people on the TH wagon who can plausibly be scum. Wilgy could be. After him we’re looking at Nook and Hally and Arete. So in the world where Tony is town, there’s not really room for 2 scum on the TH wagon.

So what about off wagon? Are there 2 wolves in 112, Michelle and Epi/Dunya? Seems unlikely for various reasons, the disalignment likelihood between Michelle and Dunya particularly.

So in the town Tony world, there almost has to be a wolf on his wagon, not because they absolutely had to vote him, but because there’s not really anywhere else to be.

#4063

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:53 am I'm also not really sure about the "regardless of Tony's alignment" part. Why are you assuming Tony wasn't being saved by the TH wagon appearing? Or am I just grossly misreading what you're saying?

If saying that different logical processes lead to the same conclusion of LC as scum, regardless of whether you start from the assumption of town Tony or scum Tony.

#4064

*I’m

#4065

I see. We're looking for three, though. Are you thinking of worlds that look like this:

- One in Wilgy/Arete/MAYBE NOOK AND HALLY BUT VOLTRON
- One in 112/Michelle/Dunyagnosis (with the caveat that Michelle and Dunyagnosis are unlikely to be W/W), but 112 is part of the voltron ;-;
- One on the TSP wagon?

Part of the reason I'd like to flip TSP, outside of my independent scumread on him, is that it would tell us whether yesterday's wagons were V/V or V/W.

#4066

I agree that TSP wagon looks extremely towny outside of LC, I suppose.

#4067

TSP is ?probably? hard unaligned with Wilgy (based on their pushes on one another, ALTHOUGH I wouldn't say that can't be mafia distancing) and with LC (LC's vote on him) if TSP is mafia.

#4068

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:06 am I agree that TSP wagon looks extremely towny outside of LC, I suppose.

Right, this is my starting point. Then I ask “well is the Tony wagon just clean?” If it’s not, it’s probably LC. If it is, then there’s three wolves elsewhere and I struggle to see where unless we’re just badly misclearing people.

#4069

In a world where the Tony wagon is clean, Tony is probably just mafia.
Like, getting a modpeek on him here would be extremely helpful.

#4070

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:09 am TSP is ?probably? hard unaligned with Wilgy (based on their pushes on one another, ALTHOUGH I wouldn't say that can't be mafia distancing) and with LC (LC's vote on him) if TSP is mafia.

I don’t think LC and Tony are unaligned. I think LC could have waited until the literal last minute to make sure Tony wouldn’t actually go over before he put his vote on.

#4071

Can we somehow confirm that was when the vote was placed? For some reason I'm under the impression that Tony was already at 4 before the TH push gained traction. But, again, I can't really tell.

#4072

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:12 am Can we somehow confirm that was when the vote was placed? For some reason I'm under the impression that Tony was already at 4 before the TH push gained traction. But, again, I can't really tell.

Yeah that’s accurate. I and others were there live and LC voted in the last 30 seconds.

#4073

...Oh. And the vote didn't tie the wagons, nor did it push Tony over?
Huh.
That does sound like a mafia way to cast a vote on a partner. They are not unaligned.

#4074

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:44 pm [VOTE: tony] aubergine

Here’s the post. You can see the time stamp.

#4075

Huh.
I wonder why it took him so long to decide where to vote? Was he voting somewhere significant before that?

#4076

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:22 am The voltron has spread its votes.

Nanook, is your vote on 112 because you genuinely think 112's mafia, or for some other reason?

Also, I expected you to fight my TSP read after I posted the reasons why exactly I scumread him. Have I changed your mind, or...?

If you’d changed my mind I would be voting him!

It’s basically a useless vote rn tbh, but it’s sitting on 112 cause I don’t like the current wagons. If forced to I’ll make it relevant when needed.

Idk what more you want me to say about TSP, I think he’s >rand town, I indirectly responded to your case but I’ll restate here—I don’t think you’re going to be very accurate reading people based on what you think they “should” be doing or how they “should” have entered thread. I think regardless of alignment TSP enters the thread making jokes whether he enters at post one or post 500. That’s been my experience with him anyways, which I’d say is more relevant than yours given that my experience with him is on syndicate and yours isn’t (I think? Correct me if wrong).

That’s about as much as I have to say about it tbh. Like...he’s one of 2/3 least confident townreads I have, but like, he’s still something like 90% to be town imo, so.

#4077

I see. I really think there is a difference in solving energy and focus between his town games that I've seen and this game, but since you have more experience with him than I do, I suppose I have to concede that...?

#4078

I suggest you read a town game of his on here rather than trying to compare to a champs game

Let’s see uh...amdibals and escape from trump tower come to mind. I can try to think of another if needed. Just skim his ISO, specifically his entrance.

#4079

He was in Radiohead too that’s pretty recent

#4080

While I do that... Nanook, where are the mafia? Is your PoE the same as it used to be?

#4081

Personally I feel pretty set in my own mind that the most likely team is Tony/Michelle/Long Con. But there is, of course, always room for error and the question for me is which of those is least likely to be wrong.

#4082

I dunno if I’ve convinced anyone else with all this talk but ai think I’ve convinced myself. If Tony’s town, I’m wrong about one player. If LC’s town, I’m wrong about the whole shape of the game.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

#4083

I've read part of TSP's Radiohead ISO and I don't know anymore.
Mafia is a fun game.

#4084

Maybe this is just a game where I sheep my townreads.

#4085

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:38 am While I do that... Nanook, where are the mafia? Is your PoE the same as it used to be?

Yep, same POE of LC/wilgy/112/ted

I’ll let you guys know if it changes otherwise just assume this is gonna remain my answer to “who are the mafia nanook”

#4086

WHO ARE THE MAFIA NANOOK

#4087

Should I scumread you now for making jokes plz mark one

[] yes
[] no

#4088

[x] maybe.

#4089

An acceptable answer tbh

#4090

Do you think that Wilgy voting Tony says anything about the alignment of either?

#4091

[VOTE: drwilgy] aubergine

Boing.

#4092

What did you take away from Radiohead

#4093

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:04 am What did you take away from Radiohead

That TSP is kinda more similar to his play here in that game and now I'm confused.

#4094

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:05 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:04 am What did you take away from Radiohead
That TSP is kinda more similar to his play here in that game and now I'm confused.

What seems similar to you ?

#4095

Random comments: yes.
Hedging: yes.
Invisible progression: yes.
Memes: yes.

He... still seems to care more about solving in that game than he does in this game. But that could be lingering bias.

#4096

Good enough for the time being

#4097

What’s your favorite Radiohead song

#4098

My hot Radiohead take is that they can’t be that great if their most famous song isn’t even the best song by that name

#4099

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:10 am My hot Radiohead take is that they can’t be that great if their most famous song isn’t even the best song by that name

[mention]Sloonei[/mention]

#4100

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:09 am What’s your favorite Radiohead song

I've only heard one song from them, and that was Creep, so I can't really judge. I liked that song, though.

How would you rate this G-Man game based on his matrix?