Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]

[Arete]

chop options, ordered:

1) wilgy
2) michelle
3) I dunno 112
4) onions
5) lc

who is onions

[112]

for some reason I'm telling myself pretty hard that it's not Epi. I liked dunya's and his AtE.

[112]

Does anyone else, granting I'm town, feel bad about the Epi/Tony wagon formation on me earlier? I don't think I'm particularly unlikely to be voted by another towny at present but for some reason feel like one of those votes has to be non-genuine.

[TonyStarkPrime]

chop options, ordered:

1) wilgy
2) michelle
3) I dunno 112
4) onions
5) lc

who is onions

Something I don’t like chopping

[112]

Tony are you town here? Why?

[Ash Lael]

I need to check the TH wagon. I find it really sketchy how it appeared at EoD, was pushed by Hally without evaluating why it might be bad (at least, that is the way I think about it), then people just hopped onto it casually and it flipped. I don't think anyone had a good reason to hop onto it, and yet it went over.

...Wait. Only tutuu's vote on TripleHaven was actually written out in the thread, according to my "vote: triplehaven" search results.
What the hell? How did TH get lynched?

People were like "let's kill the 2-poster" and for some reason, people were on board with that. That was really, really bad and I had higher expectations.
Which is why I'm trying to find the TH voters, but I'm coming up short.

Yeah, Hally was like "let's murder the lurker, murder the lurker."
The only reason I'm not calling Hally 100% mafia is because I don't think they would be so blatant in an attempt to save mafia!TSP. And if TSP is town, it's not necessary to do for mafia!Hally, at all. They can just let TSP get yeeted instead of kickstarting another wagon on a townie and making themselves look worse in light of the town flip.

Which is, again, why I really need to know who else voted there and made this happen, minus tutuu.

I love the fact Ash was so obviously against the TH CFD. He was like "why???" and I really felt that.

Tutuu is someone I have to re-read. People are saying she is squarely in townmeta and I've believed it so far. I'm not sure if someone who hasn't randed scum for literal YEARS (apparently?) can bamboozle this entire playerlist after finally randing mafia. If she can, then kudos to her. But I'd like to figure out for myself whether I still think she's town.

Vulgard, this was how you responded to the LHF lynch yesterday.

Yet now you're here pushing to do the exact same thing again.

Does not compute.

[Ash Lael]

Actually that vote count makes me think LC pretty much has to be a wolf. Regardless of Tony's alignment.

The TH wagon has Nanook and Hally, who are very likely just town. Dead town tutuu. And then Arete, Wilgy, and Tony.

Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy.

If there's not two wolves on the wagon, then either 2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely - Michelle was hard on dunya so there's probably a disassociation there, and the other is 112 who is probably just town - or there had to be a wolf on the tony wagon. And LC is the only plausible option I can see.

So to sum up there are three possible worlds I can see.

In one, Arete has pulled off the mother of all pockets on Vulgard and switched from the high value town Tony lynch to killing a 2 poster late in the day for no discernible reason.

In one, LC is a wolf.

In one, our PoE is wrong and we have a deepwolf.

Someone poke holes in my logic.

Assumes Nanook and Hally are town. Fine. Could be wrong.

"Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy." Why can't Tony be bad with either of them again?

Your whole case here hinges on "If there's not two wolves on the wagon". This is the world that you've contrived the case around, as if it's a lock.

Also hinges on "2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely" Why should that be unlikely? It's not an insane idea, it's as plausible as anything else.

Michelle disassociated with dunyapignosis? I know you're new here, but we invented a sneaky trick called "distancing" that wolves sometimes use. Note that Michelle is not pushing for Epi's death now, even after I made a case against him.

And the casual "112 is probably town", great!

You act like you have some powerful logic working here to incriminate me, but it's completely full of holes and relies on a grand alignment of off-handed possibilities.

I don't believe Tony is partnered with Wilgy because Wilgy asked Tony in thread if he should vote 112. I don't think that's a partnered interaction and I don't think it's faked for the purpose of theatre (disrespect read). Wilgy and Tony crossvoting also looks unpartnered, though that's more something that could be deliberate.

I don't believe Tony is partnered with Arete because I don't think Arete sits on her partner until very late in the day and then jumps off. I think she either stays on or doesn't get on in the first place.

2/3 of the wolves offwagon is unlikely not on general principle but because of the specific people who were offwagon. I don't believe michelle/epi/112 contains two wolves. 112 doesn't seem like a wolf on their own merits, and I don't believe wolf michelle cases her partner, drops a vote there, and nopes out for the day. Yeah, distancing is a thing, but Michelle didn't know how the end of day was going to evolve. Seems like a bad move to risk accidentally bussing there. Also the way Michelle just completely dropped her Dunya read like it never happened makes me think it was just an opportunistic case on a townie, not a distancing attempt. Also I hear from others that Michelle doesn't like to bus, though I can't confirm that from my own knowledge of her.

[Ash Lael]

Like up until now Tony has been Vulgard's top scumread. And now he's ganging up with Tony to lynch a low poster after ranting about killing the low poster yesterday.

Huh??

[Michelle]

Actually that vote count makes me think LC pretty much has to be a wolf. Regardless of Tony's alignment.

The TH wagon has Nanook and Hally, who are very likely just town. Dead town tutuu. And then Arete, Wilgy, and Tony.

Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy.

If there's not two wolves on the wagon, then either 2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely - Michelle was hard on dunya so there's probably a disassociation there, and the other is 112 who is probably just town - or there had to be a wolf on the tony wagon. And LC is the only plausible option I can see.

So to sum up there are three possible worlds I can see.

In one, Arete has pulled off the mother of all pockets on Vulgard and switched from the high value town Tony lynch to killing a 2 poster late in the day for no discernible reason.

In one, LC is a wolf.

In one, our PoE is wrong and we have a deepwolf.

Someone poke holes in my logic.

Assumes Nanook and Hally are town. Fine. Could be wrong.

"Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy." Why can't Tony be bad with either of them again?

Your whole case here hinges on "If there's not two wolves on the wagon". This is the world that you've contrived the case around, as if it's a lock.

Also hinges on "2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely" Why should that be unlikely? It's not an insane idea, it's as plausible as anything else.

Michelle disassociated with dunyapignosis? I know you're new here, but we invented a sneaky trick called "distancing" that wolves sometimes use. Note that Michelle is not pushing for Epi's death now, even after I made a case against him.

And the casual "112 is probably town", great!

You act like you have some powerful logic working here to incriminate me, but it's completely full of holes and relies on a grand alignment of off-handed possibilities.

I woke up and i can't sleep

I read this distancing theory and i don't like it for a reason: logic doesn't fit with my game behaviour, is LCs imagination.
I didn't read the case on Epi, the thread is too big to catch-up
I barely played all day, yday was Sunday and I was rl busy and today i was working, again rl busy. So i had no time to check my read on Epi at all.

Ted and Hally: Michelle is wolf because she didn't push Ash
LC: Michelle is not pushing for Epi/Dunya.
Me:

[Long Con]

That alone is a lot stranger than me placing a vote on a suspect, when I had already said that I don't think lynching a non-player was the right move.

[Ash Lael]

Does anyone else, granting I'm town, feel bad about the Epi/Tony wagon formation on me earlier? I don't think I'm particularly unlikely to be voted by another towny at present but for some reason feel like one of those votes has to be non-genuine.

Not particularly. I mean, Tony is likely to flip scum but I don't think that's a reason. If anything I think wolves would be pushing easier lynches than you.

[Long Con]

And you thinking that you can suss out an evil team based on a non player chop is pushing the bounds of credibility.

[Michelle]

Actually that vote count makes me think LC pretty much has to be a wolf. Regardless of Tony's alignment.

The TH wagon has Nanook and Hally, who are very likely just town. Dead town tutuu. And then Arete, Wilgy, and Tony.

Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy.

If there's not two wolves on the wagon, then either 2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely - Michelle was hard on dunya so there's probably a disassociation there, and the other is 112 who is probably just town - or there had to be a wolf on the tony wagon. And LC is the only plausible option I can see.

So to sum up there are three possible worlds I can see.

In one, Arete has pulled off the mother of all pockets on Vulgard and switched from the high value town Tony lynch to killing a 2 poster late in the day for no discernible reason.

In one, LC is a wolf.

In one, our PoE is wrong and we have a deepwolf.

Someone poke holes in my logic.

Assumes Nanook and Hally are town. Fine. Could be wrong.

"Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy." Why can't Tony be bad with either of them again?

Your whole case here hinges on "If there's not two wolves on the wagon". This is the world that you've contrived the case around, as if it's a lock.

Also hinges on "2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely" Why should that be unlikely? It's not an insane idea, it's as plausible as anything else.

Michelle disassociated with dunyapignosis? I know you're new here, but we invented a sneaky trick called "distancing" that wolves sometimes use. Note that Michelle is not pushing for Epi's death now, even after I made a case against him.

And the casual "112 is probably town", great!

You act like you have some powerful logic working here to incriminate me, but it's completely full of holes and relies on a grand alignment of off-handed possibilities.

I don't believe Tony is partnered with Wilgy because Wilgy asked Tony in thread if he should vote 112. I don't think that's a partnered interaction and I don't think it's faked for the purpose of theatre (disrespect read). Wilgy and Tony crossvoting also looks unpartnered, though that's more something that could be deliberate.

I don't believe Tony is partnered with Arete because I don't think Arete sits on her partner until very late in the day and then jumps off. I think she either stays on or doesn't get on in the first place.

2/3 of the wolves offwagon is unlikely not on general principle but because of the specific people who were offwagon. I don't believe michelle/epi/112 contains two wolves. 112 doesn't seem like a wolf on their own merits, and I don't believe wolf michelle cases her partner, drops a vote there, and nopes out for the day. Yeah, distancing is a thing, but Michelle didn't know how the end of day was going to evolve. Seems like a bad move to risk accidentally bussing there. Also the way Michelle just completely dropped her Dunya read like it never happened makes me think it was just an opportunistic case on a townie, not a distancing attempt. Also I hear from others that Michelle doesn't like to bus, though I can't confirm that from my own knowledge of her.

I can confirm, bussing is boring.

Otoh i can't bus Epi as villager. Or can I?

[Michelle]

And you thinking that you can suss out an evil team based on a non player chop is pushing the bounds of credibility.

Who are you talking to?

[Michelle]

I would better try to sleep again..

[Michelle]

I tied the wagons
[VOTE: dr. W] aubergine

[Michelle]

VC now

Spoiler: show

Poll runs till Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:50 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


112
1
5%
Voters: Poison Chan
Arete
0
No votes
Voters: None
Ash Lael
0
No votes
Voters: None
DrWilgy
4
19%
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Vulgard, TonyStarkPrime, Michelle
Epignosis (dunya)
1
5%
Voters: Long Con
Hally
0
No votes
Voters: None
Long Con
4
19%
Voters: Arete, Ash Lael, 112, Epignosis
Michelle
2
10%
Voters: tedxtr, Hally
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
0
No votes
Voters: None
Poison Chan
0
No votes
Voters: None
tedxtr
0
No votes
Voters: None
TonyStarkPrime
1
5%
Voters: DrWilgy
Vulgard
0
No votes
Voters: None
No Elimination
0
No votes
Voters: None

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Nice

[TonyStarkPrime]

is this optimal

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Is anything this game optimal

Besides killing trip ofc

[TonyStarkPrime]

everyone create a list of ranked choice voting between the top 3

[TonyStarkPrime]

or like maybe instant run off could help here

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

This is fine

[TonyStarkPrime]

voting for michelle then

[112]

Long Con
Wilgy
Michelle

[Hally]

can we not kill lc

or do

whatever

[Hally]

actually just do whatever

i am at peace

[Ash Lael]

can we not kill lc

or do

whatever

I'm listening. Tell me why I'm wrong about him.

[Hally]

can we not kill lc

or do

whatever

I'm listening. Tell me why I'm wrong about him.

i don’t know dont listen to me

[TonyStarkPrime]

can we not kill lc

or do

whatever

I'm listening. Tell me why I'm wrong about him.

listen to me: LC is town.

[Ash Lael]

can we not kill lc

or do

whatever

I'm listening. Tell me why I'm wrong about him.

listen to me: LC is town.

Ok. Tell me why?

[Ash Lael]

Like isn't your stated reason for townreading LC literally "melodrama"?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Like isn't your stated reason for townreading LC literally "melodrama"?

yes that's > rand town. Though one time he self voted as a wolf so wouldn't put it past him

[DrWilgy]

What's going on in here now?

[DrWilgy]

Ha, I called TSP a coward and they moved off me.

Let's yeet TSP.

[TonyStarkPrime]

keep it up and I'll vote for you again

[Ash Lael]

Like isn't your stated reason for townreading LC literally "melodrama"?

yes that's > rand town. Though one time he self voted as a wolf so wouldn't put it past him

That doesn't really convince me at all.

It does unsettle me a bit though that one member of my Tony/LC/Michelle team is trying to get me to move from the second member to the third member. Not sure what that means.

Probably just that the team is wrong.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

K I’m convinced

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Wilgy not scumreading me is >rand scum


Maybe


Not at all sure if that’s true or not but it *feels* right

[Ash Lael]

Tony probably not wolf with Wilgy.

Tony probably not wolf with Michelle.

Tony probably not wolf with Arete.

Hmm.

[Ash Lael]

Yeah this game might be a lot harder than I was thinking.

[Ash Lael]

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Gonna put big picture theories aside and just vote the scummiest player.

[DrWilgy]

Wilgy not scumreading me is >rand scum


Maybe


Not at all sure if that’s true or not but it *feels* right

I never scum read you tho <3

[DrWilgy]

keep it up and I'll vote for you again

No

Lets break TSP's knees

[DrWilgy]

Voting LC in hopeful detriment to TSP.

[Arete]

EoD is really quiet which makes me vaguely worried that we're on the wrong track

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

DeAd AiR dEaD vIlLaGeR

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Breaking tie onto Michelle purely due to wagon composition

[TonyStarkPrime]

considering there's currently no chop well I think that doesn't quite hold

[112]

DeAd AiR dEaD vIlLaGeR