Arete attempts to do VCA (and probably comes to a bunch of wrong conclusions)
okay
(this is all ignoring my actual reads)
on a level-1 level Poison + Ash being on the wolf on D1 is a better look for them, Hally being on the CW is a worse look, and Epi being way off wagon is a slightly worse look for them
that said it's LyLo so I don't want to be like 'wolves never vote wolves, Ash and Poison are locktown'
on a slightly higher level I think the context of the EoD points to Ash and Hally not being aligned? like, Ash was spending basically all of D1 dunking on TSP, while Hally was spending EoD1 being like 'CFD the two poster,' and I think that's kind of bizarre if they're partners
that's not VCA per se but I think it's true
semi-points to Poison/Hally not being a thing since one would be bussing while the other would be trying to CFD the 2-poster, but I don't think that's nearly as strong of a case as the case against Ash/Hally since that could just be individual preferences for deepwolfing vs. powerwolfing
D2 is V/V wagons, I don't think scum would have had a strong preference for LC vs. Michelle (maybe there's something I'm missing, I don't actually remember their reads). normally I'd say people off-wagon in V/V wagons are sus but we didn't have anyone off wagon, so. I do think it's weak evidence against an Ash/Poison team since I find it hard to believe that literally all three wolves would stack on Michelle over LC with V/V Michelle and LC.
EoD3 is another interesting one because Hally was one of the two main wagons (and now I feel kind of dumb because I'm pretty sure I was the vote that saved Hally? don't remember for certain). I think this is more evidence against Ash/Hally, Ash's vote legitimately put Hally in danger and I would be surprised if Ash bussed both his teammates back to back for no reason, when he was already (on D3) widely townread post-Tony flip. Epi and Poison are both voting the CW to Hally, I think given how close the vote was that raises the equity of them being teamed with Hally. it might slightly lower the equity of an Epi/Poison team? I don't really see why they both stack on LC there if they're wolves, and separately I think wolves would have seen Hally as a more valuable kill than LC.
EoD4 is V/V wagons again (
we should have just killed Epi like I wanted to), again the only off-wagon person is a dead villager. This is maybe slight points against a Hally/Epi team? but their other votes have enough partner equity that I'm not ruling it out. Ash and Poison are voting together again, it's honestly kind of funny at this point? if they're wolves they decided to just always vote together to mess with people, and I don't think I actually believe that.
so to sum up (this is ignoring my actual reads on people)
all theoretical teams
Ash/Hally
Ash/Epi
Ash/Poison
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison
Epi/Poison
teams I think actually make sense from VCA
Ash/Epi
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison (some things make it unlikely but can't totally rule it out)
Epi/Poison