The Hobbit Mafia: Day 12

[Turnip Head]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

[Mongoose]

BUT if we can do a universal comparison to see which players NEITHER of them cited? I think that would be a good list to have, my friend.

This... sounds like a lot of work.

Ugh, I know. But it might be worth it. I'll see how bored I get at work tomorrow. I'm really curious.

That said, if anyone wants to step it up or do splitsies with me, don't be shy.

Are you suggesting that the remaining 2 members both went un-cited, or that someone else instead of Elo went un-cited and she is not their teammate?

I'm not really saying anything yet; I gotta see the stats. However, if there were only 2 names neither cited, I'd really wanna know about it. MP was only here for Day 1 period though, so I bet the list would not just be 2 people.

And again, I'm leery of the causation = correlation argument, so even though Eloh is on that list -- that alone isn't enough to ensure my vote for her without some intense, corroborating evidence.

[kneel4justice]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

I do. I just cannot see FZ not distancing from at least one teammate. I guess it is possible if they are really quiet.
Plus, it doesn't mean that she necessarily went hard. It could have been small distancing in case she needed to use it later on. Obviously she had quite a few suspicions she chose not to act on.

Perhaps she was bit by the syndicate bug and felt bad throwing people under the bus that she didn't know. I ended up doing that in my time as mafia here.

[kneel4justice]

BUT if we can do a universal comparison to see which players NEITHER of them cited? I think that would be a good list to have, my friend.

This... sounds like a lot of work.

Ugh, I know. But it might be worth it. I'll see how bored I get at work tomorrow. I'm really curious.

That said, if anyone wants to step it up or do splitsies with me, don't be shy.

Are you suggesting that the remaining 2 members both went un-cited, or that someone else instead of Elo went un-cited and she is not their teammate?

I'm not really saying anything yet; I gotta see the stats. However, if there were only 2 names neither cited, I'd really wanna know about it. MP was only here for Day 1 period though, so I bet the list would not just be 2 people.

And again, I'm leery of the causation = correlation argument, so even though Eloh is on that list -- that alone isn't enough to ensure my vote for her without some intense, corroborating evidence.

I ask because I was getting the impression that you wanted a universal list so that it would open up the possibilities in everyone's mind to more than just Eloh.
That combined with FZ's unwillingness to vote you and choosing to vote me make me nervous. I'm not quite sure what to think about you but I do think you could be a potential teammate if I am reading correctly.

[Mongoose]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

There are still a ton of quiet people too. And absent (for good reasons, i'm not trying to insinuate it's a ploy), but that would make it very easy for their teamies to fly under the radar. If they were both pretty vocal so far, I'd think maybe their teammates would hang back a bit, but that is 1000% speculation. Otherwise, that whole contingent would be drawing a lot of attention. There's gotta be a baddie in the bunch of the no- or low-posters, but it's really chancey for them to root them out that way because the numbers game would make it a bit more likely that a civ would get caught in the crosshairs.

Anyone have any thoughts on how we can get the low-posters and absentees to participate more? Just wait 'em out?

linki Kitty

Dude if she was that conspicuous and I was her teammate? I'd be super pissed.

And your impression is dead on. I do want to open the field more to just Eloh to a) ensure more thorough baddie hunting and b) to make sure a potentially-innocent Eloh doesn't get wrapped up in a flawed Causation = Correlation Gambit.I think she very easily could have voted me, and if she had known I was going to vote her, maybe she would have (I don't mean for petty retaliatory reasons, obv). But you know her a lot better, so you are the better judge of that.

In case there's a Lie Detector in this game (or an item) - I'm not on either baddie team. I also have pretty hair.

[kneel4justice]

linki Kitty

Dude if she was that conspicuous and I was her teammate? I'd be super pissed.

And your impression is dead on. I do want to open the field more to just Eloh to a) ensure more thorough baddie hunting and b) to make sure a potentially-innocent Eloh doesn't get wrapped up in a flawed Causation = Correlation Gambit.I think she very easily could have voted me, and if she had known I was going to vote her, maybe she would have (I don't mean for petty retaliatory reasons, obv). But you know her a lot better, so you are the better judge of that.

In case there's a Lie Detector in this game (or an item) - I'm not on either baddie team. I also have pretty hair.

Sorry, I'm kind of confused!

First, I'm not quite sure what you mean by Causation = Correlation (I'm slow sometimes!). Could you explain that?
And if you could also explain the whole vote/conspicuous comments. Are you saying you would have wanted her to vote for you? It's not that she refused to vote you, it's that she was open to it but ended up choosing me when I thought we were both in the same position of being widely suspected, so I don't think it's necessarily obvious of her, at least not at the time. If I interpreted what you were trying to say correctly. If not, whoops, my bad! Feel free to clarify!

[kneel4justice]

Oh. Just realized you did vote FZ and did so early on so that gives me a pause too.
I just thought that asking for a universal list was a weird thing to ask and I wasn't sure if you had an agenda in doing so.

[Marmot]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

There are still a ton of quiet people too. And absent (for good reasons, i'm not trying to insinuate it's a ploy), but that would make it very easy for their teamies to fly under the radar. If they were both pretty vocal so far, I'd think maybe their teammates would hang back a bit, but that is 1000% speculation. Otherwise, that whole contingent would be drawing a lot of attention. There's gotta be a baddie in the bunch of the no- or low-posters, but it's really chancey for them to root them out that way because the numbers game would make it a bit more likely that a civ would get caught in the crosshairs.

Are there players you think that are being quieter than normal or more talkative than normal? If you put four hyperactive players on one baddie team, do you think that one or two of them would quiet down and play low-key? These are honest questions, because I don't quite know full well if that would happen on this site.

[Marmot]

Oh. Just realized you did vote FZ and did so early on so that gives me a pause too.
I just thought that asking for a universal list was a weird thing to ask and I wasn't sure if you had an agenda in doing so.

I love this word

[Mongoose]

linki Kitty

Dude if she was that conspicuous and I was her teammate? I'd be super pissed.

And your impression is dead on. I do want to open the field more to just Eloh to a) ensure more thorough baddie hunting and b) to make sure a potentially-innocent Eloh doesn't get wrapped up in a flawed Causation = Correlation Gambit.I think she very easily could have voted me, and if she had known I was going to vote her, maybe she would have (I don't mean for petty retaliatory reasons, obv). But you know her a lot better, so you are the better judge of that.

In case there's a Lie Detector in this game (or an item) - I'm not on either baddie team. I also have pretty hair.

Sorry, I'm kind of confused!

First, I'm not quite sure what you mean by Causation = Correlation (I'm slow sometimes!). Could you explain that?
And if you could also explain the whole vote/conspicuous comments. Are you saying you would have wanted her to vote for you? It's not that she refused to vote you, it's that she was open to it but ended up choosing me when I thought we were both in the same position of being widely suspected, so I don't think it's necessarily obvious of her, at least not at the time. If I interpreted what you were trying to say correctly. If not, whoops, my bad! Feel free to clarify!

1. Causation Not = Correlation. Basically just because two factors are in common doesn't mean that Factor A caused Factor B. Some studies have been saying that taking vitamins is associated with earlier death. So some people posit that vitamins are causing people to die early. but in actuality, it's that maybe people who take vitamins feel compelled to do so because their diets are terrible. An even more broad example might be something like "90% of cats that died in 2012 ate tuna; therefore, tuna heightens cats' chance of death." This would be a fallacy to assume because just because cats are eating tuna doesn't mean it's killing them.

2. I definitely would not have wanted her to vote for me. But if I was on a team with someone and they that blatantly came after me, I'd not be happy because it's too much attention. When I've orchestrated fake "goings after" on baddie teams, I did so very delicately. You have to hit that Goldilocks zone between "Trumped Up Nonsense Case" to "Full On Battle Royale"

Hopefully, that clarified a bit! If not, please let me know.I'm watching this Discovery Channel special on how the government would act if aliens attacked, so I might not be as cogent as i'd like.

[Mongoose]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

There are still a ton of quiet people too. And absent (for good reasons, i'm not trying to insinuate it's a ploy), but that would make it very easy for their teamies to fly under the radar. If they were both pretty vocal so far, I'd think maybe their teammates would hang back a bit, but that is 1000% speculation. Otherwise, that whole contingent would be drawing a lot of attention. There's gotta be a baddie in the bunch of the no- or low-posters, but it's really chancey for them to root them out that way because the numbers game would make it a bit more likely that a civ would get caught in the crosshairs.

Are there players you think that are being quieter than normal or more talkative than normal? If you put four hyperactive players on one baddie team, do you think that one or two of them would quiet down and play low-key? These are honest questions, because I don't quite know full well if that would happen on this site.

Mmmm, it's maybe a bit too early to tell because some people are still getting their sealegs. And several people like to hang back and witness but then are much more vocal later. But going on the first bit of gameplay, there are people who maybe aren't quite as vocal, but they've stated reasons for their absences (Hedge, Lizzybean, etc.) I think it remains to be seen, I guess. i'm sorry that was a bit of a non-answer.

Secondly, the odds are that with so many low posters, there's probably at least one on each team - I think that's a fair assumption (although it may end up being wrong wrong Mcwrongpants). I think the possibility that there'd be 4 chatty on one team would be unlikely. But assuming all 4 players are fairly active, I think they'd coordinate what they are saying a bit (I'm suddenly paranoid that I've been extremely bossy on baddie teams) so that you get just the right amount of each person in the right proportion.

In Super Meat Boy, I was on a very successful baddie team (myself, INH, our host, and Dev -- where is he anyway?). The way we operated and spilled dialogue/theories/accusations into the thread was pretty much balletic.

I think it depends on the chemistry within the group and individual playstyles. Some players are going to be more open to being directed than others and some people jsut don't work well in a group or with certain other individuals.

So in "short", it depends.

</sockface's wall of text>

[Marmot]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

There are still a ton of quiet people too. And absent (for good reasons, i'm not trying to insinuate it's a ploy), but that would make it very easy for their teamies to fly under the radar. If they were both pretty vocal so far, I'd think maybe their teammates would hang back a bit, but that is 1000% speculation. Otherwise, that whole contingent would be drawing a lot of attention. There's gotta be a baddie in the bunch of the no- or low-posters, but it's really chancey for them to root them out that way because the numbers game would make it a bit more likely that a civ would get caught in the crosshairs.

Are there players you think that are being quieter than normal or more talkative than normal? If you put four hyperactive players on one baddie team, do you think that one or two of them would quiet down and play low-key? These are honest questions, because I don't quite know full well if that would happen on this site.

Mmmm, it's maybe a bit too early to tell because some people are still getting their sealegs. And several people like to hang back and witness but then are much more vocal later. But going on the first bit of gameplay, there are people who maybe aren't quite as vocal, but they've stated reasons for their absences (Hedge, Lizzybean, etc.) I think it remains to be seen, I guess. i'm sorry that was a bit of a non-answer.

Secondly, the odds are that with so many low posters, there's probably at least one on each team - I think that's a fair assumption (although it may end up being wrong wrong Mcwrongpants). I think the possibility that there'd be 4 chatty on one team would be unlikely. But assuming all 4 players are fairly active, I think they'd coordinate what they are saying a bit (I'm suddenly paranoid that I've been extremely bossy on baddie teams) so that you get just the right amount of each person in the right proportion.

In Super Meat Boy, I was on a very successful baddie team (myself, INH, our host, and Dev -- where is he anyway?). The way we operated and spilled dialogue/theories/accusations into the thread was pretty much balletic.

I think it depends on the chemistry within the group and individual playstyles. Some players are going to be more open to being directed than others and some people jsut don't work well in a group or with certain other individuals.

So in "short", it depends.

</sockface's wall of text>

It's funny how you've answered absolutely nothing, while you've asnwered everything all at the same time.

That was what I was looking for. Thank you.

Glad you like yoga too. I've never been to an actual class (can't afford it), but I do other stretches and core workouts based on yoga for cross-training. It's such a great addition.

[Mongoose]

Yeah, sorry about that. It's such an open-ended scenario subject to so many variables that there are lots of ways it could play out so I can only speculate.

Try a Yoga class online! Or get DVDs from your library?

[kneel4justice]

linki Kitty

Dude if she was that conspicuous and I was her teammate? I'd be super pissed.

And your impression is dead on. I do want to open the field more to just Eloh to a) ensure more thorough baddie hunting and b) to make sure a potentially-innocent Eloh doesn't get wrapped up in a flawed Causation = Correlation Gambit.I think she very easily could have voted me, and if she had known I was going to vote her, maybe she would have (I don't mean for petty retaliatory reasons, obv). But you know her a lot better, so you are the better judge of that.

In case there's a Lie Detector in this game (or an item) - I'm not on either baddie team. I also have pretty hair.

Sorry, I'm kind of confused!

First, I'm not quite sure what you mean by Causation = Correlation (I'm slow sometimes!). Could you explain that?
And if you could also explain the whole vote/conspicuous comments. Are you saying you would have wanted her to vote for you? It's not that she refused to vote you, it's that she was open to it but ended up choosing me when I thought we were both in the same position of being widely suspected, so I don't think it's necessarily obvious of her, at least not at the time. If I interpreted what you were trying to say correctly. If not, whoops, my bad! Feel free to clarify!

1. Causation Not = Correlation. Basically just because two factors are in common doesn't mean that Factor A caused Factor B. Some studies have been saying that taking vitamins is associated with earlier death. So some people posit that vitamins are causing people to die early. but in actuality, it's that maybe people who take vitamins feel compelled to do so because their diets are terrible. An even more broad example might be something like "90% of cats that died in 2012 ate tuna; therefore, tuna heightens cats' chance of death." This would be a fallacy to assume because just because cats are eating tuna doesn't mean it's killing them.

2. I definitely would not have wanted her to vote for me. But if I was on a team with someone and they that blatantly came after me, I'd not be happy because it's too much attention. When I've orchestrated fake "goings after" on baddie teams, I did so very delicately. You have to hit that Goldilocks zone between "Trumped Up Nonsense Case" to "Full On Battle Royale"

Hopefully, that clarified a bit! If not, please let me know.I'm watching this Discovery Channel special on how the government would act if aliens attacked, so I might not be as cogent as i'd like.

Thanks for explaining. I'm not sure it changes how I feel.
I will have to wait and see!

[Mongoose]

Anytime! Also, I forgot to mention that Eloh has often been the victim of mislynching. I've seen it happen 3x at least. I'm not sure about recent trends - you would know better than I because you've been around here more lately. But I'm a soft touch (and oh how all these cowpokes like to exploit it on here) but I do tend to be more cautionary when voting her than pretty much any other player because of the mislynchings. It doesn't mean I won't be or haven't been compelled to vote her before though.

[Russtifinko]

Also i was under the impression that we had to have the rope from Night 1 poll to swing across? I noticed people voting rope swinging that didn't get one?

The night 1 poll was "what did you forget to bring?" so anyone who didn't vote rope should be able to swing.

Yeah, I have since realized the wording of the Night 1 poll may have been tough; kind of double-negative-y, almost. Sorry about any confusion I caused. Efforts will be made to keep questions simpler from now on.

If anyone voted that they forgot a rope in the Night 1 poll (you can check this in the Polls thread) but still voted "Swing!" tonight, you may PM me with a different choice. I will then change the poll to reflect your actual choice when I put it in the Polls thread. If you stay with "Swing!"....well, let's just say swinging with no rope is easier said than done.

[Lizzy]

Woah, you guys are chatty!

Okay, so I've noticed a few people like to take credit for last night's lynch despite not voting for FZ or not at all.

I can't believe we got a second baddie on the second day! Good voting all of you who voted FZ.! Goodbye FZ. I'm sorry I won't get to play more with you but I am so glad we've got two down in the first two days - I don't think I've ever seen this before.

Phew I'm glad we got a second Baddie! I was going to vote for either Spacedaisy or FZ today but glad one of my suspicions turned out being bad!

Oh, and yeeHAW! I can't believe we got two baddies in a row. Good job those who voted FZ. I never would have thought MP would call out his teammate like that. Do y'all think he would have mentioned every one of them or just FZ?

With Juliets the situation is a tad delicate. Had I not had a conversation with her in the X-Men game where she confessed that she was not good at building cases and just went with what others brought to the table, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Rey that her vote for Eloh seems either lazy or opportunistic, or both. Actually, I kinda do a bit. You haven't even mentioned Elo's name until you voted for her, and the reasoning behind it was just that 'oh Rob said his spouse was bad and he's usually right about it' without any other kind of personal input whatsoever. The way this reads to me is that you didn't even go and read Elo's posts to see if Rob does indeed have a point, but merely took his word for it. He's not always right, you know. Actually he screwed up big time in HP and he pretty much handed the game on a silver platter to the baddies because he didn't read Elo correctly. I'm not saying this is the case here, he actually made some pretty good points and well worth looking into, but the way you justify your choice is questionable, to put it nicely. I remember encouraging you to practice and develop your case building skills. I think that is more desirable than following others just because 'they're usually right'. I will be keeping an eye on you though.

Boogie - I wonder if this is because you're not really paying attention, but dude, you're all over the place and barely have any on topic content. So on Day 1 you randomise because nothing stands out to you. MP is lynched, he flips baddie. Oh he actually pinged you a bit. Then you show up saying 'we got another baddie', although you pretty much missed the vote, and who are your suspicions post factum (note, names you haven't brought up in any of your posts, except one of them off topic)? The one who flipped baddie and SD. It don look good, son.

Elo, well... she has been in the spot light and I am curious to see how this develops.

Also, I do agree the last minute bandwagon was dubious. I'm still a bit surprised that someone whom I considered cool and calculated chose to defend himself the way he did.

And, Matt, what was with the INH vote?

I brought my rope, but I haven't been going swimming in vain all this time.

[Boogs]

Woah, you guys are chatty!

Okay, so I've noticed a few people like to take credit for last night's lynch despite not voting for FZ or not at all.

I can't believe we got a second baddie on the second day! Good voting all of you who voted FZ.! Goodbye FZ. I'm sorry I won't get to play more with you but I am so glad we've got two down in the first two days - I don't think I've ever seen this before.

Phew I'm glad we got a second Baddie! I was going to vote for either Spacedaisy or FZ today but glad one of my suspicions turned out being bad!

Oh, and yeeHAW! I can't believe we got two baddies in a row. Good job those who voted FZ. I never would have thought MP would call out his teammate like that. Do y'all think he would have mentioned every one of them or just FZ?

With Juliets the situation is a tad delicate. Had I not had a conversation with her in the X-Men game where she confessed that she was not good at building cases and just went with what others brought to the table, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Rey that her vote for Eloh seems either lazy or opportunistic, or both. Actually, I kinda do a bit. You haven't even mentioned Elo's name until you voted for her, and the reasoning behind it was just that 'oh Rob said his spouse was bad and he's usually right about it' without any other kind of personal input whatsoever. The way this reads to me is that you didn't even go and read Elo's posts to see if Rob does indeed have a point, but merely took his word for it. He's not always right, you know. Actually he screwed up big time in HP and he pretty much handed the game on a silver platter to the baddies because he didn't read Elo correctly. I'm not saying this is the case here, he actually made some pretty good points and well worth looking into, but the way you justify your choice is questionable, to put it nicely. I remember encouraging you to practice and develop your case building skills. I think that is more desirable than following others just because 'they're usually right'. I will be keeping an eye on you though.

Boogie - I wonder if this is because you're not really paying attention, but dude, you're all over the place and barely have any on topic content. So on Day 1 you randomise because nothing stands out to you. MP is lynched, he flips baddie. Oh he actually pinged you a bit. Then you show up saying 'we got another baddie', although you pretty much missed the vote, and who are your suspicions post factum (note, names you haven't brought up in any of your posts, except one of them off topic)? The one who flipped baddie and SD. It don look good, son.

Elo, well... she has been in the spot light and I am curious to see how this develops.

Also, I do agree the last minute bandwagon was dubious. I'm still a bit surprised that someone whom I considered cool and calculated chose to defend himself the way he did.

And, Matt, what was with the INH vote?

I brought my rope, but I haven't been going swimming in vain all this time.

Like I answered JC, if it weren't for that darn elf drink,i would have been able to speech my opinions yesterday. Being silenced doesn't help me a lot, does it?

[Lizzy]

Like I answered JC, if it weren't for that darn elf drink,i would have been able to speech my opinions yesterday. Being silenced doesn't help me a lot, does it?

I thought you actually got drunk there for a sec. Fair enough, although it's the gaoler that makes you silent and prevents you from voting. Does the vintner have a similar power? Anyone else silenced yesterday?

I must admit, it is a weird target choice, but that doesn't justify everything else.

[Dom]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

This.

I'm not really saying anything yet; I gotta see the stats. However, if there were only 2 names neither cited, I'd really wanna know about it. MP was only here for Day 1 period though, so I bet the list would not just be 2 people.

And again, I'm leery of the causation = correlation argument, so even though Eloh is on that list -- that alone isn't enough to ensure my vote for her without some intense, corroborating evidence.

Mongoose, you seem to imply that there is no corroborating evidence against Eloh. Have you read Epig's posts?

[Elohcin]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

There are still a ton of quiet people too. And absent (for good reasons, i'm not trying to insinuate it's a ploy), but that would make it very easy for their teamies to fly under the radar. If they were both pretty vocal so far, I'd think maybe their teammates would hang back a bit, but that is 1000% speculation. Otherwise, that whole contingent would be drawing a lot of attention. There's gotta be a baddie in the bunch of the no- or low-posters, but it's really chancey for them to root them out that way because the numbers game would make it a bit more likely that a civ would get caught in the crosshairs.

Are there players you think that are being quieter than normal or more talkative than normal? If you put four hyperactive players on one baddie team, do you think that one or two of them would quiet down and play low-key? These are honest questions, because I don't quite know full well if that would happen on this site.

I think so much attention is on MP, FZ and who may be their teammates that the other baddie team could be among the quiet players. And ALL the baddie players are most likely very pleased with Epi's suspicion of me and how well it has been taken in the thread. They are loving that the attention is off of them. I however, and not pleased

[Vompatti]

Knowing how to make your own rope out of plant fibers is a skill that everyone should acquire.

[thellama73]

Some studies have been saying that taking vitamins is associated with earlier death. So some people posit that vitamins are causing people to die early. but in actuality, it's that maybe people who take vitamins feel compelled to do so because their diets are terrible

I don't believe in nutrition.

I do believe you are a bad mongoose this game, though.

[juliets]

Woah, you guys are chatty!

Okay, so I've noticed a few people like to take credit for last night's lynch despite not voting for FZ or not at all.

I can't believe we got a second baddie on the second day! Good voting all of you who voted FZ.! Goodbye FZ. I'm sorry I won't get to play more with you but I am so glad we've got two down in the first two days - I don't think I've ever seen this before.

With Juliets the situation is a tad delicate. Had I not had a conversation with her in the X-Men game where she confessed that she was not good at building cases and just went with what others brought to the table, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Rey that her vote for Eloh seems either lazy or opportunistic, or both. Actually, I kinda do a bit. You haven't even mentioned Elo's name until you voted for her, and the reasoning behind it was just that 'oh Rob said his spouse was bad and he's usually right about it' without any other kind of personal input whatsoever. The way this reads to me is that you didn't even go and read Elo's posts to see if Rob does indeed have a point, but merely took his word for it. He's not always right, you know. Actually he screwed up big time in HP and he pretty much handed the game on a silver platter to the baddies because he didn't read Elo correctly. I'm not saying this is the case here, he actually made some pretty good points and well worth looking into, but the way you justify your choice is questionable, to put it nicely. I remember encouraging you to practice and develop your case building skills. I think that is more desirable than following others just because 'they're usually right'. I will be keeping an eye on you though.

It's true I'm not really a case builder but the reason I went with Epig was a little different. And you're right I didn't mention Eloh's name until I voted her but I don't really see what that has to do with anything since I've said forthrightly that it's the fact that Epi made the case that made the case compelling. You may have noticed but he often connects dots that others have not because in my opinion he see's relationships where others of us may not. I can see what you mean by the way it looks like I didn't go over the facts of her case but I did and as I said above, it was Epig's conclusions that sold me. And I realize he was wrong once in HP but I have seen him do this and be right in many, many games. He's the only person I can think of that I would vote based on his opinion of a certain person so I don't just vote based on just anyone being 'usually right'. I think to truly understand this whole thing you would have had to be part of the conversations Epig and I had about his reads of Eloh so I understand that you would want to keep and eye on me, even though I'm not sure why voting with Epig would mean I was bad unless he was bad. Maybe thats what you meant. Anyway, I think I've said all there is to say about my vote for Eloh.

[reywaS]

I did not vote Elo because she randomized. I voted for her because Epig says she's bad and in game after game epig has shown that when he thinks she's good, she's good and when he thinks she's bad, she's bad. I have questioned him intensely on this because it always looked contrived to me (the times he said she was good), a man protecting his wife. But he ultimately convinced me that he knows her so well after 10 years of living with her that he can tell by her mannerisms and how she posts if she's good or bad. I think he was wrong once but he's been consistently right in game after game and I chose to believe him here.

This is silly. Epig has been wrong about me several times. And, he always goes after me sometime in the beginning of a game to feel me out...see my reaction.

I brought my rope Choosing to swing.

It's not silly. Epig explained the whole thing to me and I was quite a doubter at first. I figured it was more likely there were shenanigans. It was a long conversation because I was convinced that there was no normal way he could be right. He finally convinced me though, and now I'm a believer. I don't know what "several" times means - Epig why don't you clear that up. How many times have you been wrong about Elo? Are you just testing her by voting her early? If I'm wrong about him this time Elo i owe you an apology - I just don't think I am.

I also brought a rope and choose to swing.

It seems either lazy or opportunistic to follow Epig so blindly like you are. I don't think you are a lazy player. What if Epig is bad and setting her up? What if he's just doing it to feel other people out like he did in Viral Vids recently? What if he's just plain wrong?

Well, he's only been wrong once, so I'm not too worried about that. As I explained earlier, it is my opinion that if he is bad he is not setting her up. Why would he pick his wife to set up as opposed to the many other people he could pick. It just doesn't make sense to me that he would do that. In the times I've seen him do this - many times - he doesn't bring her up to feel her out. He only brings her up when he knows she was good or bad. I've just seen this same behavior from Epig too many times to not believe it. I'm not sure what you mean by opportunistic - I never have understood what people mean when they say that - but I'm certainly not lazy. Do I know with 100% certainty that he is right or he is not bad? Of course not. Everyone is making a bet that they are interpreting evidence correctly when they make their vote, including me. Also, I didn't play Viral Videos so I'm not sure what went on there.

Opportunistic meaning that you are jumping on what Epig is saying with no effort of your own and zero accountability if Elohcin flips civvie. And I'm not trying to say anything about Epignosis here. He could very well be right about Elohcin. DisgruntledPorcupine hopped onto Epig saying Elohcin was bad in Viral Vids with zero input of his own....just blindly agreed. DP was bad. Hence the

[juliets]

Woah, you guys are chatty!

Okay, so I've noticed a few people like to take credit for last night's lynch despite not voting for FZ or not at all.

I can't believe we got a second baddie on the second day! Good voting all of you who voted FZ.! Goodbye FZ. I'm sorry I won't get to play more with you but I am so glad we've got two down in the first two days - I don't think I've ever seen this before.

Sorry, i forgot to speak to this. I'm not sure how you are seeing that I tried to take credit for this lynch. First I said "we" meaning the civs. Then I specifically credited the people within the civs who voted for FZ. I wasn't trying to take any credit for the lynch.

[juliets]

Opportunistic meaning that you are jumping on what Epig is saying with no effort of your own and zero accountability if Elohcin flips civvie. And I'm not trying to say anything about Epignosis here. He could very well be right about Elohcin. DisgruntledPorcupine hopped onto Epig saying Elohcin was bad in Viral Vids with zero input of his own....just blindly agreed. DP was bad. Hence the

I would have been totally accountable if Eloh had flipped civ. I voted for her - can't be much more accountable than that. I don't know what you mean by no effort of my own - he had a good case, he's usually right about her. What effort were you looking for? It was the best case as far as I was concerned. And just because DP, whose a completely different player than me, did something in another game as a baddie, doesn't mean something similar I've done makes me a baddie. I don't mind that you give me the eye.

[insertnamehere]

Do I have to do everything around here?

OK, I went through MP and FZ's posts, and took a note every time they interacted with another player. Then I made a spreadsheet, because that's what people apparently do.

MinPos means that the baddie interacted with another player in a kind of jokey, or OT way.
RegPos means that the scummeister agreed with something this player said.
StrongPos means that the goblin said that they trust a player, or that a player is innocent.
RegNeg means that the evil sonuvagun disagreed with something this player said.
StrongNeg means that the mean Mr. Mustard said that this player is suspicious, or possibly bad.
Voted means that the commie bastard voted to lynch this player.

I'm working on the spredshet right now.

[insertnamehere]

Do I have to do everything around here?

OK, I went through MP and FZ's posts, and took a note every time they interacted with another player. Then I made a spreadsheet, because that's what people apparently do.

MinPos means that the baddie interacted with another player in a kind of jokey, or OT way.
RegPos means that the scummeister agreed with something this player said.
StrongPos means that the goblin said that they trust a player, or that a player is innocent.
RegNeg means that the evil sonuvagun disagreed with something this player said.
StrongNeg means that the mean Mr. Mustard said that this player is suspicious, or possibly bad.
Voted means that the commie bastard voted to lynch this player.

I'm working on the spredshet right now.

After careful consideration and consultation, I have ordained that MinNeg will now mean that the evil sonuvagunderson disagreed with something this player said. RegNeg will mean that the AT&T of people said that they were pinged or suspicious of this player. StrongNeg means that the opposite of Batman joined or started a full blown case against this person.

[insertnamehere]

I made a horrible massive mistake, the above is supposed to be in orange.

[Mongoose]

K4j, do you think that if MP distanced hard from his teammates, that FZ would look to do the same? Seems like her shtick was to play defense, judging by the MP lynch. I am not sure they would both use the same tactics against their own teammates.

This.

I'm not really saying anything yet; I gotta see the stats. However, if there were only 2 names neither cited, I'd really wanna know about it. MP was only here for Day 1 period though, so I bet the list would not just be 2 people.

And again, I'm leery of the causation = correlation argument, so even though Eloh is on that list -- that alone isn't enough to ensure my vote for her without some intense, corroborating evidence.

Mongoose, you seem to imply that there is no corroborating evidence against Eloh. Have you read Epig's posts?

of course i have, but i was talking about the stats in a vacuum and saying I couldnt just rely on those.

[Elohcin]

Woah, you guys are chatty!

Okay, so I've noticed a few people like to take credit for last night's lynch despite not voting for FZ or not at all.

I can't believe we got a second baddie on the second day! Good voting all of you who voted FZ.! Goodbye FZ. I'm sorry I won't get to play more with you but I am so glad we've got two down in the first two days - I don't think I've ever seen this before.

With Juliets the situation is a tad delicate. Had I not had a conversation with her in the X-Men game where she confessed that she was not good at building cases and just went with what others brought to the table, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Rey that her vote for Eloh seems either lazy or opportunistic, or both. Actually, I kinda do a bit. You haven't even mentioned Elo's name until you voted for her, and the reasoning behind it was just that 'oh Rob said his spouse was bad and he's usually right about it' without any other kind of personal input whatsoever. The way this reads to me is that you didn't even go and read Elo's posts to see if Rob does indeed have a point, but merely took his word for it. He's not always right, you know. Actually he screwed up big time in HP and he pretty much handed the game on a silver platter to the baddies because he didn't read Elo correctly. I'm not saying this is the case here, he actually made some pretty good points and well worth looking into, but the way you justify your choice is questionable, to put it nicely. I remember encouraging you to practice and develop your case building skills. I think that is more desirable than following others just because 'they're usually right'. I will be keeping an eye on you though.

It's true I'm not really a case builder but the reason I went with Epig was a little different. And you're right I didn't mention Eloh's name until I voted her but I don't really see what that has to do with anything since I've said forthrightly that it's the fact that Epi made the case that made the case compelling. You may have noticed but he often connects dots that others have not because in my opinion he see's relationships where others of us may not. I can see what you mean by the way it looks like I didn't go over the facts of her case but I did and as I said above, it was Epig's conclusions that sold me. And I realize he was wrong once in HP but I have seen him do this and be right in many, many games. He's the only person I can think of that I would vote based on his opinion of a certain person so I don't just vote based on just anyone being 'usually right'. I think to truly understand this whole thing you would have had to be part of the conversations Epig and I had about his reads of Eloh so I understand that you would want to keep and eye on me, even though I'm not sure why voting with Epig would mean I was bad unless he was bad. Maybe thats what you meant. Anyway, I think I've said all there is to say about my vote for Eloh.

And where have you had these conversations about me? BTSC perhaps? BTSC during THIS GAME perhaps? on the both of yuse.

[juliets]

Woah, you guys are chatty!

Okay, so I've noticed a few people like to take credit for last night's lynch despite not voting for FZ or not at all.

I can't believe we got a second baddie on the second day! Good voting all of you who voted FZ.! Goodbye FZ. I'm sorry I won't get to play more with you but I am so glad we've got two down in the first two days - I don't think I've ever seen this before.

With Juliets the situation is a tad delicate. Had I not had a conversation with her in the X-Men game where she confessed that she was not good at building cases and just went with what others brought to the table, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with Rey that her vote for Eloh seems either lazy or opportunistic, or both. Actually, I kinda do a bit. You haven't even mentioned Elo's name until you voted for her, and the reasoning behind it was just that 'oh Rob said his spouse was bad and he's usually right about it' without any other kind of personal input whatsoever. The way this reads to me is that you didn't even go and read Elo's posts to see if Rob does indeed have a point, but merely took his word for it. He's not always right, you know. Actually he screwed up big time in HP and he pretty much handed the game on a silver platter to the baddies because he didn't read Elo correctly. I'm not saying this is the case here, he actually made some pretty good points and well worth looking into, but the way you justify your choice is questionable, to put it nicely. I remember encouraging you to practice and develop your case building skills. I think that is more desirable than following others just because 'they're usually right'. I will be keeping an eye on you though.

It's true I'm not really a case builder but the reason I went with Epig was a little different. And you're right I didn't mention Eloh's name until I voted her but I don't really see what that has to do with anything since I've said forthrightly that it's the fact that Epi made the case that made the case compelling. You may have noticed but he often connects dots that others have not because in my opinion he see's relationships where others of us may not. I can see what you mean by the way it looks like I didn't go over the facts of her case but I did and as I said above, it was Epig's conclusions that sold me. And I realize he was wrong once in HP but I have seen him do this and be right in many, many games. He's the only person I can think of that I would vote based on his opinion of a certain person so I don't just vote based on just anyone being 'usually right'. I think to truly understand this whole thing you would have had to be part of the conversations Epig and I had about his reads of Eloh so I understand that you would want to keep and eye on me, even though I'm not sure why voting with Epig would mean I was bad unless he was bad. Maybe thats what you meant. Anyway, I think I've said all there is to say about my vote for Eloh.

And where have you had these conversations about me? BTSC perhaps? BTSC during THIS GAME perhaps? on the both of yuse.

Yes btsc in the champions game.

[reywaS]

Opportunistic meaning that you are jumping on what Epig is saying with no effort of your own and zero accountability if Elohcin flips civvie. And I'm not trying to say anything about Epignosis here. He could very well be right about Elohcin. DisgruntledPorcupine hopped onto Epig saying Elohcin was bad in Viral Vids with zero input of his own....just blindly agreed. DP was bad. Hence the

I would have been totally accountable if Eloh had flipped civ. I voted for her - can't be much more accountable than that. I don't know what you mean by no effort of my own - he had a good case, he's usually right about her. What effort were you looking for? It was the best case as far as I was concerned. And just because DP, whose a completely different player than me, did something in another game as a baddie, doesn't mean something similar I've done makes me a baddie. I don't mind that you give me the eye.

Yes, but you would have had a built in excuse if Elohcin flips civvie. "Oh, wow, Epig was wrong." Which is a far cry from "Oh, wow, I was wrong."

As far as the effort I was talking about...It's simple, you didn't offer anything up in your own voice about Elohcin. You just said something about conversations with Epignosis (That none of us were privy to) and that from those conversations you believe that Epignosis is always right about his wife's alignment. Your entire suspicion of Elohcin is based on someone else's line of thinking. If Epignosis weren't playing, Elohcin wouldn't even be on your mind is what I'm saying.

So, no, there is no accountability in your vote.

[Captain Bunny Killer]

A swing sounds fun, and hobbits can't swim, so swing it is.

We had some people over for dinner last night, so now I have several pages to catch up on. Man, this is a chatty night!

[Hedgeowl]

Opportunistic meaning that you are jumping on what Epig is saying with no effort of your own and zero accountability if Elohcin flips civvie. And I'm not trying to say anything about Epignosis here. He could very well be right about Elohcin. DisgruntledPorcupine hopped onto Epig saying Elohcin was bad in Viral Vids with zero input of his own....just blindly agreed. DP was bad. Hence the

I would have been totally accountable if Eloh had flipped civ. I voted for her - can't be much more accountable than that. I don't know what you mean by no effort of my own - he had a good case, he's usually right about her. What effort were you looking for? It was the best case as far as I was concerned. And just because DP, whose a completely different player than me, did something in another game as a baddie, doesn't mean something similar I've done makes me a baddie. I don't mind that you give me the eye.

Yes, but you would have had a built in excuse if Elohcin flips civvie. "Oh, wow, Epig was wrong." Which is a far cry from "Oh, wow, I was wrong."

As far as the effort I was talking about...It's simple, you didn't offer anything up in your own voice about Elohcin. You just said something about conversations with Epignosis (That none of us were privy to) and that from those conversations you believe that Epignosis is always right about his wife's alignment. Your entire suspicion of Elohcin is based on someone else's line of thinking. If Epignosis weren't playing, Elohcin wouldn't even be on your mind is what I'm saying.

So, no, there is no accountability in your vote.

I actually didnt question Juliets reasoning too much, because I have been a baddie with Elo when Epi called her out in American Gods. She had replaced in after being lynched a civ in a sock game and Epi still figured that sh*t out. Soo annoying... Yeah, he's got a better track record with her than any of us, but he's still been wrong a few times. Until we know if Elo is civv or not I am not going to string Juliets up for just that. As for accountability, who else had btsc with Epi and Juliet's in the champion game would be my question.

I need to catch up on what the actual case is on Elo. I haven't done more than skim some of those posts and have waaaay more reading to do.

I am going to swing across since I now understand I still gots my rope!

[thellama73]

A swing sounds fun, and hobbits can't swim, so swing it is.

Yeah, but goblins can. Nice try, CBK, but you'll have to do better than that to pull the wool over my eyes!

[thellama73]

So I have been thinking about bandwagonry. Here are the last consecutive votes on FZ.
Spacedaisy (23), Leamiteo (24), DisgruntledPorcupine (25), reywaS (26) 31%

THe reasons for this could be:
1. Members of the second goblin team trying to protect either K4J or Elohcin
2. Members of FZ's team who saw her lynch as inevitable and wanted civ cred for voting for her (this particularly applies to reywaS)
3. Civs with either info or really good instincts.

I'm inclined to believe that at least one of the four is bad, and I already had lingering suspicions about SpaceDaisy and reywaS. Daisy did a pretty good job of logicking me out of voting for her yesterday, so that leaves reywaS. He is going on my list of people to possibly vote for tomorrow along with Mongoose, Dom and MetalMarsh. (in descending order of suspicion.)

[Russtifinko]

I made a horrible massive mistake, the above is supposed to be in orange.

My head hurts.

hobbits can't swim

Some hobbits can swim, actually! The Brandybucks in particular are seen as a bit odd by other Shire hobbits because they go so far as to make boats! Frodo can because he lived in that area, I believe. Sorry if I'm being a know-it-all, I just couldn't resist dispelling the rumors.

On a more serious note, effective immediately, FH is resigning from the game due to pressing rl commitments. Her role is now inactive, and may not be voted for or targeted. I am searching for a replacement for her to hop in immediately. If you know of anyone, or if you die and want back in the game, please PM me.

[Captain Bunny Killer]

A swing sounds fun, and hobbits can't swim, so swing it is.

Yeah, but goblins can. Nice try, CBK, but you'll have to do better than that to pull the wool over my eyes!

Considering the fact that I haven't read anything for pages and pages, I have no idea if/what you've accused me of.

So, nice try pretending like you know something you don't.

[thellama73]

So, nice try pretending like you know something you don't.

Thank you! I thought it was a nice try too. I never claimed to know anything. Just trying to keep you honest.

[A Person]

he's just joshin ya

[Captain Bunny Killer]

hobbits can't swim

Some hobbits can swim, actually! The Brandybucks in particular are seen as a bit odd by other Shire hobbits because they go so far as to make boats! Frodo can because he lived in that area, I believe. Sorry if I'm being a know-it-all, I just couldn't resist dispelling the rumors.

Yes. I have read the books. I know there are exceptions. Calm down everyone. It was just a fun theme-related comment.

[Russtifinko]

hobbits can't swim

Some hobbits can swim, actually! The Brandybucks in particular are seen as a bit odd by other Shire hobbits because they go so far as to make boats! Frodo can because he lived in that area, I believe. Sorry if I'm being a know-it-all, I just couldn't resist dispelling the rumors.

Yes. I have read the books. I know there are exceptions. Calm down everyone. It was just a fun theme-related comment.

Awww, well now I feel bad for harshing your vibe. Sorry!

As a quick reminder to everyone, since it's buried at the bottom of the shop page (maybe I should give it a picture so it gets noticed): the Mayor of Lake Town is accepting bids for a Day 3 vote (which is worth 3!). The Mayor accepts bids every night.

[thellama73]

hobbits can't swim

Some hobbits can swim, actually! The Brandybucks in particular are seen as a bit odd by other Shire hobbits because they go so far as to make boats! Frodo can because he lived in that area, I believe. Sorry if I'm being a know-it-all, I just couldn't resist dispelling the rumors.

Yes. I have read the books. I know there are exceptions. Calm down everyone. It was just a fun theme-related comment.

Never!

[insertnamehere]

OK, so quick summary of MP and FZ's posts.

MP:
Right out of the gate, he tried to interact with as many people as possible. Llama was the person he talked to the most, and all of those interactions were positive. He began a case on his teammate, FZ, which he pushed for most of the day, before flirting with voting with llama for Dom. In the end, he suddenly voted for Spacedaisy. He was maybe the only person in the thread who defended me against people looking for an easy vote.
People he didn't even mention or talk to: A Person, DFaraday, fingersplints, Flyin' High, Elochin, niju, Rey, and Spaghetti.

FZ:
An incredibly wishy-washy player. Goes from condemning a person, to saying that person is the only one she trusts. She starts waffling around an MP vote, but changes her opinion of him once a post. Also extremely divided on Epig and Dom. She finds the sudden bandwagon on me suspicious, as do I, and she mentions Juliets and SD. Then, she mentions voting for SD. Doesn't even address why her, and not juliets. Later, of course, she takes that back and finds me suspicious again. It looks like MP and co. tried to start a bandwagon on SD. MP and Vompatti both voted for her. Vompatti, as always, hides behind a wall of random fuckery, but his buddy-buddy attitude towards both MP and FZ makes me nervous. At this point, I'm pretty sure that SD is not on the same baddie team as MP and FZ. But, the first person MP mentioned that he suspected was FZ. Maybe they're just playing a super fucking ballsy game. Knowing both MP and FZ, it wouldn't surprise me. After talking about Rey for one post, all of a sudden, she calls him "one of my top suspects". She also does the same thing with Mongoose.
People he didn't even mention or talk to: A Person, BWT, Boogs, DFaraday, DP, Elochin, fingersplints, Flyin' High, Kyle, Lea, niju, Snow Dog, and Spaghetti.

People MP and FZ didn't even mention or talk to:
A Person
DFaraday
Elochin
fingersplints
Flyin' High
nijuuk
SpaghettiEverywhere

[insertnamehere]

[insertnamehere]

fuck

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

[Captain Bunny Killer]

hobbits can't swim

Some hobbits can swim, actually! The Brandybucks in particular are seen as a bit odd by other Shire hobbits because they go so far as to make boats! Frodo can because he lived in that area, I believe. Sorry if I'm being a know-it-all, I just couldn't resist dispelling the rumors.

Yes. I have read the books. I know there are exceptions. Calm down everyone. It was just a fun theme-related comment.

Never!

:P

Ok, seeing the other comments, I gather I was taking things the wrong way. Sorry guys. I'm kind of behind here, and I'm behind in some rl stuff too that's stressing me out. Thanks for trying to play along.

[Marmot]

INH, I cannot view the file. Is it not compatible with Middle Earth perhaps?