It's a Mysterious Universe (D6)

#2751

And Sloonei got a thing some time

#2752

I’m wondering if I got a thing from Sloonei

#2753

Did everyone else fall asleep too

#2754

Okay, I think I'm ready to try to make sense of things.

#2755

Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.

#2756

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:15 pm Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.

Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.

#2757

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:18 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:15 pm Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.
Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.

The last idea that I had (and the most tinfoil-y) is that... maybe mafia has not been ABLE to make nightkills since punk chat came into the thread. Maybe us entering the thread took away their ability to do so. The reason why this came to mind is that the nightkills stopped the moment we entered the thread, which made me think we triggered something.

#2758

Before I go on, I should probably talk about what went on in punk chat during the short night phase. After Quin flipped town, I came into the punk chat thinking that I just lost and that Trustworthy was mafia after all. I almost chose not to do/say anything since I had thought it was pointless, but then Trustworthy suggested that we just assume the other person is town, as that's the only way we'd be able to win at that point -- I eventually agreed. I don't know what else I could have done at that point.

The first thing brought up after that is TSP asking to RBed. Both of us were afraid that if he was mafia and if he removed someone from the thread, we'd just automatically lose since he's the tiebreaker. Then I asked what if Nutella was his partner and what if that's why he asked to be RBed (so that they knew where the RB was going and that Nutella -- or whoever TSP's partner could be -- could just freely attack). Trustworthy agreed that it's possible and that it would be best to trust that Alison knew what to do (I think this was him thinking Alison was a protective role).

(continued in next post)

#2759

(continued from last post)

So, Trustworthy agreed with me that TSP asking to be RBed could be an attempt to draw the roleblock on to him instead of a partner. However, again Trustworthy points out, if TSP removes someone from the thread, we're potentially 2 town vs 2 scum where TSP is the tiebreaker -- we lose if TSP is scum in this situation.

At this point, I'm just like, "why isn't the game just over then?" Because, like, if this was the case, it didn't make sense how we could win even if we did stop a nightkill or stop TSP from removing someone from the thread. I thought that one of those things would always happen and that we'd only be able to stop one of them. Then TL brought up one possibility -- a TP could still be alive. In this case, a TP would be able to stop the nightkill and an RB from us would be able to stop TSP from pulling someone out of the thread.

#2760

(continued from last post)

At this point, I stop Trustworthy and ask him if he trusts that I'm town, because if he did, I needed to know whether he actually was a protective role or not. My logic was that if they are NOT a protective role, then our RB (plus TSP's jailkeep) potentially stopped a nightkill, which meant Alison was likely to be mafia. Finally, Trustworthy claims VT to me. They claimed that they bluffed to keep themself from getting yeeted.

I come to the conclusion again that we're fucked if both TSP and Alison are both mafia, because we run into the same problem mentioned earlier when we were talking about TSP and Nutella. We can't stop both a nightkill and TSP's jailkeep alone.

#2761

(continued from last past)

I start doubting myself though because I think the game would have ended if town couldn't mechanically win the game at that point. Like, how could we stop the mafia if they could both 1.) night kill someone, 2.) remove someone from the thread?

It's at this point Trustworthy mentioned Alison may have softed a protective role and he had decided to lay his life as cover. I did ask to see the soft and Trustworthy did mention that it happened at SoD after the first no-death when she hard pushed everyone to not claim today or ever. I didn't really look into it because I suddenly had a different thought.

Even if Alison was a doctor or some sort of protective role, she couldn't have saved anyone last night -- we ROLEBLOCKED her that night. Then TSP was like, "so wtf did the kill go?" and I was like, "we probably stopped it!" Because in my mind, there's no reason for mafia to be no killing.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #2762

Hyeeeeeeeeenaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

You're saying a lot of words but like, are you mafia

#2763

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:05 pm Hyeeeeeeeeenaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

You're saying a lot of words but like, are you mafia

Nutellaaaaaaaaa

No I'm nooooooooooot

#2764

(continued from last past)

Unfortunately, we end up coming back to the same issue we had before -- even if it is TSP+Alison, we can't stop both of them with one roleblock. Even with Nutella being able to shoot maybe Alison the next day, there's nothing stopping those two from targeting her with both a nightkill AND a lock up action.

It's at this point Trustyworthy says "And I as TP would always protect them." Initially I dismiss this because he had just claimed VT to me, but this becomes important later in why we ended up choosing to RB TSP over Alison (basically, I realize that -Alison- probably doesn't know TL is not TP, so there's still a chance she'd attack Trustworthy over Nutella if she caught TL's softs).

Before that happens though, I come back to TSP's ability to break ties and realize that if TSP is town, he can actually remove a mafia, which would give town a possibility to win. It's here that I think my logic gets a little fuzzy, because I call him probably town at this point with the reason being that the game would just be over if he wasn't. I'm not sure I agree with myself here anymore, lol.

#2765

(continued from last point)

Trustworthy brings up the point that Nutella being town could work, too, instead of TSP being town, but again, I bring up Nutella could be removed from the thread tomorrow even if we stop the kill. It's here Trustworthy brings up the brilliant point -- what if mafia does NOT attack them and we RB TSP's block?

Again, I immediately dismiss this because Alison just kills Alison in this case. Why doesn't Alison just do that?

Then two words rung out,

Trustworthy Liberal: "My claim"

Wait... no way, lol. Do you think she.... oh my god, lol. It's then I realize TL may pull the biggest mind fuck on mafia if mafia actually believes TL's claim. Furthermore, this seems like a possible path towards town victory? I didn't know what else to do.

Thus, we decide to RB TSP with the hope that Trustworthy draws the nightkill, lol.

It was a batshit plan, but it was the only way I thought we could win at this point.

#2766

THE END

#2767

Unfortunately, I didn't think another no kill would even happen at this point. That part doesn't make sense to me at all, which makes me think... has mafia even been able to make nightkills since punk chat entered the thread?

#2768

Wait a second... jailkeeps protect people, right?

#2769

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:29 pm Wait a second... jailkeeps protect people, right?

If this is the case, could mafia have tried attacking Alison the night before last?

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #2770

the way you talk about TL in these posts is rubbing me wrong in a way that I think means TL is town and you/TSP are the mafia and you're trying to pocket him with a narrative and maybe bus TSP or maybe not idk

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #2771

[VOTE: hyena] aubergine

#2772

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:30 pm the way you talk about TL in these posts is rubbing me wrong in a way that I think means TL is town and you/TSP are the mafia and you're trying to pocket him with a narrative and maybe bus TSP or maybe not idk

Shit, I dunno. I'm just a hyena.

#2773

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:31 pm [VOTE: hyena] aubergine

NUTELLA NO FRIENDO

#2774

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:32 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:31 pm [VOTE: hyena] aubergine

NUTELLA NO FRIENDO

DON'T, I MEAN!!

#2775

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:30 pm the way you talk about TL in these posts is rubbing me wrong in a way that I think means TL is town and you/TSP are the mafia and you're trying to pocket him with a narrative and maybe bus TSP or maybe not idk

I dunno though. I felt pretty hopeless after Quin flipped town. I could have defaulted to thinking TL is mafia, but, like, I felt like the game would have been over if that was the case. Like, I didn't see the point in TL still wanting to work with me if they're mafia.

#2776

For real though, does being jailkept protect you from attacks?

#2777

Also, you don't have to worry about me self-voting. That's probably a bad idea right now, lol.

#2778

Hyena said a lot of stuff

#2779

#2780

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:18 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:15 pm Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.
Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.

I think “wolves shoot at tsp hit vest wolves shoot at Alison / are Alison and run into jail / wolves shoot at Nutella and Nutella got doctored by the only potential TP role in the game (my nonlethal action)” isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility

#2781

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:37 pm For real though, does being jailkept protect you from attacks?

I mean it’s a mysterious world and Nanook won’t tell me exactly what my power does but you can’t target someone who’s locked up, so I think it’s JK esque?

#2782

So it should protect from kill

#2783

Okay, there’s one team that doesn’t require there to still be a lost wolf: Nutella/Alison. Every other team I think requires someone to be very lost, and that opens up the possibilities.

#2784

In Nutella Alison world LC is the lost wolf and gets shot because oops

#2785

In any other scum world Nutella has to be the lost wolf and maybe is immune to shots from wolves?

#2786

So mechanically Nutella teams don’t make as much sense.

#2787

BUT Nutella lost wolf has a really good reason to not shoot Alison: Alison has been locked up for two days, there have been no kills.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #2788

....maybe it's hyena/alison.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #2789

that makes me feel something

#2790

In any case we have to kill the block-access wolf first

#2791

If there’s a block access wolf

#2792

Okay I’ll lose to Nutella Alison I guess, there’s a block access wolf

#2793

I’m still sort of feeling the “hyena/TL haven’t found each other” train. Or even TL is pretty sure but can’t say it just in case. And they don’t have a kill cause something

#2794

Okay I think it’s 2 of TL/Alison/Hyena with maybe an outside possibility of a lost wolf Nutella just being very confused

#2795

I think in order of likelihood:
TL/Hyena (lost kill, probably)
TL/Alison (shot me double blocked kill, note TL argued against Alison block N5 apparently?)
Alison/Hyena
And then Nutella things

#2796

I think TL clearing Hyena is pretty much always either w/w or a TMI ish thing. Sometimes it’s an actual pocket, but I think about he post “I don’t want to admit he’s pocketed me”. That’s what a wolf says when they realize they’ve been clearing a mischop opportunity.

#2797

TL Alison solves all the blanks too but it requires Alison lost wolf (interactions with Vul/LC) which doesn’t jive with my preconceived notions

#2798

Like Alison and Vul cannot both be wolves who know of each other’s existence read what Vul said

#2799

OH BUT

#2800

@TL @Hyena I need recollections of what went down the night Alison was blocked in scumchat. You say that you both agreed and Quin dissented?

Were you mystified?