The Hobbit Mafia: Day 12

[Captain Bunny Killer]

If Mongoose had teemmates who knew she would survive a lynch (and knew that surviving a lynch would look suspicious, given our roles), wouldn't they just vote for her to look good?

This is the point I was making as well.

Ok, that post you quoted got me thinking, and I looked back over the Mongoose theories. Help me out here. I totally get that a lynch survival looks really suspicious, but I'm not sold on the teammates thing. The prevailing theory seems to be that the teammates could have provided the lynch stop (unless it was Mongoose herself). But why would they stop a lynch and all vote for her? Surely they would know we'd all be super suspicious, so it would have to be knowingly sacrificing a teammate, and even helping it along. I just can't see them going from "no one is listening to llama" to "ok let's throw her to the wolves and give ourselves credit"... or just make everyone way more edgy. If they saw that the votes were suddenly coming in for her (and why were they?), why wouldn't they just do the standard throwing under the bus and just seal her fate and their supposed civviness?

Don't get me wrong. I agree that there were certainly baddies in the vote, but why is it impossible that it's the classic jump in where someone not on your team is already getting the votes?

For now, this makes me lean more towards the Smaug theory, but I'm still not even sure I'm voting for her. The problem is that, though it would be great to get rid of Smaug, it's another easy bandwagon for the baddies.

linki: @Boogs: I'll say it again. Mongoose had way more votes than a whole baddie team before anyone started voting for you, and any even semi-experienced Mafia player would know that a failed dog-pile lynch would look really suspicious. It's possible that a baddie voted for you, just as it's possible that baddies voted for Mongoose, because they try to blend into existing suspicions (which is why I've suspected you). I think these points make it unlikely that a baddie team tried to vote you out. But, as I've mentioned above, I'm not sure that the baddies were thinking about Mongoose as a teammate at all.

[Russtifinko]

Here is my Wood Elf submission, which will only make sense to people familiar with both the Hobbit and Pushing Daisies.

I give you Ned, King of the Woodland Pie Shop:

I cant see your picture! Anyone else having that issue?

[Turnip Head]

I think Mongoose is more likely to be Gollum than Smaug or a goblin. Gollum likely has The One Ring, which could explain Mongoose's disappearance/escape from the Day 4 lynch. Given the way the past two votes have gone, I think poor Goosey is more likely to be living in a cave pitiful and alone than she is to have any teammates.

[>SpaghettiEverywhere]

Here is my Wood Elf submission, which will only make sense to people familiar with both the Hobbit and Pushing Daisies.

I give you Ned, King of the Woodland Pie Shop:

I cant see your picture! Anyone else having that issue?

i cannot see it either

[kneel4justice]

I voted for Mongoose again.
I did not like her response to being lynched where she randomly said she wanted to vote me or something like that, she didn't even give reason.

[DFaraday]

Here is my Wood Elf submission, which will only make sense to people familiar with both the Hobbit and Pushing Daisies.

I give you Ned, King of the Woodland Pie Shop:

I cant see your picture! Anyone else having that issue?

i cannot see it either

Hmm, I'll try again.


And if that doesn't work, here's the URL http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=uuemq&s=8

[Russtifinko]

Here is my Wood Elf submission, which will only make sense to people familiar with both the Hobbit and Pushing Daisies.

I give you Ned, King of the Woodland Pie Shop:

I cant see your picture! Anyone else having that issue?

i cannot see it either

Hmm, I'll try again.


And if that doesn't work, here's the URL http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=uuemq&s=8

The url worked. Haha! I like that a lot. We have some really strong submissions for this contest.

[thellama73]

If Mongoose had teemmates who knew she would survive a lynch (and knew that surviving a lynch would look suspicious, given our roles), wouldn't they just vote for her to look good?

This is the point I was making as well.

Ok, that post you quoted got me thinking, and I looked back over the Mongoose theories. Help me out here. I totally get that a lynch survival looks really suspicious, but I'm not sold on the teammates thing. The prevailing theory seems to be that the teammates could have provided the lynch stop (unless it was Mongoose herself). But why would they stop a lynch and all vote for her? Surely they would know we'd all be super suspicious, so it would have to be knowingly sacrificing a teammate, and even helping it along. I just can't see them going from "no one is listening to llama" to "ok let's throw her to the wolves and give ourselves credit"... or just make everyone way more edgy. If they saw that the votes were suddenly coming in for her (and why were they?), why wouldn't they just do the standard throwing under the bus and just seal her fate and their supposed civviness?

Don't get me wrong. I agree that there were certainly baddies in the vote, but why is it impossible that it's the classic jump in where someone not on your team is already getting the votes?

For now, this makes me lean more towards the Smaug theory, but I'm still not even sure I'm voting for her. The problem is that, though it would be great to get rid of Smaug, it's another easy bandwagon for the baddies.

linki: @Boogs: I'll say it again. Mongoose had way more votes than a whole baddie team before anyone started voting for you, and any even semi-experienced Mafia player would know that a failed dog-pile lynch would look really suspicious. It's possible that a baddie voted for you, just as it's possible that baddies voted for Mongoose, because they try to blend into existing suspicions (which is why I've suspected you). I think these points make it unlikely that a baddie team tried to vote you out. But, as I've mentioned above, I'm not sure that the baddies were thinking about Mongoose as a teammate at all.

It's a good point, CBK. I'll have to think about it.

My guess is that people were actually starting to listen to me, and at some point they saw a Mongoose lynch as inevitable and tried to save her. Then, the piling on allowed for a near unanimous vote with no clues to differentiate one voter from another.

My guess is that the timing of the votes coming in caused them to make a tactical error by using their lynch save, only later realizing that they should have just thrown her under the buss. Another possibility is thta her role has a power that they really wanted to use for one more day and thought it was worth it.

[Mongoose]

My guess is that the timing of the votes coming in caused them to make a tactical error by using their lynch save, only later realizing that they should have just thrown her under the buss. Another possibility is thta her role has a power that they really wanted to use for one more day and thought it was worth it.

I have a blunderbuss I'd like you to take for a spin.

[thellama73]

My guess is that the timing of the votes coming in caused them to make a tactical error by using their lynch save, only later realizing that they should have just thrown her under the buss. Another possibility is thta her role has a power that they really wanted to use for one more day and thought it was worth it.

I have a blunderbuss I'd like you to take for a spin.

They didn't have that technology in the Hobbit.

[Mongoose]

So am I dead?

[Bullzeye]

I think it kinda goes without saying at this point but I'm gonna vote Mongoose. I don't buy her claims of not knowing how she survived the lynch, the comment of 'if someone saved me' just doesn't make sense because she'd know she either saved herself or someone else must have. Plus suggesting the baddies may have saved her to keep a suspicious person around, anyone would know that baddies don't do that for non-teammates.

[Vompatti]

So am I dead?

You will be sorely missed.

[Leamiteo]

@A Person: So you voted for me but haven't so much as addressed me or even mentioned me in any posts. What gives?

[A Person]

@A Person: So you voted for me but haven't so much as addressed me or even mentioned me in any posts. What gives?

i thought today was the last day of the poll so i voted randomly

[Captain Bunny Killer]

[img]http://s1284.photobucket.com/user/krist ... sort=1&o=0[/img]

"Yay! I'm an Elf!" - A Self-Portrait. I basically just drew a goofy picture of me and added elf ears, because this is how excited I would be about being an elf, except elves don't wear glasses or have undignified looks.

Hopefully this works. We'll see.

[Captain Bunny Killer]

[thellama73]

Actually being able to draw is cheating. Disqualified!

[thellama73]

In the interest of fairness...

[Captain Bunny Killer]

[Leamiteo]

@A Person: So you voted for me but haven't so much as addressed me or even mentioned me in any posts. What gives?

i thought today was the last day of the poll so i voted randomly

But without any mention of anything? Surely you realized after the fact that the poll wasn't up.

[Leamiteo]

I love this so much. And I miss your face.

[reywaS]

I wish I could draw. I can't though.

[A Person]

@A Person: So you voted for me but haven't so much as addressed me or even mentioned me in any posts. What gives?

i thought today was the last day of the poll so i voted randomly

But without any mention of anything? Surely you realized after the fact that the poll wasn't up.

i figured it doesn't make any differnce wit hthe current votes

[Mongoose]

So am I dead?

You will be sorely missed.

Ugh I've thought it was Thursday all day. I still am dead though.

[A Person]

So am I dead?

You will be sorely missed.

Ugh I've thought it was Thursday all day. I still am dead though.

i'm not the only one! I didn't feel like beating a decidedly unhorselike dead horse so I didn't vote for you I hope you're not bad though or this post will look bad D:

[Mongoose]

So am I dead?

You will be sorely missed.

Ugh I've thought it was Thursday all day. I still am dead though.

i'm not the only one! I didn't feel like beating a decidedly unhorselike dead horse so I didn't vote for you I hope you're not bad though or this post will look bad D:

You are going to be very glad you didn't when you see who I am/not. Good job, hoss. Listen to Lizzy, I think she has some good insights this game.

[Russtifinko]

IMPORTANT HOST NOTICE

I am traveling to Norway tomorrow to start a two-week study abroad course. So we will see how it goes with Night 5; it may be extended to be a 48-hour night period. I would still prefer if you all voted and got your actions in by the usual 24-hour deadline, and then if I have the opportunity to post, I will.

The game will then continue to roll on. It's possible there will be delays of a few hours on host posts at times while I am in Norway, and I may go so far as to change poll end times, but I will try to avoid changing things around too much.

Now back to your previously scheduled lynching.

[thellama73]

What part of Norway? I went to Trondheim once.

[reywaS]

I studied Norway on a map once.

[Mongoose]

Can you hop on over to Finalnd while you are there and say hello to Vomperdoodle?

[Russtifinko]

What part of Norway? I went to Trondheim once.

Bergen! Cool, what's Trondheim like?

Can you hop on over to Finalnd while you are there and say hello to Vomperdoodle?

I would love to! I doubt I'll have time, though. I'm actually going further away from him, since I'm in Gothenburg, Sweden right now. Maybe we can convince him to come to me instead.

[thellama73]

What part of Norway? I went to Trondheim once.

Bergen! Cool, what's Trondheim like?

Beautiful. Much further north than Bergen. Good fjords, beautiful churches, amazing bacon-wrapped sausages on every corner, unfriendly people.

[Lizzy]

I would love to! I doubt I'll have time, though. I'm actually going further away from him, since I'm in Gothenburg, Sweden right now. Maybe we can convince him to come to me instead.

I'm jealous. I miss Sweden. Even though I wouldn't exactly call Malmö representative of Sweden. And dang! It's still weird to see Göteborg spelt like that.

[Lizzy]

Well, tell us everything you know that we don't, Lizzy. I think that's only fair. Start with an easy one. Who are your BTS buddies?

It's a secret k.

And if that doesn't work, here's the URL http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=uuemq&s=8

:O You win. But then again I might be a bit biased towards ThranduLeeNed. ;D
Have you checked out Halt and Catch Fire yet? I'm not sure if I enjoy it because it's a good quality show or just because I may have turned into a Lee fangurl. :\ His acting is still top notch. So there's that!

You are going to be very glad you didn't when you see who I am/not. Good job, hoss. Listen to Lizzy, I think she has some good insights this game.

Uhm... I think I messed things up quite a bit thus far, and my insight and instincts are not to be trusted. :\ That said, I don't think you are bad, however, the evidence suggests you are not good either. :\

[Snow Dog]

Don't feel good about Boogs so voted for he.

[Vompatti]

Don't feel good about Boogs so voted for he.

Same.

[Boogs]

Don't feel good about Boogs so voted for he.

I think I find it very helpful that you chose to vote Mongoose yesterday and today you switch ships to me. Almost as if maybe you knew she was going to survive and wanted to blend in, Snow?

[Boogs]

Not to mention you were the last voter for Mongoose also.. Blendy much?

[insertnamehere]

OK, let's run down the possibilities here.

1. Mongoose is Smaug.

This is a possibility, but not an extremely strong one. If Mongoose survives a second lynch, this would look much more likely.

2. Mongoose has a role with secrets that protects her from a lynch.

Another possibility, but not large enough to dissuade me from voting her.

3. Mongoose is civ, saved herself, but was told not to state how she was saved.

Mongoose is about to possibly get lynched over this, I think she would spill the beans at this point.

4. Mongoose was saved by her team or BTSC partner.

This seems the most likely to me, but there are multiple teams at play here. Of course, she could be from the Goblin Town Goblins, but also the Wood Elves. I'd prefer to get rid of the former, but wouldn't beat myself up too bad if we got the latter. There are a couple of civ roles that give BTSC, but I feel like Mongoose would at least hint if that was the case. Some may ask why the baddies would save a teammate in such an obvious way. I think that they are trying to frame her as Smaug.

I'm going to vote for Mongoose. Whether she survives or not, we'll learn a lot.

[Leamiteo]

So am I dead?

You will be sorely missed.

Ugh I've thought it was Thursday all day. I still am dead though.

i'm not the only one! I didn't feel like beating a decidedly unhorselike dead horse so I didn't vote for you I hope you're not bad though or this post will look bad D:

Or your baddie teammates.

[Leamiteo]

IMPORTANT HOST NOTICE

I am traveling to Norway tomorrow to start a two-week study abroad course. So we will see how it goes with Night 5; it may be extended to be a 48-hour night period. I would still prefer if you all voted and got your actions in by the usual 24-hour deadline, and then if I have the opportunity to post, I will.

The game will then continue to roll on. It's possible there will be delays of a few hours on host posts at times while I am in Norway, and I may go so far as to change poll end times, but I will try to avoid changing things around too much.

Now back to your previously scheduled lynching.

No way! I have a friend from Norway; he's from Porsgrunn.

[Leamiteo]

I have to vote now, lunch is almost over. I'm voting for llama again, not that it makes a difference a this point. Mongoose is a gonner (unless she is in fact Smaug or unlynchable for some other reason.

*votes!*

[Hedgeowl]

Dont want to miss this with an appt later. The only way it wprks currently is if mongoose is Smaug or not on a team or her team has given up on her.

Votess my fav gooose.

[Russtifinko]

What part of Norway? I went to Trondheim once.

Bergen! Cool, what's Trondheim like?

Beautiful. Much further north than Bergen. Good fjords, beautiful churches, amazing bacon-wrapped sausages on every corner, unfriendly people.

Cool! I'm hoping for all those things in Bergen too haha.

I would love to! I doubt I'll have time, though. I'm actually going further away from him, since I'm in Gothenburg, Sweden right now. Maybe we can convince him to come to me instead.

I'm jealous. I miss Sweden. Even though I wouldn't exactly call Malmö representative of Sweden. And dang! It's still weird to see Göteborg spelt like that.

Malmö = Danmark + falafel :P

[Vompatti]

OK, let's run down the possibilities here.

1. Mongoose is Smaug.

This is a possibility, but not an extremely strong one. If Mongoose survives a second lynch, this would look much more likely.

2. Mongoose has a role with secrets that protects her from a lynch.

Another possibility, but not large enough to dissuade me from voting her.

3. Mongoose is civ, saved herself, but was told not to state how she was saved.

Mongoose is about to possibly get lynched over this, I think she would spill the beans at this point.

4. Mongoose was saved by her team or BTSC partner.

This seems the most likely to me, but there are multiple teams at play here. Of course, she could be from the Goblin Town Goblins, but also the Wood Elves. I'd prefer to get rid of the former, but wouldn't beat myself up too bad if we got the latter. There are a couple of civ roles that give BTSC, but I feel like Mongoose would at least hint if that was the case. Some may ask why the baddies would save a teammate in such an obvious way. I think that they are trying to frame her as Smaug.

I'm going to vote for Mongoose. Whether she survives or not, we'll learn a lot.

Your style of blog presentation is very attractive.The meaningful contribution of your mind reflects on those people who are looking for new ideas and informations regarding BFG Tech 680-Watt LS-680 Power Supply.

[insertnamehere]

OK, let's run down the possibilities here.

1. Mongoose is Smaug.

This is a possibility, but not an extremely strong one. If Mongoose survives a second lynch, this would look much more likely.

2. Mongoose has a role with secrets that protects her from a lynch.

Another possibility, but not large enough to dissuade me from voting her.

3. Mongoose is civ, saved herself, but was told not to state how she was saved.

Mongoose is about to possibly get lynched over this, I think she would spill the beans at this point.

4. Mongoose was saved by her team or BTSC partner.

This seems the most likely to me, but there are multiple teams at play here. Of course, she could be from the Goblin Town Goblins, but also the Wood Elves. I'd prefer to get rid of the former, but wouldn't beat myself up too bad if we got the latter. There are a couple of civ roles that give BTSC, but I feel like Mongoose would at least hint if that was the case. Some may ask why the baddies would save a teammate in such an obvious way. I think that they are trying to frame her as Smaug.

I'm going to vote for Mongoose. Whether she survives or not, we'll learn a lot.

Your style of blog presentation is very attractive.The meaningful contribution of your mind reflects on those people who are looking for new ideas and informations regarding BFG Tech 680-Watt LS-680 Power Supply.

Thanks Vomps, that means a lot to me.

[Marmot]

OK, let's run down the possibilities here.

1. Mongoose is Smaug.

This is a possibility, but not an extremely strong one. If Mongoose survives a second lynch, this would look much more likely.

2. Mongoose has a role with secrets that protects her from a lynch.

Another possibility, but not large enough to dissuade me from voting her.

3. Mongoose is civ, saved herself, but was told not to state how she was saved.

Mongoose is about to possibly get lynched over this, I think she would spill the beans at this point.

4. Mongoose was saved by her team or BTSC partner.

This seems the most likely to me, but there are multiple teams at play here. Of course, she could be from the Goblin Town Goblins, but also the Wood Elves. I'd prefer to get rid of the former, but wouldn't beat myself up too bad if we got the latter. There are a couple of civ roles that give BTSC, but I feel like Mongoose would at least hint if that was the case. Some may ask why the baddies would save a teammate in such an obvious way. I think that they are trying to frame her as Smaug.

I'm going to vote for Mongoose. Whether she survives or not, we'll learn a lot.

Your style of blog presentation is very attractive.The meaningful contribution of your mind reflects on those people who are looking for new ideas and informations regarding BFG Tech 680-Watt LS-680 Power Supply.

Thanks Vomps, that means a lot to me.

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[Lizzy]

Malmö = Danmark + falafel :P

But it has a turning torso.

[Lizzy]

Sorry, Goosey, but the way I see it, it's between a potential baddie and a potential cereal killer, and the latter seems to be winning by a landslide.