Bike [END]

[TonyStarkPrime]

lol. implying that everyone here doesn’t know dizzy is an amazing player

straight night kill analysis probably points to MR, so second order analysis points to martin. or was it the other way around I don't remember

[Marmot]

straight night kill analysis probably points to MR<snip>

Why?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Yeah, but it could be Radish too? Why not keep the vote on Guillo if you’re Made and you already decided to bus Guillo earlier? Why switch off the last second to try and make a wagon on Radish if Radish is town and Guillo is scum, when it didn’t look particularly likely Radish was going to get yeeted anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Unless they are literally all the scum team lol

I think it looks worse for Radish than for Guillo the more I think about it.

I’ll answer your question with another question

If made and guillo are both mafia which would you prefer survive D1?

Wouldn’t care much, personally. Both.

Why is this a relevant question?

I think guillo would be a lot preferable to made in most teams, if one of them has to die guillo probably has a better chance of being in it for the long haul


How is this not a relevant question when we’re considering why made would switch to radishes

Are you suggesting Made switched to make themselves get yeeted over Guillo? If so, I’m not buying it at all. Madectried to survive by accounts of their last ditch effort.

Also, Made and Guillo haven’t played with each other. I don’t see why they would have a preference of one over the other at all. It just makes more sense that if it’s Made/Guillo with Radish as town, then it would be much more likely that Made would just keep their vote on Guillo to set up his team for success than do a switch to Radish.

I stand by my analysis that if Guillo is scum, it’s with exactly Radish. Radish could be scum without Guillo.

But I take it you disagree? Though I’m not clear on how your analysis go.

this argument

[TonyStarkPrime]

which is worth thinking about in this situation I suppose

[Marmot]

Fun fact: MR has only voted two people so far this game: himself and Guillo.

That doesn't really help much.

[TonyStarkPrime]

it's my lot in life to stay vote parked on MR while openly town reading him

[TonyStarkPrime]

vote: long con

[TonyStarkPrime]

it can't be epi

[TonyStarkPrime]

crash and burn team is an interesting thought, I think it still maintains some strength

[TonyStarkPrime]

i want everyone in this game right now to tell me I'm town so I can confirm my biases

[Hally]

you’re town

[Marmot]

i want everyone in this game right now to tell me I'm town so I can confirm my biases

you're cute

[TonyStarkPrime]

that's not a deliberate stance

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm only half joking there's a particular reason for this

[TonyStarkPrime]

tutuu doesn't have to participate I know she's still in denial

[tutuu]

oh

was dizzy n1'd over me and hally because he's from perc and seanzie is from perc so he feared his reputation the most

gotta be honest I thought this was a good reason to shoot hally

can you elaborate?

[Marmot]

tsp = Tea & Scone Pile

[TonyStarkPrime]

oh

was dizzy n1'd over me and hally because he's from perc and seanzie is from perc so he feared his reputation the most

gotta be honest I thought this was a good reason to shoot hally

can you elaborate?

mostly a joke but Dizzy did at a few points appear to harbor a tinfoil suspicion of Hally. Dizzy dying thus makes me confirm my tinfoil suspicion of hally.

[Hally]

dizzy always as a tinfoil suspicion on me. i’m me

[Hally]

if you knew our dynamic better you would know that’s normal for us. he respects my wolf game a lot (and i respect his) so he often harbors some degree of tinfoil about me. it’s kind of just A Thing

[TonyStarkPrime]

i know this i have been in and specced multiple games with both of you

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm tinfoiling you for reasons completely unrelated to dizzy's death, if you're worried about it

[Hally]

i don’t see why i wouldn’t kill dizzy N1 though, if i’m being perfectly honest. i don’t always when i’m scum but in this game i probably would (though it would depend on who my teammate was)

but i think pretty much anyone else would also kill dizzy first after D1, so

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think dizzy n1 is pretty much the simplest and easiest n1 kill here; I don't think there's any other choice really. Dizzy getting n1ed is commonplace.there are some game state questions about who would have had the awareness to know that and all but I don't think it matters much

[TonyStarkPrime]

vilkagery mindmeld with hally but I'm a wolf so therefore it's a wolfy mindmeld so hally wolf confirmed

[Hally]

I'm tinfoiling you for reasons completely unrelated to dizzy's death, if you're worried about it

i’m not really worried about it, no. if i thought you could be scum i would care more but i don’t so you can do whatever

if you want to talk to me about anything though feel free

[TonyStarkPrime]

(ftr if we're thinking about it... /i/ don't kill dizzy n1)

[Hally]

vilkagery mindmeld with hally but I'm a wolf so therefore it's a wolfy mindmeld so hally wolf confirmed

damn gg i guess i’m outed

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm tinfoiling you for reasons completely unrelated to dizzy's death, if you're worried about it

i’m not really worried about it, no. if i thought you could be scum i would care more but i don’t so you can do whatever

if you want to talk to me about anything though feel free

how are you feeling about this game right now? I've sorta seen you as a status quo defender, do you think everything feels about right?

[Hally]

(ftr if we're thinking about it... /i/ don't kill dizzy n1)

yea, you’d kill nanook

[TonyStarkPrime]

(ftr if we're thinking about it... /i/ don't kill dizzy n1)

yea, you’d kill nanook

if I were a wolf I also wouldn't kill nanook

[Hally]

I'm tinfoiling you for reasons completely unrelated to dizzy's death, if you're worried about it

i’m not really worried about it, no. if i thought you could be scum i would care more but i don’t so you can do whatever

if you want to talk to me about anything though feel free

how are you feeling about this game right now? I've sorta seen you as a status quo defender, do you think everything feels about right?

i don’t really think i’ve defended the status quo. i just have yet to see anything that has significantly shaken my view of the game other than you being vig, and i just accordingly to that by removing you from my poe and trying to get others to as well. if anything i think someone like marmot is more of a status quo defender because he seems to want you in the poe

but just looking at what’s happened in the game so far, i sheeped my two strongest town reads (dizzy and tutuu) onto someone i didn’t town read and that person flipped scum, confirming to me that my town reads on dizzy and tutuu are very likely correct. then dizzy dies N1 and flips town. nanook who i town read dies and flips town

so really nothing that has happened so far this game has run counter to my expectations other than you being very likely town for your role. it’s not that i feel perfectly comfortable with where things are so much as i feel like i need another flip in my poe in order to truly evaluate if my view needs to change

does that make sense?

[Hally]

*adjusted, not just

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm tinfoiling you for reasons completely unrelated to dizzy's death, if you're worried about it

i’m not really worried about it, no. if i thought you could be scum i would care more but i don’t so you can do whatever

if you want to talk to me about anything though feel free

how are you feeling about this game right now? I've sorta seen you as a status quo defender, do you think everything feels about right?

i don’t really think i’ve defended the status quo. i just have yet to see anything that has significantly shaken my view of the game other than you being vig, and i just accordingly to that by removing you from my poe and trying to get others to as well. if anything i think someone like marmot is more of a status quo defender because he seems to want you in the poe

but just looking at what’s happened in the game so far, i sheeped my two strongest town reads (dizzy and tutuu) onto someone i didn’t town read and that person flipped scum, confirming to me that my town reads on dizzy and tutuu are very likely correct. then dizzy dies N1 and flips town. nanook who i town read dies and flips town

so really nothing that has happened so far this game has run counter to my expectations other than you being very likely town for your role. it’s not that i feel perfectly comfortable with where things are so much as i feel like i need another flip in my poe in order to truly evaluate if my view needs to change

does that make sense?

if there's someone not in your poe who's a wolf who is it

[Hally]

i also feel the game has stagnated quite a lot in general. as in, nobody’s view of the game seems to have changed much since after made’s flip. and when things aren’t really progressing much it’s harder for me to reevaluate where i am

[TonyStarkPrime]

And yes, I understand. I think this is a reasonable view on the current game state and it is probably comparable to how I feel

[TonyStarkPrime]

i also feel the game has stagnated quite a lot in general. as in, nobody’s view of the game seems to have changed much since after made’s flip. and when things aren’t really progressing much it’s harder for me to reevaluate where i am

sometimes the game stagnates cause you arrive at the end

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm /very/ concerned that this game is going to go like abdimals did where the chops all seem predestined and largely on obvious townies who need to be chopped to rid the poe of them

[Hally]

I'm tinfoiling you for reasons completely unrelated to dizzy's death, if you're worried about it

i’m not really worried about it, no. if i thought you could be scum i would care more but i don’t so you can do whatever

if you want to talk to me about anything though feel free

how are you feeling about this game right now? I've sorta seen you as a status quo defender, do you think everything feels about right?

i don’t really think i’ve defended the status quo. i just have yet to see anything that has significantly shaken my view of the game other than you being vig, and i just accordingly to that by removing you from my poe and trying to get others to as well. if anything i think someone like marmot is more of a status quo defender because he seems to want you in the poe

but just looking at what’s happened in the game so far, i sheeped my two strongest town reads (dizzy and tutuu) onto someone i didn’t town read and that person flipped scum, confirming to me that my town reads on dizzy and tutuu are very likely correct. then dizzy dies N1 and flips town. nanook who i town read dies and flips town

so really nothing that has happened so far this game has run counter to my expectations other than you being very likely town for your role. it’s not that i feel perfectly comfortable with where things are so much as i feel like i need another flip in my poe in order to truly evaluate if my view needs to change

does that make sense?

if there's someone not in your poe who's a wolf who is it

well if i thought someone outside my poe was a wolf they wouldn’t be outside my poe

the people i’ve cleared are you, tutuu, jules and sean. epi honestly might be out of my poe too, so i guess him? i don’t know though

[TonyStarkPrime]

talk to me about sean

[Hally]

I'm /very/ concerned that this game is going to go like abdimals did where the chops all seem predestined and largely on obvious townies who need to be chopped to rid the poe of them

do you think martin is an obvious townie? or who would you chop instead? you’re voting long con. can you talk to me about that?

[Hally]

talk to me about sean

a few things

- i don’t think the way made town read him looked partner-y. dizzy agreed, which makes me feel better about that

- i actually think sean had a good EoD1 despite it being objectively bad optics-wise because i doubt a wolf would make those posts in that spot with a teammate on the block

- i’ve generally found that sean’s posts feel like genuine attempts at solving to me, and again, dizzy shared this view

[tutuu]

oh

was dizzy n1'd over me and hally because he's from perc and seanzie is from perc so he feared his reputation the most

gotta be honest I thought this was a good reason to shoot hally

can you elaborate?

mostly a joke but Dizzy did at a few points appear to harbor a tinfoil suspicion of Hally. Dizzy dying thus makes me confirm my tinfoil suspicion of hally.

hm alright. i thought its weird that you said thought in past tense as if you were considering shooting hally on n1, you werent supposed to know dizzy would have died then. but i guess the meaning could also be that you thought (past tense) earlier this day

i still think its a bit weird, "i thought this was". why "i thought this was" instead of "i thought this is"?

idk whatever

so, the restriction of your vig is that your target must claim that they townread u huh?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm /very/ concerned that this game is going to go like abdimals did where the chops all seem predestined and largely on obvious townies who need to be chopped to rid the poe of them

do you think martin is an obvious townie? or who would you chop instead? you’re voting long con. can you talk to me about that?

I sorta empathize with martin's position. it's very easy for me to think of him as town. I don't think he is for sure, there are a whole lot of reasons to think otherwise in this gamestate. I think Long Con is a bit of a weird case. He's generally on target, but seems to me like the most likely wolf outside of the martin/mr duo. Just seems like the best vote for me to try to keep the game from staying stuck.

[TonyStarkPrime]

oh

was dizzy n1'd over me and hally because he's from perc and seanzie is from perc so he feared his reputation the most

gotta be honest I thought this was a good reason to shoot hally

can you elaborate?

mostly a joke but Dizzy did at a few points appear to harbor a tinfoil suspicion of Hally. Dizzy dying thus makes me confirm my tinfoil suspicion of hally.

hm alright. i thought its weird that you said thought in past tense as if you were considering shooting hally on n1, you werent supposed to know dizzy would have died then. but i guess the meaning could also be that you thought (past tense) earlier this day

i still think its a bit weird, "i thought this was". why "i thought this was" instead of "i thought this is"?

idk whatever

so, the restriction of your vig is that your target must claim that they townread u huh?

yes it's because I'm insecure

[TonyStarkPrime]

anyone who says good things must be a lying wolf etc

[juliets]

I am awake but haven't started looking at individual people yet. I echo the thoughts about Martin, I feel bad for him because my vote there is based on Guillo's behavior and there is nothing he can do about that. I'm still happy with my vote there at this point.

My worst fear is that LC or even Epi could be bad. I've played with them both for years and I know how tricky they are to read. I didn't see Epi say how he felt about LC - did anyone else see that? I'm not wild about Epi's vote as I look at it this morning, it feels OMGUS. I will take a look at Sean today but like I said yesterday as he has posted I've felt good about him.

I'll be in and out today a good bit and should be here at EOD. Don't forget all, EOD is before 6, it's like 5:47 pm est.

[Marmot]

How am I a status quo defender?

[Marmot]

I'm not even sure what you mean by that.

[Marmot]

I tinfoil Hally, but that's mainly because snowmelts made a post that looked like tmi.