Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[DkKoba]

meta is trash

Cases are scummy

mafia is bad

nth

[DkKoba]

good pagetop

[Esooa]

I think we have the votes for this
[VOTE: Esooa] aubergine

this is such blatant flailing after calling out ur team my dude

you seem confident in that

yes, ur play is so bad and scummy right now that I seriously doubt I'm gonna reconsider you unless you **maybe** flip town and even then I'll probably consider you scum

[MacDougall]

I haven't got an updated list sorry.

can u just spitball from memory where u would put ppl u have at least above null confidence on

Esooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town

[nutella]

@nutella do you still like my case at least?

I do, but I also found esooa a bit towny today and feel less likely she's teamed with lc tbh.

In any case I'm staying on lc today

[JaggedJimmyJay]

thanks btw @staypositivefriend for sharing your doubts about Ellie suspicion. i understand what you mean, and i don't have a great deal of confidence in this chop either.

long con is here and ellie is not, and it's difficult to determine to what extent that colors things

[nutella]

i will say that ellie, made, and DOOM all being on the LC wagon makes me feel uneasy. i am skeptical of all 3 of those slots being town

I'm pragmatic. I'll move if it means y'all can vote in a way that makes more sense. Ellie is voting in self defense. I don't think that's AI. I really don't see how Ellie is bad here (or at least worst than LC/Essoa)

this person is teamed with Ellie

eh maybe idk

[nutella]

i will say that ellie, made, and DOOM all being on the LC wagon makes me feel uneasy. i am skeptical of all 3 of those slots being town

I'm pragmatic. I'll move if it means y'all can vote in a way that makes more sense. Ellie is voting in self defense. I don't think that's AI. I really don't see how Ellie is bad here (or at least worst than LC/Essoa)

this person is teamed with Ellie

we could both be town, yes.

y'all this feels off. What's happened since Mac's case last night that's made ellie look worse than LC?

it does feel off but idk idk idk

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i think part of my difficulty parsing this game stems from a bunch of overconfident teammate association theories lol

[nutella]

god i do keep feeling good about esooa's posts though and what if she's just right about ellie

[MacDougall]

This game is gonna go like this

The Mafia are strong and will survive d1
I will get shot
Mafia will stomp

Given this foregone conclusion I'm gonna phone in the rest of the day.

[Esooa]

i will say that ellie, made, and DOOM all being on the LC wagon makes me feel uneasy. i am skeptical of all 3 of those slots being town

I'm pragmatic. I'll move if it means y'all can vote in a way that makes more sense. Ellie is voting in self defense. I don't think that's AI. I really don't see how Ellie is bad here (or at least worst than LC/Essoa)

this person is teamed with Ellie

eh maybe idk

he is literally making up bullshit about Ellie. Her vote was NEVER SELF PRES at all in any sense, he's trying to say some shit about it not being AI cause LC is gonna flip town and her pushing him is gonna look awful and he needs to defend her rn too

[Michelle]

I think i will go to sleep, and come back one hour becore sod at 4 am.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

we still have over five hours. there's space to calm the blood flow and think

[DkKoba]

I haven't got an updated list sorry.

can u just spitball from memory where u would put ppl u have at least above null confidence on

Esooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town

tf is "scummy town"

[nutella]

i'm considering switching to ellie, but i honestly got townvibes from the way she engaged w/the thread last night

if you could point to/describe that i'd appreciate it, or to wherever you may have already said it

all of these posts pinged me as being town-indicative last night:

ellie, you said earlier that you were 100% sure that there's a mafia within me and michelle

do you still feel that way? if so, why haven't you pursued or talked about that angle recently? it does not seem that your current reads are being influenced by the extremely confident read you outed like 24 hours ago

nah im at lime 30% now. honestly i dont think either of you are but im too ego to completely admit i was at fault lol

also mac, i dont think youre scum. ignore that post i made like, 2 pages back. i was just curious about its reaponses(not that it got any....)

But yeah, I majored in wagonomic in undergrad guys I got this:

So LC is odd for getting a lot of votes and those votes kinda dissolving is a great look for Ellie if LC flips scum, and a bad look for people who switch off him, especially if they started the wagon.

If Ellie is bad clear spf, LC, and essoa. There’s no reason for a clump of votes to appear there from a baddie team, especially at this point

From this I get if Ellie is mafia LC is town and if LC is baddie Ellie is town.

Please update your reads accordingly.
More at 11.

I take issue with the bolded especially but this post more generally. I am one of the people who moved from LC to Ellie. Esooa and LC were already there. LC has every right to be there and never moved from himself to Ellie. Esooa had never voted LC either. So literally the only person who is voting for Ellie that was on LC is me. So you are essentially saying Ellie looks great if LC flips scum because Mac moved from LC to Ellie. This only makes sense if I am mafia but you aren't pushing me. This is a surface level analysis designed to bury LC and protect Ellie. You are mafia.

I have an easy gambit: bake LC today and if he flips town quick-bake me tomorrow, if he's mafia everyone is happy. I dont think there's much risk there for town.

And you should be happy with this unless youre partnered with LC, but like, people werent saying that at the beginning of the game were they?

it's likely because all of these posts show both a willingness to re-consider her perspective as well as an attitude that runs slightly contrary to a self-preservation mindset

but looking further, these posts aren't really as towny as they felt ~in the moment~ to me. it might be a mistake to favor some perceived micro towntells over ellie's game being scummy holistically

ehh i have reservations about all those posts

[MacDougall]

@nutella do you still like my case at least?

I do, but I also found esooa a bit towny today and feel less likely she's teamed with lc tbh.

In any case I'm staying on lc today

Esooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.

[nutella]

fuck i might move to ellie



but what about my confidence on lc/desire to resolve him at least

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[staypositivefriend]

the grogu wagon still has plenty of room. i'm parking my vote there until i can feel good about a vote outside of him

[MacDougall]

I haven't got an updated list sorry.

can u just spitball from memory where u would put ppl u have at least above null confidence on

Esooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town

tf is "scummy town"

It couldn't be more obvious really could it

[Esooa]

god i do keep feeling good about esooa's posts though and what if she's just right about ellie

lemme just say it's pretty blatant why Made is suddenly taking bad scummy positions when Ellie becomes top wagon

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This game is gonna go like this

The Mafia are strong and will survive d1
I will get shot
Mafia will stomp

Given this foregone conclusion I'm gonna phone in the rest of the day.

this is disrespectful

[nutella]

@nutella do you still like my case at least?

I do, but I also found esooa a bit towny today and feel less likely she's teamed with lc tbh.

In any case I'm staying on lc today

Esooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.

ok but what about ellie

[MacDougall]

fuck i might move to ellie



but what about my confidence on lc/desire to resolve him at least

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Gg

[DaughterOfOmega]

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

[DkKoba]

I haven't got an updated list sorry.

can u just spitball from memory where u would put ppl u have at least above null confidence on

Esooa mafia
Alison mafia
LC mafia
Jay lean mafia
DoO and Ellie scummy town
Grogu lol
Nutella lock town
Nanook lean town
SPF lean town
Koba, Michelle lean town
Made scummy town

tf is "scummy town"

It couldn't be more obvious really could it

I don't use that kind of term no, ive only heard it in newbie games on MS.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill

[Made]

the grogu wagon still has plenty of room. i'm parking my vote there until i can feel good about a vote outside of him

I'm always iffy to vote on grogu like wagons. They feel like copouts. anyway it spins, I much rather Ellie die than grogu at this point

[MacDougall]

@nutella do you still like my case at least?

I do, but I also found esooa a bit towny today and feel less likely she's teamed with lc tbh.

In any case I'm staying on lc today

Esooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.

ok but what about ellie

Im not gonna argue with the entire thread. I'm just one Mac. If everyone wants to kill her over the howling wolves because they post good then good for them.

[DaughterOfOmega]

Koba are you the person I talked to on discord before christmas?

Not sure if the same person

[nutella]

If you wanna kill Ellie fine. If she flips town and I die just come back to my content. I've got better things to do than argue with wolves about their alignment.

Mac, i've all the respect in the world for what you're capable of as a town player.

please show others the same respect. if we're stupid ass morons, then guide us there accordingly. nicely.

I have not been disrespectful here Jay. Show me where I was.

i don't feel as though you've respected what i can do as a town player in this dialogue. i don't think you intend that, but it can be a byproduct of your response to "my case isn't getting traction"

Because I am scumreading you.

mac dont jump the shark

[Michelle]

I think we have the votes for this
[VOTE: Esooa] aubergine

this is such blatant flailing after calling out ur team my dude

you seem confident in that

yes, ur play is so bad and scummy right now that I seriously doubt I'm gonna reconsider you unless you **maybe** flip town and even then I'll probably consider you scum

There is one single player from whom i may consider such post as towny but he is not playing this game and his meta is unique.
Idk what to do with my read on Esooa.

[Esooa]

@nutella do you still like my case at least?

I do, but I also found esooa a bit towny today and feel less likely she's teamed with lc tbh.

In any case I'm staying on lc today

Esooa is very good at sounding town. I am not suspect her for not sounding town.

ok but what about ellie

Im not gonna argue with the entire thread. I'm just one Mac. If everyone wants to kill her over the howling wolves because they post good then good for them.

awooooooo

[Esooa]

LMAO

[Made]

If you wanna kill Ellie fine. If she flips town and I die just come back to my content. I've got better things to do than argue with wolves about their alignment.

Mac, i've all the respect in the world for what you're capable of as a town player.

please show others the same respect. if we're stupid ass morons, then guide us there accordingly. nicely.

I have not been disrespectful here Jay. Show me where I was.

i don't feel as though you've respected what i can do as a town player in this dialogue. i don't think you intend that, but it can be a byproduct of your response to "my case isn't getting traction"

Because I am scumreading you.

mac dont jump the shark

even i'm pretty iffy on JJJ at this point

[staypositivefriend]

okay, so here's my complete thinking:

players that are bad based on my reading: JJJ, Michelle, and on the low Alison
players that are bad because people i think are good think they're bad: SPF, LC
players that are bad based on PoE: DoO

From here, i looked at the polls and the direction the threads been moving.

LC started with a bunch of votes, but those votes disolved. that's sus for lc
Ellie lead the vote out of nowhere. that's sus for the voters there
alison not being in thread while voting LC: good look if LC is bad
DoO has no votes, but has been talked about significantly: that's a bad look for people who said she's bad if she's bad, but null if she's good

i don't think i can solve this game by myself, but I can try to optimize the outcome to learn the most. I feel like at this point (in order from most to least) I'd learned the most from these bakings

LC
Michelle
SPF
DoO
JJJ
Alison

so like i think JJJ is super sus, but if he's not bad, i'm wrong I don't think town learns much from that lynch.

not a science, but these are the kinds of dynamics going on in the black box that is my mind.

I would now like to open the floor to questions and discussions.

it worries me slightly that made's vote is not on any of the people he claimed would give him the most information if they were chopped

[DaughterOfOmega]

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill

Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memes

but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes

I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second

[Michelle]

Someone ruined the tie

Spoiler: show

Who would you like to bake today?
Poll runs till Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


Alison
0
No votes
Voters: None
DaughterOfOmega
0
No votes
Voters: None
DkKoba
0
No votes
Voters: None
EllieDelight
6
38%
Voters: tutuu, JaggedJimmyJay, Michelle, Esooa, Long Con, Alison
Esooa
2
13%
Voters: Made, DkKoba
Grogu
1
6%
Voters: staypositivefriend
JaggedJimmyJay
0
No votes
Voters: None
Long Con
4
25%
Voters: nutella, EllieDelight, MacDougall, DaughterOfOmega
MacDougall
0
No votes
Voters: None
Made
1
6%
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Michelle
1
6%
Voters: Grogu
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
0
No votes
Voters: None
nutella
0
No votes
Voters: None
staypositivefriend
0
No votes
Voters: None
tutuu
0
No votes
Voters: None
No Bake
0
No votes
Voters: None
Unvote
0
No votes
Voters: None
I'm a gluten fiend (Host, Mods, Nonplayers)
1
6%
Voters: Marmot
Total votes: 16

[DaughterOfOmega]

Honestly I'd think about killing Made as well, based solely off the fact his reads are so wild to me. I don't see any reason to kill the people he listed.

[Made]

okay, so here's my complete thinking:

players that are bad based on my reading: JJJ, Michelle, and on the low Alison
players that are bad because people i think are good think they're bad: SPF, LC
players that are bad based on PoE: DoO

From here, i looked at the polls and the direction the threads been moving.

LC started with a bunch of votes, but those votes disolved. that's sus for lc
Ellie lead the vote out of nowhere. that's sus for the voters there
alison not being in thread while voting LC: good look if LC is bad
DoO has no votes, but has been talked about significantly: that's a bad look for people who said she's bad if she's bad, but null if she's good

i don't think i can solve this game by myself, but I can try to optimize the outcome to learn the most. I feel like at this point (in order from most to least) I'd learned the most from these bakings

LC
Michelle
SPF
DoO
JJJ
Alison

so like i think JJJ is super sus, but if he's not bad, i'm wrong I don't think town learns much from that lynch.

not a science, but these are the kinds of dynamics going on in the black box that is my mind.

I would now like to open the floor to questions and discussions.

it worries me slightly that made's vote is not on any of the people he claimed would give him the most information if they were chopped

this was because of mac's Esooa/LC theory. Esooa wasn't in my radar at that point, I'd go back to LC if there's the vote for it, but I don't see people shifting to it, and I don't really think LC's behavior is super scummy in of itself

[JaggedJimmyJay]

anyone who knows Esooa:

should i care about her claiming mafia?

i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking

[Esooa]

anyone who knows Esooa:

should i care about her claiming mafia?

i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking

I can link you many town games I do the same

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill

Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memes

but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes

I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second

Honestly I'd think about killing Made as well, based solely off the fact his reads are so wild to me. I don't see any reason to kill the people he listed.

alrighty. would you say ellie is a town read?

[nutella]

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill

Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memes

but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes

I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second

good

[DkKoba]

mac if ur so sure esooa is scum why wont u vote esooa rn

[nutella]

anyone who knows Esooa:

should i care about her claiming mafia?

i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking

mac addressed this

[MacDougall]

anyone who knows Esooa:

should i care about her claiming mafia?

i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking

I suppose I don't get to give you my take here even though I probably have better meta on her than anyone.

[DaughterOfOmega]

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill

Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memes

but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes

I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second

Honestly I'd think about killing Made as well, based solely off the fact his reads are so wild to me. I don't see any reason to kill the people he listed.

alrighty. would you say ellie is a town read?

I'm not sure I'd call it a town read, just more of everytime I've come across an ellie post, I feel fine about it

[Esooa]

mac if ur so sure esooa is scum why wont u vote esooa rn

koba ur actually so annoying lol you literally have <rand ability to read me and you can't realize you should maybe back off yet

[Esooa]

anyone who knows Esooa:

should i care about her claiming mafia?

i usually ignore it. i know it means nothing for spf. but i dunno, worth asking

I suppose I don't get to give you my take here even though I probably have better meta on her than anyone.

and simultaneously a worse read on me than anyone this game?