Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[nutella]

what's the best reason to townread nanook?

I've honestly forgotten lol. Like there was a point I had him as lock town based on his D1 but I don't know that I can articulate why and that may be a bad sign? I think it was sort of generally his flow on D1 felt like the way he approaches the game when he's truly uninformed and he showed his particular brand of uninformed perspective and attitude that he has as town (kind of a dgaf, go with the flow kind of thing) but I think that's something he can certainly fake as scum as well, and I've only had more and more concerns about his slot as the game has gone on.

yeah lol, i had him at about locktown territory throughout the majority of day one but i find it impossible to put into words why beyond simply: "vibes", and that concerns m-

halfway through writing this post, i remembered that nanook did have a moment earlier in the day where he came in extremely cynical about esooa's alignment, and then gradually and silently began to tr her as he let their interactions marinate. it felt like an authentic process to me. so while i do have concerns about nanook, i do at least have ~some~ reason for him to be town

yeah i remember that

i just skimmed his very first several posts from d1 where he townlocked both me and dk super early and also got "pocketed" by you and tutuu, and when he started defending michelle, and it all sounds pretty genuine but i'm also able to see an interpretation where he's wolf and taking advantage of some people

[nutella]

I think I need to be more cautious with clearing people for vibing and mindmelds. Like I feel it's pretty common for there to be a deepwolf in someone like Alison or SPF who gets by on fake mindmelds with townies and generally latching onto their thought processes and pocketing them by engineering themself to be in lockstep with them. It's an easy way to get manipulated and I think I'm pretty susceptible to falling for it (though I'm also susceptible to paranoia to a harmful extent sometimes as well and it's such a hard balance to strike).

Anyway I say this because at various points I've thought "no way I vibe THIS much with everything this person is saying they just HAVE to be town" for several different players this game -- SPF, Alison, Esooa -- those three primarily; tutuu and jay to lesser extents. And now I'm thinking, in a potential world where Michelle is town, I specifically want to question the processes I shared with SPF and Esooa on our read progressions toward Michelle, and really should consider that some of it could have been engineered to ring genuine to me and "team up" with me to get Michelle chopped (and later show doubt and reevaluate as both esooa and spf have now done and what if it's tmi after all and aaaaa). Idk this is a complex thought I'm having and I should probably let it marinate. I think even regardless of Michelle's alignment it's possible I've been pocketed in this way by one of them and I'm not sure how to rat it out except by being cautious with my reasoning for clearing them.

i think this is a good thought to have, and you should continue pursuing it even if it means tinfoiling me

ok

[staypositivefriend]

People are rethinking vibe town reads, I am in trouble

u might be

could you please give me a general overview of the reads u have right now?

[nutella]

People are rethinking vibe town reads, I am in trouble

you and grogu are a different kind of vibe town read that is in some ways stronger tbh

[nutella]

i was gonna go to bed but apparently it's "skim spf's grasslands iso and become ultra paranoid" hour

[nutella]

honestly seeing a lot of parallels but i'm sure i would also find parallels in her town games confbias go brrr

[staypositivefriend]

i was gonna go to bed but apparently it's "skim spf's grasslands iso and become ultra paranoid" hour

nice

that'll prolly make you townread me more because my tone in grasslands was hilariously stilted

[nutella]

i was gonna go to bed but apparently it's "skim spf's grasslands iso and become ultra paranoid" hour

nice

that'll prolly make you townread me more because my tone in grasslands was hilariously stilted

I swear I'm noticing some of the same turns of phrase you have used this game lmao

[Alison]

I woke up at 3am and can't get back to sleep. Skimmed the thread briefly.

I am excited to see what Michelle does with this brand new poll.

Morning, i saw the poll and i wanted to read the thread to understand what exactly happened.

I have in mind that Ellie was displeased with my lynch, iirc asking why am I close to hammer (i will check her Iso for the quote because memory is tricky) but she is strongly advocating me to be in the Poe.
The same, Grogu except the fact he is funny and with cute avatar, has a frozen read on me that he cannot explain.
If, like you said, Nutella is town, SPF is town and Esooa is town, in other words if i am so idiot that i al 100% wrong, then the first people with unexplained and odd stanced are Ellie and Grogu.
Though, i thought Ellie is villager because of the fast growing wagon on her, but the wagon contains too many town reads so the logic it's not aplicabile.
Town LC was in hammer range, 2 counter wagons emerged, on Ellie and Made.
Which one of them had an early day 1 wagon who dissipated?
I have to check.

After breakfast, sorry i have to live too
Brb

This post is more in line with what I expect to see from town Michelle, wrt fluidity of reads and changing her view when those views are questioned. She's moving past the "nutella/Esooa/SPF are lockscum" line and is fleshing out thoughts about other players (eg. noting Ellie not wanting her to die but hard POEing her).

This + the long post about meta which rang as genuine - Esooa's argument about her being anxious that we solve the game after her greenflip being a towntell work to make me feel better about Michelle.

[nutella]

I mean

I phrased that in a way that makes it sound unremarkable, you're the same person of course you have the same turns of phrase

But like

rhetorical points, i guess? and ways of approaching things

[staypositivefriend]

Nutella, Koba, Michelle, Nanook are my lock towncore atm. SPF, Made and Tutuu have invites pending outcomes.

a very very small point that points me toward ellie is the fact that mac showed a willingness to locktown both michelle and made - it would be a little wacky if made/michelle killed one of their most ardent defenders

[staypositivefriend]

I mean

I phrased that in a way that makes it sound unremarkable, you're the same person of course you have the same turns of phrase

But like

rhetorical points, i guess? and ways of approaching things

yeah i try to make my scumhunting sound like a replica of how i scumhunt as town when i roll mafia, so that's probably reflected in certain angles i took

the main difference, imo, is that my scumhunting in my town game is fluid & paranoid & malleable, whereas i can only do a poor imitation of paranoia as scum

[nutella]

Nutella, Koba, Michelle, Nanook are my lock towncore atm. SPF, Made and Tutuu have invites pending outcomes.

a very very small point that points me toward ellie is the fact that mac showed a willingness to locktown both michelle and made - it would be a little wacky if made/michelle killed one of their most ardent defenders

im having a very complex reaction to the fact that you posted this thought

[Alison]

Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

[DaughterOfOmega]

Who asked me reads?

I am fairly confident that Ellie is mafia.

Made/Michelle less so, but have small things that are scummy.

I think Ellie's partners is more like Nanook+1

[staypositivefriend]

Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

would you mind giving a brief overview of your current POE? i'd be interested to see how aligned we are

[nutella]

Who asked me reads?

I am fairly confident that Ellie is mafia.

Made/Michelle less so, but have small things that are scummy.

I think Ellie's partners is more like Nanook+1

cool stuff ty

[Alison]

Who asked me reads?

I am fairly confident that Ellie is mafia.

Made/Michelle less so, but have small things that are scummy.

I think Ellie's partners is more like Nanook+1

Can you give me a POE or list of candidates for the +1?

[staypositivefriend]

a small point of paranoia about Dkkoba: in the last game i played with Dkkoba where we were both town, they aggressively hardtunneled me and fos'd me throughout the day - eventually culminating in me getting mischopped

so the fact that they've let me off so easy this game is weird lmao....i expected more paranoia

[staypositivefriend]

actually.....

a koba scum world would explain a lot of things...

[Michelle]

Omellette was good, now i will skip the last posts vibe to go back to my quotes.
Ftr every time when someone who wanted to kill me with fire starts to reconsiderate it gives me a feeling of unhealthy paranoia so i need to let marinate the last posts from Nutella before talking about them

@Michelle, a tidbit in response to your request for [if you're green] views that I figure is important to you: if you're town, my first instinct will probably still be that nutella is town. Maybe that's stupid of me, but I think she looks the part. I'll Look At Stuff and we'll see, but that's a read I am going to struggle to turn around on for the time being.

Game would be unfun if reads would be so easy. All i can promise is to reset my reads and start from scratch.

I have to think more at why Mac died.
Sometimes townies are that wrong that they are locking someone they know and they got killed to not re-evaluate .
Sometimes they are killed for best reads.
Either way the answer is in Mac's iso.
I want to read it with prority.

[Alison]

Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

would you mind giving a brief overview of your current POE? i'd be interested to see how aligned we are

If Michelle is town then I'm leaning more to an Ellie/Made/+1 team. Candidates for +1 are... DOOM, I guess? Everyone else is townie. I guess I can see why the middle slots are being tinfoiled now, since someone has to be mafia and there seem to be decent reasons to townread everyone else.

[nutella]

it's weird bc there have been times in this thread where spf has absolutely been the person who i've vibed with the most and a large number of her posts have had me nodding along and mindmelding

and yet i have had this constant, occasionally diminished but ever present feeling deep in my gut that she's just scum this game and setting up as the deepwolf

and skimming her grasslands iso has really strengthened that feeling rn

and i feel it with occasional posts of hers directed at other ppl, like she's broadening the poe, or strengthening her position by appearing comfortable


i think i won't really ever put this feeling to rest and strongly believe she should be resolved before lylo

[nutella]

actually.....

a koba scum world would explain a lot of things...

shit like this aaaaa

[nutella]

Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

would you mind giving a brief overview of your current POE? i'd be interested to see how aligned we are

If Michelle is town then I'm leaning more to an Ellie/Made/+1 team. Candidates for +1 are... DOOM, I guess? Everyone else is townie. I guess I can see why the middle slots are being tinfoiled now, since someone has to be mafia and there seem to be decent reasons to townread everyone else.

yeah i reeeaalllyyyy think it's not that easy lol

[Alison]

a small point of paranoia about Dkkoba: in the last game i played with Dkkoba where we were both town, they aggressively hardtunneled me and fos'd me throughout the day - eventually culminating in me getting mischopped

so the fact that they've let me off so easy this game is weird lmao....i expected more paranoia

I don't get this; why would Koba tunnel you again just because they tunnelled you last time? If anything the fact that you were a green flip last time would discourage them from going so hard this time, right?

[staypositivefriend]

what i understand about koba's scum meta is that they are very interested in doing 4d chess strategies and they are very interested in how they are being perceived/the level of towncred theyre going to get on each day

if we assume for a moment that we live in a michelle!town world, then koba's approach to today puts them in an extremely good position that they can reap towncred from without getting their hands dirty

koba has consistently stated with a high level of confidence that michelle is town:

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

also im fairly sure michelle is town.
her intent in her posts feel towny

ok there was this analyiss post from michelle i really likea bt the mac kill and then also i say her VCA which i totally vibed with cuz she seems to be the only one who is looking for scum on wagons here based on what im reading which is something i am also doing.

like ignoring nightkills/wagon composition is something scum tend to do.

i cba to case ppl bc of the post volume but the vibes are there and the vibes are strong.

koba has consistently flaunted their townread on michelle and emphasized that they think that she's going to flip town

but at the same time, their attitude toward the michelle chop has been relatively ....apathetic. they have been pushing outside, but they also seem to take michelle's lynch as somewhat of an inevitability:

michelle can u promise me u wont self hammer please

they've tried to prevent michelle from being hammered too quickly, but they haven't done anything specific to change the course of the chop

instead, they've been speculating that michelle will flip town while trying to create wagons on players that are realistically never going to happen today (nutella, tutuu)

so is it possible for all of this to be coming from koba!town? absolutely

but what i'm saying is that from a koba!scum worldview (where michelle is assumed town), they've positioned themselves perfectly to get towncred from michelle's flip without meaningfully changing the course or the direction of the game

as someone who knows koba as a player who will raise absolute hell if the game is going in a direction they dislike, this somewhat apathetic approach to michelle's chop concerns me. it could simply be that they feel they don't have the clout necessary to get a chop on anyone else - but surely they are aware that a nutella/tutuu chop isn't going to happen today

i'm going to let this read simmer for a while and see how it feels, but this is something worth thinking about

[staypositivefriend]

a small point of paranoia about Dkkoba: in the last game i played with Dkkoba where we were both town, they aggressively hardtunneled me and fos'd me throughout the day - eventually culminating in me getting mischopped

so the fact that they've let me off so easy this game is weird lmao....i expected more paranoia

I don't get this; why would Koba tunnel you again just because they tunnelled you last time? If anything the fact that you were a green flip last time would discourage them from going so hard this time, right?

every game i've ever seen from koba has included a high level of tunneling & aggressiveness - which makes their casual attitude toward me kind of paranoid, even if it's possible that they've just learned how to read me better after mistunneling me

[Alison]

yeah i reeeaalllyyyy think it's not that easy lol

There was a point in time I felt strongly that the game was easy. Michelle suddenly becoming really townie, and the fact that I can't find a good candidate for the +1 in easy world, points away from that. But I doubt the easy world is 100% incorrect, and the original reasoning I had for it still stands. So we start from there and develop as flips and content come in.

[nutella]

but what i'm saying is that from a koba!scum worldview (where michelle is assumed town), they've positioned themselves perfectly to get towncred from michelle's flip without meaningfully changing the course or the direction of the game

as someone who knows koba as a player who will raise absolute hell if the game is going in a direction they dislike, this somewhat apathetic approach to michelle's chop concerns me. it could simply be that they feel they don't have the clout necessary to get a chop on anyone else - but surely they are aware that a nutella/tutuu chop isn't going to happen today

hmm

yeah idk i thought about it earlier and didn't think i saw their push on me coming from scum

but this is worth considering i guess

but also what alison said lol your paranoia of koba mostly just adds to my current strength of feeling you're scum

[staypositivefriend]

it's weird bc there have been times in this thread where spf has absolutely been the person who i've vibed with the most and a large number of her posts have had me nodding along and mindmelding

and yet i have had this constant, occasionally diminished but ever present feeling deep in my gut that she's just scum this game and setting up as the deepwolf

and skimming her grasslands iso has really strengthened that feeling rn

and i feel it with occasional posts of hers directed at other ppl, like she's broadening the poe, or strengthening her position by appearing comfortable


i think i won't really ever put this feeling to rest and strongly believe she should be resolved before lylo

do you think there's anything i could do in this game to make you locktown me? i don't mean this snarkily - i'm genuinely curious

[nutella]

a small point of paranoia about Dkkoba: in the last game i played with Dkkoba where we were both town, they aggressively hardtunneled me and fos'd me throughout the day - eventually culminating in me getting mischopped

so the fact that they've let me off so easy this game is weird lmao....i expected more paranoia

I don't get this; why would Koba tunnel you again just because they tunnelled you last time? If anything the fact that you were a green flip last time would discourage them from going so hard this time, right?

every game i've ever seen from koba has included a high level of tunneling & aggressiveness - which makes their casual attitude toward me kind of paranoid, even if it's possible that they've just learned how to read me better after mistunneling me

i guess they just found a new target in me to tunnel and after i flip town they'll know not to tunnel me next game and find someone else and the cycle will continue

[staypositivefriend]

but what i'm saying is that from a koba!scum worldview (where michelle is assumed town), they've positioned themselves perfectly to get towncred from michelle's flip without meaningfully changing the course or the direction of the game

as someone who knows koba as a player who will raise absolute hell if the game is going in a direction they dislike, this somewhat apathetic approach to michelle's chop concerns me. it could simply be that they feel they don't have the clout necessary to get a chop on anyone else - but surely they are aware that a nutella/tutuu chop isn't going to happen today

hmm

yeah idk i thought about it earlier and didn't think i saw their push on me coming from scum

but this is worth considering i guess

but also what alison said lol your paranoia of koba mostly just adds to my current strength of feeling you're scum

if we live in a world where michelle/ellie/made has scum that ISN'T michelle, then it would make sense why koba!scum wouldn't want to push on ellie/made and would instead want to push on an "impossible" chop

but i dont know how well this is gonna hold up to scrutiny

[nutella]

it's weird bc there have been times in this thread where spf has absolutely been the person who i've vibed with the most and a large number of her posts have had me nodding along and mindmelding

and yet i have had this constant, occasionally diminished but ever present feeling deep in my gut that she's just scum this game and setting up as the deepwolf

and skimming her grasslands iso has really strengthened that feeling rn

and i feel it with occasional posts of hers directed at other ppl, like she's broadening the poe, or strengthening her position by appearing comfortable


i think i won't really ever put this feeling to rest and strongly believe she should be resolved before lylo

do you think there's anything i could do in this game to make you locktown me? i don't mean this snarkily - i'm genuinely curious

i can't really think of anything at the moment, would depend on later circumstances i guess

[staypositivefriend]

here is koba's ISO from the game where they hardtunneled me as town, just to give some context to the concerns i'm having: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/se ... id=9609336

[Alison]

Yeah I'm not seeing the case: if Koba as town is tunnelly, aggressive, and raises hell over the game going in a way they don't like, then they've fit that meta this game from what I've seen. You quote the "Michelle plz don't self hammer" post as an indicator of apathy, but that's a single post taken out of context. I was there when Koba did that, and they felt like they were genuinely trying to push the game away from a Michelle exe, pleading with me to re-evaluate and restate my case on Michelle, and so forth.

[nutella]

but what i'm saying is that from a koba!scum worldview (where michelle is assumed town), they've positioned themselves perfectly to get towncred from michelle's flip without meaningfully changing the course or the direction of the game

as someone who knows koba as a player who will raise absolute hell if the game is going in a direction they dislike, this somewhat apathetic approach to michelle's chop concerns me. it could simply be that they feel they don't have the clout necessary to get a chop on anyone else - but surely they are aware that a nutella/tutuu chop isn't going to happen today

hmm

yeah idk i thought about it earlier and didn't think i saw their push on me coming from scum

but this is worth considering i guess

but also what alison said lol your paranoia of koba mostly just adds to my current strength of feeling you're scum

if we live in a world where michelle/ellie/made has scum that ISN'T michelle, then it would make sense why koba!scum wouldn't want to push on ellie/made and would instead want to push on an "impossible" chop

but i dont know how well this is gonna hold up to scrutiny

i guessssss

i just think it's more likely they're town that genuinely doesn't vibe with me rather than scum who think they can even remotely push me; i think scum would recognize that i'm pretty widely towncleared here and not a wise place to push (but the unfamiliarity argument could go both ways there i guess, a scum team with people who don't know me as well could just be out of touch with that consensus and try to push me)

[nutella]

here is koba's ISO from the game where they hardtunneled me as town, just to give some context to the concerns i'm having: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/se ... id=9609336

those mu search links never work could you just link the game (idk if i'll actually look at it just pointing it out lol)

[Alison]

I'm having mixed feelings about this SPF push on Koba and not sure whether to ding her for trying to widen the POE or give her points for townie paranoia.

[nutella]

Yeah I'm not seeing the case: if Koba as town is tunnelly, aggressive, and raises hell over the game going in a way they don't like, then they've fit that meta this game from what I've seen. You quote the "Michelle plz don't self hammer" post as an indicator of apathy, but that's a single post taken out of context. I was there when Koba did that, and they felt like they were genuinely trying to push the game away from a Michelle exe, pleading with me to re-evaluate and restate my case on Michelle, and so forth.

yeah

[nutella]

I'm having mixed feelings about this SPF push on Koba and not sure whether to ding her for trying to widen the POE or give her points for townie paranoia.

there have been other smaller points where i thought she was making steps toward broadening the poe and this is just a more fleshed out one

I really think if you're starting to consider who may be a deeper wolf, spf is the place to start

[staypositivefriend]

Yeah I'm not seeing the case: if Koba as town is tunnelly, aggressive, and raises hell over the game going in a way they don't like, then they've fit that meta this game from what I've seen. You quote the "Michelle plz don't self hammer" post as an indicator of apathy, but that's a single post taken out of context. I was there when Koba did that, and they felt like they were genuinely trying to push the game away from a Michelle exe, pleading with me to re-evaluate and restate my case on Michelle, and so forth.

i would not characterizes koba's reaction to the michelle chop as "raising hell" - i see some light attempts to convince people that don't have very much effort behind them. i don't feel the conviction in koba's defense of michelle, and they usually carry conviction in spades

[staypositivefriend]

here is koba's ISO from the game where they hardtunneled me as town, just to give some context to the concerns i'm having: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/se ... id=9609336

those mu search links never work could you just link the game (idk if i'll actually look at it just pointing it out lol)

ooh damn, it's this game lol https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... -Tactics-1

[Alison]

Actually the Koba/Ellie/Made team doesn't make sense to me because it would mean that all three of them exposed themselves and kamikaze'd a townie who's never getting exed, which doesn't really make sense to me in that context. Ellie and Made were hard POE'd at that point in time, it doesn't make sense for them to call in their deepwolf to yell and push a slot that isn't going anywhere. I could see Koba quietly joining the Michelle wagon in that world, or burying Ellie/Made for cred, but opposing Michelle + pushing nutella would be a really weird thing to do if that's the team.

[nutella]

I have some similar concerns about Esooa as well and Mac's read plays some influence in that but overall I've felt more comfortable calling her town

[staypositivefriend]

I'm having mixed feelings about this SPF push on Koba and not sure whether to ding her for trying to widen the POE or give her points for townie paranoia.

if i was interested in widening the poe then i would be pushing on nanook, or jagged, or even you - not on a player that's been consensus "spewed clear" town from the very beginning of the game. if i was interested in getting people paranoid about koba, it would also be a lot more subtle

[staypositivefriend]

anyway, i'm not married to my read on koba, but my concerns about their approach in this game compared to my typical experiences with them are still pertinent, and i'm glad that i'm exploring it. i would like to hear esooa's thoughts on this read in particular, because she's probably the only person here who has a solid baseline for how koba plays as mafia

[nutella]

I'm having mixed feelings about this SPF push on Koba and not sure whether to ding her for trying to widen the POE or give her points for townie paranoia.

if i was interested in widening the poe then i would be pushing on nanook, or jagged, or even you - not on a player that's been consensus "spewed clear" town from the very beginning of the game. if i was interested in getting people paranoid about koba, it would also be a lot more subtle

you just said that when you're scum you do your best to imitate how you would really scumhunt soooo

[Alison]

Actually the Koba/Ellie/Made team doesn't make sense to me because it would mean that all three of them exposed themselves and kamikaze'd a townie who's never getting exed, which doesn't really make sense to me in that context. Ellie and Made were hard POE'd at that point in time, it doesn't make sense for them to call in their deepwolf to yell and push a slot that isn't going anywhere. I could see Koba quietly joining the Michelle wagon in that world, or burying Ellie/Made for cred, but opposing Michelle + pushing nutella would be a really weird thing to do if that's the team.

For context, Made was also pushing nutella at the same time, and I find it unlikely he'd ask a deepwolf to join him in that push, which goes nowhere and makes them look bad if he ever flips. The whole scum team jointly stacking on a townie is a play I've seen before, but only on people that might actually die.

[nutella]

oh hey 5000 neat