Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I get the process of elimiation y'all executing here, but like this game is an abnormality just generally.

is it really that impossible anyone is playing outside of their scum range???

it's not a very scientific approach, and i typically hate science, but moments like now make it pretty useful.

I don't get the attachment to the EOD d2 state of the game i'm feeling in thread rn

If Alison or SPF is a mafioso, I think they've played a brilliant game. That's why they weren't getting chopped earlier.

But I don't care about what's "possible" really. I care about what seems the most likely to me. Anything is possible. I could consider all of that until my head spins off of my neck. If you're right about someone and I am wrong, then I will need your help to get there. This post I am responding to feels more like paranoia to me than like grounded suspicion. But if you have concrete suspicions of tutuu or nutella or Esooa that don't relate to power role stuff, then please let me have them. I'm all ears.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

“Playing outside of their scum range” is a useless judgment tool imo

Much more interesting/helpful to look at probability.

Is it *possible* that nutella is mafia? Sure, anything is possible. Is it *probable* that this is the game she figures out how to near perfectly mimic her town game and fool several people who know her game really well? No, it isn’t very probable at all.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i demand a town read for that crosspost nanook

[Michelle]

hmm

I believe there are only four setups that allow town to prevent a kill - A, 3, B, 2 (role blocker or jailkeeper). Only cuts the matrix in half, but whatever it's something. The mafia may know the setup now or have it narrowed down to a couple.

Should be A, 3, D, 2

Correct, and with the cop claim i think we shrink them

Roleblocker claims cause it’s a red

JK holds unless they’re about to die

Yes

thanks for the save doc

same tho


seriously i was so hoping to die goddammit

Wifom..

but since ellie was town i may have been right on michelle after all

idk kinda inclined to go made first from that result though

Imagine i said long ago that day 1 wagons showed me that LC and Ellie were not bad and also i suspected Made too, just by the way the wagons formed.
Now you keep ignoring the fact 2 already flipped green and what you are doing is constructing a new wrong reasoning on me, and from the claim on Made too
How could i see this as not wolfy @JaggedJimmyJay ?
You were with Nutella is town, explain me how.

i think made is the most probable hit with the info we have

What info?

im still onto spf but maybe less so with ellie's flip? idk i literally have not thought one iota about this game in 24 hours, been quite occupied

Again a post who gives me bad vibes

jay and nook still have ~*~equity~*~

+1 bad post

part of the appeal of flipping Made is that it ought to say a lot about Nanook. he and i have both been on Made much of both days and ended up on the other POE wagon because why not

Info lynch is not what we should do, come on.

alison....... urgh. gotta consider the possibility shes wolfing in this kind of gamestate

i think one more day/flip will be helpful for figuring that out tho

Nutella is going through a pretty large Poe without solid analysis. I don't like this.

[Esooa]

Town
Made
Michelle
nutella
DkKoba

Likely town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
JaggedJimmyJay


PoE, ordered

tutuu
DaughterOfOmega
Grogu
Alison
staypositivefriend

[nutella]

Btw I didn't make this clear but I'm p much at jay and nook are town again and apologize for the silliness earlier, brain is mush tonight

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Btw I didn't make this clear but I'm p much at jay and nook are town again and apologize for the silliness earlier, brain is mush tonight

we good, bread spread

[Esooa]

scum case against spf: Lagged behind on everything yesterday, didn't push the game in any direction. Scum!spf is content, doesn't want to push anywhere, but at the same time cautious, to avoid TMI'ing in the heavy discussion of who between these 3 towns are scum. There's probably more. But this is enough imo

[Made]

Spoiler: show

I'm gonna be honest, my townread on you is fading. I poked holes in your reasoning to see if you'd change your views, but you're rigidly holding to them and clutching at straws (eg. "yes this is out of nutella's usual scum range but what if she magically became 5x better at scum overnight???") to cling onto them.

To me one of the strengths of town Michelle's play is that you have the ability to be fluid with your reads and boldly re-assess them if you think it will help you get a more accurate view of the game. When I was wolfing against you in Simpsons and 8 Ball, you went from townreading me to suddenly getting pinged my a post of mine and ran me up really fast, which messed with my plans. That showed a fluidity of thought and an ability to make sudden, sharp changes in reads when you realized you've gone wrong. In contrast, your lines of reasoning here are stiff and resistant to being swayed by logic. This would make sense if you, eg. realized that your wacky reads are drawing townreads because of their contrarian nature, and are trying to stick to them as steadfastly as possible in the hopes of projecting conviction and maintaining those townreads on you.

Also, why would all the wolves pile on you simultaneously like that, potentially exposing themselves/forming links between each other later on that could spew them red, just to get you exed when you were already in the POE and not widely trusted anyway?

For the reasoning you are exposing here.
For being illogical from villagery perspective.
All of them are perfectly capable to do this

No clue about Esooa and SPF but this isn't in nutella's wolf range. She doesn't mind game that deep when she's scum. Can you show me a game that makes you think this behavior is in nutella's scum range?

@staypositivefriend I want to know

do you actually think posting the what, at least 7 paragraphs of solving off the cuff that I just did is in my scum range?

I wish I was still in my mafia range. I'm overrated.

mood

^^^ these are all the post the come up about range aside from post concerning myself, michelle, and any of the dead players

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am not really suspicious of DkKoba at all. They're in my POE because I have room for them, but I couldn't tell you what makes them suspicious. "too much tunneling nutella" if I squeeze hard enough

[staypositivefriend]

anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

[nutella]

Michelle those were not great posts I didn't think through stuff just spitting out thoughts lol. Jay and nook I'm back to town on, and you too, and I have reasons in my iso for spf and lesser alison paranoia.

[DaughterOfOmega]

I got you SPF no worries

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tutu is hitting all her town markers so I’m townreading her. Will not reconsider until fx

Nutella is playing her town game imo, mac had her town, I *think* LC had her town, just marking her town and not thinking about it until fx

Made, cop claim, obvious is obvious

Michelle is green checked, it’s wildly optimal to accept this as gospel and not reconsider until fx

That’s five out of 12, so need two more

Esooa is one

Idk who the other one is yet, it’s currently between spf and dk I think, maybe jay in a long shot depending on how today and tomorrow play out. Probably need to figure this out a bit more but here we are

All of this is contingent on a rollblock claim obviously, that would help things a bunch

[nutella]

Town
Made
Michelle
nutella
DkKoba

Likely town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
JaggedJimmyJay


PoE, ordered

tutuu
DaughterOfOmega
Grogu
Alison
staypositivefriend

Yes

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Tutu is hitting all her town markers so I’m townreading her. Will not reconsider until fx

Nutella is playing her town game imo, mac had her town, I *think* LC had her town, just marking her town and not thinking about it until fx

Made, cop claim, obvious is obvious

Michelle is green checked, it’s wildly optimal to accept this as gospel and not reconsider until fx

That’s five out of 12, so need two more

Esooa is one

Idk who the other one is yet, it’s currently between spf and dk I think, maybe jay in a long shot depending on how today and tomorrow play out. Probably need to figure this out a bit more but here we are

All of this is contingent on a rollblock claim obviously, that would help things a bunch

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Alright super cool beans SPF.

I don't really mind the claim; that's your prerogative. In the absence of a counterclaim, SPF is out of my POE.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

i demand a town read for that crosspost nanook

Pocketed, damn

[JaggedJimmyJay]

But who's in her place?

[nutella]

anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

Ah fuck gotta think about this

[Esooa]

tutuu is not obv town

[Esooa]

I actually am surprised you think she's more likely saved tbh

[staypositivefriend]

i am fairly confident that alison/jagged has at least one mafia. i will see if my analysis substantiates this

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Bleh I wish you hadn’t claimed tbh

Ok

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My POE has room for tutuu now, so I will consider it. I've never actually seen her in a mafia role so I dunno.

[Michelle]

I get the process of elimiation y'all executing here, but like this game is an abnormality just generally.

is it really that impossible anyone is playing outside of their scum range???

it's not a very scientific approach, and i typically hate science, but moments like now make it pretty useful.

I don't get the attachment to the EOD d2 state of the game i'm feeling in thread rn

If Alison or SPF is a mafioso, I think they've played a brilliant game. That's why they weren't getting chopped earlier.

But I don't care about what's "possible" really. I care about what seems the most likely to me. Anything is possible. I could consider all of that until my head spins off of my neck. If you're right about someone and I am wrong, then I will need your help to get there. This post I am responding to feels more like paranoia to me than like grounded suspicion. But if you have concrete suspicions of tutuu or nutella or Esooa that don't relate to power role stuff, then please let me have them. I'm all ears.

Saying that Alison and SPF are playing briliant game is always true, just saying this

I have to work, i will be here later

[nutella]

Wait why aren't you considering you rbed tutuu

Like I get having her lock town but if you're for real the poe is really narrowed and you can't actually mech lock her from a jk lol

[Esooa]

yea, it's really really dumb to me that people have been saying tutuu is town when most people here prboably have 0 experience with scum tutuu

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I have experience with scum tutu

[Michelle]

anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

Sorry for the tunnel then, good job in making clear i am wrong

[staypositivefriend]

I actually am surprised you think she's more likely saved tbh

tutuu makes sense to me as a kill target from the mafias POV - she is a towncored player that has faced mild scrutiny (mostly from DK) over the last couple of days, but has largely remained untouched and unpushable. from the mafias position, killing a "towncored" player that they perceive as difficult to get chopped is an intelligent strategic move

so, while it is ~possible~ that i roleblocked tutuu from making a kill, i see no reason to believe that this is the case

[nutella]

I actually am surprised you think she's more likely saved tbh

Yeah

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have experience with scum tutu

what's she like

[Made]

okay, so

ellie/Michelle/made/spf were all town.

@Esooa
that tutuu jump was pretty quick ngl

[Esooa]

anyways now that I'm potentially put in the PoE it's a great time to bring up how a game I was in just ended

it was the game Mac scum read me for this game, cause I power wolfed all game and also somehow managed to nearly get him lynched as obvtown!mac day 4, while I had been hard defending mafia/hard pushing town all game xddd

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mafia might have believed tutuu's first post was real.

[Esooa]

it was fun

[nutella]

Like I can see a maf tutuu here without squinting too hard

May not have said this at certain points, but yeah

[Esooa]

I'm cool not going tutuu today but no way is she cleared town, idc

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I have experience with scum tutu

what's she like

Pretty scary tbh she pantsed all of us

[nutella]

Mafia might have believed tutuu's first post was real.

Also fair

And even without that I can def see her as the nk target last night, just don't think it's enough to lock

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I suppose tutuu and Alison both would fit the "started hot and tailed off" stencil shape for mafia

[staypositivefriend]

i will say that i've put my tutuu read on the backburner for the past couple of days - i haven't re-evaluated my strong feelings from earlier in the game that she was town because nothing specific about her pinged me. so i will acknowledge the possibility that tutuu could be scum, but her being the chop target tonight would make perfect sense to me if we lived in a world where she's town

[Made]

WE ARE IN GAME D AND MAFIA HAS A VIGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

[Esooa]

by the way, if SPF is jailkeeper, this is the setup with a Vig. I see no reason for Vig to not have shot yet. It's easy to see scum!Tutuu carrying the kill and vigging, blocking both of these

[Esooa]

vig in the joat abilities

[nutella]

I have experience with scum tutu

what's she like

I only spectated the game she was mafia, but had her as solid town. Was extremely impressive

[DaughterOfOmega]

this game is so ez, but mafia pushing SPF are sad

[JaggedJimmyJay]

As I consider who to add to my POE in SPF's place, I'm not sure anyone would make sense [in purely mechanical terms] other than tutuu. She could have been saved. She could have been kill-blocked. The existence of the mechanic means she is more implicated than the average player.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Spf I love you but your mech is incorrect

Tutu isn’t mech confirmed

Mafia have two KP one night so we get three actual mech confirms today (you/made/Michelle, assuming no CCs), and one tomorrow

It would’ve been better if you could’ve made it through the day and potentially gotten a save off tonight, giving us an extra day with a confirm


That said, it’s fine