Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[tutuu]

lol

[Made]

if anyone wants to do the expected value on tutuu being mafia go head.
I'm not tho. I refuse. I fucking hate statistics.

[Esooa]

but yeah, most situations where nutella is mafia, tutuu is town I think? this part wasn't very math-y but make sense i think
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine

not really a valid way to look at it. It was a PR hunt kill if they targeted tutuu. Avoiding considering this in "who would mafia kill" is flawed

[DaughterOfOmega]

Alison viewing the thread forever without a post

[Made]

but yeah, most situations where nutella is mafia, tutuu is town I think? this part wasn't very math-y but make sense i think
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine

not really a valid way to look at it. It was a PR hunt kill if they targeted tutuu. Avoiding considering this in "who would mafia kill" is flawed

working on a proof, but in all situations where this was a hunt kill (beside them actually believe her joke post at the beginning of the game, which is RIDDDICUULLAAASSSSS ( @JaggedJimmyJay @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME ) Tutuu is bad.

As of this point, the only person to indicate in thread they believed that I was a PR before I revealed I was one was you and SPF (who is town). This means if Essoa is bad, Tutuu is bad (AKA the Esooa Association)

The Esooa Association states that if you-Esooa- are bad, you were incentivized to kill me last night. Because no kill happened last night players (right now just Esooa) who guess i was yesterday a PR are most likely to be bad, and are almost definitely bad with Tutuu

[Made]

if someone wants to beat me to the proof, the key insight is the implications of the Esooa Association, the Nutella Axiom, and the Tutuu Trolly problem on each other. I just saved a draft. I'll finish it tomorrow during office hours

[Made]

Key takeaway in a sentence:
If mafia had any reason to Power role hunt last night, Tutuu is almost definitely mafia

[DaughterOfOmega]

Key takeaway in a sentence:
If mafia had any reason to Power role hunt last night, Tutuu is almost definitely mafia

I've found that reading into early mafia kills is a crapshoot tbh

[tutuu]

but yeah, most situations where nutella is mafia, tutuu is town I think? this part wasn't very math-y but make sense i think
[VOTE: Tutuu] aubergine

not really a valid way to look at it. It was a PR hunt kill if they targeted tutuu. Avoiding considering this in "who would mafia kill" is flawed

working on a proof, but in all situations where this was a hunt kill (beside them actually believe her joke post at the beginning of the game, which is RIDDDICUULLAAASSSSS ( @JaggedJimmyJay @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME ) Tutuu is bad.

As of this point, the only person to indicate in thread they believed that I was a PR before I revealed I was one was you and SPF (who is town). This means if Essoa is bad, Tutuu is bad (AKA the Esooa Association)

The Esooa Association states that if you-Esooa- are bad, you were incentivized to kill me last night. Because no kill happened last night players (right now just Esooa) who guess i was yesterday a PR are most likely to be bad, and are almost definitely bad with Tutuu

Terrible post. You're tunneling and I'd like to ask you to stop. I could have easily been targeted with a night kill because there were about 5 people who had me as lock town.

[Made]

Key takeaway in a sentence:
If mafia had any reason to Power role hunt last night, Tutuu is almost definitely mafia

I've found that reading into early mafia kills is a crapshoot tbh

the Wolves rolled snake eyes

two situations:
Mafia wanted to kill tutuu 1/12
mafia wanted to kill literally anyone else 11/12

[Made]

Key takeaway in a sentence:
If mafia had any reason to Power role hunt last night, Tutuu is almost definitely mafia

I've found that reading into early mafia kills is a crapshoot tbh

the Wolves rolled snake eyes

two situations:
Mafia wanted to kill tutuu 1/12
mafia wanted to kill literally anyone else 11/12

1/9 but okay

[DaughterOfOmega]

Key takeaway in a sentence:
If mafia had any reason to Power role hunt last night, Tutuu is almost definitely mafia

I've found that reading into early mafia kills is a crapshoot tbh

the Wolves rolled snake eyes

two situations:
Mafia wanted to kill tutuu 1/12
mafia wanted to kill literally anyone else 11/12

1/9 but okay

It's even less than 1/9 if you want to put thought into it though. The mafia are never killing likely bake targets, you/michelle/me/etc.

You can say it's more like 1/4 or 1/5

which isn't unlikely

[tutuu]

I thought that all of these posts about solving my alignment using probabilities and numbers were jokes at first so I went along with it. If these are still jokes, they're getting corny. If these are serious posts, they're getting cringey.

[Made]

Key takeaway in a sentence:
If mafia had any reason to Power role hunt last night, Tutuu is almost definitely mafia

I've found that reading into early mafia kills is a crapshoot tbh

the Wolves rolled snake eyes

two situations:
Mafia wanted to kill tutuu 1/12
mafia wanted to kill literally anyone else 11/12

1/9 but okay

It's even less than 1/9 if you want to put thought into it though. The mafia are never killing likely bake targets, you/michelle/me/etc.

You can say it's more like 1/4 or 1/5

which isn't unlikely

this is where the Essoa association shows up, but let's stick away from theory for now....

let's play russian roulette.
would you rather I hand you a gun with 1/5 or 4/5 (in the sense that we're putting someone out, i'm taking the 1/5)
I'm not saying that it's a done deal, boom gg. But in terms of any sort of analytic approach to this game Tutuu is beyond POE

[Made]

I thought that all of these posts about solving my alignment using probabilities and numbers were jokes at first so I went along with it. If these are still jokes, they're getting corny. If these are serious posts, they're getting cringey.

They are both corny jokes and cringey serious.

Think Dad Jokes

[Michelle]

I thought that all of these posts about solving my alignment using probabilities and numbers were jokes at first so I went along with it. If these are still jokes, they're getting corny. If these are serious posts, they're getting cringey.

Imagine Made after claiming cop spent so much time on that post as a joke.
How can you think like that?

[Michelle]

@staypositivefriend who was your target in the first nights?

[Made]

I thought that all of these posts about solving my alignment using probabilities and numbers were jokes at first so I went along with it. If these are still jokes, they're getting corny. If these are serious posts, they're getting cringey.

Imagine Made after claiming cop spent so much time on that post as a joke.
How can you think like that?

to be fair, that is quite firmly in my scum range. I was lynched d1 for a "Made" pun.

[Made]

@staypositivefriend who was your target in the first nights?

Nutella

but i must sleep

[Michelle]

I will restart to read the game with all clears in mind i think all our answers are hidden itt im days 0 and 1

[Michelle]

@staypositivefriend who was your target in the first nights?

Nutella

but i must sleep

Thanks!
Good night!

[tutuu]

michelle im about to have a workout and hype myself up, when im done lets solve the game together. right here and right now

[Michelle]

in the quotes Jay picked up from Omega there are few that are looking pretty bad from my pov

I spent some time to reread Ellie, and day one is still beyond awful for her.

Then going into this day, I wanted some kind of fire and grand reevaluation after the d1 flip. Instead she came in like a scared wolf, and continued this behavior because she wanted to kiss hands and make friends to try and live. It's a complete tone change from d1 to d2 because she knows she is in a bad spot. I would want a town to push their reads and continue to solve and just say "I was wrong on LC let me rethink" instead of acting like this.

Vote:EllieDelight

From an experienced player this analysis for Elli's play is disappointing. No one expects a player at 3rd game to have relevant posts and stances and painting her as a scared wolf is showing a narrow take. She really has no enough game experience to rethink all the game based on a flip.
I didn't receive from townies posts like these when I was a noob, and I am comparing how townies wanted from me to show I have a train of thoughts even if wrong back then, and painted me as LHF and defended me.

Since people don't seem to want to kill Ellie today, I am moving my vote to Michelle.

Ellie is voting Made, I think Made has more town points than Michelle, and I don't want to be off wagon on days like this

I want to point out that Omega is talking here about the consensus Poed players who are all villagers.

Ellie reminds me of Monstr in a game 5 years ago where he was being voted over someone who he hard pocketed. Monstr was upset that the other person wasn't being killed before him because that other player was being scummy and even defending Monstr.

I think Omega didn't expect from me to know Monstrman so well and she didn't talk about him after I said he is my mentor. Comparing old games who cannot be checked with the current game just to divert attention is a scummy move and I want to see what was the subject when she posted that if Omega flips scum. If she is villager, however, I think this post is totally uninspired.

Who asked me reads?

I am fairly confident that Ellie is mafia.

Made/Michelle less so, but have small things that are scummy.

I think Ellie's partners is more like Nanook+1

Preflip associacions revealing in fact very little of Omega's reads.

I take back my town read I had of Omega who was based on genuine posting style and vibe.

[Michelle]

michelle im about to have a workout and hype myself up, when im done lets solve the game together. right here and right now

I am here, but don't forget you don't need me to scum hunt

I am catching up with today's posts for now

[tutuu]

so hyped that i wanna post while resting between sets

assuming no cc,

spf - jailkeeper. n1 nutella n2 tutuu
made - cop. n1 holster n2 michelle town
michelle - peeked town

tutuu

leaves me with:
alison
doom
koba
esooa
grogu
jjj
nanook

we can make 2 more misyeets, even if mafia vigs someone we don't lose our 2 free attempts. also if spf manages to jailkeep exactly the mafia killer tonight we win a 3rd free misyeet and potentially auto win, gl gl @staypositivefriend

god my abs hurt and i cant breathe

lets go with 2 free misyeets, that pool of 7 i can reduce to 7-2=5, and the 3 mafia are there and i cant make a mistake. therefore i simply need to find 5-3=2 townreads among that list of 7 and i have auto

trustfall:

alison - had some logical inconsistencies that i think arent an attribute of her scum game; had some stern and towny tonal posts of "stop scumreading me ur playing poorly", has been pretty reasonable and has pushed the game forward

doom - didnt appear to be too bothered by people scumreading her, has had some anti-consensus take that she didnt seem uncomfortable asserting, vibe feels pretty chill and relaxed

back to the yoga mat

koba - has had a very erratic and neurotic expression which i attribute to being town, has had a few annoying posts where they feel like they're above questioning, when i feel this kind of annoyance towards another player its generally correct to townread them

esooa - has had a lot of rough conflicts with multiple people which i attribute to being town, i buy her assertiveness and the conviction she has in herself that boils down to "no matter what, im right and ur wrong"

grogu - doesnt seem phased that there are people out there hunting to catch him lying (if he's mafia). is cute and funny

jjj - seems to be pushing the game in a good direction, has had a lot of posts where he allows himself to show some emotion that makes him look more towny and human and less robotic and scummy

nanook - mac said he's town; also seems to be incapable of randing scum just as much as me (so reverse gamblers fallacy); is giving me similar vibes that i see from him town after town after town after town game

----------------

distrustfull:

alison - is capable of being uber towny as scum, is capable of doing pretty much all of her posts she has posted this game as scum, was content with the status quo and poe on day 1 which we now see was completely and entirely wrong

doom - is a veteran player thats probably capable of fooling all of us since nobody knows what to expect, had some weird switches in her reads that go from 0 to 180 to 360

koba - i havent heard of them and i have no idea what to expect of their scum game, appears to have fallen off and could be resting on their laurels

esooa - has a killer scum game that ive apparently underestimated, is probably capable of faking all that frustration if she felt like she was scumread for NAI reasons, is non-stop pushing villagers and villagers only

grogu - hasn't done anything that can't easily be faked by a wolf half-trying, could be using his shtick and the fact that he's unknown as an advantage to stay utr

jjj - has tried to settle fights and calm down the thread (which, yes, i perceive as a scumtell generally, perhaps not for jay since he's an empathic and good guy, but ime its generally scummy to do since its so easy, since town ppl generally get more frustrated and are too busy to calm down other ppl). he's also just sort of out there, i feel like he's struggling to make posts sometimes

nanook - his style is very easily to replicate as wolf, as he himself admits that he doesn't believe in "posting outside one's range", and generally he can be scum pretty much every game he plays. has been hitting his town markers imo but we do have 3 wolves that were probably all deep on day 1, so, we have to start moving around furniture and looking at the corner of the rooms (i just made this phrase up)

i just realized all of this effort is for nothing if someone cc's so lol me, but, wont be the first time i feel embarassed at myself and wont be the last so whatever

1 more set

out of the trustfalls i found it easiest to come up with esooa and weirdly enough grogu. and hardest to come up with jjj and nanook

out of the distrustfalls i found it easiest to come up with alison and doom. hardest to come up with .... jjj and nanook once again. which is bizarre.

[tutuu]

@JaggedJimmyJay would you be interested in redoing your chart thingy from scratch?

[tutuu]

@DkKoba where is your head at? spf says she jailkept nutella n1, does that mean anything for you with regards to your nutella read?

[tutuu]

@Alison we need to rethink the game from scratch. id be sad if you pocketed me. if you're town, please show me

[tutuu]

@Esooa after you wake up please explain to me your scumread on me and i can promise i will put a lot of effort to not fluff post in response, to focus and to reply as best as i can. im town, i have nothing to hide, and id be more comfortable if people didnt scumread me

[tutuu]

@Made if things persist then i will actually dismantle your ridiculous and absurd case on me that's filled with 50 logical fallacies per sentence. until then i want to be a bit greedy/selfish and hope that someone else will point out to you how wrong you are so i can put my effort into something more productive, but if not, then ill do it. you're my teammate and i dont want you to be wrong on me, i need to be more responsible with my communication and less stubborn

[tutuu]

Anyways the town are

Made
Michelle
Spf

Tutu
Esooa
Nutella

Jay goes last in the POE if necessary


Easy game, scum should probably be CCing

so your poe is alison, dkkoba, grogu, doom, jjj

with jjj being the last

could you pls gun to head order the first 4?

[tutuu]

I think the game is like turbo easy

Alison
Koba
Grogu
Jay
nanook

do we have 5 kills? if so gg

could you order these please? gth

[tutuu]

lol im asking other people to order their poes and i forgot to order mine

eso, made - you should be townreading me here for my towny "hypocrisy" or "forgetfulness". i realize that this is wifom but i dont care, its an objectively good read and while i am self-aware of my self-awareness, i am also self-aware of recognizing when i myself townslipped and i can identify that as objective townslip. you can call it ego if you like but you would be wrong, its just understanding yourself well, self-empathy etc etc

anyway, gun to head:

alison -> jay -> doom -> grogu -> nanook -> koba -> nutella

i realize i have to take away 2 names but actually i dont want to do that. i dont get why all of you are doing it. if i take away koba and nutella here im gonna tunnel those townreads and am more likely to forget about them. im putting all 7 names in my poe

[tutuu]

eso, made - you should be townreading me here for my towny "hypocrisy" or "forgetfulness". i realize that this is wifom but i dont care, its an objectively good read and while i am self-aware of my self-awareness, i am also self-aware of recognizing when i myself townslipped and i can identify that as objective townslip. you can call it ego if you like but you would be wrong, its just understanding yourself well, self-empathy etc etc

this is an incredibly towny snippet like holy shit. i impress myself at how towny i can be sometimes

[tutuu]

i still cant get over just how towny ive been in the last 1 hour or so. im skimming over my posts and im smirking at how good i did. if anyone still wants to be a fucking hater after this and scumread me then they can eat my fucking dab. play better

[Michelle]

I read your post Tutuu between few work tasks and I think making trusfalls and distrustfalls is like playing devil's advocate sometimes and is pretty hard. I think I never did this and I will maybe take this as an exercise at one moment if I feel inspired.

I trust the claims because is illogical to claim in a day without having a real danger of being baked from both sides, Made and SPF.
I don't feel the need to tinfoil Jay and Nanook in this moment because Jay trying to calm down the thread like you say made sure a better atmosphere exists itg, and scum would benefit more of chaos, and Nanook pocketed me really well since day 0 .Also both claims are giving a hard time for mafia and I saw both posting without stress.

My Poe now without rereading much is Nutella, Omega, Grogu, Alison, Tutuu, not yet ordered.

I realised few days ago, when Hally came itt and posted a gif, that @Esooa posted in this game very similar with Hally, all over the place and hard emotional sometimes and this is a playstyle who shows a fluid mindset, very hard to make when scum, even if not impossible. I want to point out that this is the main reason for which wolves succeed to ML Hally when she is bleeding towniness because there is one moment in the game when being so volatile in thoughts is making townies unsure about the reason of changing opinions so often.

Dk saved me from self voting like I was a suicidal being almost jumping outside the window. I don't see scum making that move, is illogical.

[Michelle]

i still cant get over just how towny ive been in the last 1 hour or so. im skimming over my posts and im smirking at how good i did. if anyone still wants to be a fucking hater after this and scumread me then they can eat my fucking dab. play better

okay

[Michelle]

Which yeah means we’ll probably lose but we can at least maybe not get swept

Spoiler: show

everyone tag yourselves!!!
I'm the president
ellie and michelle are the snipers
tutuu, esooa, and DK are the robbers
role claim: cop
game setup: A
green check: Michelle
red check: the person roleblocked

oh boy, I remember I said we are partners

way i see it, there's a mafia between tutuu and nutella. gut read is both tbh, but theory based read is tutuu trying to pull a alison "I HAVE A BARGON" from MC then completely fluffing her "meta change" as the game goes on to not be in the style of Bike

is worthy to analize this idea

Spoiler: show

what the a-

obv we can't trust Nutella and Esooa right now

imo Nutella, Tutuu, and Nanook are POE. this is the most active Nanook's been all game.

this is a deep wolf game. Period.

So town rn is

Made/Michelle

Esooa/nutella/DK

Need three more for auto I think

i'm right here bb

Unfortunately for us we’ve spent two days pushing on a likely cop so

No towncore for us until we get a pelt probably

If I’m going deep scum I’m looking at alison before nutella or tutu or even DK

If I’m going deep scum I’m looking at alison before nutella or tutu or even DK

but keep going right?
it's not omega, dk, michelle, me, JJJ. it's probably not esooa, baby yoda is far too cute to scum.

that leaves you (obvs ur not gonna agree there), then Nutella Alison Tutuu SPF

WAIT
OMEGA BEFORE SPF?????

I spoilered all the ideas for further reference

[Grogu]

What are the claims?
Michelle is actually toen after all? I quit this game. This is so hard, how do you find the scum over text? It amazes me.

[tutuu]

Michelle, when townreading Jay for calming down the atmosphere please consider the following points:

-he studies something related to psychology and is aware of how shitty human communication can be, and its something he cares for outside the game aswell

-he is an administrator on the syndicate so naturally he doesnt want people to have fights on his site, thats part of the admin and mod duty

-hes also just generally a good guy who just likes being a mediator

Maybe me scumreading him fot calming down the atmosphere is taking it a bit too far and thats probably silly of me, but i see no world in which jay rolls mafia and doesnt try to calm people down

[Grogu]

@staypositivefriend who was your target in the first nights?

What is their claim?

[tutuu]

What are the claims?
Michelle is actually toen after all? I quit this game. This is so hard, how do you find the scum over text? It amazes me.

Why are u asking what are the claims if you know that we know that Michelle is town?

[tutuu]

@staypositivefriend who was your target in the first nights?

What is their claim?

Shes the jailkeeper, n1 nutella n2 tutuu

[Michelle]

What are the claims?
Michelle is actually toen after all? I quit this game. This is so hard, how do you find the scum over text? It amazes me.

I don't remember if you linked your games or not, if you didn't please do so

don't forget if you are town that we need everyone's presence in the game

[Grogu]

What are the claims?
Michelle is actually toen after all? I quit this game. This is so hard, how do you find the scum over text? It amazes me.

Why are u asking what are the claims if you know that we know that Michelle is town?

I want to have all the info. I am not going to read anything because there are 100s of posts.
I start to feel like jay is a manipulative player. I believe he is probably scum. That or just has psychopath behavior lol

[Grogu]

@staypositivefriend who was your target in the first nights?

What is their claim?

Shes the jailkeeper, n1 nutella n2 tutuu

Whoa so that means Tutuu was kill or killer. What has tutu said?

[Grogu]

What are the claims?
Michelle is actually toen after all? I quit this game. This is so hard, how do you find the scum over text? It amazes me.

I don't remember if you linked your games or not, if you didn't please do so

don't forget if you are town that we need everyone's presence in the game

Sure

[Michelle]

Michelle, when townreading Jay for calming down the atmosphere please consider the following points:

-he studies something related to psychology and is aware of how shitty human communication can be, and its something he cares for outside the game aswell

-he is an administrator on the syndicate so naturally he doesnt want people to have fights on his site, thats part of the admin and mod duty

-hes also just generally a good guy who just likes being a mediator

Maybe me scumreading him fot calming down the atmosphere is taking it a bit too far and thats probably silly of me, but i see no world in which jay rolls mafia and doesnt try to calm people down

you are maybe right, but if I loose to this kind and nice Jay I don't really care.
I just don't find his agenda - even if i don't have psychology studies I am good at spotting manipulation based on life experience and I am using it from time to time in scum hunting. If you can demonstrate he wants to control a narrative, come with quotes, if not just let Jay in town core.

[Michelle]

What are the claims?
Michelle is actually toen after all? I quit this game. This is so hard, how do you find the scum over text? It amazes me.

Why are u asking what are the claims if you know that we know that Michelle is town?

I want to have all the info. I am not going to read anything because there are 100s of posts.
I start to feel like jay is a manipulative player. I believe he is probably scum. That or just has psychopath behavior lol

[tutuu]

Going out to buy groceries, eat, homework etc. Just wanted to drop that i forgot to put esooa. That means my list is now 8 ppl big which confuses me. Earlier i calculated it at 7. Ill figure it out later. Anyway id drop koba off of my top 2 and put eso in their place and nutella still on top