I'm trying my best. If you don't respect it, that's a you thing. But I'm trying my best.DkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:08 pmur just saying words but okJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:
For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.
Bread Mafia [Game Over]
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Spoiler: show
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
can u stop like gaslighting me cuz u have been constatnly calling me maf and yet ur like appealing to me like im town so which is it?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:09 pmI'm trying my best. If you don't respect it, that's a you thing. But I'm trying my best.DkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:08 pmur just saying words but okJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:
For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
It's almost like Jay thinks you are mafia, but isn't sure, so he is still treating you like a regular and trying to be respectable.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Another question has been asked that I will answer publicly.
Any X-shot ability that is in any way blocked or kept from happening is not refunded.
Feel free to ping me if you knead any more answers.
Any X-shot ability that is in any way blocked or kept from happening is not refunded.
Feel free to ping me if you knead any more answers.

Banners and Stuff
Spoiler: show
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
incredibletutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:35 pm click click click
"dammit" - a tiny squeeky voice gasped
click click click
"friiiick!!!" - a teeny weeny baby yoda voice echoed
"i cant log on to marmot's account... i tried everything... wait .... unless...." - a light bulb lit up above grogu's head
m a r m o t h a s t h e b i g p e e p e e - grogu typed. "enter", he pressed.
"Login successful! You are now being redirected" - lit up on his screen, just as grogu's tiny cute eyes lit up to match.
"yesssss, all according to plan, ehehehe >:D" - the tiny mastermind rubbed his tiny paws.
navigating through Marmot's inbox and his 69 scum rand role PMs, grogu finally located the "outbox" folder.
his eyes widened at this discovery. "oooooh... so this is the mafia team for the bread game..."
excited at the prospect of catching them all and showing he's the best town player of all time, grogu's tiny eyes noticed something weird. an irregularity. was it a figment of his tiny cute imagination? a mysterious PM sent by a mysterious person named "juliets"
grogu hovered over the message. a shiver went down his tiny spine and tiny sweat drops started falling down his tiny neck. he could feel like he is doing something wrong. very wrong. if he clicked this, there was no turning back. but.... he couldnt stop here. not after everything that happened. not after what happened with NANOOK.... grogu had to move forward...
he clicked on the message. And in that brief moment, Grogu regret every moment he had lived in his life.
grogu remembered. he remembered everything. he remembered why was he locked in that cell, what happened to humanity, what happened to his friends. grogu knew. grogu knew that he was locked in his room, he remembered the apocalypse and the following purge and extinction. and that he was the last living person left in the universe.Spoiler: show
nobody else was alive. it was just him. grogu
suddenly, grogu heard a knock on his door.
the end
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I'm speaking to everyone as unknown alignments. I am not sure you're mafia. I am not sure anyone is mafia. That's why I am doing all of this work. If you're town then it's critical I communicate with you, and I would prefer it to be amicable.DkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:10 pmcan u stop like gaslighting me cuz u have been constatnly calling me maf and yet ur like appealing to me like im town so which is it?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:09 pmI'm trying my best. If you don't respect it, that's a you thing. But I'm trying my best.DkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:08 pmur just saying words but okJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:
For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.
Spoiler: show
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Koba is just mad at anyone thinking they are mafia, I know that sometimes it can be genuine to get upset at certain reads when they feel unjust toward you, but Koba is just shooting down anything.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
can u link the game u spectated?DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:13 pm Koba is just mad at anyone thinking they are mafia, I know that sometimes it can be genuine to get upset at certain reads when they feel unjust toward you, but Koba is just shooting down anything.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I can not, IP banned.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Analyses will have to continue a bit later. I haven't eaten all day.
Spoiler: show
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
If you remember the name of the game perhaps someone else could grab it.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
what site? what was the game name? when was it? number of players?
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
i already have an idea of what it is -> but it'll be easier for me if you admit it so i can link it.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
that's not gaslighting, it's a reasonable way to approach someone in the poe. you are fairly likely to be mafia but it's still worthwhile to address you assuming you are town hoping to work together to solveDkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:10 pmcan u stop like gaslighting me cuz u have been constatnly calling me maf and yet ur like appealing to me like im town so which is it?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:09 pmI'm trying my best. If you don't respect it, that's a you thing. But I'm trying my best.DkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:08 pmur just saying words but okJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:
For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.
if you're town in the poe your perspective is valuable
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
It was Guillos Tactics
I grabbed a friend to tell me
I grabbed a friend to tell me
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
hm my second choice. but im pretty sure im still right on the other game im thinking of.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
No one claimed yesterday? I remember essoa fake claiming stuff. That making him more scum by the minuteDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:09 pmI've been in mafia teams that have had this D matrix setup before. Not exactly the same but similar.
We saved the mafia vig for the claimed PR always




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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
ironic u said this thoughDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:54 pm This is the point I hate about mafia, having to fight people lying about your game, it's kind of annoying because you spend more time on yourself than solving.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
herGrogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:23 pmNo one claimed yesterday? I remember essoa fake claiming stuff. That making him more scum by the minuteDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:09 pmI've been in mafia teams that have had this D matrix setup before. Not exactly the same but similar.
We saved the mafia vig for the claimed PR always
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Yes her. I believe they are so scum right now after remembering her claims yesterday




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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
yes i think u bypassed on MS recently lol but i dont have to get into thatDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:24 pmWait you think you are right, even though I told you the answer
what
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
anyways meta is trash i can link u 3 town games that are different than that game just as easily.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
doom is permabanend on both mafiascum and mafiauniverse - to bypass means to avoid your ban and create an account to play on the site
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.
A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.
Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.
You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.
There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.
So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.
A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.
Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.
You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.
There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.
So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
im just curious how the memory is so distinct that they think that this is a valid comparison and part of their main argument.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
lol townAlison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:33 pm So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.
A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.
Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.
You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.
There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.
So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
i literaly dont care what u think that kind of post is always town
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I could see you as town Alison and may even lean that way. I only see one team for you in my POE and I don’t know yet if that even works.
The chop is not decided. We have all day. Let’s try to avoid confirmation bias.
The chop is not decided. We have all day. Let’s try to avoid confirmation bias.
Spoiler: show
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
yeah I am an honest person, I have not been on that site since 2018/9? but lol def wasnt meDkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:27 pmyes i think u bypassed on MS recently lol but i dont have to get into thatDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:24 pmWait you think you are right, even though I told you the answer
what
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
this is fairly convincing but i still dont know what the solve is that you want us to sheepAlison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:33 pm So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.
A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.
Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.
You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.
There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.
So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
also Jay coming to limited solves with scum Alison is something
so I can move my vote but I'd like to know what Alison's solve actually is lol
so I can move my vote but I'd like to know what Alison's solve actually is lol
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I think it will be necessary to check interactions for my unconfirmed town reads (tutuu, Nanook, nutella). There’s no way I will have time to do full reviews for every two-way combination.
I would appreciate some help though. I don’t ask that anyone write up huge posts like mine, but just a glance and posting your feelings would be very helpful to me. Primarily I’d like to know if/how those three fit alongside the POE 5 (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa).
I would appreciate some help though. I don’t ask that anyone write up huge posts like mine, but just a glance and posting your feelings would be very helpful to me. Primarily I’d like to know if/how those three fit alongside the POE 5 (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa).
Spoiler: show
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I'm writing it up now. You're also probably not going to like it.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
@DkKoba the reason I responded to that is because I don't like rumors about me going aroundDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:38 pmyeah I am an honest person, I have not been on that site since 2018/9? but lol def wasnt meDkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:27 pmyes i think u bypassed on MS recently lol but i dont have to get into thatDaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:24 pmWait you think you are right, even though I told you the answer
what

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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
well if it has me in it I can't exactly sheep it bc I'd know it's wrong
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
but I may be able to compromise on one of the suspects
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Being in the POE means I have a unique perspective on the game. Let us say, for example's sake, that everyone else is working with a 5 person POE. I have an advantage, because I know my own alignment, which means my POE is 4 instead of 5, which means my reads are going to be on average better because I don't wrongly scumread myself. It also means that I'm in the best position to analyze the pushes on me and see which ones seem sincere and which ones come from an inauthentic place. I'm telling you this to convince you that if I do end up being exed my reads are probably better than anyone else's in the game, because I don't want you to ignore them like you do with every legacy read and post.
There is scum in [nutella, Esooa, tutuu, Dkkoba]. There might be more than one; I don't know, but there is almost guaranteed at least one. I don't believe that all four of these are town and made everyone go for a completely garbage POE while a scum team like [Grogu, nanook, JJJ] or whatever just sat on their hands and watched them burn. Whoever is wolf in that category is the most elusive, but they're also the ones who're most vulnerable right now because they just went from being in complete control over the game and pushing town towards consecutive bad exes in a row to getting a wet slap in the face.
Whoever is the deepwolf in there has to put their hand back on the rudder and exert control over the game again. Town is now firmly at an advantage with three clears, 2 free misexes, and a pretty solid grouping of players, associative and scumminess wise. They cannot just sit back and blow smoke - they have to expose themselves a bit, openwolf and try to push a scum agenda.
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.
Dkkoba is a candidate for deepwolf, but they're acting in complete self pres and don't seem to care about killing anyone except nutella. I don't think it makes sense for the deepwolf candidate to focus solely on self pres here because they can't win if they just focus on surviving and let their team rot. I also don't think it makes sense for a deepwolf candidate to attack someone else in the towncore because it basically outs them if they succeed and then the scum team has no win condition.
That leaves nutella and tutuu. Between the two, I suspect nutella more. Both players are very strongly in their respective town metas, so if my analysis is right, someone is playing a pretty magnificent scum game. Before this game, I'd expect tutuu to do that more easily than nutella (see: Overtime Mafia), but I actually trend towards suspecting nutella here because whichever one of them is a wolf is relying strongly on meta to shield them, and that fits more with nutella's behavior here. She was out of her scum range D1/D2, yes, but she also had a pretty comfortable time those days so if anything is an ideal environment to help you expand your scum range, it's that.
nutella has strongly pushed on: LC, Ellie, Made, Michelle, nook, SPF, myself. All of these individuals have at some point or another been consensus scumreads, so I'd expect the average player to have pushed fiercely on quite a few of the people in this list, but nutella hits all of them. The wide variety of people she's pushed on (all with equal conviction) suggests that she might just not care who dies as long as it's town.
tutuu has strongly pushed on: LC, Ellie, DOOM, myself. That's 3/6, and DOOM's status is still unverified (could still be scum, which would look good for tutuu because I don't think she's scum partners with her after their spat).
Broadly, if nutella is the deepwolf, she's powerwolfing, and if tutuu is the deepwolf, she's really focusing on going deep. Given the events of D1/D2 and what a circus it was, I'd expect to see more powerwolfing, which makes me lean towards nutella. My analysis clears Dkkoba, and Dkkoba strongly scumreads nutella, which is a point against her as well. I'm around 60% nutella is the deepwolf, 35% tutuu is the deepwolf, and 5% something weird happened (like Esooa/Dk being the wolf, the towncore being clean, etc.)
nutella can't be scum partners with Esooa because they had a fight that was way too toxic and personal. I have never played with scum Esooa, but I think it's out of nutella's range, not even as a member of the mafia, but as a member of the Syndicate. Call it angleshooting but I don't think nutella as a Syndicate admin would fake an interaction that heated and personal just to get an edge in a scum game that both of them were trusted in anyway.
nutella prooobably isn't scum partners with nook becuase she bussed him really hard in a situation where she didn't have to bus him at all.
nutella probably isn't scum partners with Dkkoba for the same reason she isn't scum partners with nook - she had no reason to attack Dk like that here if they were scum together.
tutuu isn't scum partners with DOOM unless both of them are capable of doing some real kabuki theatre shit. Re-evaluate this one at FX or whatever, but the spat between them (particularly DOOM telling people not to ping her or mention her or speak her name because she got so tilted by tutuu) just seemed far too intense to be fake.
tutuu isn't scum partners with Esooa either because Esooa has constantly suspected her, even when everyone else was certain tutuu was town. There is no reason to continuously argue against your scum buddy at that point, you just relax and accept that they're going to be consensus town.
Could tutuu and nutella be wolves together? Maybe - they haven't really attacked each other much. Both of them have claimed to have re-evalled all their reads, but not really changed their read on each other. Meh.
So Esooa is double cleared by not being partners with either deepwolf. Dk is possible, but evidence points away from them and they only fit on one team.
That means the possible worlds are:
nutella solo deepwolf - nutella + 2 in [JJJ/Grogu/DOOM]
tutuu solo deepwolf - tutuu + 2 in [JJJ/Grogu/nanook]
nutella/tutuu wolves - nutella + tutuu + [JJJ/Grogu]
That means JJJ/Grogu are probably always in the POE from associative analysis, DOOM/nanook can be scum if the deepwolf fits with them, and there's a pretty high chance of there being 1 in [nutella/tutuu]. Optimal use of the exe is to clear worlds, which means I would prefer to exe either nutella or tutuu first (leaning towards nutella because she fits the deepwolf archetype better) to resolve DOOM/nanook, and then just brute force through [uncleared between DOOM/nanook, JJJ, Grogu] to end the game.
There is scum in [nutella, Esooa, tutuu, Dkkoba]. There might be more than one; I don't know, but there is almost guaranteed at least one. I don't believe that all four of these are town and made everyone go for a completely garbage POE while a scum team like [Grogu, nanook, JJJ] or whatever just sat on their hands and watched them burn. Whoever is wolf in that category is the most elusive, but they're also the ones who're most vulnerable right now because they just went from being in complete control over the game and pushing town towards consecutive bad exes in a row to getting a wet slap in the face.
Whoever is the deepwolf in there has to put their hand back on the rudder and exert control over the game again. Town is now firmly at an advantage with three clears, 2 free misexes, and a pretty solid grouping of players, associative and scumminess wise. They cannot just sit back and blow smoke - they have to expose themselves a bit, openwolf and try to push a scum agenda.
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.
Dkkoba is a candidate for deepwolf, but they're acting in complete self pres and don't seem to care about killing anyone except nutella. I don't think it makes sense for the deepwolf candidate to focus solely on self pres here because they can't win if they just focus on surviving and let their team rot. I also don't think it makes sense for a deepwolf candidate to attack someone else in the towncore because it basically outs them if they succeed and then the scum team has no win condition.
That leaves nutella and tutuu. Between the two, I suspect nutella more. Both players are very strongly in their respective town metas, so if my analysis is right, someone is playing a pretty magnificent scum game. Before this game, I'd expect tutuu to do that more easily than nutella (see: Overtime Mafia), but I actually trend towards suspecting nutella here because whichever one of them is a wolf is relying strongly on meta to shield them, and that fits more with nutella's behavior here. She was out of her scum range D1/D2, yes, but she also had a pretty comfortable time those days so if anything is an ideal environment to help you expand your scum range, it's that.
nutella has strongly pushed on: LC, Ellie, Made, Michelle, nook, SPF, myself. All of these individuals have at some point or another been consensus scumreads, so I'd expect the average player to have pushed fiercely on quite a few of the people in this list, but nutella hits all of them. The wide variety of people she's pushed on (all with equal conviction) suggests that she might just not care who dies as long as it's town.
tutuu has strongly pushed on: LC, Ellie, DOOM, myself. That's 3/6, and DOOM's status is still unverified (could still be scum, which would look good for tutuu because I don't think she's scum partners with her after their spat).
Broadly, if nutella is the deepwolf, she's powerwolfing, and if tutuu is the deepwolf, she's really focusing on going deep. Given the events of D1/D2 and what a circus it was, I'd expect to see more powerwolfing, which makes me lean towards nutella. My analysis clears Dkkoba, and Dkkoba strongly scumreads nutella, which is a point against her as well. I'm around 60% nutella is the deepwolf, 35% tutuu is the deepwolf, and 5% something weird happened (like Esooa/Dk being the wolf, the towncore being clean, etc.)
nutella can't be scum partners with Esooa because they had a fight that was way too toxic and personal. I have never played with scum Esooa, but I think it's out of nutella's range, not even as a member of the mafia, but as a member of the Syndicate. Call it angleshooting but I don't think nutella as a Syndicate admin would fake an interaction that heated and personal just to get an edge in a scum game that both of them were trusted in anyway.
nutella prooobably isn't scum partners with nook becuase she bussed him really hard in a situation where she didn't have to bus him at all.
nutella probably isn't scum partners with Dkkoba for the same reason she isn't scum partners with nook - she had no reason to attack Dk like that here if they were scum together.
tutuu isn't scum partners with DOOM unless both of them are capable of doing some real kabuki theatre shit. Re-evaluate this one at FX or whatever, but the spat between them (particularly DOOM telling people not to ping her or mention her or speak her name because she got so tilted by tutuu) just seemed far too intense to be fake.
tutuu isn't scum partners with Esooa either because Esooa has constantly suspected her, even when everyone else was certain tutuu was town. There is no reason to continuously argue against your scum buddy at that point, you just relax and accept that they're going to be consensus town.
Could tutuu and nutella be wolves together? Maybe - they haven't really attacked each other much. Both of them have claimed to have re-evalled all their reads, but not really changed their read on each other. Meh.
So Esooa is double cleared by not being partners with either deepwolf. Dk is possible, but evidence points away from them and they only fit on one team.
That means the possible worlds are:
nutella solo deepwolf - nutella + 2 in [JJJ/Grogu/DOOM]
tutuu solo deepwolf - tutuu + 2 in [JJJ/Grogu/nanook]
nutella/tutuu wolves - nutella + tutuu + [JJJ/Grogu]
That means JJJ/Grogu are probably always in the POE from associative analysis, DOOM/nanook can be scum if the deepwolf fits with them, and there's a pretty high chance of there being 1 in [nutella/tutuu]. Optimal use of the exe is to clear worlds, which means I would prefer to exe either nutella or tutuu first (leaning towards nutella because she fits the deepwolf archetype better) to resolve DOOM/nanook, and then just brute force through [uncleared between DOOM/nanook, JJJ, Grogu] to end the game.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]


Banners and Stuff
Spoiler: show
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
If anyone finds a problem with my logic let me know. I'll be voting nutella until further notice, but will settle for JJJ/Grogu exe if people are unconvinced, since they have to be cleared before endgame. If you want to flip me to prove that my solve is in good faith, I can't stop you and I'm not going to vote myself, but have the respect of coming back here after my flip and following this line.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
[VOTE: nutella] aubergineAlison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:10 pm If anyone finds a problem with my logic let me know. I'll be voting nutella until further notice, but will settle for JJJ/Grogu exe if people are unconvinced, since they have to be cleared before endgame. If you want to flip me to prove that my solve is in good faith, I can't stop you and I'm not going to vote myself, but have the respect of coming back here after my flip and following this line.
Oh, right, and you should probably consider the possibility of Esooa/Dk as a wolf at FX. Before then, I'm confident enough they're town that you should leave them alone.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Well this should not be brought up here. You are making deflamatory statements that shouldn’t be brought up. What were you trying to accomplish with this?




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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
- Alison
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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...




Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I think you are town. If I have to vote you to save myself I will. Therefore you are going to Jill yourself or kill me and that’s going to result in town flip. Do you but I guarantee you die before me FYI




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Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
By the way I thought about including a section where I analyze whether or not outsiders (Dkkoba, Grogu, DOOM) or Syndicate regulars (nutella, nanook, tutuu) are more likely to try to get me murdered as scum and the argument for outsiders was that they wouldn't know how difficult I am to get exed and the argument for regulars was that they wanted bragging rights for misexing me D3 but I scrapped the whole thing because I felt it was too subjective and slightly masturbatory anyway since I don't think I can objectively evaluate this kind of thing.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
Re: Bread Mafia [Day 3]
I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes



