Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’ll have something to say when I finish my big honkin sammich with two big honkin breads

Spoiler: show

[Grogu]

By the way I thought about including a section where I analyze whether or not outsiders (Dkkoba, Grogu, DOOM) or Syndicate regulars (nutella, nanook, tutuu) are more likely to try to get me murdered as scum and the argument for outsiders was that they wouldn't know how difficult I am to get exed and the argument for regulars was that they wanted bragging rights for misexing me D3 but I scrapped the whole thing because I felt it was too subjective and slightly masturbatory anyway since I don't think I can objectively evaluate this kind of thing.

You can’t do that because no one is trying to do that... I been trying to save you. Wow

[Alison]

Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...

1) Esooa is a she. You've been informed of this already. Please try to respect people's pronouns; it's really important to them.

2) I don't have Esooa as a wolf. Please read my post for a full explanation of my logic.

3) I don't like that you're trying to frame the exe as either being me, or you, or Esooa, and that my sole vote controls the outcome of the day.

What's your take on nutella and tutuu? Are they scum? Do you have plans to vote them?

[Alison]

I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

[DkKoba]

why is it that someone finally comes around on nutella as soon as i decided to shelve that read for the day.

[DkKoba]

i hate this game

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

[staypositivefriend]

thanks for the POE alison - i'm giving it a look and taking it into consideration. i'm roughly at the place where i feel that both DK and esooa have more town equity than not, so if you ~are~ town, it's reassuring to me that our heads are in a relatively similar place

to be honest, i'm facing major information overload syndrome in this game. i don't think i've ever felt so aimless in a mafia game before - this is usually the type of situation i thrive in, but i've felt pretty unable to really "kick it into gear" and help create the conditions for a victory

although DOOM could still potentially be scum, the fact that she was part of the "consensus POE" of universally scumread players throughout the entire game is a small point in favor of her being town - nobody has really shielded her (to my memory), and she's always been in the outskirts of the POE as a plausible chop option. her frustration with being FOS'd today felt very authentic, and i like that it felt as though she was going to enter "anti-spew" mode, but then made a point of still outing insightful analysis/reads. i also thought that her concerns about me felt towny, solely in the sense that they dont make much sense for DOOM to post if she was playing from a mafia mindset. i won't die on the hill of this read being accurate, but i am townleaning DOOM and i am presently not interested in voting for her

koba fits the archetype of "scum" in the sense that they have faced a high level of protection from early on, and my tinfoil read on them was shot down pretty heavily. their push on DOOM also concerns me. that said, their approach does not necessarily ping me today - i feel that their frustration over not being listened to is something that could easily come from a koba!town mindset. i just want to see koba flesh out their reads more, honestly. as things stand, i probably will not end up with a vote on them today

i feel the same about esooa - i still maintain that she had some very strong towntells (on d2 in particular) and that she maintained a consistently strong gamesolve-y tone throughout yesterday. i feel that her presence today has been deflated a bit (perhaps i just havent read her posts closely enough), but i would not characterize esooa as someone that i am actively worried about - she has deepwolf potential, but much like koba, it doesn't seem like a good fit

grogu is an interesting case - he fits pretty well in the scum archetype because he has faced an absurd amount of protection from being pushed on or FOS'd in this game - i can't think of a single time a grogu!scum world consensus actually gained momentum. that said, some of his posts do feel a bit "tonally" towny to me - but we're at the stage of the game where i do not feel that i can reasonably remove someone from my POE for "tone". his passionate defense of alison does also not feel entirely substantiated by his logic. i would not characterize grogu as my number one scumread, but i would characterize him as someone that i'm concerned about

i will continue this later

[JaggedJimmyJay]

There's also a lot of general perspective disconnect generally happening in here. Some people are calling DK a deepwolf candidate and some are calling them POE lol

I'm not sure there is a "consensus POE" in this game anymore.

[Alison]

@Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

Mostly because nanook's associatives are wack. Like he mostly has associatives with Ellie, Made, Michelle etc. that we already know the alignments of. He has one associative with nutella, but nutella has associatives with more people. So to me it makes sense to start from nutella/tutuu and see what worlds those slots block out, and try to fill in the remaining pieces of the puzzle by seeing who fits with the deepwolf, who they were trying to shield or let skate by, etc.

That said, I wouldn't say I trust nanook fully. I've honestly liked his day talk today, I think he's been very chill and unconcerned with shoving the gamestate around, which means if he's mafia he's fairly confident that the gamestate will resolve in his favor today (which doesn't seem likely since we just got a bunch of clears and a lot of good town solving is happening). He's possibly mafia in the worlds that tutuu is the deepwolf, since he's defended her. I'm not clearing him by any means.

[Grogu]

Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

[Alison]

Actually, quick question for Grogu. @Grogu Sorry if you've explained this before, but who do you think is scum with Esooa in your solve?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think my view of Esooa right now is somewhat analogous to those who suspect nutella instead. Esooa is the consensus game-long town read that I struggle to trust right now.

I haven't dug deep into various team possibilities for her yet though.

[Grogu]

I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

[staypositivefriend]

i think made is the most probable hit with the info we have

this is one of the few posts from nutella that outright pinged me - because it felt like nutella's mindset was disconnected from the rest of the game. when i saw ellie flip town, my first instinct was not: "well, i guess it's made now!". my instinct was: "we need to re-evaluate everything".

so for nutella to enter the game after the ellie flip with a hardpush on made "based on the info we have" does not strike me as a particularly well substantiated or organic vote

[Alison]

Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

It's a relative comparison. The consensus POE in this game has been pretty rotten; everyone's pushed town. You've pushed Michelle yourself. The point is not to say "oh, so and so has scumread a townie, so they must be scum" - the point is to look at the quantity of bad scumreads, weigh whether or not those scumreads were there by accident or bad reads or something more, and see how hard the scumreads were pushed. I don't know you're town for sure, so in my mind Esooa has pushed one unresolved slot and one town slot moderately hard. That is probably on par for the rest of the game, so she doesn't stand out as being suspicious from that context alone. I go into more detail why nutella's pushes stand out to me - it's because of the sheer quantity and variety of them.

[nutella]

posts are long and i'm making dinner but the idea i'm "powerwolfing" is a funny one

[nutella]

i think made is the most probable hit with the info we have

this is one of the few posts from nutella that outright pinged me - because it felt like nutella's mindset was disconnected from the rest of the game. when i saw ellie flip town, my first instinct was not: "well, i guess it's made now!". my instinct was: "we need to re-evaluate everything".

so for nutella to enter the game after the ellie flip with a hardpush on made "based on the info we have" does not strike me as a particularly well substantiated or organic vote

i had the latter thought, and then the first

i was blindsided by the ellie flip but after thinking concluded made was a logical answer

[Alison]

I think my view of Esooa right now is somewhat analogous to those who suspect nutella instead. Esooa is the consensus game-long town read that I struggle to trust right now.

I haven't dug deep into various team possibilities for her yet though.

I asked Grogu the question about Esooa's teammates precisely because one of the things I found when doing associatives was that Esooa doesn't fit with many teams, and most of the teams she fits in involve you lol. (And Grogu, which is why the question is fairly important for them to answer.)

[nutella]

remember i had been townreading made, so that was a reevaluation

[nutella]

anyway will read stuff more in depth later. i do think if alison is actually town the tutuu solve is a likely one.

[Alison]

I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

I believe nutella/tutuu contains one or more wolves. I am trying to convince people that nutella/tutuu contains one or more wolves. To do that, I must first convince them that a deepwolf exist. Then, I must convince them why nutella/tutuu are the most likely deepwolves out of the possible deepwolves. To do that I have to examine the likelihood of the other deepwolves being true, including Esooa.

[staypositivefriend]

remember i had been townreading made, so that was a reevaluation

if that's the case, i'd be curious what "info" you felt pointed to a made!scum world even after you had re-evaluated

[staypositivefriend]

@jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?

[Grogu]

Positive my friend,
Who has been protecting me? Couldn’t it be that I have been town this whole time?
You seem to fail math. There are exactly 3 scum, if I was one I would have 2 partners defending me???

Explain how 2 people can control all the votes? This doesn’t make any sense. I’m new at mafia but math I learned before elementary school. Do the math again and rethink that paragraph please. Maybe you just forgot the amount of scum in this game or your point was that all 3 scum are protecting town grogu?
Then tell us by name who are those scum protecting me. Thanks positive friend

[Alison]

posts are long and i'm making dinner but the idea i'm "powerwolfing" is a funny one

You've made confident pushes on: Michelle, LC, Made, SPF, Ellie, me. I know for a fact all six of these players are town. Either you're power wolfing and just going on a killing spree amongst townspeople, or your accuracy rating is wayyyy off compared to your usual town meta. Either way, it makes sense to me to investigate.

[Grogu]

Actually, quick question for Grogu. @Grogu Sorry if you've explained this before, but who do you think is scum with Esooa in your solve?

No idea who is scum with her. I have my scum reads:
Essoa, jagged**, koba, tutuu.
But who knows

[nutella]

remember i had been townreading made, so that was a reevaluation

if that's the case, i'd be curious what "info" you felt pointed to a made!scum world even after you had re-evaluated

the wagon history, p sure i talked about this already

[staypositivefriend]

mmm i'm arriving at a nanook town world upon giving his ISO a look. i would probably not re-evaluate that slot until LYLO

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?

It was my analyses of her interactions within my POE. I began assessing with this POE: [Alison, Omega, Grogu, DK, Esooa] and found that Alison is a poor fit with both Omega and Esooa. So for her to be mafia, if my assessments are accurate, she would have to be teamed with exactly Grogu and DK. That is on its own power unlikely, and if not then that means 1) she's town, 2) my analyses of Omega/Esooa were flawed, or 3) she would fit better with someone outside my POE instead.

I haven't looked into #3 yet. But then she popped in with her legacy and I think it looks pretty authentic. So my current feeling is that #1 is the answer.

[Alison]

Hm, to be fair I have seen nutella legitimately go on a killing spree amongst townspeople as town before, in Space Invaders. That game was a particularly weird dynamic though, so not sure how much it maps over. But it does prove that nutella can sometimes be wildly inaccurate as town, even though her reads are normally decent.

[nutella]

posts are long and i'm making dinner but the idea i'm "powerwolfing" is a funny one

You've made confident pushes on: Michelle, LC, Made, SPF, Ellie, me. I know for a fact all six of these players are town. Either you're power wolfing and just going on a killing spree amongst townspeople, or your accuracy rating is wayyyy off compared to your usual town meta. Either way, it makes sense to me to investigate.

sometimes my accuracy isn't amazing, this isn't a new thing

holding me to a standard of having perfect reads is unfair. i have been wrong before and i can be wrong again

[Alison]

Actually, quick question for Grogu. @Grogu Sorry if you've explained this before, but who do you think is scum with Esooa in your solve?

No idea who is scum with her. I have my scum reads:
Essoa, jagged**, koba, tutuu.
But who knows

Esooa has been constantly suspecting Koba and tutuu all game, even when all three of them were comfortable townreads. Why would she do that to a scumbuddy?

[nutella]

especially in a game like this where consensus poe slots have flipped town and we're arriving at a place where there must be a deepwolf. of course i've had some wrong reads then, everyone has


yes i went very hard against lc and extremely hard against michelle

yes i'm disappointed


that's not how i would play it as a wolf tho

[Grogu]

Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

It's a relative comparison. The consensus POE in this game has been pretty rotten; everyone's pushed town. You've pushed Michelle yourself. The point is not to say "oh, so and so has scumread a townie, so they must be scum" - the point is to look at the quantity of bad scumreads, weigh whether or not those scumreads were there by accident or bad reads or something more, and see how hard the scumreads were pushed. I don't know you're town for sure, so in my mind Esooa has pushed one unresolved slot and one town slot moderately hard. That is probably on par for the rest of the game, so she doesn't stand out as being suspicious from that context alone. I go into more detail why nutella's pushes stand out to me - it's because of the sheer quantity and variety of them.

I’m sure essoa has pushed more than us two. I can’t remember who she pushed since I thought she was pretty towny early on. My mind has changed a lot, yours should to.

[nutella]

genuinely don't think i've ever "powerwolfed" in my life

i would absolutely have bussed by now

[Alison]

posts are long and i'm making dinner but the idea i'm "powerwolfing" is a funny one

You've made confident pushes on: Michelle, LC, Made, SPF, Ellie, me. I know for a fact all six of these players are town. Either you're power wolfing and just going on a killing spree amongst townspeople, or your accuracy rating is wayyyy off compared to your usual town meta. Either way, it makes sense to me to investigate.

sometimes my accuracy isn't amazing, this isn't a new thing

holding me to a standard of having perfect reads is unfair. i have been wrong before and i can be wrong again

I've been wrong before too, I don't intend to hold you to that standard. Most people this game have had bad reads in one way or another. I'm just remarking that a string of 6 bad exes is out of character for you and provides more evidence to think you're mafia. Space Invaders provides a counterexample, but in a different dynamic (you were more likely to get hard pocketed in SI because the whole mafia team was trying to pocket you due to the unique setup). I'm not trying to find a standard to hold you to, just trying to establish how far or not far off the baseline your play has been this game.

[Alison]

I’m sure essoa has pushed more than us two. I can’t remember who she pushed since I thought she was pretty towny early on. My mind has changed a lot, yours should to.

I'm on nutella/tutuu has at least one mafia if not to so yeah I'd say my mind has changed a lot lol

[Grogu]

I think my view of Esooa right now is somewhat analogous to those who suspect nutella instead. Esooa is the consensus game-long town read that I struggle to trust right now.

I haven't dug deep into various team possibilities for her yet though.

I asked Grogu the question about Esooa's teammates precisely because one of the things I found when doing associatives was that Esooa doesn't fit with many teams, and most of the teams she fits in involve you lol. (And Grogu, which is why the question is fairly important for them to answer.)

I never have understood how to look for teams. I call out things that don’t feel right. I’m not good enough to do associate reads.
I don’t trust them

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Something I am considering about nutella: her pushes have largely been bad, that is irrefutable. The same can be said for me, so it's hard for me to take that to the bank. She shares another similarity with me though that I think should be taken into consideration. She hasn't just "made bad pushes" -- she has been topsy turvy in her preferences among those bad pushes. If nutella was genuinely invested in deciding whether we should chop Long Con or Ellie, and then invested in whether we should chop Michelle or Made or Ellie -- that would suggest her views were most likely genuine. I have a feeling a mafia nutella would have been a bit more laissez-faire in that scenario since all of them were town anyway -- she couldn't lose.

[Alison]

genuinely don't think i've ever "powerwolfed" in my life

i would absolutely have bussed by now

I don't remember you bussing in Radiohead or Making Friends. Like the circumstances are different but clearly bussing isn't the first thing you jump to when the going gets rough, and clearly you're fine just hanging along killing townies for a bit. What about this game indicates that you would definitely have bussed as scum?

[staypositivefriend]

alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool

[Alison]

alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool

Remind me again why you're clearing DOOM?

[Grogu]

I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

I believe nutella/tutuu contains one or more wolves. I am trying to convince people that nutella/tutuu contains one or more wolves. To do that, I must first convince them that a deepwolf exist. Then, I must convince them why nutella/tutuu are the most likely deepwolves out of the possible deepwolves. To do that I have to examine the likelihood of the other deepwolves being true, including Esooa.

There is way more than one deep wolf. There’s at least 2 and Nutella isn’t one of them. You do understand that if all the consensus are wrong then all the wolves are deep yes?
I am town.
You are town?
I think omega she’s town too.

So talk to me... if you are town and me and omega also town how many deep wolves there are???
Answer is between +2 and 3.
Which is more than 1. So kindly add wolf essoa to your list. You are welcomed

[nutella]

genuinely don't think i've ever "powerwolfed" in my life

i would absolutely have bussed by now

I don't remember you bussing in Radiohead or Making Friends. Like the circumstances are different but clearly bussing isn't the first thing you jump to when the going gets rough, and clearly you're fine just hanging along killing townies for a bit. What about this game indicates that you would definitely have bussed as scum?

can't bus if i'm caught first lol

but when i'm wolf in a decent position i absolutely bus, and most people who could be mafia here have been more poe'd than me so yeah

[nutella]

walk me through why you passed by koba and jay so easily and jumped to there has to be one in me/tutuu?

[nutella]

i guess that's explained in your long post nvm i should just reread

[staypositivefriend]

alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool

Remind me again why you're clearing DOOM?

i expanded on that a bit in this post: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 20#p710120

doom has just consistently outed posts that feel diametrically opposed to someone coming from a mafia perspective today - i think that she could be scum if the game goes to a LYLO situation, but nothing inspires me to consider her a realistic part of the POE right now

[Grogu]

Actually, quick question for Grogu. @Grogu Sorry if you've explained this before, but who do you think is scum with Esooa in your solve?

No idea who is scum with her. I have my scum reads:
Essoa, jagged**, koba, tutuu.
But who knows

Esooa has been constantly suspecting Koba and tutuu all game, even when all three of them were comfortable townreads. Why would she do that to a scumbuddy?

Why not? You just said they were town read. What would be the danger???

[DaughterOfOmega]

I mean if Ali is town, I very much understand the nutella mafia world

But it's based on ifs