Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[Esooa]

gamers I have

white wine,
scotch,
grapefruit/rose vodka,
honeydew sake

what should I drink

@DkKoba

[DaughterOfOmega]

I am ready to nail Alison to the wall, and it's weird now that people are so sketched from voting

[nutella]

If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

i am starting to think some of your conclusions are wrong


the dk/grogu one you admitted was weak anyway

[nutella]

gamers I have

white wine,
scotch,
grapefruit/rose vodka,
honeydew sake

what should I drink

@DkKoba

honeydew sake sounds delightful

[Made]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Put a vote down please. I really really don’t like that he hasn’t voted yet

[staypositivefriend]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

[Grogu]

Alright @Grogu, duly noted. Would you say that your read on Omega has been mostly town all game or no?

Yes it has. I have been upset at her for keeping me in the POE all game and I have pushed her for this. But my push is a push for her to clear me which is different.

[Esooa]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

what do you think of the "I'm town" arguments Alison gave?

[Esooa]

@staypositivefriend what do you tihnk of the way Grogu is treating Alison

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Put a vote down please. I really really don’t like that he hasn’t voted yet

I don't care about this. I am working out the entire game and feel no need to vote before I am set in my solve.

[Made]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

Super behind, but the way I keep things simple with Tutuu WiFom it boils down to one question: was Tutuu targeted? If she was then she’s town. If she wasn’t she is mafia.

Is this help for in any way or kinda beside the point?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If Alison is mafia, please tell me who her teammates are -- for anyone in the Alison wagon.

[Made]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Put a vote down please. I really really don’t like that he hasn’t voted yet

I don't care about this. I am working out the entire game and feel no need to vote before I am set in my solve.

It would help me solve the game to have your vote down even while you’re thinking so your progression thought can be followed in multiple ways. This is also true if you are town.

[Esooa]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

Super behind, but the way I keep things simple with Tutuu WiFom it boils down to one question: was Tutuu targeted? If she was then she’s town. If she wasn’t she is mafia.

Is this help for in any way or kinda beside the point?

I opened the day very much tin-foiling Tutuu and I think your analysis of the likelyhood she was targeted to be "Not It" fwiw

[DaughterOfOmega]

I mean fmpov all town are voting Alison, so...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

i am starting to think some of your conclusions are wrong


the dk/grogu one you admitted was weak anyway

It's "weak" in that there's so little to talk about, but it was a review that still moved me. Do you figure mafia Grogu/DK ignored one another 100% through all of Day 0 and Day 1?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

What is up party people

[nutella]

I'm kinda scum reading the nature of Nutellas response here. I don't like how she believes Alison to currently be scum, but is trying to discredit her world view on the basis of itself. I'd find that if someone is scum, the world view naturally has a scum agenda, and if you wish to prove Alison is scum, you angle not to discredit her world view but first saying why she is scum; why her reasons for saying she is town are invalid. I think Nutella going to why Alisons world view is incorrect is necessary for Nutella to do, in a world Nutella is scum. @staypositivefriend does this make sense?

because i still think it's possible alison flips town and if she does i don't want people to blindly chop me next because that would bring the game to lylo


i think alison is still the best chop here, but i want to make sure her solve is scrutinized just in case


sure this would be important to do if i was scum too, but since i don't know for sure what she's going to flip (and given the current record of flips i've been confident on going in lol) i don't want it to be a cut and dry thunderdome. in the case she's town i want to reason with her and show others why she's wrong, in the case she's scum i want to....show others why she's wrong and why her case on me is likely fabricated

yeah while i type this the more i think she's unlikely to just be this wrong about me as town and is just scum

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Put a vote down please. I really really don’t like that he hasn’t voted yet

I don't care about this. I am working out the entire game and feel no need to vote before I am set in my solve.

It would help me solve the game to have your vote down even while you’re thinking so your progression thought can be followed in multiple ways. This is also true if you are town.

I mean I seriously have no idea who I want to vote for yet. I am not close to finished, and I am not operating on prior assumptions.

If you want a gun-to-head vote, right now I probably put it on tutuu.

I haven't assessed tutuu yet, so

[Esooa]

gamers I have

white wine,
scotch,
grapefruit/rose vodka,
honeydew sake

what should I drink

@DkKoba

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME help me out uwu

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

gamers I have

white wine,
scotch,
grapefruit/rose vodka,
honeydew sake

what should I drink

@DkKoba

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME help me out uwu

I’m not much of a drinker tbh but honeydew sake sounds intriguing

[staypositivefriend]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

what do you think of the "I'm town" arguments Alison gave?

her argument about not killing tutuu/not letting tutuu carry the kill is fine - good, even, but it comes bundled with a variety of assumptions that we can not deductively know (ie: what if tutuu carried the vig kill and alison carried the maf kil? (ok not likely tbh) what if tutuu's role made it mechanically optimal for her to carry the kill?) it ultimately boils down to wifom, even if the wifom is convincing, and that's why i'm reluctant to put much stock into it

her argument about her never allowing herself to be bussed this early as scum is fine too, but again, it's the type of argument that doesn't connect with me because it assumes definitive statements about the organization & the mechanics of the scumteam that are impossible for us to deductively know - and as such, arguments made on that basis aren't as impactful as they should be

anyway i think the reasoning is fine, but it doesn't particularly make me want to townclear alison. i don't view the arguments in that way

[staypositivefriend]

@staypositivefriend what do you tihnk of the way Grogu is treating Alison

it's sketchy, but also weirdly passionate

[staypositivefriend]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

Super behind, but the way I keep things simple with Tutuu WiFom it boils down to one question: was Tutuu targeted? If she was then she’s town. If she wasn’t she is mafia.

Is this help for in any way or kinda beside the point?

that's a very good question worth pursuing, but it isn't the type of question that i feel i can put much weight into, because i personally am not a big fan of nightkill analysis/theorizing about who would or wouldn't kill tutuu. it becomes so WIFOM-y to me that i don't particularly like it

[nutella]

If Alison is mafia, please tell me who her teammates are -- for anyone in the Alison wagon.

some combination within grogu/esooa/dk/you

[nutella]

also you didn't answer me about esooa

how strong was that dissociative

[nutella]

jay can you link me the alison esooa analysis? bc right now it feels to me like they're preserving each other pretty hard

@JaggedJimmyJay
my post got paged off rip

[nutella]

If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

i am starting to think some of your conclusions are wrong


the dk/grogu one you admitted was weak anyway

It's "weak" in that there's so little to talk about, but it was a review that still moved me. Do you figure mafia Grogu/DK ignored one another 100% through all of Day 0 and Day 1?

i think that's entirely possible yes, mafia teammates ignore each other all the time especially lowposting ones

[Made]

@JaggedJimmyJay

Put a vote down please. I really really don’t like that he hasn’t voted yet

I don't care about this. I am working out the entire game and feel no need to vote before I am set in my solve.

It would help me solve the game to have your vote down even while you’re thinking so your progression thought can be followed in multiple ways. This is also true if you are town.

I mean I seriously have no idea who I want to vote for yet. I am not close to finished, and I am not operating on prior assumptions.

If you want a gun-to-head vote, right now I probably put it on tutuu.

I haven't assessed tutuu yet, so

I can work with that. Thank you

[Esooa]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

what do you think of the "I'm town" arguments Alison gave?

her argument about not killing tutuu/not letting tutuu carry the kill is fine - good, even, but it comes bundled with a variety of assumptions that we can not deductively know (ie: what if tutuu carried the vig kill and alison carried the maf kil? (ok not likely tbh) what if tutuu's role made it mechanically optimal for her to carry the kill?) it ultimately boils down to wifom, even if the wifom is convincing, and that's why i'm reluctant to put much stock into it

her argument about her never allowing herself to be bussed this early as scum is fine too, but again, it's the type of argument that doesn't connect with me because it assumes definitive statements about the organization & the mechanics of the scumteam that are impossible for us to deductively know - and as such, arguments made on that basis aren't as impactful as they should be

anyway i think the reasoning is fine, but it doesn't particularly make me want to townclear alison. i don't view the arguments in that way

it's not possible that scum used both KP last night unless Tutuu used both

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do DaughterOfOmega and DkKoba fit together as mafia teammates?

From Omega about DK

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Koba are you the person I talked to on discord before christmas?

Not sure if the same person

Spoiler: show

I find that my reads are so contrarian that posting them would just get me scum read, but I don't play mafia like a scared person.

SPF
Alison
Koba
Esooa
Michelle
tutuu
Nanook
Grogu
Jay
Made
Nutella
Ellie

Looks like the first DK read comes on Day 2, so that kind of recalls the DK/Grogu interaction.

Spoiler: show

its ordered bc esooa loves me the most

I love you both more

get rekt

Good vibes. Doesn't mean much in this review, but good vibes.

Spoiler: show

I think the game is like turbo easy

Alison
Koba
Grogu
Jay
nanook

do we have 5 kills? if so gg

Next mention comes on Day 3, so again it's a very sparse interaction from Omega's side.

Spoiler: show

The first dive is going to be on Koba. As I do this Koba currently has 328 posts. This will be important because during my dives I like to include a breakdown of numbers.

First I will layout the posts by day that Koba has had so far. Day 0 (65) Day 1 (74) Day 2 (162) Day 3 (current day) Koba has shown a consistent uptick in posts as more information has entered the game, and is currently posting during Day 3 as well.
Now I will go through every town/mafia read that Koba has had at points in this game.

Starting with town reads Koba has posted Day 0 (None Posted).

Koba’s Day 0 Votes/Mafia Reads (Esooa, Long Con, *Alison, Made, Nutella* {probably a joke post for the last three didn’t need to include})

Day 1 Town reads (None posted, hinted at SPF town)
Day 1 Votes/Mafia reads (Michelle, Esooa, Long Con, Tutuu)

Day 2 Town reads (Esooa)
Day 2 Mafia reads (Nutella, Tutuu, Made, Ellie, Nanook)

Okay I have some personal comments I want to make after reading the ISO.
First I want to breakdown their reads based on the current evaluation I have in this game. I have Nutella/Tutuu/Esooa/Made/Michelle as town. Ellie and Long Con are flipped town. Koba has either voted or spent time trying to talk about why these people should be baked. In my eyes Koba has made seven pushes, and all on towns using my reads.
Another big red flag for me is the fact that Koba has not spent any time finding town this game and has only given a single semi town read on SPF. This doesn’t seem to be the way I have seen them play town, which was once.
The last point I want to talk about is the fact that Koba often asked people to post a reads list, and was getting annoyed at several players not giving their reads clearly. Though Koba did not post a single reads list the entire game, and I had to read things slowly to get their reads.

Personal conclusion is likely mafia.

That changes into Day 3, when the number of "koba" mentions in Omega's ISO explodes. Today Omega has made DK a top target, including this full review of their posts. I'm not sure the move here is to spam hate mail at your teammate? It could be argued as a necessity given the POE dynamic so I'm not sure.

Spoiler: show

Sorry it's supposed to be Alison/Koba/Esooa

but IG nanook is somewhat possible in that team

I mean listen, claims are claims. I won't be killing SPF now, and here's the thing, nobody really knows what alignment SPF is outside of them and any mafia.

Koba locking SPF in and not even reading the posts from SPF is actually damning for them because it shows a bias toward believing the claim.

Koba is saying that I'm planning and setting up this massive CC that would be a shock to this game, but stopped because they pointed it out right before I did it.

I like the fantasy world

Koba is saying that I'm planning and setting up this massive CC that would be a shock to this game, but stopped because they pointed it out right before I did it.

I like the fantasy world

hardclaim ur role

Mafia vig

The animosity continues with this recent bizarre "counterclaim" conversation. I will limit the separation credit I give as this is a period where wifom may reign, but it's not standard teammate stuff.

From DK about Omega

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Why tho

I still kinda think they’re both town!

Relevant to you for Ellie at least, she’s very likely not teamed with Michelle who is in your POE afaik, i don’t think LC is very partnery with her, so that should be enough to buy her a day I’d say

I don’t really have a great argument for doom beyond that it feels like she has strong martin vibes where people often want to SR them when they’re being serious cause they can come across as a bit stilted to those of us more used to the casual syndicate conversational style posting.

can u reword this and explain like im 5?

Ellie has lower likelihood of being partnered with other people in Mac’s poe, so she has lower likelihood of being mafia in general from his POV.

Doom reminds me of another player that gets scumread wrongly for similar stuff.

ok well this seems extremely vague and noncommittal

how strong is this read to you?

You seem vague and noncommittal

Strong enough I don’t want them to die D1

I'm not but ok. What's ur PoE rn?

DK makes no direct mention of Omega until Day 3. This was a close substitute from Day 1. DK asked Nanook to expand on two of his town reads (Ellie and Omega) and pressed the issue a bit without specifying Omega or Ellie as a particular source of interest. I'm not sure most mafia discuss their teammates this way? They probably use their name or something. I dunno.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: doom] aubergine

nutella/Omega/tutuu/nanook/JJJ
figure it out
in that order

im not gonna hold ur hands anymore

The first dive is going to be on Koba. As I do this Koba currently has 328 posts. This will be important because during my dives I like to include a breakdown of numbers.

First I will layout the posts by day that Koba has had so far. Day 0 (65) Day 1 (74) Day 2 (162) Day 3 (current day) Koba has shown a consistent uptick in posts as more information has entered the game, and is currently posting during Day 3 as well.
Now I will go through every town/mafia read that Koba has had at points in this game.

Starting with town reads Koba has posted Day 0 (None Posted).

Koba’s Day 0 Votes/Mafia Reads (Esooa, Long Con, *Alison, Made, Nutella* {probably a joke post for the last three didn’t need to include})

Day 1 Town reads (None posted, hinted at SPF town)
Day 1 Votes/Mafia reads (Michelle, Esooa, Long Con, Tutuu)

Day 2 Town reads (Esooa)
Day 2 Mafia reads (Nutella, Tutuu, Made, Ellie, Nanook)

Okay I have some personal comments I want to make after reading the ISO.
First I want to breakdown their reads based on the current evaluation I have in this game. I have Nutella/Tutuu/Esooa/Made/Michelle as town. Ellie and Long Con are flipped town. Koba has either voted or spent time trying to talk about why these people should be baked. In my eyes Koba has made seven pushes, and all on towns using my reads.
Another big red flag for me is the fact that Koba has not spent any time finding town this game and has only given a single semi town read on SPF. This doesn’t seem to be the way I have seen them play town, which was once.
The last point I want to talk about is the fact that Koba often asked people to post a reads list, and was getting annoyed at several players not giving their reads clearly. Though Koba did not post a single reads list the entire game, and I had to read things slowly to get their reads.

Personal conclusion is likely mafia.

i voted both made and ellie for pressure and to see their reaction to my vote.

but sure, assume that im scumreading everyone im voting lmfao

im tired of this game anyways going through 2 dumb town wagons into people reevalling only to put inactive slots into POE feels like the lazy type of shit ive seen in town losses ive moderated.

we should have been reevaling after the first town flip but no everyone wanted their 1 singular wagon.


do yall really think theres literally 0 resistance on wagons on d1 / d2 and im wrong about scum on them?

350 posts, inactive

choose one

6000 posts in thread.

The interaction works the same way in both directions -- neither player has anything to say about the other until Day 3 when they explode into a state of mutual animosity. It's not impossible this is deliberate distancing, because the game state demands that. From DK's side, all of it started after Made and SPF claimed.

I just went back and checked and the same applies from Omega's side. Her case against DK was 45 minutes after DK voted for her.

So it's something that must be considered.

Conclusion

The interaction is a tale of two (+) days. Before Day 3 they didn't say anything meaningful about one another, and in that way it looks like the Grogu/DK interaction. But the dynamic shifts severely on Day 3, and I think it's at least plausible that there is deliberate distancing happening.

I don't know, and I would greatly appreciate other perspectives.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If DK/Omega works, then DK/Grogu can work too. It's a less severe version of the same phenomenon.

[Made]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

Super behind, but the way I keep things simple with Tutuu WiFom it boils down to one question: was Tutuu targeted? If she was then she’s town. If she wasn’t she is mafia.

Is this help for in any way or kinda beside the point?

that's a very good question worth pursuing, but it isn't the type of question that i feel i can put much weight into, because i personally am not a big fan of nightkill analysis/theorizing about who would or wouldn't kill tutuu. it becomes so WIFOM-y to me that i don't particularly like it

word, then I'mma drop it for now

[JaggedJimmyJay]

jay can you link me the alison esooa analysis? bc right now it feels to me like they're preserving each other pretty hard

@JaggedJimmyJay
my post got paged off rip

Link to the second of two posts

Follow the link in that one to the first post. It's huge

[Made]

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

Super behind, but the way I keep things simple with Tutuu WiFom it boils down to one question: was Tutuu targeted? If she was then she’s town. If she wasn’t she is mafia.

Is this help for in any way or kinda beside the point?

that's a very good question worth pursuing, but it isn't the type of question that i feel i can put much weight into, because i personally am not a big fan of nightkill analysis/theorizing about who would or wouldn't kill tutuu. it becomes so WIFOM-y to me that i don't particularly like it

word, then I'mma drop it for now

one thing to add to it tho if anyone (or myself) comes back to this point: Mafia would not know their kill wouldn't go through. So one less layer of Wifom than "normal"

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If DK/Omega works, then DK/Grogu can work too. It's a less severe version of the same phenomenon.

If so, [Omega, Grogu, DK] is a functional team. It's just one so I'm not throwing a party, but it's one.

[nutella]

If DK/Omega works, then DK/Grogu can work too. It's a less severe version of the same phenomenon.

If so, [Omega, Grogu, DK] is a functional team. It's just one so I'm not throwing a party, but it's one.

p much zero chance that's the team imo lol

[nutella]

i dont have the attention span for this alison/esooa analysis but i'll try to skim it

[DaughterOfOmega]

LMAO Jay is trolling with these low quality "reads" he is actively working on

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If DK/Omega works, then DK/Grogu can work too. It's a less severe version of the same phenomenon.

If so, [Omega, Grogu, DK] is a functional team. It's just one so I'm not throwing a party, but it's one.

p much zero chance that's the team imo lol

[Grogu]

If DK/Omega works, then DK/Grogu can work too. It's a less severe version of the same phenomenon.

If so, [Omega, Grogu, DK] is a functional team. It's just one so I'm not throwing a party, but it's one.

You are kidding right?

[nutella]

Alison was willing to step back from her town confidence about Ellie by way of Esooa's testimony. That might be a decent look for dissociation in that a mafia Alison would be ascribing some portion of the responsibility for her take to Esooa.

don't think this is worth much but i see where you're coming from on it

[DaughterOfOmega]

Yes, no mafia have died and they are close to winning, but I decided on d3 that I will bus my partner that was not in trouble of dying instead of pushing Alice more.

Seems like a fun perspective from Jay, the conclusions he comes to are just good for mafia lmao

[nutella]

LMAO Jay is trolling with these low quality "reads" he is actively working on

i'm getting more worried about him tbh

[Grogu]

It was funny to read

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Extremely frustrating to work so hard only to be ridiculed for it.

Ain't nobody here done a thing to win this game anymore than I have, so kiss my butt. Maybe my reads are bad. I don't know. But all I can do is try.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Actually nah, I have other work I should be doing. Solve without me for a while.

[nutella]

There's a lot of wifom embedded in Alison's comments -- that if she and Esooa were both mafia (and with LC), that they'd have both bussed him to high hell and gone deep for it. That may or may not be true, but it loses its relevance with LC's town flip. Perhaps there was some hope then that LC's town flip would then dismantle Mac's team theory -- including just the Alison/Esooa pairing. That might be a stretch.

reading the exchange quoted for this point, i don't think it's a stretch at all. alison's discredits only fit for mac's team theory as a whole and thus fall apart when lc flips town -- there's nothing here that necessitates she's not scum with esooa without lc

[nutella]

Here's a whole pile of loosely related Day 2 stuff. Much of it is direct dialogue between the two which I think is a bit more easily interpreted. Comments:

- I get a vibe here that Alison is explaining her mindset to someone that doesn't already know it, which would be a good thing for dissociation.

- On the other hand, Esooa's tone is rather docile in a way that I'm not sure reflects her typical exchanges with others (see orange highlight). It's not all like that, so I won't make a big stink -- but I noticed a bit of it.

- I like Alison trying to calm the combat between nutella and Esooa at least a little. I probably let my teammate get into that fight and ruin the thread.

next set of points i think are weak

the last one is just, no, do not give her credit for that

i don't think any of this esooa/alison interaction is outside the realm of how i would expect them to interact as teammates

[DaughterOfOmega]

Extremely frustrating to work so hard only to be ridiculed for it.

Ain't nobody here done a thing to win this game anymore than I have, so kiss my butt. Maybe my reads are bad. I don't know. But all I can do is try.

I am sorry, I should have worded it how I meant it.

"I don't agree with that conclusion, but actively solving I really do like"

@JaggedJimmyJay