Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[Made]

So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

This is a very good idea. If everyone can put everything they think is their most important points in one place, It would make it easier for town to follow it.
I'm working on something rn but it does follow.

We're talking passed each other. It's important to take a timeout in talking and trying top figure out what everyone has said

[nutella]

This is pretty loaded question in response to nutella sticking her in a team with Alison.

yep

[nutella]

This is perhaps a convoluted or "overexplained" response to Mac about Alison given that it doesn't clarify a stance and still relates the dialogue to the surety of "scum!Ellie". Not my favorite moment here.

yep

[nutella]

Willing to entertain Alison as mafia if Michelle is town. Okay

this is one of the better points

and some of the pre-ellie-flip stuff

i can see most of this either way

[nutella]

ok @JaggedJimmyJay there's plenty of stuff in there that could go either way

your analysis ends at a point earlier today when esooa was still anti-alison but as soon as alison came in with her big defense+push esooa moved to her corner and has been firmly in it ever since, how do you feel about that shift?

[Made]

Best evidence I’m not mafia with Alison is that I am still a living, cogent being. I can only imagine a game this active and being in a mafia chat with Alison. Our combined obsessive strategizing would preclude me from sleeping or eating.

Nobody cares about this comment, but I wanted to say it anyway.

reading, and this post is kinda weird considered what Alison said in her mega post about Grogu.
Passing thought. I'm not aware of what Alison is like in mafia chat. Have JJJ and Alison been mafia together or does Alison just have clout like that?

[nutella]

another passing thought: one of alison's defense points was that she would never be the first mafia member to go/get bussed. but does that hold up if she's not actually the deepest wolf, ie in a world where her teammates are, say, esooa and jay?

[nutella]

Best evidence I’m not mafia with Alison is that I am still a living, cogent being. I can only imagine a game this active and being in a mafia chat with Alison. Our combined obsessive strategizing would preclude me from sleeping or eating.

Nobody cares about this comment, but I wanted to say it anyway.

reading, and this post is kinda weird considered what Alison said in her mega post about Grogu.
Passing thought. I'm not aware of what Alison is like in mafia chat. Have JJJ and Alison been mafia together or does Alison just have clout like that?

i don't think they've been mafia together but jay has certainly seen alison's scum chat activity when they were released postgame, and in general she has quite the reputation for being an extremely formidable force behind the scenes

and yes this post is weird.

[Michelle]

Morning

why are there like 700 more posts yall make this shit hard to read

11 pages to read, i will try to catch up but first answer if i have pings

[Made]

is there a way to visually edit bbcode? I'm dying y'all

[Made]

also this game is ridiculous.
Folk enter thread like "hey y'all, i'll catch up, but first let me check my mailbox"

[Made]

Gonna do this bit by bit cuz otherwise i'll never post it....
this is starting from maybe an hour from time of post to when SPF claimed JK. If you have something to add to this lmk. If you have something you want to change about what you've said or correct your self or whatever, also say.
I avoided "alison is bad because she's teammates with X" (sorry J) or post like " Alison, ur so baddd omgggg"

Tutuu Re:Alison
Tutuu

Spoiler: show

doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before

I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

i find grogu and doom's behaviors weird, alison and dkkoba have had no reactions

so hyped that i wanna post while resting between sets

assuming no cc,

spf - jailkeeper. n1 nutella n2 tutuu
made - cop. n1 holster n2 michelle town
michelle - peeked town

tutuu

leaves me with:
alison
doom
koba
esooa
grogu
jjj
nanook

we can make 2 more misyeets, even if mafia vigs someone we don't lose our 2 free attempts. also if spf manages to jailkeep exactly the mafia killer tonight we win a 3rd free misyeet and potentially auto win, gl gl @staypositivefriend

god my abs hurt and i cant breathe

lets go with 2 free misyeets, that pool of 7 i can reduce to 7-2=5, and the 3 mafia are there and i cant make a mistake. therefore i simply need to find 5-3=2 townreads among that list of 7 and i have auto

trustfall:

alison - had some logical inconsistencies that i think arent an attribute of her scum game; had some stern and towny tonal posts of "stop scumreading me ur playing poorly", has been pretty reasonable and has pushed the game forward
*snip*

----------------

distrustfull:

alison - is capable of being uber towny as scum, is capable of doing pretty much all of her posts she has posted this game as scum, was content with the status quo and poe on day 1 which we now see was completely and entirely wrong
*snip*

i just realized all of this effort is for nothing if someone cc's so lol me, but, wont be the first time i feel embarassed at myself and wont be the last so whatever

1 more set

out of the trustfalls i found it easiest to come up with esooa and weirdly enough grogu. and hardest to come up with jjj and nanook

out of the distrustfalls i found it easiest to come up with alison and doom. hardest to come up with .... jjj and nanook once again. which is bizarre.

doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

[Made]

JaggedJimmyJay RE: Alison

Spoiler: show

If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

@jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?

It was my analyses of her interactions within my POE. I began assessing with this POE: [Alison, Omega, Grogu, DK, Esooa] and found that Alison is a poor fit with both Omega and Esooa. So for her to be mafia, if my assessments are accurate, she would have to be teamed with exactly Grogu and DK. That is on its own power unlikely, and if not then that means 1) she's town, 2) my analyses of Omega/Esooa were flawed, or 3) she would fit better with someone outside my POE instead.

I haven't looked into #3 yet. But then she popped in with her legacy and I think it looks pretty authentic. So my current feeling is that #1 is the answer.

@Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:

For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

I agree with nutella in that, at least right this moment, I struggle to conceptualize the game without Alison being mafia. She serves as a ringleader of sorts and allows town to cannibalize, all while ushering the bad consensus onward from a place of relative detachment. She could be carrying lower-volume players or teamed with a goat, but I really doubt the team is something like [Grogu, Omega, DK] or something similarly easy-world.

Doesn't mean she's evil and I'll always keep listening blah blah, but that's where I'm at.

I suppose tutuu and Alison both would fit the "started hot and tailed off" stencil shape for mafia

[Made]

nutella Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

wait but that logic implies she's with alison

and i dont really think that


so no i'm not sure what's wrong with that take

i think i agreed with her that it looked bad for grogu

Koba flipping out at jay, and their general vibe coming into this gamestate, is super likely scum imo. I'm still going for Alison first but I think they fit together (and Alison's reaction to the Jay/Koba interaction was so opposite from mine so...yeah)

I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

If I am scum what advantage does this give me over just laying down some generic cheap townread on nook and either killing him at night if I genuinely believe he's a PR or just going about my business if I don't

Just because I can come and argue that I would have killed nook if I was scum?

Yes

I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

like i know that sounds confbiasy but my impression is it's legitimately a strategy scum alison would consciously use

i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

this wasn't enough for alison to dismiss looking at a deepwolf esooa world

what "brute force" do i have compared to esooa? i was pretty forceful about michelle early d2 and backed off of even that, otherwise been pretty chill

idgi

in order to not be too hypocritical (hi papa sloon) i prob should consider esooa more (and this is another one idk why alison isn't) bc she fits the same ""archetype"" of having pushed tons of townies

and mac warned us about her scumrange

my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol

This is very bad post. Not only is clear I am town, but Alison is clearly town also. This is concerning post, didn’t you post you used to be a monster at this game? You are as clueless as I am.
Monster inc. type of monster you are

[DaughterOfOmega]

I think I am still on the Alison/Koba/Jimmy/Grogu/Nanook

Like it's an orderd 5 that imo ends in a town win always

[Esooa]

another passing thought: one of alison's defense points was that she would never be the first mafia member to go/get bussed. but does that hold up if she's not actually the deepest wolf, ie in a world where her teammates are, say, esooa and jay?

if only these points were worthwhile. They're not, because I'm town.

[Made]

SPF Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

@Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

^^two posts from alison from yesterday that pinged me at the time, and ping me slightly more now. they are focused on asserting the incorrect consensus POE while downplaying the possibility of tinfoils in the "middle" slots.

in fairness to alison, she started entertaining "tinfoil" shortly after making this post, but i want to present these for posterity's sake

hello, i'm at work and don't have a ton of time to dedicate to my solving right now, but i'm staying caught up with the thread and i will drop my two cents when i have the ability

i would like to chime in and say that i am personally not interested in a DOOM chop today. i feel that her posts in the last hour or so have a respectable amount of town equity, and even if i'm wrong about that fact, there is zero world where DOOM!scum survives until the endgame. if she is scum, then her lynch is somewhat of an inevitability. in that regard, i would like to go for a deeper scum today. my gut and my brain are currently pointing me to alison, but i'm not married to that stance just yet. however, i do not personally feel that alison has towntold yet today.

i do feel that nanook and tutuu have, though

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

i'm confused about the claim that alison is "frozen" when she hasn't posted. if she hasn't posted isn't it possible that's asleep, or distracted, or etc?

i'm far from opposed to considering an alison scum!world, but that seems like a leap

hi Doom, ur next!

[Michelle]

Do Alison and DkKoba fit together as mafia teammates?

From Alison about DK

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

This game started right as I finished my trip to Toronto, nice.

JJJ is town for not caring about influencing nook/DK/SPF/nutella interactions. DK is town because they're tonally very pure and the way they got locked town by SPF/nook/nutella instantly is basically a thread clear.

I'm probably sleeping soon but this is where I'm at atm.

spf can u explain why ur vibing with me?

you are extremely at ease in a way that i suspect you wouldnt be if you got a mafia role PM on a site that youre not familiar with

that's good enough for me to vibe w/you for now

You've played with Dk before right? How good a scum player are they?

is anyone opposed to a JaggedJimmyJay, Esooa, nutella, tutuu PoE on D1?

yes

tutuu
DkKoba
Esooa

I would like reasons

ordered

Bombs
DkKoba
JJJ

Removal
Esooa
nanook

Evasion
nutella
lurkers/one-posters
tutuu

Aggro
SPF

Duds
LC

i play mtg and i have never heard these terms outside of removal or aggro

found the constructed player

Dk is inno child by the way. Threadspewed/TMI'd out the ass and has not trended down in terms of tone after being townread by half the game.

I had posted basically nothing and the posts weren't very good at the time tutuu town read me and she town read me over other more towny players so if her read wasn't a pocket then yeah idk what to say

im sure tuutuu was totally going to you over stronger town players for a pocket as scum :3

what does this mean

I cram all this together as the DK mentions in the first page of Alison's ISO. The immediate theme is evident from the first post: DK is a town read, and perhaps even a town clear by way of thread climate. This would be brazen teammate behavior albeit not really outside the realm of what I'd imagine Alison might do. I'll wait until I see this time period from DK's perspective to come to a final interpretation.

Spoiler: show

alison what made u go from scumleaning me to townreading me? the progression was pretty swift

I'm sorta null on you atm. My reason for scumreading you was that you seemed a little too quick to townread Dk even though you repped seeing them as a really scary scum player who you'd be paranoid to townread too easily. You had an okay response that shows you've put some thought into how scum!Dk would act here, which is congruent with seeing them as a strong scum player. So that soothes most of my concerns with your townread on Dk.

You haven't really stood out as town the way I know you can, but the biggest actual concern I had with you was satisfied, so I'm just nullish on you right now.

This might say more about Alison in isolation than about the interaction, but this reply to SPF about her DK read feels a bit cooked. You seemed too quick to read my thread-cleared-town-read as town because you think they're scary, but nevermind your response is okay I forgive you goodbye

Spoiler: show

I think my towncore is Dk, Esooa, JJJ, nutella, tutuu, maybe nook. Unless I am being completely outplayed this should be close enough to the truth (if not just the straight truth) to roll over the game given the players involved.

Only mention of DK on page 2 of Alison's posts, still Day 0. Its adds nothing new for me.

Spoiler: show

DkKoba is just town because of threadspew and tone, and has been confrontational/contrarian enough despite their comfortable position that I don't see them as either a power wolf or a deep wolf.

Day 1 reads list, coming on page 4 -- so there was a considerable gap in DK mentions. It may parallel DK's absence from the game. The read mirrors previous Alison takes.

Spoiler: show

nutella and tutuu can both be members of my towncore today. and esooa will probably get to that point if ellie flips scum

all other players are shut out from my towncore until further notice

This solve + Dkkoba is where I'm at in terms of towncore.

nook and JJJ knocking on the door, but not quite in yet.

Everyone else is in the POE.

Day 2 now, still town core. I've agreed with Alison's read much of the game and don't fault her for this perspective. It's not incompatible though.

Spoiler: show

ok before i continue reading: does anyone here like actually townread nutella

I do.

This has been bothering the back of my mind for a bit so I'm going to note it down here: a lot of people have come forward and said something like "actually why are we townclearing nutella" or "actually maybe nutella is scum". This doesn't make sense to me because nutella is in the exact same obvious town position as she tends to be most of the time when she's town. I've played quite a few games with her in that position, as both alignments, and most of the time it's just accepted that she's town and people don't question it or tinfoil her.

From memory, the people who've tried to poke at nutella's position are DK, DOOM, Michelle, Made and LC. LC is flipped town, so not a concern - DK and DOOM are new to the site, which could potentially explain their behavior. That the two names left on the list are Michelle and Made (my top two suspects) makes me think that the shade against nutella comes from a wolfy place, possibly piggybacking off genuine new-to-the-site suspicion from DK and DOOM. This suggests that the towncore is mostly watertight, and that mafia are trying their best to crack it, and it doubly clears nutella if so.

"LC is flipped town"

idk abt u but i trust the viewpoint of a flipped town than an unclear slot but hey thats just me alison.

The other flipped town has nutella as lock town so if we're playing it this way it's a wash.

Why is nutella scum?

Alison talked with and about DK regarding their nutella read. Being inquisitive about their tunnel means little to me. The larger post exonerates DK of some manner of suspicion for nutella tunneling because they don't know her, alongside Omega. So those things are compatible even if not indicative of something or particularly interesting.

Spoiler: show

New theory: Dkkoba is 1337 in Doppelgangsters. Probably only those in that game will understand this but I think the comparison is apt lol.

alison

ive been thinking about this for hte past few days

but did u have an MS accoutn cuz ur avi looks SUPER familiar to me

Not with this avi, so you don't know me from there, I think.

just a general reminder that michelle is at e-1

E-2, no?

A few bantery or nothing posts that exist, so okay.

Spoiler: show

what makes u think michelle is mafia

In summary, my issues with her are:

1) The rigidity of her scumreads are not in line with how town Michelle plays, and seems forced in order to get town points for having offbeat reads.

2) There are inconsistencies with her story - eg. trying to hammer herself at more than 24 hours to the end of the day, after vocally complaining about LC hammering himself with 3 hours left, and claiming that the explanation for this is too emotional for her to share despite having AtE'd for half the game.

3) Her reads don't add up - I'm not convinced by the points she's making, and while I can see little glimpses of "eh, maybe that makes sense" here and there, it's vastly overshadowed by the general "this makes no sense" vibe.

4) She's engaged in behavior that is charitably described as anti-spew, and quite frankly is just openly claiming wolf. For instance, literally claiming wolf. Or openly claiming that she's pocketed nanook. I have not seen town Michelle do something like this ever.

5) All my strongest townreads are good players and they're all super convinced she's scum too, which reinforces my confidence in her being scum.

why does not making sense = mafia

Town Michelle makes sense. It may not be 100% linear robot logic, but there's a coherence to her posts that I'm not seeing here. Town Michelle is easy to find as town.

Townies make more sense than mafia because they're not making shit up. They have less inconsistencies in their story, and their viewpoints are more coherent and believable, because their stories and viewpoints are real and natural. It doesn't mean that someone is automatically town just because they don't make sense, but if someone consistently doesn't make sense for too long in a row with no attempt to course correct, that's a scumtell.

Alison poked DK about their nutella read, and DK poked Alison about her Michelle read. It's all fine and also compatible and softball.

Spoiler: show

okay, i am satisfied i think. i'll hammer in 15mins unless someone wants to stop me?

a) wants cred for hammering scum

b) wants to cut the day short 24 hours early so town have less time to grill him + his teammate

c) "someone wants to stop me?" -> please someone (dk probably?) save my scum buddy and shield her at the last moment

This DK mention may only be incidental by way of their poll tally position, but it exists anyway. She chose them as the one to mention.

Spoiler: show

@Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

why am i towncore

I still think you were threadspewed d0 + if you're mafia you have to be the deepest wolf/mafia's only hope, and your play makes no sense if you're that, + your tone has been consistently townie through many days of you being consensus town, where most mafia would slip a little or push an awkward agenda at some point.

so why am i alive d2?

because there are other people who are obvtown, mafia have only one nightkill, and you were frankly kinda inactive D1? I'm not sure why you're this surprised that you weren't NKed.

I suppose it's nice that DK bothered to ask Alison about her read on them. This doesn't go far though and I can't confidently draw much from it.

From DK about Alison

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Why is nobody talking about LC's scumslip

I highlighted it too

looked like an obvious joke to me

don't see how that's scummy

I don't think he wrote that post in a way that was meant to be taken as a joke though. Like it's sandwiched between two relatively seriously looking reads. I think there's a pretty serious chance that he was just trying to throw out some random made up reads and picked two random names he saw skimming through the thread without realizing he picked the host.

i think u need to eat some bread here you go

[insert giant picture of bread here]

I had posted basically nothing and the posts weren't very good at the time tutuu town read me and she town read me over other more towny players so if her read wasn't a pocket then yeah idk what to say

im sure tuutuu was totally going to you over stronger town players for a pocket as scum :3

what does this mean

it means im being sarcastic. also relax?? we c ant even vote yet why are u so damn tense

This early banter doesn't mean a whole lot. The second post is a bit more... tense? than I think the situation warranted. So that's goofy.

Spoiler: show

[quotes of Alison, nutella, and Made -- return to the post yourselves to see them, I hate huge quotes.] -- JJJ


ladies gentlemen, and enbys, I present to you: your scumteam!

DK stuck Alison on a D0 scum team with nutella and Made based upon some generic interactions between/among the three of them. The read seems silly to me, but Alison is in it so that's worthy of note. I could reach here for an elaborate RuLe oF tHrEe

Spoiler: show

esooa if alison and spf are scum why are u voting for neither

Bland question with Alison in it, meh

Spoiler: show

I dunno everyone tmi’d DkKoba

i'm referring to the fact that made emphasized that there are only three bad guys, but i haven't actually read enough about the setup to know if that's something made could reasonably be confident about

12v3 is confirmed in the first post.

confirmed loser ^

More banter, meh

Spoiler: show

Also Alison is outed mafia. She would sheep my case if she was town and this disconnected.

i think u have massive entitlement issues if thats how youre interpreting someone not sheeping you

This is a defense of Alison by way of attacking Mac's personality lol

Spoiler: show

mac, do you think alison + esooa are teammates?

Mac suspected both Alison and Esooa, so this question is rather default. I don't object to it, and nor is it incompatible.

Spoiler: show

"LC is flipped town"

idk abt u but i trust the viewpoint of a flipped town than an unclear slot but hey thats just me alison.

alison can we talk

what makes u think michelle is mafia

Here's a few quoteless/mentionless posts addressing Alison. They may get her attention, but not in a way that makes me feel anything.

Spoiler: show

michelle can u try to explain at least cuz im pretty sure all of spf/alison/nutela are not all maf that would be kinda bonkers.

I might be remembering this phase of the game incorrectly, but I thought Michelle's proposed team had been SPF/nutella/Esooa? If so, DK replaced Esooa with Alison in that question, for whatever that's worth. @Michelle could clarify.

Spoiler: show

The only thing I know about EM and LGBT stuff is that an NB friend of mine got chased off it by transphobic people, which is not a great look

its a lot more welcoming now

Off-topic, no issues.

Spoiler: show

alison why did u unvote

Spoiler: show

Alison
Esooa
Nutella
DkKoba
NOOK
DOOM
Jay
superbestfriend
Michelle
Grogu
Ellie
Made

why is alison a top TR?

tutuu had named Alison her top town read, and that's what DK is asking about here (that's not DK's reads list). It's a fair question, but it's also worthy of note that it's the only question they felt inclined to ask. Their attention was on Alison.

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: EllieDanger] aubergine

why

That's it.

Conclusion

From Alison's side, the interaction is a pretty simple one. DK was an immediate town read and stayed that way. I don't think that's a terrible or alarming indicator, but it is teammate-compatible. From DK's side, the interaction barely exists. It's just about nothing. I have no idea what DK's read is on Alison pretty much ever. They put her on a specific mafia team of three on Day 0, but there hasn't been a single actual read, at least not that I could find in my search. That's displeasing on its own, but additionally notable given the way Alison town read them constantly -- they had nothing to say about that? I think they could be mafia teammates.

"I might be remembering this phase of the game incorrectly, but I thought Michelle's proposed team had been SPF/nutella/Esooa? If so, DK replaced Esooa with Alison in that question, for whatever that's worth. Michelle could clarify."
When i was pushed by Nutella for what i still think can be in bad faith (or if not bad faith is the worst attack a villager can make and adress at other villager) , all three Nutella Spf and Esooa made my wagon.
Idk if it's clear enough why i had that Poe who was a paranoia driven idea, but i feel the need to explain it.

Looks like @DkKoba should answer at why they put Alison in that team, because Alison was a TR for me in that moment.

Spoiler: show

What no one wanted to consider was that my play lately is searching to obtain reactions and i am always making stances to obtain reads, and when i voted for Esooa i was sure that mafia pushed me immediatly after, no matter Esooa's alignament, just because i was going against the consensus and my stance would create a reason to reevaluate things. I was asked about the Poe and instinctively i posted my wagon and kept it as Poe more stubborn during the day just because everyone jumped with the idea that that is not my town play etc

Such play from me as wolf would be non sensical and even if I am sad you (Jay) didn't notice it like this (meh, you did but not in a decisive way so it was just an idea) what it felt really bad was how Nutella jumped on me with a certain scum read without any interactiom with me and said i can lolcat, thing that i did and also i invited everyone to vote me, and also i selfvoted. I wanted to demonstrate in that very moment that everyone is wrong, not the best play, i am sorry now for it.
Everyone was extremely happy for my break down iirc. I remember Omega attacked Nanook for the vote and i said it's not a big deal because he was invited by me.
I still don't know how to consider Omega for that hidden shade for Nanook.

The day played at -2 until Dkk came and said i am town and i cant be lynched because of that and asked me to not self vote anymore.

My second sad moment after i told you to think at life like i am green was that you didn't do this until the end of the day and kept me in the Poe even at Sod and until Made claimed

So in this game i had Nutella, Alison and you, all players who know me, and know i am an emotional idiot, who all considered i am wolf just for surface level reasons and you needed soemone who sees me for the first time to understand I am villager.

I think everyone can understand paranoia and what i can do is to work to understand how things were played

[Michelle]

also this game is ridiculous.
Folk enter thread like "hey y'all, i'll catch up, but first let me check my mailbox"

[Made]

nutella Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

wait but that logic implies she's with alison

and i dont really think that


so no i'm not sure what's wrong with that take

i think i agreed with her that it looked bad for grogu

Koba flipping out at jay, and their general vibe coming into this gamestate, is super likely scum imo. I'm still going for Alison first but I think they fit together (and Alison's reaction to the Jay/Koba interaction was so opposite from mine so...yeah)

I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

If I am scum what advantage does this give me over just laying down some generic cheap townread on nook and either killing him at night if I genuinely believe he's a PR or just going about my business if I don't

Just because I can come and argue that I would have killed nook if I was scum?

Yes

I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

like i know that sounds confbiasy but my impression is it's legitimately a strategy scum alison would consciously use

i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

this wasn't enough for alison to dismiss looking at a deepwolf esooa world

what "brute force" do i have compared to esooa? i was pretty forceful about michelle early d2 and backed off of even that, otherwise been pretty chill

idgi

in order to not be too hypocritical (hi papa sloon) i prob should consider esooa more (and this is another one idk why alison isn't) bc she fits the same ""archetype"" of having pushed tons of townies

and mac warned us about her scumrange

my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol

This is very bad post. Not only is clear I am town, but Alison is clearly town also. This is concerning post, didn’t you post you used to be a monster at this game? You are as clueless as I am.
Monster inc. type of monster you are

are u trying to spew your partner rn

[VOTE: grogu] aubergine

why do I hate this post

if i'm reading it right it's kind of leaning on alison being mafia and grogu being their teammate but jumping to a vote on grogu instead of alison? idk

still think esooa is fine, but she's probably where i reevaluate first if alison flips town

miss quoted something. think i fixed it....

[Made]

Doom RE: Alison

Spoiler: show

It's weird to me because why does mafia Alison choose Nutella to go on, when that is a harder road than others.

Maybe she is town? hmm

I still want to vote Alison for the dropping of the town read of me for no seeable reason other than needing a spot in poe

I like all of the Alison voters though, meh I think I am fine with it

I think there being so much consensus on Alison makes me want to not kill her lmao

If Koba is mafia, I find that she spews SPF town, with what seem like a couple pocket like attempts.

Koba did not give much on Alison, which could be a likely partner, same with Grogu

[Made]

Grogu re: alison

Spoiler: show

This is the most I ever posted on a game by far I believe. I must have like 200 posts. That’s ridiculous.
Also I have been forthcoming the whole game. I have struggled to see “scum”.
I have felt that neither do most players here as shown by who we baked so far.
I think the leaders are leading us to hell.

That being said:
I don’t see why tutuu gets shot by scum...
I believe she’s likely scum, but I don’t know how to prove that or look at posts and say: there I found the clues.
People I don’t trust either:
koba, jagged, esso and the aforementioned tuttuu but this later one I’m not sure about.
Trust me or not, we are all wrong and I highly believe Alison is another miss. They are like me and omega just easy low hanging fruits. If any of us is scum is likely omega since someone said he was a great player and I have yet to see that so he’s likely fooling us.

Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

@Alison vote essoa

no. see my post

I think you are town. If I have to vote you to save myself I will. Therefore you are going to Jill yourself or kill me and that’s going to result in town flip. Do you but I guarantee you die before me FYI

Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...

I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

[Michelle]

I think there's at least two baddies in
alison/Nanook/JJJ/grogu
I'd argue there's three
in order from civvie to wolf
JJJ
Grogu
Nanook
Alison

I'm really not seeing the DoOm tinfoil, but i'll recheck the beginning of the day eventually

Why does there have to be three in this list?

None of us pushed pet reads or narratives very hard D2 - I don't think we had a particularly large hand in setting up the Ellie/Made/Michelle dichotomy. What makes you think town just self destructed as opposed to being guided, when the latter is much more common and makes more sense?

no pet reads were really needed on D2, you just had to ride it out. imo D2 was set up on D1

also, Nanook and JJJ are really weird when looked at together because both had incentive to push me harder than they did.

Nanook cuz i was his scum read and both Ellie and Michelle he had as green
JJJ because his theories was based on either Ellie x Made or Michelle x Made
I don't think it would of been hard get Ellie and Michelle to vote me yesterday. Something about this is weird.

It makes sense NOT to push here if you know i'm not bad
@Michelle @staypositivefriend thoughts here?

I agree, with the game set on a Poe 100% green, mafia would not have the need to push reads in day 2, they had only the reason to consolidate the existing Poe.

[Made]

Made re: Alison

Spoiler: show

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

let's say it this way: If we mislynch, we should reevaluate everything.

I think Alison is shifty. yes, her/your if x then y makes sense, but what i'm saying is that's something that helps you/her, alison, to determine if she trust Esooa's read. it feels over explainy.
I think nutella is shifty because of interaction with JJJ who is my biggest scum read
I think i trust tutuu most, which is a 180 from where i was like 3 pages

I don't have enough trust in anyone to make a towncore, especially one based on mindmelds when they aren't alignment indicative.

I also also don't like how Alison positioned Mac (i think it was alison?) as a person who could break up towncore if he shows up and is bad. It implies that the only reason someone would have to break up a towncore would be because they're bad.

This all feels too fast and far too loose and i'm not liking none of it at towncore building stage

Saying my post was over explainy is fine. Calling it gaslighting and manipulative makes no sense. Those two accusations don't track together, either.

Why is JJJ scummy, and what interaction does nut have with him that makes her look bad?

The towncore people are townreading each other for reasons beyond mindmelds. If you don't trust the towncore, more power to you, but it's not accurate to say that they're just mindlessly sheeping each other because of mindmelds.

Also it's nanook who posited that, but also you're taking that whole take out of context anyway. The idea was that JJJ would not panic despite being in the POE as scum if he has a scum buddy competent enough to turn the tables.

I don't like the passive voices i've highlighed here

further, i feel like if Alison wasn't bad, mafia would jump at opportunity to follow the case to get her lynched. Sure, they could of just went with the Lc->ellie->Made->michelle->spf plan, but like i don't see a reason not to add Alison to the list of players to push. there would of been no pushback from 3 town (me, michelle, spf, tutuu, and so on), maybe even more.

Yeah, I'm tunneling a bit, but I should be able to come out of it like i did on tutuu when reading other players....

Okay y'all. Write out your hypotetical towncores, because i don't think they line up.

Like Alison, SPF isn't even in your towncore???

They don't even have to. Not everyone in the towncore has to share the exact same reads. It's about a critical mass of trust coming into play. Sure, I may not have a solid reason to trust X personally, but I don't have any particular suspicion on them, and I trust Y and Z greatly, and Y and Z both trust X. So I extend trust to X as a result of that, and take them out of the POE. I don't need to directly townread everyone else in the towncore so much as I do need to not scumread them and trust that my actual townreads can read them.

I get that. it's about consolidating around trust.
but like there doesn't seem to be much if any overlap, unless you define towncore to be a process where trust is defined implicitly: Where the people who are trusted the most trust the reads of the people they trust most and a PoE appears organically, but that doesn't not sound like what towncore is.

towncore from my understanding is an explict list of players who town trust. sure, the list isn't going to be the same exact for all players-- one person off here one person off there-- but what it feels like you're describing here as a towncore is a town daisychain.
I think the difference there is less than just semantic

I mean I think there's significant overlap

Alison's investment in towncore at this point i'd say is pretty AI

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

Agreed, Alison is very awkward here.

Reasons I’m voting Alison rn

1. Bad Day on vote record
2. Awkward around the PR reveals

in light of me, made, michelle, and ellie all being town, it's obvious that the scum have been manipulating this game and pulling it into a certain narrative. i felt consistently throughout yesterday that something was "weird" about this game - and it's obvious now that the thing i found so weird was the fact that the scum was bruteforcing the POE into a specific direction

in my opinion, a reveal like this should make every town player here start their reads over from scratch & use that information to determine who's been pushing the game into a direction that's advantageous for scum

Or town have been hard pushing town

Either way I’m not starting from scratch lol

okay, i'm just gonna brain dumping and see if we can build it into anything that makes sense
two scenaros:
Situation . Mafia has been running train on thread: JJJ,nutella, alison
Situation . Mafia has just been going with that flow: tutuu, nanook, grogu, doom

i'm starting to have real doubt about it being nutella wolf because:
1. that means they didn't give nutella the kill day one, which means they have probably an even townier person to give the kill (or they vig'd night one. Is there reason not to vig n1?)
2. Mac, Nanook, JJJ, LC, Tutuu, and Alison have all consistently ruled her out till this point. she deserves the win if this is the case tbh

in Situation the confusion we've felt has come from dissenting voice that just didn't make sense. Alison is good at logicing, if she's town, hopefully there's enough here for her to win it for us. if she's not town, then boom, got one. basically, @Alison solve the game or we're baking you (if ur not too busy, thx )

Doom has also been saying she has felt super confused this game, so that's not a green check but a point to weigh in her. Especially if we're in Situation and not Situation

I feel like confusion vibes more with a Situation but, someone made the point that this game maybe the kind of game that needs to be supported by analysis, and not just vibes. so again, @Alison , u got this!!! unless you don't in which case

[Michelle]

Alison + Grogu + DOOM is the wolf team

1 if you are lucky. Likely zero
I think we kill tutti and get a wolf. No way a wolf team that’s so hidden and picking us off thinks this player right here was the “threat” to them. I think they are way in the end of the possible threats to scum. She’s right next to me haha. We are cute and easily manipulated...

Can anyone good at this game explain why is tutti ever the scum target? I don’t see it.

I am not good at this game, did anyone answer that?

[Made]

Michelle did her own Re:Alison because she's great

idk how big can be an Iso for Alison, but I want to reach a post I remember from the middle of day 1
here are signs of possible agenda in every post.

Spoiler: show

ordered

Bombs
DkKoba
JJJ

Removal
Esooa
nanook

Evasion
nutella
lurkers/one-posters
tutuu

Aggro
SPF

Duds
LC

LC is the first push made by Alison

Dk is inno child by the way. Threadspewed/TMI'd out the ass and has not trended down in terms of tone after being townread by half the game.

pocketing Dk here I think

I'm sorry about the rand michelle

this 'joke' was meant to start a discussion who succeed to put me in the Poe and is agenda-y

idk if there's one in esooa/tutuu ehhh

could be one in jay/made, prolly made

I veto jay

I have one reason to townread him but I think it's a really reliable and good reason

pocketing Jay, and if Alison is wolf the possibility of being with Nutella are pretty high

I'm sorry about the rand michelle

the alison mindmelds go on and on and on

I don't like this. y'alls last mindmeld alison was bad?

nutella and me mindmeld regardless of our respective alignments, I don't think she even sees it as AI at this point she's just using it as a fancy "I agree"

well, the regardless thingy is a curious choice of words

Alison is town i think, i can feel it

why am I town for explaining the mtg joke?

She looks like she wanted to discredit me for the read. Discussing and questioning town reads on themselves are bold wolf tactics, and Alison if wolf can play like this

esooa/tutuu is probably T/T

swap tutuu with DoO in my POE and I am happy with it.

These are changes made with the thread's flow

I actually think Made is the highest scum equity player here because they can be scum in like every world but Michelle/Omega etc. have their scum equity reduced if Made isn't scum (becauase it doesn't make sense to pocket or TMI him in that situation)

constructing world so early is a known scum tactic but here she expressed it in a way that looked like she is clearing me and Omega if Made flips scum. Looked like a real thought, and was a thing who was strengthening my town read on Alison then

The tell is that I think nutella mafia would pretend to be cagey about townreading me due to fake suspicion about being pocketed, which would simultaneously discredit me and make her look like a Paranoid Townie.

nutella town just says whatever's on her mind and what she really believes without thinking about how it makes her look.

I understand such take about Nutella, but what if they are both part of the scum team?

both michelle and daughterofomega have given weird townreads of made that are out of tune with the rest of the thread


is that just the team lmao

Sometimes you have to realize that the evil want to fit in and gain the innocent's favor. You want to attack the people on their own, or giving takes that put themselves outside of the majority. This is something that some town do, because their ideas and thoughts are genuine, and instead of tailoring their responses to gain credit, they just say what is true to them.

Any credit given to this slot for posting thoughts that go against the grain should be revoked because they are clearly aware it is a townie thing to do and are fishing for cred for it

a chain full of wifom
the shade for Omega can be distancing if Alison is scum

why is coming back to thread a towntell in general actually? I've seen it waved around a bit but like I do it extensively as both alignments and it's always because:

1) I like playing mafia and decided I want to play more
2) I have new thoughts about the game to share
3) I said I was going to sleep but I had insomnia again

and all three things are NAI

Alison disagrees what Nanook said is a town tell for me, even if she knows this is a habit I have and she put effort in showing he is wrong.

I think my towncore is Dk, Esooa, JJJ, nutella, tutuu, maybe nook. Unless I am being completely outplayed this should be close enough to the truth (if not just the straight truth) to roll over the game given the players involved.

the coloured word is preparing for her being wrong because she may be outplayed. I saw Alison villager at MU, she was not afraid of being outplayed, I don't remember this, and she found me villager even if I was just gif posting

I feel like this is the kind of game where you just form a towncore and then roll them over with brute force

also where is LC

again, push for LC but not a direct case

lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

looks like TMI

[Made]

@esooa -

coming into today, you seemed especially certain that i was mafia

has learning that i'm town recontextualized your understanding of the game? has it made you consider a world where you could have been pocketed by someone pushing the same agenda?

it seems your focus is on tutuu, and that's a good avenue to explore today, but i'm especially curious about your thoughts in players like nutella/jagged/alison

it makes me scum read jjj way more. I still am uncertain on the possibility of Nutella being scum, I just don't see it in her demeanor and such, but she's definitely deserving of a re-read atp. I already scum read Alison a lot

only one I could find from Esooa

[Made]

Alison on herself

Spoiler: show

So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

I'm posting in between classes and can't keep up with the speed of the thread. I'm gonna finish everything up and hopefully find time to play. Can the people who have me at the bottom of their scumlists please explain why (unless you already have) because I don't enjoy it when all the townie shit I do gets dismissed as "Alison could have faked this as scum, oh well, everyone else is townie, guess she's the exe by default".

If you're going to exe me off that you better commit to sheeping my solve after I flip.

[Made]

Last only post from Nanook

Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

I did not lol, but that was a silly reason to TR me—I “soft” a PR in most games I play, or so I’m told, by saying stuff like “you can’t kill me” or “I’m literally confirmed town” when I’m not.

I think there was a particularly insistent way you repeated it that went beyond playstyle/WIFOM but eh. How come you didn't seem at all curious why I had a tight-lipped townread on you?

I figured it would come out eventually

[Made]

As Michelle and JJJ also just pointed out, DK has said nothing in either direction about Alison
@DkKoba What do you think about alison and why?

[DaughterOfOmega]

Koba is mafia that is why!

[Michelle]

So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

Alison how the mindmeld you claimed existing regardless alignament is not a pocket attempt or budding for Nutella?

[Michelle]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

[Made]

Here's everything anyone has said about Alison this game in a pretty neat package for easy consumption

Spoiler: show

Gonna do this bit by bit cuz otherwise i'll never post it....
this is starting from maybe an hour from time of post to when SPF claimed JK. If you have something to add to this lmk. If you have something you want to change about what you've said or correct your self or whatever, also say.
I avoided "alison is bad because she's teammates with X" (sorry J) or post like " Alison, ur so baddd omgggg"

Tutuu Re:Alison
Tutuu

Spoiler: show

doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

made and michelle and even spf escaping the poe must have been a huge emotional blow for the wolves. this was such a turnaround

i believe that could be related to the way grogu and DOOM both felt really irked and annoyed towards me without being provoked to do so from my point of view

both of them have been scumread in the past days and have shown no such reactions before

I've had the same feeling. Town has every reason to be stoked and rejuvenated today.

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

i find grogu and doom's behaviors weird, alison and dkkoba have had no reactions

so hyped that i wanna post while resting between sets

assuming no cc,

spf - jailkeeper. n1 nutella n2 tutuu
made - cop. n1 holster n2 michelle town
michelle - peeked town

tutuu

leaves me with:
alison
doom
koba
esooa
grogu
jjj
nanook

we can make 2 more misyeets, even if mafia vigs someone we don't lose our 2 free attempts. also if spf manages to jailkeep exactly the mafia killer tonight we win a 3rd free misyeet and potentially auto win, gl gl @staypositivefriend

god my abs hurt and i cant breathe

lets go with 2 free misyeets, that pool of 7 i can reduce to 7-2=5, and the 3 mafia are there and i cant make a mistake. therefore i simply need to find 5-3=2 townreads among that list of 7 and i have auto

trustfall:

alison - had some logical inconsistencies that i think arent an attribute of her scum game; had some stern and towny tonal posts of "stop scumreading me ur playing poorly", has been pretty reasonable and has pushed the game forward
*snip*

----------------

distrustfull:

alison - is capable of being uber towny as scum, is capable of doing pretty much all of her posts she has posted this game as scum, was content with the status quo and poe on day 1 which we now see was completely and entirely wrong
*snip*

i just realized all of this effort is for nothing if someone cc's so lol me, but, wont be the first time i feel embarassed at myself and wont be the last so whatever

1 more set

out of the trustfalls i found it easiest to come up with esooa and weirdly enough grogu. and hardest to come up with jjj and nanook

out of the distrustfalls i found it easiest to come up with alison and doom. hardest to come up with .... jjj and nanook once again. which is bizarre.

doom started off pushing on alison, reversed that to a townread, then stopped caring about her. last thing i remember from her is saying "i wanna develop my alison read nice and slowly"

lol @ calling those interactions non-partnery

doom is not describing her play properly and fairly, its not necessarily scummy since some townies like to display uncalled for confidence and arbitrarily claim they are lock town for no reason, but its slimy and i dont like it

Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

Same question as nutella applies to you too, @tutuu. I saw you mentioned me and suspect me of pocketing you. I have not been pocketing you, and I would not target you to pocket if I was scum.

I think you're scum because our consensus PoE on the first two days was completely wrong, you seem to have been comfortable in that situation, someone has to be wolf, and you're more than capable of fooling us and being towny

JaggedJimmyJay RE: Alison

Spoiler: show

If DK and Grogu don't fit together, the [Alison has no team in my POE] prophecy is fully realized. Either the POE is shit or she is just town.

@jagged -

would you mind walking me through the thought process that's making you heavily consider an alison!town world right now? is it because the arguments she made on the last page were particularly convincing to you? what resonated?

It was my analyses of her interactions within my POE. I began assessing with this POE: [Alison, Omega, Grogu, DK, Esooa] and found that Alison is a poor fit with both Omega and Esooa. So for her to be mafia, if my assessments are accurate, she would have to be teamed with exactly Grogu and DK. That is on its own power unlikely, and if not then that means 1) she's town, 2) my analyses of Omega/Esooa were flawed, or 3) she would fit better with someone outside my POE instead.

I haven't looked into #3 yet. But then she popped in with her legacy and I think it looks pretty authentic. So my current feeling is that #1 is the answer.

@Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

Immediately emerging note from my Alison analyses:

For my current POE (Alison, Grogu, Omega, DK, Esooa) to be correct, then my analysis suggests the team would have to be exactly [Alison, Grogu, DK]. Alison fits poorly with Esooa and Omega. If it isn't exactly that, then I already have something wrong. So please y'all, take a look at my shit and tell me how you feel. My reads haven't been great this game, so I cannot claim to have piles of confidence.

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

I agree with nutella in that, at least right this moment, I struggle to conceptualize the game without Alison being mafia. She serves as a ringleader of sorts and allows town to cannibalize, all while ushering the bad consensus onward from a place of relative detachment. She could be carrying lower-volume players or teamed with a goat, but I really doubt the team is something like [Grogu, Omega, DK] or something similarly easy-world.

Doesn't mean she's evil and I'll always keep listening blah blah, but that's where I'm at.

I suppose tutuu and Alison both would fit the "started hot and tailed off" stencil shape for mafia

SPF Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

the only thing that makes me concerned about an alison vote today is that i am heavily tinfoiling tutuu, and that's exactly where tutuu is voting

hmm

@Allison reads list pls unless you've posted one recently

Towncore: DK, Esooa, nanook, nutella, tutuu, JJJ
Knocking on the door: SPF, DOOM
Townread: Grogu
POE: Michelle, Made, Ellie

DOOM and Grogu move around a bit, but this is roughly where I have them at right now. JJJ has been too in-sync with me today for me to leave him out of the towncore, and I don't think mafia is in a good enough position that they can afford to just have the exact same stance as me to pocket me. If JJJ is scum he has to push his own agenda, not just sheep me. I've had a couple of interactions with SPF that make me more confident about her, and that's why she's knocking at the towncore's door. I particularly liked the "chill" vibe I got from her when I quizzed her about how she feels about people not clearing her.

Grogu has moved in my reads. I'm still conflicted because his actual pushes are kinda opportunistic on a base level but I don't have a hard time believing he would do this as town and he comes off as honest and transparent in his posting.

I'm seeing more tinfoil towards the "middle" slots like me/SPF/JJJ/nook. I currently have townreads on all of these players and no particular inclination to tinfoil any of them.

^^two posts from alison from yesterday that pinged me at the time, and ping me slightly more now. they are focused on asserting the incorrect consensus POE while downplaying the possibility of tinfoils in the "middle" slots.

in fairness to alison, she started entertaining "tinfoil" shortly after making this post, but i want to present these for posterity's sake

hello, i'm at work and don't have a ton of time to dedicate to my solving right now, but i'm staying caught up with the thread and i will drop my two cents when i have the ability

i would like to chime in and say that i am personally not interested in a DOOM chop today. i feel that her posts in the last hour or so have a respectable amount of town equity, and even if i'm wrong about that fact, there is zero world where DOOM!scum survives until the endgame. if she is scum, then her lynch is somewhat of an inevitability. in that regard, i would like to go for a deeper scum today. my gut and my brain are currently pointing me to alison, but i'm not married to that stance just yet. however, i do not personally feel that alison has towntold yet today.

i do feel that nanook and tutuu have, though

thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

i'm confused about the claim that alison is "frozen" when she hasn't posted. if she hasn't posted isn't it possible that's asleep, or distracted, or etc?

i'm far from opposed to considering an alison scum!world, but that seems like a leap

hi Doom, ur next!

nutella Re: Alison

Spoiler: show

wait but that logic implies she's with alison

and i dont really think that


so no i'm not sure what's wrong with that take

i think i agreed with her that it looked bad for grogu

Koba flipping out at jay, and their general vibe coming into this gamestate, is super likely scum imo. I'm still going for Alison first but I think they fit together (and Alison's reaction to the Jay/Koba interaction was so opposite from mine so...yeah)

I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

If I am scum what advantage does this give me over just laying down some generic cheap townread on nook and either killing him at night if I genuinely believe he's a PR or just going about my business if I don't

Just because I can come and argue that I would have killed nook if I was scum?

Yes

I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

like i know that sounds confbiasy but my impression is it's legitimately a strategy scum alison would consciously use

i mean actually i think the two megaposts are a decent point towards alison being mafia because crafting those kinds of narratives is absolutely her scum meta and the fact that she waited so long to post after the pr stuff started and crafted this very long "here's why i'm right and you should listen" novel points to her being scum cooking it up

didn't you characterize alison's megaposts as "fairly convincing" on http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 94#p710094? i am confused

yes that's exactly the problem

it's alison

Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

this wasn't enough for alison to dismiss looking at a deepwolf esooa world

what "brute force" do i have compared to esooa? i was pretty forceful about michelle early d2 and backed off of even that, otherwise been pretty chill

idgi

in order to not be too hypocritical (hi papa sloon) i prob should consider esooa more (and this is another one idk why alison isn't) bc she fits the same ""archetype"" of having pushed tons of townies

and mac warned us about her scumrange

my hope is that Alison or Grogu flip mafia, so that I can post my interactions with them and be town lol

This is very bad post. Not only is clear I am town, but Alison is clearly town also. This is concerning post, didn’t you post you used to be a monster at this game? You are as clueless as I am.
Monster inc. type of monster you are

why do I hate this post

if i'm reading it right it's kind of leaning on alison being mafia and grogu being their teammate but jumping to a vote on grogu instead of alison? idk

still think esooa is fine, but she's probably where i reevaluate first if alison flips town

miss quoted something. think i fixed it....

Doom RE: Alison

Spoiler: show

It's weird to me because why does mafia Alison choose Nutella to go on, when that is a harder road than others.

Maybe she is town? hmm

I still want to vote Alison for the dropping of the town read of me for no seeable reason other than needing a spot in poe

I like all of the Alison voters though, meh I think I am fine with it

I think there being so much consensus on Alison makes me want to not kill her lmao

If Koba is mafia, I find that she spews SPF town, with what seem like a couple pocket like attempts.

Koba did not give much on Alison, which could be a likely partner, same with Grogu

Grogu re: alison

Spoiler: show

This is the most I ever posted on a game by far I believe. I must have like 200 posts. That’s ridiculous.
Also I have been forthcoming the whole game. I have struggled to see “scum”.
I have felt that neither do most players here as shown by who we baked so far.
I think the leaders are leading us to hell.

That being said:
I don’t see why tutuu gets shot by scum...
I believe she’s likely scum, but I don’t know how to prove that or look at posts and say: there I found the clues.
People I don’t trust either:
koba, jagged, esso and the aforementioned tuttuu but this later one I’m not sure about.
Trust me or not, we are all wrong and I highly believe Alison is another miss. They are like me and omega just easy low hanging fruits. If any of us is scum is likely omega since someone said he was a great player and I have yet to see that so he’s likely fooling us.

Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

@Alison vote essoa

no. see my post

I think you are town. If I have to vote you to save myself I will. Therefore you are going to Jill yourself or kill me and that’s going to result in town flip. Do you but I guarantee you die before me FYI

Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...

I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

Made re: Alison

Spoiler: show

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

let's say it this way: If we mislynch, we should reevaluate everything.

I think Alison is shifty. yes, her/your if x then y makes sense, but what i'm saying is that's something that helps you/her, alison, to determine if she trust Esooa's read. it feels over explainy.
I think nutella is shifty because of interaction with JJJ who is my biggest scum read
I think i trust tutuu most, which is a 180 from where i was like 3 pages

I don't have enough trust in anyone to make a towncore, especially one based on mindmelds when they aren't alignment indicative.

I also also don't like how Alison positioned Mac (i think it was alison?) as a person who could break up towncore if he shows up and is bad. It implies that the only reason someone would have to break up a towncore would be because they're bad.

This all feels too fast and far too loose and i'm not liking none of it at towncore building stage

Saying my post was over explainy is fine. Calling it gaslighting and manipulative makes no sense. Those two accusations don't track together, either.

Why is JJJ scummy, and what interaction does nut have with him that makes her look bad?

The towncore people are townreading each other for reasons beyond mindmelds. If you don't trust the towncore, more power to you, but it's not accurate to say that they're just mindlessly sheeping each other because of mindmelds.

Also it's nanook who posited that, but also you're taking that whole take out of context anyway. The idea was that JJJ would not panic despite being in the POE as scum if he has a scum buddy competent enough to turn the tables.

I don't like the passive voices i've highlighed here

further, i feel like if Alison wasn't bad, mafia would jump at opportunity to follow the case to get her lynched. Sure, they could of just went with the Lc->ellie->Made->michelle->spf plan, but like i don't see a reason not to add Alison to the list of players to push. there would of been no pushback from 3 town (me, michelle, spf, tutuu, and so on), maybe even more.

Yeah, I'm tunneling a bit, but I should be able to come out of it like i did on tutuu when reading other players....

Okay y'all. Write out your hypotetical towncores, because i don't think they line up.

Like Alison, SPF isn't even in your towncore???

They don't even have to. Not everyone in the towncore has to share the exact same reads. It's about a critical mass of trust coming into play. Sure, I may not have a solid reason to trust X personally, but I don't have any particular suspicion on them, and I trust Y and Z greatly, and Y and Z both trust X. So I extend trust to X as a result of that, and take them out of the POE. I don't need to directly townread everyone else in the towncore so much as I do need to not scumread them and trust that my actual townreads can read them.

I get that. it's about consolidating around trust.
but like there doesn't seem to be much if any overlap, unless you define towncore to be a process where trust is defined implicitly: Where the people who are trusted the most trust the reads of the people they trust most and a PoE appears organically, but that doesn't not sound like what towncore is.

towncore from my understanding is an explict list of players who town trust. sure, the list isn't going to be the same exact for all players-- one person off here one person off there-- but what it feels like you're describing here as a towncore is a town daisychain.
I think the difference there is less than just semantic

I mean I think there's significant overlap

Alison's investment in towncore at this point i'd say is pretty AI

To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?

I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

Agreed, Alison is very awkward here.

Reasons I’m voting Alison rn

1. Bad Day on vote record
2. Awkward around the PR reveals

in light of me, made, michelle, and ellie all being town, it's obvious that the scum have been manipulating this game and pulling it into a certain narrative. i felt consistently throughout yesterday that something was "weird" about this game - and it's obvious now that the thing i found so weird was the fact that the scum was bruteforcing the POE into a specific direction

in my opinion, a reveal like this should make every town player here start their reads over from scratch & use that information to determine who's been pushing the game into a direction that's advantageous for scum

Or town have been hard pushing town

Either way I’m not starting from scratch lol

okay, i'm just gonna brain dumping and see if we can build it into anything that makes sense
two scenaros:
Situation . Mafia has been running train on thread: JJJ,nutella, alison
Situation . Mafia has just been going with that flow: tutuu, nanook, grogu, doom

i'm starting to have real doubt about it being nutella wolf because:
1. that means they didn't give nutella the kill day one, which means they have probably an even townier person to give the kill (or they vig'd night one. Is there reason not to vig n1?)
2. Mac, Nanook, JJJ, LC, Tutuu, and Alison have all consistently ruled her out till this point. she deserves the win if this is the case tbh

in Situation the confusion we've felt has come from dissenting voice that just didn't make sense. Alison is good at logicing, if she's town, hopefully there's enough here for her to win it for us. if she's not town, then boom, got one. basically, @Alison solve the game or we're baking you (if ur not too busy, thx )

Doom has also been saying she has felt super confused this game, so that's not a green check but a point to weigh in her. Especially if we're in Situation and not Situation

I feel like confusion vibes more with a Situation but, someone made the point that this game maybe the kind of game that needs to be supported by analysis, and not just vibes. so again, @Alison , u got this!!! unless you don't in which case

Michelle did her own Re:Alison because she's great

idk how big can be an Iso for Alison, but I want to reach a post I remember from the middle of day 1
here are signs of possible agenda in every post.

Spoiler: show

ordered

Bombs
DkKoba
JJJ

Removal
Esooa
nanook

Evasion
nutella
lurkers/one-posters
tutuu

Aggro
SPF

Duds
LC

LC is the first push made by Alison

Dk is inno child by the way. Threadspewed/TMI'd out the ass and has not trended down in terms of tone after being townread by half the game.

pocketing Dk here I think

I'm sorry about the rand michelle

this 'joke' was meant to start a discussion who succeed to put me in the Poe and is agenda-y

idk if there's one in esooa/tutuu ehhh

could be one in jay/made, prolly made

I veto jay

I have one reason to townread him but I think it's a really reliable and good reason

pocketing Jay, and if Alison is wolf the possibility of being with Nutella are pretty high

I'm sorry about the rand michelle

the alison mindmelds go on and on and on

I don't like this. y'alls last mindmeld alison was bad?

nutella and me mindmeld regardless of our respective alignments, I don't think she even sees it as AI at this point she's just using it as a fancy "I agree"

well, the regardless thingy is a curious choice of words

Alison is town i think, i can feel it

why am I town for explaining the mtg joke?

She looks like she wanted to discredit me for the read. Discussing and questioning town reads on themselves are bold wolf tactics, and Alison if wolf can play like this

esooa/tutuu is probably T/T

swap tutuu with DoO in my POE and I am happy with it.

These are changes made with the thread's flow

I actually think Made is the highest scum equity player here because they can be scum in like every world but Michelle/Omega etc. have their scum equity reduced if Made isn't scum (becauase it doesn't make sense to pocket or TMI him in that situation)

constructing world so early is a known scum tactic but here she expressed it in a way that looked like she is clearing me and Omega if Made flips scum. Looked like a real thought, and was a thing who was strengthening my town read on Alison then

The tell is that I think nutella mafia would pretend to be cagey about townreading me due to fake suspicion about being pocketed, which would simultaneously discredit me and make her look like a Paranoid Townie.

nutella town just says whatever's on her mind and what she really believes without thinking about how it makes her look.

I understand such take about Nutella, but what if they are both part of the scum team?

both michelle and daughterofomega have given weird townreads of made that are out of tune with the rest of the thread


is that just the team lmao

Sometimes you have to realize that the evil want to fit in and gain the innocent's favor. You want to attack the people on their own, or giving takes that put themselves outside of the majority. This is something that some town do, because their ideas and thoughts are genuine, and instead of tailoring their responses to gain credit, they just say what is true to them.

Any credit given to this slot for posting thoughts that go against the grain should be revoked because they are clearly aware it is a townie thing to do and are fishing for cred for it

a chain full of wifom
the shade for Omega can be distancing if Alison is scum

why is coming back to thread a towntell in general actually? I've seen it waved around a bit but like I do it extensively as both alignments and it's always because:

1) I like playing mafia and decided I want to play more
2) I have new thoughts about the game to share
3) I said I was going to sleep but I had insomnia again

and all three things are NAI

Alison disagrees what Nanook said is a town tell for me, even if she knows this is a habit I have and she put effort in showing he is wrong.

I think my towncore is Dk, Esooa, JJJ, nutella, tutuu, maybe nook. Unless I am being completely outplayed this should be close enough to the truth (if not just the straight truth) to roll over the game given the players involved.

the coloured word is preparing for her being wrong because she may be outplayed. I saw Alison villager at MU, she was not afraid of being outplayed, I don't remember this, and she found me villager even if I was just gif posting

I feel like this is the kind of game where you just form a towncore and then roll them over with brute force

also where is LC

again, push for LC but not a direct case

lol dude i know i can, you literally showed me how you play mafia. get fucked kid if youre mafia this game youre as good as toast

lock town

looks like TMI

@esooa -

coming into today, you seemed especially certain that i was mafia

has learning that i'm town recontextualized your understanding of the game? has it made you consider a world where you could have been pocketed by someone pushing the same agenda?

it seems your focus is on tutuu, and that's a good avenue to explore today, but i'm especially curious about your thoughts in players like nutella/jagged/alison

it makes me scum read jjj way more. I still am uncertain on the possibility of Nutella being scum, I just don't see it in her demeanor and such, but she's definitely deserving of a re-read atp. I already scum read Alison a lot

only one I could find from Esooa

Alison on herself

Spoiler: show

So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

I'm posting in between classes and can't keep up with the speed of the thread. I'm gonna finish everything up and hopefully find time to play. Can the people who have me at the bottom of their scumlists please explain why (unless you already have) because I don't enjoy it when all the townie shit I do gets dismissed as "Alison could have faked this as scum, oh well, everyone else is townie, guess she's the exe by default".

If you're going to exe me off that you better commit to sheeping my solve after I flip.

Last only post from Nanook

Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?

I did not lol, but that was a silly reason to TR me—I “soft” a PR in most games I play, or so I’m told, by saying stuff like “you can’t kill me” or “I’m literally confirmed town” when I’m not.

I think there was a particularly insistent way you repeated it that went beyond playstyle/WIFOM but eh. How come you didn't seem at all curious why I had a tight-lipped townread on you?

I figured it would come out eventually

[Michelle]

Spoiler: show

Who's getting baked today? (It takes 8 votes to hammer the bread)
Poll runs till Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:00 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


Alison
4
29%
Voters: Made, nutella, DaughterOfOmega, tutuu
DaughterOfOmega
2
14%
Voters: DkKoba, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
DkKoba
0
No votes
Voters: None
Esooa
1
7%
Voters: Grogu
Grogu
0
No votes
Voters: None
JaggedJimmyJay
0
No votes
Voters: None
Made
0
No votes
Voters: None
Michelle
0
No votes
Voters: None
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
0
No votes
Voters: None
nutella
2
14%
Voters: Alison, Esooa
staypositivefriend
0
No votes
Voters: None
tutuu
0
No votes
Voters: None
No Bake
0
No votes
Voters: None
Unvote
0
No votes
Voters: None
Croissant!!! (Host, Mods, Nonplayers, Deads)
5
36%
Voters: MartinGG99, MacDougall, Epignosis, juliets, Marmot

Wagons now

[Made]

So after doing that I think it's DK, Alison, JJJ/Nanook.

Nutella takes seem REALLY hard to fake for me

[DaughterOfOmega]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

Sorry I won't let you throw the game

[Michelle]

So after doing that I think it's DK, Alison, JJJ/Nanook.

Nutella takes seem REALLY hard to fake for me

There is a possibility for me to be 100% wrong on Nutella but she started first

[Michelle]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

Sorry I won't let you throw the game

Please give me the logical explanation for scum Dkkoba to save me when i was so close to the hammer, instead end the day earlier and show how everyone who pushed me was wrong?
I mean hammering would be the easiest thing to do, why take the hard path?

[Michelle]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

Sorry I won't let you throw the game

Please give me the logical explanation for scum Dkkoba to save me when i was so close to the hammer, instead end the day earlier and show how everyone who pushed me was wrong?
I mean hammering would be the easiest thing to do, why take the hard path?

[Michelle]

Oops, sorry for double post ^^

[Made]

Alison did make a very good point tho, if she is town she would be a very smart player to turbo as Mafia right now. But the only people who are turboing her are Me, Tutuu, Nutella, doom.

I'm town
Nutella's read seem really genuine
Tutuu's theories seem likely and even follow the kinda logic from Alison's Will and Testimate (Notices a wrong POE on d1, and milks it through calculated pushes through Btsc that are hard to pin back to any one play)
Doom is just chaotic af

This who situation reads super authentic.

I think we caught one y'all!!!

[Made]

@staypositivefriend ^^^^ I think it has to be Alison. It makes a lot of things make sense imo.

[DaughterOfOmega]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

Sorry I won't let you throw the game

Please give me the logical explanation for scum Dkkoba to save me when i was so close to the hammer, instead end the day earlier and show how everyone who pushed me was wrong?
I mean hammering would be the easiest thing to do, why take the hard path?

I've already broken down the entire game of Koba and shown why they are mafia.

Your reasoning is bad, there was zero threat of a mafia dying when you were in hammer range, all Koba does is bring bad attention if they hammer you.

Get a grip Michelle

[Made]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

Sorry I won't let you throw the game

Please give me the logical explanation for scum Dkkoba to save me when i was so close to the hammer, instead end the day earlier and show how everyone who pushed me was wrong?
I mean hammering would be the easiest thing to do, why take the hard path?

I've already broken down the entire game of Koba and shown why they are mafia.

Your reasoning is bad, there was zero threat of a mafia dying when you were in hammer range, all Koba does is bring bad attention if they hammer you.

Get a grip Michelle

I wouldn't say your reasoning is bad Michelle, but If koba is bad with alison, and alison was afk at the beginning of the day, any sort of cordinated effort would of been delayed until she returns to thread today. That could explain their lack of content on her.

The hard path makes a lot of sense here if a super heady player is on the mafia team

[Michelle]

Koba is mafia that is why!

You will have to kill me before Poe-ing Koba

Sorry I won't let you throw the game

Please give me the logical explanation for scum Dkkoba to save me when i was so close to the hammer, instead end the day earlier and show how everyone who pushed me was wrong?
I mean hammering would be the easiest thing to do, why take the hard path?

I've already broken down the entire game of Koba and shown why they are mafia.

Your reasoning is bad, there was zero threat of a mafia dying when you were in hammer range, all Koba does is bring bad attention if they hammer you.

Get a grip Michelle

I still have to read 500 posts, let me catch up and i will be back at you with an answer.

[Made]

DKkoba not hammering Michelle and then Alison hammering Ellie is such a big brain play---but it reads like a play too

[Michelle]

Alison did make a very good point tho, if she is town she would be a very smart player to turbo as Mafia right now. But the only people who are turboing her are Me, Tutuu, Nutella, doom.

I'm town
Nutella's read seem really genuine
Tutuu's theories seem likely and even follow the kinda logic from Alison's Will and Testimate (Notices a wrong POE on d1, and milks it through calculated pushes through Btsc that are hard to pin back to any one play)
Doom is just chaotic af

This who situation reads super authentic.

I think we caught one y'all!!!

My vote is in spirit on her too, just i didn't vote because I didn't finish the Iso.

[tutuu]

Didnt read LOL!!!!!!!

[DaughterOfOmega]

I have nothing to do until my classes in 8 hours, but I don't feel like ISOing old posts