Nanook is a Bastard Town Win!

[Marmot]

it's a derpclear in the sense that if he thought it was 3 and were a wolf he would have acted on it, no?

What do you mean? What would he have done if it's 3?

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.

[speedchuck]

why not speed? you ask? well, I don't believe that speed would be the kind of person to fake derps. simple enough.

That's not really a derpclear, it's not like that information was available outside of that post.

Yeah, I don't read host posts.

You guys can safely ignore that.

[chardonnay]

I will look at viability of TSP x Marmot, and TSP speed chuck tomarrow night when i get off from work.

-/-/-/-

Ideally the consensus scum read of town should lead with their vote in Elo. Problem is im not sure who to pick for that yet. What do you guys think?

you clearly have a pick smh

Yeah I caught that too.

I was stuck between Speed/Tony, and i hadnt considered all marmot worlds

[chardonnay]

why not speed? you ask? well, I don't believe that speed would be the kind of person to fake derps. simple enough.

and you think i am the person to fake derp clears? I didnt realize it was 4 to flip either lol.

[chardonnay]

I will look at viability of TSP x Marmot, and TSP speed chuck tomarrow night when i get off from work.

-/-/-/-

Ideally the consensus scum read of town should lead with their vote in Elo. Problem is im not sure who to pick for that yet. What do you guys think?

I think all viable teams contain Tony tbh...

Marmot and speed are super unlikely, Long con I think motive wise I dont have to worry about b/c the only way he lives tomorrow is if he is bussing Tony. I dont think scum will gamble on bringing town!LC to F3 if Tony is their partner.

yes im assuming 2 scum. Its safer then assuming one scum this roster.

[chardonnay]

ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.

Where is LC Scum motivation in the plays he has been making lately tho?

[chardonnay]

Does anyone recall Martin/Marmot feeling anti-aligned on D2, just with the back and forth that was going on? Or was that just me?

can you elaborate on this?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I will look at viability of TSP x Marmot, and TSP speed chuck tomarrow night when i get off from work.

-/-/-/-

Ideally the consensus scum read of town should lead with their vote in Elo. Problem is im not sure who to pick for that yet. What do you guys think?

I think all viable teams contain Tony tbh...

Marmot and speed are super unlikely, Long con I think motive wise I dont have to worry about b/c the only way he lives tomorrow is if he is bussing Tony. I dont think scum will gamble on bringing town!LC to F3 if Tony is their partner.

yes im assuming 2 scum. Its safer then assuming one scum this roster.

we know you think this we were just talking about it

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.

Where is LC Scum motivation in the plays he has been making lately tho?

voting for me is scummy

[chardonnay]

You're going to have to show me why you're town, and why LC isnt.

[chardonnay]

I cant see into your mind and know you are town and LC isnt. Come on now.

[TonyStarkPrime]

well I'm pretty sure that any scum team remaining has you on it so I don't think it much matters what I say to you

[TonyStarkPrime]

I cant see into your mind and know you are town and LC isnt. Come on now.

but can't you?

[TonyStarkPrime]

char/speed is cancelled via double derp apparently

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't have to bother to consider speed/marmot because if it's speed/marmot would mean that the game is already essentially over

[chardonnay]

IM town ok. if you are town then team is between LC/Marmot/Speed

who is scum there?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Marmot is sorta a wildcard. Maybe it can be speed marmot

[TonyStarkPrime]

Esooa (3): TSP, made, Chuck
Marmot (3): Chardonnay, Mac, LC
TSP (2): martin, marmot
Chuck (1): esooa

@Esooa has died, and flips...town!

If you have night actions get them to me, d2 will start somewhere around 24 hours from now ish. Possibly sooner.

@chardonnay
@Long Con
@MacDougall
@Made
@Marmot
@MartinGG99
@speedchuck
@TonyStarkPrime

Posts caps for the night are these +40:

828482C5-EBDE-4CFF-9E8D-CDEEF5339688.jpeg

LC/Marmot probably doesn't work.

[chardonnay]

Marmot is sorta a wildcard. Maybe it can be speed marmot

How likely does Marmot distence a buddy the way he did near eod2?

Moving my vote back to [VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

I noticed there was two+ a couple hours left in the day when this vote was made.

I already had a vote there so this put speed to two votes vs made's three votes. Thats a risky maneuver for scum to make. Since a Speed scum flip would make made look clean, me look clean, and LC as well. So Marmot was really limiting long term option if he were scum with Speed.

I think i can rule them out as a team then.

[TonyStarkPrime]

@Marmot hammer me coward!!!

Let my blood drench the guilty and awaken fire in the eyes of the people

voteparking on a teammate and then doing this sorta quenches any sort of towncred you might get from that :P

[TonyStarkPrime]

there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"

[TonyStarkPrime]

@Marmot hammer me coward!!!

Let my blood drench the guilty and awaken fire in the eyes of the people

K

[VOTE: Made] aubergine

meant to quote this one

[chardonnay]

Man the baddies are really coming out of the woodwork to jump on lil old me.

You guys have grievances you wanna talk about? Those would be good.

it will be funny if this ends up being a "why is everybody ganging up on me" tale.

in f2f games sometimes scum's reaction to being unexpectedly bussed is to complain about how they are being ganged up on lol. Havent seen a reliable way of using it in forum mafia tho. Since everybody has time to react to things in a more calculated manner.

-/-/-/-

pre-edit

there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"

hmmm

[chardonnay]

I mean Marmot couldn't have counted on Made egging him on happening. For all he knew Made was going to start Ob!towning before/after then vote.

Nothing really stands out to me as it being Marmot and Speed together this game.

[VOTE: Tony] aubergine

if no hammer then I can mechanically rule out speedXmarmot, and confirm scum within TonyXLC. IF hammer then GG, and apologies for the missplay.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I mean Marmot couldn't have counted on Made egging him on happening. For all he knew Made was going to start Ob!towning before/after then vote.

Nothing really stands out to me as it being Marmot and Speed together this game.

[VOTE: Tony] aubergine

if no hammer then I can mechanically rule out speedXmarmot, and confirm scum within TonyXLC. IF hammer then GG, and apologies for the missplay.

Finally

[TonyStarkPrime]

Anyways this is why I don’t need to worry about Speed/Marmot

[TonyStarkPrime]

LC should think about it if he’s still around

[Marmot]

there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"

It was under an hour left and nobody else was budging, so what?

I also already mentioned it was part of my role flavor which is why I hammered.

[Marmot]

it's a derpclear in the sense that if he thought it was 3 and were a wolf he would have acted on it, no?

What do you mean? What would he have done if it's 3?

Answer my question @TonyStarkPrime.

[Marmot]

@speedchuck you haven't voted yet, do you have any reads you want to share?

[TonyStarkPrime]

it's a derpclear in the sense that if he thought it was 3 and were a wolf he would have acted on it, no?

What do you mean? What would he have done if it's 3?

Answer my question @TonyStarkPrime.

I did

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok so discounting LC/speed, if Speed is a wolf him and his partner both try to vote for me and win the game. didn't adequately consider lc/speed.

[TonyStarkPrime]

there's barely even any justification for it. it's just "I think the poe is tsp/speed but I'll vote for Made too"

It was under an hour left and nobody else was budging, so what?

I also already mentioned it was part of my role flavor which is why I hammered.

Forgive me for finding the latter part a weak defense.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm slightly resigned at this point but I think it would be a good idea if we didn't chop me

[TonyStarkPrime]

Well to half of you

[Long Con]

So! How is Tony still alive?

If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.

So he can't be town.

Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.

I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.

Let's finish this attention-starved game.

[Long Con]

Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

[speedchuck]

So! How is Tony still alive?

If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.

So he can't be town.

Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.

I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.

Let's finish this attention-starved game.

He could be town if the mafia are already voting for him. Honestly, with hammer at 4, that entire tell is useless. Imagine, the only time that the tell says anything is if:

Case - three town, two mafia.

two town vote for the other townie. Mafia can hammer with two more votes. This is the only way a double trouble surprise hammer can happen.

So how is tony still alive? Well, either tony is mafia, or LC is mafia, or Char is mafia. This literally only rules out speed/marmot, and even then only if we were both online at the same time to hammer.

Let's just ignore this technique methinks.

[Marmot]

So! How is Tony still alive?

If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.

So he can't be town.

Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.

I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.

Let's finish this attention-starved game.

I think the only argument that he's not town is that it's not me and speedchuck. Technically you and/or chard could be wolves

[speedchuck]

Oh, hey, me and marmot are online at the same time.

So that's helpful I guess.

[speedchuck]

Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.

[Marmot]

speedchuck and I are not partners

[Marmot]

I do think it's speedchuck and TSP. I think speedchuck has higher potential which is why I haven't parked a vote on TSP yet.

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

(I am willing to switch to TSP right now and end this day but I want to weigh this option)

[Marmot]

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

(I am willing to switch to TSP right now and end this day but I want to weigh this option)

I'll entertain this notion, who's Long Con's partner in this case?

[speedchuck]

I will get to that when I finish my long con case post

[Long Con]

So! How is Tony still alive?

If he were town, he would be dead, game over, wolf win. Right? There's no reason to prolong anything this long.

So he can't be town.

Is Chardonnay his partner? Yes. Chardonnay is trying to do some damage control by being the next vote on Tony. Speedchuck and Marmot are unsure about things, thus they have not voted. Chardonnay knows that Tony's likely going down, and wants to look good about it.

I don't see any reason for the wolves to mess around when they could just win.

Let's finish this attention-starved game.

He could be town if the mafia are already voting for him. Honestly, with hammer at 4, that entire tell is useless. Imagine, the only time that the tell says anything is if:

Case - three town, two mafia.

two town vote for the other townie. Mafia can hammer with two more votes. This is the only way a double trouble surprise hammer can happen.

So how is tony still alive? Well, either tony is mafia, or LC is mafia, or Char is mafia. This literally only rules out speed/marmot, and even then only if we were both online at the same time to hammer.

Let's just ignore this technique methinks.

Shit, I forgot hammer is 4, not 3. My bad.

[speedchuck]

I was under the impression that Martian response's impacted you badly, because in part, he was AtEing. Tho it was Martin who specify mentioned that he was AtEing out of frustration. Maybe you didn't perceive it that way at all.

Sorry, if i keep making incorrect assumptions about how you play. Thats a bad habit of mine w/ regaruds to players i have minor to moderate exp with.

How do you feel about Made's vote on Martin when he thought it was EoD now? I also thought it was curious, but wasnt sure if there was info there to break down.

It's a little sketchy. Maybe Martin is town and Made is not. He agreed with me maybe too easily on Martin, especially when I think most other players disagree with my points on him.

I'm going to diverge and disagree with Martin's final take. I think the LC push on Martin was NotGood^tm. It started from Martin causing a tie to happen on D1. LC called that scummy because it was bad for town. 'Town has no motivation to do that,' he said. I posited (and still do) that MAFIA has no reason to do that either! It was a derp play, or a forgetful moment, or whatever, which we now know.
LC hammered on this only a little, Martin got defensive and sarcastic, started playing to meta and post count and other such things. Things that can feel like overdefensiveness, but I swear to the mafia gods we should be past lynching people for overdefensiveness. LC said it made him suspect Martin more.
And then he dropped it, and Martin said it felt genuine, and we all promptly forgot about it.

I don't get why it was dropped, I think LC's push felt like snapping up an easy lynchbait from the poorly-placed vote, and LC's dropping it (when no one else really picked it up) was... not that great? Maybe not directly scummy, but I thought it ingenuine.

The above post is just bewhilderingly bold, if LC is scum. "Nobody believes in my ingenuine case except you? You must be scum!" *lynches town Made*

I'd say the one town member out of Tony, chard, and chuck needs to make themselves known in a real way somehow.

It's not Martin or Marmot because I came to suspect them on my own and I'm just probably wrong. I think I might be able to start using my wrongness as a positive solving tool.

The above post sort of takes all credibility and thus, responsibility, away from LC. It doesn't *look* like a bad post, but the end effect (subtly intended effect?) is that we can drop all of the above and not worry so much about LC's cases one way or another.

Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

I don't like the 'understanding' take here. "Wait, I wasn't thinking about the way you might see it, since of course, you can't know how town I am. You HAVE to think that. I get you." It just feels manipulative, on a base level, but also like it's trying really hard not to give off that feeling.

That's all I got. In the grand scheme of things, not much, but I'd like to hear thoughts if anyone has time in the next three hours.

[Long Con]

Wait, I could be wolf in your eyes.

And then Chardonnay would have to be my partner, and we're trying to push just one innocent villager into the Tony vote... just waiting, salivating for the almost-victory.

I get that you (chuck and Marmot) have to think that.

I am willing to switch to chardonnay then, if you like. He's bad in both the scenarios I described (Chard-Tony and Chard-LC baddie teams).

This makes sense to me, please dissect it and I'm all ears.

Either you've completely lost yourself to your theorizing or you're pretending to and this is a gross false binary.

No, I was just operating on a false assumption of hammer 3.