[END] Fight Club Mafia

[Canucklehead]

How odd. I know exactly why/how I won my fight.
Don't know why Elochin died, but I do know why I won....curious that that is not a universal experience. :hmmm:

[Sorsha]

That is curious

[Mister Rearranger]

Basically, I had a theory. And now I'm not entirely sure if it's true or not. So I'm looking to see if others feel there might be a point to it or not.

And like I said, at some point today, I am going to do a re-read on unfurl to see if I can get anything else out of it. If I don't find anything else, I'll probably drop my theory. Because it's already fairly flimsy as it is.

I think participating in the fight does have something to do with it, but there is something else too. MP has said it's not random who wins and who loses so something is happening btsc to determine winners.

What? I think a few people who have fought can infer what they want about what MP said, but starting conspiracy theories about Tyler and his sugarhill gang* having a say in things isn't going to help much. It leads us down a winding road of looking way too much into who the winners of previous fights were and distracts from in-thread behavioral study. Then again, everybody susses out baddies in their own way, and I'm certainly no pro at it.

*Note to Tyler: If you are in charge of who wins and loses, I hope you appreciate the tasty, succulent jam that is "Rapper's Delight" and plz don't hurt me.


linki: I'm not surprised, tbh. I didn't think there would be blanket win-conditions for all fights on all days.

[Sorsha]

So we aren't supposed to discuss theories? Sorry... My bad I guess.

[Mister Rearranger]

So we aren't supposed to discuss theories? Sorry... My bad I guess.

No, just making my opinion known. We can discuss my opinion that focusing too much on a conspiracy theory is a bad idea, if you'd like?

My "what?" was me questioning whether MP's response to your query was what prompted you to believe that the fights were (partially or not) determined via somebody's BTSC group.

[Sorsha]

No, that wasn't what made me think that. Somewhere in one of the threads someone asked how the winners were decided/if it was random and iirc correctly MP said it was not random.

So if its not random than something has to be deciding the outcome. It isn't apparent in the thread what it deciding it so...... it must be something btsc.

[Mister Rearranger]

No, that wasn't what made me think that. Somewhere in one of the threads someone asked how the winners were decided/if it was random and iirc correctly MP said it was not random.

So if its not random than something has to be deciding the outcome. It isn't apparent in the thread what it deciding it so...... it must be something btsc.

Perhaps you were in a similar boat as Unfurl then, who said she's unsure of how she won?

I'm quite sure of why I lost my first fight. And I know it wasn't random. You don't think MP was referring to that when he said it wasn't random?

[Sorsha]

Oh you mean like he was talking about your fight specifically not being random?

[Mister Rearranger]

Oh you mean like he was talking about your fight specifically not being random?

Or whatever fight was being referenced when he was asked. To be clear you are not certain why you won your fight? Do you have reason to think you should have lost?

[juliets]

Wait what? Some people know how they won or how they lost. Other players do not know how they won or lost. It seems to me MP would want to make it a universal experience, unless someone not getting a pm accounts for them not knowing. I'm just having a hard time believing that some know and some don't. Have I misread what people are talking about?

[timmer]

How odd. I know exactly why/how I won my fight.
Don't know why Elochin died, but I do know why I won....curious that that is not a universal experience. :hmmm:

Hmm. This is weird to ask, because I'm asking you to go back and reference your PMs from Alex etc. but are you SURE that you know why you won? Is it possible that you had something to do better than Elohcin, and that doing so would "help you win"? I know its weird to ask about PMs, but I think you should double-check this. Do you know that you accomplished something that would "help you win", or do you actually know exactly why you won? As someone who has fought twice, I think it should be the former, but if it is the latter, than you had a very different type of fight than either of mine, and I'm confused.

[Sorsha]

Oh you mean like he was talking about your fight specifically not being random?

Or whatever fight was being referenced when he was asked. To be clear you are not certain why you won your fight? Do you have reason to think you should have lost?

From what I remember someone just asked "how are fights determined? is it random?" and MP answered that its not random. I'll have to go and find the situation and see.

I do not know why I won my fight. As far as the "being active" bullz and I were both pretty active in the thread before/during our fight. Its not like either of us was a no show/on poster and we were both volunteering.

[Mister Rearranger]

From what I remember someone just asked "how are fights determined? is it random?" and MP answered that its not random. I'll have to go and find the situation and see.

I do not know why I won my fight. As far as the "being active" bullz and I were both pretty active in the thread before/during our fight. Its not like either of us was a no show/on poster and we were both volunteering.

Was the bolded directed at me? Because the post of mine you quoted didn't mention anything about "being active". Or was that for juliets's thing about possibly missing a PM?

[S~V~S]

My PM told me how my fight would be decided in advance; the PM I got laying out how the fight would proceed. I just looked at it to see if there were any prohibitions on talking about it, after checking the rules post for same. I have not seen any. I don't think MP would love it, though. I have not heard back from him, but since all I was going to say was already said by other people, i won't worry about it.

Maybe different fights have different kinds of rules? Based on the subjective/objective nature of the fight? I do know that I was specifically told in my PM not to discuss the nature of my fight.

[timmer]

Hmm, interesting.

[Russtifinko]

Yay, no death!

Well, time to get posting! My thesis is in and I've graduated, so hopefully I'll have more time now. We'll see, I guess.

Anyway, this might sound crazy, but I hope the baddies do have BTSC. If not, lynching each and every one of them will more or less be blind luck, unless their relationships are somehow revealed.

As to how fights are determined, I thought our power level thingies were supposed to play a role? I know that's not the only determining factor, and without revealing too much, I believe based on my fight that it's not entirely random (other fighters will be able to corroborate this, I hope?).

And yay, MR's back!

[Mister Rearranger]

^Glad to see you again as well, Russ!

See, I'm just of the opposite perspective. Eliminating BTSC between a baddie team essentially makes them all SKs for the purposes of in-thread behavior. Personally, I tend to have a better track record with suspecting solo baddies; however, I can never convince enough other players to believe me lol

I like SVS's notion of a baddie leader that simply PMs anonymous instructions to his cronies, regardless of if it's true or not. Just sounds like it'd be a cool role and make for an entertaining game.

[Hedgeowl]

So now the chaos is over I'm back for the night. This is what I meant with my vote: Llama seems very sure of how Tyler is recruiting, which really makes me wonder. Also the point he makes in the post below is very odd to me.

Quiet people are quiet, it always happend, but if we go lynching quiet people rather then suspects, we are really handing the game to Tyler

That's nonsense, because the police are an effective method for dealing with "suspects", which means Tyler will concentrate on recruiting "non-suspect" or, in other words, quiet people.

He seems to essentially be saying to give any suspicious people a pass and instead just lynch the quiet players, whom I highly doubt are going to be recruited. If I was Tyler I wouldn't recruit a very quiet person and if I were very quiet in this game I would expect not to be recruited. He highly overrates the ability of the police, acting as if they're sure to kill a baddie every night for us when they haven't actually got anyone since DH and there were theories that the police were compromised after INH's death.

I found this interesting as well considering we do know that DH was a recruit and he was one of the most vocal players. Plus the police can check someone before they were recruited, so it's not foolproof.

Has Juliets given an opinion on you? As someone who was spectacularly fooled by a recruited Bullz, I would like her take on it, and don't recall having seen it. I have to go and look. But having recruited you in the past, I don't think I am seeing bad Bullz.

She did after this post, but I'd like to comment that Lost was a totally different circumstance. I didn't really fool OA or JC, I proved to them irrefutably that I was a civ and was only able to do that because I had been one. They had no reason to think I wasn't anymore, or that I had never been while in btsc with them.

Hmmmm...I actually feel like I have a lot to digest from these results. But I have to run out to my now-former store and then Sockalex and I are hanging out for a bit.

I do know I want to re-read unfurl and Canucklehead now. I have a nagging feeling right now about people who fight and manage to kill their opponent. But I want to see if my theory holds any water first.

I'd be interested to hear more about this theory, as I have one of my own that I don't really feel like I should share just yet.

I'm offering my vote tonight out to the first person to ask for it that hasn't yet won a fight.

I will keep reading and see if more on the killing theory comes to light. My original thought was due to fighting level or ability, but that apparently wasnt the case with unfurl/DP 1.0.

[Hedgeowl]

And yes, I'd like to see what would happen if the two players who have killed people would do to one another if they fought. Hopefully we would learn something because this game is going to shit quick for the townies.

.....orrrrrrr you want to see us fight because you're scared of the strength we've gained? Worried that you or your boss won't be able to beat us if/when he has to fight one of us? Trying to turn civvies against the two people who are probably their most capable protectors in the event of a Tyler fight?

......orrrrrrrr I think one, if not both of you, us bad.

I think Tyler would be smart to have chosen either of you as a recruit.

Welp, since I have only just recently proved my machismo and prowess (though I knew I had it in my soul deep down all along ), I'm guessing you think unfurl is the baddie here? I can only assume that's what your implying, since if you're suggesting that Tyler is recruiting strong fighters than Tyler would surely not have recruited me when the only thing I'd done all game was to LOSE a fight to the Great Spaghetti Monster or some such equally non-pugilisitcally-named character. Whether he tries to recruit me now that I've won and proven myself to be a badass motherfucker, I obviously have no control over. But your suspicion of me by the logic presented above (if that is what you are implying) is not so convincing.

Fwiw, I absolutely do not think unfurl is a baddie, and while I am totally willing to fight again, I do not think having me (an unrecruited civ) fight her (who I believe is also an unrecruited civ) and possibly kill one of us (thus losing our AWESOME STRENGTH AND MAJESTY from the civ team) is really a good idea.

I'll fight you, though, if you want.

I think Tyler May have recruited you early after you joined the game, if FH wasn't on his team already. DH was over joyed to have you join the game so I think if Tyler listened to any of his recruits about who should be chosen that you'd be a good pick. But I had forgotten that you had lost a fight (as FH) so that does give me a bit of pause there.

I'm undecided about how I think Tyler picks his recruits. I don't know if it has to do with their winning/ losing record or if he has to be in the same location or not. Early on I thought that it was between winners of fights but I'm not really basing my suspicions on theories, more on who I think would be a good recruit.

And I don't care.... I'll fight again. You or whoever else.

Early on I thought this as well about Tyler recruits coming from fight winners. Someone made the point that the would be such a narrow group and once we found one, we'd find all the rest as well. I think it's too small a group, but maybe not in a game this big, with 4 different fight clubs going on at once before. Recruiting close friends would be a risky move as well I'd think, because they'd be connected to someone instantly if another teammate was caught. Aces died in the no-vote massacre, but hadnt been recruited, which I'd think was smart since DH had been.

[Sorsha]

From what I remember someone just asked "how are fights determined? is it random?" and MP answered that its not random. I'll have to go and find the situation and see.

I do not know why I won my fight. As far as the "being active" bullz and I were both pretty active in the thread before/during our fight. Its not like either of us was a no show/on poster and we were both volunteering.

Was the bolded directed at me? Because the post of mine you quoted didn't mention anything about "being active". Or was that for juliets's thing about possibly missing a PM?

It was bwt's theory originally about players being active during their fight. I'm not sure if he meant in the thread or during their fight challenge.

[Hedgeowl]

The only way I could see it working for Mayhem without BTS would be if maybe Tyler knew who they were, and could send directions or something like in the movie. You never know who might have been in Project Mayhem in the movie, it could be the guy sitting next to you on the train. Only Tyler know who everyone was.

So this could be a plausible scenario~ but the whole point of Mafia is the uninformed majority against the informed minority. So based on similarity to the movie, it is possible, but only if Tyler can direct the recruits in some way.

I had just assumed like MR that they would share btsc like any mafia, but this is a really interesting idea. It would be one way to keep the power of a super team diminished, but really challenging to coordinate for Tyler I'd think. I remember in your AG game when Llama recruited me (was originally baddie) I asked you and Juliets questions about how we could win, because it sounded fishy what he said, and you kept telling me to ask Llama since he controlled the information in his indy group. This film very much fits that theme, so it would be interesting if it was something similar, but I cant see how you'd avoid lynching your own teammates that way though.

[Hedgeowl]

It's probably safest to just work under the assumption that the baddies share BTSC. They must have some form of unity... If it's blind then lynches don't tell us as much I guess.

lol. ^whs

This is why I usually keep reading till the end before posting, but often run out of time before I finish reading everything.

[birdwithteeth11]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I would almost imagine that the PM recruits have BTSC. But, I think that also lends credence that Tyler has a limited number of recruits.

All I can say about my fight, is that once it started, MP told me that the winner would be judged by a third party to determine who the "winner" was. So I have a good idea of how I won. And based on the varied responses, it definitely sounds like each fight is a different challenge.

[birdwithteeth11]

Also, I did a complete re-read of unfurl, and am dropping my theory from before. I saw literally nothing in any of her posts that would have made me more suspicious of her. I would encourage someone else to read it if they felt they agreed with my theory, but I personally don't think it's worth that much.

[bea]

No, that wasn't what made me think that. Somewhere in one of the threads someone asked how the winners were decided/if it was random and iirc correctly MP said it was not random.

So if its not random than something has to be deciding the outcome. It isn't apparent in the thread what it deciding it so...... it must be something btsc.

Perhaps you were in a similar boat as Unfurl then, who said she's unsure of how she won?

I'm quite sure of why I lost my first fight. And I know it wasn't random. You don't think MP was referring to that when he said it wasn't random?

This. Though really MR - I didn't expect the outcome to be as serious as it was.

[bea]

Ok - so I'm going to try to sum this up as best I can.

Most of us have been in a fight. For those of us who have been in a fight more than one factor determines who the winner is. Obviously everyone has a fight level that has gone up or gone down or not moved at all. There may or may not be something you can do to help your chances. Some people seem to be consious of what that is, others, not so much. Yes?

Sorsha's theory seems to be that there could also be a third factor like a vote from Tyler and co or the cops. Do I understand this correctly?

Teefies - I can see where you would come up with your idea initially and while I have no read on cunuck, I've felt pretty good about unfurl so yea. I'm not surprised to see you drop it.

[thellama73]

Hey guys, just got back from my trip (Mongoose says hi) and I will try to catch up tomorrow. Tired now.

One thing I iwll say now is that I do not like the way the Dom lynch went down, and I will be looking into several people because of it. Good night!

[Long Con]

Ok, here is Long Con's Grand Unified Theory Of How Fighting Works. From what I've read, a lot of people know some things about fighting, so I thought over what I know about it, and here's my theory. There are several elements that seem to affect fights. I hope I'm allowed to talk about them all, but from what I have seen, the 'possibly secret' parts have already been pretty well discussed.

1. Fighting Level - we all (I assume) started with a fighting level. I further assume that most of us started at level 1, and that winning increases your level. People who have won can confirm or deny that, if they're allowed. I also assume that a higher fighting level means you're a better fighter. A level 1 fighter CAN beat a level 2 fighter, I had that host confirmed.

2. Individual Challenge - fighters each get to have a personal challenge against their opponent, which, when judged to win by an independent party, assists them in their fight.

3. The Unknown Factor - some base decision-making thing that is somewhat random, or, even better, players earn without knowing it. I already gave my opinion of what I thought would make sense: the amount a person posts during their fight.

4. Ummm.. I was thinking it over in the car, and I thought I had four factors, but I can't remember what the other factor might have been. Maybe there was only three.

So, it's something like this: (# of posts during the fight + winner of fight-challenge gets ten points) x fighting level = your fight outcome. The player with the higher outcome wins the fight. The greater the difference between the outcomes, the greater the injury to the loser. Too great a difference, and they die.

And that's my theory.

[Boomslang]

Long Con has the right idea, methinks. I had assumed that special roles would start with a higher fighting level, making them more likely to survive the nights, and that might give insight in the future.

Unfortunately, I'll be unable to pay much attention to the thread for the next week due to personal circumstances; I'll be sure to vote and check in, but I doubt I'll be of much contribution.

[Long Con]

And I'd like to add, that if the part about posting mattering is right, that's a great way to reward players for participation. I love the idea.

[bea]

LC, that makes a ton of sense what I understood of it. I think I got the basics, but when things turned into a math formula I kinda went numb in the brainz.

Now that DH has been killed by the police and Project Mayham killed INH - I notice - they are not consecutive night killings. I wonder if something has to be achieved to earn a kill? Or if there's some way kills have been blocked on the nights where there is no kill? Or a limit on kills? Dunno...just seems odd to me.

So many things to work out. *aspody head*

[Black Rock]

Not fully caught up, I still need to do my back read but have read the newest stuff. I won my fight, I understand what went on a bit. I had a little bit of a hand in it. People who have fought would understand. I do not know why I won. I don't know how these get judged and what made me better, so I do know why another winner might say they don't know why they won and why the fight went how it did. There seems to be many factors surrounding a win and how the loser gets punished. I agree that LC might be on to something here. I also understand why another winner might not know why exactly they won and how the final outcome might have been reached. I think I asked Unfurl myself, in hopes that she got a better understanding than I did. Information in this game seems hard to get.

I really hope I was getting what I read right. I do need to do a lot more reading to make sure I know what the hell is going on. It looks like I need to check out the last lynch as well. I'm not sure how Dom got lynched, I don't remember him much at all.

[juliets]

Thats so funny you say that BR because I was just sitting here thinking "now how did Dom get lynched?" I too need to go back into that last lynch - I had to skim some parts and I think I must have missed the factor that made him suspicious, or it just didn't really stick with me.

On the fighting theories, I really like LC's. There's some player contribution and some randomness which to me helps explain why some people seem to know why the won or lost and others don't know, and then others say they know part of the reason or are not really sure if they know the reason. This doesn't seem to be one of those instances where someone is fudging the truth because there are too many people with conflicting thoughts about seemingly the same event.

With that said, I haven't yet fully assimilated the theory and can't decide how it's going to help us find Tyler. Maybe it just helps us rule out other theories like that maybe Canuck and unfurl are bad because they killed people. That's a theory i can't buy into because it would too easily point out who was bad and I don't think MP would choose to shine the spotlight on the baddies.

So good work LC, if you're theory is not true it at least sounds plausible and I'm buying it for the moment.

[Black Rock]

This game is blowing my mind. I just looked at the last days poll and the votes are so spread out. On a normal game, by this point, that would be insane. I now am getting a little piece of my own medicine (re. recruitment games) where there is so much ever changing dynamics, roles, and non-information. I apologize to anyone who has played my games, to be fair this game has stepped those up though. I now will actually read that day. I really wish that I could have been around so I could have felt it as it was happening. That is always much more helpful.

[bea]

So, I've thought, for a very long time that the fights aren't going to have the same requirements across the board. This would explain why some of us seem to understand how we could have won/loss and others of us don't. This scene keeps playing over in my head tonight:



I can see a scenario where the requirements of each fight can change, while we wouldn't know from night to night what those standards are or who's deciding what those standards are.

Have I jumped too far down the rabbit hole yet?

[Bullzeye]

I can't find the answer but I'm wondering if the policemen and or Tyler & his recruits have some sort of a say in who wins/loses the fight. Like maybe there is a btsc vote? I know from fighting that there is/was something that each fighter could do to help their own chances but I don't think that is the only deciding factor. MP has said that it isn't random.

I doubt that any player gets a say, they'd be too biased and it wouldn't be fair. Tyler is always gonna pick a recruit to win (if one fights) and the police would always pick one of their own (again, if one was in a fight, otherwise they'd probably just pick the one they trusted most which isn't exactly foolproof).

The only way I could see it working for Mayhem without BTS would be if maybe Tyler knew who they were, and could send directions or something like in the movie. You never know who might have been in Project Mayhem in the movie, it could be the guy sitting next to you on the train. Only Tyler know who everyone was.

So this could be a plausible scenario~ but the whole point of Mafia is the uninformed majority against the informed minority. So based on similarity to the movie, it is possible, but only if Tyler can direct the recruits in some way.

If the baddies don't have btsc though I don't see how they're supposed to work together or even know who each other are... Unless Tyler has a way of contacting everyone and informing them of who is cool and what the plan is. Recruits in this scenario don't really get to have a say in their team's direction. Also if they don't have btsc then I don't want to get recruited now.

From what I remember someone just asked "how are fights determined? is it random?" and MP answered that its not random. I'll have to go and find the situation and see.

I do not know why I won my fight. As far as the "being active" bullz and I were both pretty active in the thread before/during our fight. Its not like either of us was a no show/on poster and we were both volunteering.

Are you sure you don't know? I'd been working on the assumption that I knew exactly why you beat me.

[thellama73]

What I don't understand is why people were following my (basically random) vote for Dom. Given the fact that he flipped unrecruited civ, I think it looks bad. Furthermore, no one even gave a reason for following me.

I should vote now, could be my last chance. Not too sure about who's guilty here, so I vote Dom, because I think I owe him one.

That makes no sense.

As far as I can tell, Boogs gave no rationale for his vote at all.

Can you two explain your votes? Because I think they both look pretty shady.

[thellama73]

Going back to address suspicions against me now.

2)Llama, for:

Quiet people are quiet, it always happend, but if we go lynching quiet people rather then suspects, we are really handing the game to Tyler

That's nonsense, because the police are an effective method for dealing with "suspects", which means Tyler will concentrate on recruiting "non-suspect" or, in other words, quiet people.

Okay, here's the thing (are you ready to hear the thing? Cause here it is): The police can search someone every night to see if they are bad and kill them if they are, right? There have been no police kills lately, so I am going to assume they have been failing at this job. Who would the police likely search? Presumably the people they find suspicios in the thread, the same people they re voting to lynch. This leads me to conlcude that someone who has taken a lot of votes (like Bullz, for example) is almoost certainly innocent (until Tyler reads this and immediately recruits Bullz.)

...because to me, those sound like the suppositions of somebody who is either Tyler or part of his inner circle. What makes you think Tyler is going to focus on recruiting "non-suspects" anyway?

Because I'm assuming Tyler is not an idiot.

If Tyler recruits someone who is getting a lot of attention, the police will check that person and kill them. No more recruit. Think it through, BWT.

[thellama73]

Something just came up, a boat ride, can't say no, it's a beautiful day. I have to vote now. I am going to vote Llama; I did not love his "Trust the Police" rhetoric, and then his wide eyed "Oh I never thought of that" reply just pinged me more.

I think the idea thta the police may be compromised is a good one, Tyler can only recruit once a night. It would have taken a long time for him to get a majority of them on his team. In the mean time, he would have been recruiting people who are not getting a lot of suspicion or else the police would have been killing them.

[thellama73]

I did not like thellama call what I was saying nonsense, it actually got it my nerves

Yeah, I get that a lot.

[thellama73]

I will also vote for Keterman and MR R. tonight.

llama, you quoted me here with no comment. Is there something you meant to say or was this just a mistake?

I was on my phone with bad internet and needed to vote. Since I don't like to vote without posting, I just quoted you to show I was voting the same way, since it was easier than trying to type. I am back to a real computer now though.

[thellama73]

I am surprised Llama has not addressed the votes for him as of yet.

I'm trying!

[thellama73]

I'm going to lay out my rationale for voting for less suspicious players (not "quiet players," as I have been misrepresented as saying) one more time, since no one seems able to grasp it.

Imagine you're Tyler. It's Night 1. You have a pool of 29 players to choose from to recruit. You also know that each night the police can check one player and if they learn he is a recruit, can kill him.

Player X is shouting and being unreasonable and everyone thinks he might be bad. Player Y is being helpful and friendly and everyone trusts him. Which one do think the police are more likely to check with the hope of killing a recruit? I would say, and I imagine Tyler would say, Player X.

It would therefore be suicide to recruit Player X, who would have a high probability of immediately dying when checked by the police. It would be smarter to recruit Player Y.

Repeat for Night 2, Night 3, Etc.

Now, to address SVS' point, suppose that Tyler inadvertently gets a policeman on one of the early nights. He then gains the advantage of their BTSC and will certainly start trying to recruit other policemen. The police are unlikely to search each other early in the game, so he is pretty safe, but it would still be wiser to recruit policemen who are not likely to get lynched soon before moving on to the others. If Tyler recruits a poiliceman and he is lynched the next day, we will all learn that the police have been compromised, and the police will start checking each other as suspects, undermining Tyler's double-agent strategy. It is better to maintain the subterfuge as long as possible, by starting with the police least likely to get themselves lynched, i.e. nice, helpful, unsuspicious ones.

Why am I the only one who sees that this makes sense?

[birdwithteeth11]

I'm going to lay out my rationale for voting for less suspicious players (not "quiet players," as I have been misrepresented as saying) one more time, since no one seems able to grasp it.

Imagine you're Tyler. It's Night 1. You have a pool of 29 players to choose from to recruit. You also know that each night the police can check one player and if they learn he is a recruit, can kill him.

Player X is shouting and being unreasonable and everyone thinks he might be bad. Player Y is being helpful and friendly and everyone trusts him. Which one do think the police are more likely to check with the hope of killing a recruit? I would say, and I imagine Tyler would say, Player X.

It would therefore be suicide to recruit Player X, who would have a high probability of immediately dying when checked by the police. It would be smarter to recruit Player Y.

Repeat for Night 2, Night 3, Etc.

Now, to address SVS' point, suppose that Tyler inadvertently gets a policeman on one of the early nights. He then gains the advantage of their BTSC and will certainly start trying to recruit other policemen. The police are unlikely to search each other early in the game, so he is pretty safe, but it would still be wiser to recruit policemen who are not likely to get lynched soon before moving on to the others. If Tyler recruits a poiliceman and he is lynched the next day, we will all learn that the police have been compromised, and the police will start checking each other as suspects, undermining Tyler's double-agent strategy. It is better to maintain the subterfuge as long as possible, by starting with the police least likely to get themselves lynched, i.e. nice, helpful, unsuspicious ones.

Why am I the only one who sees that this makes sense?

At the time of when I quoted you on the "non-suspects" post, I wasn't thinking of it in this way. But when you explain it out all the way, your theory makes a lot more sense. Basically, it sounds like we need to go after people who are flying low under the radar and/or appear trustworthy.

If that's the case, it might be worth it for me to take another look at unfurl. And I'm probably going with this strategy. I feel like I'm starting to run in circles in this game. And I could use looking at people from a fresh perspective.

[thellama73]

I'm going to lay out my rationale for voting for less suspicious players (not "quiet players," as I have been misrepresented as saying) one more time, since no one seems able to grasp it.

Imagine you're Tyler. It's Night 1. You have a pool of 29 players to choose from to recruit. You also know that each night the police can check one player and if they learn he is a recruit, can kill him.

Player X is shouting and being unreasonable and everyone thinks he might be bad. Player Y is being helpful and friendly and everyone trusts him. Which one do think the police are more likely to check with the hope of killing a recruit? I would say, and I imagine Tyler would say, Player X.

It would therefore be suicide to recruit Player X, who would have a high probability of immediately dying when checked by the police. It would be smarter to recruit Player Y.

Repeat for Night 2, Night 3, Etc.

Now, to address SVS' point, suppose that Tyler inadvertently gets a policeman on one of the early nights. He then gains the advantage of their BTSC and will certainly start trying to recruit other policemen. The police are unlikely to search each other early in the game, so he is pretty safe, but it would still be wiser to recruit policemen who are not likely to get lynched soon before moving on to the others. If Tyler recruits a poiliceman and he is lynched the next day, we will all learn that the police have been compromised, and the police will start checking each other as suspects, undermining Tyler's double-agent strategy. It is better to maintain the subterfuge as long as possible, by starting with the police least likely to get themselves lynched, i.e. nice, helpful, unsuspicious ones.

Why am I the only one who sees that this makes sense?

At the time of when I quoted you on the "non-suspects" post, I wasn't thinking of it in this way. But when you explain it out all the way, your theory makes a lot more sense. Basically, it sounds like we need to go after people who are flying low under the radar and/or appear trustworthy.

If that's the case, it might be worth it for me to take another look at unfurl. And I'm probably going with this strategy. I feel like I'm starting to run in circles in this game. And I could use looking at people from a fresh perspective.

Timmer would have been a particularly inspired candidate for recruitment, as well.

[birdwithteeth11]

I'm going to lay out my rationale for voting for less suspicious players (not "quiet players," as I have been misrepresented as saying) one more time, since no one seems able to grasp it.

Imagine you're Tyler. It's Night 1. You have a pool of 29 players to choose from to recruit. You also know that each night the police can check one player and if they learn he is a recruit, can kill him.

Player X is shouting and being unreasonable and everyone thinks he might be bad. Player Y is being helpful and friendly and everyone trusts him. Which one do think the police are more likely to check with the hope of killing a recruit? I would say, and I imagine Tyler would say, Player X.

It would therefore be suicide to recruit Player X, who would have a high probability of immediately dying when checked by the police. It would be smarter to recruit Player Y.

Repeat for Night 2, Night 3, Etc.

Now, to address SVS' point, suppose that Tyler inadvertently gets a policeman on one of the early nights. He then gains the advantage of their BTSC and will certainly start trying to recruit other policemen. The police are unlikely to search each other early in the game, so he is pretty safe, but it would still be wiser to recruit policemen who are not likely to get lynched soon before moving on to the others. If Tyler recruits a poiliceman and he is lynched the next day, we will all learn that the police have been compromised, and the police will start checking each other as suspects, undermining Tyler's double-agent strategy. It is better to maintain the subterfuge as long as possible, by starting with the police least likely to get themselves lynched, i.e. nice, helpful, unsuspicious ones.

Why am I the only one who sees that this makes sense?

At the time of when I quoted you on the "non-suspects" post, I wasn't thinking of it in this way. But when you explain it out all the way, your theory makes a lot more sense. Basically, it sounds like we need to go after people who are flying low under the radar and/or appear trustworthy.

If that's the case, it might be worth it for me to take another look at unfurl. And I'm probably going with this strategy. I feel like I'm starting to run in circles in this game. And I could use looking at people from a fresh perspective.

Timmer would have been a particularly inspired candidate for recruitment, as well.

I would agree. I might even throw in unfurl and Long Con, since I know they are 2 other people who have been fairly helpful and coming up with different theories. I'll have to re-examine all of them though.

[juliets]

I will also vote for Keterman and MR R. tonight.

llama, you quoted me here with no comment. Is there something you meant to say or was this just a mistake?

I was on my phone with bad internet and needed to vote. Since I don't like to vote without posting, I just quoted you to show I was voting the same way, since it was easier than trying to type. I am back to a real computer now though.

Yes, with LC's help I figured that out - that you had just used my statement to reflect your actions. No problem whatsoever, I should have figured that out on my own.

[Hedgeowl]

I'm going to lay out my rationale for voting for less suspicious players (not "quiet players," as I have been misrepresented as saying) one more time, since no one seems able to grasp it.

Imagine you're Tyler. It's Night 1. You have a pool of 29 players to choose from to recruit. You also know that each night the police can check one player and if they learn he is a recruit, can kill him.

Player X is shouting and being unreasonable and everyone thinks he might be bad. Player Y is being helpful and friendly and everyone trusts him. Which one do think the police are more likely to check with the hope of killing a recruit? I would say, and I imagine Tyler would say, Player X.

It would therefore be suicide to recruit Player X, who would have a high probability of immediately dying when checked by the police. It would be smarter to recruit Player Y.

Repeat for Night 2, Night 3, Etc.

Now, to address SVS' point, suppose that Tyler inadvertently gets a policeman on one of the early nights. He then gains the advantage of their BTSC and will certainly start trying to recruit other policemen. The police are unlikely to search each other early in the game, so he is pretty safe, but it would still be wiser to recruit policemen who are not likely to get lynched soon before moving on to the others. If Tyler recruits a poiliceman and he is lynched the next day, we will all learn that the police have been compromised, and the police will start checking each other as suspects, undermining Tyler's double-agent strategy. It is better to maintain the subterfuge as long as possible, by starting with the police least likely to get themselves lynched, i.e. nice, helpful, unsuspicious ones.

Why am I the only one who sees that this makes sense?

I would agree with a lot of what you say here, but you leave out that fact that DH we know was a recruit. He was the most vocal person in the game at the time along with you and drawing a lot of attention trying to form voting block alliances and become a powerful fighter. So whatever you might think is the best strategy i am not sure Tyler thinks the same. Plus the strategy can change anytime, like now that you have endorsed a specific recruitment method. There has been a lot of speculation about how Tyler recruits from fighters, winners, only in the early phase, etc. but here you say he recruits every night. Is this something you are assuming for the sake of your theory?

[thellama73]

I would agree with a lot of what you say here, but you leave out that fact that DH we know was a recruit. He was the most vocal person in the game at the time along with you and drawing a lot of attention trying to form voting block alliances and become a powerful fighter. So whatever you might think is the best strategy i am not sure Tyler thinks the same. Plus the strategy can change anytime, like now that you have endorsed a specific recruitment method. There has been a lot of speculation about how Tyler recruits from fighters, winners, only in the early phase, etc. but here you say he recruits every night. Is this something you are assuming for the sake of your theory?

I assume he recruits every night because I have never seen a recruiter role work differently, not for the sake of my theory.

Yes, I pointed out before that the strategy can and will change once we expose it, but it cannot change the people already recruited. It will take time for new recruits to follow the new pattern.

[Sorsha]

I can't find the answer but I'm wondering if the policemen and or Tyler & his recruits have some sort of a say in who wins/loses the fight. Like maybe there is a btsc vote? I know from fighting that there is/was something that each fighter could do to help their own chances but I don't think that is the only deciding factor. MP has said that it isn't random.

I doubt that any player gets a say, they'd be too biased and it wouldn't be fair. Tyler is always gonna pick a recruit to win (if one fights) and the police would always pick one of their own (again, if one was in a fight, otherwise they'd probably just pick the one they trusted most which isn't exactly foolproof).

The only way I could see it working for Mayhem without BTS would be if maybe Tyler knew who they were, and could send directions or something like in the movie. You never know who might have been in Project Mayhem in the movie, it could be the guy sitting next to you on the train. Only Tyler know who everyone was.

So this could be a plausible scenario~ but the whole point of Mafia is the uninformed majority against the informed minority. So based on similarity to the movie, it is possible, but only if Tyler can direct the recruits in some way.

If the baddies don't have btsc though I don't see how they're supposed to work together or even know who each other are... Unless Tyler has a way of contacting everyone and informing them of who is cool and what the plan is. Recruits in this scenario don't really get to have a say in their team's direction. Also if they don't have btsc then I don't want to get recruited now.

From what I remember someone just asked "how are fights determined? is it random?" and MP answered that its not random. I'll have to go and find the situation and see.

I do not know why I won my fight. As far as the "being active" bullz and I were both pretty active in the thread before/during our fight. Its not like either of us was a no show/on poster and we were both volunteering.

Are you sure you don't know? I'd been working on the assumption that I knew exactly why you beat me.

To the first reply to me: yes I know Tyler would always pick his recruit but that's if one was actually fighting. Imagine if this theory were true though.... At least we would be able to look at the voting for who fights and be able to learn something from it.

To the second reply to me: no I don't know why I won. I didn't think anyone knew for sure how they won. Those who think they do are interpreting messages differently though. My notification said I beat you. Not, I beat you because of......