[END] Fight Club Mafia

#1051

S~V~S wrote: And Llama, keep in mind that some civvies showed up to make their posting requirements too~ I totally understand Daisys reasons for being AWOL the three days she was gone. and I firmly believe rl trumps games. So I don;t think her showing up at the last minute, which would coincide with Alex being gone, says much about alignment. I skimmed her catch up posts, but did not read in depth. Beas weird vote makes me want to look for what she saw, as well. Bea has seemed pretty civ to me, but her unwillingness to vote for LC was odd for me.

Oh, I agree with most of that. I want to look at other people besides Daisy, and I understand how RL goes, but I think the fact that every person modkilled was a civilian speaks volumes about the kind of active, close-knit team the baddies have assembled.

Honestly, it feels a little unbalanced in favor of the baddies to slaughter all inactive players when Tyler gets to choose his entire team, since obviously he is not going to choose inactive players. But I understand the frustration of dealing with non-participants as a host too, so

#1052

As to Timmer's ideas about Bullz and Keterman...

Not sure about Bullz honestly. I'll have to think on that one. I think your idea about Keterman throwing himself under the bus is a possibility. Either it's that or he is an unrecruited policeman who was unaware of LC being recruited. However, given what happened with INH, I think it's far more likely that any police that are still alive are recruits to Tyler's cause.

Of course, I also wonder if there's any way to look back via Keterman's posts and see if we can't ferret out who Tyler could possibly be.

#1053

birdwithteeth11 wrote:As to Timmer's ideas about Bullz and Keterman...

Not sure about Bullz honestly. I'll have to think on that one. I think your idea about Keterman throwing himself under the bus is a possibility. Either it's that or he is an unrecruited policeman who was unaware of LC being recruited. However, given what happened with INH, I think it's far more likely that any police that are still alive are recruits to Tyler's cause.

Of course, I also wonder if there's any way to look back via Keterman's posts and see if we can't ferret out who Tyler could possibly be.

I almost feel like Keterman's defense of LC was too over the top to have come from a teammate. Why would a teammate make such bold outrageous claims when it was already obvious thta LC would be lynched and flip baddie? What would he have to gaiin by doing that? If it is the throwing himself under the bus strategy to draw attention away from Tyler, that must mean we were already close on Tyler's heels, right? But I can't think of anyone we were close to catching before LC< since we were all casting about in the dark.

#1054

But if either of the above scenarios is coorrect:
a) keterman is not Tyler's teammate.
b) Keterman is Tyler's teammate but is trying to draw attention away from Tyler.
Then I think that it would be better not to lynch Keterman this round and try to find Tyler himself.

#1055

Keterman lost the fight~ will he even be on the poll? MP said he had to sit out.

#1056

S~V~S wrote:Keterman lost the fight~ will he even be on the poll? MP said he had to sit out.

My understanding (I may be wrong) is that he can be voted for, but cannot vote.

#1057

I'd like to wait on Keterman since lynching someone who isnt able to defend is kind of shady. And I trust thellama so im going to drop my bullz thoughts for now. I tend to go off on tangents to the detriment of the cause.

#1058

Mongoose wrote:
timmer wrote:And incidentally I'd be willing to fight tonight if no one minds!
OMG your avatar is making me so sad. I think I've been as upset about her as most people are about RW. I actually sat down at the lake and cried yesterday. I like to think about her being reunited with Bogey, though.

#1059

Oh I agree, I won't vote for someone who can't talk.

Linki~ I know, Lauren Bacalls death got somewhat lost in the Robin Williams suicide. She was an amazing class act, and a role model, telling us that strong women could be sexy; she was a sex symbol for women, not just for men. She was a real icon.

#1060

I WIN YOU LOOSE!

#1061

Do we want to talk about who wants to fight and who out of those we want to vote for? I would prefer to vote for anyone who lost a fight the first time and wants to fight during this next day. Or if there is anyone that wants to fight that hasn't. Otherwise, I will vote for people that i lean civ on who want to fight. Who is out there who wants to fight and can you give your fight history when you volunteer? That will help me (and maybe others) a lot. (timmer, I know you have volunteered, what's your fight history?)

#1062

So I just went and read back over the lynch of LC so I could better understand what happened. And considering how it all went down and the question now about Ketterman, I would be more inclined to think he was drawing attention from someone who might be Tyler. Why would an unrecruited civ react over the top like you guys are talking about? So my question is, who might he have been drawing attention from?

#1063

Look away svs - or anyone else that's inclined to. I am an uncrecruited civ. I really thought it couldn't be that easy to have caught bad LC. I was wrong.

As far as who fights, I like JC's reasoning. As such, unless it's deamed that I'm trusted as a civ and the person I am fighting is not believed to be so, I would like not to fight.

I won my only fight. I severely injured MR. I increased in fight level because of that. I do not want to risk fellow civs to fight.

#1064

bea wrote: I won my only fight. I severely injured MR. I increased in fight level because of that. I do not want to risk fellow civs to fight.

Troof

I'll vote for Daisy - recruit suspicion

and Timmer - because he wants to fight

#1065

You know, I'm really unsure about Keterman. Not only am I def. giving him a pass while he can't defend himself, but the more I think about it, the more I just can't see Long Con in a baddie BTSC saying "look, even though I'm obviously toast, why don't you go in there and give yourself away as a fellow baddie, so that we protect Tyler? " Like, it makes no sense. At all. After the first outburst on Keterman's part, Long Con would have been all "sshh, no worries man, this is mafia, shit happens".

I don't think Keterman is bad right now.

#1066

^Nah, I was actually going to add, "What if LC was intended to be the sacrificial lamb anyways". Wouldn't answer anything, really. :/

#1067

I'm going to vote for myself and SVS in the poll. No major reason, just wanna fight.

#1068

^Do you have an opinion on SVS's alignment though?

#1069

Mister Rearranger wrote:^Do you have an opinion on SVS's alignment though?

Not really, tbh. I read through her posts earlier tonight and didn't see anything pingy anywhere, so I felt like she'd be safe to fight against.

#1070

^Meaning you won't damage the civ/Mayhem ratio if you two fight, regardless of outcome? Or...?

#1071

Mister Rearranger wrote:^Meaning you won't damage the civ/Mayhem ratio if you two fight, regardless of outcome? Or...?

Shit man, as much as I love to boast about having theories up the wazoo, I don't know much about much these days. And a lot of things I thought I was right about I was dead wrong.

If you want to have a discussion between now and the morning to try and determine a) whether two probable civs, b) two probable baddies, or c) one of each should fight and THEN try to figure out who fits the winning mild, go for it.

At this point, I don't think any such grand strategy is going to form by morning. So I'm going on gut. And I may not even win the poll to fight, I'm just one guy who wants to fight.

#1072

Just asking some questions since it doesn't seem you took that into account here:

timmer wrote: Let's look at the numbers.

17 players left. Night 8. Tyler has had the chance to recruit 7 times. Two recruits are dead. So I'd say Project Mayhem should equal 6 people right now including Tyler. They will recruit again tonight, going back to 7 members. They will likely try to kill someone tonight. So they will have 7 out of 16 if successful. Let's say they throw Keterman to the wolves and he's lynched. Now they are 6 out of 15. Then they recruit and kill BOOM 7 out of 14 players left. End of the game.

That last part is a lot of supposing, but the key to me is that bullz a) just called Long Con a frustrated civ, b) he was in the same fight club as both DH and Long Con early on, c) the only other player who WAS in those fight clubs voted Long Con early in the lynch, d) I don't think Keterman can be Tyler, though he is very likely a recruit.

Thoughts?

#1073

Oh I thought you were asking about SVS in particular, sorry.

I stand by my hunch on those numbers, until they are proven wrong, anyway. Notice even how Alex called this poll title "the final hours". I do absolutely think we are close to a big problem on the numbers. But my problem is, I have no idea who is bad or good right now, so anyone I try to come up with as a baddie is a complete crapshoot.

As for fighting, I have lots of ideas, about how it works and how it is determined who wins and if so, if their opponent is not injured, seriously injured, or outright killed. But the one thing I believe more than anything, because it is logical, is that the higher a person's fight skill level gets, the more likely it probably is that their opponent is seriously injured or killed.

I've been keeping a spreadsheet, trying to keep track of probable fight levels, and basically of the people who I think are likely still fight level 1 or 2, which includes me, I felt SVS was a good pick. If you are concerned about the ratio of good to bad left in the game, the last thing any of us should do is vote for someone like Canuckle or unfurl who I believe are at a high level. they are the ones most likely to kill an opponent. I think if we stick with the lower level people, the fight should end well. Or at least, it should have a BETTER CHANCE of ending well.

I hope that makes sense. I am clueless on who is bad or good at this point, so I'm sticking with my fight ideas, it's all I've got atm.

#1074

i have not fought yet, but i am apprehensive about doing so at this point in the game. i feel like I'd probably die.

so i'm going to vote for someone else, someone who hasn't won any fights

#1075

I kind of feel like Kyle, I fought once and lost, I don't particularly want to fight again at this point. I would rather vote for someone who wants to fight.

Anyone else looking for a fight? I will vote Timmer & whoever wants to fight. At this point, I have suspected or had second thoughts about almost everyone alive; I don't wish to deviate from the volunteer format.

#1076

Then again, it's the weekend, I will have time to fight. I guess my last fight left me a bit disgruntled about fighting~ I thought I put up a pretty good fight, and still lost. I am at a Level One, I was told I did not drop level when I lost, I was barely injured.

If no one else volunteers, I will do it, I guess. But if someone else of a comparable level does volunteer, let them fight. I will check in from phone later at work, to vote for Timmer & whoever else.

#1077

I'm voting for Timmer and SVS as well, because I trust timmer and that's what he wants. I see that Keterman voted. Isn't he not allowed to vote?

#1078

But I said I do not want to

I said I will if I have no choice but I don't think its right to force me into it.

#1079

S~V~S wrote:But I said I do not want to

I said I will if I have no choice but I don't think its right to force me into it.

I don't think it's wise to nominate only the people who want to fight when the baddies are (presumably) so close to having a majority. Otherwise, they control the fights, which can only be to our detriment.

#1080

I'm going to vote for timmer now and wait to vote on the other person. I hadn't thought of the idea of having one good and one bad fight, but i don't have a clue who is bad right now. SVS you don't sound thrilled about fighting so I don't want to vote for you at this time. I'll wait for someone else to volunteer.

#1081

Keterman's vote for BWT will not be counted FYI.

#1082

MovingPictures07 wrote:Keterman's vote for BWT will not be counted FYI.

I would assume the llama vote won't count either then?

I'm actually leaning towards going for two people I do not trust. I know it's slightly risky, because someone could level up from it, but there's also the possibility that someone who is bad might die in a fight. I'm thinking Sorsha and....someone else. Give me a minute to look the list over.

#1083

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Keterman's vote for BWT will not be counted FYI.
I would assume the llama vote won't count either then?

I'm actually leaning towards going for two people I do not trust. I know it's slightly risky, because someone could level up from it, but there's also the possibility that someone who is bad might die in a fight. I'm thinking Sorsha and....someone else. Give me a minute to look the list over.

Correct, yes. Neither vote will count, thank you. Upon glancing, I thought he had voted only you.

#1084

Scratch that. I'm picking someone I trust to fight someone I don't trust then. And since the person I trust is wanting to fight, I think that works in their favor in terms of winning. I'm voting Timmer and Sorsha.

Linki: It's cool, man. Someone has to cover your ass anyway.

#1085

I dont have much time to be online today
votted for timmer, as I skimmed that he wants to fight, did not know who to pick for second choice

#1086

I am going to only vote for Timmer, since no one else has volunteered.

I spent the whole game not voting to force anyone, how ironic that when someone finally gets forced, it’s me



#1087

Since SVS doesn't actually want to fight, I voted Sorsha and Daisy to make it more even.

#1088

NIGHT 8

Who should fight in these final hours?

Poll ended at Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:34:34 am

bea
0
No votes
birdwithteeth11
1
Keterman (4) 6%
Black Rock
0
No votes
Bullzeye
0
No votes
Canucklehead
0
No votes
Hedgeowl
0
No votes
juliets
0
No votes
Kylemii
0
No votes
Mister Rearranger
0
No votes
Russtifinko
0
No votes
S~V~S
2
timmer (6), thellama73 (8) 13%
Sorsha
2
birdwithteeth11 (11), Bullzeye (15) 13%
Spacedaisy
2
Mister Rearranger (2), Bullzeye (16) 13%
thellama73
1
Keterman (5) 6%
timmer
7
Mister Rearranger (3), timmer (7), thellama73 (9), juliets (10), birdwithteeth11 (12), unfurl (13), S~V~S (14) 44%
unfurl
0
No votes
Everyone!!! (host, dead, mod, injured)
1
MovingPictures07 (1) 6%
Total votes : 16

#1089

Night 8: bea's Last Buzz

bea has been killed by Project Mayhem. She was an unrecruited Civilian.

timmer and S~V~S have begun fighting.

It is now Day 9. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.

#1090

Is keterman supposed to be off the poll? I thought we could lynch him even when he was wounded. Not that I would, but still.

#1091

Hi!! I'm sitting at te SSA on a GORGEOUS Friday afternoon! Joyful!
Seems like a good time to mafia-up...

Back in a few....

#1092

RIP bea

another unrecruited civ down.

#1093

Aw, RIP bea!

thellama73 wrote:Is keterman supposed to be off the poll? I thought we could lynch him even when he was wounded. Not that I would, but still.

I punched him right off of the poll?!

#1094

RIP Bea

#1095

Just thought I should mention I'll be away all weekend and don't know how much time I'll have for mafia. Will have to try to post/vote from my phone when I need to but I won't get many chances.

#1096

I hate coming with this right after Bullz, but I'm going to be out of town from tonight until late Sunday afternoon. I will keep up some and make sure I vote in the lynch, but don't expect a lot from me during that time.

#1097

RIP Bea! You are always missed in a game.

sorry to be absent last night, but our Internet has been wigging out. Seems to be working again this afternoon.

#1098

Okay, so I feel like this lynch is pretty crucial, and that I've spent too much of my time focusing on the early phase of the game trying to find clues about who Tyler is. We've had enough days in phase two now that there should be some more traditional mafia clues to find re: LC's and DH's baddie teammates, and most importantly Tyler.

I'm going to go player by player.

First up is BWT.

Over the last few days BWT has been fairly active, and spent a good deal of time mentioning Long Con. Part of it was in regards to LC's Big Fight Theory or whatever, and indirect from that, to Sorsha, but BWT never shied away from listing LC as a bit suspect.

Also, fwiw, this post doesn't sound like a baddie teammate to me:

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Also, I know we still have a bit over a day to vote, but with this many people still alive, it seems WAY too quiet still. I wouldn't mind hearing more from some people who have been quiet(er) since the merging.

Long Con, I see you lurking. Anything you have to add to the conversation?

BWT voted for Long Con in the lynch, though later into it which doesn't indicate anything.

Overall, I don't get a Tyler or recruit vibe from BWT from his posts, though of course recruitment could change at any time.

#1099

Black Rock wrote:
bea wrote:
Black Rock wrote:Well I have been trying to read and post all day. Either a child got in my way, or work, or my damn internet wasn't working. So much to read today. I went back and read the last day as I had missed a lot. As far as I could see there wasn't much to get out last day. Not much went on or said. The votes weren't really that suspicious.

To be completely honest I'm having troubles remembering specifics from the last couple of pages. So I guess I will have to look at them again. *sigh*
I'm guessing the kids got in the way again during your re-read and that's why you didn't come back with some thoughts besides "I'm feeling so lost right now. OMG this is how the players of my games feel?" it's weird being on the other side of a mind eff game isn't it? You are too good of a player to let you keep sliding on this. I would and have been lynched MANY times for less. see: Day 1 of your last game.

@ MR - maybe it is - maybe it isn't? I don't know. I know that the very name LC is enough of a mind eff that I'm worried that it can't be *this* easy - ya know? Part of me is going - we HAVE to be being played here. Who was it that said - "I feel like I'm sitting in front of two cups of wine?" - yea. That's me re: LC. Also - THANK YOU for actually being up and around. I always feel like I'm talking to myself.

No I went to bed. I was exhausted and I couldn't read anymore. I still haven't gone back.

I'm off today and will be gone till Sunday. I am working the biggest job of my life this weekend. Will be here when I can. I know I am usually more active, but RL has gotten in my way this game.

I find the LC voters very interesting. At this point I hope he turns up baddie. He gets lynched for stupid reasons every game, sometimes he is bad, sometimes he is good. Yes, I do think they are stupid reasons again this game.

I have to vote now, I'm voting for one of the bandwagoners who really had no original thought on it. Not DP, if he's about to die anyways... I went with MR since I feel like llama and Timmer had good reasons, kyle sort of explained himself better. If LC turns up bad then I am wrong, but by my read of the thread it doesn't seem very likely.

Black Rock. Let's start with this post. Bea brings up a good point. Black Rock has spent the last few game days kind of coasting, not really saying much. She says she is busy, and before anyone gets the wrong impression here, I'm sure she is! And she mentioned being away for a few days, etc. But let's take a close look at this quoted post. She pleads not having time to catch up, she says she feels lost. But look at the part I bolded. She sure seems to have an opinion on Long Con, and the people pushing against him. And most interesting, she calls the reasons against Long Con stupid, but then the very next line won't vote for me or llama because we had "good reasons"?

Also of note was the time Long Con logged in as Black Rock and voted in a poll so she wouldn't die. Obviously there are some variables here, such as we don't know exactly when Long Con was recruited, but I think there is a decent chance that a baddie Long Con would have let a civvie Black Rock die in that situation. The fact that he did what he did adds to the chance BR was a recruit or Tyler at the time.

ALSO also of note, though this more abstract, if Black Rock were Tyler, I find it VERY likely that she would have sought out Long Con to recruit him, and if you read her posts from the early phase of the game, she specifically tracked him down in Wilmington. She went there to "find her husband".

I think there are decent odds BR is a recruit or Tyler.

#1100

Bullz I'm going to be a bit more brief on. I've suspected him off and on throughout the game of being bad. However, looking back at the reasons I had, it is all VERY circumstantial. As in, bullz was in the same fight club as DH at one point, and as Long Con at another point. Reading back through his posts, though, his defences sound genuine and I wouldn't put him near the top of my suspect list any time soon.