PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[sunbae]

fwiw, im 99% sure vulgard is specifically roleblocker and that means amy gets a track tonight because ima try to block another kill

[outed wolf]

though i targeted him as an angel target

i appreciate it

[sunbae]

i targeted outed wolf as an angel target, not vulgard

[outed wolf]

amy is 2 shot

so no more tracks sadly amy is just IC

[bronana]

i targeted outed wolf as an angel target, not vulgard

[Marluxion]

@Vulgard I just need to know why
Why put in so much effort into the mason chat

[outed wolf]

ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul

this is horrendous pal

[staypositivefriend]

ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul

in a world where this is a reality, why did vulgard heavily imply to marl at the start of the day that he had a guilty on c4? vulgard's overall approach to the start of the day almost certainly would have been different in a world where he was a JK with a guilty on sunbae, don't you think?

[sunbae]

ah unfortunate

[Marluxion]

@Arete if Vulgard was the jailkeeper he would have targeted c4 from our conversation last night

Meaning sunbae, if a wolf, would know this information was correct. Your theory doesn't check out.

[nutella]

arete spaghete

[c4e5g3d5]

Arete dya
Night

[Amy]

the worst part of not having any tracks left is that i'll probably still be alive on d4

[outed wolf]

c4 still a wolf btw

[sunbae]

[v] vulgard [/v]

i fully expect a counterclaim but learning that they were already setting one up and used it to get c4 makes me think c4 is always a villager as is marl

[staypositivefriend]

i'm fine with vulgard being wolf because it just means that i trusted the arete/vulgard dynamic too much and assumed that they would naturally sort each other out w/out me having to dive too deeply into it. i'm still hoping that c4 isn't a wolf because that read has more of my ego involved in it :P

[bronana]

sunbae, vulgard was surely expecting the kill to go through tho right? i imagine getting jailed would have been fairly shocking to him

c4 still a wolf btw

his reaction was pretty bad imo

[Arete]

ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul

in a world where this is a reality, why did vulgard heavily imply to marl at the start of the day that he had a guilty on c4? vulgard's overall approach to the start of the day almost certainly would have been different in a world where he was a JK with a guilty on sunbae, don't you think?

he didn't

he softed a guilty but he only mentioned c4 once (which is admittedly more than the zero times he mentioned Sunbae)

Night 2 has ended. Nobody has died.

Day 3 begins. You have 48 hours to place your votes.

I’ll post a quiz answer key here later when I can.

Hoping this is a redcheck and not a save, but I'll take either.

that makes two days in a row where I ended the day with dyachei as one of my strongest suspects, only to not feel confident to push the momentum in the direction of their chop

im done with that. i want dya gone today and if they're a villager then I take responsibility for it

I'm going to sleep soon but I need to ask this.

Are you still shielding c4? I have some thoughts about dya myself but I need to ask this first.

VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

Marl are you seeing what I'm seeing?

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

and he hasn't been in the thread since Marl claimed the guilty on c4 so he would have no way of knowing that Marl was claiming a guilty that was incorrect

[staypositivefriend]

in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

[staypositivefriend]

that makes two days in a row where I ended the day with dyachei as one of my strongest suspects, only to not feel confident to push the momentum in the direction of their chop

im done with that. i want dya gone today and if they're a villager then I take responsibility for it

I'm going to sleep soon but I need to ask this.

Are you still shielding c4? I have some thoughts about dya myself but I need to ask this first.

@arete - this post seems to be pretty clearly softing a red check on c4 to me

[sunbae]

Marl flat out said he claimed jk in the chat last night so forgive me if I think no further on the "why would vulgard claim jk" thread than "because hes a wolf and wanted to"

[Marluxion]

@Arete

How could Vulgard be the real roleblocker and sunbae be fake if in order for sunbae to be fake, Vulgard's target would have had to be fake too? Think, Arete, Think!

[staypositivefriend]

@Arete

How could Vulgard be the real roleblocker and sunbae be fake if in order for sunbae to be fake, Vulgard's target would have had to be fake too? Think, Arete, Think!

i just started watching this show yesterday, and it's really fantastic so far. would recommend!

[Arete]

@Arete if Vulgard was the jailkeeper he would have targeted c4 from our conversation last night

Meaning sunbae, if a wolf, would know this information was correct. Your theory doesn't check out.

how confident are you about this

like did he say 'by the way, I, Vulgard, the jailkeeper, am targeting c4,' or did he say 'hm, c4 is kind of suspicious'

[Marluxion]

It's literally his only suspicion he rambled on at length last night

[Marluxion]

Arete I don't want to be pocketed any more than you do

[Arete]

It's literally his only suspicion he rambled on at length last night

okay

did he mention Sunbae at any point and if so what did he say about them

[Marluxion]

He was surprised sunbae was near the bottom of my PoE
I'll go more in detail when I wake up but I'm 4 hours past bedtime rn

[nutella]

i think c4 is actually pretty spewed v by this whole thing

@outed wolf can you explain why you still think hes w

[Arete]

in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night

[Arete]

which is more an argument for him not being a wolf in the first place than for anything specific about c4's alignment

I agree that if Vulgard were to be a wolf c4 would look good from that

[staypositivefriend]

in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night

yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?

[bronana]

Marl flat out said he claimed jk in the chat last night so forgive me if I think no further on the "why would vulgard claim jk" thread than "because hes a wolf and wanted to"

i'm missing why c4 is a villager from this

assuming you are telling the truth and vulgard is a wolf:

- if he expected the kill to fail, does him mentioning c4 to marl really mean anything?

- if he expected the kill to go through ... does him mentioning c4 to marl really mean anything?

vulgard townread c4 yesterday, this was his read on him (he reiterated it later):

Village:

Alison
Amy (IF she doesn't get counterclaimed)
Arete
Chloe
Dizzy
Marl
Nutella

Village with reservations:

c4 (I don't understand his POV sometimes and his progression on Gavial-related reads day 1 doesn't track in a really odd way.)
staypositivefriend (I have no concrete reasons to townread her beyond just liking her posts, vibing, and internally wanting her to be town so we can solve the game together.)

Leaving:

Dya (I'm going to sheep thread consensus on this one, especially if the other alternative is still just Alison)
Sunbae
Visor
Zack

I also made a wallpost during the night that called out c4 as a wolf and didn't mention vulgard at all, if that influenced anything (maybe not since everyone's pretended it didn't exist so far). And c4 got some heat yesterday at EOD from others too. If vulgard carries the kill, the JK targeting c4 doesn't harm c4 and ensures the kill goes through. If the wolves didn't even bother to roleblock amy (which seems like kind of a wtf decision to me regardless lol but shrug) I imagine it's extremely likely wolves expected the kill to go through. And if it didn't ... they knew they'd be screwed in that world (fairly deep vulgard outed + town gains a misyeet) and the c4 thing with marl was just a big anti-spew grenade, no?

what am i missing?

[Arete]

in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night

yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?

hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill

idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense

[Marluxion]

in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night

yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?

hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill

idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense

Correct. That's why he tried to save face even though he knew he was going to be outed the instant Amy outed her results if he's the wolf RBer

[sunbae]

my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too

[nutella]

god this is confusing ok

[Marluxion]

Arete is in the first stage of grief

Or they're a wolf with vul and want to go down together

One or the other

[dyachei]

[VOTE: vulgard] aubergine

[Marluxion]

I can't wait to see chloes reaction to this clusterfuck lmao

[staypositivefriend]

based on the information that we have right now, it looks like vulgard saw that the kill was blocked and decided to fakeclaim JK with a guilty on c4. he tried to nudge marl into claiming for him so that he wouldn't have to do it himself

what does vulgard gain from putting c4 in this specific position in a world where they're teamed with each other? in a world where c4 gets chopped and they're a wolf, then the wolves wouldn't know who the real JK was the following night, and the JK would get another free visit, and vulgard would get no towncred from c4 dying

but in a world where c4 is a villager, it would be beneficial for c4 to get chopped and for marl to take heat the following day for guiltying a villager. or vulgard could have been hoping that marl would have continued to fakeclaim/cover for him even after the real JK outed w/a guilty on vulgard

[bronana]

i almost want to say arete is twtbaw lol

if he's a wolf the team is probably in truly dire straits from his reaction

[dyachei]

sunbae has been sort of towny for me but sort of not, that fits with PR pretty well

[sunbae]

god this is confusing ok

its really not?

marl had nightchat with vulgard
vulgard conned him into claiming jk to out the real one
it worked

jk was super awesome tho and at least blocked the kill vulgard carried on his way out and people should feel ok about the way he played

arete is either a wolf or just really doesnt want it to hbe true and is trying to find a world where it could make sense
alas such a world exists not

[staypositivefriend]

in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night

yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?

hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill

idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense

yeah that does make sense - i think that vulgard decided to claim JK upon seeing that no one died, and that he was probably laying the groundwork for a fakeclaim later in the game prior to that point

i dont understand why that reasoning points to vulgard being a villager

[bronana]

based on the information that we have right now, it looks like vulgard saw that the kill was blocked and decided to fakeclaim JK with a guilty on c4. he tried to nudge marl into claiming for him so that he wouldn't have to do it himself

what does vulgard gain from putting c4 in this specific position in a world where they're teamed with each other? in a world where c4 gets chopped and they're a wolf, then the wolves wouldn't know who the real JK was the following night, and the JK would get another free visit, and vulgard would get no towncred from c4 dying

but in a world where c4 is a villager, it would be beneficial for c4 to get chopped and for marl to take heat the following day for guiltying a villager. or vulgard could have been hoping that marl would have continued to fakeclaim/cover for him even after the real JK outed w/a guilty on vulgard

if vulgard is a wolf who carried the kill he surely knew he was outed and it would be an understatement to say anything he said today should be taken with a grain of salt

him pushing marl to claim a guilty on c4 (when vulgard would *know* it's wrong) likely gets the real JK to claim and maybe even gets people to clear c4 a bit? I really don't think it's that weird of a play if c4 is a wolf, though it's not 100% or anything

[dyachei]

arete has the want I think

[sunbae]

sunbae has been sort of towny for me but sort of not, that fits with PR pretty well

towny when im actually talking about the game, not towny when i saying shit to not die is a pretty good recap of this one lol

[Marluxion]

Vulgard didn't con me into fake claiming for him I did that of my own volition since he had claimed jk to me last night and he was hinting at c4 being red with his posts today

[sunbae]

would you prefer "jedi mind tricked" instead of "conned"?