PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[outed wolf]

Arete just going down with the ship or?

[bronana]

if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

[outed wolf]

Inb4 sunbae is just fake claiming X d

[Arete]

I'm in a weird place right now where I want to solve things that aren't just Vul/Sunbae

but the Vul/Sunbae thing is obviously super important for that

and even though Vulgard is 99 percent just the villager there's still a little part of me that's scared that I'll start looking through Sunbae for associations and Vulgard will get back and start lolcatting

weh

I skimmed through Sunbae's Iso hoping to find a smoking gun that would prove he's a lying wolf but sadly I didn't find one

alternatively if Vul gets back and doesn't immediately openwolf I can spend every one of my posts defending him and pushing Sunbae, I have a hundred and forty of them today

why do you think vul is 99% v

idgi

are you just openwolfing

I'm assuming you don't just want a reiteration of my reasons for townreading him

I know him very well and historically have had an extremely high rate of accurately reading him by the end of day 1, so it would be very surprising if I were wrong here, more surprising than a wolf faking a redcheck (which happens all the time)

also I really don't want to be wrong because I like having an automatic free mason/free wolf pelt but that doesn't affect the odds that I am wrong

[sunbae]

Ok, let me try my best to lay out the current game state prior to really digging into stuff. There are 13 players left and no extra kills. There are 3 wolves and 10 villagers. That means we have three mischops available if my math is right

10/3 → chop 1 → 9/3 → nk1 8/3
8/3 → chop 2 → 7/3 → nk2 6/3
6/3 → chop 3 → 5/3 → nk3 4/3
Chop 4 = loss

We have two power roles which means 8 non-pr villagers out of 11 non-pr players. So we need to clear 8 non-pr people. 8. It's a lot given the game state. We have work to do.

Vulgard is a wolf. Vulgard was jailkept last night and no kill happened. Additionally, Amy – the claimed tracker – received an action (Dizzy went nowhere). This means that the wolves did not attempt to kill Amy, that the Jailkeeper (me) did not save Amy, and the wolves did not attempt to roleblock Amy. The most likely scenario – by a significant margin – is that Vulgard – someone who was perfectly above suspicion thus far – is a wolf that carried the kill towards Amy OR carried both the kill to X and a roleblock to Amy. This is because if the wolves tried to kill Amy she would be dead and if the wolves didn't try to kill Amy then they would roleblock her. Since neither occurred we must assume this scenario is the most likely.

The only scenario that has been explored where Vulgard is not a wolf is if Marl is one. This is due to the night chat between Vulgard and Marl. In it, Vulgard claimed Jailkeeper to Marl. In this scenario, villager Vulgard tried to bait a wolf read Marl into killing him over the tracker. Wolf Marl bites, expecting Amy to be jailkept by Vulgard due to their conversation and wolves save their roleblock. This scenario – while technically plausible – makes little logical sense considering it results in the wolves holding their roleblock for no reason given Amy will be out of tracks after the night. This would mean that Amy would have to also be a wolf or else the rest of the scenario makes little sense. For this scenario to continue, marl must not only be a wolf with Amy, but also a wolf with C4. That's due to Vulgard insinuating a soft to Marl that he blocked C4, causing Marl to fake claim to try and out C4. In this scenario, c4 actually would have to have carried the kill, the wolves would know it, and were throwing C4 under the bus thinking C4 was outed.

The only reason this is even listed is due to Arete going HAM refusing to believe Vulgard is a wolf, so I am being thorough. This theory is also IMMENSELY flawed because it would required wolves to have targeted Vulgard for a kill while also believing Vulgard saved c4. This is, as such, mechanically impossible. Additionally, the real tracker would 100% claim today after being out of tracks. This has not happened. If it did, the wolf team is exactly Marl, C4, and Amy and the game is over.

As such, mechanically, mathematically, however you want to spin it, Vulgard is a wolf. End of story.



Once it becomes established that Vulgard is a wolf, Marl becomes a villager. The way Vulgard handled Marl in the night chat claiming JK to him and then entered today goading Marl into “seeing what I'm seeing” and claiming a block on c4 is how a wolf treats the pocketed villager. I also believed that Marl was a villager after reading his iso yesterday so I feel this is a pretty concrete landing spot.

This leaves the game at:

v
Sunbae
Amy
Marl

w
Vulgard


Left to sort:
Arete
Bronana
C4
Dya
Dyslexicon
Nutella
Outed Wolf
SPF
Chloe



The next person to sort is Arete. During end of day 1 I noticed that Arete spent their time making a pretty long, thorough, detailed case on why Vulgard was a villager. They both mentioned their god-reads of each other and declared – repeatedly – that they were both town. I asked Arete why they spent time talking about that and the response was to ensure nobody fear killed Vulgard on day 4. At the time, I felt this was just so far out there that a wolf would be unlikely to come up with it. I also feel like the reaction to learning Vulgard is a wolf is just … really weird for a wolf to do? Like, you have to know as a wolf that no matter if you put all of your eggs into the defend Vulgard basket, they are dying either today or tomorrow after I do with zero exceptions. I feel like a wolf would make a production about being fooled and make sure to be right on this. However, the only reasons I find Arete towny this game are due to saying things I don't expect which, when we're at this point, isn't really enough. They have tied themselves so intricately to Vulgard that I believe at this time it is impossible to clear them. I will put them into their own tier: Villagery for now but don't lose to them.


Next we of course get to Dya. Dya has spent two days pressing Allison who flipped vanilla town. Mispushes happen, they are no biggie. But during the course of those two days multiple people pointed out that it felt as if Dya's focus was extremely narrow. Like, the sole purpose of their posting was to kill Alison and not to solve an entire wolf team. I feel similar to that and will await where Dya goes over the next 5 real life days (today is Vulgard). I also made the note during day 2 that the initial Dya/Alison wagons shifted hard to Alison/Amy at some point and I think that's a relevant thread to investigate. Find how that wagon built. Is it nefarious? Is it organic? I think the answer to that question will help answer the question of Dya. Dya goes into a wolf read tier for me.


Chloe: I had big concerns about Chloe when Alison flipped town. The reason is that Chloe was simultaneously calling Alison wolfy and villagery for similar things depending on what she was trying to say. “Wouldn't wolf Alison be trying to do something” and “I guess if she's not gonna do anything she's in anti spew” are very difficult for me see from the same player being town. Additionally, Chloe's posting as a whole read like someone spinning their wheels waiting for the mischop. The long catchup posts of day 1 especially seemed concerning to me. I feel like when villagers catch up they just … catch up … and don't make a production out of it. I call it “busy work” and I do it a ton as wolf. I think it's important to check when Chloe turned on Alison because I believe if it's once Dya started getting run up again then we have significant concerns of a w/w pairing. Wolf Tier Read.

Outed Wolf is someone who I have a villager read on but none of them for great reasons. He's one of the best wolves I've ever seen but I just feel this is a villager game. Most notably, the posting today during all this confusion – specifically the “regardless of the mechanics vulgard kept calling me/sunbae/bronana wolfy but never doing anything with it so wolf” post -strikes me as someone who is a villager. I also think the push on Amy came from a good place as well as pressing others for their Amy read. I think Outed Wolf is a villager a significant portion of the time.

Bronana has one or two small things that concern me – notably how I believe they spent a portion near eod trying to push me onto the Alison wagon with the “you're letting others distract you, you know what you want to do” post. I can envision villager bronana just trying to help me right the ship though given my stated uncertainty. I really liked his overnight post and his posts on C4 today, and I think him opening today with a vote on me was a pretty understandable and reasonable place for his head to go. Specifically with the phrase “who are the wolves” because, frankly, I've been pretty tight lipped about who I thought the wolves are. I think their comments about KZA that Dizzy was against are perfectly reasonable (I also saw the 3 kza posts in the iso and didn't explore further when I called him a potential kill). My only other minor concern is that through a quick skim of the iso they avoided the Dya wagon (voted both Alison and Amy) so I could see some minor potential wolfmates there but they've also poked at Dya some too so who knows? I have as “probably a villager but I wouldn't be the game on it right now”.

There are a lot of different people that think Nutella is an obvious villager and if Chloe is a wolf I think Nutella always is town given the two paragraph essay about why IC nutella was towny. Amy specifically feels strongly here (was absolutely shocked I found nutella wolfy d2) and at this point I'll just grumble and believe people. I do think Nutella has spent quite a few posts trying to shade people for “weird observations” instead of normal wolfy things (“should I find it suspicious that sunbae is making pr reads” was one but there were others) and that concerns me, as well as the way KZA was talked about while pushing Gavriel day 1, but I'm willing to chalk all of this up to just not being in sync with them right now.

I think Spf is just a villager. They haven't felt performative or called attention to themselves in a way I was concerned about. There was a really weird interaction Vulgard had about SPF on day 1 where he made a wolf read on her and then walked it back when others bit back and like, maaaaaybe that could be distancing and letting villagers make your villa read on a teammate for you, but I really enjoyed the interactions she had with me about various things. Most importantly, I think she's been poking around trying to figure things out thoughout the game without any concern for making sure she looks good in hindsight.

I spent quite an amount of time last game day reading Dizzy's iso. I feel overall fine with them – especially given their pretty sick “word choice” read on Vulgard “repping” something and the fact that it was on a wolf makes me feel even better. I even said “thats a type of read I see newcomb make that I sponge to great success” and, truth be told, was the deciding factor in me jailkeeping there. Dizzy goat.

That leaves c4 who, idfk. Dya's been pressing there, Bronana has started pressing there, Vulgard was insinuating wolf there to Marl. Basically c4 has become the next in line on the poe list and I have no reason to really argue with it. I didn't love the reaction to the Marl thing but meh. I need to look in there.



My current game state is:

Town
Sunbae
Amy

Likely Town
Marl
SPF
Nutella
Dizzy
Outed Wolf

Think villa but wouldn't bet game on it
Bronana
Arete


POE
C4
Chloe
Dya

Wolf
Vulgard

[sunbae]

if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

ignore previous post, this is never a wolf though and bro is just a villager

[Arete]

if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

[sunbae]

@sunbae I found the things that made me tinfoil Dya/Vulgard.
May or may not be extremely dumb.

I'm kinda townreading Dya for their consistent frustration over being scumread, but at the same time I can only mildly townread them for it for so long. This and their Alison scumread they've been repping for a while are the only things I remember Dya doing, while most other players have voiced reads on every other player in the game, done significant analysis, etc.

Using the word "repping" is interesting, because it doesn't signal to me a mindframe that it's a read Dya is having, but rather projecting.

However, first of all, lol language. And I also gathered that Vulgard, from what I understand, is not a native English speaker like myself. And I myself may misread the significance of this particular word here. But it crossed my mind.

I think I've been fairly consistent in saying that you haven't been exclusively tunneling Alison, but that your read on Alison is definitely the highlight of your contributions so far. It's the first thing I associate with you in this game, outside of the constant defensive attitude. The defensive attitude part is something I could see being NAI based on how I saw you play as town sometimes, but yeah.

Speaking of reads outside of Alison, do the flips give you more reads outside of Alison? What do you think @ my townread of Alison?

Also this. I don't quite understand, because they say the defensive attitude could be NAI based on how they have seen Dya as town. Does this mean that Dya is not town here? Is it meant to say "based on how I saw you play as scum"? Am I reading this wrong or reading too much into this?

To be clear, I actually read Vulgard as more town. And I don't really have a read on Dya. But these are two things that crossed my mind, and they are very detailed, so it may just be me reading too much into things.

This is the post im referencing and I cannot fathom this came from a wolf towards wolf vulgard

[outed wolf]

Good posts jim

[bronana]

acknowledging that i read your wall sunbae and found it extremely cromulent and i experienced what can only be described as an embiggening of my brain

if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

ignore previous post, this is never a wolf though and bro is just a villager

just like that?

[nutella]

Chloe: I had big concerns about Chloe when Alison flipped town. The reason is that Chloe was simultaneously calling Alison wolfy and villagery for similar things depending on what she was trying to say. “Wouldn't wolf Alison be trying to do something” and “I guess if she's not gonna do anything she's in anti spew” are very difficult for me see from the same player being town. Additionally, Chloe's posting as a whole read like someone spinning their wheels waiting for the mischop. The long catchup posts of day 1 especially seemed concerning to me. I feel like when villagers catch up they just … catch up … and don't make a production out of it. I call it “busy work” and I do it a ton as wolf. I think it's important to check when Chloe turned on Alison because I believe if it's once Dya started getting run up again then we have significant concerns of a w/w pairing. Wolf Tier Read.

agree with all this

"spinning her wheels waiting for the mischop" is a good way of putting it

I... thinking about it now I actually don't *think* both arete and chloe are wolves with vulgard, would be pretty funny but it seems more likely there's just pocketing going on. So you may be right that arete is simply a stubborn villager who believes in their read/is doubling down on their currently contrarian view, and chloe is a wolf

[bronana]

one of my concerns with dya is how they've had tangy/chloe as top tier town all game for what did not seem like particularly strong reasons

[sunbae]

I'm reading through Dya's iso and just want to take note of a few posts I missed which were asking me to stop using the phrase "dejected" etc to describe them. That's my bad, apologies. Shouldn't try to act like I know your emotions and it's gotta be annoying. I'll try and axe that from my game in the future. Never really considered it before but totally understand.

@dyachei

[Amy]

if the team is chloe/vulgard/dya then nobody should ever listen to my reads ever again lmao

[bronana]

if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

alright if you are that confident in your ability to read vulgard, i can see how you'd interpret it that way (though I disagree - he is still lightly encouraging marl to claim there despite my post, and further marl clearly thought vul meant he jailed c4, and vul didn't contradict him)

[sunbae]

Now we get into not w/w pairs.


Nutella and Dya are never wolves together. Nutella is relentless on Dya day 1 including saying Dya/Gav are just w/w and voting Dya over Gav, telling her “sorry for the rand”, and calling out Dya's read on Alison making her the wolf in the Alison/Dya exchange. “I feel like Dya's narrative doesn't make sense at all”.

Nutella and Chloe are never wolves together. Chloe spent two paragraphs explaining the IC Nutella read out of nowhere. Additionally, Nutella just daggers Tangrowth on day 1 with a “this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says” in response to a long, thought out post of Tangys.

As a continuation of that, Chloe and Bronana are not wolves together because Bronana immediately called out Chloe for doing that two paragraph read on IC nutella.

Bronana and C4 should never be wolves together, given Bronana spent a chunk of day 2 calling out c4's day as being “just weird, it's like he is expressing a ton of confidence but is not making much of an impact pushing those confident reads?” and then followed it up with shade overnight and at the start of the day.

As I read through Bronana's iso some more there's also a good interaction with Vulgard near eod. First a “i am not crazy about vulgard's d2 either, i don't know if I'm comfortable calling them v/v regardless of how well they claim to read each other” followed by a “lets say you get your cfd on me (i seem to be your only real suspect apparently afaict), i flip town. how does this affect the rest of your reads? (if you want to also answer the converse of cfding me and i flip mafia, feel free but know it's a dreamland)” that doesn't seem aligned. Plus, I think his post a minute ago about how “JK vulgard doesn't need marl to switch because my vote on sunbae could be something to look at” comes from the mindset of a villager like, every time (I hope Im not proven wrong).

I also don't think Dya and Arete make the most sense as wolfmates. There's a pretty ok back and forth where Arete is asking Dya some questions on day 2 and Dyas just chilling answering them and it doesn't seem like, a fabricated thing or anything meant to be pointed back to later or anything.

I think people should reread dya's case on c4 from day 2 and subsequent followups and see what you think. I'm the one that asked about a c4 read and I can't quite land on how I feel about it from a “can it be partners” front. I like the case as a whole fwiw.



Side note: it feels so good to be able to just like, play werewolf without the stress of staying hidden/not rocking the boat too much. Prs suuuuuck

[sunbae]

they* sorry, my brain is mush at the moment writing so many words and jumping from person to person

[Arete]

if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

alright if you are that confident in your ability to read vulgard, i can see how you'd interpret it that way (though I disagree - he is still lightly encouraging marl to claim there despite my post, and further marl clearly thought vul meant he jailed c4, and vul didn't contradict him)

It is true that Vulgard didn't contradict him but he also has not posted since Marl made the claim post, and he's in a European time zone, though I agree that it would probably be weird for him to soft that Marl should claim to him and then go to sleep without waiting to see if he actually did/what he claimed??

I do agree that from his posting alone it makes more sense for him to have targeted c4 than Sunbae, I just struggle to understand Sunbae's counterclaim in that world. Like, 'I'm going to literally mechanically out myself tomorrow so that I can get a single PR misexe'd and tie myself to a wolfmate who's always getting yeeted, due to being redchecked by said PR' is approximately the most nonsensical wolf strategy I can come up with.

[sunbae]

If I ignore arete and vulgard godreading each other town, I'm not sure how villagy I actually think they are

maybe they're w/w and playing it up for theater, but I feel like this saying that:

my biggest issue with zack is that it felt like after people started theorizing a me/him/dya wolfteam he kinda... shifted his positioning in the threadstate, such that it more closely aligned with mine and dya's? i can try to elaborate on what i mean by this but i'd have to pull quotes and i'm still kinda multitasking

and like, normally that would be a good thing! cause at the very least i can be secure in my own alignment, so zack agreeing with me should be a good thing

but it just felt... too convenient. and like, if i were a wolf in zack's position, that's probably exactly what i'd do - try to tie myself to a villager(/villagers, if dya is green) and bank on people cooling on the team read when that flip comes back

i have some other concerns about zack but i want to reread to see if they're worth anything

@Dyslexicon you asked me earlier what i meant by not being worried about zack after kza's flip - it was mostly a pretty level 1 "i remember zack wanting to kill kza yesterday, so that's probably a good look for him" sort of thing. i know some people have since cased his kza progression; i haven't had the chance to go back and look at it myself

if you are a villager, and i was a wolf, in this gamestate ... I would just be trying to kill you.

why would i even be trying to tie myself to you when you are ahead of me in the POE idgi, I'm under suspicion but I've never felt like me dying today was a serious threat.

yeah i cant see bro/vulgard as w/w, sorry for taking so long bronana

[bronana]

Now we get into not w/w pairs.


Nutella and Dya are never wolves together. Nutella is relentless on Dya day 1 including saying Dya/Gav are just w/w and voting Dya over Gav, telling her “sorry for the rand”, and calling out Dya's read on Alison making her the wolf in the Alison/Dya exchange. “I feel like Dya's narrative doesn't make sense at all”.

Nutella and Chloe are never wolves together. Chloe spent two paragraphs explaining the IC Nutella read out of nowhere. Additionally, Nutella just daggers Tangrowth on day 1 with a “this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says” in response to a long, thought out post of Tangys.

As a continuation of that, Chloe and Bronana are not wolves together because Bronana immediately called out Chloe for doing that two paragraph read on IC nutella.

Bronana and C4 should never be wolves together, given Bronana spent a chunk of day 2 calling out c4's day as being “just weird, it's like he is expressing a ton of confidence but is not making much of an impact pushing those confident reads?” and then followed it up with shade overnight and at the start of the day.

As I read through Bronana's iso some more there's also a good interaction with Vulgard near eod. First a “i am not crazy about vulgard's d2 either, i don't know if I'm comfortable calling them v/v regardless of how well they claim to read each other” followed by a “lets say you get your cfd on me (i seem to be your only real suspect apparently afaict), i flip town. how does this affect the rest of your reads? (if you want to also answer the converse of cfding me and i flip mafia, feel free but know it's a dreamland)” that doesn't seem aligned. Plus, I think his post a minute ago about how “JK vulgard doesn't need marl to switch because my vote on sunbae could be something to look at” comes from the mindset of a villager like, every time (I hope Im not proven wrong).

I also don't think Dya and Arete make the most sense as wolfmates. There's a pretty ok back and forth where Arete is asking Dya some questions on day 2 and Dyas just chilling answering them and it doesn't seem like, a fabricated thing or anything meant to be pointed back to later or anything.

I think people should reread dya's case on c4 from day 2 and subsequent followups and see what you think. I'm the one that asked about a c4 read and I can't quite land on how I feel about it from a “can it be partners” front. I like the case as a whole fwiw.

Side note: it feels so good to be able to just like, play werewolf without the stress of staying hidden/not rocking the boat too much. Prs suuuuuck

sunbae, this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says

Spoiler: show

hehe

i'm not sure about the dya/arete one but otherwise seems good

[sunbae]

sheeping my mason
nyoom

[VOTE: Amy] aubergine

think dya is a likelier hit than amy just for the fact that i've liked amy's tone
but i also feel like they have high partner equity

...

[nutella]

Side note: it feels so good to be able to just like, play werewolf without the stress of staying hidden/not rocking the boat too much. Prs suuuuuck

the haru has arrived


seriously thanks for doing all this work, it's good shit. the dizzy and bronana stuff really helps me feel better about those slots, and I'm kinda just zeroing in on the dya/chloe/vul solve atm. I should put in *some* effort looking back at things at some point but your solving is like a golden ray of clarity rn

[nutella]

sheeping my mason
nyoom

[VOTE: Amy] aubergine

think dya is a likelier hit than amy just for the fact that i've liked amy's tone
but i also feel like they have high partner equity

...

:cantlook:

@Chloe hello did you take advantage of my bad reads

[outed wolf]

I think killing in there plus C4 and arete ends the game

[nutella]

I even said “thats a type of read I see newcomb make that I sponge to great success” and, truth be told, was the deciding factor in me jailkeeping there. Dizzy goat.

@Dyslexicon always with the clutch plays

[sunbae]

Plz remind me postgame to make "sunbae, this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says" a quote on mu for my profile

[bronana]

i would go vulgard -> chloe -> [one of c4/dya]

Feels like this game is following the usual dead wolf early -> town implodes on itself a day or two -> town rights the ship and bitch slaps the wolves, gg dang bronana had some heckin good tone d3 what a pure villa.

and sunbae we formed a band on page 2 remember, it's all good in the hood

a trivial debate of nitpicks and semantics over a harmless read that nonetheless reveals a villagy mindset from Amy A. Ampharos while sunbae and I slither our way into an immutable Towncore of the Driven Snow with her.

I'm making a band

im derping around on the drums
amy just being cool af on the bass
you can play guitar because why not

gotta find someone for the and a good to mix our stuff properly

[nutella]

Plz remind me postgame to make "sunbae, this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says" a quote on mu for my profile

Tbh about that

I feel kinda bad bc it was like an emotion thing tangy was describing but I also slightly wolfread her reacting to me saying that as if I'd slapped her in the face rather than as if I was lightheartedly joking about her rambly style

[outed wolf]

I would go vulgard and then dya I think, then C4/Chloe in whatever order

Should still have room to kill arete if we hit two wolves too

[bronana]

hopefully we're not horribly wrong

[sunbae]

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: dyachei] aubergine

[VOTE: marl] aubergine

feeling good about chloe lol and... yeah

"c4 getting tilted at people agreeing with him completely but not acknowledging his existence"
SPOILER: SHOW

[VOTE: dyachei] aubergine
i appreciate you remotely detonated explosive chessguy

my initial instinct wasn't to derpclear marl from that but based on both his own reaction and arete's + chloe's, yeah sure

gonna fuck around and [VOTE: Amy] aubergine

visor tunneling her/dya seems worth some weight

sunbae i dont think you're fairly representing my kza/gav attitudes, and while i get that you're hesitant to just trust others' meta reads on me, I'm really hoping you can just read through my posts from today and find them villagery on their own merit, it's possible my play style just doesn't quite vibe with yours but i would like to work together. I appreciate that you're open minded about dya as well, tbh I change my mind on them like every few hours lol but I agree with visor that they're flat and with marl that they're a bit similar to reflections. town dya can be stubborn/tunnelly yes but usually I can follow their approach more than I have here.

I also very much vibed with visor's evaluation of amy as like, overly confident and not actually engaging deeply with reads

sheeping my mason
nyoom

[VOTE: Amy] aubergine

think dya is a likelier hit than amy just for the fact that i've liked amy's tone
but i also feel like they have high partner equity

[VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine

omgus. I don't understand your case on me or why Nutella finds it so compelling, feels like you are maybe trying to bait me into a thunderdome as an avenue to generate content today

at some point searching my name I think I saw visor made a reads list wall with actual reasons and thought who even are you

I am not totally comfortable with Amy/dya but I don't really think they are wolves there I said it prepare your memes if one or both flips red

I think the consensus poe is probably bunk but have no good ideas myself for where to go, maybe some combo of dizzy/marl/Alison ... c4? some person being townread for doing stuff? are we are vulgard is town? why is visor so confident nutella is town

I wanted to go to sleep awhile ago but couldn't stop thinking about this shit even though I never fully caught up on the thread. mafia is so freaking dumb

classic shitty late night zack post people will hate

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

i guess?

i'm having misgivings about dya, not because of anything they've done but because everyone else seems SO certain that they're onto something that i wonder if i'm a dumbass for wanting to townread them

and that's the primary thing giving me pause about my alison read

but i think alison's playing a fairly underwhelming game if town and i still think the seth thing is weird

though c4 did still have a cromulent point about the w/w vs w/v thing... i think? i haven't reread the interactions in question

and i'm not going to tonight

this post is a mess probably but i probably shouldn't be awake given my recent sleeping troubles

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

I feel like usually I am the one who correctly wolfreads dya when other people think they're a villager, so this game where they're the most consensus suspect but I don't really think they're a wolf is bizarro land. Same applies to amy but to a lesser extent, I'm not sure how I feel about amy.

Am I so out of touch? No, it's the POE that is wrong

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[VOTE: amy] aubergine

If y'all are gonna have cold feet on dya, whatever

Kill Amy then

[VOTE: amy] aubergine

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

[VOTE: Amy] aubergine

I feel like I should be voting someone and more of my villagereads are here

@nutella Can you go through how you thought about Gavial's and KZA's alignment and the relation between these? Because I distinctly remember that the consensus seemed to be that KZA might've TMI-ed Gavial as town. And in general, I think it was pretty obvious the pair did not fit as w/w. Even I, with he little context I had, came to this conclusion. Yet, you seemed to suggest KZA would be scum regardless of Gavial's flip, if I'm not mistaken (as Sunbae showed). Why is this?

I don't remember particularly associating them either way on d1, I felt more strongly that KZA would flip scum and was voting there, but was fine with Gav being chopped. Maybe in retrospect I should have seen the KZA stuff that spewed Gav not w/w with him, but it wasn't on my mind at the time.


Alison's posts still have me concerned -- her view of the game feels limited and unclear.

Appreciating Dizzy's thoughts and the convergence on Alison and bronana as priority suspects works for me. Think Amy is still my #1 choice atm but those are all names I want to see talked about for the chop. Honestly might just go for zack over amy (seeing the amy post about how zack might be deliberately tying himself to her -- I'd probably still want to chop her next if zack is red but would be worth further consideration at least... also i can't even tell if that's a thing anymore or if hes all in on sring her now lol) (alternatively they're still w/w and just both shifting into distancing more now aa)


still reading and condensing into one post

i like c4's read that alison reacted more strongly to being tied to seth than to w/v cases, that could be a real mindset thing, i'm not totally following the whole discussion of the comparison that follows tho

zack do you have any thoughts on my post outside of the fact that you think im being overexplainy on my early nut read
did you read the actual words, basically
because that felt nasty ngl and i dont get the feeling you actually read the content and instead jumped onto something to try to cast me in a bad light

no me gusta

samebrainsamebrain

@Amy Should I bus you?

um

is scumchat on the Syndicate usually on Discord or on the forum itself?

lmao arete really is just town huh

lol



weh at 2193 now i'm appreciating amy expressing those concerns with dya (not defending their townreads, and again not having been super transparent with thoughts itt)


i wonder if i'm better off voting zack bc like, i think he's probably just a wolf, whereas i'm at sort of a weird back-and-forth on amy and dya? with alison just another wrench in things. overall still have amy as a stronger gut wolfread than dya, though i don't hate her recent posts. hrm

amy's readlist in 2233 is very.... suddenly consensusy? i mean that's not necessarily bad. thread state has herself + alison/dya/zack as the main poe rn and it makes sense she'd turn to focusing there as either alignment


let's shake things up a bit [VOTE: bronana] aubergine



re: the most recent discussion: i do wish i felt more cohesion yeah. i think there's sort of nebulously a towncore and nebulously a consensus poe but not a huge amount of cooperation. i apologize for my part in being individualistic (and honestly i might not improve on that much this phase since i'm paying more mind to the postcap until eod). i do feel arete specifically has had a bit more of a narrow focus, and i've still been hesitant to include them fully in my own core. on the meta read stuff, again i apologize for having some of those but i don't think i've solely leaned on them for anyone, i've made reads here pretty mainly focused on people's contributions and engagement in this thread. like, there's plenty to go off of -- not having insights into other ppl's meta is not an excuse to hold back on giving your thoughts on them based on game content

[VOTE: dyachei] aubergine

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

fuck it, i'm done letting her slot continue to exist

she has ignored prods to give us anything, just like kza did

there've been a couple decent micro-level reasons she could be a villager, but as she's continued to do nothing it really just kinda feels like she's demotivated/resigned/in antispew-ish territory

@ spf, my take is that if alison flips red i would put dya on a more-or-less clear-til-lylo level personally. i don't see them just zeroing in on hard bussing a partner from the get-go, unless it was literally a bigbrain alison strat that was cooked up in wolfchat from the start. and maybe i'm naive if i don't at least entertain that possibility, because lord knows alison is capable of targeting tailored plans to fool the people she needs to fool. but i've seen town dya just latch onto reads like that and get upset about not being listened to earlier enough times that, well, i would give them credit for it.

im breaking kayfabe, lets kill amy

too many verbose posts that go nowhere, the zomg everyone is so villagy wallpost, trying to tie herself to me by accusing me of trying to tie myself to her

[VOTE: ampharos] aubergine

idk why i hesitated, idk what dya is seeing in amy, maybe its just something dumb like amy/dya/chloe and dya decided to hard tr her partners, who knows

i'm tired and i wanna make sure people still have posts

@Alison
@Arete
@bronana
@c4e5g3d5
@dyachei
@Dyslexicon
@Gavial
@Hally
@Marluxion
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@nutella
@outed wolf
@staypositivefriend
@sunbae
@Tangrowth
@Vulgard

hardclaim tracker

n1 zack no visit

be here in earnest in like 10 minutes

Here was the day two rise and claim of the amy wagon. Outside of the chloe post I mentioned the other noteworthy things are Nutella actually throwing a vote around elsewhere instead of on two villagers (3 if dya is town) in the lead which I find towny and SPF going back to Dya a couple of times which I think makes them unlikely pairs. We've talked a bit about Bronana's avoiding Dya + later trying to get me onto Alison, but I find him towny anyways so I'm not concerned.

Anyone notice anything themselves?

[Arete]

I didn't actually read all the quotes but I do notice that Chloe specifically sheeped onto the Amy wagon without actually making a read on her herself, just saying that she was sheeping Nutella (?)

which isn't necessarily always scummy, I did the same thing with sheeping Vul onto Amy , but when she voted Alison she did the same thing where most of the justification she gave for her vote was reasonable-but-not-alignment-based ('Dya is more useful than Alison' type logic) rather than actually calling Alison a wolf even if she did shade her nonpresence a bit

and that's a pattern that makes me mrrr a bit, justifying your vote with a reason that's still true if you have TMI is the sort of mistake I don't expect Chloe to prevent herself from making

[sunbae]

I have minor, minor, minor concerns reading through Vulgard's iso that there are multiple instances of Vulgard getting others to elaborate on town reads of SPF and - given I think vulgard is like, hyper mega elite from what I've seen - I do have concerns that it could be a situation where a wolf is expressing minor concern/confusion on a wolfmate and gets villagers to talk them off of it/towncase the teammate for them/whatever you call it.

There's: "Elaborate on SPF, please. I have SPF as town for vague "I like her posts and I like SPF so I want her to be town" reasons but yes." towards Amy (town)

"I'm starting to townread SPF for the sole reason that I like her posts and not because of anything she has done. Help." towards Arete (I'm thinking pocketed townie)

"So the things I bolded as TMI indicators are just the way she [Sunbae's addition: referring to SPF] talks?" towards c4 getting c4 to continue defending SPF


I think this only comes into play if Dya ends up being town though. Felt like it needed to be said tho. Also, if SPF does end up being a wolf, arete and c4 are villagers


starting to get the puzzle pieces in place friends

[sunbae]

I didn't actually read all the quotes but I do notice that Chloe specifically sheeped onto the Amy wagon without actually making a read on her herself, just saying that she was sheeping Nutella (?)

which isn't necessarily always scummy, I did the same thing with sheeping Vul onto Amy , but when she voted Alison she did the same thing where most of the justification she gave for her vote was reasonable-but-not-alignment-based ('Dya is more useful than Alison' type logic) rather than actually calling Alison a wolf even if she did shade her nonpresence a bit

and that's a pattern that makes me mrrr a bit, justifying your vote with a reason that's still true if you have TMI is the sort of mistake I don't expect Chloe to prevent herself from making

Yeah, the sponge doesn't bother me that much but the "i think dya is more likely but amy is partner potential" as the justification is just ... entirely out of whack to be voting amy over dya in that case imo?

[sunbae]

dyachei:

- Seems baffled by how polarized Gavial's meta is portrayed to be. I see no earlier mentions of Gavial in their ISO.
- Disagrees with Dizzy shielding Gavial. Claims that Gavial is antitown at minimum, if not outright wolfy. Does not say Gavial is a wolf, mind you.
- Doubles down on that take. Claims they are unsure what Gavial's play means for his alignment. Is familiar with Gavial's polarized meta (comments on it in their first post about Gavial), yet still says this. Doesn't really seem convinced Gavial is mafia - or that he is town.
- Claims they are trying to determine whether Gavial is a wolf or not when responding to Alison's take that his behavior has been NAI so far. A little odd considering they are already suspecting Alison at this point (agreeing with Alison's take on Gavial while wolfreading Alison), but hey. Occam's Razor tells me this is just honest evaluation on dya's end.
- Calls Alison wolfier than Gavial. I don't see a real progression here, or any progression at all, for that matter. This post also implies dya now thinks Gavial is wolfy, so. I'm not sure if this is a thing I should seriously take issue with, but the fact dya hasn't called anyone a wolf yet (just "wolfy") doesn't sit right with me. It wasn't the case with the other ISOs I've read. Then again, I scumread some of the people I've ISOd today, and they've called people wolves like normal, so...
- Outright says that Gavial/Alison is W/V. Really weird preflip in my opinion. It seems to be predicated on the idea Alison's treatment of Gavial is TMIng Gavial town (though dya had admitted they found Gavial wolfy). I... kinda see where they're coming from, but this seems like a very bold read to make day 1, considering you are making two implications here. One: thread consensus of Gavial metareaders is wrong and Gavial is a wolfy villager. Two: Alison is mafia for her treatment of him. Correct me if that's not the viewpoint being presented. This stands out as a pretty contrarian take and towny in a vacuum, I'm just iffy about how readily dya came to that conclusion when we didn't even see Gavial's flip.
- Claims that if Alison flips V, Gavial is a wolf, independently of whatever Alison herself thought about him (the thought being that his behavior is NAI). Also has a post before this that says word for word: "because neither of you are villagery. you least of all" @ Alison and Gavial not being V/V. I think that's very towny snark right there, especially since dya's addressing Alison. If dya's a wolf addressing v!Alison, I don't think they choose this language and approach there, especially this early in the game. If dya's a wolf addressing w!Alison, I don't think this approach is made at all. Dya presents a fairly consistent perspective that there is always at least one wolf between Alison and Gavial, but while Alison's treatment of Gavial might make her a wolf (and it makes her the more likely wolf in dya's eyes), Gavial's independently wolfy enough that with v!Alison he can still be mafia. I think this perspective is fine. I disagree with the Alison scumread, since I've already explained how her treatment of Gavial doesn't make sense to me as something that comes from mafia, but I can see why dya believes what they believe here. It looks genuine to me, while also being contrarian and not the approach I'd envision dya taking if they're a wolf looking to push a misyeet.
- Maintains that the wolfread on Gavial is a meta thing and continues to push her perspective re: Gavial/Alison, I am not going to repeat it here.
- Outright tells Alison that they aren't going to take her read into account in a world where she flips green, straight into her face. I still think it's towny. It's not an overly reasonable/overly tunnely approach I could see a wolf taking. It's extremely snarky and has this underlying confidence behind it that I like. If dya's a wolf after all, well done with this push because I really think it's towny despite me disagreeing with it. I'm probably awarding dya too many townpoints for this, but yeah.
- Gavial and Alison are the bottom two reads on dya's readlist.
- Pushes Gavial instead. I'm not sure why dya's choosing to push Gavial instead of Alison here. Maybe since an Alison d1 yeet isn't happening.
- Gets into a scuffle with Gavial with implied personal insults involved. I think that's also villagery. I think a wolf wouldn't take this approach against someone they are currently misyeeting and do it without qualms. Dya barrels out with this pretty much straight out the gate, not after Gavial annoyed them or anything.
- Tries to reconcile their Alison and Gavial reads.
- Swaps to KZA at the end, didn't really see a visible progression there. Potentially justifiable by using the logic "I now think Alison is wolfier and if Alison is W then Gavial is V and I need to vote off the Gavial wagon," but I don't see any sign in the thread that would explain why dya switched their vote there. Them voting Alison at the start of day 2 seems consistent with their POV at least.

Overall, while dya's POV has seemed pretty narrow so far, I actually like the way they are approaching the Alison push even though I disagree with it. I think their treatment of Alison/Gavial has been fine and decently inquisitive. I can see how people wolfread their approach considering the tone dya's taking, but I think the snark and aggression where it doesn't exactly seem warranted is village indicative. I could see people going "Vulgard why are you townreading a bad tone" but it's not a point I'm willing to debate because I just do.

I also don't see anything on dya's end that would directly indicate w!dya's partnered with Amy - outside of dya calling Amy their top town, I suppose, but it could be taken both ways.

I think dya's a villager.

place your bets friends: wolf talking about villager or wolf talking about teammate?

[Arete]

tfw someone claims a redcheck on your top townread and you keep waiting for them to be super wolfy so you can bury them and they keep making villagery posts

Sunbae do you absolutely 100 percent hardclaim that if you are a villager you are specifically the Jailkeeper who jailkept specifically Vulgard, and definitely didn't, like, change your action and forget or something

[sunbae]

I have 48 posts after this one so I'ma stop for now so I can see how the thread develops.

I feel pretty good about the general thread consensus. I think in worlds where Dya is not a wolf, SPF is one but I'm at like a 85/15 odds wise there and the only reason SPF is there is due to the vulgard stuff which, who knows, might be bad due to "been werewolfing for like 5 hrs straight brain melted" reasons. I do not think dya/spf make sense together.

This day didn't really go the way I really hoped for but I think all things considered I'm ok with how I handled it? Maybe I should have let marl's stuff go and see who spewed where but I didn't want people to spend half their posts on an incorrect pr situation. Idk.

It's been fun tho, much <3 and see ya tomorrow

Side note: played poker for the first time really since black friday a decade ago and got third in an mtt. its uh, not changed that much lol. $$$$ hype today was a good day. Hope you all have a good one tomorrow

[sunbae]

tfw someone claims a redcheck on your top townread and you keep waiting for them to be super wolfy so you can bury them and they keep making villagery posts

Sunbae do you absolutely 100 percent hardclaim that if you are a villager you are specifically the Jailkeeper who jailkept specifically Vulgard, and definitely didn't, like, change your action and forget or something

100% never unclaiming, never rescinding, i am a jailkeeper that jailkept vulgard overnight

[nutella]

place your bets friends: wolf talking about villager or wolf talking about teammate?

won't pretend I'm not confbiased, but think the latter. it's a lot of iioa plus concessions that dya's stuff can come from a wolf but always landing on the village read side for weakish reasons

[sunbae]

One final post for this evening: we have a ton of information now. Eod1 was v/w discussions, mid day 2 was v/v wagons, eod2 was v/?. There should be a lot to churn through. Who seemed to care about figuring out who the wolves were, especially on day 2? How did wagons form and dissipate? We have one wolf we can really focus on as a thread driver/excellent poster and one low posting wolf that other wolves needed to talk about (especially compared to low poster Gavriel!).

You know all those posts you had about meta reads and previous games and how well you read others? Now you get to do that with actual, factual information as supplemental evidence. Let's iron this out, tighten up, get that grind work done, and close this game out so we can get that little Serotonin feel good for a job well done. Box the wolves in, have confidence. We got this <3

[Arete]

...if Vulgard turns out to be a wolf somehow

which I still don't believe

but

if

then Outed Wolf is never ever ever a wolf

like

is his godread on you as good as his godread on gavial?

his godread on me is real and supported by an extensive history of games as both V/V and V/W

much like his extensive history of games with seth eh?

I'm sort of mrrr about how Outed Wolf is trying to discredit townreads on me/reasons to townread me without actually pushing for me to get killed (or even really expressing more than a slight scumread on me)

it kind of feels like he's trying to make sure that I'm a viable push for the future but doesn't want to get his hands dirty pushing me now

LOL

hilarious post - i said i thought you were a villager yesterday, the post is making light of vulgard not you

alright, what was your motivation behind discrediting Vul's reads?

... because he was wrong? he spent like 80 posts yesterday saying how much of a gavial god reader he was and that we couldnt let gavial slip away and we had to kill gavial

with his EXTENSIVE history of catching gavial and hes NEVER BEEN WRONG BEFORE

and he was wrong.

W R O N G
R
O
N
G

INCORRECT

NOT RIGHT

so i gave him a bit of shit for it

no one treats their partner like this, no one makes a show of rubbing their partner's face in their "wrong" reads in this way -- not because it would be too harsh for distancing, or whatever, but because the motivation isn't to distance, it's to make fun of him, and that's not something that makes sense to do to your wolfmate

I think I'm explaining this badly

but

[nutella]

arete i... how can you still think sunbae is not town lol

[Amy]

this reminds me of when i was a wolf in a mountainous game a few years back and smartbomb (a villager) literally selfvoted to prevent me from being voted out

granted it was a mountainous game so there were no mechanics involved

but still

[Arete]

arete i... how can you still think sunbae is not town lol

...he's been very villagery today, I'm not denying that, just.

weh.

at this point I'm just waiting for Vul to show up. which will probably not be for several hours, so this might not be a good plan.

[Arete]

ftr I strongly suspect that Chloe either literally completely forgot about the game or is intentionally choosing not to post

which in the latter scenario would be super wolf-AI for her (regardless of Vulgard's alignment, actually)

[outed wolf]

There is a world where the wolves shot vulgard and didn't RB Amy but idk it's not optimal at all for wolves to do that lol

[Amy]

There is a world where the wolves shot vulgard and didn't RB Amy but idk it's not optimal at all for wolves to do that lol

im not even thinking about this world until vulgard comes back

[Dyslexicon]

What is the mech? Is Vulgard the mech?

I swear, I was going into the day with a heightened sense of Dya/Vulgard here.

Vulgard danced around the Dya/Alison situation, town reading both, I think? But also backtracking slightly on both?

I also thought Dya's EoD was janky and didn't seem like a town waiting for what they thought would be a scum flip. That's a feeling.

Also, I want to be exonerated for being a Zack H8r, I think. Cause a lot of the continued suspicion after the initial was/is me wanting to be right, and it's not a good motivation.

Also also, I'm going to travel by train for some hours later this day. That's pretty much the perfect time to read more and get more into the game again.

[Marluxion]

in post number one, vulgard asks me a pointed question about whether or not i am still shielding c4

in post number two, vulgard says that he understands why people want to turboyeet dya, but that there's something "else" he wants to discuss first. this is clearly implying that vulgard has a guilty on someone that isnt dyachei

in post number three, vulgard asks marl if he's seeing what he's seeing

in post number four, (and this is the most important part), vulgard gives marluxion the option to claim for him

I don't know

I didn't see Marl and Vulgard's chat, Marl says that Vul seemed to be not scumreading Sunbae but I don't know what he actually said about them

It's also possible that he jailkept c4 but in that case I have literally no idea what Sunbae is doing. The theory about Vul jailkeeping Sunbae was mostly me trying to rationalize Sunbae's behavior and it's possible that I came up with the wrong rationalization.

doesn't the language of vulgard's post toward marluxion (the one where he says: "you might not even need to claim for me") imply that his guilty was on someone that already had a lot of scrutiny? how the hell does that fit in a world where vulgard investigated someone like sunbae?

Bronana had just voted Sunbae, in P#2683. C4 was under suspicion at that time but actually didn't have any votes, Sunbae and Dya were the only people to have votes before Marl claimed.

Sunbae was in his Poe but he was actively surprised when I said sunbae was near the bottom of mine

[Vulgard]

Okay.

1. I hardclaim VT. Unless someone else CC's this, Sunbae is just the jailkeeper. Besides, the solving they've been doing off my red flip (wrong, but we'll get to that later) looks like they genuinely believe they have a red on me and not like a wolf trying to exploit the no-kill to get me killed.
2. I was saved from a kill last night. That's the only explanation. I have no idea why the wolves didn't roleblock Amy. It's possible they didn't think they needed to, or it was WIFOM, or something else. In theory, a "no movement" result from Amy on a wolf would slightly improve said wolf's position.
3. The Marl and c4 thing you are completely misinterpreting. Marl also misunderstood me. We did claim jailkeeper to each other, but I thought I botched it and decided to go with "believe it or don't believe it" - type of posting with Marl in our night chat. I did think it might be useful to fake claim JK in case he turned out to be a wolf; I also considered softing JK today to better sell it. I've tried the whole game not to spew myself VT. At no point was I trying to soft a red on c4. The reason I asked SPF about her shield on c4 had to do with my reads, some of which I discussed overnight with Marl. My read on c4, I did discuss with him. I ended up thinking c4's posts were almost as bad as dya's and he didn't even try to save Alison when his top wolf suspect, dya, was pushing there. I thought that looked pretty terrible with Alison flipping V and I was going to push that. I asked SPF about her shield on c4 because I would find it suspicious if she were still shielding him given all that, and me and Marl both agreed to some levels of paranoia about SPF (though Marl straight up thinks she can be a wolf).
4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

I am town. I am not CCing Sunbae; the real JK should do that if he's fake. I don't know why Amy wasn't roleblocked, but I know I was attacked last night.

Stop solving around my red flip, because I am town and Sunbae got a save on me. That's a clear, not a redcheck. Though I understand why you think it's a redcheck, at least consider my point of view and try to solve with me. Not AROUND me, and certainly not around my red flip.

And next time, please let me explain myself instead of instantly making assumptions. Especially when I've barely even posted.