PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Syn is replacing @Chloe who had replaced Tangrowth. Please do not discuss replacements. Thanks.

[outed wolf]

Syn more like bin

Gotem

[Amy]

well that answers that i suppose

[Arete]

heya Syn

have you had the chance to read the thread?

also if you're the Jailkeeper you need to hardclaim today and claim your target, I don't really think that's likely but

[Vulgard]

The TanChlyn wagon should not exist.

[nutella]

I'm... starting to believe in the visor wolf world lmao

like ngl all his posts today have sucked and fit with an agenda

I'm really trying to consider all possible sides of this and atm feeling like it could be the missing puzzle piece

maybe I'm crazy and will change my mind again in a few minutes

[outed wolf]

Lmao

Nutella stop

[Marluxion]

[VOTE: Vulgard] aubergine
Ngl. I kinda think Nutella has some partner equity with Vul actually

[nutella]

Spoiler: show

Well, the PoE you're presenting does contain an outed wolf, so I'm sheeping this.

And I also have an avatar Kylemii likes. Which is the best argument.

You're voting for an outed wolf or for an anime girl. Which one would you choose as a villager?

Sunbae's avatar is the thing that concerns me the most in this game.

when you write posts in this tone it scares me

please stop scaring me

This yeah lol

we prob do chop vulgard today after all

I still want to do something about chloe/dya though aa

[Arete]

???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

[Amy]

rabbit give nutella her account back

[nutella]

???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

yes lol

I basically change my mind reading each post

[c4e5g3d5]

???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

Yes but also read my sig.

[Syn]

heya Syn

have you had the chance to read the thread?

also if you're the Jailkeeper you need to hardclaim today and claim your target, I don't really think that's likely but

I watched the first five minutes of the last course video and have read exactly zero posts

[nutella]

[VOTE: vulgard] aubergine

I don't have a brain so I'm borrowing sunbae's

[nutella]

Ugh replacements bad

[Syn]

what up girl gamers

[Syn]

oh

[Syn]

I see how it is nutella

[nutella]

Are you town syn

[Syn]

[VOTE: nutella, the garbage sandwich spread] aubergine

[Syn]

Are you town syn

i'm shy i can't tell you

[Amy]

what up girl gamers

[Syn]

i am afraid of what the bucket is for

[nutella]

If syn is a wolf I'm back to null on dya though they can be a teammate who shifted hard into bussing today (and is still prob with vul?)

If syn is town dya is just a wolf

[Amy]

i am afraid of what the bucket is for

my feelings

[nutella]

Dizzys confidence on the marl world makes me want to not dismiss that either

But it prob is also the visor world

Like visor/marl/dya works imo

hopefully it's just vulgard instead

[Syn]

is visor outed wolf

lol

[bronana]

Dizzys confidence on the marl world makes me want to not dismiss that either

But it prob is also the visor world

Like visor/marl/dya works imo

hopefully it's just vulgard instead

how does visor w/w with dya "work"? idgi. i don't know about him with marl either, visor kept shading marl when people were clearing him in a way that seemed weird if they're bros

is visor outed wolf

lol

yes

[staypositivefriend]

4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

@Marluxion - is this paragraph from vulgard a realistic description of the chat that you had with him overnight? do you believe that vulgard could have reasonably believed that you and him were picking up on zack's "red check" on sunbae?

for this reasoning to be true, it means that vulgard expected you to do the mental gymnastics of picking up on zack's red soft on sunbae, believing that amy was a wolf who was getting CC'd by zack, and believing that sunbae/amy were a wolf team, OR vulgard expected you to deduce that his JK claim was fake and that zack was the real JK who was claiming a redcheck - instead of making the far more logical assumption that vulgard simply wanted you to believe that he had a guilty on c4

[staypositivefriend]

when i saw vulgard's long and impassioned defense last night, i just kinda went ""w/e, let's just resolve dyachei first and see what type of clarity that provides", but i do agree that the mechanics point plainly to vulgard probably just being a wolf. there's a part of me that wants to believe him just because he's good at doing the politician esque strategy of saying a whole lot of words without very much substance

[staypositivefriend]

if syn doesnt become obvious town within his next couple of posts then he's a wolf

[Syn]

if syn doesnt become obvious town within his next couple of posts then he's a wolf

help how do i obvious town

[Syn]

is there any use in ISOing my previous two slot holders?

[Dyslexicon]

Dizzys confidence on the marl world makes me want to not dismiss that either

But it prob is also the visor world

Like visor/marl/dya works imo

hopefully it's just vulgard instead

The confidence is gone

[Dyslexicon]

It’s a Syn!

Um, I’m just going to sheep Sunbae and Amy

[Dyslexicon]

Vul/Dya/Nut called it

[Dyslexicon]

Oh right.

Imagine Arete town Vul wolf.

Is this like when Hally hard shielded me all game when they last was town in a game I was scum?

What’s the story between the two? It’s a bit bizarre

[nutella]

Oh right.

Imagine Arete town Vul wolf.

Is this like when Hally hard shielded me all game when they last was town in a game I was scum?

What’s the story between the two? It’s a bit bizarre

I mean even arete has shown some concern with vul's recent posts so I'm hoping they're just wrong

[Vulgard]

Kill me and kill Visor next, game's still winnable. I'm not going to post anymore unless something wild happens. I'm tired.

[nutella]

if visor v vulgard w, sunbae simply goat
if visor w vulgard v, sunbae goat by accident for picking the right targets for the opposite reasons
thats the fun of jailkeepers lol

[Arete]

I'm not going to post anymore unless something wild happens.

^aaaaa

[nutella]

it's ok arete happens to everyone

[sunbae]

It would be helpful to hear who you think Outed Wolf could be/isn't teamed with, who you think was opportunistic in coming at you, discuss Dya a bit more (you were pretty defensive about them yesterday in that wall I quoted), talk a bit about some of the more uncertain reads like SPF, etc.

While the situation is frustrating regardless of your role, I hope for a big stint of solving as we get closer rather than shutting down. Like, if you are town you have the best view of the gamestate moving forward. You have an extensive chat with Marl, what is his alignment imo? Do you feel like Bronana/Outed Wolf are teamed? We've got a tangy/chloe/syn slot that has been hard to get a read on due to it bouncing around so much, so whatcha landing on there?

[Arete]

it's ok arete happens to everyone

if he's actually a wolf here I'm going to cry

I still think he's town but like 85 percent town rather than like 99 percent town and almost entirely because of days 1-2

[staypositivefriend]

4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

@Marluxion - is this paragraph from vulgard a realistic description of the chat that you had with him overnight? do you believe that vulgard could have reasonably believed that you and him were picking up on zack's "red check" on sunbae?

for this reasoning to be true, it means that vulgard expected you to do the mental gymnastics of picking up on zack's red soft on sunbae, believing that amy was a wolf who was getting CC'd by zack, and believing that sunbae/amy were a wolf team, OR vulgard expected you to deduce that his JK claim was fake and that zack was the real JK who was claiming a redcheck - instead of making the far more logical assumption that vulgard simply wanted you to believe that he had a guilty on c4

^^ignoring mechanics completely, this is a point that i would like to hear more from marluxion about (and from vulgard, if he wants)

vulgard's story seems directly at odds with what marluxion told us about their chat during the night, and it's for that reason that i want to hear as many details as i possibly can about it

[staypositivefriend]

like, if we live in a bizzaro world where vulgard is a villager, then it's incredibly important that we establish right now if marluxion simply distrusts vulgard, or if he's outright claiming that vulgard is lying about how things went down. i want to hear marl explain the dynamic between vulgard and himself with as much detail as he possibly can, because it will become extremely relevant to future discussion in a worst case scenario world where vulgard is a villager

[Vulgard]

like, if we live in a bizzaro world where vulgard is a villager, then it's incredibly important that we establish right now if marluxion simply distrusts vulgard, or if he's outright claiming that vulgard is lying about how things went down. i want to hear marl explain the dynamic between vulgard and himself with as much detail as he possibly can, because it will become extremely relevant to future discussion in a worst case scenario world where vulgard is a villager

Should I feel insulted?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quick update since the poll timer is screwy: Day 3 ends in just over 24 hours.

[Arete]

I think if I read Outed Wolf's posts from the specific perspective where he's the wolf roleblocker who got jailkept trying to block Amy N1, and whose team tried to kill Vul N2, they're more or less exactly what I would expect to see in that world (particularly if Marl is also a villager)

Spoiler: show

(okay you can)

Vulgards an interesting one

It's possible wolves shot vulgard to jk dodge so they could kill Amy unprotected tomorrow

But then you RB Amy

So unlikely I guess

C4 vulgard dya work for y'all?

ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul

this is horrendous pal

in more serious news i generally believe sunbaes claim but we'll see what people say

i think dya is a wolf in most worlds and probably didnt carry the kill in case they were blocked (which would be a reasonable assumption i think)

sunbaes progression on vulgard is perfectly followable, his progression on me is perfectly followable

i think c4 wasnt outed but made outed wolf posts anyway (we've all done the same shit he did when weve been outed as a wolf)

dya/c4/vulgard makes sense to me

i think arete is ego attached to ready vul correctly but they can die anyway if wrong

i mean its just vulgard/c4/dya right?

i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

i dont think vulgard was intending for it to be a proper claim

i think he was doing it for town cred raisins

Arete just going down with the ship or?

There is a world where the wolves shot vulgard and didn't RB Amy but idk it's not optimal at all for wolves to do that lol

Hmm. Expecting Amy to be blocked from the jailkeep is theoretically viable

Vulgards still a weird kind of kill, but now that you mention it it is a possibility

It's definitely not what I'd have done as a wolf though

what if: marl w thought vul was the jk

shot him

sunbae accidentally saved the day

Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???

I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

I mean either vulgard is a wolf who got blocked

Or he's a villager who got saved

If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

We just have to decide if we think vulgard is wolf RB that got blocked (most likely wolf role if he's a wolf) which is why Amy isn't blocked

Or if marluxion shot vulgard because he thought he claimed jailkeeper and potentially roleblocked him too (cause didn't RB Amy)

Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

Either way there's a wolf in vul/marl

Sure that is also possible.

I think I lean toward marl being a wolf rn but I need to sleep on it and throw some darts with others on it a bit

Vulgards posting where he goes nowhere with 2000 words isn't exactly inspiring confidence

I mean I just can't imagine shooting vulgard here as a wolf unless I was super super super confident he was jk

And marl has the reason to be confident

Nobody was listening to vulgard lol

I'm tired as hell and gonna save some posts

I don't buy any of the theatrics and I don't buy the wolves shooting vulgard as a random pr hunt

See y'all later

im fine killing vulgard

i think if we're assuming optimal play by the wolves then vulgard is a wolf plain and simple.

er, vulgard and i can both be villas

(also id never not rb amy lol cmon)

look sunbae, its possible wolves made a bad play

i dont think its super likely but the world exists

i just dont wanna get shrug killed tomorrow in case you are wrong cuz im a villabro

like essentially he goes 'yeah, Vul is just a wolf here, also his posts today are wolfy and Arete defending him is wolfy. we should kill him. technically he could be a villager though? but he's not a villager. also there's no way a wolf would have made the sort of mechanically bad play that would have been necessary for Vul to be a villager here.'

and then when the Marl thing comes up he's like 'yeah actually Marl or Vul definitely has a wolf. for sure. the alternative where wolves are mechanically incompetent is pretty ridiculous.'

and then when the specific he-is-roleblocker-who-targeted-Amy-N1 world comes up he's like 'wait no if Vul is a villager then maybe the wolves are just mechanically incompetent. you shouldn't kill me just because he flipped villa.'

which like

'wolves could be mechanically incompetent and you shouldn't kill me just because Vul flipped town' is a perspective that makes sense for a villager to have

but he was much less willing to believe the 'wolves did something mechanically incompetent' theory when it was two other players (Marl + Vul) who people were suggesting might be domed together than when it was him and Vulgard -- if it's a plausible theory then it should be a plausible theory no matter who the non-Vul player is

and despite expressing the belief that even independent of mechanics, considering specifically Vul's posts today Vul is likely to flip scum, he seems legitimately worried about the possibility of him flipping town, which feels weird with his PoV

also I think there's very likely to be a wolf in Vul/Outed Wolf based on the fact that Sunbae is the only one actually pushing for a world where they have to be V/W, whereas if they were V/V it would make sense for wolves to want to encourage that dichotomy (which no one has been doing)

[VOTE: Outed Wolf] aubergine