PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [END]

[outed wolf]

you should probably get some sort of legacy down fwiw

[c4e5g3d5]

does anyone want to dispute any of my clears (besides c4 disagreeing with Dizzy, I already know he disagrees with Dizzy)

All the other clears look good
Will look into the spf stuff but I generally think she's been obvious town

[dyachei]

I feel like Im wasting my time looking at vulgard's iso...which i think only arete is also doing?

[Marluxion]

I feel like Im wasting my time looking at vulgard's iso...which i think only arete is also doing?

have not looked at his iso yet, i'm focused on the neighborhood for now since only i can see it

[c4e5g3d5]

I still haven't ISO'd either flipped wolf

[dyachei]

I feel like Im wasting my time looking at vulgard's iso...which i think only arete is also doing?

have not looked at his iso yet, i'm focused on the neighborhood for now since only i can see it

this is fair. i meant like everyone else - they've all made up their mind on me

[Syn]

i hardclaim tracker

so you saw me visit your mom last night, then?

lol

[Amy]

you should probably get some sort of legacy down fwiw

i'm gonna

[bronana]

i hardclaim tracker

so you saw me visit your mom last night, then?

[staypositivefriend]

a brief summary of how everyone in this game approached vulgard before he got guiltied:

(typical disclaimer about this not being analysis - i'm focusing on getting the basic facts and the interesting moments written down for easier reference and to form a better understanding of the game as a whole. i have deliberately left out some posts and some of my own personal feelings about these progressions)

arete: arete mentions on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 40#p797440 that they have a secret special reason to townread vulgard that is almost “unfair” for them to out, and they expand upon that on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 56#p797456. arete starts to firmly and confidently townread vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 52#p799252. goes out of their way to get vulgard to try to read them on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 32#p799332. makes a “towncase” for vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 96#p800196. crafts a convoluted theory for why vulgard is a villager upon seeing sunbae’s guilty on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 38#p805038. continues hard defending vulgard around https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 44#p805144. says that vulgard is 99% a villager on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 75#p805375, but shows self-doubt

bronana: acts baffled about one of vulgard’s early reads on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 01#p797401. puts vulgard near the top of his townleans on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 33#p798633. (i’d like to hear a little more from zack about this - what inspired him to townread vulgard after he was so baffled by vulgard’s reasoning for townreading sunbae?). has a brief exchange with vulgard about his read on dizzy on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 56#p799356. another softball interaction on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 28#p799828. asks if we’re sure if vulgard is town on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 78#p802078 when he’s calling out the “consensus POE” for being wack. reacts to vulgard’s suspicion of him on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 03#p802603. townreads vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 75#p802975 because their solving seems “cromulent” and because of arete’s godread. shows some concern about the vulgard/arete dynamic on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 35#p803235. downgrades arete and vulgard to their own separate tiers on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 83#p803583

c4: says that sunbae and vulgard are always town on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 42#p797542. has a brief exchange with vulgard about his read on me around https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 10#p797610. more softball interaction regarding c4’s read on dya on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 05#p803705.

dyachei: interrogates vulgard a bit on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 01#p799501. puts vulgard as a village lean on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p800165. has some short exchanges with vulgard about outed wolf and alison on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 89#p802389. more interaction on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 56#p802656. continues to put vulgard near the top of their townreads on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 65#p803965. another exchange on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 61#p804161.

dyslexicon: responds to vulgard’s early read on him on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 11#p798211. presents the possibility of a vulgard/dyachei wolf team on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 39#p803139, but ends up townreading vulgard regardless. expands on the interaction that made them feel that way on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 36#p803236

marluxion: some soft interaction on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 74#p797374. declares that vulgard is town on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 66#p797466. consults vulgard’s advice for reading arete on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 61#p799461 - i think this is p villagery. expresses self-consciouness about vulgard reading his posts on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 09#p802109, i think this is towny too lol. shows some concern about vulgard on https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 26#p802326. i’m dropping the analysis here because i think that vulgard straight up just spewed marluxion as town multiple times

nutella: townreads vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 53#p797953. piggybacks off of vulgard’s confidence about gav being a wolf to supplement her own wolfread on him (https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 58#p799858). puts vulgard as her number one townread on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 92#p800192 . shows support for vulgard and backs up his read on alison on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 63#p802463. has a fairly terse exchange with vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 49#p802749.

outed wolf: outed wolf makes fun of vulgard for incorrectly having a godread on gavial on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 67#p801167. seconds vulgard’s concerns about tangrowth on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 83#p799383. townleans vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 15#p800215. explains the reasoning on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 87#p801987.

tangrowth/chloe/syn: tangrowth townreads vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 13#p798313 while still showing some cautiousness about him. interesting interaction on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 48#p799748. more interaction on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 82#p800182. chloe says that vulgard is almost definitely town on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 54#p801154 (this read might be more relevant since i believe chloe has experience w/vulgard?). gives an explanation of vulgard’s wolfgame on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 79#p801979. reiterates her good thoughts about vulgard on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 87#p803287

[staypositivefriend]

feel free to ask me for my individual thoughts on any of the progressions that i listed above. i want to write a larger wallpost breaking down my feelings about all of them, but i simply do not have the time or the mental energy ATM

[Syn]

what in the good god hell is that post

[staypositivefriend]

what in the good god hell is that post

it's sorcery

[bronana]

puts vulgard near the top of his townleans on https://mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic ... 33#p798633. (i’d like to hear a little more from zack about this - what inspired him to townread vulgard after he was so baffled by vulgard’s reasoning for townreading sunbae?).

The bafflement was about vulgard's townread on marl, not sunbae. It was a truly ridiculous reason.

a d1 readslist from me is more accurately "who i'm down to kill today" than real reads. Vulgard was plainly putting in effort to solve, even if I didn't agree with him, lots of other people were saying he was towny, good enough for me. There's a limit on how much I can truly delve into each player in the early days of a 17er, which is part of why the picture becomes much clearer as the number of living players shrinks. (Also why it's so key to have a good d1 as scum, first impressions are huge and the momentum of being widely townread d1 carries forward in big ways the rest of the game.)

On d2 the only reason I townread him at all was literally arete's supposed godread, and even then they singled me out when voicing displeasure about people doubting said godread.

[bronana]

i said "what on earth. how does that make marl a villager?" so you thinking it was about sunbae makes me a little paranoid about how closely you were actually reading these interactions

[staypositivefriend]

i said "what on earth. how does that make marl a villager?" so you thinking it was about sunbae makes me a little paranoid about how closely you were actually reading these interactions

yeah, that was just a misread of the context on my part. i saw that vulgard had called sunbae a villager for something on "the last page", so when you reacted by saying "how does that make him a villager??", my brain filled in the person you were referring to as sunbae, even though it made an equal amount of sense being about marluxion

fwiw i actually didnt read the context of each of these posts extremely closely, because that wasn't really the point. i was more interested in getting a baseline idea about how everyone interacted w/vulgard

[bronana]

can you post a readslist spf?

[staypositivefriend]

can you post a readslist spf?

amy - clear

arete - i actually have been pondering the theory that arete/vulgard are teamed quite a lot within the last ~24 hours or so. the fact that arete's townread on vulgard was initially predicted on the idea that vulgar did something that he would "NEVER" do as mafia made me wonder if the two of them worked together to take advantage of their meta on each other. the way that arete reacted to vulgard's claim and their slow spiral into acceptance of vulgard being a wolf makes me lean on this world being more likely than not

bronana - i like your progression on vulgard and arete. i felt like i could easily track how your perception of the dynamic between them shifted as each day went on - you decided to blindly trust them on d1, and then you showed more skepticism on d2 (going as far as to put them in their own separate tiers), and your reaction to vulgard being guiltied on d3 felt like a natural buildup of the concern that you've had about the dynamic since d2 (this is also something that i've noticed reflected in your treatment of arete today). i think your progression on KZA is fine. i would lean on you being a villager

c4 - starting to think that c4 could be a wolf and that i'm just sipping on Dumb B*tch Juice, because his posts today have been underwhelming even if i've felt that they weren't "optimal" posts for c4 to make in this position as a wolf. i'm wondering if he's deflated because he knows that his team is about to lose. upper end of my POE

dyachei - i think they're a wolf, and if we live in a world where they're a villager, i need to find out sooner than later for my own clarity. their push on alison consistently felt like it was represented with the intention to make alison look bad moreso than an authentic suspicion toward alison. their analysis has felt more like a wolf throwing stuff at the wall moreso than a villager gradually putting the pieces together - i can't help but continue to think of the exchange i had with dyachei earlier in the day where they shaded me by saying that vulgard had "finally" given me a mention in his ISO, even though the post that dyachei was referencing was vulgard's 10th post in the game, and even though vulgard had mentioned me 15 times up until that point. it's a point that i said i wouldn't harp on too much, but it reminds me overall of how dyachei's solving in this game has felt fairly "stuck" and inauthentic to me. i'll feel bad if they're a villager but i think they're most likely a wolf

dyslexicon - him bringing up the possibility of vulgard/dya being teamed looks mildly good for him now, but it looks even better in a world where dyachei is a wolf. his progression on KZA is one that's fairly unlikely for wolf!dizzy to take, IMO. his posting has generally been villagery even though nothing has really blown me away

marluxion - i think that marl is spewed town by vulgard a thousand times over. i'm gonna laugh so hard if the two of them are wolves together. marluxion made a point of trying to "work with" vulgard so many times throughout his ISO, and it really felt like vulgard was exploiting their dynamic to manipulate him and pocket him

nutella - i still think that nutella is a villager, although i'm lacking in the clearing interactions from either of the flipped wolves that i was hoping would ~definitively~ clear her. she's playing the most tonally pure game i have ever seen from her if she is a wolf, and her reads have been bouncing back and forth so rapidly in a way that i know nutella struggles to replicate as a wolf (particularly, the way that nutella got paranoid of me, and then gradually talked herself into wolfreading over the course of a few hours is the kind of silent, mostly internal progression that i think is indicative of nutella genuinely trying to solve)

outed wolf: there's apparently a strong consensus that outed wolf can not be partnered with vulgard, but i honestly haven't gotten there yet. i still think he's more likely to be a villager than not, largely because i trust sunbae to have read him more correctly than i will, and he's had a bunch of micro moments that i've found villagery even if holistically i dont feel they add up to much

syn: townread on dyachei doesn't make any sense. wolfread on outed wolf doesn't make very much sense either. feels both deflated and attached and entirely too confident for someone in that type of position. i've been circling back and forth about whether or not his "final" posts before he got super deflated are villagery or not, but his overall perspective doesn't make sense to me, and chloe/tan both had some interactions with vulgard that pinged me a bit

[staypositivefriend]

so like,

town: amy, marluxion, nutella

townlean: bronana/dyslexicon/outed wolf (wolf is probably here if i'm misreading someone)

POE: dyachei/syn/c4/arete

[staypositivefriend]

that feels like an unspicy readslist, but that is genuinely where my brain is at rn. my current feeling is "see what dyachei flips and go from there"

[dyachei]

can you post a readslist spf?

amy - clear

arete - i actually have been pondering the theory that arete/vulgard are teamed quite a lot within the last ~24 hours or so. the fact that arete's townread on vulgard was initially predicted on the idea that vulgar did something that he would "NEVER" do as mafia made me wonder if the two of them worked together to take advantage of their meta on each other. the way that arete reacted to vulgard's claim and their slow spiral into acceptance of vulgard being a wolf makes me lean on this world being more likely than not

bronana - i like your progression on vulgard and arete. i felt like i could easily track how your perception of the dynamic between them shifted as each day went on - you decided to blindly trust them on d1, and then you showed more skepticism on d2 (going as far as to put them in their own separate tiers), and your reaction to vulgard being guiltied on d3 felt like a natural buildup of the concern that you've had about the dynamic since d2 (this is also something that i've noticed reflected in your treatment of arete today). i think your progression on KZA is fine. i would lean on you being a villager

c4 - starting to think that c4 could be a wolf and that i'm just sipping on Dumb B*tch Juice, because his posts today have been underwhelming even if i've felt that they weren't "optimal" posts for c4 to make in this position as a wolf. i'm wondering if he's deflated because he knows that his team is about to lose. upper end of my POE

dyachei - i think they're a wolf, and if we live in a world where they're a villager, i need to find out sooner than later for my own clarity. their push on alison consistently felt like it was represented with the intention to make alison look bad moreso than an authentic suspicion toward alison. their analysis has felt more like a wolf throwing stuff at the wall moreso than a villager gradually putting the pieces together - i can't help but continue to think of the exchange i had with dyachei earlier in the day where they shaded me by saying that vulgard had "finally" given me a mention in his ISO, even though the post that dyachei was referencing was vulgard's 10th post in the game, and even though vulgard had mentioned me 15 times up until that point. it's a point that i said i wouldn't harp on too much, but it reminds me overall of how dyachei's solving in this game has felt fairly "stuck" and inauthentic to me. i'll feel bad if they're a villager but i think they're most likely a wolf

dyslexicon - him bringing up the possibility of vulgard/dya being teamed looks mildly good for him now, but it looks even better in a world where dyachei is a wolf. his progression on KZA is one that's fairly unlikely for wolf!dizzy to take, IMO. his posting has generally been villagery even though nothing has really blown me away

marluxion - i think that marl is spewed town by vulgard a thousand times over. i'm gonna laugh so hard if the two of them are wolves together. marluxion made a point of trying to "work with" vulgard so many times throughout his ISO, and it really felt like vulgard was exploiting their dynamic to manipulate him and pocket him

nutella - i still think that nutella is a villager, although i'm lacking in the clearing interactions from either of the flipped wolves that i was hoping would ~definitively~ clear her. she's playing the most tonally pure game i have ever seen from her if she is a wolf, and her reads have been bouncing back and forth so rapidly in a way that i know nutella struggles to replicate as a wolf (particularly, the way that nutella got paranoid of me, and then gradually talked herself into wolfreading over the course of a few hours is the kind of silent, mostly internal progression that i think is indicative of nutella genuinely trying to solve)

outed wolf: there's apparently a strong consensus that outed wolf can not be partnered with vulgard, but i honestly haven't gotten there yet. i still think he's more likely to be a villager than not, largely because i trust sunbae to have read him more correctly than i will, and he's had a bunch of micro moments that i've found villagery even if holistically i dont feel they add up to much

syn: townread on dyachei doesn't make any sense. wolfread on outed wolf doesn't make very much sense either. feels both deflated and attached and entirely too confident for someone in that type of position. i've been circling back and forth about whether or not his "final" posts before he got super deflated are villagery or not, but his overall perspective doesn't make sense to me, and chloe/tan both had some interactions with vulgard that pinged me a bit

clearly leaving out i found posts that looked good for you, too

[staypositivefriend]

also, i meant to say that arete's reaction to vulgard being outed made me feel that them being teamed was ~less~ likely than not, but that the overall trajectory of their progression on each other makes me feel so uneasy that i cant comfortably remove them from my POE

[staypositivefriend]

that's true, dya, but you immediately followed it up with this post:

ugh then he starts treating spf like a villager

which implied to me that you came out of vulgard's interactions w/me feeling lukewarm/uncertain of yourself, which is probably the positioning that a wolf who wanted to keep me in the POE would have, no?

[dyachei]

that's true, dya, but you immediately followed it up with this post:

ugh then he starts treating spf like a villager

which implied to me that you came out of vulgard's interactions w/me feeling lukewarm/uncertain of yourself, which is probably the positioning that a wolf who wanted to keep me in the POE would have, no?

If I were a wolf and there were people already suspecting you I would have pushed you today

[staypositivefriend]

that's true, dya, but you immediately followed it up with this post:

ugh then he starts treating spf like a villager

which implied to me that you came out of vulgard's interactions w/me feeling lukewarm/uncertain of yourself, which is probably the positioning that a wolf who wanted to keep me in the POE would have, no?

If I were a wolf and there were people already suspecting you I would have pushed you today

mm well, do you have a read on me atm? do you still think it's syn/c4? i recall that you were feeling doubtful about c4 earlier

[dyachei]

I still think it's syn/c4. if it's not c4, it might be you

[Arete]

I still think it's syn/c4. if it's not c4, it might be you

what if it's not Syn (but is c4)

or do you think Syn is ~lock wolf

[c4e5g3d5]

The Arete/Vulgard dynamic was way too pockety to be w/w don't even try.

[dyachei]

I still think it's syn/c4. if it's not c4, it might be you

what if it's not Syn (but is c4)

or do you think Syn is ~lock wolf

i think there's a very high likelihood of it being syn

I'd be shocked if he's not a wolf

[staypositivefriend]

I still think it's syn/c4. if it's not c4, it might be you

let's say that we live in some wacky, crazy world where you, me, syn, c4 are all flipped villagers

where do you look next?

[dyachei]

maybe dizzy, maybe arete

[dyachei]

but Im heading out of my poe now

[bronana]

Can we yeet scum tonight guys.

I'm finally home, semi-naked, laptop resting on my moist, muscular thighs, ready to up my game by 14.6%.


Vulgard's ISO next...

[outed wolf]

c4 legit any kind of solving by you would go some way to making me be willing to village read you

[staypositivefriend]

anyone have anything they wanna talk about/discuss?

[outed wolf]

in the world where dya is a villager where are you going next

same if w

who are you most afraid of misclearing atm?

[staypositivefriend]

in the world where dya is a villager where are you going next

same if w

who are you most afraid of misclearing atm?

good questions

if dyachei is a villager then i will be mildly irked at myself for hardpushing on a villager all game, and then probably sheep (or rather, give heavy consideration to) dya's POE. i don't think that it would meaningfully change the current POE i have, but it would mean that the three central names being discussed on d2 (alison/amy/dyachei) were all villagers, and i would take another look at d2 to see if that knowledge makes anyone look worse retrospectively

if dya is a wolf then i will take it as confirmation that the game is still headed in a good trajectory and use dya's spew to lock down a solid POE that will solve the game even in a world where i get chopped

im the most afraid of misclearing you/bronana/dyslexion, basically in that exact order

[outed wolf]

who do you think the most unlikely w/w pairings are of those left?

[staypositivefriend]

nutella/dyachei probably not teamed. arete/outed wolf probably not teamed. there's probably some other obvious not W/W pairings but i dunno without re-reading the thread

[outed wolf]

how would you describe c4s game in general

what do you think of his 'godread' of you?

im kinda just trying to think of stuff to throw at the wall here lol

[nutella]

haven't had a ton of time or energy to spend on this since the beginning of the phase, and don't feel like it's super important, think we just flip dya and go from there

[staypositivefriend]

how would you describe c4s game in general

what do you think of his 'godread' of you?

im kinda just trying to think of stuff to throw at the wall here lol

c4's game is usually characterized by a high level of confidence, aggression, and a persistent perusal of specific reads that he firmly believes in. the main difference that i noticed in his wolf meta is that his reads tend to have less conviction overall and he's more focused on creating chaos than on putting the pieces of the game together

in every game i've played with c4 where we were both villagers, he figured out that i was town almost immediately, and then spent the entirety of the game hard-shielding me and explaining to other people why i was town. he was suspicious of me throughout a good portion of the game where i wolfed against him as well, so there is some truth to the idea that c4 is able to "godread" me. he's had a higher margin of accuracy for reading my alignment correctly more than nearly any other player

so, my townread on c4 in this game formulated early when he started out by being suspicious of me, only for him to organically shift into townreading me and doing the same type of "godread" stuff that he did in games when we were villagers together

i think that was fine reasoning to townread c4 for on d1 - but it's d4 now, and he has a lack of clearing interactions with both of the flipped wolves and he seems to have deflated entirely. if he's a villager then i need him to put in a smidge more effort, because i can't reasonably defend him or feel good about his alignment as things are, even though i want my early townread on him to be right, you know?

[staypositivefriend]

i saw the (1) notification on another tab and got excited that someone made a post right after me

but it was actually just me having this game open in two tabs and getting notified of my own post

tfw

[outed wolf]

Lmao that's happened to me a few times

And yeah understandable

Not sure what else I have to ask if anything

Feels like we are kinda in waiting room atm

[outed wolf]

Do you think there is much likelihood on the arete/vulgard team thing ?

[Marluxion]

I kinda dont want to believe it's arete vulgard but i could definitely see it as a possibility

the Arete Vulgard godrand getting fucked by a random jailkeep would be heartbreaking

[outed wolf]

Where's your head at marl

Where to after dya v/W

Who's your candidates for deepwolf

[Marluxion]

idk
it seems like everyone's wim is low, so my motivation to put in a lot of work is lacking too
not even a whole page in the 10 hours since i slept

prob go syn after dyachei if they are wolf
probably spf if dya is town unless dya has any specific direction they want us to go

[Marluxion]

if syn is town PROBABLY Arete but idfk
i think bronana is a wolf if both chloe and dyachei are town actually

[Syn]

idk
it seems like everyone's wim is low, so my motivation to put in a lot of work is lacking too
not even a whole page in the 10 hours since i slept

prob go syn after dyachei if they are wolf
probably spf if dya is town unless dya has any specific direction they want us to go