1984 Mafia [TOWN WINS]

[Gavial]

Also Esooa talked to creature again when creature said that.
So like....
There is legit 50% Esooa Traitor and 50% No Traitor

[Gavial]

Although I think it’s more like 60% Esooa and 40% No Traitor

[Gavial]

Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.

Yeah... there is Definitely a traitor because the 2 kills don’t really make sense as RNG.

Evidently the kills were never rng. They're a spectator.

Wait a spectator chooses the kills if there is no traitor?

[MacDougall]

Although I think it’s more like 60% Esooa and 40% No Traitor

I fear you may be right.

[MacDougall]

Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.

Yeah... there is Definitely a traitor because the 2 kills don’t really make sense as RNG.

Evidently the kills were never rng. They're a spectator.

Wait a spectator chooses the kills if there is no traitor?

Lol. Yes that's what it says.

[Esooa]

me and wiml are going to start connecting data/thinking of ideas for mafia related articles to write together. I am excited

[Esooa]

oh and I am town

[Made]

imo, it's not Esooa, if there is it's Mac or Gavial.

If there is a trator, they want us to vote sleep, but they don't want to seem too eagar to vote sleep. Gav and Mac both fit that MO

[MacDougall]

imo, it's not Esooa, if there is it's Mac or Gavial.

If there is a trator, they want us to vote sleep, but they don't want to seem too eagar to vote sleep. Gav and Mac both fit that MO

You don't even go here!

[Alison]

I wanted to write a flavor post but I am tired and out of energy.

[Alison]

You guys won since there is no Traitor. Nanook was controlling the NKs.

[Esooa]

well if you're town mafia is proibably lomo or no one

why is LC, Creature etc. etc. etc. town?

easy tone reads. Only thing creature has done is show up EoD1 and actually care. The rest are just easy reads though tbh

@MacDougall

[Esooa]

dab

[Alison]

https://discord.gg/DYV7ZcCj

[MacDougall]

Hooray!

[MacDougall]

Look @Gavial we chose right.

[MacDougall]

Tsk tsk tryna throw by voting for ppl.

[Creature]

Oh cool we did it. I was kinda afraid you'd all go for Esooa who I was obviously reading as town.

[Creature]

Wished I had read the book beforehand so I could better enjoy the flavor.

[CRichard]

Oh cool everyone wins?
My mis elimination was unfortunate, but hey a win is a win.

[Creature]

Sucks not being townier than the rest of the town

[CRichard]

Sucks not being townier than the rest of the town

Feels Bad Man.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Nice job everyone

Literally

[Gavial]

Nice job everyone

Literally

Aren’t you Traitor?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

[nutella]

Cool stuff

[Marluxion]

this was a game

[falcon45ca]

We won?


We won!!


Thanks for not listening to me errybody

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

It's pretty much always correct to sleep d3, good job with the win

[Long Con]

Oh wow, that's great! What a happy ending.

[Seanzie]

It's pretty much always correct to sleep d3, good job with the win

This is exactly what the traitor would say...

[Long Con]

Alison has approved these game banners!

[CRichard]

It's pretty much always correct to sleep d3, good job with the win

This is exactly what the traitor would say...

It aged well for sure LUL.

[CRichard]

this was a game

Sorry you got mis eliminated D1 Marl.
At least we won, that's what matters and yeah this game had activity problem.
Which sucks to say the least.

[Creature]

I've done some calculations on how to make a balanced game by random:

If town correctly assumes there's a traitor, their chance to win would be: (1 - 10/11 x 8/9 x 6/7 x 4/5) = 103/231. While if town correctly assumes there's no traitor, their chance to win is exactly 1. Therefore, assuming p is the chance for the setup to be traitorless and 1 - p is the chance there's a traitor:

(1 - p) x 103/231 = p x 1
103/231 - 103/231 x p = p
103/231 = 334/231 x p
p = 103/334

Therefore, the ideal distribution would be: 103/334 (30.84%) for traitorless and 231/335 (69.16%) for traitor setup. So if town ever settles on always sleeping D3, their EV will be 103/334 (30.84%). If town, on the other hand chooses to never sleep D3, their EV will be: 231/334 x 103/231 = 103/334 (30.84%).

[Long Con]

I've done some calculations on how to make a balanced game by random:

If town correctly assumes there's a traitor, their chance to win would be: (1 - 10/11 x 8/9 x 6/7 x 4/5) = 103/231. While if town correctly assumes there's no traitor, their chance to win is exactly 1. Therefore, assuming p is the chance for the setup to be traitorless and 1 - p is the chance there's a traitor:

(1 - p) x 103/231 = p x 1
103/231 - 103/231 x p = p
103/231 = 334/231 x p
p = 103/334

Therefore, the ideal distribution would be: 103/334 (30.84%) for traitorless and 231/335 (69.16%) for traitor setup. So if town ever settles on always sleeping D3, their EV will be 103/334 (30.84%). If town, on the other hand chooses to never sleep D3, their EV will be: 231/334 x 103/231 = 103/334 (30.84%).

I will take your word for it.

[Creature]

Though, there's a (1 - p) x (1 - 10/11 x 8/9) chance of game ending before D3. I'm feeling a little lazy to make calculations on that now.