Cindy Kate & Percy Date Night Mafia <3 [ENDGAME]

[MartinGG99]

Ultimately as much as I can think about it I have no answers or possible suggestions. To me, these hosts have put two 1-shot healers in the game as well as fancy mechanics such as the Cupid with JJJ + Gaival choosing one to die. They could have put anything.

Unless I have any clear idea of what happened in order to save gnome, and whether that was dependent on Gnome's role, I have no clue. Feels like an opportunity to bounce some crazed ideas off of.

Thinking about it more, if I try to force any meaning to it, I wonder if it was meant to tip Seanzie off. To me Seanzie may be the kind of player most likely to try and interpret it in some direction. He did get night-killed without the Poisoner knowing in the same night that Gnome got poisoned. But after a quick search there's basically nothing about Gnome from Seanzie's ISO of recent posts.

Anyways, I don't believe its a good idea to dwell on it anymore.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Martin not claiming the heal is not what I anticipated.

I’m at a friends house and will just roast on the game.

[Sloonei]

What’s happenin my dudes?

[Allcrab]

What’s happenin my dudes?

90% sure we just chop Mac and TSP then pop bottles otherwise not much.

[Sloonei]

What’s happenin my dudes?

90% sure we just chop Mac and TSP then pop bottles otherwise not much.

Interesting theory. Why’s that?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

How are we to contend with an unclaimed heal. I am befuddled. Also maybe a little high

[Sloonei]

JaggedJimmyDank

[Sloonei]

I did not heal gnome. Maybe it was Harry Potter-esque “love saved your life” spell.

[MartinGG99]

[snip]

The point of this was to see what Allcrab was thinking. Gave some time but they didn't choose to answer.

I was curious as to why they seem to be choosing who to watch based on poisoner rather than anything else, and felt that asking if they were considering mafia night-kills at all as a better question.

Nobody targeted mac last night.

Figured poisoner MO was to go after people on the fringe of the PoE which was kinda right they were a bit more direct than I expected and I guessed wrong, sorry.

I did have a mild look-through of those interactions earlier with regards to Mac. My current stance is that one of Made/Mac is mafia. GTH, as said before, it would be both of them.

It would surprise me if both were green. If Made somehow flips green though I will be putting more consideration into my mafia-hunting thoughts than I would if he flips red.

Regardless, I will look at Mac more in the future. Just more-so on Mac and others if Made flips green because atp town's in a problematic situation most likely.

I really struggle to understand how suddenly after going to sleep yesterday feeling sleepwalking as a member of the towncore suddenly almost everyone in the game has me in the POE with the exception of Made (which I find very strange for him in particular) and Esooa and TSP who both just subbed into the game and neither of whom can actually be mafia outside of crazy worlds (in Esooa's case). It 100% feels to me like opportunism based on the fact that Papa Jay decided Mac was a suspect. ​I must ask myself the question that if he did not do that, would you actually be pushing me as your primary POE suspect and the answer is exceedingly obviously no you would not be, because you had not been. I feel the exact same way about Alison. So I actually probably have my answer about who the mafia are.

Nobody targeted mac last night.

Figured poisoner MO was to go after people on the fringe of the PoE which was kinda right they were a bit more direct than I expected and I guessed wrong, sorry.

And yeah I am trying to get poisoner identity over wolves cuz that's gonna be WAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY harder to get if we gotta do it the old fashioned way.

I wanna vote martin today but out of respect for Alison's read I'll try made first.

This actually reads like a poisoner claim tbh.

[VOTE: Martin] aubergine

I don't get it. In the context of the above quotes Mac just says this and it has been stuck in my head ever since.

Its like the fact a few times on Day 5 I was suspecting Allcrab and explicitly said it doesn't mean anything to him and he just doesn't suggest any sort of world-building with it (such as arguing maybe I'm mafia and I know who poisoner is).

[MartinGG99]

Martin not claiming the heal is not what I anticipated.

I’m at a friends house and will just roast on the game.

dude the day I lie about my claim is the day I should be auto-executed

I don't think I've ever faked a claim as town in the (close to) 20-25 games of town I've been. It's just inconsistent with my persona.

[MartinGG99]

I even joked about how I couldn't really fake-claim as mafia in my last game as mafia:

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost4533074

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Garden Gnome how you alive tho bae

[Allcrab]

What’s happenin my dudes?

90% sure we just chop Mac and TSP then pop bottles otherwise not much.

Interesting theory. Why’s that?

last wolf kinda has to be between alison and mac and I don't understand alison making their PoE smaller I would think it more likely they would wanna keep it wider like mac

Martin's posting has been ultra reasonable so been feeling better there and the idea of having two 1 shot healers so just we get one heal almost makes sense to me and TSP's last post well let's just say they're either poisoner or lack the ability to infer things.

[Garden Gnome]

@Garden Gnome how you alive tho bae

it was either the power of love or it was a miracle. I can think of no other explanation.

[Allcrab]

I lowkey want JJJ and Gnome to be their own 3p faction they're getting away with murder in front of all of us.*

*=I don't actually think this mostly out of I think JJJ has stuck their neck out too far to be 3p and to be a wolf and talk this much and put this much work into what's been a losing game for wolves pretty much from the beginning is a level of caring about mafia I don't think I can fathom.

[Sloonei]

I lowkey want JJJ and Gnome to be their own 3p faction they're getting away with murder in front of all of us.*

*=I don't actually think this mostly out of I think JJJ has stuck their neck out too far to be 3p and to be a wolf and talk this much and put this much work into what's been a losing game for wolves pretty much from the beginning is a level of caring about mafia I don't think I can fathom.

Jay is the poisoner and a lost wolf who needed to find his lover on the mafia team.

[Alison]

The fact that I am not poisoned speaks well for Allcrab. Being investigative doesn't preclude being mafia.

Why would mafia have a watcher?

[Alison]

just based on the premise "one of alison/Mac is a mafia who bussed hard," Alison is the much more likely mafia

Why

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The fact that I am not poisoned speaks well for Allcrab. Being investigative doesn't preclude being mafia.

Why would mafia have a watcher?

Seen it before and implemented it myself in the past. Most obvious utility is to find cop-types and doctors.

[Alison]

Gnome is my scary poison zombie boo, unresolved and unknown. I do have a suspicion that she was healed by mafia to keep a mischop option on the board they otherwise would have lost to poison -- also would be why they don't kill me (us) apart from Nanook just being a sensible kill in his own right. Also possible Gnome herself is mafia -- we may need to rely on some faith reads here. It's comforting that Made was mafia so we don't [likely] have to contend with worrisome pairs anymore (e.g. Alison/Martin or Allcrab/Gnome). Allcrab's town read on Gnome looms large in this way.

I don't think mafia heals Gnome for mischop possibilities because Gnome has a townie claim (lover, which is unlikely to be mafia or 3P). I personally felt that Gnome was really townie yesterday and had the demeanour of a townie who was prepared to die. I'm not worried about Gnome.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@TonyStarkPrime @MacDougall can Allcrab be the poisoner given the Gnome confirmed I was targeted with an investigative ability? I’m clearly not poisoned. Please reconcile.

[Alison]

I think Allcrab and Gnome are town and I still have faith in Martin - specifically I think he hid the number of shots he had so he could surprise the poisoner, and this is a townie thing to do and saving Gnome is also townie.

This would leave Mac as mafia and TSP as poisoner. Mac has been exclusively trying to widen the POE at all costs today and is thus scummy. TSP has done nothing. Behavior wise they fit into my solve.

[Alison]

What was the rationale for watching me, Allcrab?

considering me explaining my rational yesterday I thought they'd switch it up and go after a villager.

My rationale keeps being right but I keep picking the wrong target lol.

@MacDougall do you see what I see

hmmm yeh

Please cut the shit with this ominous ooloolooing and say what you're saying -- both of you. It's Day 6.

Allcrab implies here that he knows the poisoner’s target despite the fact that this information is not available in thread nor had it even been particularly speculated on.

It seemed obvious to me that nanook was poisoned

[Alison]

The poison has been operating like clockwork for the past four night phases, that they miss a poison now with no roleblockers or disruptive roles in the game means they targeted the dead guy.

[Alison]

One reason to believe that Allcrab is straight town is the choice of nightkill. Nanook was confirmed town, but lots of people are (Jay, Sloonei, etc.) and he was sort of afk while other townies were much more active in solving than him. As far as I can tell he didn't have any non consensus reads so it's unlikely he was killed for reads.

The simplest explanation for this is that both the mafia team and the poisoner were trying to watcher-dodge, indicating they both feared Allcrab and thus he is town.

[Alison]

To me, these hosts have put two 1-shot healers

You didn't hide your shot?

[MacDougall]

Nanook would not have been my choice of kill. He was one of a small few people who considered me town.

[Alison]

If Martin didn't save Gnome then either it's something to do with the casual lover stuff or poisoner has a fake like Mac suggested. The first would be semi bastard given that neither lover seems to know anything about why Gnome survived so it would be a hidden mechanic, and the second would be confusing as there is no reason for poisoner to fake a poison there.

Maybe it's a property of the poisoner's role itself, ie. cannot kill someone who's in love, or whatever.

[Alison]

Actually maybe the poisoner faked poison onto Gnome to frame her for being mafia healed by a teammate.

[Alison]

Nanook would not have been my choice of kill. He was one of a small few people who considered me town.

Esooa also considered you town yesterday and was much more active solving wise than nanook. If we accept that the mafia went after a mason, Esooa makes more sense as the kill. Unless you are the mafia and wanting to keep her alive so she defends you and sus me. Or it's a complete watcher dodge in which case we should give you no credit for the nightkill target (and in which case Allcrab is spewed town).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don’t see Nanook stating a read on Mac in at least the last two day phases. I can only scan on mobile.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mac trying to convince me Alison fake poisoned herself is a little hard to take seriously.

[MacDougall]

I don’t see Nanook stating a read on Mac in at least the last two day phases. I can only scan on mobile.

He absolutely did. Guillo stated it.

[MacDougall]

And he also made no mention of me day 5 and pushed onto other people who aren't me. I have about 5 optimal kills ahead of Nanook to make. Including Esooa.

[MacDougall]

Nanook would not have been my choice of kill. He was one of a small few people who considered me town.

Esooa also considered you town yesterday and was much more active solving wise than nanook. If we accept that the mafia went after a mason, Esooa makes more sense as the kill. Unless you are the mafia and wanting to keep her alive so she defends you and sus me. Or it's a complete watcher dodge in which case we should give you no credit for the nightkill target (and in which case Allcrab is spewed town).

I believe Nanook was killed because he would have voted you or Martin over me.

[MacDougall]

Mac trying to convince me Alison fake poisoned herself is a little hard to take seriously.

It's Alison. Remember her as Gambit Demon? She is a 5D player.

[MartinGG99]

I have a feeling that Alison's handling of Me and Alison's handling of Mac just simply conflict. I've read through the ISO.

I also have an inkling they've been trying to be pockety. Just practically straight town-reading Mac and I on relatively equal levels for large lengths of the game (practically up until SoD5) without any pause or entertainment otherwise irks me. Yet the reasons for those town-reads are arguably quite different, from what I understand.

She town-read mac for, among other things, getting rid of scum.

@Alison what is mac’s alignment?

I think he's town. Not lock levels, but I'm pretty comfortable with slapping him into my town pile and moving on. He hasn't tried to wow us with an over-the-top Maccy display, he hasn't tried to pocket or bury me, and his pushes make sense from a town Mac perspective. (I had the same reaction as him to the Owner first post, and pushing JJJ his rival and Made the person he always suspects is in-character for Mac.) I don't get the feeling that he's fishing for an easy misexe with his Owner/Made pushes either. His posts theorizing that JJJ is using WIFOM and a shared history against him show enough depth of thought to satisfy me.

I got town-read for being Martin. But I have not really gotten rid of scum at all in this game. There's arguments to be made I've only helped scum/mafia. She also posited that I was TMI'ed as town, but I think we all know that doesn't remove Poisoner from the picture.

I am of two minds regarding Martin.

I strongly townread his play and the way he handled his claim was extremely townie. He claimed first without any pressure to do so, and if he is the mafia poison healer he would know that the town poison healer would CC him and make him look bad.

On the other hand it seems silly to have two poison healers since they'd both just heal the D2 poisoned person.

On the third hand there is something very strange going on with the poison this game because it has weird targeting this game and I don't know what to make of that. Which increases the chances that two poison healer makes sense somehow.

Martin is lock town never rescind.

Why?

Alison reps a godread on Martin so just sheep it.

Err, I mean good to know, would still like to see if for myself if it's something she can articulate.

I think this also TMIs Martin town. In fact I think if Martin was scum and a townie had claimed a bad godread on him Sonny would just be like "oh okay cool, I'll sheep it". Questioning the read and trying to force me to articulate specific reasoning suggests that Sonny was upset about the clear and wanted to try to convince me it wasn't as strong as I thought, or otherwise discredit my read on Martin.

My confidence that Martin is town is renewed.

Martin is obvious town.

Yet at some points of the ISO (or in the game in general) it feels as though she town-read both of us almost equally to some degree.

(Big quote)

Spoiler: show

Actvscenei
Allcrab
bad bunny
Garden Gnome
Guillotine
JaggedJimmyJay
lost monkey
MacDougall
Made
MartinGG99
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Sloonei
Seanzie
Tangrowth

I have strong reasons to eliminate the following players from consideration for the exe today: bunny (dies anyway), Guillotine (sufficiently townie via paranoia and dynamic play), JaggedJimmyJay (obvious town, likely spewed town by mafia), lost monkey (extremely credible and corroborated watcher claim, nutella tried to get him killed), MacDougall (buried both Sonny and nutella), MartinGG99 (because I say so), NANOOK (good interactions with nutella, tried to pressure Sloonei to make a shot when Sloonei had orange as a default shot but was considering other options), Sloonei (desperado duh), Seanzie (red checked Owner), Tangrowth (desperado duh)

That leaves:

Actvscenei
Allcrab
Garden Gnome
Made

Act is my top suspect since me and JJJ basically concluded that she had suspicious interactions with flipped mafia at the same time. Allcrab is probably the towniest person here because I think he has been townie on play today and looks very good if Act is mafia. Made seems to have been coasting by on being the counterwagon but Sonny's vote points towards something fishy going on in the D1 wagons. That's suspicious. I keep putting Gnome in my POE because frankly she won't get out but to be honest deep down I feel like she's erratic as either alignment and is probably sort of rand.

Act
Made
Gnome
Allcrab

Scummiest to towniest.

This is my solve. You guys have sold me on Made, congrats. (Sonny's vote helped.)

I don't feel great about this. I'm going to see how Mac has been handling Alison and I to see if I feel any better.

[Alison]

Nanook would not have been my choice of kill. He was one of a small few people who considered me town.

Esooa also considered you town yesterday and was much more active solving wise than nanook. If we accept that the mafia went after a mason, Esooa makes more sense as the kill. Unless you are the mafia and wanting to keep her alive so she defends you and sus me. Or it's a complete watcher dodge in which case we should give you no credit for the nightkill target (and in which case Allcrab is spewed town).

I believe Nanook was killed because he would have voted you or Martin over me.

Esooa was much more aggressive in scumreading me. She's also a mason - why not her?

[MacDougall]

@MartinGG99 where do you go next when I flip town?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Mac trying to convince me Alison fake poisoned herself is a little hard to take seriously.

It's Alison. Remember her as Gambit Demon? She is a 5D player.

I don’t doubt she’s capable of the strategy. I doubt it’s a thing in the first place.

[MacDougall]

Nanook would not have been my choice of kill. He was one of a small few people who considered me town.

Esooa also considered you town yesterday and was much more active solving wise than nanook. If we accept that the mafia went after a mason, Esooa makes more sense as the kill. Unless you are the mafia and wanting to keep her alive so she defends you and sus me. Or it's a complete watcher dodge in which case we should give you no credit for the nightkill target (and in which case Allcrab is spewed town).

I believe Nanook was killed because he would have voted you or Martin over me.

Esooa was much more aggressive in scumreading me. She's also a mason - why not her?

Higher chance to be watched. More of a force in the thread.

[Alison]

@MartinGG99 where do you go next when I flip town?

I'd like to posit the same question to you actually. Suppose you vote me out today and I flip town. What's your solve?

[MacDougall]

Mac trying to convince me Alison fake poisoned herself is a little hard to take seriously.

It's Alison. Remember her as Gambit Demon? She is a 5D player.

I don’t doubt she’s capable of the strategy. I doubt it’s a thing in the first place.

You must be unfamiliar with poison mechanics because being able to fake it is a common part of the role.

[MacDougall]

@MartinGG99 where do you go next when I flip town?

I'd like to posit the same question to you actually. Suppose you vote me out today and I flip town. What's your solve?

Re-evaluate everything off the flips. Find spew. I intend to do it before the end of this day at any rate.

[Alison]

Mac trying to convince me Alison fake poisoned herself is a little hard to take seriously.

It's Alison. Remember her as Gambit Demon? She is a 5D player.

I don’t doubt she’s capable of the strategy. I doubt it’s a thing in the first place.

You know what I really love to do as hostile 3P? Put myself in a prime position to be NKed and then give up a KP to clear myself from being poisoner at a phase of the game that everyone is hunting mafia.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’m not clear on why both Mac and Alison have dismissed me as a town read.

[MartinGG99]

@MartinGG99 where do you go next when I flip town?

I'm not entirely sure if I want you flipping today.

I do feel like something's off about both you and Alison being alive right now. There's likely one scum in there, and I want to find out.

With the very limited mischops we have, even after getting a large advantage over the mafia, I want to take time and consideration in this. I don't want town to lose just because of me deciding to not effort much.

[Alison]

Mac trying to convince me Alison fake poisoned herself is a little hard to take seriously.

It's Alison. Remember her as Gambit Demon? She is a 5D player.

I don’t doubt she’s capable of the strategy. I doubt it’s a thing in the first place.

You must be unfamiliar with poison mechanics because being able to fake it is a common part of the role.

To Mac's credit it is true that Gnome's survival suggests the presence of a fake poison. However, poisoners are not usually permitted to self target.

[Alison]

I’m not clear on why both Mac and Alison have dismissed me as a town read.

You're lover

[MacDougall]

I’m not clear on why both Mac and Alison have dismissed me as a town read.

You were cupid shot by the mafia.